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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
| Race 1 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Grade 2 Stake · Purse $300,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – Pondering (3/1) |
| Place: | 5 – Reagan's Flame (8/5) |
| Show: | 3 – Paradise City (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Mitole Magic (8/1), 8 – Lovely Emma (6/1), 9 – Jill Jitterbug (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Sea Runner (12/1), 2 – Les Reys (4/1), 4 – Paris Carver (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-5-3-7-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-7-4-6-3-1-9-2-8 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 1 1/8 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Further Ado (2/1) |
| Place: | 2 – Iron Honor (5/1) |
| Show: | 6 – The Puma (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Our Moneyman (8/1), 9 – Sassmaster (10/1), 4 – Igniter (8/1), 5 – Talk To Me Jimmy (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Zihnal (8/1), 11 – Ponder And Dream (20/1), 10 – Micanopy (15/1), 8 – Freedom's Echo (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-7-6-9-5-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 11-7-9-5-10-4-1-3-6-2-8 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #6, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5, |
AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
| Race 1 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Grade 2 Stake · Purse $300,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – Reagan's Flame (8/5) |
| Place: | 6 – Pondering (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Paradise City (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Les Reys (4/1), 8 – Lovely Emma (6/1), 7 – Mitole Magic (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Sea Runner (12/1), 4 – Paris Carver (15/1), 9 – Jill Jitterbug (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-5-6-3-8-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-7-4-6-3-1-9-2-8 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #3, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 1 1/8 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Further Ado (2/1) |
| Place: | 6 – The Puma (4/1) |
| Show: | 2 – Iron Honor (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Zihnal (8/1), 4 – Igniter (8/1), 3 – Our Moneyman (8/1), 9 – Sassmaster (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Talk To Me Jimmy (12/1), 10 – Micanopy (15/1), 11 – Ponder And Dream (20/1), 8 – Freedom's Echo (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-9-5-4-6-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 11-7-9-5-10-4-1-3-6-2-8 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
| Race 1 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Grade 2 Stake · Purse $300,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – Reagan's Flame (8/5) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -62% |
| Place: | 3 – Paradise City (9/2) 16% · fair 5-1 |
| Show: | 6 – Pondering (3/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -44% |
| Other contenders: | 8 – Lovely Emma (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 7 – Mitole Magic (8/1) 10% · fair 17-2, 2 – Les Reys (4/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -60% |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Sea Runner (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 4 – Paris Carver (15/1) 6% · fair 31-2, 9 – Jill Jitterbug (15/1) 5% · fair 39-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-5-6-3-8-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-7-4-6-3-1-9-2-8 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #6, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 1 1/8 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Further Ado (2/1) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -33% |
| Place: | 2 – Iron Honor (5/1) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -30% |
| Show: | 6 – The Puma (4/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -45% |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Zihnal (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 10 – Micanopy (15/1) 8% · fair 23-2 overlay +29%, 3 – Our Moneyman (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -34%, 4 – Igniter (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -36% |
| Rest of field: | 9 – Sassmaster (10/1) 7% · fair 25-2, 5 – Talk To Me Jimmy (12/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -42%, 11 – Ponder And Dream (20/1) 5% · fair 41-2, 8 – Freedom's Echo (20/1) 2% · fair 83-2 underlay -52% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-9-5-4-8-10 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 11-7-9-5-10-4-1-3-6-2-8 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ
Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.
| Race 1 | AI Exacta: #5 over #3 ($1 straight; box #5-#3 for cover) Trifecta: #5 over #6, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 2 | AI Exacta: #7 over #6 ($1 straight; box #7-#6 for cover) Trifecta: #7 over #2, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
| Race 1 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Grade 2 Stake · Purse $300,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – Pondering (3/1) |
| Place: | 5 – Reagan's Flame (8/5) |
| Show: | 3 – Paradise City (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Les Reys (4/1), 8 – Lovely Emma (6/1), 7 – Mitole Magic (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Sea Runner (12/1), 9 – Jill Jitterbug (15/1), 4 – Paris Carver (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-5-6-3-8-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-7-4-6-3-1-9-2-8 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #3, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 1 1/8 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Further Ado (2/1) |
| Place: | 6 – The Puma (4/1) |
| Show: | 9 – Sassmaster (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Igniter (8/1), 3 – Our Moneyman (8/1), 1 – Zihnal (8/1), 2 – Iron Honor (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 10 – Micanopy (15/1), 5 – Talk To Me Jimmy (12/1), 11 – Ponder And Dream (20/1), 8 – Freedom's Echo (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-9-2-4-6-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 11-7-9-5-10-4-1-3-6-2-8 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #9, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
| Race 1 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Grade 2 Stake · Purse $300,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – Reagan's Flame (8/5) |
| Place: | 6 – Pondering (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Paradise City (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Mitole Magic (8/1), 2 – Les Reys (4/1), 8 – Lovely Emma (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Sea Runner (12/1), 4 – Paris Carver (15/1), 9 – Jill Jitterbug (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-5-6-3-7-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-7-4-6-3-1-9-2-8 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 1 1/8 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Further Ado (2/1) |
| Place: | 2 – Iron Honor (5/1) |
| Show: | 6 – The Puma (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Talk To Me Jimmy (12/1), 4 – Igniter (8/1), 9 – Sassmaster (10/1), 3 – Our Moneyman (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Zihnal (8/1), 11 – Ponder And Dream (20/1), 10 – Micanopy (15/1), 8 – Freedom's Echo (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-2-5-6-9-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 11-7-9-5-10-4-1-3-6-2-8 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Index – Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
| FREEDOM'S ECHO | FURTHER ADO | IGNITER | IRON HONOR | JILL JITTERBUG |
| LOVELY EMMA | MICANOPY | MITOLE MAGIC | OUR MONEYMAN | PARADISE CITY |
| PONDER AND DREAM | PONDERING | REAGAN'S FLAME | SASSMASTER | SEA RUNNER |
| THE PUMA | ZIHNAL |
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