Posted inAnalysis Picks

Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Churchill Downs, November 1, 2026

No CommentsPosted inAnalysis, Picks


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $72,000
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Soap Note (3/1)
Place:7Down Time (2/1)
Show:4Midnight Commander (4/1)
Other contenders:6Ultimit Warrior (8/1), 5Jackies Einor (5/1)
Rest of field:1Glenadean (6/1), 3Just Plain Eugene (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 724561
🎯 Longshots: 7241563
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $58,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Ashes And Diamonds (3/1)
Place:3Menkaure (2/1)
Show:6Diagram (7/2)
Other contenders:7Shanett (12/1), 1Miss Clarke (5/1)
Rest of field:4Ashkenazi (10/1), 5Miss Pierre (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 236174
🎯 Longshots: 7426351
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:8Love A Warrior (4/5)
Place:3Take Charge Beach (8/1)
Show:1Rupp (6/1)
Other contenders:5Captivate (9/2), 9Fire Marshal (10/1), 4Kendom (20/1)
Rest of field:7Kalapaki Point (15/1), 2Epic Road (20/1), 6Chief Ball (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 813597
🎯 Longshots: 839514276
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Windsock (7/2)
Place:2Good Hand (4/1)
Show:8Concrete Overlay (6/1)
Other contenders:3Power Of Vino (5/1), 7Mo Reviews (5/1), 6Asher Dasher (6/1)
Rest of field:4Mambo Man (15/1), 9Captain Call (12/1), 10Army Run (20/1), 1Faraz (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 528376
🎯 Longshots: 52378496101
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #8, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $62,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Culprit (2/1)
Place:7Greers Ferry (3/1)
Show:8Executor (5/1)
Other contenders:2Final Thoughts (6/1), 4Surfin' M (8/1), 9Strummin (10/1)
Rest of field:3Anglican (15/1), 1Bagg O Time (20/1), 10Impavido (20/1), 5Triple Max (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 678249
🎯 Longshots: 67429831105
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 1/8 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:11The Look (9/5)
Place:15Gimme Some Lovin (7/2)
Show:4Elida's Angel (9/2)
Other contenders:13Marble Arch (6/1), 7Eenymeanymightymo (10/1), 2Twinklee (15/1), 3Eleonora (12/1), 10Copycat (8/1)
Rest of field:9Cowgirl Paradise (15/1), 1Indomiknow (6/1), 8Got What I Got (20/1), 6White Star Line (20/1), 16Ghosts Lil Secret (20/1), 12Valedora (15/1), 5Thirteen Roses (30/1), 14Take The Helm (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1115413710
🎯 Longshots: 11471513210312114986165
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #15, #4, #13  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $45,000
Win:6Gardiner (6/5)
Place:8Social Hour (4/1)
Show:7Brother Rice (5/1)
Other contenders:9Decatur Street (8/1), 3League Of Legends (15/1), 4Optimal Courage (8/1)
Rest of field:1Powerized (20/1), 10One Cool Dude (15/1), 5Stargazzers Dream (30/1), 2El Michoacano (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 687943
🎯 Longshots: 69738410152
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #7, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:7Kaykay (2/1)
Place:5In Total Awe (3/1)
Show:2Ready Comete (7/2)
Other contenders:6Glory Me (4/1), 3Feminism (12/1), 1That's A Benjamin (10/1)
Rest of field:8Rose Alabama (15/1), 4Feasible (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 752613
🎯 Longshots: 75631284
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:3Hazy Horizon (5/2)
Place:6Foolin (9/2)
Show:7Twillo (7/2)
Other contenders:4Timelapse (8/1), 1Now He's Gone (6/1), 9Mckeonville (5/1)
Rest of field:2Yogesh (15/1), 5Kiss The Medal (15/1), 8Naxian (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 367914
🎯 Longshots: 379614582
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $72,000
Win:2Soap Note (3/1) 39% · fair 3-2 overlay +94%
Place:6Ultimit Warrior (8/1) 20% · fair 4-1 overlay +100%
Show:7Down Time (2/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -74%
Other contenders:4Midnight Commander (4/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -56%, 1Glenadean (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -42%
Rest of field:5Jackies Einor (5/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -66%, 3Just Plain Eugene (15/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -37%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Soap Note — 39.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Soap Note39.3% ◀Ultimit Warrior — 20.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Ultimit Warrior20.0%Down Time — 11.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Down Time11.6%Midnight Commander — 9.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Midnight Commander9.8%Glenadean — 8.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Glenadean8.8%Jackies Einor — 6.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Jackies Einor6.4%Just Plain Eugene — 4.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Just Plain Eugene4.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Soap Note39.3%3/1
Ultimit Warrior20.0%8/1
Down Time11.6%2/1
Midnight Commander9.8%4/1
Glenadean8.8%6/1
Jackies Einor6.4%5/1
Just Plain Eugene4.0%15/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSoap Note: model 39.3% vs market 19.7% (+19.5 points)Soap Note+19.5Ultimit Warrior: model 20.0% vs market 8.8% (+11.3 points)Ultimit Warrior+11.3Down Time: model 11.6% vs market 26.3% (-14.7 points)Down Time-14.7Midnight Commander: model 9.8% vs market 15.8% (-6.0 points)Midnight Commander-6.0Glenadean: model 8.8% vs market 11.3% (-2.4 points)Glenadean-2.4Jackies Einor: model 6.4% vs market 13.2% (-6.8 points)Jackies Einor-6.8Just Plain Eugene: model 4.0% vs market 4.9% (-0.9 points)Just Plain Eugene-0.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Soap Note39.3%19.7%+19.5
Ultimit Warrior20.0%8.8%+11.3
Down Time11.6%26.3%-14.7
Midnight Commander9.8%15.8%-6.0
Glenadean8.8%11.3%-2.4
Jackies Einor6.4%13.2%-6.8
Just Plain Eugene4.0%4.9%-0.9
🌧️ Off-track: 274651
🎯 Longshots: 7241563
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $58,000
Win:2Ashes And Diamonds (3/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Place:6Diagram (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:3Menkaure (2/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -63%
Other contenders:1Miss Clarke (5/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -27%, 7Shanett (12/1) 13% · fair 7-1 overlay +75%
Rest of field:4Ashkenazi (10/1) 10% · fair 19-2, 5Miss Pierre (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -28%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Ashes And Diamonds — 23.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Ashes And Diamonds23.3% ◀Diagram — 17.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Diagram17.9%Menkaure — 15.5% win probability, morning line 2/1Menkaure15.5%Miss Clarke — 12.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Miss Clarke12.7%Shanett — 12.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Shanett12.7%Ashkenazi — 9.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Ashkenazi9.6%Miss Pierre — 8.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Miss Pierre8.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Ashes And Diamonds23.3%3/1
Diagram17.9%3.5/1
Menkaure15.5%2/1
Miss Clarke12.7%5/1
Shanett12.7%12/1
Ashkenazi9.6%10/1
Miss Pierre8.2%8/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherAshes And Diamonds: model 23.3% vs market 20.0% (+3.3 points)Ashes And Diamonds+3.3Diagram: model 17.9% vs market 17.8% (+0.2 points)Diagram+0.2Menkaure: model 15.5% vs market 26.6% (-11.1 points)Menkaure-11.1Miss Clarke: model 12.7% vs market 13.3% (-0.6 points)Miss Clarke-0.6Shanett: model 12.7% vs market 6.1% (+6.6 points)Shanett+6.6Ashkenazi: model 9.6% vs market 7.3% (+2.3 points)Ashkenazi+2.3Miss Pierre: model 8.2% vs market 8.9% (-0.7 points)Miss Pierre-0.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Ashes And Diamonds23.3%20.0%+3.3
Diagram17.9%17.8%+0.2
Menkaure15.5%26.6%-11.1
Miss Clarke12.7%13.3%-0.6
Shanett12.7%6.1%+6.6
Ashkenazi9.6%7.3%+2.3
Miss Pierre8.2%8.9%-0.7
🌧️ Off-track: 236175
🎯 Longshots: 7426351
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:8Love A Warrior (4/5) 60% · fair 3-5
Place:3Take Charge Beach (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Show:1Rupp (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -33%
Other contenders:9Fire Marshal (10/1) 8% · fair 12-1, 5Captivate (9/2) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -69%, 4Kendom (20/1) 1% · fair 85-1 underlay -76%
Rest of field:7Kalapaki Point (15/1) 1% · fair 88-1 underlay -83%, 2Epic Road (20/1) 1% · fair 123-1 underlay -84%, 6Chief Ball (50/1) 0% · fair 283-1 underlay -82%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Love A Warrior — 60.3% win probability, morning line 0.8/1Love A Warrior60.3% ◀Take Charge Beach — 12.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Take Charge Beach12.0%Rupp — 10.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Rupp10.1%Fire Marshal — 7.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Fire Marshal7.8%Captivate — 6.4% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Captivate6.4%Kendom — 1.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Kendom1.2%Kalapaki Point — 1.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Kalapaki Point1.1%Epic Road — 0.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Epic Road0.8%Chief Ball — 0.4% win probability, morning line 50/1Chief Ball0.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Love A Warrior60.3%0.8/1
Take Charge Beach12.0%8/1
Rupp10.1%6/1
Fire Marshal7.8%10/1
Captivate6.4%4.5/1
Kendom1.2%20/1
Kalapaki Point1.1%15/1
Epic Road0.8%20/1
Chief Ball0.4%50/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherLove A Warrior: model 60.3% vs market 44.1% (+16.2 points)Love A Warrior+16.2Take Charge Beach: model 12.0% vs market 8.8% (+3.1 points)Take Charge Beach+3.1Rupp: model 10.1% vs market 11.3% (-1.3 points)Rupp-1.3Fire Marshal: model 7.8% vs market 7.2% (+0.6 points)Fire Marshal+0.6Captivate: model 6.4% vs market 14.4% (-8.0 points)Captivate-8.0Kendom: model 1.2% vs market 3.8% (-2.6 points)Kendom-2.6Kalapaki Point: model 1.1% vs market 5.0% (-3.8 points)Kalapaki Point-3.8Epic Road: model 0.8% vs market 3.8% (-3.0 points)Epic Road-3.0Chief Ball: model 0.4% vs market 1.6% (-1.2 points)Chief Ball-1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Love A Warrior60.3%44.1%+16.2
Take Charge Beach12.0%8.8%+3.1
Rupp10.1%11.3%-1.3
Fire Marshal7.8%7.2%+0.6
Captivate6.4%14.4%-8.0
Kendom1.2%3.8%-2.6
Kalapaki Point1.1%5.0%-3.8
Epic Road0.8%3.8%-3.0
Chief Ball0.4%1.6%-1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 851397
🎯 Longshots: 839514276
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #1, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:5Windsock (7/2) 22% · fair 7-2
Place:7Mo Reviews (5/1) 14% · fair 13-2
Show:2Good Hand (4/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -39%
Other contenders:8Concrete Overlay (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 3Power Of Vino (5/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -39%, 6Asher Dasher (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -34%
Rest of field:9Captain Call (12/1) 6% · fair 29-2, 4Mambo Man (15/1) 6% · fair 31-2, 10Army Run (20/1) 4% · fair 53-2, 1Faraz (30/1) 1% · fair 87-1 underlay -66%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Windsock — 22.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Windsock22.0% ◀Mo Reviews — 13.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Mo Reviews13.7%Good Hand — 13.2% win probability, morning line 4/1Good Hand13.2%Concrete Overlay — 13.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Concrete Overlay13.1%Power Of Vino — 10.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Power Of Vino10.8%Asher Dasher — 10.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Asher Dasher10.0%Captain Call — 6.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Captain Call6.4%Mambo Man — 6.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Mambo Man6.0%Army Run — 3.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Army Run3.6%Faraz — 1.1% win probability, morning line 30/1Faraz1.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Windsock22.0%3.5/1
Mo Reviews13.7%5/1
Good Hand13.2%4/1
Concrete Overlay13.1%6/1
Power Of Vino10.8%5/1
Asher Dasher10.0%6/1
Captain Call6.4%12/1
Mambo Man6.0%15/1
Army Run3.6%20/1
Faraz1.1%30/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherWindsock: model 22.0% vs market 17.6% (+4.4 points)Windsock+4.4Mo Reviews: model 13.7% vs market 13.2% (+0.5 points)Mo Reviews+0.5Good Hand: model 13.2% vs market 15.9% (-2.7 points)Good Hand-2.7Concrete Overlay: model 13.1% vs market 11.3% (+1.8 points)Concrete Overlay+1.8Power Of Vino: model 10.8% vs market 13.2% (-2.4 points)Power Of Vino-2.4Asher Dasher: model 10.0% vs market 11.3% (-1.4 points)Asher Dasher-1.4Captain Call: model 6.4% vs market 6.1% (+0.3 points)Captain Call+0.3Mambo Man: model 6.0% vs market 5.0% (+1.1 points)Mambo Man+1.1Army Run: model 3.6% vs market 3.8% (-0.2 points)Army Run-0.2Faraz: model 1.1% vs market 2.6% (-1.4 points)Faraz-1.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Windsock22.0%17.6%+4.4
Mo Reviews13.7%13.2%+0.5
Good Hand13.2%15.9%-2.7
Concrete Overlay13.1%11.3%+1.8
Power Of Vino10.8%13.2%-2.4
Asher Dasher10.0%11.3%-1.4
Captain Call6.4%6.1%+0.3
Mambo Man6.0%5.0%+1.1
Army Run3.6%3.8%-0.2
Faraz1.1%2.6%-1.4
🌧️ Off-track: 527836
🎯 Longshots: 52378496101
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #2, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $62,000
Win:6Culprit (2/1) 28% · fair 5-2
Place:7Greers Ferry (3/1) 21% · fair 4-1
Show:8Executor (5/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:2Final Thoughts (6/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -31%, 9Strummin (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -26%, 4Surfin' M (8/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -49%
Rest of field:1Bagg O Time (20/1) 4% · fair 22-1, 3Anglican (15/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -36%, 10Impavido (20/1) 2% · fair 103-2 underlay -61%, 5Triple Max (30/1) 1% · fair 89-1 underlay -66%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Culprit — 27.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Culprit27.6% ◀Greers Ferry — 20.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Greers Ferry20.7%Executor — 17.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Executor17.0%Final Thoughts — 10.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Final Thoughts10.3%Strummin — 6.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Strummin6.9%Surfin' M — 6.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Surfin' M6.0%Bagg O Time — 4.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Bagg O Time4.4%Anglican — 4.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Anglican4.1%Impavido — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Impavido1.9%Triple Max — 1.1% win probability, morning line 30/1Triple Max1.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Culprit27.6%2/1
Greers Ferry20.7%3/1
Executor17.0%5/1
Final Thoughts10.3%6/1
Strummin6.9%10/1
Surfin' M6.0%8/1
Bagg O Time4.4%20/1
Anglican4.1%15/1
Impavido1.9%20/1
Triple Max1.1%30/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCulprit: model 27.6% vs market 25.9% (+1.6 points)Culprit+1.6Greers Ferry: model 20.7% vs market 19.5% (+1.2 points)Greers Ferry+1.2Executor: model 17.0% vs market 13.0% (+4.1 points)Executor+4.1Final Thoughts: model 10.3% vs market 11.1% (-0.8 points)Final Thoughts-0.8Strummin: model 6.9% vs market 7.1% (-0.2 points)Strummin-0.2Surfin' M: model 6.0% vs market 8.6% (-2.6 points)Surfin' M-2.6Bagg O Time: model 4.4% vs market 3.7% (+0.6 points)Bagg O Time+0.6Anglican: model 4.1% vs market 4.9% (-0.8 points)Anglican-0.8Impavido: model 1.9% vs market 3.7% (-1.8 points)Impavido-1.8Triple Max: model 1.1% vs market 2.5% (-1.4 points)Triple Max-1.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Culprit27.6%25.9%+1.6
Greers Ferry20.7%19.5%+1.2
Executor17.0%13.0%+4.1
Final Thoughts10.3%11.1%-0.8
Strummin6.9%7.1%-0.2
Surfin' M6.0%8.6%-2.6
Bagg O Time4.4%3.7%+0.6
Anglican4.1%4.9%-0.8
Impavido1.9%3.7%-1.8
Triple Max1.1%2.5%-1.4
🌧️ Off-track: 678249
🎯 Longshots: 67429831105
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 1/8 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:11The Look (9/5) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -50%
Place:15Gimme Some Lovin (7/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:4Elida's Angel (9/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -31%
Other contenders:13Marble Arch (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 7Eenymeanymightymo (10/1) 10% · fair 17-2, 10Copycat (8/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -58%, 2Twinklee (15/1) 5% · fair 39-2, 3Eleonora (12/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -65%
Rest of field:1Indomiknow (6/1) 2% · fair 40-1 underlay -85%, 9Cowgirl Paradise (15/1) 2% · fair 93-2 underlay -68%, 6White Star Line (20/1) 1% · fair 76-1 underlay -74%, 5Thirteen Roses (30/1) 1% · fair 100-1 underlay -70%, 8Got What I Got (20/1) 1% · fair 111-1 underlay -82%, 14Take The Helm (10/1) 1% · fair 124-1 underlay -92%, 16Ghosts Lil Secret (20/1) 1% · fair 257-2 underlay -84%, 12Valedora (15/1) 1% · fair 275-2 underlay -89%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

The Look — 21.8% win probability, morning line 1.8/1The Look21.8% ◀Gimme Some Lovin — 20.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Gimme Some Lovin20.2%Elida'S Angel — 13.4% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Elida'S Angel13.4%Marble Arch — 11.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Marble Arch11.7%Eenymeanymightymo — 10.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Eenymeanymightymo10.3%Copycat — 5.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Copycat5.0%Twinklee — 4.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Twinklee4.8%Eleonora — 2.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Eleonora2.8%Indomiknow — 2.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Indomiknow2.4%Cowgirl Paradise — 2.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Cowgirl Paradise2.1%White Star Line — 1.3% win probability, morning line 20/1White Star Line1.3%Thirteen Roses — 1.0% win probability, morning line 30/1Thirteen Roses1.0%Got What I Got — 0.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Got What I Got0.9%Take The Helm — 0.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Take The Helm0.8%Ghosts Lil Secret — 0.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Ghosts Lil Secret0.8%Valedora — 0.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Valedora0.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
The Look21.8%1.8/1
Gimme Some Lovin20.2%3.5/1
Elida'S Angel13.4%4.5/1
Marble Arch11.7%6/1
Eenymeanymightymo10.3%10/1
Copycat5.0%8/1
Twinklee4.8%15/1
Eleonora2.8%12/1
Indomiknow2.4%6/1
Cowgirl Paradise2.1%15/1
White Star Line1.3%20/1
Thirteen Roses1.0%30/1
Got What I Got0.9%20/1
Take The Helm0.8%10/1
Ghosts Lil Secret0.8%20/1
Valedora0.7%15/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherThe Look: model 21.8% vs market 20.1% (+1.7 points)The Look+1.7Gimme Some Lovin: model 20.2% vs market 12.5% (+7.8 points)Gimme Some Lovin+7.8Elida'S Angel: model 13.4% vs market 10.2% (+3.1 points)Elida'S Angel+3.1Marble Arch: model 11.7% vs market 8.0% (+3.6 points)Marble Arch+3.6Eenymeanymightymo: model 10.3% vs market 5.1% (+5.2 points)Eenymeanymightymo+5.2Copycat: model 5.0% vs market 6.2% (-1.3 points)Copycat-1.3Twinklee: model 4.8% vs market 3.5% (+1.3 points)Twinklee+1.3Eleonora: model 2.8% vs market 4.3% (-1.5 points)Eleonora-1.5Indomiknow: model 2.4% vs market 8.0% (-5.6 points)Indomiknow-5.6Cowgirl Paradise: model 2.1% vs market 3.5% (-1.4 points)Cowgirl Paradise-1.4White Star Line: model 1.3% vs market 2.7% (-1.4 points)White Star Line-1.4Thirteen Roses: model 1.0% vs market 1.8% (-0.8 points)Thirteen Roses-0.8Got What I Got: model 0.9% vs market 2.7% (-1.8 points)Got What I Got-1.8Take The Helm: model 0.8% vs market 5.1% (-4.3 points)Take The Helm-4.3Ghosts Lil Secret: model 0.8% vs market 2.7% (-1.9 points)Ghosts Lil Secret-1.9Valedora: model 0.7% vs market 3.5% (-2.8 points)Valedora-2.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
The Look21.8%20.1%+1.7
Gimme Some Lovin20.2%12.5%+7.8
Elida'S Angel13.4%10.2%+3.1
Marble Arch11.7%8.0%+3.6
Eenymeanymightymo10.3%5.1%+5.2
Copycat5.0%6.2%-1.3
Twinklee4.8%3.5%+1.3
Eleonora2.8%4.3%-1.5
Indomiknow2.4%8.0%-5.6
Cowgirl Paradise2.1%3.5%-1.4
White Star Line1.3%2.7%-1.4
Thirteen Roses1.0%1.8%-0.8
Got What I Got0.9%2.7%-1.8
Take The Helm0.8%5.1%-4.3
Ghosts Lil Secret0.8%2.7%-1.9
Valedora0.7%3.5%-2.8
🌧️ Off-track: 111541371
🎯 Longshots: 11471513210312114986165
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #15, #4, #13  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $45,000
Win:6Gardiner (6/5) 37% · fair 3-2 underlay -30%
Place:7Brother Rice (5/1) 19% · fair 9-2
Show:8Social Hour (4/1) 18% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:9Decatur Street (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 3League Of Legends (15/1) 5% · fair 35-2, 10One Cool Dude (15/1) 4% · fair 55-2 underlay -45%
Rest of field:4Optimal Courage (8/1) 3% · fair 73-2 underlay -78%, 1Powerized (20/1) 2% · fair 91-2 underlay -56%, 5Stargazzers Dream (30/1) 2% · fair 107-2 underlay -44%, 2El Michoacano (30/1) 1% · fair 85-1 underlay -65%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Gardiner — 36.9% win probability, morning line 1.2/1Gardiner36.9% ◀Brother Rice — 19.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Brother Rice19.0%Social Hour — 18.2% win probability, morning line 4/1Social Hour18.2%Decatur Street — 9.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Decatur Street9.2%League Of Legends — 5.4% win probability, morning line 15/1League Of Legends5.4%One Cool Dude — 3.5% win probability, morning line 15/1One Cool Dude3.5%Optimal Courage — 2.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Optimal Courage2.7%Powerized — 2.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Powerized2.2%Stargazzers Dream — 1.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Stargazzers Dream1.8%El Michoacano — 1.2% win probability, morning line 30/1El Michoacano1.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Gardiner36.9%1.2/1
Brother Rice19.0%5/1
Social Hour18.2%4/1
Decatur Street9.2%8/1
League Of Legends5.4%15/1
One Cool Dude3.5%15/1
Optimal Courage2.7%8/1
Powerized2.2%20/1
Stargazzers Dream1.8%30/1
El Michoacano1.2%30/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGardiner: model 36.9% vs market 35.5% (+1.4 points)Gardiner+1.4Brother Rice: model 19.0% vs market 13.0% (+6.0 points)Brother Rice+6.0Social Hour: model 18.2% vs market 15.6% (+2.6 points)Social Hour+2.6Decatur Street: model 9.2% vs market 8.7% (+0.5 points)Decatur Street+0.5League Of Legends: model 5.4% vs market 4.9% (+0.5 points)League Of Legends+0.5One Cool Dude: model 3.5% vs market 4.9% (-1.3 points)One Cool Dude-1.3Optimal Courage: model 2.7% vs market 8.7% (-6.0 points)Optimal Courage-6.0Powerized: model 2.2% vs market 3.7% (-1.6 points)Powerized-1.6Stargazzers Dream: model 1.8% vs market 2.5% (-0.7 points)Stargazzers Dream-0.7El Michoacano: model 1.2% vs market 2.5% (-1.4 points)El Michoacano-1.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Gardiner36.9%35.5%+1.4
Brother Rice19.0%13.0%+6.0
Social Hour18.2%15.6%+2.6
Decatur Street9.2%8.7%+0.5
League Of Legends5.4%4.9%+0.5
One Cool Dude3.5%4.9%-1.3
Optimal Courage2.7%8.7%-6.0
Powerized2.2%3.7%-1.6
Stargazzers Dream1.8%2.5%-0.7
El Michoacano1.2%2.5%-1.4
🌧️ Off-track: 687943
🎯 Longshots: 69738410152
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #8, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:7Kaykay (2/1) 43% · fair 3-2 overlay +49%
Place:5In Total Awe (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -40%
Show:6Glory Me (4/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -54%
Other contenders:2Ready Comete (7/2) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -60%, 1That's A Benjamin (10/1) 8% · fair 12-1, 3Feminism (12/1) 7% · fair 13-1
Rest of field:8Rose Alabama (15/1) 3% · fair 67-2 underlay -55%, 4Feasible (20/1) 2% · fair 81-2 underlay -51%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Kaykay — 42.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Kaykay42.6% ◀In Total Awe — 16.6% win probability, morning line 3/1In Total Awe16.6%Glory Me — 10.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Glory Me10.4%Ready Comete — 10.3% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Ready Comete10.3%That'S A Benjamin — 7.7% win probability, morning line 10/1That'S A Benjamin7.7%Feminism — 7.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Feminism7.2%Rose Alabama — 2.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Rose Alabama2.9%Feasible — 2.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Feasible2.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Kaykay42.6%2/1
In Total Awe16.6%3/1
Glory Me10.4%4/1
Ready Comete10.3%3.5/1
That'S A Benjamin7.7%10/1
Feminism7.2%12/1
Rose Alabama2.9%15/1
Feasible2.4%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherKaykay: model 42.6% vs market 26.0% (+16.7 points)Kaykay+16.7In Total Awe: model 16.6% vs market 19.5% (-2.9 points)In Total Awe-2.9Glory Me: model 10.4% vs market 15.6% (-5.2 points)Glory Me-5.2Ready Comete: model 10.3% vs market 17.3% (-7.0 points)Ready Comete-7.0That'S A Benjamin: model 7.7% vs market 7.1% (+0.6 points)That'S A Benjamin+0.6Feminism: model 7.2% vs market 6.0% (+1.2 points)Feminism+1.2Rose Alabama: model 2.9% vs market 4.9% (-2.0 points)Rose Alabama-2.0Feasible: model 2.4% vs market 3.7% (-1.3 points)Feasible-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Kaykay42.6%26.0%+16.7
In Total Awe16.6%19.5%-2.9
Glory Me10.4%15.6%-5.2
Ready Comete10.3%17.3%-7.0
That'S A Benjamin7.7%7.1%+0.6
Feminism7.2%6.0%+1.2
Rose Alabama2.9%4.9%-2.0
Feasible2.4%3.7%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 752613
🎯 Longshots: 75631284
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:3Hazy Horizon (5/2) 42% · fair 3-2 overlay +85%
Place:6Foolin (9/2) 28% · fair 5-2 overlay +72%
Show:4Timelapse (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -30%
Other contenders:7Twillo (7/2) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -70%, 1Now He's Gone (6/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -66%, 9Mckeonville (5/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -73%
Rest of field:2Yogesh (15/1) 1% · fair 159-2 underlay -81%, 5Kiss The Medal (15/1) 1% · fair 81-1 underlay -81%, 8Naxian (20/1) 1% · fair 92-1 underlay -78%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Hazy Horizon — 42.5% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Hazy Horizon42.5% ◀Foolin — 27.7% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Foolin27.7%Timelapse — 8.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Timelapse8.1%Twillo — 7.8% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Twillo7.8%Now He'S Gone — 5.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Now He'S Gone5.3%Mckeonville — 5.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Mckeonville5.1%Yogesh — 1.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Yogesh1.2%Kiss The Medal — 1.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Kiss The Medal1.2%Naxian — 1.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Naxian1.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Hazy Horizon42.5%2.5/1
Foolin27.7%4.5/1
Timelapse8.1%8/1
Twillo7.8%3.5/1
Now He'S Gone5.3%6/1
Mckeonville5.1%5/1
Yogesh1.2%15/1
Kiss The Medal1.2%15/1
Naxian1.1%20/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHazy Horizon: model 42.5% vs market 22.3% (+20.2 points)Hazy Horizon+20.2Foolin: model 27.7% vs market 14.2% (+13.5 points)Foolin+13.5Timelapse: model 8.1% vs market 8.7% (-0.6 points)Timelapse-0.6Twillo: model 7.8% vs market 17.3% (-9.5 points)Twillo-9.5Now He'S Gone: model 5.3% vs market 11.1% (-5.8 points)Now He'S Gone-5.8Mckeonville: model 5.1% vs market 13.0% (-7.8 points)Mckeonville-7.8Yogesh: model 1.2% vs market 4.9% (-3.6 points)Yogesh-3.6Kiss The Medal: model 1.2% vs market 4.9% (-3.7 points)Kiss The Medal-3.7Naxian: model 1.1% vs market 3.7% (-2.6 points)Naxian-2.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Hazy Horizon42.5%22.3%+20.2
Foolin27.7%14.2%+13.5
Timelapse8.1%8.7%-0.6
Twillo7.8%17.3%-9.5
Now He'S Gone5.3%11.1%-5.8
Mckeonville5.1%13.0%-7.8
Yogesh1.2%4.9%-3.6
Kiss The Medal1.2%4.9%-3.7
Naxian1.1%3.7%-2.6
🌧️ Off-track: 367914
🎯 Longshots: 379614582
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Churchill Downs — average winning payout

What a $2 win bet returned WHEN THE PICK WON. 468 graded races at Churchill Downs, 2026-04-25 to 2026-10-29.

$0$2$4$6$8Our top pick: $6.03 from 126 racesOur top pick$6.03Morning-line favourite: $5.14 from 126 racesMorning-line favourite$5.14

This is the size of a winning payout, not a measure of profit — a pick that wins less often at a longer price can average more per winner and still lose money over the month. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupAverage payoutWinners
Our top pick$6.03126
Morning-line favourite$5.14126
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $72,000
Win:2Soap Note (3/1)
Place:7Down Time (2/1)
Show:5Jackies Einor (5/1)
Other contenders:6Ultimit Warrior (8/1), 4Midnight Commander (4/1)
Rest of field:1Glenadean (6/1), 3Just Plain Eugene (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 274516
🎯 Longshots: 7241563
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $58,000
Win:6Diagram (7/2)
Place:2Ashes And Diamonds (3/1)
Show:3Menkaure (2/1)
Other contenders:7Shanett (12/1), 1Miss Clarke (5/1)
Rest of field:4Ashkenazi (10/1), 5Miss Pierre (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 362174
🎯 Longshots: 7426351
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:8Love A Warrior (4/5)
Place:3Take Charge Beach (8/1)
Show:1Rupp (6/1)
Other contenders:9Fire Marshal (10/1), 5Captivate (9/2), 6Chief Ball (50/1)
Rest of field:7Kalapaki Point (15/1), 4Kendom (20/1), 2Epic Road (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 851397
🎯 Longshots: 839514276
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #1, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:5Windsock (7/2)
Place:2Good Hand (4/1)
Show:7Mo Reviews (5/1)
Other contenders:6Asher Dasher (6/1), 3Power Of Vino (5/1), 8Concrete Overlay (6/1)
Rest of field:4Mambo Man (15/1), 10Army Run (20/1), 9Captain Call (12/1), 1Faraz (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 527368
🎯 Longshots: 52378496101
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $62,000
Win:6Culprit (2/1)
Place:7Greers Ferry (3/1)
Show:8Executor (5/1)
Other contenders:2Final Thoughts (6/1), 4Surfin' M (8/1), 9Strummin (10/1)
Rest of field:3Anglican (15/1), 1Bagg O Time (20/1), 10Impavido (20/1), 5Triple Max (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 678249
🎯 Longshots: 67429831105
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 1/8 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:11The Look (9/5)
Place:7Eenymeanymightymo (10/1)
Show:15Gimme Some Lovin (7/2)
Other contenders:4Elida's Angel (9/2), 13Marble Arch (6/1), 3Eleonora (12/1), 2Twinklee (15/1), 10Copycat (8/1)
Rest of field:9Cowgirl Paradise (15/1), 5Thirteen Roses (30/1), 6White Star Line (20/1), 14Take The Helm (10/1), 1Indomiknow (6/1), 8Got What I Got (20/1), 16Ghosts Lil Secret (20/1), 12Valedora (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1115413710
🎯 Longshots: 11471513210312114986165
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #7, #15, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $45,000
Win:6Gardiner (6/5)
Place:8Social Hour (4/1)
Show:7Brother Rice (5/1)
Other contenders:9Decatur Street (8/1), 4Optimal Courage (8/1), 10One Cool Dude (15/1)
Rest of field:3League Of Legends (15/1), 1Powerized (20/1), 5Stargazzers Dream (30/1), 2El Michoacano (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6879410
🎯 Longshots: 69738410152
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #7, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:7Kaykay (2/1)
Place:6Glory Me (4/1)
Show:5In Total Awe (3/1)
Other contenders:2Ready Comete (7/2), 3Feminism (12/1), 1That's A Benjamin (10/1)
Rest of field:8Rose Alabama (15/1), 4Feasible (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 752613
🎯 Longshots: 75631284
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:3Hazy Horizon (5/2)
Place:6Foolin (9/2)
Show:7Twillo (7/2)
Other contenders:4Timelapse (8/1), 1Now He's Gone (6/1), 9Mckeonville (5/1)
Rest of field:2Yogesh (15/1), 5Kiss The Medal (15/1), 8Naxian (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 367914
🎯 Longshots: 379614582
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #7 over #2 ($1 straight; box #7-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #7, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #2 over #3 ($1 straight; box #2-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #6, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #8 over #3 ($1 straight; box #8-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #1, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #5 over #2 ($1 straight; box #5-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #6, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #6 over #7 ($1 straight; box #6-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #6, #8, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #11 over #4 ($1 straight; box #11-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #11 over #15, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #6 over #8 ($1 straight; box #6-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #8, #7, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #7 over #5 ($1 straight; box #7-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #2, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #3 over #7 ($1 straight; box #3-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #6, #4, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.38 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.82 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
36Chief Ball ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer50/1—1.5%+-20.3%0.00%$0.00
65Thirteen Roses ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer30/1—2.2%+-26.8%0.00%$0.00
TOTAL across 2 plays:0.0%$0.00
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $72,000
Win:2Soap Note (3/1)
Place:7Down Time (2/1)
Show:4Midnight Commander (4/1)
Other contenders:1Glenadean (6/1), 5Jackies Einor (5/1)
Rest of field:6Ultimit Warrior (8/1), 3Just Plain Eugene (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 724516
🎯 Longshots: 7241563
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $58,000
Win:7Shanett (12/1)
Place:6Diagram (7/2)
Show:2Ashes And Diamonds (3/1)
Other contenders:3Menkaure (2/1), 4Ashkenazi (10/1)
Rest of field:1Miss Clarke (5/1), 5Miss Pierre (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 632714
🎯 Longshots: 7426351
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:8Love A Warrior (4/5)
Place:1Rupp (6/1)
Show:5Captivate (9/2)
Other contenders:3Take Charge Beach (8/1), 6Chief Ball (50/1), 9Fire Marshal (10/1)
Rest of field:4Kendom (20/1), 7Kalapaki Point (15/1), 2Epic Road (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 851397
🎯 Longshots: 839514276
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:5Windsock (7/2)
Place:6Asher Dasher (6/1)
Show:4Mambo Man (15/1)
Other contenders:8Concrete Overlay (6/1), 7Mo Reviews (5/1), 2Good Hand (4/1)
Rest of field:3Power Of Vino (5/1), 9Captain Call (12/1), 10Army Run (20/1), 1Faraz (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 527638
🎯 Longshots: 52378496101
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #4, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $62,000
Win:6Culprit (2/1)
Place:7Greers Ferry (3/1)
Show:8Executor (5/1)
Other contenders:2Final Thoughts (6/1), 4Surfin' M (8/1), 9Strummin (10/1)
Rest of field:3Anglican (15/1), 1Bagg O Time (20/1), 10Impavido (20/1), 5Triple Max (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 678249
🎯 Longshots: 67429831105
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 1/8 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:11The Look (9/5)
Place:4Elida's Angel (9/2)
Show:10Copycat (8/1)
Other contenders:15Gimme Some Lovin (7/2), 7Eenymeanymightymo (10/1), 13Marble Arch (6/1), 3Eleonora (12/1), 9Cowgirl Paradise (15/1)
Rest of field:2Twinklee (15/1), 1Indomiknow (6/1), 5Thirteen Roses (30/1), 12Valedora (15/1), 14Take The Helm (10/1), 8Got What I Got (20/1), 6White Star Line (20/1), 16Ghosts Lil Secret (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1115413107
🎯 Longshots: 11471513210312114986165
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #4, #10, #15  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $45,000
Win:6Gardiner (6/5)
Place:8Social Hour (4/1)
Show:7Brother Rice (5/1)
Other contenders:9Decatur Street (8/1), 4Optimal Courage (8/1), 3League Of Legends (15/1)
Rest of field:1Powerized (20/1), 10One Cool Dude (15/1), 5Stargazzers Dream (30/1), 2El Michoacano (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 687943
🎯 Longshots: 69738410152
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #7, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:7Kaykay (2/1)
Place:6Glory Me (4/1)
Show:5In Total Awe (3/1)
Other contenders:2Ready Comete (7/2), 3Feminism (12/1), 1That's A Benjamin (10/1)
Rest of field:8Rose Alabama (15/1), 4Feasible (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 756213
🎯 Longshots: 75631284
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:3Hazy Horizon (5/2)
Place:7Twillo (7/2)
Show:6Foolin (9/2)
Other contenders:1Now He's Gone (6/1), 9Mckeonville (5/1), 4Timelapse (8/1)
Rest of field:5Kiss The Medal (15/1), 2Yogesh (15/1), 8Naxian (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 376914
🎯 Longshots: 379614582
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $72,000
Win:2Soap Note (3/1)
Place:7Down Time (2/1)
Show:6Ultimit Warrior (8/1)
Other contenders:5Jackies Einor (5/1), 4Midnight Commander (4/1)
Rest of field:1Glenadean (6/1), 3Just Plain Eugene (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 274516
🎯 Longshots: 7241563
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $58,000
Win:2Ashes And Diamonds (3/1)
Place:6Diagram (7/2)
Show:3Menkaure (2/1)
Other contenders:4Ashkenazi (10/1), 7Shanett (12/1)
Rest of field:1Miss Clarke (5/1), 5Miss Pierre (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 236147
🎯 Longshots: 7426351
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:8Love A Warrior (4/5)
Place:1Rupp (6/1)
Show:3Take Charge Beach (8/1)
Other contenders:5Captivate (9/2), 9Fire Marshal (10/1), 7Kalapaki Point (15/1)
Rest of field:4Kendom (20/1), 6Chief Ball (50/1), 2Epic Road (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 815397
🎯 Longshots: 839514276
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:5Windsock (7/2)
Place:6Asher Dasher (6/1)
Show:2Good Hand (4/1)
Other contenders:7Mo Reviews (5/1), 3Power Of Vino (5/1), 4Mambo Man (15/1)
Rest of field:8Concrete Overlay (6/1), 10Army Run (20/1), 9Captain Call (12/1), 1Faraz (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 527368
🎯 Longshots: 52378496101
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $62,000
Win:7Greers Ferry (3/1)
Place:6Culprit (2/1)
Show:8Executor (5/1)
Other contenders:2Final Thoughts (6/1), 4Surfin' M (8/1), 9Strummin (10/1)
Rest of field:3Anglican (15/1), 1Bagg O Time (20/1), 10Impavido (20/1), 5Triple Max (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 678249
🎯 Longshots: 67429831105
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 1/8 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:11The Look (9/5)
Place:15Gimme Some Lovin (7/2)
Show:7Eenymeanymightymo (10/1)
Other contenders:4Elida's Angel (9/2), 13Marble Arch (6/1), 3Eleonora (12/1), 10Copycat (8/1), 9Cowgirl Paradise (15/1)
Rest of field:2Twinklee (15/1), 6White Star Line (20/1), 8Got What I Got (20/1), 16Ghosts Lil Secret (20/1), 5Thirteen Roses (30/1), 14Take The Helm (10/1), 1Indomiknow (6/1), 12Valedora (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1115413710
🎯 Longshots: 11471513210312114986165
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #15, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $45,000
Win:6Gardiner (6/5)
Place:8Social Hour (4/1)
Show:7Brother Rice (5/1)
Other contenders:3League Of Legends (15/1), 9Decatur Street (8/1), 4Optimal Courage (8/1)
Rest of field:1Powerized (20/1), 10One Cool Dude (15/1), 5Stargazzers Dream (30/1), 2El Michoacano (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 687943
🎯 Longshots: 69738410152
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:7Kaykay (2/1)
Place:2Ready Comete (7/2)
Show:5In Total Awe (3/1)
Other contenders:6Glory Me (4/1), 3Feminism (12/1), 1That's A Benjamin (10/1)
Rest of field:8Rose Alabama (15/1), 4Feasible (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 752613
🎯 Longshots: 75631284
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:3Hazy Horizon (5/2)
Place:6Foolin (9/2)
Show:4Timelapse (8/1)
Other contenders:7Twillo (7/2), 1Now He's Gone (6/1), 9Mckeonville (5/1)
Rest of field:2Yogesh (15/1), 5Kiss The Medal (15/1), 8Naxian (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 367941
🎯 Longshots: 379614582
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #2,#6,#7 (71%) / R2: #2,#6,#3 (57%) / R3: #8 (60%)
$9 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 24%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #2,#6,#3 (57%) / R3: #8 (60%) / R4: #5,#7,#2 (49%)
$9 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #8 (60%) / R4: #5,#7,#2 (49%) / R5: #6,#7,#8 (65%)
$9 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19%
Pick 3 R7-9R7: #6,#7,#8 (74%) / R8: #7,#5,#6 (70%) / R9: #3,#6 (70%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 36%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #2,#6,#7 (71%) / R2: #2,#6,#3 (57%) / R3: #8 (60%) / R4: #5,#7,#2 (49%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 12%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #2,#6,#3 (57%) / R3: #8 (60%) / R4: #5,#7,#2 (49%) / R5: #6,#7,#8 (65%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 11%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ANGLICANARMY RUNASHER DASHERASHES AND DIAMONDSASHKENAZI
BROTHER RICECAPTAIN CALLCAPTIVATECHIEF BALLCONCRETE OVERLAY
COWGIRL PARADISECULPRITDECATUR STREETDIAGRAMDOWN TIME
EL MICHOACANOELEONORAELIDA'S ANGELEPIC ROADEXECUTOR
FEASIBLEFEMINISMFINAL THOUGHTSFIRE MARSHALFOOLIN
GHOSTS LIL SECRETGIMME SOME LOVINGLENADEANGLORY MEGOOD HAND
GREERS FERRYHAZY HORIZONIMPAVIDOIN TOTAL AWEINDOMIKNOW
JUST PLAIN EUGENEKALAPAKI POINTKAYKAYKENDOMKISS THE MEDAL
LOVE A WARRIORMAMBO MANMARBLE ARCHMCKEONVILLEMENKAURE
MISS CLARKEMISS PIERREMO REVIEWSNAXIANNOW HE'S GONE
OPTIMAL COURAGEPOWER OF VINOPOWERIZEDREADY COMETEROSE ALABAMA
SHANETTSOAP NOTESOCIAL HOURSTARGAZZERS DREAMSTRUMMIN
TAKE CHARGE BEACHTAKE THE HELMTHAT'S A BENJAMINTHE LOOKTHIRTEEN ROSES
TRIPLE MAXTWILLOTWINKLEEULTIMIT WARRIORVALEDORA
WINDSOCKYOGESH

 


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback