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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Crowbar Artist (9/5) |
| Place: | 3 – Double Miles (5/2) |
| Show: | 4 – Saratoga Cruiser (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Zaino (6/1), 7 – Daytona Moonshine (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Soo Handsome (12/1), 6 – Moral Power (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-2-1-5-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-7-4-5-6-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – Inter Miami (2/1) |
| Place: | 7 – Ira The Icon (8/1) |
| Show: | 1 – For Some Reason (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Anchises (3/1), 2 – Patton's Tizzy (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Uniwinner (10/1), 5 – Enforcer (6/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-1-3-2-5-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-7-4-3-1-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Indian Pharoah (7/2) |
| Place: | 2 – Rhythm Riot (6/1) |
| Show: | 5 – Earth Song (9/5) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Brannhog (5/2), 3 – I've Got A Notion (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Matsuyama (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-5-6-3-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-3-6-1-2-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Magnolia Wind (3/1) |
| Place: | 5 – Gold Lady (4/1) |
| Show: | 1 – Infastuation (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Blue Fashion (6/1), 2 – Sister Carlie (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Ada May (10/1), 4 – Aruma (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-7-1-3-2-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-7-5-6-4-2-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000 | |
| Win: | 8 – Souper Taylor (9/2) |
| Place: | 1 – Set The Stage (3/2) |
| Show: | 10 – Meas Mor (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Shanghai Rose (15/1), 9 – Shorebound (20/1), 4 – Mega Moxie (12/1), 6 – Award (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 12 – Misses Boots (6/1), 14 – Smokie Mist (20/1), 2 – Laflordelacanela (12/1), 7 – Bittrpilltoswalow (20/1), 11 – Jespah (8/1), 13 – Good To Great (7/2), 5 – Pinner (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-1-10-3-9-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-2-4-3-8-10-6-11-13-5-9-7-14-12 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #10, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Get Like Mike (7/5) |
| Place: | 2 – Ascendance (9/5) |
| Show: | 1 – Jasper's Pride (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Leonids (6/1), 5 – Lookin At Roses (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Skimble Shanks (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-4-5-6-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-2-3-5-1-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – Wicked Boss (3/2) |
| Place: | 1 – Jeter (2/1) |
| Show: | 17 – Brockton (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 12 – Blackfoot Bounty (12/1), 10 – Bad Boy Butch (6/1), 8 – Half A League (4/1), 13 – Thirty West (15/1), 5 – Noble One (20/1) |
| Rest of field: | 18 – Showpiece (10/1), 15 – Adios Buster (15/1), 6 – Nilambar (20/1), 14 – Bold Licorice (30/1), 9 – Muthabir (15/1), 16 – Lucky Larry (15/1), 4 – Intolerable (30/1), 11 – Power Wrench (15/1), 7 – Master Nibbles (12/1), 3 – Don't Copy Me (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-13-6-3-5-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-1-17-6-18-14-3-9-8-7-13-10-16-12-15-11-5-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #17, #12 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Santinni (8/5) |
| Place: | 7 – Anderman (5/2) |
| Show: | 1 – Borz (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Leonidas Stand (10/1), 5 – Gonzalo (8/1), 8 – Ray Of Lov (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Regalpains (12/1), 2 – Dio Double Gee (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-1-7-6-3-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-4-5-7-8-6-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5, |
AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 3 – Double Miles (5/2) |
| Place: | 1 – Crowbar Artist (9/5) |
| Show: | 4 – Saratoga Cruiser (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Zaino (6/1), 5 – Soo Handsome (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Daytona Moonshine (15/1), 6 – Moral Power (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-2-5-7-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-7-4-5-6-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – Inter Miami (2/1) |
| Place: | 4 – Anchises (3/1) |
| Show: | 1 – For Some Reason (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Enforcer (6/1), 2 – Patton's Tizzy (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Ira The Icon (8/1), 3 – Uniwinner (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-5-1-3-2-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-7-4-3-1-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Indian Pharoah (7/2) |
| Place: | 5 – Earth Song (9/5) |
| Show: | 6 – Brannhog (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Rhythm Riot (6/1), 3 – I've Got A Notion (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Matsuyama (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-5-6-2-3-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-3-6-1-2-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #6, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – Gold Lady (4/1) |
| Place: | 7 – Magnolia Wind (3/1) |
| Show: | 1 – Infastuation (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Sister Carlie (9/2), 3 – Blue Fashion (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Ada May (10/1), 4 – Aruma (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-1-3-7-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-7-5-6-4-2-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Set The Stage (3/2) |
| Place: | 8 – Souper Taylor (9/2) |
| Show: | 13 – Good To Great (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Award (8/1), 10 – Meas Mor (8/1), 2 – Laflordelacanela (12/1), 12 – Misses Boots (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Shanghai Rose (15/1), 11 – Jespah (8/1), 4 – Mega Moxie (12/1), 9 – Shorebound (20/1), 7 – Bittrpilltoswalow (20/1), 5 – Pinner (12/1), 14 – Smokie Mist (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-8-13-6-10-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-2-4-3-8-10-6-11-13-5-9-7-14-12 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #13, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Get Like Mike (7/5) |
| Place: | 2 – Ascendance (9/5) |
| Show: | 1 – Jasper's Pride (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Leonids (6/1), 5 – Lookin At Roses (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Skimble Shanks (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-5-6-3-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-2-3-5-1-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Jeter (2/1) |
| Place: | 2 – Wicked Boss (3/2) |
| Show: | 10 – Bad Boy Butch (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 17 – Brockton (6/1), 8 – Half A League (4/1), 3 – Don't Copy Me (15/1), 18 – Showpiece (10/1), 9 – Muthabir (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 13 – Thirty West (15/1), 7 – Master Nibbles (12/1), 12 – Blackfoot Bounty (12/1), 16 – Lucky Larry (15/1), 11 – Power Wrench (15/1), 5 – Noble One (20/1), 6 – Nilambar (20/1), 15 – Adios Buster (15/1), 4 – Intolerable (30/1), 14 – Bold Licorice (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-13-3-6-5-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-1-17-6-18-14-3-9-8-7-13-10-16-12-15-11-5-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #10, #17 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Santinni (8/5) |
| Place: | 7 – Anderman (5/2) |
| Show: | 1 – Borz (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Leonidas Stand (10/1), 5 – Gonzalo (8/1), 8 – Ray Of Lov (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Dio Double Gee (15/1), 6 – Regalpains (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-1-6-2-7-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-4-5-7-8-6-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 3 – Double Miles (5/2) 28% · fair 5-2 |
| Place: | 1 – Crowbar Artist (9/5) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -40% |
| Show: | 4 – Saratoga Cruiser (3/1) 21% · fair 4-1 |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Moral Power (15/1) 8% · fair 25-2, 2 – Zaino (6/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -53% |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Daytona Moonshine (15/1) 7% · fair 14-1, 5 – Soo Handsome (12/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -41% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-2-5-7-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-7-4-5-6-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – Inter Miami (2/1) 24% · fair 3-1 underlay -38% |
| Place: | 5 – Enforcer (6/1) 19% · fair 4-1 overlay +43% |
| Show: | 1 – For Some Reason (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -27% |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Ira The Icon (8/1) 14% · fair 6-1 overlay +30%, 4 – Anchises (3/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -59% |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Patton's Tizzy (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -39%, 3 – Uniwinner (10/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -31% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-3-5-1-2-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-7-4-3-1-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #1, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Indian Pharoah (7/2) 23% · fair 7-2 |
| Place: | 2 – Rhythm Riot (6/1) 20% · fair 4-1 overlay +47% |
| Show: | 6 – Brannhog (5/2) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -41% |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Earth Song (9/5) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -58%, 3 – I've Got A Notion (8/1) 13% · fair 13-2 |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Matsuyama (8/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -47% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-6-5-3-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-3-6-1-2-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – Gold Lady (4/1) 25% · fair 3-1 overlay +35% |
| Place: | 7 – Magnolia Wind (3/1) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -31% |
| Show: | 2 – Sister Carlie (9/2) 17% · fair 5-1 |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Infastuation (2/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -70%, 3 – Blue Fashion (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2 |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Ada May (10/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 4 – Aruma (15/1) 5% · fair 18-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-1-3-4-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-7-5-6-4-2-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000 | |
| Win: | 8 – Souper Taylor (9/2) 20% · fair 4-1 |
| Place: | 1 – Set The Stage (3/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -77% |
| Show: | 13 – Good To Great (7/2) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -58% |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Laflordelacanela (12/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 10 – Meas Mor (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -26%, 12 – Misses Boots (6/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -55%, 6 – Award (8/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -49% |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Mega Moxie (12/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -37%, 3 – Shanghai Rose (15/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -28%, 11 – Jespah (8/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -64%, 7 – Bittrpilltoswalow (20/1) 4% · fair 24-1, 9 – Shorebound (20/1) 3% · fair 35-1 underlay -43%, 14 – Smokie Mist (20/1) 2% · fair 83-2 underlay -52%, 5 – Pinner (12/1) 2% · fair 51-1 underlay -77% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-1-13-2-10-12 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-2-4-3-8-10-6-11-13-5-9-7-14-12 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #13, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Get Like Mike (7/5) 28% · fair 5-2 underlay -45% |
| Place: | 2 – Ascendance (9/5) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -39% |
| Show: | 1 – Jasper's Pride (4/1) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -32% |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Lookin At Roses (12/1) 12% · fair 15-2 overlay +58%, 6 – Leonids (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1 |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Skimble Shanks (15/1) 9% · fair 10-1 overlay +49% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-5-2-6-3-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-2-3-5-1-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000 | |
| Win: | 17 – Brockton (6/1) 17% · fair 5-1 overlay +25% |
| Place: | 2 – Wicked Boss (3/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -75% |
| Show: | 1 – Jeter (2/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -70% |
| Other contenders: | 10 – Bad Boy Butch (6/1) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -37%, 8 – Half A League (4/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -63%, 18 – Showpiece (10/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -52%, 12 – Blackfoot Bounty (12/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -43%, 6 – Nilambar (20/1) 4% · fair 22-1 |
| Rest of field: | 13 – Thirty West (15/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -41%, 3 – Don't Copy Me (15/1) 3% · fair 57-2 underlay -47%, 11 – Power Wrench (15/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -55%, 16 – Lucky Larry (15/1) 3% · fair 67-2 underlay -55%, 7 – Master Nibbles (12/1) 3% · fair 38-1 underlay -69%, 9 – Muthabir (15/1) 2% · fair 46-1 underlay -67%, 5 – Noble One (20/1) 2% · fair 101-2 underlay -60%, 14 – Bold Licorice (30/1) 2% · fair 107-2 underlay -44%, 15 – Adios Buster (15/1) 1% · fair 145-2 underlay -79%, 4 – Intolerable (30/1) 1% · fair 78-1 underlay -61% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-13-3-6-5-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-1-17-6-18-14-3-9-8-7-13-10-16-12-15-11-5-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #17 over #2, #1, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Santinni (8/5) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -43% |
| Place: | 7 – Anderman (5/2) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -52% |
| Show: | 8 – Ray Of Lov (10/1) 14% · fair 6-1 overlay +69% |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Leonidas Stand (10/1) 13% · fair 13-2 overlay +52%, 1 – Borz (5/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -50%, 5 – Gonzalo (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2 |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Dio Double Gee (15/1) 8% · fair 12-1, 6 – Regalpains (12/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -40% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-1-2-7-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-4-5-7-8-6-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #8, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ
Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.
| Race 1 | AI Exacta: #1 over #3 ($1 straight; box #1-#3 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #3, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 2 | AI Exacta: #6 over #4 ($1 straight; box #6-#4 for cover) Trifecta: #6 over #4, #1, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 3 | AI Exacta: #1 over #5 ($1 straight; box #1-#5 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #2, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 4 | AI Exacta: #1 over #5 ($1 straight; box #1-#5 for cover) Trifecta: #5 over #7, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 5 | AI Exacta: #1 over #8 ($1 straight; box #1-#8 for cover) Trifecta: #8 over #1, #10, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 6 | AI Exacta: #4 over #2 ($1 straight; box #4-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #4 over #2, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 7 | AI Exacta: #1 over #2 ($1 straight; box #1-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #1, #17, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 8 | AI Exacta: #4 over #7 ($1 straight; box #4-#7 for cover) Trifecta: #4 over #7, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
| Kelly Edge Plays (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob isotonic) Morning-line reliability: +0.35 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it) Weekend sizing: ×0.95 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged) | |||||||
| Race | Horse | ML | Live | P(win) | Edge | ¼ Kelly | Bet on $ bankroll |
| 7 | 3 – Don'T Copy Me | 15/1 | — | 9.8% | +50.0% | 0.83% | $0.83 |
| 5 | 3 – Shanghai Rose | 15/1 | — | 8.8% | +36.8% | 0.61% | $0.61 |
| 7 | 5 – Noble One | 20/1 | — | 5.8% | +20.1% | 0.25% | $0.25 |
| 5 | 2 – Laflordelacanela | 12/1 | — | 9.3% | +18.2% | 0.38% | $0.38 |
| 7 | 13 – Thirty West | 15/1 | — | 7.4% | +16.2% | 0.27% | $0.27 |
| TOTAL across 5 plays: | 2.3% | $2.35 | |||||
| Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly. | |||||||
| 💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line. | |||||||
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Crowbar Artist (9/5) |
| Place: | 3 - Double Miles (5/2) |
| Show: | 4 - Saratoga Cruiser (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 - Zaino (6/1), 7 - Daytona Moonshine (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - Soo Handsome (12/1), 6 - Moral Power (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-1-2-7-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-7-4-5-6-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,000 | |
| Win: | 6 - Inter Miami (2/1) |
| Place: | 4 - Anchises (3/1) |
| Show: | 1 - For Some Reason (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Ira The Icon (8/1), 2 - Patton's Tizzy (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - Enforcer (6/1), 3 - Uniwinner (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-1-7-5-2-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-7-4-3-1-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #1, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000 | |
| Win: | 5 - Earth Song (9/5) |
| Place: | 2 - Rhythm Riot (6/1) |
| Show: | 6 - Brannhog (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - Indian Pharoah (7/2), 3 - I've Got A Notion (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Matsuyama (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-6-1-3-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-3-6-1-2-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000 | |
| Win: | 5 - Gold Lady (4/1) |
| Place: | 7 - Magnolia Wind (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 - Blue Fashion (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Ada May (10/1), 2 - Sister Carlie (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 1 - Infastuation (2/1), 4 - Aruma (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-7-2-1-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-7-5-6-4-2-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Set The Stage (3/2) |
| Place: | 8 - Souper Taylor (9/2) |
| Show: | 13 - Good To Great (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3 - Shanghai Rose (15/1), 10 - Meas Mor (8/1), 6 - Award (8/1), 12 - Misses Boots (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Laflordelacanela (12/1), 4 - Mega Moxie (12/1), 9 - Shorebound (20/1), 11 - Jespah (8/1), 5 - Pinner (12/1), 7 - Bittrpilltoswalow (20/1), 14 - Smokie Mist (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-8-13-3-10-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-2-4-3-8-10-6-11-13-5-9-7-14-12 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #13, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 4 - Get Like Mike (7/5) |
| Place: | 2 - Ascendance (9/5) |
| Show: | 1 - Jasper's Pride (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Leonids (6/1), 3 - Skimble Shanks (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - Lookin At Roses (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-1-4-6-3-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-2-3-5-1-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000 | |
| Win: | 2 - Wicked Boss (3/2) |
| Place: | 12 - Blackfoot Bounty (12/1) |
| Show: | 1 - Jeter (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 17 - Brockton (6/1), 8 - Half A League (4/1), 5 - Noble One (20/1), 10 - Bad Boy Butch (6/1), 16 - Lucky Larry (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9 - Muthabir (15/1), 13 - Thirty West (15/1), 3 - Don't Copy Me (15/1), 18 - Showpiece (10/1), 7 - Master Nibbles (12/1), 11 - Power Wrench (15/1), 14 - Bold Licorice (30/1), 15 - Adios Buster (15/1), 6 - Nilambar (20/1), 4 - Intolerable (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-13-3-6-5-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-1-17-6-18-14-3-9-8-7-13-10-16-12-15-11-5-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #12, #1, #17 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 4 - Santinni (8/5) |
| Place: | 7 - Anderman (5/2) |
| Show: | 1 - Borz (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 - Leonidas Stand (10/1), 8 - Ray Of Lov (10/1), 2 - Dio Double Gee (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - Gonzalo (8/1), 6 - Regalpains (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-7-1-2-3-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-4-5-7-8-6-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Crowbar Artist (9/5) |
| Place: | 3 - Double Miles (5/2) |
| Show: | 4 - Saratoga Cruiser (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 - Zaino (6/1), 5 - Soo Handsome (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 - Daytona Moonshine (15/1), 6 - Moral Power (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-1-2-5-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-7-4-5-6-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,000 | |
| Win: | 6 - Inter Miami (2/1) |
| Place: | 4 - Anchises (3/1) |
| Show: | 1 - For Some Reason (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Ira The Icon (8/1), 2 - Patton's Tizzy (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - Enforcer (6/1), 3 - Uniwinner (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-1-6-2-5-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-7-4-3-1-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #1, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Indian Pharoah (7/2) |
| Place: | 2 - Rhythm Riot (6/1) |
| Show: | 5 - Earth Song (9/5) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Brannhog (5/2), 3 - I've Got A Notion (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Matsuyama (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-5-6-3-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-3-6-1-2-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000 | |
| Win: | 5 - Gold Lady (4/1) |
| Place: | 7 - Magnolia Wind (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 - Blue Fashion (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - Infastuation (2/1), 2 - Sister Carlie (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Ada May (10/1), 4 - Aruma (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-7-1-2-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-7-5-6-4-2-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000 | |
| Win: | 8 - Souper Taylor (9/2) |
| Place: | 1 - Set The Stage (3/2) |
| Show: | 10 - Meas Mor (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 - Shanghai Rose (15/1), 13 - Good To Great (7/2), 9 - Shorebound (20/1), 6 - Award (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Laflordelacanela (12/1), 12 - Misses Boots (6/1), 11 - Jespah (8/1), 4 - Mega Moxie (12/1), 7 - Bittrpilltoswalow (20/1), 14 - Smokie Mist (20/1), 5 - Pinner (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-1-10-3-13-9 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-2-4-3-8-10-6-11-13-5-9-7-14-12 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #10, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 4 - Get Like Mike (7/5) |
| Place: | 2 - Ascendance (9/5) |
| Show: | 1 - Jasper's Pride (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Leonids (6/1), 5 - Lookin At Roses (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Skimble Shanks (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-4-6-5-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-2-3-5-1-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000 | |
| Win: | 2 - Wicked Boss (3/2) |
| Place: | 1 - Jeter (2/1) |
| Show: | 17 - Brockton (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 10 - Bad Boy Butch (6/1), 8 - Half A League (4/1), 15 - Adios Buster (15/1), 9 - Muthabir (15/1), 13 - Thirty West (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 12 - Blackfoot Bounty (12/1), 16 - Lucky Larry (15/1), 11 - Power Wrench (15/1), 18 - Showpiece (10/1), 6 - Nilambar (20/1), 7 - Master Nibbles (12/1), 5 - Noble One (20/1), 14 - Bold Licorice (30/1), 4 - Intolerable (30/1), 3 - Don't Copy Me (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-13-6-3-1-15 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-1-17-6-18-14-3-9-8-7-13-10-16-12-15-11-5-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #17, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 4 - Santinni (8/5) |
| Place: | 7 - Anderman (5/2) |
| Show: | 1 - Borz (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 - Leonidas Stand (10/1), 5 - Gonzalo (8/1), 8 - Ray Of Lov (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Regalpains (12/1), 2 - Dio Double Gee (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-1-7-6-3-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-4-5-7-8-6-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1, |
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ
Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.
| Pick 3 R1-3 | R1: #3,#1,#4 (74%) / R2: #6,#5,#1 (58%) / R3: #1,#2,#6 (62%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27% |
| Pick 3 R2-4 | R2: #6,#5,#1 (58%) / R3: #1,#2,#6 (62%) / R4: #5,#7,#2 (61%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22% |
| Pick 3 R4-6 | R4: #5,#7,#2 (61%) / R5: #8,#1,#13 (44%) / R6: #4,#2,#1 (68%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 18% |
| Pick 3 R6-8 | R6: #4,#2,#1 (68%) / R7: #17,#2,#1 (45%) / R8: #4,#7,#8 (57%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17% |
| Pick 4 R1-4 | R1: #3,#1,#4 (74%) / R2: #6,#5,#1 (58%) / R3: #1,#2,#6 (62%) / R4: #5,#7,#2 (61%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 16% |
| Pick 4 R3-6 | R3: #1,#2,#6 (62%) / R4: #5,#7,#2 (61%) / R5: #8,#1,#13 (44%) / R6: #4,#2,#1 (68%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 11% |
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
| ADA MAY | ADIOS BUSTER | ANCHISES | ANDERMAN | ARUMA |
| AWARD | BAD BOY BUTCH | BITTRPILLTOSWALOW | BLACKFOOT BOUNTY | BLUE FASHION |
| BORZ | BRANNHOG | BROCKTON | CROWBAR ARTIST | DAYTONA MOONSHINE |
| DON'T COPY ME | DOUBLE MILES | EARTH SONG | ENFORCER | FOR SOME REASON |
| GOLD LADY | GONZALO | GOOD TO GREAT | HALF A LEAGUE | I'VE GOT A NOTION |
| INFASTUATION | INTER MIAMI | INTOLERABLE | IRA THE ICON | JASPER'S PRIDE |
| JETER | LAFLORDELACANELA | LEONIDAS STAND | LEONIDS | LOOKIN AT ROSES |
| MAGNOLIA WIND | MASTER NIBBLES | MATSUYAMA | MEAS MOR | MEGA MOXIE |
| MORAL POWER | MUTHABIR | NILAMBAR | NOBLE ONE | PATTON'S TIZZY |
| POWER WRENCH | RAY OF LOV | REGALPAINS | RHYTHM RIOT | SANTINNI |
| SET THE STAGE | SHANGHAI ROSE | SHOREBOUND | SHOWPIECE | SISTER CARLIE |
| SMOKIE MIST | SOO HANDSOME | SOUPER TAYLOR | THIRTY WEST | UNIWINNER |
| ZAINO |
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