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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Fairmount Park, September 29, 2026

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How did these picks do?

Results for this card as of 8:56 AM, graded from the official charts. Each row is that section's top pick in every race with a result; races still pending are not counted. The full week is in the weekly recap.

SectionRaces gradedWon2nd3rdWin %
Algo 1823025%
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)812112%
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)832038%
Experimental Weight Set 2822025%
Experimental Weight Set 3822125%

Kelly Edge Plays: 4 flagged longshot(s) graded, 0 won, 0 finished in the money.

AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied

Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.

Plays voided by scratches — these published value plays are officially scratched; win bets on them are refunds, so strike them from your card:

Where the experts back our strongest pick today

In 4 of today's 8 races, the published handicappers landed on the same horse as Algo 2, our best-performing model. That agreement is the strongest single signal we have measured: across 1,389 graded races, the races where they agreed won 39.8% of the time against 28.6% where they did not — a wider gap than between any two of our own algorithms.

Today's agreement races — FP 3, 4, 7, 8.

Which horse the two agree on is part of Algo 2, included with Insider and above. The race numbers above are free to everyone: if you are playing these races, you now know the experts and our strongest model are pointing the same way.


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Fairmount Park — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 90 graded races at Fairmount Park, 2026-08-18 to 2026-09-26.

0%10%20%30%40%Our top pick: 32.2% from 90 racesOur top pick32.2%Morning-line favourite: 28.9% from 90 racesMorning-line favourite28.9%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick32.2%90
Morning-line favourite28.9%90
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,100
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Smart Joker (3/1)
Place:7Strange Arrange (8/5)
Show:6Via Del Corso (7/2)
Other contenders:8Danza Taxi (6/1), 5Sonnyisnotsofunny (10/1), 1On The Money Red (10/1)
Rest of field:3Ice Again (20/1), 4Tapit Sam (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 461873
🎯 Longshots: 75213684
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #6, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Frosted Eclair (2/1)
Place:4Diva Las Vegas (1/1)
Show:5Long Tall Woman (12/1)
Other contenders:6Life Of Saturdays (5/1), 7Echo Dreamer (15/1)
Rest of field:2Primity (12/1), 3Delta Lady (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 726145
🎯 Longshots: 1457236
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:8Karazest (7/5)
Place:4Miss Duquoin (2/1)
Show:6Milaalah (6/1)
Other contenders:5Derby Gala (8/1), 7Last Candy (15/1), 3Shosweet (12/1)
Rest of field:2Set In Ice (30/1), 1Good Nellie (30/1), 10Frost Bitten Ears (30/1), 9Maggies Little Bee (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 184657
🎯 Longshots: 85473611092
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Mystic Power (9/5)
Place:2Patch O'brien (2/1)
Show:8Get Through (5/1)
Other contenders:3Mister Sharpie (7/1), 1City Of God (8/1), 5Granddaddylonglegs (15/1)
Rest of field:7Weslan (12/1), 6African Warrior (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 674238
🎯 Longshots: 41257836
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #8, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Call Me Christine (6/5)
Place:1Sunset Harbour (9/5)
Show:8Rietta (9/1)
Other contenders:5Secret Operation (10/1), 3Hootie Hoot (10/1), 7I Be Gone (15/1)
Rest of field:2Plum Irish (20/1), 4Golden Edge (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 851673
🎯 Longshots: 61852374
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #8, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $19,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Saint Ghaaleb (5/2)
Place:4Smoked (4/1)
Show:2Sally's Suprise (5/2)
Other contenders:5W W Grand Finale (8/1), 9Wampus Kitten (8/1), 1Samarita (10/1)
Rest of field:3Raceday Attire (10/1), 7Mamba Out (15/1), 6Anna After Midnite (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 468597
🎯 Longshots: 598321476
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $39,500
Win:4Gogh (5/2)
Place:2Man On Attack (5/1)
Show:10Earl's Outlaw (5/1)
Other contenders:1Coolthing (9/2), 8Baby I'm Hammered (6/1), 6Somethintobelieven (6/1)
Rest of field:7Stance (15/1), 3Diamnd Con Suerte (20/1), 9Steve (20/1), 5Canyon Shadows (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1321085
🎯 Longshots: 47312108965
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #10, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,800
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Spanish Doubloon (3/1)
Place:6Lou Man (4/1)
Show:7Basscoat (7/2)
Other contenders:4Army Hero (10/1), 9Lucky Boss (5/1), 11Shady Mcgee (12/1), 3Mon Ami Fuzzie (12/1)
Rest of field:1Juliaison (12/1), 10Millard's Smile (15/1), 8Best Man Speech (30/1), 2Ancient Man (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7810643
🎯 Longshots: 1041151768392
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,100
Win:7Strange Arrange (8/5) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -48%
Place:2Smart Joker (3/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Show:6Via Del Corso (7/2) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -33%
Other contenders:8Danza Taxi (6/1) 16% · fair 11-2, 5Sonnyisnotsofunny (10/1) 8% · fair 12-1, 1On The Money Red (10/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -29%
Rest of field:4Tapit Sam (20/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -35%, 3Ice Again (20/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -38%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Strange Arrange — 24.5% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Strange Arrange24.5% ◀Smart Joker — 23.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Smart Joker23.2%Via Del Corso — 16.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Via Del Corso16.1%Danza Taxi — 15.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Danza Taxi15.6%Sonnyisnotsofunny — 7.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Sonnyisnotsofunny7.7%On The Money Red — 6.7% win probability, morning line 10/1On The Money Red6.7%Tapit Sam — 3.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Tapit Sam3.2%Ice Again — 3.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Ice Again3.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Strange Arrange24.5%1.6/1
Smart Joker23.2%3/1
Via Del Corso16.1%3.5/1
Danza Taxi15.6%6/1
Sonnyisnotsofunny7.7%10/1
On The Money Red6.7%10/1
Tapit Sam3.2%20/1
Ice Again3.0%20/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherStrange Arrange: model 24.5% vs market 30.1% (-5.6 points)Strange Arrange-5.6Smart Joker: model 23.2% vs market 19.6% (+3.6 points)Smart Joker+3.6Via Del Corso: model 16.1% vs market 17.4% (-1.3 points)Via Del Corso-1.3Danza Taxi: model 15.6% vs market 11.2% (+4.4 points)Danza Taxi+4.4Sonnyisnotsofunny: model 7.7% vs market 7.1% (+0.6 points)Sonnyisnotsofunny+0.6On The Money Red: model 6.7% vs market 7.1% (-0.5 points)On The Money Red-0.5Tapit Sam: model 3.2% vs market 3.7% (-0.6 points)Tapit Sam-0.6Ice Again: model 3.0% vs market 3.7% (-0.7 points)Ice Again-0.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Strange Arrange24.5%30.1%-5.6
Smart Joker23.2%19.6%+3.6
Via Del Corso16.1%17.4%-1.3
Danza Taxi15.6%11.2%+4.4
Sonnyisnotsofunny7.7%7.1%+0.6
On The Money Red6.7%7.1%-0.5
Tapit Sam3.2%3.7%-0.6
Ice Again3.0%3.7%-0.7
🌧️ Off-track: 461837
🎯 Longshots: 75213684
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #6, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:1Frosted Eclair (2/1) 34% · fair 2-1
Place:4Diva Las Vegas (1/1) 32% · fair 2-1 underlay -54%
Show:6Life Of Saturdays (5/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:5Long Tall Woman (12/1) 8% · fair 11-1, 2Primity (12/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -25%
Rest of field:7Echo Dreamer (15/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -27%, 3Delta Lady (20/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -42%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Frosted Eclair — 33.9% win probability, morning line 2/1Frosted Eclair33.9% ◀Diva Las Vegas — 31.6% win probability, morning line 1/1Diva Las Vegas31.6%Life Of Saturdays — 13.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Life Of Saturdays13.0%Long Tall Woman — 8.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Long Tall Woman8.2%Primity — 5.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Primity5.9%Echo Dreamer — 4.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Echo Dreamer4.6%Delta Lady — 2.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Delta Lady2.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Frosted Eclair33.9%2/1
Diva Las Vegas31.6%1/1
Life Of Saturdays13.0%5/1
Long Tall Woman8.2%12/1
Primity5.9%12/1
Echo Dreamer4.6%15/1
Delta Lady2.8%20/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherFrosted Eclair: model 33.9% vs market 26.4% (+7.5 points)Frosted Eclair+7.5Diva Las Vegas: model 31.6% vs market 39.6% (-8.0 points)Diva Las Vegas-8.0Life Of Saturdays: model 13.0% vs market 13.2% (-0.1 points)Life Of Saturdays-0.1Long Tall Woman: model 8.2% vs market 6.1% (+2.1 points)Long Tall Woman+2.1Primity: model 5.9% vs market 6.1% (-0.2 points)Primity-0.2Echo Dreamer: model 4.6% vs market 4.9% (-0.3 points)Echo Dreamer-0.3Delta Lady: model 2.8% vs market 3.8% (-1.0 points)Delta Lady-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Frosted Eclair33.9%26.4%+7.5
Diva Las Vegas31.6%39.6%-8.0
Life Of Saturdays13.0%13.2%-0.1
Long Tall Woman8.2%6.1%+2.1
Primity5.9%6.1%-0.2
Echo Dreamer4.6%4.9%-0.3
Delta Lady2.8%3.8%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 726415
🎯 Longshots: 1457236
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:8Karazest (7/5) 44% · fair 3-2
Place:4Miss Duquoin (2/1) 24% · fair 3-1 underlay -36%
Show:6Milaalah (6/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -30%
Other contenders:5Derby Gala (8/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -48%, 3Shosweet (12/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -42%, 7Last Candy (15/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -34%
Rest of field:2Set In Ice (30/1) 2% · fair 95-2 underlay -37%, 10Frost Bitten Ears (30/1) 2% · fair 121-2 underlay -50%, 9Maggies Little Bee (30/1) 1% · fair 83-1 underlay -64%, 1Good Nellie (30/1) 1% · fair 171-2 underlay -65%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Karazest — 44.4% win probability, morning line 1.4/1Karazest44.4% ◀Miss Duquoin — 24.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Miss Duquoin24.1%Milaalah — 10.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Milaalah10.4%Derby Gala — 6.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Derby Gala6.1%Shosweet — 4.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Shosweet4.6%Last Candy — 4.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Last Candy4.2%Set In Ice — 2.1% win probability, morning line 30/1Set In Ice2.1%Frost Bitten Ears — 1.6% win probability, morning line 30/1Frost Bitten Ears1.6%Maggies Little Bee — 1.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Maggies Little Bee1.2%Good Nellie — 1.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Good Nellie1.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Karazest44.4%1.4/1
Miss Duquoin24.1%2/1
Milaalah10.4%6/1
Derby Gala6.1%8/1
Shosweet4.6%12/1
Last Candy4.2%15/1
Set In Ice2.1%30/1
Frost Bitten Ears1.6%30/1
Maggies Little Bee1.2%30/1
Good Nellie1.2%30/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherKarazest: model 44.4% vs market 32.7% (+11.7 points)Karazest+11.7Miss Duquoin: model 24.1% vs market 26.2% (-2.1 points)Miss Duquoin-2.1Milaalah: model 10.4% vs market 11.2% (-0.8 points)Milaalah-0.8Derby Gala: model 6.1% vs market 8.7% (-2.6 points)Derby Gala-2.6Shosweet: model 4.6% vs market 6.0% (-1.4 points)Shosweet-1.4Last Candy: model 4.2% vs market 4.9% (-0.7 points)Last Candy-0.7Set In Ice: model 2.1% vs market 2.5% (-0.5 points)Set In Ice-0.5Frost Bitten Ears: model 1.6% vs market 2.5% (-0.9 points)Frost Bitten Ears-0.9Maggies Little Bee: model 1.2% vs market 2.5% (-1.3 points)Maggies Little Bee-1.3Good Nellie: model 1.2% vs market 2.5% (-1.4 points)Good Nellie-1.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Karazest44.4%32.7%+11.7
Miss Duquoin24.1%26.2%-2.1
Milaalah10.4%11.2%-0.8
Derby Gala6.1%8.7%-2.6
Shosweet4.6%6.0%-1.4
Last Candy4.2%4.9%-0.7
Set In Ice2.1%2.5%-0.5
Frost Bitten Ears1.6%2.5%-0.9
Maggies Little Bee1.2%2.5%-1.3
Good Nellie1.2%2.5%-1.4
🌧️ Off-track: 184653
🎯 Longshots: 85473611092
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500
Win:2Patch O'brien (2/1) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:4Mystic Power (9/5) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -46%
Show:8Get Through (5/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:3Mister Sharpie (7/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 1City Of God (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 7Weslan (12/1) 6% · fair 31-2
Rest of field:5Granddaddylonglegs (15/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -38%, 6African Warrior (30/1) 2% · fair 105-2 underlay -43%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Patch O'Brien — 30.2% win probability, morning line 2/1Patch O'Brien30.2% ◀Mystic Power — 23.2% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Mystic Power23.2%Get Through — 13.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Get Through13.5%Mister Sharpie — 12.1% win probability, morning line 7/1Mister Sharpie12.1%City Of God — 9.1% win probability, morning line 8/1City Of God9.1%Weslan — 6.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Weslan6.1%Granddaddylonglegs — 3.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Granddaddylonglegs3.9%African Warrior — 1.9% win probability, morning line 30/1African Warrior1.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Patch O'Brien30.2%2/1
Mystic Power23.2%1.8/1
Get Through13.5%5/1
Mister Sharpie12.1%7/1
City Of God9.1%8/1
Weslan6.1%12/1
Granddaddylonglegs3.9%15/1
African Warrior1.9%30/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherPatch O'Brien: model 30.2% vs market 26.4% (+3.9 points)Patch O'Brien+3.9Mystic Power: model 23.2% vs market 28.2% (-5.0 points)Mystic Power-5.0Get Through: model 13.5% vs market 13.2% (+0.3 points)Get Through+0.3Mister Sharpie: model 12.1% vs market 9.9% (+2.2 points)Mister Sharpie+2.2City Of God: model 9.1% vs market 8.8% (+0.3 points)City Of God+0.3Weslan: model 6.1% vs market 6.1% (+0.0 points)Weslan+0.0Granddaddylonglegs: model 3.9% vs market 4.9% (-1.0 points)Granddaddylonglegs-1.0African Warrior: model 1.9% vs market 2.6% (-0.7 points)African Warrior-0.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Patch O'Brien30.2%26.4%+3.9
Mystic Power23.2%28.2%-5.0
Get Through13.5%13.2%+0.3
Mister Sharpie12.1%9.9%+2.2
City Of God9.1%8.8%+0.3
Weslan6.1%6.1%+0.0
Granddaddylonglegs3.9%4.9%-1.0
African Warrior1.9%2.6%-0.7
🌧️ Off-track: 673248
🎯 Longshots: 41257836
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #8, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,500
Win:6Call Me Christine (6/5) 35% · fair 2-1 underlay -34%
Place:1Sunset Harbour (9/5) 29% · fair 5-2 underlay -27%
Show:8Rietta (9/1) 13% · fair 7-1 overlay +33%
Other contenders:5Secret Operation (10/1) 8% · fair 23-2, 3Hootie Hoot (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -36%, 4Golden Edge (12/1) 4% · fair 27-1 underlay -56%
Rest of field:7I Be Gone (15/1) 3% · fair 30-1 underlay -50%, 2Plum Irish (20/1) 2% · fair 50-1 underlay -60%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Call Me Christine — 35.4% win probability, morning line 1.2/1Call Me Christine35.4% ◀Sunset Harbour — 28.8% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Sunset Harbour28.8%Rietta — 12.9% win probability, morning line 9/1Rietta12.9%Secret Operation — 8.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Secret Operation8.0%Hootie Hoot — 6.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Hootie Hoot6.1%Golden Edge — 3.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Golden Edge3.6%I Be Gone — 3.2% win probability, morning line 15/1I Be Gone3.2%Plum Irish — 2.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Plum Irish2.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Call Me Christine35.4%1.2/1
Sunset Harbour28.8%1.8/1
Rietta12.9%9/1
Secret Operation8.0%10/1
Hootie Hoot6.1%10/1
Golden Edge3.6%12/1
I Be Gone3.2%15/1
Plum Irish2.0%20/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCall Me Christine: model 35.4% vs market 35.5% (-0.0 points)Call Me Christine-0.0Sunset Harbour: model 28.8% vs market 27.9% (+0.9 points)Sunset Harbour+0.9Rietta: model 12.9% vs market 7.8% (+5.1 points)Rietta+5.1Secret Operation: model 8.0% vs market 7.1% (+0.9 points)Secret Operation+0.9Hootie Hoot: model 6.1% vs market 7.1% (-1.0 points)Hootie Hoot-1.0Golden Edge: model 3.6% vs market 6.0% (-2.5 points)Golden Edge-2.5I Be Gone: model 3.2% vs market 4.9% (-1.6 points)I Be Gone-1.6Plum Irish: model 2.0% vs market 3.7% (-1.8 points)Plum Irish-1.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Call Me Christine35.4%35.5%-0.0
Sunset Harbour28.8%27.9%+0.9
Rietta12.9%7.8%+5.1
Secret Operation8.0%7.1%+0.9
Hootie Hoot6.1%7.1%-1.0
Golden Edge3.6%6.0%-2.5
I Be Gone3.2%4.9%-1.6
Plum Irish2.0%3.7%-1.8
🌧️ Off-track: 851763
🎯 Longshots: 61852374
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #8, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:8Saint Ghaaleb (5/2) 26% · fair 3-1
Place:4Smoked (4/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Show:2Sally's Suprise (5/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -50%
Other contenders:5W W Grand Finale (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 9Wampus Kitten (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 3Raceday Attire (10/1) 8% · fair 11-1
Rest of field:1Samarita (10/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -42%, 7Mamba Out (15/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -37%, 6Anna After Midnite (30/1) 1% · fair 73-1 underlay -59%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Saint Ghaaleb — 25.8% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Saint Ghaaleb25.8% ◀Smoked — 17.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Smoked17.4%Sally'S Suprise — 16.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Sally'S Suprise16.6%W W Grand Finale — 11.0% win probability, morning line 8/1W W Grand Finale11.0%Wampus Kitten — 9.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Wampus Kitten9.9%Raceday Attire — 8.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Raceday Attire8.4%Samarita — 5.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Samarita5.5%Mamba Out — 4.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Mamba Out4.0%Anna After Midnite — 1.4% win probability, morning line 30/1Anna After Midnite1.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Saint Ghaaleb25.8%2.5/1
Smoked17.4%4/1
Sally'S Suprise16.6%2.5/1
W W Grand Finale11.0%8/1
Wampus Kitten9.9%8/1
Raceday Attire8.4%10/1
Samarita5.5%10/1
Mamba Out4.0%15/1
Anna After Midnite1.4%30/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSaint Ghaaleb: model 25.8% vs market 22.5% (+3.3 points)Saint Ghaaleb+3.3Smoked: model 17.4% vs market 15.7% (+1.6 points)Smoked+1.6Sally'S Suprise: model 16.6% vs market 22.5% (-5.9 points)Sally'S Suprise-5.9W W Grand Finale: model 11.0% vs market 8.7% (+2.2 points)W W Grand Finale+2.2Wampus Kitten: model 9.9% vs market 8.7% (+1.2 points)Wampus Kitten+1.2Raceday Attire: model 8.4% vs market 7.2% (+1.3 points)Raceday Attire+1.3Samarita: model 5.5% vs market 7.2% (-1.6 points)Samarita-1.6Mamba Out: model 4.0% vs market 4.9% (-0.9 points)Mamba Out-0.9Anna After Midnite: model 1.4% vs market 2.5% (-1.2 points)Anna After Midnite-1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Saint Ghaaleb25.8%22.5%+3.3
Smoked17.4%15.7%+1.6
Sally'S Suprise16.6%22.5%-5.9
W W Grand Finale11.0%8.7%+2.2
Wampus Kitten9.9%8.7%+1.2
Raceday Attire8.4%7.2%+1.3
Samarita5.5%7.2%-1.6
Mamba Out4.0%4.9%-0.9
Anna After Midnite1.4%2.5%-1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 647859
🎯 Longshots: 598321476
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $39,500
Win:4Gogh (5/2) 24% · fair 3-1
Place:10Earl's Outlaw (5/1) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:1Coolthing (9/2) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -33%
Other contenders:8Baby I'm Hammered (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 2Man On Attack (5/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -44%, 6Somethintobelieven (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -35%
Rest of field:7Stance (15/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -31%, 5Canyon Shadows (30/1) 3% · fair 28-1, 9Steve (20/1) 3% · fair 31-1 underlay -35%, 3Diamnd Con Suerte (20/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -38%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Gogh — 23.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Gogh23.7% ◀Earl'S Outlaw — 17.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Earl'S Outlaw17.7%Coolthing — 12.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Coolthing12.9%Baby I'M Hammered — 11.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Baby I'M Hammered11.8%Man On Attack — 10.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Man On Attack10.1%Somethintobelieven — 9.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Somethintobelieven9.8%Stance — 4.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Stance4.4%Canyon Shadows — 3.4% win probability, morning line 30/1Canyon Shadows3.4%Steve — 3.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Steve3.1%Diamnd Con Suerte — 3.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Diamnd Con Suerte3.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Gogh23.7%2.5/1
Earl'S Outlaw17.7%5/1
Coolthing12.9%4.5/1
Baby I'M Hammered11.8%6/1
Man On Attack10.1%5/1
Somethintobelieven9.8%6/1
Stance4.4%15/1
Canyon Shadows3.4%30/1
Steve3.1%20/1
Diamnd Con Suerte3.0%20/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGogh: model 23.7% vs market 22.4% (+1.3 points)Gogh+1.3Earl'S Outlaw: model 17.7% vs market 13.1% (+4.6 points)Earl'S Outlaw+4.6Coolthing: model 12.9% vs market 14.2% (-1.4 points)Coolthing-1.4Baby I'M Hammered: model 11.8% vs market 11.2% (+0.6 points)Baby I'M Hammered+0.6Man On Attack: model 10.1% vs market 13.1% (-2.9 points)Man On Attack-2.9Somethintobelieven: model 9.8% vs market 11.2% (-1.4 points)Somethintobelieven-1.4Stance: model 4.4% vs market 4.9% (-0.5 points)Stance-0.5Canyon Shadows: model 3.4% vs market 2.5% (+0.9 points)Canyon Shadows+0.9Steve: model 3.1% vs market 3.7% (-0.6 points)Steve-0.6Diamnd Con Suerte: model 3.0% vs market 3.7% (-0.7 points)Diamnd Con Suerte-0.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Gogh23.7%22.4%+1.3
Earl'S Outlaw17.7%13.1%+4.6
Coolthing12.9%14.2%-1.4
Baby I'M Hammered11.8%11.2%+0.6
Man On Attack10.1%13.1%-2.9
Somethintobelieven9.8%11.2%-1.4
Stance4.4%4.9%-0.5
Canyon Shadows3.4%2.5%+0.9
Steve3.1%3.7%-0.6
Diamnd Con Suerte3.0%3.7%-0.7
🌧️ Off-track: 3121058
🎯 Longshots: 47312108965
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #10, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,800
Win:5Spanish Doubloon (3/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Place:6Lou Man (4/1) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:9Lucky Boss (5/1) 15% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:7Basscoat (7/2) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -40%, 4Army Hero (10/1) 7% · fair 13-1, 11Shady Mcgee (12/1) 6% · fair 29-2, 10Millard's Smile (15/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -33%
Rest of field:3Mon Ami Fuzzie (12/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -47%, 1Juliaison (12/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -51%, 8Best Man Speech (30/1) 2% · fair 97-2 underlay -38%, 2Ancient Man (30/1) 1% · fair 92-1 underlay -67%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Spanish Doubloon — 23.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Spanish Doubloon23.0% ◀Lou Man — 18.0% win probability, morning line 4/1Lou Man18.0%Lucky Boss — 15.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Lucky Boss15.2%Basscoat — 14.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Basscoat14.7%Army Hero — 7.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Army Hero7.1%Shady Mcgee — 6.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Shady Mcgee6.4%Millard'S Smile — 4.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Millard'S Smile4.3%Mon Ami Fuzzie — 4.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Mon Ami Fuzzie4.2%Juliaison — 3.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Juliaison3.9%Best Man Speech — 2.0% win probability, morning line 30/1Best Man Speech2.0%Ancient Man — 1.1% win probability, morning line 30/1Ancient Man1.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Spanish Doubloon23.0%3/1
Lou Man18.0%4/1
Lucky Boss15.2%5/1
Basscoat14.7%3.5/1
Army Hero7.1%10/1
Shady Mcgee6.4%12/1
Millard'S Smile4.3%15/1
Mon Ami Fuzzie4.2%12/1
Juliaison3.9%12/1
Best Man Speech2.0%30/1
Ancient Man1.1%30/1
🌧️ Off-track: 7810631
🎯 Longshots: 1041151768392
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #9, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Fairmount Park — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 337 graded races at Fairmount Park, 2026-04-14 to 2026-09-26.

0%11%22%33%45%Our top pick: 35.6% from 337 racesOur top pick35.6%Morning-line favourite: 33.5% from 337 racesMorning-line favourite33.5%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick35.6%337
Morning-line favourite33.5%337
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,100
Win:7Strange Arrange (8/5)
Place:6Via Del Corso (7/2)
Show:2Smart Joker (3/1)
Other contenders:5Sonnyisnotsofunny (10/1), 8Danza Taxi (6/1), 1On The Money Red (10/1)
Rest of field:4Tapit Sam (20/1), 3Ice Again (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 678154
🎯 Longshots: 75213684
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:1Frosted Eclair (2/1)
Place:4Diva Las Vegas (1/1)
Show:7Echo Dreamer (15/1)
Other contenders:6Life Of Saturdays (5/1), 5Long Tall Woman (12/1)
Rest of field:2Primity (12/1), 3Delta Lady (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 714265
🎯 Longshots: 1457236
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:8Karazest (7/5)
Place:6Milaalah (6/1)
Show:4Miss Duquoin (2/1)
Other contenders:5Derby Gala (8/1), 3Shosweet (12/1), 1Good Nellie (30/1)
Rest of field:7Last Candy (15/1), 10Frost Bitten Ears (30/1), 2Set In Ice (30/1), 9Maggies Little Bee (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 186453
🎯 Longshots: 85473611092
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #6, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500
Win:2Patch O'brien (2/1)
Place:4Mystic Power (9/5)
Show:1City Of God (8/1)
Other contenders:8Get Through (5/1), 3Mister Sharpie (7/1), 7Weslan (12/1)
Rest of field:5Granddaddylonglegs (15/1), 6African Warrior (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 247385
🎯 Longshots: 41257836
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,500
Win:1Sunset Harbour (9/5)
Place:6Call Me Christine (6/5)
Show:8Rietta (9/1)
Other contenders:3Hootie Hoot (10/1), 5Secret Operation (10/1), 2Plum Irish (20/1)
Rest of field:4Golden Edge (12/1), 7I Be Gone (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 816532
🎯 Longshots: 61852374
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #8, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:2Sally's Suprise (5/2)
Place:4Smoked (4/1)
Show:5W W Grand Finale (8/1)
Other contenders:8Saint Ghaaleb (5/2), 9Wampus Kitten (8/1), 1Samarita (10/1)
Rest of field:3Raceday Attire (10/1), 7Mamba Out (15/1), 6Anna After Midnite (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 485921
🎯 Longshots: 598321476
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $39,500
Win:4Gogh (5/2)
Place:1Coolthing (9/2)
Show:2Man On Attack (5/1)
Other contenders:8Baby I'm Hammered (6/1), 3Diamnd Con Suerte (20/1), 6Somethintobelieven (6/1)
Rest of field:7Stance (15/1), 10Earl's Outlaw (5/1), 9Steve (20/1), 5Canyon Shadows (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1328107
🎯 Longshots: 47312108965
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,800
Win:5Spanish Doubloon (3/1)
Place:6Lou Man (4/1)
Show:7Basscoat (7/2)
Other contenders:9Lucky Boss (5/1), 4Army Hero (10/1), 11Shady Mcgee (12/1), 3Mon Ami Fuzzie (12/1)
Rest of field:10Millard's Smile (15/1), 8Best Man Speech (30/1), 1Juliaison (12/1), 2Ancient Man (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7681043
🎯 Longshots: 1041151768392
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #7, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #7 over #2 ($1 straight; box #7-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #7, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #4, #6, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #8 over #4 ($1 straight; box #8-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #6, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #4 over #2 ($1 straight; box #4-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #2, #3, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #6 over #1 ($1 straight; box #6-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #1, #8, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #8 over #4 ($1 straight; box #8-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #2, #8, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #4 over #1 ($1 straight; box #4-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #2, #1, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #5 over #6 ($1 straight; box #5-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #7, #9, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.39 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
88Best Man Speech30/1—5.2%+62.0%0.52%$0.52
84Army Hero10/1—12.1%+34.1%0.85%$0.85
37Last Candy15/1—7.2%+16.3%0.27%$0.27
31Good Nellie ⚠ low confidence / high risk (maiden, 20-1 or longer)30/1—3.7%+15.3%0.13%$0.13
32Set In Ice ⚠ low confidence / high risk (maiden, 20-1 or longer)30/1—3.6%+10.8%0.09%$0.09
TOTAL across 5 plays:1.9%$1.86
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,100
Win:5Sonnyisnotsofunny (10/1)
Place:6Via Del Corso (7/2)
Show:7Strange Arrange (8/5)
Other contenders:2Smart Joker (3/1), 8Danza Taxi (6/1), 1On The Money Red (10/1)
Rest of field:3Ice Again (20/1), 4Tapit Sam (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 657821
🎯 Longshots: 75213684
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:4Diva Las Vegas (1/1)
Place:1Frosted Eclair (2/1)
Show:6Life Of Saturdays (5/1)
Other contenders:7Echo Dreamer (15/1), 5Long Tall Woman (12/1)
Rest of field:2Primity (12/1), 3Delta Lady (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 741625
🎯 Longshots: 1457236
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:8Karazest (7/5)
Place:4Miss Duquoin (2/1)
Show:6Milaalah (6/1)
Other contenders:1Good Nellie (30/1), 5Derby Gala (8/1), 3Shosweet (12/1)
Rest of field:7Last Candy (15/1), 2Set In Ice (30/1), 10Frost Bitten Ears (30/1), 9Maggies Little Bee (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 184653
🎯 Longshots: 85473611092
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500
Win:4Mystic Power (9/5)
Place:2Patch O'brien (2/1)
Show:1City Of God (8/1)
Other contenders:8Get Through (5/1), 3Mister Sharpie (7/1), 5Granddaddylonglegs (15/1)
Rest of field:7Weslan (12/1), 6African Warrior (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 428317
🎯 Longshots: 41257836
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,500
Win:1Sunset Harbour (9/5)
Place:6Call Me Christine (6/5)
Show:8Rietta (9/1)
Other contenders:3Hootie Hoot (10/1), 5Secret Operation (10/1), 7I Be Gone (15/1)
Rest of field:2Plum Irish (20/1), 4Golden Edge (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 816357
🎯 Longshots: 61852374
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #8, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:4Smoked (4/1)
Place:8Saint Ghaaleb (5/2)
Show:2Sally's Suprise (5/2)
Other contenders:9Wampus Kitten (8/1), 5W W Grand Finale (8/1), 1Samarita (10/1)
Rest of field:3Raceday Attire (10/1), 7Mamba Out (15/1), 6Anna After Midnite (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 489512
🎯 Longshots: 598321476
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #8, #2, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $39,500
Win:4Gogh (5/2)
Place:3Diamnd Con Suerte (20/1)
Show:1Coolthing (9/2)
Other contenders:2Man On Attack (5/1), 8Baby I'm Hammered (6/1), 6Somethintobelieven (6/1)
Rest of field:10Earl's Outlaw (5/1), 7Stance (15/1), 9Steve (20/1), 5Canyon Shadows (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3142810
🎯 Longshots: 47312108965
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,800
Win:5Spanish Doubloon (3/1)
Place:9Lucky Boss (5/1)
Show:4Army Hero (10/1)
Other contenders:6Lou Man (4/1), 7Basscoat (7/2), 10Millard's Smile (15/1), 11Shady Mcgee (12/1)
Rest of field:1Juliaison (12/1), 8Best Man Speech (30/1), 3Mon Ami Fuzzie (12/1), 2Ancient Man (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7641081
🎯 Longshots: 1041151768392
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #9, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,100
Win:2Smart Joker (3/1)
Place:7Strange Arrange (8/5)
Show:5Sonnyisnotsofunny (10/1)
Other contenders:6Via Del Corso (7/2), 8Danza Taxi (6/1), 1On The Money Red (10/1)
Rest of field:3Ice Again (20/1), 4Tapit Sam (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 672581
🎯 Longshots: 75213684
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,000
Win:1Frosted Eclair (2/1)
Place:4Diva Las Vegas (1/1)
Show:6Life Of Saturdays (5/1)
Other contenders:7Echo Dreamer (15/1), 5Long Tall Woman (12/1)
Rest of field:2Primity (12/1), 3Delta Lady (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 714625
🎯 Longshots: 1457236
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:8Karazest (7/5)
Place:6Milaalah (6/1)
Show:4Miss Duquoin (2/1)
Other contenders:5Derby Gala (8/1), 3Shosweet (12/1), 7Last Candy (15/1)
Rest of field:1Good Nellie (30/1), 10Frost Bitten Ears (30/1), 2Set In Ice (30/1), 9Maggies Little Bee (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 816453
🎯 Longshots: 85473611092
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #6, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500
Win:4Mystic Power (9/5)
Place:2Patch O'brien (2/1)
Show:3Mister Sharpie (7/1)
Other contenders:8Get Through (5/1), 1City Of God (8/1), 5Granddaddylonglegs (15/1)
Rest of field:7Weslan (12/1), 6African Warrior (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 423875
🎯 Longshots: 41257836
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,500
Win:6Call Me Christine (6/5)
Place:1Sunset Harbour (9/5)
Show:8Rietta (9/1)
Other contenders:3Hootie Hoot (10/1), 5Secret Operation (10/1), 4Golden Edge (12/1)
Rest of field:7I Be Gone (15/1), 2Plum Irish (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 816537
🎯 Longshots: 61852374
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #8, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:4Smoked (4/1)
Place:2Sally's Suprise (5/2)
Show:8Saint Ghaaleb (5/2)
Other contenders:5W W Grand Finale (8/1), 9Wampus Kitten (8/1), 1Samarita (10/1)
Rest of field:3Raceday Attire (10/1), 7Mamba Out (15/1), 6Anna After Midnite (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 485921
🎯 Longshots: 598321476
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #8, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $39,500
Win:4Gogh (5/2)
Place:2Man On Attack (5/1)
Show:1Coolthing (9/2)
Other contenders:7Stance (15/1), 6Somethintobelieven (6/1), 10Earl's Outlaw (5/1)
Rest of field:8Baby I'm Hammered (6/1), 3Diamnd Con Suerte (20/1), 9Steve (20/1), 5Canyon Shadows (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2110347
🎯 Longshots: 47312108965
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $10,800
Win:5Spanish Doubloon (3/1)
Place:7Basscoat (7/2)
Show:9Lucky Boss (5/1)
Other contenders:6Lou Man (4/1), 11Shady Mcgee (12/1), 4Army Hero (10/1), 3Mon Ami Fuzzie (12/1)
Rest of field:1Juliaison (12/1), 10Millard's Smile (15/1), 8Best Man Speech (30/1), 2Ancient Man (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7631410
🎯 Longshots: 1041151768392
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #9, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #7,#2,#6 (64%) / R2: #1,#4 (65%) / R3: #8,#4 (69%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #1,#4 (65%) / R3: #8,#4 (69%) / R4: #2,#4,#8 (67%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 30%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #8,#4 (69%) / R4: #2,#4,#8 (67%) / R5: #6,#1 (64%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #2,#4,#8 (67%) / R5: #6,#1 (64%) / R6: #8,#4,#2 (60%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #7,#2,#6 (64%) / R2: #1,#4 (65%) / R3: #8,#4 (69%) / R4: #2,#4,#8 (67%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #1,#4 (65%) / R3: #8,#4 (69%) / R4: #2,#4,#8 (67%) / R5: #6,#1 (64%)
$24 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
AFRICAN WARRIORANCIENT MANANNA AFTER MIDNITEARMY HEROBABY I'M HAMMERED
BEST MAN SPEECHCALL ME CHRISTINECANYON SHADOWSCITY OF GODCOOLTHING
DELTA LADYDERBY GALADIAMND CON SUERTEDIVA LAS VEGASEARL'S OUTLAW
FROST BITTEN EARSFROSTED ECLAIRGET THROUGHGOGHGOLDEN EDGE
GRANDDADDYLONGLEGSHOOTIE HOOTI BE GONEICE AGAINJULIAISON
LAST CANDYLIFE OF SATURDAYSLONG TALL WOMANLOU MANLUCKY BOSS
MAMBA OUTMAN ON ATTACKMILAALAHMILLARD'S SMILEMISS DUQUOIN
MON AMI FUZZIEMYSTIC POWERON THE MONEY REDPATCH O'BRIENPLUM IRISH
RACEDAY ATTIRERIETTASAINT GHAALEBSALLY'S SUPRISESAMARITA
SET IN ICESHADY MCGEESHOSWEETSMART JOKERSMOKED
SONNYISNOTSOFUNNYSPANISH DOUBLOONSTANCESTEVESTRANGE ARRANGE
TAPIT SAMVIA DEL CORSOW W GRAND FINALEWAMPUS KITTENWESLAN

 


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