AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied
Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. In maiden races, where late money has the best record, Algo 2's morning pick follows the live betting favourite once the pool is open. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.
| Track | Race | Model | New Top Pick | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CTX | 2 | Model Algo 2 (Ensemble) | #7 – Judy G | 2 scratch(es) |
| CTX | 2 | Model Weight set 2 | #7 – Judy G | 2 scratch(es) |
| CTX | 3 | Model Algo 1 | #5 – Super Mountaineers | 2 scratch(es) |
| CTX | 3 | Model Algo 2 (Ensemble) | #5 – Super Mountaineers | 2 scratch(es) |
| CTX | 3 | Model Weight set 2 | #5 – Super Mountaineers | 2 scratch(es) |
| CTX | 3 | Model Weight set 3 | #5 – Super Mountaineers | 2 scratch(es) |
Plays voided by scratches — these published value plays are officially scratched; win bets on them are refunds, so strike them from your card:
- Trifecta play: CT Race 3 — Goldeck (SCRATCHED)
Where the experts back our strongest pick today
In 3 of today's 8 races, the published handicappers landed on the same horse as Algo 2, our best-performing model. Over the last 90 days (4,777 graded races), the races where they agreed won 37.8% of the time against 29.4% where they did not.
Today's agreement races — CT 1, 5, 7.
Which horse the two agree on is part of Algo 2, included with Insider and above. The race numbers above are free to everyone: if you are playing these races, you now know the experts and our strongest model are pointing the same way.
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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
| Race 1 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,700 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 5Robbielikeshim (1/1) |
| Place: | 2Gabriel Seven (4/1) |
| Show: | 4Piccolo Diavolo (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Ridiculous (8/1), 3Bold Advance (12/1), 6Mon Gateau (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9Sir Liam (15/1), 8Bird Wildcat (15/1), 1Cayenne Creek (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 524736 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 453769182 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #4, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $13,300 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 12Adoncia (8/5) |
| Place: | 7Judy G (2/1) |
| Show: | 1Kelsey Hill Girl (9/5) |
| Other contenders: | 8Sister T (6/1), 6Caitlin Said Run (8/1), 10Morganite Rose (15/1), 5Jenny Wade (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 11Tolly's Bourbon (15/1), 9Super Wicked (15/1), 2Chabelita (15/1), 3La Comadre (20/1), 4Golden Spirit (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1217865 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 121765284119310 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #7, #1, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $20,500 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 7Goldeck (6/5) |
| Place: | 5Super Mountaineers (5/2) |
| Show: | 4Golden Boss Man (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3Revision (8/1), 2Mark Of Greatness (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Thunder Pass (15/1), 6John's Glory (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 754321 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7354216 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,600 | |
| ★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best. | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 2John's Notion (2/1) |
| Place: | 5George (9/5) |
| Show: | 1Bold Rock (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4King Kontie (8/1), 6Cano's Baby (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Cedar Runs Fiber (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 521463 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 524136 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $32,900 | |
| Win: | 1City Of Bling (7/5) |
| Place: | 6Scar Nose (5/1) |
| Show: | 4Ain't Dere No Mo (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7Ojin (5/1), 3Serendipitymonday (4/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Mahmoud's Cloud (15/1), 5Knocking Luck (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 146732 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1642735 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $35,300 | |
| ★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best. | |
| Win: | 1Gurney Halleck (3/1) |
| Place: | 6Saint Paddy's Day (2/1) |
| Show: | 8Easy Pass (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Knight Sage (9/2), 5Romantic Warrior (6/1), 4Fiber Proof (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Musical Standard (15/1), 2Barsoom (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 618754 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 16435872 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #8, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 1/8 Miles · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 4Zip Start (5/2) |
| Place: | 9God's Pride (3/1) |
| Show: | 6Skie's Music (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2Juba's Parade (4/1), 1Petty Perfect (6/1), 8Jeannette The Jet (15/1), 7Lona Lee (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Shewonttalktome (30/1), 10Somesugarnspice (30/1), 3Bully's Notion (30/1), 11Zero Degrees (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 496218 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4962817105311 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #9, #6, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,700 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 2Sophistry (2/1) |
| Place: | 7Yes To Love (5/2) |
| Show: | 4Over The Bull (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 1Shenadoah Sunrise (9/2), 6Lovely Odds (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Palacio (20/1), 3Moonshine Mama (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 274165 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2741653 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Charles Town Races — in-the-money rate
How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 253 graded races at Charles Town Races, 2026-09-10 to 2026-11-12.
In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.
Show the numbers
| Group | Win rate | Races |
|---|---|---|
| Our top pick | 75.1% | 253 |
| Morning-line favourite | 70.8% | 253 |
| Race 1 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,700 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 5Robbielikeshim (1/1) 28% · fair 5-2 underlay -62% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 4Piccolo Diavolo (10/1) 15% · fair 6-1 overlay +72% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 2Gabriel Seven (4/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -40% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 7Ridiculous (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 6Mon Gateau (10/1) 8% · fair 11-1, 3Bold Advance (12/1) 8% · fair 23-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 9Sir Liam (15/1) 7% · fair 13-1, 1Cayenne Creek (12/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -33%, 8Bird Wildcat (15/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -32% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 1 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 524763 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 453769182 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 2 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $13,300 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 7Judy G (2/1) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -32% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 1Kelsey Hill Girl (9/5) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -47% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 12Adoncia (8/5) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -60% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 6Caitlin Said Run (8/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -45%, 8Sister T (6/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -59%, 5Jenny Wade (12/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -47%, 9Super Wicked (15/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -44% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 2Chabelita (15/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -57%, 3La Comadre (20/1) 3% · fair 37-1 underlay -46%, 11Tolly's Bourbon (15/1) 2% · fair 41-1 underlay -64%, 10Morganite Rose (15/1) 2% · fair 83-2 underlay -64%, 4Golden Spirit (20/1) 1% · fair 159-2 underlay -75% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 2 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 7112865 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 121765284119310 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #12, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 3 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $20,500 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 5Super Mountaineers (5/2) 34% · fair 2-1 overlay +28% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 7Goldeck (6/5) 30% · fair 5-2 underlay -48% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 4Golden Boss Man (9/2) 16% · fair 11-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 3Revision (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 2Mark Of Greatness (6/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -59% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 1Thunder Pass (15/1) 2% · fair 56-1 underlay -73%, 6John's Glory (30/1) 1% · fair 123-1 underlay -76% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 3 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 754231 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 7354216 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 4 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,600 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 5George (9/5) 32% · fair 2-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 2John's Notion (2/1) 30% · fair 5-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 1Bold Rock (9/2) 16% · fair 11-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 4King Kontie (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 6Cano's Baby (5/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -59% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 3Cedar Runs Fiber (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -36% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 4 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 521643 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 524136 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 5 7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $32,900 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 1City Of Bling (7/5) 42% · fair 3-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 6Scar Nose (5/1) 15% · fair 6-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 7Ojin (5/1) 14% · fair 6-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 4Ain't Dere No Mo (7/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -44%, 3Serendipitymonday (4/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -65% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 2Mahmoud's Cloud (15/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -26%, 5Knocking Luck (30/1) 2% · fair 45-1 underlay -34% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 5 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 146732 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 1642735 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 6 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $35,300 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 1Gurney Halleck (3/1) 31% · fair 2-1 overlay +34% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 6Saint Paddy's Day (2/1) 27% · fair 5-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 7Knight Sage (9/2) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -37% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 8Easy Pass (4/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -50%, 5Romantic Warrior (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -39%, 4Fiber Proof (12/1) 4% · fair 21-1 underlay -44% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 3Musical Standard (15/1) 4% · fair 55-2 underlay -45%, 2Barsoom (30/1) 1% · fair 120-1 underlay -75% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 6 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🌧️ Off-track: 618754 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 16435872 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #7, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 7 1 1/8 Miles · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 4Zip Start (5/2) 27% · fair 5-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 2Juba's Parade (4/1) 19% · fair 9-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 6Skie's Music (9/2) 18% · fair 9-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 9God's Pride (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -39%, 1Petty Perfect (6/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -50%, 8Jeannette The Jet (15/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -36%, 7Lona Lee (12/1) 2% · fair 79-2 underlay -70% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 10Somesugarnspice (30/1) 2% · fair 119-2 underlay -50%, 5Shewonttalktome (30/1) 2% · fair 60-1 underlay -50%, 3Bully's Notion (30/1) 1% · fair 123-1 underlay -76%, 11Zero Degrees (30/1) 1% · fair 323-2 underlay -81% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Race 7 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🌧️ Off-track: 492617 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 4962817105311 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #6, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 8 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,700 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 2Sophistry (2/1) 47% · fair 1-1 overlay +75% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 7Yes To Love (5/2) 17% · fair 9-2 underlay -47% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 4Over The Bull (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -30% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 1Shenadoah Sunrise (9/2) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -47%, 6Lovely Odds (5/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -62% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 5Palacio (20/1) 1% · fair 73-1 underlay -73%, 3Moonshine Mama (30/1) 0% · fair 617-2 underlay -90% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Race 8 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🌧️ Off-track: 274165 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 2741653 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
| Race 1 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,700 | |
| Win: | 5Robbielikeshim (1/1) |
| Place: | 4Piccolo Diavolo (10/1) |
| Show: | 2Gabriel Seven (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6Mon Gateau (10/1), 7Ridiculous (8/1), 9Sir Liam (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Bold Advance (12/1), 1Cayenne Creek (12/1), 8Bird Wildcat (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 527469 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 453769182 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #2, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $13,300 | |
| Win: | 7Judy G (2/1) |
| Place: | 12Adoncia (8/5) |
| Show: | 1Kelsey Hill Girl (9/5) |
| Other contenders: | 8Sister T (6/1), 6Caitlin Said Run (8/1), 5Jenny Wade (12/1), 9Super Wicked (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 11Tolly's Bourbon (15/1), 10Morganite Rose (15/1), 2Chabelita (15/1), 3La Comadre (20/1), 4Golden Spirit (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1271865 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 121765284119310 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #12, #1, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $20,500 | |
| Win: | 7Goldeck (6/5) |
| Place: | 5Super Mountaineers (5/2) |
| Show: | 4Golden Boss Man (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3Revision (8/1), 2Mark Of Greatness (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Thunder Pass (15/1), 6John's Glory (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 754231 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7354216 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,600 | |
| Win: | 2John's Notion (2/1) |
| Place: | 5George (9/5) |
| Show: | 1Bold Rock (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4King Kontie (8/1), 6Cano's Baby (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Cedar Runs Fiber (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 251643 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 524136 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $32,900 | |
| Win: | 1City Of Bling (7/5) |
| Place: | 4Ain't Dere No Mo (7/2) |
| Show: | 6Scar Nose (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3Serendipitymonday (4/1), 7Ojin (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Mahmoud's Cloud (15/1), 5Knocking Luck (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 143672 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1642735 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #6, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $35,300 | |
| Win: | 1Gurney Halleck (3/1) |
| Place: | 6Saint Paddy's Day (2/1) |
| Show: | 8Easy Pass (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5Romantic Warrior (6/1), 7Knight Sage (9/2), 4Fiber Proof (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Musical Standard (15/1), 2Barsoom (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 618754 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 16435872 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #8, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 1/8 Miles · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000 | |
| Win: | 4Zip Start (5/2) |
| Place: | 9God's Pride (3/1) |
| Show: | 2Juba's Parade (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6Skie's Music (9/2), 1Petty Perfect (6/1), 8Jeannette The Jet (15/1), 7Lona Lee (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Shewonttalktome (30/1), 10Somesugarnspice (30/1), 3Bully's Notion (30/1), 11Zero Degrees (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 492617 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4962817105311 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #9, #2, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,700 | |
| Win: | 2Sophistry (2/1) |
| Place: | 7Yes To Love (5/2) |
| Show: | 4Over The Bull (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 1Shenadoah Sunrise (9/2), 6Lovely Odds (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Palacio (20/1), 3Moonshine Mama (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 274165 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2741653 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5, |
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ
Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.
| Race 1 | AI Exacta: #5 over #2 ($1 straight; box #5-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #5 over #4, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 2 | AI Exacta: #12 over #1 ($1 straight; box #12-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #7, #6, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 3 | AI Exacta: #7 over #5 ($1 straight; box #7-#5 for cover) Trifecta: #7 over #5, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 4 | AI Exacta: #5 over #2 ($1 straight; box #5-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #5, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 5 | AI Exacta: #1 over #6 ($1 straight; box #1-#6 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #6, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 6 | AI Exacta: #6 over #1 ($1 straight; box #6-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #6, #8, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 7 | AI Exacta: #4 over #9 ($1 straight; box #4-#9 for cover) Trifecta: #4 over #2, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 8 | AI Exacta: #2 over #7 ($1 straight; box #2-#7 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #7, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
| Kelly Edge Plays (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder)) Morning-line reliability: +0.43 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it) Weekend sizing: ×0.88 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged) Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake | |||||||
| Race | Horse | ML | Live | P(win) | Edge | ¼ Kelly | Bet on $ bankroll |
| 1 | 4Piccolo Diavolo | 10/1 | — | 10.6% | +16.4% | 0.41% | $0.41 |
| 7 | 10Somesugarnspice ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer | 30/1 | — | 2.2% | +-32.7% | 0.00% | $0.00 |
| TOTAL across 2 plays: | 0.4% | $0.41 | |||||
| Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly. ⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still. | |||||||
| 💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line. | |||||||
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
| Race 1 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,700 | |
| Win: | 5Robbielikeshim (1/1) |
| Place: | 6Mon Gateau (10/1) |
| Show: | 4Piccolo Diavolo (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 9Sir Liam (15/1), 2Gabriel Seven (4/1), 8Bird Wildcat (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7Ridiculous (8/1), 3Bold Advance (12/1), 1Cayenne Creek (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 526479 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 453769182 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #4, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $13,300 | |
| Win: | 12Adoncia (8/5) |
| Place: | 7Judy G (2/1) |
| Show: | 5Jenny Wade (12/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1Kelsey Hill Girl (9/5), 8Sister T (6/1), 6Caitlin Said Run (8/1), 2Chabelita (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 10Morganite Rose (15/1), 9Super Wicked (15/1), 3La Comadre (20/1), 11Tolly's Bourbon (15/1), 4Golden Spirit (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1271865 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 121765284119310 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #7, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $20,500 | |
| Win: | 7Goldeck (6/5) |
| Place: | 5Super Mountaineers (5/2) |
| Show: | 4Golden Boss Man (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3Revision (8/1), 2Mark Of Greatness (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Thunder Pass (15/1), 6John's Glory (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 754231 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7354216 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,600 | |
| Win: | 5George (9/5) |
| Place: | 2John's Notion (2/1) |
| Show: | 1Bold Rock (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6Cano's Baby (5/1), 3Cedar Runs Fiber (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4King Kontie (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 521643 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 524136 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $32,900 | |
| Win: | 1City Of Bling (7/5) |
| Place: | 6Scar Nose (5/1) |
| Show: | 4Ain't Dere No Mo (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3Serendipitymonday (4/1), 7Ojin (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Mahmoud's Cloud (15/1), 5Knocking Luck (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 143672 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1642735 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $35,300 | |
| Win: | 6Saint Paddy's Day (2/1) |
| Place: | 1Gurney Halleck (3/1) |
| Show: | 3Musical Standard (15/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8Easy Pass (4/1), 5Romantic Warrior (6/1), 7Knight Sage (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 4Fiber Proof (12/1), 2Barsoom (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 618753 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 16435872 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #3, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 1/8 Miles · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000 | |
| Win: | 4Zip Start (5/2) |
| Place: | 9God's Pride (3/1) |
| Show: | 1Petty Perfect (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2Juba's Parade (4/1), 6Skie's Music (9/2), 8Jeannette The Jet (15/1), 7Lona Lee (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Shewonttalktome (30/1), 10Somesugarnspice (30/1), 3Bully's Notion (30/1), 11Zero Degrees (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 492617 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4962817105311 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #9, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,700 | |
| Win: | 2Sophistry (2/1) |
| Place: | 7Yes To Love (5/2) |
| Show: | 4Over The Bull (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6Lovely Odds (5/1), 1Shenadoah Sunrise (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 5Palacio (20/1), 3Moonshine Mama (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 274165 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2741653 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
| Race 1 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,700 | |
| Win: | 5Robbielikeshim (1/1) |
| Place: | 4Piccolo Diavolo (10/1) |
| Show: | 2Gabriel Seven (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Ridiculous (8/1), 9Sir Liam (15/1), 6Mon Gateau (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Bold Advance (12/1), 8Bird Wildcat (15/1), 1Cayenne Creek (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 524763 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 453769182 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $13,300 | |
| Win: | 1Kelsey Hill Girl (9/5) |
| Place: | 7Judy G (2/1) |
| Show: | 6Caitlin Said Run (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8Sister T (6/1), 12Adoncia (8/5), 9Super Wicked (15/1), 5Jenny Wade (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 11Tolly's Bourbon (15/1), 2Chabelita (15/1), 10Morganite Rose (15/1), 3La Comadre (20/1), 4Golden Spirit (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1127865 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 121765284119310 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #6, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $20,500 | |
| Win: | 7Goldeck (6/5) |
| Place: | 5Super Mountaineers (5/2) |
| Show: | 4Golden Boss Man (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3Revision (8/1), 2Mark Of Greatness (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Thunder Pass (15/1), 6John's Glory (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 754231 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7354216 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,600 | |
| Win: | 2John's Notion (2/1) |
| Place: | 5George (9/5) |
| Show: | 1Bold Rock (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3Cedar Runs Fiber (10/1), 6Cano's Baby (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4King Kontie (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 251643 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 524136 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $32,900 | |
| Win: | 1City Of Bling (7/5) |
| Place: | 6Scar Nose (5/1) |
| Show: | 4Ain't Dere No Mo (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3Serendipitymonday (4/1), 7Ojin (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Mahmoud's Cloud (15/1), 5Knocking Luck (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 146372 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1642735 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $35,300 | |
| Win: | 1Gurney Halleck (3/1) |
| Place: | 6Saint Paddy's Day (2/1) |
| Show: | 8Easy Pass (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5Romantic Warrior (6/1), 4Fiber Proof (12/1), 3Musical Standard (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7Knight Sage (9/2), 2Barsoom (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 618754 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 16435872 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #8, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 1/8 Miles · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000 | |
| Win: | 4Zip Start (5/2) |
| Place: | 2Juba's Parade (4/1) |
| Show: | 6Skie's Music (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 1Petty Perfect (6/1), 9God's Pride (3/1), 7Lona Lee (12/1), 8Jeannette The Jet (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Shewonttalktome (30/1), 10Somesugarnspice (30/1), 3Bully's Notion (30/1), 11Zero Degrees (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 492617 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4962817105311 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,700 | |
| Win: | 2Sophistry (2/1) |
| Place: | 7Yes To Love (5/2) |
| Show: | 4Over The Bull (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 1Shenadoah Sunrise (9/2), 6Lovely Odds (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Palacio (20/1), 3Moonshine Mama (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 274165 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2741653 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1, |
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ
Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.
| Pick 3 R2-4 | R2: #7,#1,#12 (68%) / R3: #5,#7 (64%) / R4: #5,#2 (62%) $12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27% |
| Pick 3 R3-5 | R3: #5,#7 (64%) / R4: #5,#2 (62%) / R5: #1,#6,#7 (71%) $12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 28% |
| Pick 3 R4-6 | R4: #5,#2 (62%) / R5: #1,#6,#7 (71%) / R6: #1,#6,#7 (71%) $18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 31% |
| Pick 3 R6-8 | R6: #1,#6,#7 (71%) / R7: #4,#2,#6 (64%) / R8: #2,#7 (64%) $18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29% |
| Pick 4 R2-5 | R2: #7,#1,#12 (68%) / R3: #5,#7 (64%) / R4: #5,#2 (62%) / R5: #1,#6,#7 (71%) $36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19% |
| Pick 4 R3-6 | R3: #5,#7 (64%) / R4: #5,#2 (62%) / R5: #1,#6,#7 (71%) / R6: #1,#6,#7 (71%) $36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 20% |
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
| ADONCIA | AIN'T DERE NO MO | BARSOOM | BIRD WILDCAT | BOLD ADVANCE |
| BULLY'S NOTION | CAITLIN SAID RUN | CANO'S BABY | CAYENNE CREEK | CEDAR RUNS FIBER |
| CITY OF BLING | EASY PASS | FIBER PROOF | GABRIEL SEVEN | GEORGE |
| GOLDECK | GOLDEN BOSS MAN | GOLDEN SPIRIT | GURNEY HALLECK | JEANNETTE THE JET |
| JOHN'S GLORY | JOHN'S NOTION | JUBA'S PARADE | JUDY G | KELSEY HILL GIRL |
| KNIGHT SAGE | KNOCKING LUCK | LA COMADRE | LONA LEE | LOVELY ODDS |
| MARK OF GREATNESS | MON GATEAU | MOONSHINE MAMA | MORGANITE ROSE | MUSICAL STANDARD |
| OVER THE BULL | PALACIO | PETTY PERFECT | PICCOLO DIAVOLO | REVISION |
| ROBBIELIKESHIM | ROMANTIC WARRIOR | SAINT PADDY'S DAY | SCAR NOSE | SERENDIPITYMONDAY |
| SHEWONTTALKTOME | SIR LIAM | SISTER T | SKIE'S MUSIC | SOMESUGARNSPICE |
| SUPER MOUNTAINEERS | SUPER WICKED | THUNDER PASS | TOLLY'S BOURBON | YES TO LOVE |
| ZIP START |
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