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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Churchill Downs, October 29, 2026

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AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied

Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. In maiden races, where late money has the best record, Algo 2's morning pick follows the live betting favourite once the pool is open. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.

TrackRaceModelNew Top PickWhy
CDX3Model Algo 1#3 – Trim Castle1 scratch(es)
CDX3Model Algo 2 (Ensemble)#7 – Reza1 scratch(es)
CDX3Model Algo 3 (Win Prob)#8 – Cactus Closer1 scratch(es)
CDX3Model Weight set 2#7 – Reza1 scratch(es)
CDX3Model Weight set 3#3 – Trim Castle1 scratch(es)

Plays voided by scratches — these published value plays are officially scratched; win bets on them are refunds, so strike them from your card:

  • Trifecta play: CD Race 3 — Ruiva (SCRATCHED)


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $72,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Bright Skittle (8/5)
Place:4Quentin B (5/2)
Show:5Dark Force (7/2)
Other contenders:1Bemis (5/1), 2Circle Me (6/1)
Rest of field:3Mr. Tallymon (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 645123
🎯 Longshots: 645123
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $71,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Up The Creek (9/5)
Place:6Taqdeer (4/1)
Show:4Margoinabubblebath (3/1)
Other contenders:5Spencerian (5/1), 2Swiftwind (6/1)
Rest of field:1Musical Prayer (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 364521
🎯 Longshots: 361452
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:6Ruiva (4/5)
Place:7Reza (7/2)
Show:5Allura (8/1)
Other contenders:8Cactus Closer (6/1), 3Trim Castle (10/1), 4Nessy (15/1)
Rest of field:2Skepticism (20/1), 1Into Music (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 678534
🎯 Longshots: 65738421
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $62,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Watershed Moment (9/5)
Place:3Quinn's Promise (4/1)
Show:7Getting After It (8/1)
Other contenders:5Will Believe (9/2), 1French Mistress (7/2)
Rest of field:4Mustang Lady (10/1), 6Bamtwentyklater (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 231574
🎯 Longshots: 7246153
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7Texas Dandelion (5/2)
Place:2Big Luz (7/2)
Show:11Boss Lady Kar (4/1)
Other contenders:8Golden Sips (6/1), 9Callie's Dance (15/1), 6Denial (15/1), 10Aloha Magic (10/1)
Rest of field:5Amavida (20/1), 4Dream About (20/1), 1Bride (30/1), 3Higher Calling (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 72118910
🎯 Longshots: 7291186531014
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #11, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 3/8 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $127,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Paseo (2/1)
Place:3Onehotmess (7/2)
Show:1Struck At Midnight (3/1)
Other contenders:6Charm Of Venice (4/1), 2Marcinkowski (9/2)
Rest of field:5Heart Spin (15/1), 7Ring Rights (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 431625
🎯 Longshots: 4361527
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $58,000
Win:4Stay For The Boom (9/5)
Place:3Guardian (5/2)
Show:2White Whale (9/2)
Other contenders:6Trouble Ahead (7/2), 5Hesper (8/1), 8Dr Fenn (20/1)
Rest of field:7Colonel Compton (30/1), 1Malevaje (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 436258
🎯 Longshots: 34265781
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:7Mojacar (7/2)
Place:3We Be Mischief (4/1)
Show:11Stelvio Pass (6/1)
Other contenders:4Beijing (8/1), 10Alworth (6/1), 5Nomolimbo (15/1), 12Positano John (5/1)
Rest of field:2Good Company (12/1), 6Magic Moose (30/1), 8Navigate (30/1), 1Cowboys Time (20/1), 9Happy Mischief (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 731141012
🎯 Longshots: 734125111021698
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #11, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $134,000
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:7Mobula (8/5)
Place:8Grade A (5/2)
Show:1Spring Dancer (6/1)
Other contenders:3Social Belle (8/1), 6Emoji (6/1), 4Wisconsin Gal (10/1)
Rest of field:2J Z's Last Schance (15/1), 5Dream On Stormy (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 781364
🎯 Longshots: 78431652
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:4Himothy (3/1)
Place:3Mayweather (5/1)
Show:16Crazy Diamond (9/2)
Other contenders:2Elvis Tony (9/2), 1Dixie Devil (6/1), 15Melody Man (6/1), 9King Of Heat (15/1), 13Major Mack (12/1)
Rest of field:5Premiere Dancer (12/1), 10Task Force O (10/1), 12Wavefront (8/1), 6Berniedott (20/1), 11Amalgamate (20/1), 8Pargo (15/1), 7He Has Game (30/1), 14Pick A Switch (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 41632115
🎯 Longshots: 42131613121595106118714
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #16, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $72,000
Win:4Quentin B (5/2) 35% · fair 2-1 overlay +37%
Place:6Bright Skittle (8/5) 29% · fair 5-2 underlay -33%
Show:1Bemis (5/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:5Dark Force (7/2) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -55%, 2Circle Me (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -42%
Rest of field:3Mr. Tallymon (15/1) 2% · fair 51-1 underlay -71%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Quentin B — 35.4% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Quentin B35.4% ◀Bright Skittle — 29.4% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Bright Skittle29.4%Bemis — 13.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Bemis13.1%Dark Force — 11.3% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Dark Force11.3%Circle Me — 8.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Circle Me8.9%Mr. Tallymon — 1.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Mr. Tallymon1.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Quentin B35.4%2.5/1
Bright Skittle29.4%1.6/1
Bemis13.1%5/1
Dark Force11.3%3.5/1
Circle Me8.9%6/1
Mr. Tallymon1.9%15/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherQuentin B: model 35.4% vs market 22.6% (+12.8 points)Quentin B+12.8Bright Skittle: model 29.4% vs market 30.4% (-1.0 points)Bright Skittle-1.0Bemis: model 13.1% vs market 13.2% (-0.1 points)Bemis-0.1Dark Force: model 11.3% vs market 17.6% (-6.3 points)Dark Force-6.3Circle Me: model 8.9% vs market 11.3% (-2.4 points)Circle Me-2.4Mr. Tallymon: model 1.9% vs market 4.9% (-3.0 points)Mr. Tallymon-3.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Quentin B35.4%22.6%+12.8
Bright Skittle29.4%30.4%-1.0
Bemis13.1%13.2%-0.1
Dark Force11.3%17.6%-6.3
Circle Me8.9%11.3%-2.4
Mr. Tallymon1.9%4.9%-3.0
🌧️ Off-track: 645123
🎯 Longshots: 645123
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $71,000
Win:3Up The Creek (9/5) 31% · fair 2-1
Place:6Taqdeer (4/1) 30% · fair 5-2 overlay +71%
Show:5Spencerian (5/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -28%
Other contenders:2Swiftwind (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -25%, 4Margoinabubblebath (3/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -74%
Rest of field:1Musical Prayer (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -40%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Up The Creek — 31.4% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Up The Creek31.4% ◀Taqdeer — 29.9% win probability, morning line 4/1Taqdeer29.9%Spencerian — 12.6% win probability, morning line 5/1Spencerian12.6%Swiftwind — 11.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Swiftwind11.1%Margoinabubblebath — 8.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Margoinabubblebath8.0%Musical Prayer — 7.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Musical Prayer7.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Up The Creek31.4%1.8/1
Taqdeer29.9%4/1
Spencerian12.6%5/1
Swiftwind11.1%6/1
Margoinabubblebath8.0%3/1
Musical Prayer7.0%8/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherUp The Creek: model 31.4% vs market 29.1% (+2.3 points)Up The Creek+2.3Taqdeer: model 29.9% vs market 16.3% (+13.6 points)Taqdeer+13.6Spencerian: model 12.6% vs market 13.6% (-1.0 points)Spencerian-1.0Swiftwind: model 11.1% vs market 11.6% (-0.6 points)Swiftwind-0.6Margoinabubblebath: model 8.0% vs market 20.4% (-12.3 points)Margoinabubblebath-12.3Musical Prayer: model 7.0% vs market 9.0% (-2.1 points)Musical Prayer-2.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Up The Creek31.4%29.1%+2.3
Taqdeer29.9%16.3%+13.6
Spencerian12.6%13.6%-1.0
Swiftwind11.1%11.6%-0.6
Margoinabubblebath8.0%20.4%-12.3
Musical Prayer7.0%9.0%-2.1
🌧️ Off-track: 364521
🎯 Longshots: 361452
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:6Ruiva (4/5) 58% · fair 4-5
Place:8Cactus Closer (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Show:5Allura (8/1) 10% · fair 19-2
Other contenders:3Trim Castle (10/1) 8% · fair 23-2, 7Reza (7/2) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -71%, 4Nessy (15/1) 1% · fair 82-1 underlay -82%
Rest of field:2Skepticism (20/1) 1% · fair 165-2 underlay -76%, 1Into Music (30/1) 1% · fair 273-2 underlay -78%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Ruiva — 58.4% win probability, morning line 0.8/1Ruiva58.4% ◀Cactus Closer — 13.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Cactus Closer13.2%Allura — 9.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Allura9.6%Trim Castle — 8.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Trim Castle8.1%Reza — 7.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Reza7.6%Nessy — 1.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Nessy1.2%Skepticism — 1.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Skepticism1.2%Into Music — 0.7% win probability, morning line 30/1Into Music0.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Ruiva58.4%0.8/1
Cactus Closer13.2%6/1
Allura9.6%8/1
Trim Castle8.1%10/1
Reza7.6%3.5/1
Nessy1.2%15/1
Skepticism1.2%20/1
Into Music0.7%30/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRuiva: model 58.4% vs market 43.9% (+14.4 points)Ruiva+14.4Cactus Closer: model 13.2% vs market 11.3% (+1.9 points)Cactus Closer+1.9Allura: model 9.6% vs market 8.8% (+0.8 points)Allura+0.8Trim Castle: model 8.1% vs market 7.2% (+0.9 points)Trim Castle+0.9Reza: model 7.6% vs market 17.6% (-9.9 points)Reza-9.9Nessy: model 1.2% vs market 4.9% (-3.7 points)Nessy-3.7Skepticism: model 1.2% vs market 3.8% (-2.6 points)Skepticism-2.6Into Music: model 0.7% vs market 2.5% (-1.8 points)Into Music-1.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Ruiva58.4%43.9%+14.4
Cactus Closer13.2%11.3%+1.9
Allura9.6%8.8%+0.8
Trim Castle8.1%7.2%+0.9
Reza7.6%17.6%-9.9
Nessy1.2%4.9%-3.7
Skepticism1.2%3.8%-2.6
Into Music0.7%2.5%-1.8
🌧️ Off-track: 678534
🎯 Longshots: 65738421
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $62,000
Win:2Watershed Moment (9/5) 24% · fair 3-1 underlay -42%
Place:3Quinn's Promise (4/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Show:5Will Believe (9/2) 16% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:7Getting After It (8/1) 16% · fair 11-2 overlay +47%, 1French Mistress (7/2) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -56%
Rest of field:4Mustang Lady (10/1) 8% · fair 11-1, 6Bamtwentyklater (10/1) 8% · fair 11-1
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Watershed Moment — 24.3% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Watershed Moment24.3% ◀Quinn'S Promise — 16.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Quinn'S Promise16.4%Will Believe — 15.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Will Believe15.6%Getting After It — 15.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Getting After It15.5%French Mistress — 11.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1French Mistress11.2%Mustang Lady — 8.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Mustang Lady8.5%Bamtwentyklater — 8.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Bamtwentyklater8.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Watershed Moment24.3%1.8/1
Quinn'S Promise16.4%4/1
Will Believe15.6%4.5/1
Getting After It15.5%8/1
French Mistress11.2%3.5/1
Mustang Lady8.5%10/1
Bamtwentyklater8.4%10/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherWatershed Moment: model 24.3% vs market 28.5% (-4.2 points)Watershed Moment-4.2Quinn'S Promise: model 16.4% vs market 15.9% (+0.5 points)Quinn'S Promise+0.5Will Believe: model 15.6% vs market 14.5% (+1.1 points)Will Believe+1.1Getting After It: model 15.5% vs market 8.9% (+6.7 points)Getting After It+6.7French Mistress: model 11.2% vs market 17.7% (-6.5 points)French Mistress-6.5Mustang Lady: model 8.5% vs market 7.2% (+1.2 points)Mustang Lady+1.2Bamtwentyklater: model 8.4% vs market 7.2% (+1.2 points)Bamtwentyklater+1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Watershed Moment24.3%28.5%-4.2
Quinn'S Promise16.4%15.9%+0.5
Will Believe15.6%14.5%+1.1
Getting After It15.5%8.9%+6.7
French Mistress11.2%17.7%-6.5
Mustang Lady8.5%7.2%+1.2
Bamtwentyklater8.4%7.2%+1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 235174
🎯 Longshots: 7246153
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:7Texas Dandelion (5/2) 28% · fair 5-2
Place:2Big Luz (7/2) 21% · fair 4-1
Show:11Boss Lady Kar (4/1) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -31%
Other contenders:9Callie's Dance (15/1) 9% · fair 10-1 overlay +48%, 8Golden Sips (6/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -53%, 6Denial (15/1) 5% · fair 35-2, 10Aloha Magic (10/1) 4% · fair 25-1 underlay -60%
Rest of field:1Bride (30/1) 3% · fair 55-2, 3Higher Calling (15/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -51%, 5Amavida (20/1) 3% · fair 37-1 underlay -46%, 4Dream About (20/1) 2% · fair 107-2 underlay -63%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Texas Dandelion — 27.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Texas Dandelion27.7% ◀Big Luz — 21.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Big Luz21.0%Boss Lady Kar — 14.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Boss Lady Kar14.6%Callie'S Dance — 9.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Callie'S Dance9.0%Golden Sips — 7.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Golden Sips7.2%Denial — 5.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Denial5.5%Aloha Magic — 3.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Aloha Magic3.9%Bride — 3.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Bride3.5%Higher Calling — 3.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Higher Calling3.2%Amavida — 2.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Amavida2.6%Dream About — 1.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Dream About1.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Texas Dandelion27.7%2.5/1
Big Luz21.0%3.5/1
Boss Lady Kar14.6%4/1
Callie'S Dance9.0%15/1
Golden Sips7.2%6/1
Denial5.5%15/1
Aloha Magic3.9%10/1
Bride3.5%30/1
Higher Calling3.2%15/1
Amavida2.6%20/1
Dream About1.8%20/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTexas Dandelion: model 27.7% vs market 22.7% (+5.0 points)Texas Dandelion+5.0Big Luz: model 21.0% vs market 17.7% (+3.3 points)Big Luz+3.3Boss Lady Kar: model 14.6% vs market 15.9% (-1.3 points)Boss Lady Kar-1.3Callie'S Dance: model 9.0% vs market 5.0% (+4.0 points)Callie'S Dance+4.0Golden Sips: model 7.2% vs market 11.4% (-4.1 points)Golden Sips-4.1Denial: model 5.5% vs market 5.0% (+0.5 points)Denial+0.5Aloha Magic: model 3.9% vs market 7.2% (-3.4 points)Aloha Magic-3.4Bride: model 3.5% vs market 2.6% (+0.9 points)Bride+0.9Higher Calling: model 3.2% vs market 5.0% (-1.8 points)Higher Calling-1.8Amavida: model 2.6% vs market 3.8% (-1.2 points)Amavida-1.2Dream About: model 1.8% vs market 3.8% (-2.0 points)Dream About-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Texas Dandelion27.7%22.7%+5.0
Big Luz21.0%17.7%+3.3
Boss Lady Kar14.6%15.9%-1.3
Callie'S Dance9.0%5.0%+4.0
Golden Sips7.2%11.4%-4.1
Denial5.5%5.0%+0.5
Aloha Magic3.9%7.2%-3.4
Bride3.5%2.6%+0.9
Higher Calling3.2%5.0%-1.8
Amavida2.6%3.8%-1.2
Dream About1.8%3.8%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 72118109
🎯 Longshots: 7291186531014
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #11, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 3/8 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:3Onehotmess (7/2) 25% · fair 3-1
Place:4Paseo (2/1) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -44%
Show:1Struck At Midnight (3/1) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -30%
Other contenders:6Charm Of Venice (4/1) 18% · fair 9-2, 2Marcinkowski (9/2) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -51%
Rest of field:5Heart Spin (15/1) 5% · fair 19-1, 7Ring Rights (30/1) 2% · fair 64-1 underlay -53%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Onehotmess — 24.8% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Onehotmess24.8% ◀Paseo — 21.9% win probability, morning line 2/1Paseo21.9%Struck At Midnight — 19.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Struck At Midnight19.0%Charm Of Venice — 17.9% win probability, morning line 4/1Charm Of Venice17.9%Marcinkowski — 9.8% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Marcinkowski9.8%Heart Spin — 5.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Heart Spin5.0%Ring Rights — 1.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Ring Rights1.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Onehotmess24.8%3.5/1
Paseo21.9%2/1
Struck At Midnight19.0%3/1
Charm Of Venice17.9%4/1
Marcinkowski9.8%4.5/1
Heart Spin5.0%15/1
Ring Rights1.5%30/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherOnehotmess: model 24.8% vs market 17.3% (+7.5 points)Onehotmess+7.5Paseo: model 21.9% vs market 26.0% (-4.1 points)Paseo-4.1Struck At Midnight: model 19.0% vs market 19.5% (-0.5 points)Struck At Midnight-0.5Charm Of Venice: model 17.9% vs market 15.6% (+2.3 points)Charm Of Venice+2.3Marcinkowski: model 9.8% vs market 14.2% (-4.3 points)Marcinkowski-4.3Heart Spin: model 5.0% vs market 4.9% (+0.2 points)Heart Spin+0.2Ring Rights: model 1.5% vs market 2.5% (-1.0 points)Ring Rights-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Onehotmess24.8%17.3%+7.5
Paseo21.9%26.0%-4.1
Struck At Midnight19.0%19.5%-0.5
Charm Of Venice17.9%15.6%+2.3
Marcinkowski9.8%14.2%-4.3
Heart Spin5.0%4.9%+0.2
Ring Rights1.5%2.5%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 431625
🎯 Longshots: 4361527
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $58,000
Win:3Guardian (5/2) 27% · fair 5-2
Place:2White Whale (9/2) 22% · fair 7-2 overlay +30%
Show:4Stay For The Boom (9/5) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -50%
Other contenders:6Trouble Ahead (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -27%, 5Hesper (8/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -49%, 8Dr Fenn (20/1) 2% · fair 39-1 underlay -49%
Rest of field:7Colonel Compton (30/1) 2% · fair 93-2 underlay -35%, 1Malevaje (20/1) 1% · fair 79-1 underlay -75%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Guardian — 26.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Guardian26.7% ◀White Whale — 22.4% win probability, morning line 4.5/1White Whale22.4%Stay For The Boom — 21.8% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Stay For The Boom21.8%Trouble Ahead — 17.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Trouble Ahead17.2%Hesper — 6.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Hesper6.0%Dr Fenn — 2.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Dr Fenn2.5%Colonel Compton — 2.1% win probability, morning line 30/1Colonel Compton2.1%Malevaje — 1.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Malevaje1.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Guardian26.7%2.5/1
White Whale22.4%4.5/1
Stay For The Boom21.8%1.8/1
Trouble Ahead17.2%3.5/1
Hesper6.0%8/1
Dr Fenn2.5%20/1
Colonel Compton2.1%30/1
Malevaje1.3%20/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGuardian: model 26.7% vs market 22.2% (+4.5 points)Guardian+4.5White Whale: model 22.4% vs market 14.1% (+8.3 points)White Whale+8.3Stay For The Boom: model 21.8% vs market 27.8% (-6.0 points)Stay For The Boom-6.0Trouble Ahead: model 17.2% vs market 17.3% (-0.1 points)Trouble Ahead-0.1Hesper: model 6.0% vs market 8.6% (-2.6 points)Hesper-2.6Dr Fenn: model 2.5% vs market 3.7% (-1.2 points)Dr Fenn-1.2Colonel Compton: model 2.1% vs market 2.5% (-0.4 points)Colonel Compton-0.4Malevaje: model 1.3% vs market 3.7% (-2.5 points)Malevaje-2.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Guardian26.7%22.2%+4.5
White Whale22.4%14.1%+8.3
Stay For The Boom21.8%27.8%-6.0
Trouble Ahead17.2%17.3%-0.1
Hesper6.0%8.6%-2.6
Dr Fenn2.5%3.7%-1.2
Colonel Compton2.1%2.5%-0.4
Malevaje1.3%3.7%-2.5
🌧️ Off-track: 342658
🎯 Longshots: 34265781
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:3We Be Mischief (4/1) 21% · fair 4-1
Place:7Mojacar (7/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:11Stelvio Pass (6/1) 16% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:4Beijing (8/1) 15% · fair 11-2 overlay +42%, 10Alworth (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 5Nomolimbo (15/1) 7% · fair 14-1, 2Good Company (12/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -49%
Rest of field:12Positano John (5/1) 2% · fair 43-1 underlay -88%, 6Magic Moose (30/1) 2% · fair 129-2 underlay -53%, 8Navigate (30/1) 1% · fair 80-1 underlay -63%, 1Cowboys Time (20/1) 1% · fair 157-1 underlay -87%, 9Happy Mischief (20/1) 1% · fair 351-2 underlay -89%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

We Be Mischief — 20.5% win probability, morning line 4/1We Be Mischief20.5% ◀Mojacar — 20.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Mojacar20.4%Stelvio Pass — 15.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Stelvio Pass15.5%Beijing — 15.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Beijing15.1%Alworth — 11.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Alworth11.5%Nomolimbo — 6.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Nomolimbo6.6%Good Company — 4.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Good Company4.1%Positano John — 2.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Positano John2.3%Magic Moose — 1.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Magic Moose1.5%Navigate — 1.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Navigate1.2%Cowboys Time — 0.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Cowboys Time0.6%Happy Mischief — 0.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Happy Mischief0.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
We Be Mischief20.5%4/1
Mojacar20.4%3.5/1
Stelvio Pass15.5%6/1
Beijing15.1%8/1
Alworth11.5%6/1
Nomolimbo6.6%15/1
Good Company4.1%12/1
Positano John2.3%5/1
Magic Moose1.5%30/1
Navigate1.2%30/1
Cowboys Time0.6%20/1
Happy Mischief0.6%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherWe Be Mischief: model 20.5% vs market 15.6% (+4.9 points)We Be Mischief+4.9Mojacar: model 20.4% vs market 17.3% (+3.1 points)Mojacar+3.1Stelvio Pass: model 15.5% vs market 11.1% (+4.4 points)Stelvio Pass+4.4Beijing: model 15.1% vs market 8.6% (+6.4 points)Beijing+6.4Alworth: model 11.5% vs market 11.1% (+0.4 points)Alworth+0.4Nomolimbo: model 6.6% vs market 4.9% (+1.8 points)Nomolimbo+1.8Good Company: model 4.1% vs market 6.0% (-1.9 points)Good Company-1.9Positano John: model 2.3% vs market 13.0% (-10.7 points)Positano John-10.7Magic Moose: model 1.5% vs market 2.5% (-1.0 points)Magic Moose-1.0Navigate: model 1.2% vs market 2.5% (-1.3 points)Navigate-1.3Cowboys Time: model 0.6% vs market 3.7% (-3.1 points)Cowboys Time-3.1Happy Mischief: model 0.6% vs market 3.7% (-3.1 points)Happy Mischief-3.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
We Be Mischief20.5%15.6%+4.9
Mojacar20.4%17.3%+3.1
Stelvio Pass15.5%11.1%+4.4
Beijing15.1%8.6%+6.4
Alworth11.5%11.1%+0.4
Nomolimbo6.6%4.9%+1.8
Good Company4.1%6.0%-1.9
Positano John2.3%13.0%-10.7
Magic Moose1.5%2.5%-1.0
Navigate1.2%2.5%-1.3
Cowboys Time0.6%3.7%-3.1
Happy Mischief0.6%3.7%-3.1
🌧️ Off-track: 731110412
🎯 Longshots: 734125111021698
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #11, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $134,000
Win:8Grade A (5/2) 29% · fair 5-2
Place:7Mobula (8/5) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -48%
Show:3Social Belle (8/1) 14% · fair 13-2 overlay +26%
Other contenders:1Spring Dancer (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 4Wisconsin Gal (10/1) 8% · fair 11-1, 6Emoji (6/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -50%
Rest of field:2J Z's Last Schance (15/1) 3% · fair 73-2 underlay -59%, 5Dream On Stormy (15/1) 2% · fair 54-1 underlay -72%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Grade A — 29.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Grade A29.3% ◀Mobula — 24.6% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Mobula24.6%Social Belle — 13.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Social Belle13.6%Spring Dancer — 12.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Spring Dancer12.1%Wisconsin Gal — 8.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Wisconsin Gal8.3%Emoji — 7.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Emoji7.7%J Z'S Last Schance — 2.7% win probability, morning line 15/1J Z'S Last Schance2.7%Dream On Stormy — 1.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Dream On Stormy1.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Grade A29.3%2.5/1
Mobula24.6%1.6/1
Social Belle13.6%8/1
Spring Dancer12.1%6/1
Wisconsin Gal8.3%10/1
Emoji7.7%6/1
J Z'S Last Schance2.7%15/1
Dream On Stormy1.8%15/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGrade A: model 29.3% vs market 22.3% (+7.0 points)Grade A+7.0Mobula: model 24.6% vs market 30.0% (-5.4 points)Mobula-5.4Social Belle: model 13.6% vs market 8.7% (+4.9 points)Social Belle+4.9Spring Dancer: model 12.1% vs market 11.1% (+0.9 points)Spring Dancer+0.9Wisconsin Gal: model 8.3% vs market 7.1% (+1.2 points)Wisconsin Gal+1.2Emoji: model 7.7% vs market 11.1% (-3.5 points)Emoji-3.5J Z'S Last Schance: model 2.7% vs market 4.9% (-2.2 points)J Z'S Last Schance-2.2Dream On Stormy: model 1.8% vs market 4.9% (-3.1 points)Dream On Stormy-3.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Grade A29.3%22.3%+7.0
Mobula24.6%30.0%-5.4
Social Belle13.6%8.7%+4.9
Spring Dancer12.1%11.1%+0.9
Wisconsin Gal8.3%7.1%+1.2
Emoji7.7%11.1%-3.5
J Z'S Last Schance2.7%4.9%-2.2
Dream On Stormy1.8%4.9%-3.1
🌧️ Off-track: 781364
🎯 Longshots: 78431652
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:3Mayweather (5/1) 15% · fair 6-1
Place:2Elvis Tony (9/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -30%
Show:4Himothy (3/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -57%
Other contenders:15Melody Man (6/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -35%, 16Crazy Diamond (9/2) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -52%, 1Dixie Devil (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -40%, 5Premiere Dancer (12/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -29%, 10Task Force O (10/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -47%
Rest of field:9King Of Heat (15/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -26%, 13Major Mack (12/1) 4% · fair 27-1 underlay -55%, 12Wavefront (8/1) 3% · fair 59-2 underlay -73%, 6Berniedott (20/1) 2% · fair 79-2 underlay -49%, 8Pargo (15/1) 2% · fair 83-2 underlay -64%, 11Amalgamate (20/1) 2% · fair 48-1 underlay -58%, 7He Has Game (30/1) 2% · fair 131-2 underlay -54%, 14Pick A Switch (30/1) 0% · fair 342-1 underlay -91%
Race 10 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Mayweather — 14.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Mayweather14.7% ◀Elvis Tony — 13.4% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Elvis Tony13.4%Himothy — 12.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Himothy12.5%Melody Man — 9.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Melody Man9.7%Crazy Diamond — 9.7% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Crazy Diamond9.7%Dixie Devil — 9.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Dixie Devil9.1%Premiere Dancer — 5.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Premiere Dancer5.6%Task Force O — 5.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Task Force O5.0%King Of Heat — 4.7% win probability, morning line 15/1King Of Heat4.7%Major Mack — 3.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Major Mack3.6%Wavefront — 3.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Wavefront3.3%Berniedott — 2.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Berniedott2.5%Pargo — 2.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Pargo2.4%Amalgamate — 2.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Amalgamate2.0%He Has Game — 1.5% win probability, morning line 30/1He Has Game1.5%Pick A Switch — 0.3% win probability, morning line 30/1Pick A Switch0.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Mayweather14.7%5/1
Elvis Tony13.4%4.5/1
Himothy12.5%3/1
Melody Man9.7%6/1
Crazy Diamond9.7%4.5/1
Dixie Devil9.1%6/1
Premiere Dancer5.6%12/1
Task Force O5.0%10/1
King Of Heat4.7%15/1
Major Mack3.6%12/1
Wavefront3.3%8/1
Berniedott2.5%20/1
Pargo2.4%15/1
Amalgamate2.0%20/1
He Has Game1.5%30/1
Pick A Switch0.3%30/1
Race 10 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMayweather: model 14.7% vs market 9.8% (+4.9 points)Mayweather+4.9Elvis Tony: model 13.4% vs market 10.7% (+2.8 points)Elvis Tony+2.8Himothy: model 12.5% vs market 14.6% (-2.1 points)Himothy-2.1Melody Man: model 9.7% vs market 8.4% (+1.4 points)Melody Man+1.4Crazy Diamond: model 9.7% vs market 10.7% (-0.9 points)Crazy Diamond-0.9Dixie Devil: model 9.1% vs market 8.4% (+0.7 points)Dixie Devil+0.7Premiere Dancer: model 5.6% vs market 4.5% (+1.1 points)Premiere Dancer+1.1Task Force O: model 5.0% vs market 5.3% (-0.3 points)Task Force O-0.3King Of Heat: model 4.7% vs market 3.7% (+1.0 points)King Of Heat+1.0Major Mack: model 3.6% vs market 4.5% (-0.9 points)Major Mack-0.9Wavefront: model 3.3% vs market 6.5% (-3.2 points)Wavefront-3.2Berniedott: model 2.5% vs market 2.8% (-0.3 points)Berniedott-0.3Pargo: model 2.4% vs market 3.7% (-1.3 points)Pargo-1.3Amalgamate: model 2.0% vs market 2.8% (-0.8 points)Amalgamate-0.8He Has Game: model 1.5% vs market 1.9% (-0.4 points)He Has Game-0.4Pick A Switch: model 0.3% vs market 1.9% (-1.6 points)Pick A Switch-1.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Mayweather14.7%9.8%+4.9
Elvis Tony13.4%10.7%+2.8
Himothy12.5%14.6%-2.1
Melody Man9.7%8.4%+1.4
Crazy Diamond9.7%10.7%-0.9
Dixie Devil9.1%8.4%+0.7
Premiere Dancer5.6%4.5%+1.1
Task Force O5.0%5.3%-0.3
King Of Heat4.7%3.7%+1.0
Major Mack3.6%4.5%-0.9
Wavefront3.3%6.5%-3.2
Berniedott2.5%2.8%-0.3
Pargo2.4%3.7%-1.3
Amalgamate2.0%2.8%-0.8
He Has Game1.5%1.9%-0.4
Pick A Switch0.3%1.9%-1.6
🌧️ Off-track: 43216151
🎯 Longshots: 42131613121595106118714
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #15  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Churchill Downs — average winning payout

What a $2 win bet returned WHEN THE PICK WON. 452 graded races at Churchill Downs, 2026-04-25 to 2026-09-27.

$0$2$4$6$8Our top pick: $6.00 from 121 racesOur top pick$6.00Morning-line favourite: $5.09 from 123 racesMorning-line favourite$5.09

This is the size of a winning payout, not a measure of profit — a pick that wins less often at a longer price can average more per winner and still lose money over the month. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupAverage payoutWinners
Our top pick$6.00121
Morning-line favourite$5.09123
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $72,000
Win:6Bright Skittle (8/5)
Place:4Quentin B (5/2)
Show:5Dark Force (7/2)
Other contenders:1Bemis (5/1), 2Circle Me (6/1)
Rest of field:3Mr. Tallymon (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 645123
🎯 Longshots: 645123
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $71,000
Win:3Up The Creek (9/5)
Place:4Margoinabubblebath (3/1)
Show:6Taqdeer (4/1)
Other contenders:5Spencerian (5/1), 2Swiftwind (6/1)
Rest of field:1Musical Prayer (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 346521
🎯 Longshots: 361452
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:6Ruiva (4/5)
Place:3Trim Castle (10/1)
Show:8Cactus Closer (6/1)
Other contenders:7Reza (7/2), 5Allura (8/1), 2Skepticism (20/1)
Rest of field:4Nessy (15/1), 1Into Music (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 678534
🎯 Longshots: 65738421
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $62,000
Win:2Watershed Moment (9/5)
Place:5Will Believe (9/2)
Show:3Quinn's Promise (4/1)
Other contenders:1French Mistress (7/2), 7Getting After It (8/1)
Rest of field:4Mustang Lady (10/1), 6Bamtwentyklater (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 231574
🎯 Longshots: 7246153
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:7Texas Dandelion (5/2)
Place:2Big Luz (7/2)
Show:11Boss Lady Kar (4/1)
Other contenders:9Callie's Dance (15/1), 10Aloha Magic (10/1), 6Denial (15/1), 8Golden Sips (6/1)
Rest of field:5Amavida (20/1), 3Higher Calling (15/1), 4Dream About (20/1), 1Bride (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 72118109
🎯 Longshots: 7291186531014
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #11, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 3/8 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:4Paseo (2/1)
Place:3Onehotmess (7/2)
Show:1Struck At Midnight (3/1)
Other contenders:6Charm Of Venice (4/1), 2Marcinkowski (9/2)
Rest of field:5Heart Spin (15/1), 7Ring Rights (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 413625
🎯 Longshots: 4361527
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $58,000
Win:3Guardian (5/2)
Place:4Stay For The Boom (9/5)
Show:6Trouble Ahead (7/2)
Other contenders:2White Whale (9/2), 5Hesper (8/1), 8Dr Fenn (20/1)
Rest of field:7Colonel Compton (30/1), 1Malevaje (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 436258
🎯 Longshots: 34265781
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:3We Be Mischief (4/1)
Place:7Mojacar (7/2)
Show:4Beijing (8/1)
Other contenders:11Stelvio Pass (6/1), 10Alworth (6/1), 12Positano John (5/1), 2Good Company (12/1)
Rest of field:5Nomolimbo (15/1), 8Navigate (30/1), 6Magic Moose (30/1), 1Cowboys Time (20/1), 9Happy Mischief (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 731112104
🎯 Longshots: 734125111021698
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #4, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $134,000
Win:7Mobula (8/5)
Place:8Grade A (5/2)
Show:1Spring Dancer (6/1)
Other contenders:3Social Belle (8/1), 4Wisconsin Gal (10/1), 6Emoji (6/1)
Rest of field:5Dream On Stormy (15/1), 2J Z's Last Schance (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 781634
🎯 Longshots: 78431652
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:2Elvis Tony (9/2)
Place:3Mayweather (5/1)
Show:4Himothy (3/1)
Other contenders:15Melody Man (6/1), 16Crazy Diamond (9/2), 1Dixie Devil (6/1), 10Task Force O (10/1), 12Wavefront (8/1)
Rest of field:9King Of Heat (15/1), 5Premiere Dancer (12/1), 13Major Mack (12/1), 11Amalgamate (20/1), 8Pargo (15/1), 6Berniedott (20/1), 7He Has Game (30/1), 14Pick A Switch (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 42316151
🎯 Longshots: 42131613121595106118714
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #4, #15  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #6 over #4 ($1 straight; box #6-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #4, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #3 over #6 ($1 straight; box #3-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #6, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #6 over #7 ($1 straight; box #6-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #3, #8, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #2 over #3 ($1 straight; box #2-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #1, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #7 over #2 ($1 straight; box #7-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #11 over #7, #2, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #4 over #3 ($1 straight; box #4-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #1, #5, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #4, #2, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #7 over #3 ($1 straight; box #7-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #7, #4, #11 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #7 over #8 ($1 straight; box #7-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #8, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 10AI Exacta: #4 over #16 ($1 straight; box #4-#16 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #2, #4, #15 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.38 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
59Callie'S Dance15/1—9.6%+53.6%0.89%$0.89
1013Major Mack12/1—8.2%+7.2%0.15%$0.15
TOTAL across 2 plays:1.0%$1.04
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $72,000
Win:6Bright Skittle (8/5)
Place:4Quentin B (5/2)
Show:5Dark Force (7/2)
Other contenders:1Bemis (5/1), 2Circle Me (6/1)
Rest of field:3Mr. Tallymon (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 645123
🎯 Longshots: 645123
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $71,000
Win:3Up The Creek (9/5)
Place:4Margoinabubblebath (3/1)
Show:6Taqdeer (4/1)
Other contenders:5Spencerian (5/1), 2Swiftwind (6/1)
Rest of field:1Musical Prayer (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 346521
🎯 Longshots: 361452
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:6Ruiva (4/5)
Place:7Reza (7/2)
Show:8Cactus Closer (6/1)
Other contenders:5Allura (8/1), 3Trim Castle (10/1), 4Nessy (15/1)
Rest of field:2Skepticism (20/1), 1Into Music (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 678534
🎯 Longshots: 65738421
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #8, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $62,000
Win:3Quinn's Promise (4/1)
Place:2Watershed Moment (9/5)
Show:7Getting After It (8/1)
Other contenders:1French Mistress (7/2), 5Will Believe (9/2)
Rest of field:4Mustang Lady (10/1), 6Bamtwentyklater (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 231574
🎯 Longshots: 7246153
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:7Texas Dandelion (5/2)
Place:2Big Luz (7/2)
Show:11Boss Lady Kar (4/1)
Other contenders:9Callie's Dance (15/1), 8Golden Sips (6/1), 10Aloha Magic (10/1), 6Denial (15/1)
Rest of field:5Amavida (20/1), 3Higher Calling (15/1), 4Dream About (20/1), 1Bride (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 72118910
🎯 Longshots: 7291186531014
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #11, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 3/8 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:3Onehotmess (7/2)
Place:4Paseo (2/1)
Show:6Charm Of Venice (4/1)
Other contenders:1Struck At Midnight (3/1), 2Marcinkowski (9/2)
Rest of field:5Heart Spin (15/1), 7Ring Rights (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 431625
🎯 Longshots: 4361527
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $58,000
Win:3Guardian (5/2)
Place:4Stay For The Boom (9/5)
Show:6Trouble Ahead (7/2)
Other contenders:2White Whale (9/2), 5Hesper (8/1), 8Dr Fenn (20/1)
Rest of field:7Colonel Compton (30/1), 1Malevaje (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 436258
🎯 Longshots: 34265781
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:7Mojacar (7/2)
Place:4Beijing (8/1)
Show:3We Be Mischief (4/1)
Other contenders:11Stelvio Pass (6/1), 12Positano John (5/1), 10Alworth (6/1), 2Good Company (12/1)
Rest of field:5Nomolimbo (15/1), 1Cowboys Time (20/1), 9Happy Mischief (20/1), 6Magic Moose (30/1), 8Navigate (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 731211104
🎯 Longshots: 734125111021698
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #3, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $134,000
Win:7Mobula (8/5)
Place:8Grade A (5/2)
Show:4Wisconsin Gal (10/1)
Other contenders:1Spring Dancer (6/1), 6Emoji (6/1), 3Social Belle (8/1)
Rest of field:2J Z's Last Schance (15/1), 5Dream On Stormy (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 781643
🎯 Longshots: 78431652
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:2Elvis Tony (9/2)
Place:4Himothy (3/1)
Show:13Major Mack (12/1)
Other contenders:3Mayweather (5/1), 16Crazy Diamond (9/2), 1Dixie Devil (6/1), 15Melody Man (6/1), 12Wavefront (8/1)
Rest of field:5Premiere Dancer (12/1), 10Task Force O (10/1), 9King Of Heat (15/1), 8Pargo (15/1), 6Berniedott (20/1), 11Amalgamate (20/1), 7He Has Game (30/1), 14Pick A Switch (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 42316115
🎯 Longshots: 42131613121595106118714
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #13, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $72,000
Win:6Bright Skittle (8/5)
Place:4Quentin B (5/2)
Show:1Bemis (5/1)
Other contenders:5Dark Force (7/2), 2Circle Me (6/1)
Rest of field:3Mr. Tallymon (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 645123
🎯 Longshots: 645123
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $71,000
Win:3Up The Creek (9/5)
Place:6Taqdeer (4/1)
Show:4Margoinabubblebath (3/1)
Other contenders:5Spencerian (5/1), 2Swiftwind (6/1)
Rest of field:1Musical Prayer (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 364521
🎯 Longshots: 361452
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:6Ruiva (4/5)
Place:3Trim Castle (10/1)
Show:8Cactus Closer (6/1)
Other contenders:5Allura (8/1), 7Reza (7/2), 2Skepticism (20/1)
Rest of field:4Nessy (15/1), 1Into Music (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 678354
🎯 Longshots: 65738421
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #8, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $62,000
Win:2Watershed Moment (9/5)
Place:1French Mistress (7/2)
Show:3Quinn's Promise (4/1)
Other contenders:5Will Believe (9/2), 7Getting After It (8/1)
Rest of field:4Mustang Lady (10/1), 6Bamtwentyklater (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 213574
🎯 Longshots: 7246153
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:11Boss Lady Kar (4/1)
Place:7Texas Dandelion (5/2)
Show:2Big Luz (7/2)
Other contenders:9Callie's Dance (15/1), 10Aloha Magic (10/1), 6Denial (15/1), 8Golden Sips (6/1)
Rest of field:5Amavida (20/1), 4Dream About (20/1), 1Bride (30/1), 3Higher Calling (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 71128109
🎯 Longshots: 7291186531014
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #7, #2, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 3/8 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:4Paseo (2/1)
Place:1Struck At Midnight (3/1)
Show:5Heart Spin (15/1)
Other contenders:3Onehotmess (7/2), 6Charm Of Venice (4/1)
Rest of field:2Marcinkowski (9/2), 7Ring Rights (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 413625
🎯 Longshots: 4361527
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $58,000
Win:3Guardian (5/2)
Place:4Stay For The Boom (9/5)
Show:2White Whale (9/2)
Other contenders:6Trouble Ahead (7/2), 5Hesper (8/1), 7Colonel Compton (30/1)
Rest of field:8Dr Fenn (20/1), 1Malevaje (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 436258
🎯 Longshots: 34265781
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:3We Be Mischief (4/1)
Place:7Mojacar (7/2)
Show:4Beijing (8/1)
Other contenders:11Stelvio Pass (6/1), 10Alworth (6/1), 5Nomolimbo (15/1), 12Positano John (5/1)
Rest of field:2Good Company (12/1), 6Magic Moose (30/1), 1Cowboys Time (20/1), 8Navigate (30/1), 9Happy Mischief (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 371110124
🎯 Longshots: 734125111021698
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #4, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $134,000
Win:7Mobula (8/5)
Place:8Grade A (5/2)
Show:1Spring Dancer (6/1)
Other contenders:4Wisconsin Gal (10/1), 3Social Belle (8/1), 6Emoji (6/1)
Rest of field:5Dream On Stormy (15/1), 2J Z's Last Schance (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 781364
🎯 Longshots: 78431652
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:3Mayweather (5/1)
Place:2Elvis Tony (9/2)
Show:4Himothy (3/1)
Other contenders:15Melody Man (6/1), 16Crazy Diamond (9/2), 1Dixie Devil (6/1), 13Major Mack (12/1), 9King Of Heat (15/1)
Rest of field:5Premiere Dancer (12/1), 10Task Force O (10/1), 12Wavefront (8/1), 6Berniedott (20/1), 11Amalgamate (20/1), 8Pargo (15/1), 7He Has Game (30/1), 14Pick A Switch (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 42316151
🎯 Longshots: 42131613121595106118714
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #15  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #4,#6 (65%) / R2: #3,#6 (61%) / R3: #6,#8 (72%)
$8 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 28%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #3,#6 (61%) / R3: #6,#8 (72%) / R4: #2,#3,#5 (56%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #6,#8 (72%) / R4: #2,#3,#5 (56%) / R5: #7,#2,#11 (63%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #7,#2,#11 (63%) / R6: #3,#4,#1 (66%) / R7: #3,#2,#4 (71%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 30%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #4,#6 (65%) / R2: #3,#6 (61%) / R3: #6,#8 (72%) / R4: #2,#3,#5 (56%)
$24 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 16%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #3,#6 (61%) / R3: #6,#8 (72%) / R4: #2,#3,#5 (56%) / R5: #7,#2,#11 (63%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 16%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ALLURAALOHA MAGICALWORTHAMALGAMATEAMAVIDA
BEIJINGBEMISBERNIEDOTTBIG LUZBOSS LADY KAR
BRIGHT SKITTLECACTUS CLOSERCALLIE'S DANCECHARM OF VENICECIRCLE ME
COWBOYS TIMECRAZY DIAMONDDARK FORCEDENIALDIXIE DEVIL
DREAM ABOUTDREAM ON STORMYELVIS TONYEMOJIFRENCH MISTRESS
GOLDEN SIPSGOOD COMPANYGRADE AGUARDIANHAPPY MISCHIEF
HEART SPINHESPERHIGHER CALLINGHIMOTHYINTO MUSIC
KING OF HEATMAGIC MOOSEMAJOR MACKMALEVAJEMARCINKOWSKI
MAYWEATHERMELODY MANMOBULAMOJACARMR. TALLYMON
MUSTANG LADYNAVIGATENESSYNOMOLIMBOONEHOTMESS
PASEOPICK A SWITCHPOSITANO JOHNPREMIERE DANCERQUENTIN B
REZARING RIGHTSRUIVASKEPTICISMSOCIAL BELLE
SPRING DANCERSTAY FOR THE BOOMSTELVIO PASSSTRUCK AT MIDNIGHTSWIFTWIND
TASK FORCE OTEXAS DANDELIONTRIM CASTLETROUBLE AHEADUP THE CREEK
WAVEFRONTWE BE MISCHIEFWHITE WHALEWILL BELIEVEWISCONSIN GAL

 


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