Posted inAnalysis Picks

Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Churchill Downs, September 11, 2026

No CommentsPosted inAnalysis, Picks


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $78,000
Win:3 – Tarantino (7/5)
Place:4 – Barksdale (5/2)
Show:1 – Mitty's Griddy (4/1)
Other contenders:5 – Accretive (8/1), 6 – Tom Cat Tuesday (6/1)
Rest of field:2 – Shan (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-1-2-6-5
🎯 Longshots: 3-4-5-2-1-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:9 – King Crusher (4/1)
Place:5 – Trixie Barry (3/1)
Show:8 – Chasing Em (7/2)
Other contenders:3 – Joe Joe Dude (15/1), 7 – Shaved Ice (5/1), 6 – Don't Kick Me (6/1)
Rest of field:1 – Zimomo (15/1), 4 – High Status (10/1), 2 – Cantkeepagoodmndwn (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-9-3-8-7-6
🎯 Longshots: 5-1-9-4-8-3-6-2-7
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #5, #8, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:3 – Never A Doubt (9/5)
Place:4 – Sargent Bilko (7/5)
Show:6 – Issachar (10/1)
Other contenders:2 – Red Sun (8/1), 1 – Title Worthy (7/2)
Rest of field:5 – Fortune King (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-4-1-2-6
🎯 Longshots: 4-3-2-6-1-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:1 – Light Halo (8/1)
Place:2 – She's Icy (15/1)
Show:3 – Speightful Moon (30/1)
Other contenders:4 – Miss Jesse (10/1), 5 – Midnight Yell (6/1), 6 – Drexel Drive (10/1), 7 – Greatest Hits (7/2), 8 – Getaway Girl (9/2)
Rest of field:9 – Jus Like Always (8/1), 10 – Bourbon O'clock (12/1), 11 – Secret Light (15/1), 12 – New York To Paris (10/1), 13 – Rockie Rockie (3/1), 14 – Forgive Me (4/1), 15 – Chickies Perch (8/1), 16 – Silk Street (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-3-4-5-6
🎯 Longshots: 1-13-4-10-11-7-14-5-9-15-12-6-2-8-16-3
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $76,000
Win:8 – Stone County (4/1)
Place:2 – Ecosystem (9/2)
Show:1 – Silver Sniper (3/1)
Other contenders:4 – Ring Curl (8/1), 7 – Join (5/1), 9 – Valiant Humor (8/1)
Rest of field:3 – White Whale (15/1), 6 – Good Mojo (6/1), 5 – Hillbilly Daydream (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-8-2-4-3-9
🎯 Longshots: 1-9-4-8-3-5-7-6-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $36,000
Win:7 – Prince Of Light (9/2)
Place:14 – Inordinary (4/1)
Show:11 – Bird The Legend (8/1)
Other contenders:9 – Kid Twist (7/2), 1 – Compressed (10/1), 2 – Wild Recruit (6/1), 5 – Romantic Lead (8/1), 3 – Gray Taps (12/1)
Rest of field:6 – Frosted Bull (10/1), 4 – Longstrider (10/1), 16 – Papiamento (15/1), 8 – Impavido (15/1), 12 – Prince J J (15/1), 10 – Coal Fired (30/1), 13 – Valiant Award (30/1), 15 – Dewy's Denali (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 11-9-4-1-16-5
🎯 Longshots: 11-1-3-14-7-9-5-6-4-16-8-12-2-10-15-13
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #14, #11, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:1 – Guiding Star (9/2)
Place:2 – Maximization (8/1)
Show:3 – Appeals To Me (10/1)
Other contenders:4 – Cortina Gold (5/1), 5 – Ice Empress (6/1), 6 – Easy Loving (20/1), 7 – Prosecco (10/1), 8 – Miss Moneyball (15/1)
Rest of field:9 – Cosmic Creed (12/1), 10 – Tess Me Not (15/1), 11 – Mischief Bound (4/1), 12 – Convincing Smile (20/1), 13 – Aegean (6/1), 14 – Twenty Three Gold (10/1), 15 – Global Equity (12/1), 16 – Blue Hill (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-3-4-5-6
🎯 Longshots: 7-3-16-14-2-9-15-12-11-1-6-5-4-10-8-13
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $62,000
Win:3 – Tiz Mary's Comet (7/2)
Place:10 – Capital Connection (5/1)
Show:4 – Keep On Moving (6/1)
Other contenders:9 – Captain Mercury (8/1), 12 – Just Asap (10/1), 7 – Trouble Ahead (15/1), 11 – Il Cavallino (6/1)
Rest of field:1 – Editor (8/1), 2 – Fistfulofmoney (12/1), 8 – Colonel Caliente (12/1), 6 – Storm The Streets (20/1), 5 – Lil Muggs (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8-7-4-3-10-11
🎯 Longshots: 9-12-6-5-3-1-2-8-7-10-4-11
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #10, #4, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $134,000
Win:3 – Blue Fire (4/1)
Place:7 – Being Myself (5/2)
Show:6 – White Rocks (7/2)
Other contenders:8 – Amarth (10/1), 5 – Union Mist (6/1), 9 – Gowells Delight (8/1)
Rest of field:4 – Princess Aliyah (12/1), 2 – Rando (8/1), 1 – Vino Tiempo (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9-3-7-8-1-5
🎯 Longshots: 9-2-8-7-3-4-5-6-1
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #6, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $57,000
Win:7 – One More Time (5/2)
Place:9 – Wicked Gun (3/1)
Show:3 – Roguishness (4/1)
Other contenders:1 – He Has Game (6/1), 11 – It's Final (12/1), 10 – Flume's Vino (20/1), 4 – Positive Equity (10/1)
Rest of field:5 – Otzelberger (15/1), 2 – Unconnected (50/1), 6 – El Ramundo (20/1), 8 – Obra Prima (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9-7-3-11-10-4
🎯 Longshots: 7-11-3-9-10-2-4-5-1-8-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #9, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $78,000
Win:3 – Tarantino (7/5)
Place:4 – Barksdale (5/2)
Show:1 – Mitty's Griddy (4/1)
Other contenders:6 – Tom Cat Tuesday (6/1), 5 – Accretive (8/1)
Rest of field:2 – Shan (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-6-2-1-5
🎯 Longshots: 3-4-5-2-1-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:5 – Trixie Barry (3/1)
Place:9 – King Crusher (4/1)
Show:8 – Chasing Em (7/2)
Other contenders:6 – Don't Kick Me (6/1), 7 – Shaved Ice (5/1), 3 – Joe Joe Dude (15/1)
Rest of field:4 – High Status (10/1), 1 – Zimomo (15/1), 2 – Cantkeepagoodmndwn (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3-5-8-6-7-4
🎯 Longshots: 5-1-9-4-8-3-6-2-7
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #9, #8, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:4 – Sargent Bilko (7/5)
Place:3 – Never A Doubt (9/5)
Show:1 – Title Worthy (7/2)
Other contenders:2 – Red Sun (8/1), 6 – Issachar (10/1)
Rest of field:5 – Fortune King (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-4-3-1-2-6
🎯 Longshots: 4-3-2-6-1-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:7 – Greatest Hits (7/2)
Place:13 – Rockie Rockie (3/1)
Show:14 – Forgive Me (4/1)
Other contenders:8 – Getaway Girl (9/2), 1 – Light Halo (8/1), 5 – Midnight Yell (6/1), 9 – Jus Like Always (8/1), 15 – Chickies Perch (8/1)
Rest of field:4 – Miss Jesse (10/1), 6 – Drexel Drive (10/1), 12 – New York To Paris (10/1), 10 – Bourbon O'clock (12/1), 11 – Secret Light (15/1), 2 – She's Icy (15/1), 16 – Silk Street (20/1), 3 – Speightful Moon (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-13-14-8-1-5
🎯 Longshots: 1-13-4-10-11-7-14-5-9-15-12-6-2-8-16-3
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #13, #14, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $76,000
Win:1 – Silver Sniper (3/1)
Place:2 – Ecosystem (9/2)
Show:8 – Stone County (4/1)
Other contenders:7 – Join (5/1), 4 – Ring Curl (8/1), 9 – Valiant Humor (8/1)
Rest of field:6 – Good Mojo (6/1), 3 – White Whale (15/1), 5 – Hillbilly Daydream (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-8-3-5-4
🎯 Longshots: 1-9-4-8-3-5-7-6-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $36,000
Win:14 – Inordinary (4/1)
Place:7 – Prince Of Light (9/2)
Show:9 – Kid Twist (7/2)
Other contenders:2 – Wild Recruit (6/1), 11 – Bird The Legend (8/1), 4 – Longstrider (10/1), 16 – Papiamento (15/1), 1 – Compressed (10/1)
Rest of field:5 – Romantic Lead (8/1), 6 – Frosted Bull (10/1), 3 – Gray Taps (12/1), 8 – Impavido (15/1), 12 – Prince J J (15/1), 13 – Valiant Award (30/1), 10 – Coal Fired (30/1), 15 – Dewy's Denali (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-11-16-9-15-10
🎯 Longshots: 11-1-3-14-7-9-5-6-4-16-8-12-2-10-15-13
🎫 Trifecta play: #14 over #7, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:5 – Ice Empress (6/1)
Place:1 – Guiding Star (9/2)
Show:11 – Mischief Bound (4/1)
Other contenders:4 – Cortina Gold (5/1), 2 – Maximization (8/1), 7 – Prosecco (10/1), 13 – Aegean (6/1), 16 – Blue Hill (8/1)
Rest of field:3 – Appeals To Me (10/1), 15 – Global Equity (12/1), 10 – Tess Me Not (15/1), 14 – Twenty Three Gold (10/1), 9 – Cosmic Creed (12/1), 8 – Miss Moneyball (15/1), 12 – Convincing Smile (20/1), 6 – Easy Loving (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-1-11-4-2-7
🎯 Longshots: 7-3-16-14-2-9-15-12-11-1-6-5-4-10-8-13
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #11, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $62,000
Win:3 – Tiz Mary's Comet (7/2)
Place:10 – Capital Connection (5/1)
Show:1 – Editor (8/1)
Other contenders:4 – Keep On Moving (6/1), 9 – Captain Mercury (8/1), 11 – Il Cavallino (6/1), 7 – Trouble Ahead (15/1)
Rest of field:2 – Fistfulofmoney (12/1), 12 – Just Asap (10/1), 8 – Colonel Caliente (12/1), 6 – Storm The Streets (20/1), 5 – Lil Muggs (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8-7-4-10-1-2
🎯 Longshots: 9-12-6-5-3-1-2-8-7-10-4-11
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #10, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $134,000
Win:7 – Being Myself (5/2)
Place:3 – Blue Fire (4/1)
Show:6 – White Rocks (7/2)
Other contenders:5 – Union Mist (6/1), 9 – Gowells Delight (8/1), 8 – Amarth (10/1)
Rest of field:2 – Rando (8/1), 4 – Princess Aliyah (12/1), 1 – Vino Tiempo (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9-3-1-7-8-5
🎯 Longshots: 9-2-8-7-3-4-5-6-1
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $57,000
Win:7 – One More Time (5/2)
Place:3 – Roguishness (4/1)
Show:9 – Wicked Gun (3/1)
Other contenders:1 – He Has Game (6/1), 5 – Otzelberger (15/1), 8 – Obra Prima (20/1), 11 – It's Final (12/1)
Rest of field:4 – Positive Equity (10/1), 10 – Flume's Vino (20/1), 6 – El Ramundo (20/1), 2 – Unconnected (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9-5-8-11-4-10
🎯 Longshots: 7-11-3-9-10-2-4-5-1-8-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #9, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $78,000
Win:3 – Tarantino (7/5) 32% · fair 2-1 underlay -34%
Place:4 – Barksdale (5/2) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -29%
Show:1 – Mitty's Griddy (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -29%
Other contenders:6 – Tom Cat Tuesday (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 5 – Accretive (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1
Rest of field:2 – Shan (10/1) 7% · fair 13-1
🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-2-6-1-5
🎯 Longshots: 3-4-5-2-1-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:8 – Chasing Em (7/2) 25% · fair 3-1
Place:5 – Trixie Barry (3/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Show:9 – King Crusher (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -28%
Other contenders:7 – Shaved Ice (5/1) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -48%, 6 – Don't Kick Me (6/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -46%, 4 – High Status (10/1) 8% · fair 12-1
Rest of field:3 – Joe Joe Dude (15/1) 5% · fair 37-2, 1 – Zimomo (15/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -32%, 2 – Cantkeepagoodmndwn (12/1) 4% · fair 27-1 underlay -55%
🌧️ Off-track: 3-8-5-7-6-4
🎯 Longshots: 5-1-9-4-8-3-6-2-7
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #9, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:4 – Sargent Bilko (7/5) 38% · fair 3-2
Place:3 – Never A Doubt (9/5) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -37%
Show:2 – Red Sun (8/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:1 – Title Worthy (7/2) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -65%, 6 – Issachar (10/1) 9% · fair 21-2
Rest of field:5 – Fortune King (20/1) 5% · fair 18-1
🌧️ Off-track: 5-4-3-1-2-6
🎯 Longshots: 4-3-2-6-1-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:13 – Rockie Rockie (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -39%
Place:7 – Greatest Hits (7/2) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -45%
Show:14 – Forgive Me (4/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -58%
Other contenders:8 – Getaway Girl (9/2) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -56%, 5 – Midnight Yell (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -44%, 1 – Light Halo (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -41%, 9 – Jus Like Always (8/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -53%, 4 – Miss Jesse (10/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -47%
Rest of field:15 – Chickies Perch (8/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -59%, 6 – Drexel Drive (10/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -52%, 12 – New York To Paris (10/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -60%, 10 – Bourbon O'clock (12/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -55%, 11 – Secret Light (15/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -54%, 2 – She's Icy (15/1) 3% · fair 71-2 underlay -58%, 16 – Silk Street (20/1) 2% · fair 64-1 underlay -69%, 3 – Speightful Moon (30/1) 1% · fair 90-1 underlay -67%
🌧️ Off-track: 13-7-14-8-5-1
🎯 Longshots: 1-13-4-10-11-7-14-5-9-15-12-6-2-8-16-3
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #7, #14, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $76,000
Win:2 – Ecosystem (9/2) 16% · fair 5-1
Place:1 – Silver Sniper (3/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -45%
Show:8 – Stone County (4/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -34%
Other contenders:7 – Join (5/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -38%, 9 – Valiant Humor (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 4 – Ring Curl (8/1) 11% · fair 17-2
Rest of field:6 – Good Mojo (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -29%, 3 – White Whale (15/1) 6% · fair 31-2, 5 – Hillbilly Daydream (15/1) 5% · fair 19-1
🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-8-5-3-4
🎯 Longshots: 1-9-4-8-3-5-7-6-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $36,000
Win:14 – Inordinary (4/1) 24% · fair 3-1 overlay +26%
Place:7 – Prince Of Light (9/2) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -34%
Show:9 – Kid Twist (7/2) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -68%
Other contenders:2 – Wild Recruit (6/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -48%, 11 – Bird The Legend (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -43%, 5 – Romantic Lead (8/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -55%, 4 – Longstrider (10/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -47%, 1 – Compressed (10/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -49%
Rest of field:6 – Frosted Bull (10/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -52%, 3 – Gray Taps (12/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -43%, 16 – Papiamento (15/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -29%, 12 – Prince J J (15/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -53%, 8 – Impavido (15/1) 3% · fair 35-1 underlay -57%, 10 – Coal Fired (30/1) 2% · fair 46-1 underlay -35%, 13 – Valiant Award (30/1) 2% · fair 107-2 underlay -44%, 15 – Dewy's Denali (30/1) 2% · fair 127-2 underlay -53%
🌧️ Off-track: 4-11-16-15-9-10
🎯 Longshots: 11-1-3-14-7-9-5-6-4-16-8-12-2-10-15-13
🎫 Trifecta play: #14 over #7, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:5 – Ice Empress (6/1) 14% · fair 6-1
Place:1 – Guiding Star (9/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -27%
Show:11 – Mischief Bound (4/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -53%
Other contenders:4 – Cortina Gold (5/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -57%, 7 – Prosecco (10/1) 7% · fair 13-1, 16 – Blue Hill (8/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -38%, 13 – Aegean (6/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -59%, 3 – Appeals To Me (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -35%
Rest of field:2 – Maximization (8/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -50%, 14 – Twenty Three Gold (10/1) 4% · fair 25-1 underlay -60%, 15 – Global Equity (12/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -54%, 10 – Tess Me Not (15/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -51%, 9 – Cosmic Creed (12/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -64%, 8 – Miss Moneyball (15/1) 3% · fair 75-2 underlay -60%, 12 – Convincing Smile (20/1) 2% · fair 41-1 underlay -51%, 6 – Easy Loving (20/1) 2% · fair 45-1 underlay -56%
🌧️ Off-track: 5-1-11-4-7-16
🎯 Longshots: 7-3-16-14-2-9-15-12-11-1-6-5-4-10-8-13
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #11, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $62,000
Win:3 – Tiz Mary's Comet (7/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -39%
Place:11 – Il Cavallino (6/1) 12% · fair 7-1
Show:1 – Editor (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1
Other contenders:10 – Capital Connection (5/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -45%, 9 – Captain Mercury (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 4 – Keep On Moving (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -42%, 12 – Just Asap (10/1) 8% · fair 11-1
Rest of field:8 – Colonel Caliente (12/1) 7% · fair 13-1, 2 – Fistfulofmoney (12/1) 6% · fair 31-2, 7 – Trouble Ahead (15/1) 6% · fair 16-1, 6 – Storm The Streets (20/1) 5% · fair 39-2, 5 – Lil Muggs (30/1) 3% · fair 71-2
🌧️ Off-track: 8-7-4-10-2-1
🎯 Longshots: 9-12-6-5-3-1-2-8-7-10-4-11
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #11, #1, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $134,000
Win:7 – Being Myself (5/2) 21% · fair 4-1 underlay -34%
Place:3 – Blue Fire (4/1) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -31%
Show:6 – White Rocks (7/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -46%
Other contenders:5 – Union Mist (6/1) 12% · fair 7-1, 9 – Gowells Delight (8/1) 11% · fair 17-2, 8 – Amarth (10/1) 9% · fair 10-1
Rest of field:2 – Rando (8/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -38%, 4 – Princess Aliyah (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 1 – Vino Tiempo (20/1) 5% · fair 35-2
🌧️ Off-track: 9-3-1-8-7-5
🎯 Longshots: 9-2-8-7-3-4-5-6-1
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $57,000
Win:7 – One More Time (5/2) 21% · fair 7-2 underlay -32%
Place:3 – Roguishness (4/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:9 – Wicked Gun (3/1) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -29%
Other contenders:1 – He Has Game (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -29%, 11 – It's Final (12/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -29%, 5 – Otzelberger (15/1) 5% · fair 37-2, 8 – Obra Prima (20/1) 4% · fair 43-2
Rest of field:6 – El Ramundo (20/1) 4% · fair 43-2, 4 – Positive Equity (10/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -58%, 10 – Flume's Vino (20/1) 3% · fair 30-1 underlay -33%, 2 – Unconnected (50/1) 2% · fair 109-2
🌧️ Off-track: 9-11-5-8-6-4
🎯 Longshots: 7-11-3-9-10-2-4-5-1-8-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #9, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #4, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #5 over #9 ($1 straight; box #5-#9 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #9, #8, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #4 over #3 ($1 straight; box #4-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #4, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #13 over #7 ($1 straight; box #13-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #1 over #8 ($1 straight; box #1-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #8, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #14 over #7 ($1 straight; box #14-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #14, #11, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #5 over #11 ($1 straight; box #5-#11 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #3 over #10 ($1 straight; box #3-#10 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #10, #12, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #3 over #7 ($1 straight; box #3-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #6, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 10AI Exacta: #3 over #7 ($1 straight; box #3-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #3, #9, #11 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob isotonic)    Morning-line reliability: +0.38 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.80 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $ bankroll
108 – Obra Prima20/1—7.9%+52.3%0.65%$0.65
102 – Unconnected50/1—2.7%+30.3%0.15%$0.15
1010 – Flume'S Vino20/1—6.4%+27.0%0.34%$0.34
87 – Trouble Ahead15/1—8.0%+23.0%0.38%$0.38
616 – Papiamento15/1—7.7%+18.3%0.31%$0.31
23 – Joe Joe Dude15/1—7.2%+12.4%0.21%$0.21
TOTAL across 6 plays:2.0%$2.04
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $78,000
Win:3 - Tarantino (7/5)
Place:1 - Mitty's Griddy (4/1)
Show:4 - Barksdale (5/2)
Other contenders:5 - Accretive (8/1), 2 - Shan (10/1)
Rest of field:6 - Tom Cat Tuesday (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-1-2-6-5
🎯 Longshots: 3-4-5-2-1-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:5 - Trixie Barry (3/1)
Place:8 - Chasing Em (7/2)
Show:9 - King Crusher (4/1)
Other contenders:7 - Shaved Ice (5/1), 6 - Don't Kick Me (6/1), 3 - Joe Joe Dude (15/1)
Rest of field:4 - High Status (10/1), 1 - Zimomo (15/1), 2 - Cantkeepagoodmndwn (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-8-7-3-9-6
🎯 Longshots: 5-1-9-4-8-3-6-2-7
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #8, #9, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:4 - Sargent Bilko (7/5)
Place:3 - Never A Doubt (9/5)
Show:6 - Issachar (10/1)
Other contenders:2 - Red Sun (8/1), 1 - Title Worthy (7/2)
Rest of field:5 - Fortune King (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-5-1-2-6
🎯 Longshots: 4-3-2-6-1-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:1 - Light Halo (8/1)
Place:2 - She's Icy (15/1)
Show:3 - Speightful Moon (30/1)
Other contenders:4 - Miss Jesse (10/1), 5 - Midnight Yell (6/1), 6 - Drexel Drive (10/1), 7 - Greatest Hits (7/2), 8 - Getaway Girl (9/2)
Rest of field:9 - Jus Like Always (8/1), 10 - Bourbon O'clock (12/1), 11 - Secret Light (15/1), 12 - New York To Paris (10/1), 13 - Rockie Rockie (3/1), 14 - Forgive Me (4/1), 15 - Chickies Perch (8/1), 16 - Silk Street (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-3-4-5-6
🎯 Longshots: 1-13-4-10-11-7-14-5-9-15-12-6-2-8-16-3
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $76,000
Win:1 - Silver Sniper (3/1)
Place:8 - Stone County (4/1)
Show:9 - Valiant Humor (8/1)
Other contenders:2 - Ecosystem (9/2), 4 - Ring Curl (8/1), 6 - Good Mojo (6/1)
Rest of field:7 - Join (5/1), 3 - White Whale (15/1), 5 - Hillbilly Daydream (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-8-2-9-4-3
🎯 Longshots: 1-9-4-8-3-5-7-6-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $36,000
Win:5 - Romantic Lead (8/1)
Place:7 - Prince Of Light (9/2)
Show:14 - Inordinary (4/1)
Other contenders:9 - Kid Twist (7/2), 11 - Bird The Legend (8/1), 6 - Frosted Bull (10/1), 2 - Wild Recruit (6/1), 1 - Compressed (10/1)
Rest of field:3 - Gray Taps (12/1), 4 - Longstrider (10/1), 16 - Papiamento (15/1), 8 - Impavido (15/1), 12 - Prince J J (15/1), 10 - Coal Fired (30/1), 15 - Dewy's Denali (30/1), 13 - Valiant Award (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-11-9-4-14-6
🎯 Longshots: 11-1-3-14-7-9-5-6-4-16-8-12-2-10-15-13
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #14, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:1 - Guiding Star (9/2)
Place:2 - Maximization (8/1)
Show:3 - Appeals To Me (10/1)
Other contenders:4 - Cortina Gold (5/1), 5 - Ice Empress (6/1), 6 - Easy Loving (20/1), 7 - Prosecco (10/1), 8 - Miss Moneyball (15/1)
Rest of field:9 - Cosmic Creed (12/1), 10 - Tess Me Not (15/1), 11 - Mischief Bound (4/1), 12 - Convincing Smile (20/1), 13 - Aegean (6/1), 14 - Twenty Three Gold (10/1), 15 - Global Equity (12/1), 16 - Blue Hill (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-3-4-5-6
🎯 Longshots: 7-3-16-14-2-9-15-12-11-1-6-5-4-10-8-13
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $62,000
Win:3 - Tiz Mary's Comet (7/2)
Place:12 - Just Asap (10/1)
Show:1 - Editor (8/1)
Other contenders:4 - Keep On Moving (6/1), 8 - Colonel Caliente (12/1), 10 - Capital Connection (5/1), 7 - Trouble Ahead (15/1)
Rest of field:9 - Captain Mercury (8/1), 11 - Il Cavallino (6/1), 2 - Fistfulofmoney (12/1), 6 - Storm The Streets (20/1), 5 - Lil Muggs (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8-3-7-4-1-10
🎯 Longshots: 9-12-6-5-3-1-2-8-7-10-4-11
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #12, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $134,000
Win:3 - Blue Fire (4/1)
Place:7 - Being Myself (5/2)
Show:5 - Union Mist (6/1)
Other contenders:4 - Princess Aliyah (12/1), 9 - Gowells Delight (8/1), 6 - White Rocks (7/2)
Rest of field:8 - Amarth (10/1), 2 - Rando (8/1), 1 - Vino Tiempo (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3-9-7-5-1-4
🎯 Longshots: 9-2-8-7-3-4-5-6-1
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $57,000
Win:7 - One More Time (5/2)
Place:3 - Roguishness (4/1)
Show:9 - Wicked Gun (3/1)
Other contenders:1 - He Has Game (6/1), 11 - It's Final (12/1), 10 - Flume's Vino (20/1), 5 - Otzelberger (15/1)
Rest of field:8 - Obra Prima (20/1), 4 - Positive Equity (10/1), 2 - Unconnected (50/1), 6 - El Ramundo (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9-7-3-11-10-5
🎯 Longshots: 7-11-3-9-10-2-4-5-1-8-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #9, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $78,000
Win:3 - Tarantino (7/5)
Place:4 - Barksdale (5/2)
Show:1 - Mitty's Griddy (4/1)
Other contenders:5 - Accretive (8/1), 6 - Tom Cat Tuesday (6/1)
Rest of field:2 - Shan (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-1-6-2-5
🎯 Longshots: 3-4-5-2-1-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:5 - Trixie Barry (3/1)
Place:9 - King Crusher (4/1)
Show:8 - Chasing Em (7/2)
Other contenders:3 - Joe Joe Dude (15/1), 7 - Shaved Ice (5/1), 6 - Don't Kick Me (6/1)
Rest of field:4 - High Status (10/1), 1 - Zimomo (15/1), 2 - Cantkeepagoodmndwn (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-9-3-8-7-6
🎯 Longshots: 5-1-9-4-8-3-6-2-7
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #9, #8, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $127,000
Win:3 - Never A Doubt (9/5)
Place:4 - Sargent Bilko (7/5)
Show:1 - Title Worthy (7/2)
Other contenders:6 - Issachar (10/1), 2 - Red Sun (8/1)
Rest of field:5 - Fortune King (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-5-1-2-6
🎯 Longshots: 4-3-2-6-1-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:1 - Light Halo (8/1)
Place:2 - She's Icy (15/1)
Show:3 - Speightful Moon (30/1)
Other contenders:4 - Miss Jesse (10/1), 5 - Midnight Yell (6/1), 6 - Drexel Drive (10/1), 7 - Greatest Hits (7/2), 8 - Getaway Girl (9/2)
Rest of field:9 - Jus Like Always (8/1), 10 - Bourbon O'clock (12/1), 11 - Secret Light (15/1), 12 - New York To Paris (10/1), 13 - Rockie Rockie (3/1), 14 - Forgive Me (4/1), 15 - Chickies Perch (8/1), 16 - Silk Street (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-3-4-5-6
🎯 Longshots: 1-13-4-10-11-7-14-5-9-15-12-6-2-8-16-3
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $76,000
Win:1 - Silver Sniper (3/1)
Place:2 - Ecosystem (9/2)
Show:8 - Stone County (4/1)
Other contenders:7 - Join (5/1), 4 - Ring Curl (8/1), 9 - Valiant Humor (8/1)
Rest of field:6 - Good Mojo (6/1), 5 - Hillbilly Daydream (15/1), 3 - White Whale (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-8-4-9-5
🎯 Longshots: 1-9-4-8-3-5-7-6-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $36,000
Win:7 - Prince Of Light (9/2)
Place:14 - Inordinary (4/1)
Show:11 - Bird The Legend (8/1)
Other contenders:9 - Kid Twist (7/2), 2 - Wild Recruit (6/1), 5 - Romantic Lead (8/1), 6 - Frosted Bull (10/1), 1 - Compressed (10/1)
Rest of field:3 - Gray Taps (12/1), 16 - Papiamento (15/1), 8 - Impavido (15/1), 4 - Longstrider (10/1), 12 - Prince J J (15/1), 13 - Valiant Award (30/1), 15 - Dewy's Denali (30/1), 10 - Coal Fired (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 11-9-16-2-14-4
🎯 Longshots: 11-1-3-14-7-9-5-6-4-16-8-12-2-10-15-13
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #14, #11, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $120,000
Win:1 - Guiding Star (9/2)
Place:2 - Maximization (8/1)
Show:3 - Appeals To Me (10/1)
Other contenders:4 - Cortina Gold (5/1), 5 - Ice Empress (6/1), 6 - Easy Loving (20/1), 7 - Prosecco (10/1), 8 - Miss Moneyball (15/1)
Rest of field:9 - Cosmic Creed (12/1), 10 - Tess Me Not (15/1), 11 - Mischief Bound (4/1), 12 - Convincing Smile (20/1), 13 - Aegean (6/1), 14 - Twenty Three Gold (10/1), 15 - Global Equity (12/1), 16 - Blue Hill (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-3-4-5-6
🎯 Longshots: 7-3-16-14-2-9-15-12-11-1-6-5-4-10-8-13
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $62,000
Win:3 - Tiz Mary's Comet (7/2)
Place:10 - Capital Connection (5/1)
Show:12 - Just Asap (10/1)
Other contenders:9 - Captain Mercury (8/1), 11 - Il Cavallino (6/1), 4 - Keep On Moving (6/1), 1 - Editor (8/1)
Rest of field:7 - Trouble Ahead (15/1), 8 - Colonel Caliente (12/1), 2 - Fistfulofmoney (12/1), 6 - Storm The Streets (20/1), 5 - Lil Muggs (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8-3-7-10-4-11
🎯 Longshots: 9-12-6-5-3-1-2-8-7-10-4-11
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #10, #12, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $134,000
Win:3 - Blue Fire (4/1)
Place:6 - White Rocks (7/2)
Show:7 - Being Myself (5/2)
Other contenders:5 - Union Mist (6/1), 4 - Princess Aliyah (12/1), 8 - Amarth (10/1)
Rest of field:9 - Gowells Delight (8/1), 2 - Rando (8/1), 1 - Vino Tiempo (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3-9-7-6-5-8
🎯 Longshots: 9-2-8-7-3-4-5-6-1
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $57,000
Win:7 - One More Time (5/2)
Place:3 - Roguishness (4/1)
Show:9 - Wicked Gun (3/1)
Other contenders:11 - It's Final (12/1), 1 - He Has Game (6/1), 5 - Otzelberger (15/1), 10 - Flume's Vino (20/1)
Rest of field:4 - Positive Equity (10/1), 6 - El Ramundo (20/1), 8 - Obra Prima (20/1), 2 - Unconnected (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9-7-3-11-5-10
🎯 Longshots: 7-11-3-9-10-2-4-5-1-8-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #9, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #3,#4,#1 (69%) / R2: #8,#5,#9 (61%) / R3: #4,#3 (64%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #8,#5,#9 (61%) / R3: #4,#3 (64%) / R4: #13,#7,#14 (40%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 16%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #4,#3 (64%) / R4: #13,#7,#14 (40%) / R5: #2,#1,#8 (46%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 12%
Pick 3 R8-10R8: #3,#11,#1 (37%) / R9: #7,#3,#6 (49%) / R10: #7,#3,#9 (61%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 11%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #3,#4,#1 (69%) / R2: #8,#5,#9 (61%) / R3: #4,#3 (64%) / R4: #13,#7,#14 (40%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 11%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #8,#5,#9 (61%) / R3: #4,#3 (64%) / R4: #13,#7,#14 (40%) / R5: #2,#1,#8 (46%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 7%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ACCRETIVEAEGEANAMARTHAPPEALS TO MEBARKSDALE
BIRD THE LEGENDBLUE FIREBLUE HILLBOURBON O'CLOCKCANTKEEPAGOODMNDWN
CAPTAIN MERCURYCHASING EMCHICKIES PERCHCOAL FIREDCOLONEL CALIENTE
CONVINCING SMILECORTINA GOLDCOSMIC CREEDDEWY'S DENALIDON'T KICK ME
EASY LOVINGECOSYSTEMEDITOREL RAMUNDOFISTFULOFMONEY
FORGIVE MEFORTUNE KINGFROSTED BULLGETAWAY GIRLGLOBAL EQUITY
GOWELLS DELIGHTGRAY TAPSGREATEST HITSGUIDING STARHE HAS GAME
HILLBILLY DAYDREAMICE EMPRESSIL CAVALLINOIMPAVIDOINORDINARY
IT'S FINALJOE JOE DUDEJOINJUS LIKE ALWAYSJUST ASAP
KID TWISTKING CRUSHERLIGHT HALOLIL MUGGSLONGSTRIDER
MIDNIGHT YELLMISCHIEF BOUNDMISS JESSEMISS MONEYBALLMITTY'S GRIDDY
NEW YORK TO PARISOBRA PRIMAONE MORE TIMEOTZELBERGERPAPIAMENTO
PRINCE J JPRINCE OF LIGHTPRINCESS ALIYAHPROSECCORANDO
RING CURLROCKIE ROCKIEROGUISHNESSROMANTIC LEADSARGENT BILKO
SHANSHAVED ICESHE'S ICYSILK STREETSILVER SNIPER
STONE COUNTYSTORM THE STREETSTARANTINOTESS ME NOTTITLE WORTHY
TOM CAT TUESDAYTRIXIE BARRYTROUBLE AHEADTWENTY THREE GOLDUNCONNECTED
VALIANT AWARDVALIANT HUMORVINO TIEMPOWHITE ROCKSWHITE WHALE
WILD RECRUITZIMOMO

 


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback