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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $13,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – Dang It Dan (6/5) |
| Place: | 1 – W W Nolan (9/5) |
| Show: | 5 – Midnight Master (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Instant Classic (7/1), 7 – Blakely's Boy (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Quiet Deputy (20/1), 3 – Bear Rilla (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-3-1-5-6-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-1-7-6-4-5-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Lemon Drop Shot (5/2) |
| Place: | 1 – Boogie Bode (3/2) |
| Show: | 3 – Tapinyourbluejeans (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Major Contender (6/1), 2 – License To Steal (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Electric Charge (20/1), 7 – Millard's Smile (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-1-3-7-6-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-3-2-5-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,500 | |
| Win: | 2 – Whitelick Road (3/2) |
| Place: | 1 – Elsie's Legacy (4/1) |
| Show: | 7 – Libby Loo (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Atraxa (6/1), 4 – Rather Late (9/2), 8 – La Rose Blanche (9/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Lady Artist (30/1), 5 – Maya's Warrior (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-8-4-2-1-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-8-1-5-4-3-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #7, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,600 | |
| Win: | 1 – Cutlass King (4/5) |
| Place: | 3 – Two Step Jake (3/1) |
| Show: | 5 – Aspiring Comedian (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Rumbling (7/1), 4 – Severance (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Solomon Vandy (15/1), 2 – Smile Like Kyle (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-5-4-7-1-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-4-7-6-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #5, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Summer Of Mischief (2/5) |
| Place: | 9 – Stagflation (8/1) |
| Show: | 4 – Alternative Grace (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Blaze Beauty (20/1), 8 – Bethy (10/1), 1 – Rock The Birdhouse (30/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Midnight's Girl (12/1), 3 – Miss Saipan (20/1), 2 – Ornery Angel (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-9-2-1-5-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-4-8-1-9-5-2-6-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #9, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500 | |
| Win: | 8 – Sponge Bath (5/2) |
| Place: | 3 – Sound Of Victory (2/1) |
| Show: | 2 – Roussette (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 9 – Patch O'brien (7/1), 7 – City Of God (10/1), 4 – Booming (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Heartbreak Game (15/1), 1 – African Warrior (30/1), 5 – Black White N Gold (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-3-2-9-1-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 8-3-6-4-7-2-9-5-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #2, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race | |
| Race 7 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $40,500 | |
| Win: | 6 – Disguised Devil (9/5) |
| Place: | 9 – Lady Elise (2/1) |
| Show: | 7 – Bikini Martini (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Devil (20/1), 4 – Bar Money (12/1), 2 – Biagoddess (4/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Laly (15/1), 8 – Vasariah's Image (30/1), 5 – Hootie Hoot (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-7-6-9-4-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-7-4-9-8-1-3-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #9, #7, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $38,500 | |
| Win: | 5 – Itdontcomeeasy (5/2) |
| Place: | 11 – Somethintobelieven (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Fight The Power (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Adam Five Oh (5/1), 10 – Ciao Tommaso (7/1), 1 – Tower Grove Park (12/1), 8 – Senor Ruben (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Big Skookum (15/1), 9 – Chef Ray Wiley (30/1), 2 – Playground Warrior (20/1), 12 – Holden Michael (30/1), 7 – Wahida Of Mardan (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 9-8-11-5-12-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-3-11-2-1-8-4-6-10-9-7-12 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #11, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5, |
AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $13,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – Dang It Dan (6/5) |
| Place: | 1 – W W Nolan (9/5) |
| Show: | 5 – Midnight Master (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Instant Classic (7/1), 7 – Blakely's Boy (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Quiet Deputy (20/1), 3 – Bear Rilla (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-2-1-5-4-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-1-7-6-4-5-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Boogie Bode (3/2) |
| Place: | 4 – Lemon Drop Shot (5/2) |
| Show: | 3 – Tapinyourbluejeans (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Major Contender (6/1), 2 – License To Steal (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Millard's Smile (15/1), 5 – Electric Charge (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-1-3-4-6-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-3-2-5-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,500 | |
| Win: | 2 – Whitelick Road (3/2) |
| Place: | 1 – Elsie's Legacy (4/1) |
| Show: | 4 – Rather Late (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Atraxa (6/1), 7 – Libby Loo (6/1), 8 – La Rose Blanche (9/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Maya's Warrior (12/1), 6 – Lady Artist (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-8-4-2-1-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-8-1-5-4-3-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,600 | |
| Win: | 1 – Cutlass King (4/5) |
| Place: | 3 – Two Step Jake (3/1) |
| Show: | 7 – Rumbling (7/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Aspiring Comedian (6/1), 4 – Severance (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Solomon Vandy (15/1), 2 – Smile Like Kyle (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-5-7-6-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-4-7-6-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Summer Of Mischief (2/5) |
| Place: | 4 – Alternative Grace (8/1) |
| Show: | 9 – Stagflation (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8 – Bethy (10/1), 5 – Midnight's Girl (12/1), 3 – Miss Saipan (20/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Ornery Angel (20/1), 6 – Blaze Beauty (20/1), 1 – Rock The Birdhouse (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-9-7-5-1-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-4-8-1-9-5-2-6-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #9, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500 | |
| Win: | 3 – Sound Of Victory (2/1) |
| Place: | 8 – Sponge Bath (5/2) |
| Show: | 2 – Roussette (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 9 – Patch O'brien (7/1), 4 – Booming (8/1), 7 – City Of God (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Heartbreak Game (15/1), 5 – Black White N Gold (30/1), 1 – African Warrior (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-3-5-1-6-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 8-3-6-4-7-2-9-5-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #2, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race | |
| Race 7 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $40,500 | |
| Win: | 6 – Disguised Devil (9/5) |
| Place: | 9 – Lady Elise (2/1) |
| Show: | 2 – Biagoddess (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Bikini Martini (8/1), 1 – Devil (20/1), 4 – Bar Money (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Laly (15/1), 5 – Hootie Hoot (20/1), 8 – Vasariah's Image (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-7-8-9-6-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-7-4-9-8-1-3-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #9, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $38,500 | |
| Win: | 5 – Itdontcomeeasy (5/2) |
| Place: | 11 – Somethintobelieven (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Fight The Power (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Adam Five Oh (5/1), 10 – Ciao Tommaso (7/1), 1 – Tower Grove Park (12/1), 8 – Senor Ruben (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Playground Warrior (20/1), 4 – Big Skookum (15/1), 9 – Chef Ray Wiley (30/1), 7 – Wahida Of Mardan (30/1), 12 – Holden Michael (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 9-8-12-4-2-11 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-3-11-2-1-8-4-6-10-9-7-12 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #11, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $13,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – Dang It Dan (6/5) 30% · fair 5-2 underlay -49% |
| Place: | 1 – W W Nolan (9/5) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -36% |
| Show: | 5 – Midnight Master (5/1) 16% · fair 5-1 |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Instant Classic (7/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 7 – Blakely's Boy (10/1) 9% · fair 21-2 |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Quiet Deputy (20/1) 4% · fair 51-2, 3 – Bear Rilla (30/1) 2% · fair 52-1 underlay -42% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-2-1-5-4-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-1-7-6-4-5-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Boogie Bode (3/2) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -48% |
| Place: | 4 – Lemon Drop Shot (5/2) 24% · fair 3-1 |
| Show: | 3 – Tapinyourbluejeans (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Major Contender (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 2 – License To Steal (10/1) 8% · fair 11-1 |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Electric Charge (20/1) 7% · fair 27-2 overlay +51%, 7 – Millard's Smile (15/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -49% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-1-3-6-2-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-3-2-5-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,500 | |
| Win: | 2 – Whitelick Road (3/2) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -67% |
| Place: | 3 – Atraxa (6/1) 17% · fair 5-1 |
| Show: | 7 – Libby Loo (6/1) 16% · fair 5-1 |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Elsie's Legacy (4/1) 16% · fair 5-1, 4 – Rather Late (9/2) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -36%, 8 – La Rose Blanche (9/1) 10% · fair 9-1 |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Maya's Warrior (12/1) 7% · fair 25-2, 6 – Lady Artist (30/1) 2% · fair 40-1 underlay -25% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-8-4-2-3-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-8-1-5-4-3-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #7, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,600 | |
| Win: | 1 – Cutlass King (4/5) 24% · fair 3-1 underlay -74% |
| Place: | 3 – Two Step Jake (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 |
| Show: | 7 – Rumbling (7/1) 20% · fair 4-1 overlay +70% |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Severance (10/1) 13% · fair 13-2 overlay +55%, 5 – Aspiring Comedian (6/1) 13% · fair 7-1 |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Solomon Vandy (15/1) 6% · fair 29-2, 2 – Smile Like Kyle (20/1) 3% · fair 63-2 underlay -36% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-5-7-6-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-4-7-6-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Summer Of Mischief (2/5) 36% · fair 2-1 underlay -77% |
| Place: | 4 – Alternative Grace (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2 |
| Show: | 8 – Bethy (10/1) 11% · fair 8-1 |
| Other contenders: | 9 – Stagflation (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 5 – Midnight's Girl (12/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 2 – Ornery Angel (20/1) 6% · fair 31-2 overlay +30% |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Miss Saipan (20/1) 6% · fair 31-2 overlay +27%, 6 – Blaze Beauty (20/1) 5% · fair 37-2, 1 – Rock The Birdhouse (30/1) 5% · fair 19-1 overlay +58% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-9-5-1-7-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-4-8-1-9-5-2-6-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #8, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500 | |
| Win: | 3 – Sound Of Victory (2/1) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -43% |
| Place: | 2 – Roussette (4/1) 18% · fair 9-2 |
| Show: | 8 – Sponge Bath (5/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -48% |
| Other contenders: | 9 – Patch O'brien (7/1) 14% · fair 6-1, 4 – Booming (8/1) 9% · fair 19-2, 7 – City Of God (10/1) 8% · fair 23-2 |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Heartbreak Game (15/1) 6% · fair 31-2, 5 – Black White N Gold (30/1) 3% · fair 73-2, 1 – African Warrior (30/1) 2% · fair 87-2 underlay -31% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-5-1-3-6-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 8-3-6-4-7-2-9-5-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #8, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race | |
| Race 7 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $40,500 | |
| Win: | 6 – Disguised Devil (9/5) 27% · fair 5-2 underlay -32% |
| Place: | 9 – Lady Elise (2/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -55% |
| Show: | 2 – Biagoddess (4/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -46% |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Bikini Martini (8/1) 10% · fair 17-2, 1 – Devil (20/1) 8% · fair 11-1 overlay +85%, 4 – Bar Money (12/1) 8% · fair 23-2 |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Laly (15/1) 7% · fair 25-2, 5 – Hootie Hoot (20/1) 5% · fair 39-2, 8 – Vasariah's Image (30/1) 3% · fair 31-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-7-8-9-4-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-7-4-9-8-1-3-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #9, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $38,500 | |
| Win: | 5 – Itdontcomeeasy (5/2) 21% · fair 7-2 underlay -32% |
| Place: | 10 – Ciao Tommaso (7/1) 14% · fair 6-1 |
| Show: | 11 – Somethintobelieven (3/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -54% |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Fight The Power (8/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 6 – Adam Five Oh (5/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -47%, 8 – Senor Ruben (15/1) 7% · fair 25-2, 1 – Tower Grove Park (12/1) 7% · fair 14-1 |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Playground Warrior (20/1) 5% · fair 20-1, 12 – Holden Michael (30/1) 3% · fair 61-2, 9 – Chef Ray Wiley (30/1) 3% · fair 32-1, 7 – Wahida Of Mardan (30/1) 2% · fair 83-2 underlay -27%, 4 – Big Skookum (15/1) 2% · fair 129-2 underlay -77% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 9-8-12-4-2-11 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-3-11-2-1-8-4-6-10-9-7-12 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #10, #11, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ
Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.
| Race 1 | AI Exacta: #2 over #1 ($1 straight; box #2-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #1, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 2 | AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #3, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 3 | AI Exacta: #2 over #1 ($1 straight; box #2-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #1, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 4 | AI Exacta: #1 over #3 ($1 straight; box #1-#3 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #3, #4, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 5 | AI Exacta: #7 over #9 ($1 straight; box #7-#9 for cover) Trifecta: #7 over #9, #4, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 6 | AI Exacta: #8 over #3 ($1 straight; box #8-#3 for cover) Trifecta: #8 over #3, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race |
| Race 7 | AI Exacta: #6 over #9 ($1 straight; box #6-#9 for cover) Trifecta: #6 over #2, #9, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 8 | AI Exacta: #5 over #11 ($1 straight; box #5-#11 for cover) Trifecta: #5 over #11, #6, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
| Kelly Edge Plays (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob isotonic) Morning-line reliability: +0.39 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it) Weekend sizing: ×0.88 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged) | |||||||
| Race | Horse | ML | Live | P(win) | Edge | ¼ Kelly | Bet on $ bankroll |
| 7 | 1 – Devil | 20/1 | — | 7.4% | +50.7% | 0.63% | $0.63 |
| 8 | 9 – Chef Ray Wiley | 30/1 | — | 4.3% | +29.5% | 0.25% | $0.25 |
| 6 | 5 – Black White N Gold | 30/1 | — | 3.9% | +18.8% | 0.16% | $0.16 |
| 8 | 2 – Playground Warrior | 20/1 | — | 5.3% | +10.1% | 0.13% | $0.13 |
| 1 | 3 – Bear Rilla | 30/1 | — | 3.6% | +9.5% | 0.08% | $0.08 |
| TOTAL across 5 plays: | 1.2% | $1.24 | |||||
| Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly. | |||||||
| 💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line. | |||||||
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $13,000 | |
| Win: | 2 - Dang It Dan (6/5) |
| Place: | 1 - W W Nolan (9/5) |
| Show: | 5 - Midnight Master (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Instant Classic (7/1), 7 - Blakely's Boy (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Quiet Deputy (20/1), 3 - Bear Rilla (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-1-5-3-6-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-1-7-6-4-5-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Boogie Bode (3/2) |
| Place: | 4 - Lemon Drop Shot (5/2) |
| Show: | 3 - Tapinyourbluejeans (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 - License To Steal (10/1), 6 - Major Contender (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - Electric Charge (20/1), 7 - Millard's Smile (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-4-3-2-6-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-3-2-5-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #3, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,500 | |
| Win: | 2 - Whitelick Road (3/2) |
| Place: | 1 - Elsie's Legacy (4/1) |
| Show: | 7 - Libby Loo (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 - Atraxa (6/1), 4 - Rather Late (9/2), 8 - La Rose Blanche (9/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - Maya's Warrior (12/1), 6 - Lady Artist (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-1-8-7-3-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-8-1-5-4-3-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #7, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,600 | |
| Win: | 1 - Cutlass King (4/5) |
| Place: | 3 - Two Step Jake (3/1) |
| Show: | 4 - Severance (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 - Aspiring Comedian (6/1), 7 - Rumbling (7/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Smile Like Kyle (20/1), 6 - Solomon Vandy (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-1-5-7-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-4-7-6-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,000 | |
| Win: | 7 - Summer Of Mischief (2/5) |
| Place: | 6 - Blaze Beauty (20/1) |
| Show: | 9 - Stagflation (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Alternative Grace (8/1), 8 - Bethy (10/1), 5 - Midnight's Girl (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Ornery Angel (20/1), 3 - Miss Saipan (20/1), 1 - Rock The Birdhouse (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-9-2-6-8-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-4-8-1-9-5-2-6-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #9, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500 | |
| Win: | 8 - Sponge Bath (5/2) |
| Place: | 3 - Sound Of Victory (2/1) |
| Show: | 2 - Roussette (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 9 - Patch O'brien (7/1), 7 - City Of God (10/1), 4 - Booming (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Heartbreak Game (15/1), 5 - Black White N Gold (30/1), 1 - African Warrior (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-3-2-9-6-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 8-3-6-4-7-2-9-5-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #2, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race | |
| Race 7 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $40,500 | |
| Win: | 6 - Disguised Devil (9/5) |
| Place: | 9 - Lady Elise (2/1) |
| Show: | 2 - Biagoddess (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - Devil (20/1), 7 - Bikini Martini (8/1), 4 - Bar Money (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Laly (15/1), 8 - Vasariah's Image (30/1), 5 - Hootie Hoot (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-6-7-9-4-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-7-4-9-8-1-3-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #9, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $38,500 | |
| Win: | 5 - Itdontcomeeasy (5/2) |
| Place: | 11 - Somethintobelieven (3/1) |
| Show: | 6 - Adam Five Oh (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 10 - Ciao Tommaso (7/1), 1 - Tower Grove Park (12/1), 3 - Fight The Power (8/1), 2 - Playground Warrior (20/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8 - Senor Ruben (15/1), 12 - Holden Michael (30/1), 4 - Big Skookum (15/1), 7 - Wahida Of Mardan (30/1), 9 - Chef Ray Wiley (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 9-5-11-8-1-10 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-3-11-2-1-8-4-6-10-9-7-12 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #11, #6, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $13,000 | |
| Win: | 2 - Dang It Dan (6/5) |
| Place: | 1 - W W Nolan (9/5) |
| Show: | 5 - Midnight Master (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Instant Classic (7/1), 7 - Blakely's Boy (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Quiet Deputy (20/1), 3 - Bear Rilla (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-1-3-5-6-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-1-7-6-4-5-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Boogie Bode (3/2) |
| Place: | 3 - Tapinyourbluejeans (3/1) |
| Show: | 4 - Lemon Drop Shot (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2 - License To Steal (10/1), 6 - Major Contender (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 - Millard's Smile (15/1), 5 - Electric Charge (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-4-2-7-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-3-2-5-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $10,500 | |
| Win: | 2 - Whitelick Road (3/2) |
| Place: | 1 - Elsie's Legacy (4/1) |
| Show: | 3 - Atraxa (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Rather Late (9/2), 7 - Libby Loo (6/1), 8 - La Rose Blanche (9/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - Maya's Warrior (12/1), 6 - Lady Artist (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-1-4-8-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-8-1-5-4-3-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,600 | |
| Win: | 1 - Cutlass King (4/5) |
| Place: | 3 - Two Step Jake (3/1) |
| Show: | 4 - Severance (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Rumbling (7/1), 5 - Aspiring Comedian (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Solomon Vandy (15/1), 2 - Smile Like Kyle (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-1-4-5-7-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-4-7-6-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,000 | |
| Win: | 7 - Summer Of Mischief (2/5) |
| Place: | 9 - Stagflation (8/1) |
| Show: | 4 - Alternative Grace (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8 - Bethy (10/1), 5 - Midnight's Girl (12/1), 6 - Blaze Beauty (20/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 - Rock The Birdhouse (30/1), 3 - Miss Saipan (20/1), 2 - Ornery Angel (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-9-2-5-4-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-4-8-1-9-5-2-6-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #9, #4, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500 | |
| Win: | 8 - Sponge Bath (5/2) |
| Place: | 3 - Sound Of Victory (2/1) |
| Show: | 2 - Roussette (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Booming (8/1), 7 - City Of God (10/1), 9 - Patch O'brien (7/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Heartbreak Game (15/1), 5 - Black White N Gold (30/1), 1 - African Warrior (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-3-2-9-6-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 8-3-6-4-7-2-9-5-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race | |
| Race 7 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $40,500 | |
| Win: | 6 - Disguised Devil (9/5) |
| Place: | 2 - Biagoddess (4/1) |
| Show: | 9 - Lady Elise (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Bikini Martini (8/1), 1 - Devil (20/1), 4 - Bar Money (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Laly (15/1), 8 - Vasariah's Image (30/1), 5 - Hootie Hoot (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-1-7-9-4-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-7-4-9-8-1-3-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #9, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $38,500 | |
| Win: | 5 - Itdontcomeeasy (5/2) |
| Place: | 11 - Somethintobelieven (3/1) |
| Show: | 6 - Adam Five Oh (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 - Fight The Power (8/1), 10 - Ciao Tommaso (7/1), 1 - Tower Grove Park (12/1), 4 - Big Skookum (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 - Wahida Of Mardan (30/1), 8 - Senor Ruben (15/1), 2 - Playground Warrior (20/1), 9 - Chef Ray Wiley (30/1), 12 - Holden Michael (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 9-5-8-11-1-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-3-11-2-1-8-4-6-10-9-7-12 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #11, #6, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1, |
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ
Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.
| Pick 3 R1-3 | R1: #2,#1,#5 (72%) / R2: #1,#4,#3 (69%) / R3: #2,#3,#7 (51%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26% |
| Pick 3 R2-4 | R2: #1,#4,#3 (69%) / R3: #2,#3,#7 (51%) / R4: #1,#3,#7 (64%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23% |
| Pick 3 R4-6 | R4: #1,#3,#7 (64%) / R5: #7,#4,#8 (59%) / R6: #3,#2,#8 (57%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22% |
| Pick 3 R5-7 | R5: #7,#4,#8 (59%) / R6: #3,#2,#8 (57%) / R7: #6,#9,#2 (58%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19% |
| Pick 4 R1-4 | R1: #2,#1,#5 (72%) / R2: #1,#4,#3 (69%) / R3: #2,#3,#7 (51%) / R4: #1,#3,#7 (64%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17% |
| Pick 4 R2-5 | R2: #1,#4,#3 (69%) / R3: #2,#3,#7 (51%) / R4: #1,#3,#7 (64%) / R5: #7,#4,#8 (59%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 13% |
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
| ADAM FIVE OH | AFRICAN WARRIOR | ALTERNATIVE GRACE | ASPIRING COMEDIAN | ATRAXA |
| BEAR RILLA | BETHY | BIAGODDESS | BIG SKOOKUM | BIKINI MARTINI |
| BLAKELY'S BOY | BLAZE BEAUTY | BOOGIE BODE | BOOMING | CHEF RAY WILEY |
| CITY OF GOD | CUTLASS KING | DANG IT DAN | DEVIL | DISGUISED DEVIL |
| ELSIE'S LEGACY | FIGHT THE POWER | HEARTBREAK GAME | HOLDEN MICHAEL | HOOTIE HOOT |
| ITDONTCOMEEASY | LA ROSE BLANCHE | LADY ARTIST | LADY ELISE | LALY |
| LIBBY LOO | LICENSE TO STEAL | MAJOR CONTENDER | MAYA'S WARRIOR | MIDNIGHT MASTER |
| MILLARD'S SMILE | MISS SAIPAN | ORNERY ANGEL | PATCH O'BRIEN | PLAYGROUND WARRIOR |
| RATHER LATE | ROCK THE BIRDHOUSE | ROUSSETTE | RUMBLING | SENOR RUBEN |
| SMILE LIKE KYLE | SOLOMON VANDY | SOMETHINTOBELIEVEN | SOUND OF VICTORY | SPONGE BATH |
| SUMMER OF MISCHIEF | TAPINYOURBLUEJEANS | TOWER GROVE PARK | TWO STEP JAKE | VASARIAH'S IMAGE |
| WAHIDA OF MARDAN | WHITELICK ROAD |
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