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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Churchill Downs, November 6, 2026

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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $75,000
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2National Forest (4/5)
Place:5Frosty Jack (4/1)
Show:3Dark Sky (6/1)
Other contenders:6Lowcountry Promise (6/1), 7Tyrone Terrific (8/1)
Rest of field:4Authentic Surprise (15/1), 1Free And Happy (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 253674
🎯 Longshots: 2567314
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:9Sutura (5/2)
Place:10Beach Ballad (7/2)
Show:6Hey Miss Olivia (4/1)
Other contenders:5Sweet Reward (9/2), 8Ralley To Me (10/1), 12Cheddar (12/1), 4Abita Springs (12/1)
Rest of field:2Mundy Sweep (20/1), 11Toast The Star (20/1), 7Rumor Mill (15/1), 1Kristi's Spirit (12/1), 13Musical Mary (15/1), 3Cocoa Bean (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 91065812
🎯 Longshots: 91056842171112133
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #10, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:1A La Vie (4/1)
Place:2Peppermint Quill (3/1)
Show:7Symmetric (9/2)
Other contenders:8Jackie's Lively (9/2), 4Sing The Blues (10/1), 3Turtle Creek (5/1)
Rest of field:9Eden's Charm (8/1), 6Charianna (15/1), 5She's All Kristi (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 127834
🎯 Longshots: 217843965
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #7, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $127,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1The Grumpy Rabbit (7/5)
Place:6Just Singing (5/2)
Show:4My Steel Magnolia (4/1)
Other contenders:2Mighty Nora (8/1), 3Lady Law (8/1)
Rest of field:5Fire Moon (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 164235
🎯 Longshots: 163245
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:4Ironclad (5/2)
Place:7Paradise Street (7/2)
Show:5Lexi V. (5/1)
Other contenders:8Altadena (6/1), 1Acquazurra (6/1), 9Elusive Ring (8/1), 2Heitzgirl (15/1)
Rest of field:11Parisinthespring (15/1), 3Breakout Ready (20/1), 6Cazenave (15/1), 12Sheer Jazz (30/1), 13Very Valentino (20/1), 10Hey Flameaway (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 475819
🎯 Longshots: 47589211163121310
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:2Can't Stop Willis (4/1)
Place:7Crazy Diamond (3/1)
Show:10Wytheville (5/2)
Other contenders:9Fast Jimmy (8/1), 8Berniedott (15/1), 6Four Dimes (6/1)
Rest of field:5Jem's Hershey Kiss (20/1), 3Why Not Fly (12/1), 4Tegatron (15/1), 1Pick A Switch (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1027968
🎯 Longshots: 10729856341
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #10, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $58,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Doroteo (2/1)
Place:2Justifreak (3/1)
Show:7Damascus Steel (6/1)
Other contenders:4Captain Mercury (9/2), 8Inordinary (8/1), 1Colt Forty Seven (6/1)
Rest of field:5Storm The Streets (10/1), 6Big Rog (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 324718
🎯 Longshots: 82153476
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $148,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Yinzer (5/2)
Place:3Encino (9/5)
Show:5Johny's Rendezvous (7/2)
Other contenders:4Air Recruit (9/2), 1Neat (6/1)
Rest of field:2Echo Lane (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 365412
🎯 Longshots: 635421
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 9  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $36,000
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:3Mckinzie's Glory (9/2)
Place:1Click (10/1)
Show:7Baby Hello (6/1)
Other contenders:12Vinno Ronnie (10/1), 13Cavatelli (6/1), 4She's Gotta Go (8/1), 10Extreme Dream (8/1), 2Motown Sound (5/1)
Rest of field:6Mighty Risky (10/1), 5Ballybay Beauty (12/1), 9Pinit Annie (10/1), 15Ride The Broom (20/1), 14Denise Says No (20/1), 11B D's Angel (15/1), 8Pauline's Angel (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 31713124
🎯 Longshots: 134126105131192781415
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #7, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $75,000
Win:2National Forest (4/5) 68% · fair 2-5 overlay +72%
Place:3Dark Sky (6/1) 14% · fair 13-2
Show:5Frosty Jack (4/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -75%
Other contenders:6Lowcountry Promise (6/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -69%, 7Tyrone Terrific (8/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -65%
Rest of field:1Free And Happy (15/1) 2% · fair 59-1 underlay -75%, 4Authentic Surprise (15/1) 2% · fair 129-2 underlay -77%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

National Forest — 68.2% win probability, morning line 0.8/1National Forest68.2% ◀Dark Sky — 13.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Dark Sky13.7%Frosty Jack — 5.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Frosty Jack5.8%Lowcountry Promise — 4.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Lowcountry Promise4.9%Tyrone Terrific — 4.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Tyrone Terrific4.2%Free And Happy — 1.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Free And Happy1.7%Authentic Surprise — 1.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Authentic Surprise1.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
National Forest68.2%0.8/1
Dark Sky13.7%6/1
Frosty Jack5.8%4/1
Lowcountry Promise4.9%6/1
Tyrone Terrific4.2%8/1
Free And Happy1.7%15/1
Authentic Surprise1.5%15/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherNational Forest: model 68.2% vs market 43.5% (+24.7 points)National Forest+24.7Dark Sky: model 13.7% vs market 11.2% (+2.5 points)Dark Sky+2.5Frosty Jack: model 5.8% vs market 15.7% (-9.8 points)Frosty Jack-9.8Lowcountry Promise: model 4.9% vs market 11.2% (-6.3 points)Lowcountry Promise-6.3Tyrone Terrific: model 4.2% vs market 8.7% (-4.5 points)Tyrone Terrific-4.5Free And Happy: model 1.7% vs market 4.9% (-3.2 points)Free And Happy-3.2Authentic Surprise: model 1.5% vs market 4.9% (-3.4 points)Authentic Surprise-3.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
National Forest68.2%43.5%+24.7
Dark Sky13.7%11.2%+2.5
Frosty Jack5.8%15.7%-9.8
Lowcountry Promise4.9%11.2%-6.3
Tyrone Terrific4.2%8.7%-4.5
Free And Happy1.7%4.9%-3.2
Authentic Surprise1.5%4.9%-3.4
🌧️ Off-track: 253671
🎯 Longshots: 2567314
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:9Sutura (5/2) 29% · fair 5-2
Place:10Beach Ballad (7/2) 28% · fair 5-2 overlay +34%
Show:5Sweet Reward (9/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -33%
Other contenders:6Hey Miss Olivia (4/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -47%, 8Ralley To Me (10/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -43%, 4Abita Springs (12/1) 2% · fair 81-2 underlay -70%, 12Cheddar (12/1) 2% · fair 44-1 underlay -73%
Rest of field:2Mundy Sweep (20/1) 2% · fair 91-2 underlay -56%, 11Toast The Star (20/1) 2% · fair 50-1 underlay -60%, 3Cocoa Bean (30/1) 2% · fair 131-2 underlay -54%, 13Musical Mary (15/1) 1% · fair 73-1 underlay -79%, 7Rumor Mill (15/1) 1% · fair 249-2 underlay -88%, 1Kristi's Spirit (12/1) 1% · fair 137-1 underlay -91%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Sutura — 29.0% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Sutura29.0% ◀Beach Ballad — 27.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Beach Ballad27.7%Sweet Reward — 12.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Sweet Reward12.9%Hey Miss Olivia — 11.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Hey Miss Olivia11.8%Ralley To Me — 5.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Ralley To Me5.4%Abita Springs — 2.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Abita Springs2.4%Cheddar — 2.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Cheddar2.2%Mundy Sweep — 2.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Mundy Sweep2.2%Toast The Star — 2.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Toast The Star2.0%Cocoa Bean — 1.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Cocoa Bean1.5%Musical Mary — 1.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Musical Mary1.4%Rumor Mill — 0.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Rumor Mill0.8%Kristi'S Spirit — 0.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Kristi'S Spirit0.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Sutura29.0%2.5/1
Beach Ballad27.7%3.5/1
Sweet Reward12.9%4.5/1
Hey Miss Olivia11.8%4/1
Ralley To Me5.4%10/1
Abita Springs2.4%12/1
Cheddar2.2%12/1
Mundy Sweep2.2%20/1
Toast The Star2.0%20/1
Cocoa Bean1.5%30/1
Musical Mary1.4%15/1
Rumor Mill0.8%15/1
Kristi'S Spirit0.7%12/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSutura: model 29.0% vs market 19.5% (+9.5 points)Sutura+9.5Beach Ballad: model 27.7% vs market 15.2% (+12.5 points)Beach Ballad+12.5Sweet Reward: model 12.9% vs market 12.4% (+0.5 points)Sweet Reward+0.5Hey Miss Olivia: model 11.8% vs market 13.7% (-1.9 points)Hey Miss Olivia-1.9Ralley To Me: model 5.4% vs market 6.2% (-0.8 points)Ralley To Me-0.8Abita Springs: model 2.4% vs market 5.3% (-2.8 points)Abita Springs-2.8Cheddar: model 2.2% vs market 5.3% (-3.0 points)Cheddar-3.0Mundy Sweep: model 2.2% vs market 3.3% (-1.1 points)Mundy Sweep-1.1Toast The Star: model 2.0% vs market 3.3% (-1.3 points)Toast The Star-1.3Cocoa Bean: model 1.5% vs market 2.2% (-0.7 points)Cocoa Bean-0.7Musical Mary: model 1.4% vs market 4.3% (-2.9 points)Musical Mary-2.9Rumor Mill: model 0.8% vs market 4.3% (-3.5 points)Rumor Mill-3.5Kristi'S Spirit: model 0.7% vs market 5.3% (-4.5 points)Kristi'S Spirit-4.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Sutura29.0%19.5%+9.5
Beach Ballad27.7%15.2%+12.5
Sweet Reward12.9%12.4%+0.5
Hey Miss Olivia11.8%13.7%-1.9
Ralley To Me5.4%6.2%-0.8
Abita Springs2.4%5.3%-2.8
Cheddar2.2%5.3%-3.0
Mundy Sweep2.2%3.3%-1.1
Toast The Star2.0%3.3%-1.3
Cocoa Bean1.5%2.2%-0.7
Musical Mary1.4%4.3%-2.9
Rumor Mill0.8%4.3%-3.5
Kristi'S Spirit0.7%5.3%-4.5
🌧️ Off-track: 9106584
🎯 Longshots: 91056842171112133
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #10, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:1A La Vie (4/1) 30% · fair 5-2 overlay +75%
Place:4Sing The Blues (10/1) 20% · fair 4-1 overlay +147%
Show:7Symmetric (9/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -30%
Other contenders:2Peppermint Quill (3/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -70%, 8Jackie's Lively (9/2) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -55%, 3Turtle Creek (5/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -51%
Rest of field:9Eden's Charm (8/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -62%, 6Charianna (15/1) 3% · fair 37-1 underlay -60%, 5She's All Kristi (30/1) 2% · fair 47-1 underlay -36%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

A La Vie — 30.4% win probability, morning line 4/1A La Vie30.4% ◀Sing The Blues — 19.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Sing The Blues19.8%Symmetric — 13.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Symmetric13.5%Peppermint Quill — 9.1% win probability, morning line 3/1Peppermint Quill9.1%Jackie'S Lively — 9.1% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Jackie'S Lively9.1%Turtle Creek — 8.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Turtle Creek8.9%Eden'S Charm — 4.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Eden'S Charm4.6%Charianna — 2.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Charianna2.6%She'S All Kristi — 2.1% win probability, morning line 30/1She'S All Kristi2.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
A La Vie30.4%4/1
Sing The Blues19.8%10/1
Symmetric13.5%4.5/1
Peppermint Quill9.1%3/1
Jackie'S Lively9.1%4.5/1
Turtle Creek8.9%5/1
Eden'S Charm4.6%8/1
Charianna2.6%15/1
She'S All Kristi2.1%30/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherA La Vie: model 30.4% vs market 15.7% (+14.8 points)A La Vie+14.8Sing The Blues: model 19.8% vs market 7.1% (+12.7 points)Sing The Blues+12.7Symmetric: model 13.5% vs market 14.2% (-0.8 points)Symmetric-0.8Peppermint Quill: model 9.1% vs market 19.6% (-10.5 points)Peppermint Quill-10.5Jackie'S Lively: model 9.1% vs market 14.2% (-5.2 points)Jackie'S Lively-5.2Turtle Creek: model 8.9% vs market 13.1% (-4.2 points)Turtle Creek-4.2Eden'S Charm: model 4.6% vs market 8.7% (-4.1 points)Eden'S Charm-4.1Charianna: model 2.6% vs market 4.9% (-2.3 points)Charianna-2.3She'S All Kristi: model 2.1% vs market 2.5% (-0.4 points)She'S All Kristi-0.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
A La Vie30.4%15.7%+14.8
Sing The Blues19.8%7.1%+12.7
Symmetric13.5%14.2%-0.8
Peppermint Quill9.1%19.6%-10.5
Jackie'S Lively9.1%14.2%-5.2
Turtle Creek8.9%13.1%-4.2
Eden'S Charm4.6%8.7%-4.1
Charianna2.6%4.9%-2.3
She'S All Kristi2.1%2.5%-0.4
🌧️ Off-track: 127843
🎯 Longshots: 217843965
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:1The Grumpy Rabbit (7/5) 32% · fair 2-1 underlay -35%
Place:6Just Singing (5/2) 23% · fair 7-2
Show:4My Steel Magnolia (4/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:2Mighty Nora (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 5Fire Moon (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -43%
Rest of field:3Lady Law (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -25%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

The Grumpy Rabbit — 31.6% win probability, morning line 1.4/1The Grumpy Rabbit31.6% ◀Just Singing — 23.4% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Just Singing23.4%My Steel Magnolia — 16.7% win probability, morning line 4/1My Steel Magnolia16.7%Mighty Nora — 11.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Mighty Nora11.0%Fire Moon — 8.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Fire Moon8.7%Lady Law — 8.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Lady Law8.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
The Grumpy Rabbit31.6%1.4/1
Just Singing23.4%2.5/1
My Steel Magnolia16.7%4/1
Mighty Nora11.0%8/1
Fire Moon8.7%6/1
Lady Law8.6%8/1
🌧️ Off-track: 164523
🎯 Longshots: 163245
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:7Paradise Street (7/2) 26% · fair 3-1
Place:4Ironclad (5/2) 25% · fair 3-1
Show:5Lexi V. (5/1) 16% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:8Altadena (6/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -36%, 9Elusive Ring (8/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -38%, 1Acquazurra (6/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -72%, 2Heitzgirl (15/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -41%
Rest of field:11Parisinthespring (15/1) 3% · fair 34-1 underlay -56%, 3Breakout Ready (20/1) 2% · fair 47-1 underlay -58%, 12Sheer Jazz (30/1) 1% · fair 71-1 underlay -58%, 6Cazenave (15/1) 1% · fair 269-2 underlay -89%, 13Very Valentino (20/1) 0% · fair 427-2 underlay -91%, 10Hey Flameaway (30/1) 0% · fair 751-2 underlay -92%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Paradise Street — 26.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Paradise Street26.0% ◀Ironclad — 25.4% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Ironclad25.4%Lexi V. — 15.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Lexi V.15.7%Altadena — 9.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Altadena9.6%Elusive Ring — 7.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Elusive Ring7.2%Acquazurra — 4.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Acquazurra4.4%Heitzgirl — 3.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Heitzgirl3.8%Parisinthespring — 2.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Parisinthespring2.8%Breakout Ready — 2.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Breakout Ready2.1%Sheer Jazz — 1.4% win probability, morning line 30/1Sheer Jazz1.4%Cazenave — 0.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Cazenave0.7%Very Valentino — 0.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Very Valentino0.5%Hey Flameaway — 0.3% win probability, morning line 30/1Hey Flameaway0.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Paradise Street26.0%3.5/1
Ironclad25.4%2.5/1
Lexi V.15.7%5/1
Altadena9.6%6/1
Elusive Ring7.2%8/1
Acquazurra4.4%6/1
Heitzgirl3.8%15/1
Parisinthespring2.8%15/1
Breakout Ready2.1%20/1
Sheer Jazz1.4%30/1
Cazenave0.7%15/1
Very Valentino0.5%20/1
Hey Flameaway0.3%30/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherParadise Street: model 26.0% vs market 15.7% (+10.4 points)Paradise Street+10.4Ironclad: model 25.4% vs market 20.1% (+5.3 points)Ironclad+5.3Lexi V.: model 15.7% vs market 11.7% (+4.0 points)Lexi V.+4.0Altadena: model 9.6% vs market 10.1% (-0.4 points)Altadena-0.4Elusive Ring: model 7.2% vs market 7.8% (-0.6 points)Elusive Ring-0.6Acquazurra: model 4.4% vs market 10.1% (-5.7 points)Acquazurra-5.7Heitzgirl: model 3.8% vs market 4.4% (-0.6 points)Heitzgirl-0.6Parisinthespring: model 2.8% vs market 4.4% (-1.6 points)Parisinthespring-1.6Breakout Ready: model 2.1% vs market 3.4% (-1.3 points)Breakout Ready-1.3Sheer Jazz: model 1.4% vs market 2.3% (-0.9 points)Sheer Jazz-0.9Cazenave: model 0.7% vs market 4.4% (-3.7 points)Cazenave-3.7Very Valentino: model 0.5% vs market 3.4% (-2.9 points)Very Valentino-2.9Hey Flameaway: model 0.3% vs market 2.3% (-2.0 points)Hey Flameaway-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Paradise Street26.0%15.7%+10.4
Ironclad25.4%20.1%+5.3
Lexi V.15.7%11.7%+4.0
Altadena9.6%10.1%-0.4
Elusive Ring7.2%7.8%-0.6
Acquazurra4.4%10.1%-5.7
Heitzgirl3.8%4.4%-0.6
Parisinthespring2.8%4.4%-1.6
Breakout Ready2.1%3.4%-1.3
Sheer Jazz1.4%2.3%-0.9
Cazenave0.7%4.4%-3.7
Very Valentino0.5%3.4%-2.9
Hey Flameaway0.3%2.3%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 475819
🎯 Longshots: 47589211163121310
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:2Can't Stop Willis (4/1) 32% · fair 2-1 overlay +88%
Place:7Crazy Diamond (3/1) 27% · fair 3-1
Show:10Wytheville (5/2) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -68%
Other contenders:9Fast Jimmy (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 8Berniedott (15/1) 5% · fair 37-2, 6Four Dimes (6/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -69%
Rest of field:5Jem's Hershey Kiss (20/1) 5% · fair 20-1, 3Why Not Fly (12/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -64%, 4Tegatron (15/1) 2% · fair 85-2 underlay -65%, 1Pick A Switch (30/1) 1% · fair 103-1 underlay -71%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Can'T Stop Willis — 31.9% win probability, morning line 4/1Can'T Stop Willis31.9% ◀Crazy Diamond — 26.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Crazy Diamond26.5%Wytheville — 11.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Wytheville11.3%Fast Jimmy — 9.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Fast Jimmy9.3%Berniedott — 5.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Berniedott5.1%Four Dimes — 4.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Four Dimes4.9%Jem'S Hershey Kiss — 4.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Jem'S Hershey Kiss4.8%Why Not Fly — 2.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Why Not Fly2.9%Tegatron — 2.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Tegatron2.3%Pick A Switch — 1.0% win probability, morning line 30/1Pick A Switch1.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Can'T Stop Willis31.9%4/1
Crazy Diamond26.5%3/1
Wytheville11.3%2.5/1
Fast Jimmy9.3%8/1
Berniedott5.1%15/1
Four Dimes4.9%6/1
Jem'S Hershey Kiss4.8%20/1
Why Not Fly2.9%12/1
Tegatron2.3%15/1
Pick A Switch1.0%30/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCan'T Stop Willis: model 31.9% vs market 15.7% (+16.2 points)Can'T Stop Willis+16.2Crazy Diamond: model 26.5% vs market 19.7% (+6.9 points)Crazy Diamond+6.9Wytheville: model 11.3% vs market 22.5% (-11.2 points)Wytheville-11.2Fast Jimmy: model 9.3% vs market 8.7% (+0.5 points)Fast Jimmy+0.5Berniedott: model 5.1% vs market 4.9% (+0.2 points)Berniedott+0.2Four Dimes: model 4.9% vs market 11.2% (-6.3 points)Four Dimes-6.3Jem'S Hershey Kiss: model 4.8% vs market 3.7% (+1.0 points)Jem'S Hershey Kiss+1.0Why Not Fly: model 2.9% vs market 6.0% (-3.1 points)Why Not Fly-3.1Tegatron: model 2.3% vs market 4.9% (-2.6 points)Tegatron-2.6Pick A Switch: model 1.0% vs market 2.5% (-1.6 points)Pick A Switch-1.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Can'T Stop Willis31.9%15.7%+16.2
Crazy Diamond26.5%19.7%+6.9
Wytheville11.3%22.5%-11.2
Fast Jimmy9.3%8.7%+0.5
Berniedott5.1%4.9%+0.2
Four Dimes4.9%11.2%-6.3
Jem'S Hershey Kiss4.8%3.7%+1.0
Why Not Fly2.9%6.0%-3.1
Tegatron2.3%4.9%-2.6
Pick A Switch1.0%2.5%-1.6
🌧️ Off-track: 2710693
🎯 Longshots: 10729856341
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #10, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $58,000
Win:2Justifreak (3/1) 27% · fair 5-2
Place:3Doroteo (2/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -55%
Show:7Damascus Steel (6/1) 15% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:4Captain Mercury (9/2) 14% · fair 6-1, 8Inordinary (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 1Colt Forty Seven (6/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -47%
Rest of field:5Storm The Streets (10/1) 8% · fair 12-1, 6Big Rog (30/1) 1% · fair 169-2 underlay -65%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Justifreak — 27.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Justifreak27.0% ◀Doroteo — 18.4% win probability, morning line 2/1Doroteo18.4%Damascus Steel — 14.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Damascus Steel14.7%Captain Mercury — 14.3% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Captain Mercury14.3%Inordinary — 8.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Inordinary8.7%Colt Forty Seven — 8.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Colt Forty Seven8.1%Storm The Streets — 7.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Storm The Streets7.7%Big Rog — 1.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Big Rog1.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Justifreak27.0%3/1
Doroteo18.4%2/1
Damascus Steel14.7%6/1
Captain Mercury14.3%4.5/1
Inordinary8.7%8/1
Colt Forty Seven8.1%6/1
Storm The Streets7.7%10/1
Big Rog1.2%30/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherJustifreak: model 27.0% vs market 19.5% (+7.5 points)Justifreak+7.5Doroteo: model 18.4% vs market 25.9% (-7.6 points)Doroteo-7.6Damascus Steel: model 14.7% vs market 11.1% (+3.6 points)Damascus Steel+3.6Captain Mercury: model 14.3% vs market 14.1% (+0.2 points)Captain Mercury+0.2Inordinary: model 8.7% vs market 8.6% (+0.1 points)Inordinary+0.1Colt Forty Seven: model 8.1% vs market 11.1% (-3.0 points)Colt Forty Seven-3.0Storm The Streets: model 7.7% vs market 7.1% (+0.6 points)Storm The Streets+0.6Big Rog: model 1.2% vs market 2.5% (-1.3 points)Big Rog-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Justifreak27.0%19.5%+7.5
Doroteo18.4%25.9%-7.6
Damascus Steel14.7%11.1%+3.6
Captain Mercury14.3%14.1%+0.2
Inordinary8.7%8.6%+0.1
Colt Forty Seven8.1%11.1%-3.0
Storm The Streets7.7%7.1%+0.6
Big Rog1.2%2.5%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 234718
🎯 Longshots: 82153476
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $148,000
Win:6Yinzer (5/2) 25% · fair 3-1
Place:3Encino (9/5) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -41%
Show:5Johny's Rendezvous (7/2) 22% · fair 7-2
Other contenders:4Air Recruit (9/2) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -45%, 1Neat (6/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -36%
Rest of field:2Echo Lane (10/1) 8% · fair 23-2
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Yinzer — 25.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Yinzer25.3% ◀Encino — 24.6% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Encino24.6%Johny'S Rendezvous — 21.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Johny'S Rendezvous21.7%Air Recruit — 10.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Air Recruit10.9%Neat — 9.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Neat9.6%Echo Lane — 8.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Echo Lane8.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Yinzer25.3%2.5/1
Encino24.6%1.8/1
Johny'S Rendezvous21.7%3.5/1
Air Recruit10.9%4.5/1
Neat9.6%6/1
Echo Lane8.0%10/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherYinzer: model 25.3% vs market 22.3% (+3.0 points)Yinzer+3.0Encino: model 24.6% vs market 27.9% (-3.3 points)Encino-3.3Johny'S Rendezvous: model 21.7% vs market 17.4% (+4.3 points)Johny'S Rendezvous+4.3Air Recruit: model 10.9% vs market 14.2% (-3.3 points)Air Recruit-3.3Neat: model 9.6% vs market 11.2% (-1.5 points)Neat-1.5Echo Lane: model 8.0% vs market 7.1% (+0.9 points)Echo Lane+0.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Yinzer25.3%22.3%+3.0
Encino24.6%27.9%-3.3
Johny'S Rendezvous21.7%17.4%+4.3
Air Recruit10.9%14.2%-3.3
Neat9.6%11.2%-1.5
Echo Lane8.0%7.1%+0.9
🌧️ Off-track: 365412
🎯 Longshots: 635421
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 9  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $36,000
Win:3Mckinzie's Glory (9/2) 24% · fair 3-1 overlay +39%
Place:1Click (10/1) 13% · fair 13-2 overlay +52%
Show:4She's Gotta Go (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2
Other contenders:12Vinno Ronnie (10/1) 8% · fair 23-2, 7Baby Hello (6/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -53%, 13Cavatelli (6/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -53%, 10Extreme Dream (8/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -53%, 9Pinit Annie (10/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -53%
Rest of field:2Motown Sound (5/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -76%, 6Mighty Risky (10/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -57%, 14Denise Says No (20/1) 3% · fair 28-1 underlay -28%, 5Ballybay Beauty (12/1) 3% · fair 59-2 underlay -59%, 11B D's Angel (15/1) 2% · fair 81-2 underlay -63%, 15Ride The Broom (20/1) 2% · fair 95-2 underlay -58%, 8Pauline's Angel (20/1) 2% · fair 58-1 underlay -66%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Mckinzie'S Glory — 23.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Mckinzie'S Glory23.6% ◀Click — 13.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Click13.2%She'S Gotta Go — 8.7% win probability, morning line 8/1She'S Gotta Go8.7%Vinno Ronnie — 8.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Vinno Ronnie8.1%Baby Hello — 7.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Baby Hello7.3%Cavatelli — 7.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Cavatelli7.3%Extreme Dream — 5.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Extreme Dream5.6%Pinit Annie — 4.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Pinit Annie4.5%Motown Sound — 4.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Motown Sound4.5%Mighty Risky — 4.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Mighty Risky4.1%Denise Says No — 3.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Denise Says No3.5%Ballybay Beauty — 3.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Ballybay Beauty3.3%B D'S Angel — 2.4% win probability, morning line 15/1B D'S Angel2.4%Ride The Broom — 2.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Ride The Broom2.1%Pauline'S Angel — 1.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Pauline'S Angel1.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Mckinzie'S Glory23.6%4.5/1
Click13.2%10/1
She'S Gotta Go8.7%8/1
Vinno Ronnie8.1%10/1
Baby Hello7.3%6/1
Cavatelli7.3%6/1
Extreme Dream5.6%8/1
Pinit Annie4.5%10/1
Motown Sound4.5%5/1
Mighty Risky4.1%10/1
Denise Says No3.5%20/1
Ballybay Beauty3.3%12/1
B D'S Angel2.4%15/1
Ride The Broom2.1%20/1
Pauline'S Angel1.7%20/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMckinzie'S Glory: model 23.6% vs market 12.1% (+11.5 points)Mckinzie'S Glory+11.5Click: model 13.2% vs market 6.1% (+7.2 points)Click+7.2She'S Gotta Go: model 8.7% vs market 7.4% (+1.4 points)She'S Gotta Go+1.4Vinno Ronnie: model 8.1% vs market 6.1% (+2.1 points)Vinno Ronnie+2.1Baby Hello: model 7.3% vs market 9.5% (-2.2 points)Baby Hello-2.2Cavatelli: model 7.3% vs market 9.5% (-2.2 points)Cavatelli-2.2Extreme Dream: model 5.6% vs market 7.4% (-1.8 points)Extreme Dream-1.8Pinit Annie: model 4.5% vs market 6.1% (-1.5 points)Pinit Annie-1.5Motown Sound: model 4.5% vs market 11.1% (-6.6 points)Motown Sound-6.6Mighty Risky: model 4.1% vs market 6.1% (-1.9 points)Mighty Risky-1.9Denise Says No: model 3.5% vs market 3.2% (+0.3 points)Denise Says No+0.3Ballybay Beauty: model 3.3% vs market 5.1% (-1.8 points)Ballybay Beauty-1.8B D'S Angel: model 2.4% vs market 4.2% (-1.7 points)B D'S Angel-1.7Ride The Broom: model 2.1% vs market 3.2% (-1.1 points)Ride The Broom-1.1Pauline'S Angel: model 1.7% vs market 3.2% (-1.5 points)Pauline'S Angel-1.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Mckinzie'S Glory23.6%12.1%+11.5
Click13.2%6.1%+7.2
She'S Gotta Go8.7%7.4%+1.4
Vinno Ronnie8.1%6.1%+2.1
Baby Hello7.3%9.5%-2.2
Cavatelli7.3%9.5%-2.2
Extreme Dream5.6%7.4%-1.8
Pinit Annie4.5%6.1%-1.5
Motown Sound4.5%11.1%-6.6
Mighty Risky4.1%6.1%-1.9
Denise Says No3.5%3.2%+0.3
Ballybay Beauty3.3%5.1%-1.8
B D'S Angel2.4%4.2%-1.7
Ride The Broom2.1%3.2%-1.1
Pauline'S Angel1.7%3.2%-1.5
🌧️ Off-track: 3171324
🎯 Longshots: 134126105131192781415
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #4, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Churchill Downs — average winning payout

What a $2 win bet returned WHEN THE PICK WON. 485 graded races at Churchill Downs, 2026-04-25 to 2026-11-04.

$0$2$4$6$8Our top pick: $6.00 from 130 racesOur top pick$6.00Morning-line favourite: $5.15 from 130 racesMorning-line favourite$5.15

This is the size of a winning payout, not a measure of profit — a pick that wins less often at a longer price can average more per winner and still lose money over the month. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupAverage payoutWinners
Our top pick$6.00130
Morning-line favourite$5.15130
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $75,000
Win:2National Forest (4/5)
Place:3Dark Sky (6/1)
Show:5Frosty Jack (4/1)
Other contenders:6Lowcountry Promise (6/1), 7Tyrone Terrific (8/1)
Rest of field:1Free And Happy (15/1), 4Authentic Surprise (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 253671
🎯 Longshots: 2567314
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:9Sutura (5/2)
Place:5Sweet Reward (9/2)
Show:10Beach Ballad (7/2)
Other contenders:6Hey Miss Olivia (4/1), 8Ralley To Me (10/1), 12Cheddar (12/1), 2Mundy Sweep (20/1)
Rest of field:1Kristi's Spirit (12/1), 3Cocoa Bean (30/1), 7Rumor Mill (15/1), 11Toast The Star (20/1), 4Abita Springs (12/1), 13Musical Mary (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 91056812
🎯 Longshots: 91056842171112133
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #5, #10, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:1A La Vie (4/1)
Place:4Sing The Blues (10/1)
Show:2Peppermint Quill (3/1)
Other contenders:7Symmetric (9/2), 8Jackie's Lively (9/2), 3Turtle Creek (5/1)
Rest of field:9Eden's Charm (8/1), 5She's All Kristi (30/1), 6Charianna (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 127834
🎯 Longshots: 217843965
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:1The Grumpy Rabbit (7/5)
Place:6Just Singing (5/2)
Show:4My Steel Magnolia (4/1)
Other contenders:5Fire Moon (6/1), 2Mighty Nora (8/1)
Rest of field:3Lady Law (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 164523
🎯 Longshots: 163245
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:4Ironclad (5/2)
Place:7Paradise Street (7/2)
Show:5Lexi V. (5/1)
Other contenders:1Acquazurra (6/1), 8Altadena (6/1), 9Elusive Ring (8/1), 2Heitzgirl (15/1)
Rest of field:11Parisinthespring (15/1), 12Sheer Jazz (30/1), 3Breakout Ready (20/1), 6Cazenave (15/1), 13Very Valentino (20/1), 10Hey Flameaway (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 475189
🎯 Longshots: 47589211163121310
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:7Crazy Diamond (3/1)
Place:2Can't Stop Willis (4/1)
Show:10Wytheville (5/2)
Other contenders:9Fast Jimmy (8/1), 8Berniedott (15/1), 6Four Dimes (6/1)
Rest of field:5Jem's Hershey Kiss (20/1), 3Why Not Fly (12/1), 1Pick A Switch (30/1), 4Tegatron (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1072693
🎯 Longshots: 10729856341
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #10, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $58,000
Win:3Doroteo (2/1)
Place:2Justifreak (3/1)
Show:4Captain Mercury (9/2)
Other contenders:7Damascus Steel (6/1), 8Inordinary (8/1), 5Storm The Streets (10/1)
Rest of field:1Colt Forty Seven (6/1), 6Big Rog (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 324718
🎯 Longshots: 82153476
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $148,000
Win:3Encino (9/5)
Place:6Yinzer (5/2)
Show:5Johny's Rendezvous (7/2)
Other contenders:4Air Recruit (9/2), 2Echo Lane (10/1)
Rest of field:1Neat (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 365412
🎯 Longshots: 635421
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 9  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $36,000
Win:1Click (10/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:3Mckinzie's Glory (9/2)
Show:7Baby Hello (6/1)
Other contenders:12Vinno Ronnie (10/1), 13Cavatelli (6/1), 4She's Gotta Go (8/1), 10Extreme Dream (8/1), 2Motown Sound (5/1)
Rest of field:6Mighty Risky (10/1), 5Ballybay Beauty (12/1), 14Denise Says No (20/1), 11B D's Angel (15/1), 15Ride The Broom (20/1), 9Pinit Annie (10/1), 8Pauline's Angel (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3712134
🎯 Longshots: 134126105131192781415
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #7, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #2 over #5 ($1 straight; box #2-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #3, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #9 over #10 ($1 straight; box #9-#10 for cover)
Trifecta: #9 over #5, #10, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #2 over #1 ($1 straight; box #2-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #4, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #1 over #6 ($1 straight; box #1-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #6, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #4 over #7 ($1 straight; box #4-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #7, #5, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #7 over #10 ($1 straight; box #7-#10 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #7, #10, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #3 over #2 ($1 straight; box #3-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #3, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #3 over #6 ($1 straight; box #3-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #3, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
Race 9AI Exacta: #3 over #1 ($1 straight; box #3-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #3, #7, #13 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.38 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.80 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
91Click10/1—16.9%+68.6%1.72%$1.72
34Sing The Blues10/1—11.0%+16.5%0.41%$0.41
65Jem'S Hershey Kiss ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer20/1—3.7%+-18.2%0.00%$0.00
23Cocoa Bean ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer30/1—2.2%+-26.2%0.00%$0.00
TOTAL across 4 plays:2.1%$2.13
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $75,000
Win:2National Forest (4/5)
Place:5Frosty Jack (4/1)
Show:3Dark Sky (6/1)
Other contenders:6Lowcountry Promise (6/1), 7Tyrone Terrific (8/1)
Rest of field:4Authentic Surprise (15/1), 1Free And Happy (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 253674
🎯 Longshots: 2567314
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:5Sweet Reward (9/2)
Place:9Sutura (5/2)
Show:6Hey Miss Olivia (4/1)
Other contenders:10Beach Ballad (7/2), 3Cocoa Bean (30/1), 8Ralley To Me (10/1), 2Mundy Sweep (20/1)
Rest of field:4Abita Springs (12/1), 1Kristi's Spirit (12/1), 7Rumor Mill (15/1), 12Cheddar (12/1), 13Musical Mary (15/1), 11Toast The Star (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9510684
🎯 Longshots: 91056842171112133
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #9, #6, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:1A La Vie (4/1)
Place:4Sing The Blues (10/1)
Show:2Peppermint Quill (3/1)
Other contenders:7Symmetric (9/2), 8Jackie's Lively (9/2), 3Turtle Creek (5/1)
Rest of field:9Eden's Charm (8/1), 6Charianna (15/1), 5She's All Kristi (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 127834
🎯 Longshots: 217843965
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:1The Grumpy Rabbit (7/5)
Place:6Just Singing (5/2)
Show:3Lady Law (8/1)
Other contenders:4My Steel Magnolia (4/1), 5Fire Moon (6/1)
Rest of field:2Mighty Nora (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 164352
🎯 Longshots: 163245
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:1Acquazurra (6/1)
Place:7Paradise Street (7/2)
Show:5Lexi V. (5/1)
Other contenders:4Ironclad (5/2), 8Altadena (6/1), 9Elusive Ring (8/1), 12Sheer Jazz (30/1)
Rest of field:2Heitzgirl (15/1), 11Parisinthespring (15/1), 6Cazenave (15/1), 3Breakout Ready (20/1), 13Very Valentino (20/1), 10Hey Flameaway (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 471589
🎯 Longshots: 47589211163121310
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:7Crazy Diamond (3/1)
Place:10Wytheville (5/2)
Show:2Can't Stop Willis (4/1)
Other contenders:5Jem's Hershey Kiss (20/1), 6Four Dimes (6/1), 8Berniedott (15/1)
Rest of field:9Fast Jimmy (8/1), 3Why Not Fly (12/1), 4Tegatron (15/1), 1Pick A Switch (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1072693
🎯 Longshots: 10729856341
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #10, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $58,000
Win:2Justifreak (3/1)
Place:4Captain Mercury (9/2)
Show:3Doroteo (2/1)
Other contenders:1Colt Forty Seven (6/1), 8Inordinary (8/1), 7Damascus Steel (6/1)
Rest of field:5Storm The Streets (10/1), 6Big Rog (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 324178
🎯 Longshots: 82153476
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $148,000
Win:3Encino (9/5)
Place:6Yinzer (5/2)
Show:5Johny's Rendezvous (7/2)
Other contenders:4Air Recruit (9/2), 1Neat (6/1)
Rest of field:2Echo Lane (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 365412
🎯 Longshots: 635421
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 9  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $36,000
Win:1Click (10/1)
Place:7Baby Hello (6/1)
Show:3Mckinzie's Glory (9/2)
Other contenders:4She's Gotta Go (8/1), 12Vinno Ronnie (10/1), 13Cavatelli (6/1), 2Motown Sound (5/1), 10Extreme Dream (8/1)
Rest of field:5Ballybay Beauty (12/1), 6Mighty Risky (10/1), 14Denise Says No (20/1), 11B D's Angel (15/1), 15Ride The Broom (20/1), 9Pinit Annie (10/1), 8Pauline's Angel (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3712134
🎯 Longshots: 134126105131192781415
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $75,000
Win:2National Forest (4/5)
Place:3Dark Sky (6/1)
Show:5Frosty Jack (4/1)
Other contenders:6Lowcountry Promise (6/1), 7Tyrone Terrific (8/1)
Rest of field:1Free And Happy (15/1), 4Authentic Surprise (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 253671
🎯 Longshots: 2567314
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:9Sutura (5/2)
Place:5Sweet Reward (9/2)
Show:10Beach Ballad (7/2)
Other contenders:6Hey Miss Olivia (4/1), 8Ralley To Me (10/1), 2Mundy Sweep (20/1), 4Abita Springs (12/1)
Rest of field:12Cheddar (12/1), 1Kristi's Spirit (12/1), 3Cocoa Bean (30/1), 11Toast The Star (20/1), 7Rumor Mill (15/1), 13Musical Mary (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9105684
🎯 Longshots: 91056842171112133
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #5, #10, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:1A La Vie (4/1)
Place:4Sing The Blues (10/1)
Show:2Peppermint Quill (3/1)
Other contenders:7Symmetric (9/2), 3Turtle Creek (5/1), 8Jackie's Lively (9/2)
Rest of field:9Eden's Charm (8/1), 5She's All Kristi (30/1), 6Charianna (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 127834
🎯 Longshots: 217843965
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:1The Grumpy Rabbit (7/5)
Place:6Just Singing (5/2)
Show:4My Steel Magnolia (4/1)
Other contenders:2Mighty Nora (8/1), 5Fire Moon (6/1)
Rest of field:3Lady Law (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 164523
🎯 Longshots: 163245
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:4Ironclad (5/2)
Place:7Paradise Street (7/2)
Show:5Lexi V. (5/1)
Other contenders:8Altadena (6/1), 1Acquazurra (6/1), 9Elusive Ring (8/1), 2Heitzgirl (15/1)
Rest of field:11Parisinthespring (15/1), 3Breakout Ready (20/1), 12Sheer Jazz (30/1), 6Cazenave (15/1), 13Very Valentino (20/1), 10Hey Flameaway (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 475819
🎯 Longshots: 47589211163121310
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:2Can't Stop Willis (4/1)
Place:7Crazy Diamond (3/1)
Show:10Wytheville (5/2)
Other contenders:9Fast Jimmy (8/1), 5Jem's Hershey Kiss (20/1), 8Berniedott (15/1)
Rest of field:6Four Dimes (6/1), 3Why Not Fly (12/1), 1Pick A Switch (30/1), 4Tegatron (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7102698
🎯 Longshots: 10729856341
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #10, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $58,000
Win:2Justifreak (3/1)
Place:3Doroteo (2/1)
Show:7Damascus Steel (6/1)
Other contenders:4Captain Mercury (9/2), 1Colt Forty Seven (6/1), 8Inordinary (8/1)
Rest of field:5Storm The Streets (10/1), 6Big Rog (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 324718
🎯 Longshots: 82153476
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $148,000
Win:6Yinzer (5/2)
Place:3Encino (9/5)
Show:5Johny's Rendezvous (7/2)
Other contenders:1Neat (6/1), 4Air Recruit (9/2)
Rest of field:2Echo Lane (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 365412
🎯 Longshots: 635421
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 9  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $36,000
Win:1Click (10/1)
Place:3Mckinzie's Glory (9/2)
Show:7Baby Hello (6/1)
Other contenders:13Cavatelli (6/1), 12Vinno Ronnie (10/1), 4She's Gotta Go (8/1), 2Motown Sound (5/1), 6Mighty Risky (10/1)
Rest of field:10Extreme Dream (8/1), 9Pinit Annie (10/1), 5Ballybay Beauty (12/1), 14Denise Says No (20/1), 11B D's Angel (15/1), 15Ride The Broom (20/1), 8Pauline's Angel (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3721314
🎯 Longshots: 134126105131192781415
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #7, #13  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #2 (68%) / R2: #9,#10,#5 (70%) / R3: #1,#4,#7 (64%)
$9 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 30%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #9,#10,#5 (70%) / R3: #1,#4,#7 (64%) / R4: #1,#6,#4 (72%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 32%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #1,#4,#7 (64%) / R4: #1,#6,#4 (72%) / R5: #7,#4,#5 (67%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 31%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #1,#6,#4 (72%) / R5: #7,#4,#5 (67%) / R6: #2,#7,#10 (70%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 34%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #2 (68%) / R2: #9,#10,#5 (70%) / R3: #1,#4,#7 (64%) / R4: #1,#6,#4 (72%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22%
Pick 4 R3-6R3: #1,#4,#7 (64%) / R4: #1,#6,#4 (72%) / R5: #7,#4,#5 (67%) / R6: #2,#7,#10 (70%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
A LA VIEABITA SPRINGSACQUAZURRAAIR RECRUITALTADENA
B D'S ANGELBABY HELLOBALLYBAY BEAUTYBEACH BALLADBERNIEDOTT
BREAKOUT READYCAN'T STOP WILLISCAPTAIN MERCURYCAVATELLICAZENAVE
CHEDDARCLICKCOCOA BEANCOLT FORTY SEVENCRAZY DIAMOND
DARK SKYDENISE SAYS NODOROTEOECHO LANEEDEN'S CHARM
ENCINOEXTREME DREAMFAST JIMMYFIRE MOONFOUR DIMES
FROSTY JACKHEITZGIRLHEY FLAMEAWAYHEY MISS OLIVIAINORDINARY
JACKIE'S LIVELYJEM'S HERSHEY KISSJOHNY'S RENDEZVOUSJUST SINGINGJUSTIFREAK
LADY LAWLEXI V.LOWCOUNTRY PROMISEMCKINZIE'S GLORYMIGHTY NORA
MOTOWN SOUNDMUNDY SWEEPMUSICAL MARYMY STEEL MAGNOLIANATIONAL FOREST
PARADISE STREETPARISINTHESPRINGPAULINE'S ANGELPEPPERMINT QUILLPICK A SWITCH
RALLEY TO MERIDE THE BROOMRUMOR MILLSHE'S ALL KRISTISHE'S GOTTA GO
SING THE BLUESSTORM THE STREETSSUTURASWEET REWARDSYMMETRIC
THE GRUMPY RABBITTOAST THE STARTURTLE CREEKTYRONE TERRIFICVERY VALENTINO
WHY NOT FLYWYTHEVILLEYINZER

 


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