Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Finger Lakes Racetrack, October 20, 2026


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Finger Lakes Racetrack — in-the-money rate

How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 200 graded races at Finger Lakes Racetrack, 2026-08-18 to 2026-10-14.

0%24%47%71%94%Our top pick: 75.5% from 200 racesOur top pick75.5%Morning-line favourite: 73.5% from 200 racesMorning-line favourite73.5%

In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick75.5%200
Morning-line favourite73.5%200
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,500
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Serra (6/5)
Place:2Rumblyoungmanrumbl (5/2)
Show:3By Mink Standards (7/2)
Other contenders:4Magic Beach (8/1), 1Call Saul (10/1)
Rest of field:6Jake's Orchard (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 523416
🎯 Longshots: 542631
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $17,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Tiz's Cupcake (2/1)
Place:2Solo Belle (5/2)
Show:3Lady On The Lam (7/2)
Other contenders:1Nice Try Cat (5/1), 5Winning Rose (8/1)
Rest of field:6Turbo Gray (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 423156
🎯 Longshots: 423156
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Foxy Cara (8/5)
Place:1Beauty's Bangle (5/2)
Show:2Bayou Melody (4/1)
Other contenders:6Bustinroxy (5/1), 4Sweet Tooth Sue (10/1)
Rest of field:5In Traffic (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 312645
🎯 Longshots: 314256
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,800
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Last Drink (2/1)
Place:1Bad Joke (7/2)
Show:5Montauk Surf (5/2)
Other contenders:3Disco Dancer (6/1), 6Burning Munny (10/1)
Rest of field:7Dignified Response (12/1), 2Not My Type (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 451367
🎯 Longshots: 4156237
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,800
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Motown Omi (3/1)
Place:7Big Advantage (7/2)
Show:2Nurse Bunny (4/1)
Other contenders:6Ring Of The Rise (6/1), 9Lollipops (12/1), 3Heavens Lee (6/1)
Rest of field:5Moonlit Weekend (8/1), 8Classiwest (20/1), 1Cue The Music (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 472639
🎯 Longshots: 498572136
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $32,600
Win:4Bajan Sugar (5/2)
Place:3Locked Horns (3/1)
Show:1Johnny Castle (5/1)
Other contenders:6Mr Rigatoni (4/1), 2Follow The Prints (6/1)
Rest of field:5Mindyourmanners (6/1), 7Partners N Crime (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 431625
🎯 Longshots: 4315627
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $24,500
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Our Preferred Pal (2/1)
Place:1Lipan Law (4/1)
Show:3Last Glory (3/1)
Other contenders:2Rumint (6/1), 6Moontown (6/1)
Rest of field:7Apollonia Vitelli (8/1), 5Rubys Mission (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 431267
🎯 Longshots: 4731265
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,700
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:9Successful Agenda (5/2)
Place:1Wayward Queen (3/1)
Show:4Flying Phoebe (4/1)
Other contenders:2Maize Loved Laffy (6/1), 5Volamo (8/1), 3Lucky And Gorgeous (10/1)
Rest of field:7Bounty Killah (20/1), 8Outta The Cloud (20/1), 6Stella Brown (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 914253
🎯 Longshots: 953147286
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #1, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Finger Lakes Racetrack — win rate vs the experts

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 137 graded races at Finger Lakes Racetrack, 2026-09-07 to 2026-10-14.

0%12%23%35%47%Our top pick: 37.2% from 137 racesOur top pick37.2%Expert consensus pick: 35.0% from 137 racesExpert consensus pick35.0%

The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick37.2%137
Expert consensus pick35.0%137
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,500
Win:5Serra (6/5) 37% · fair 3-2 underlay -31%
Place:2Rumblyoungmanrumbl (5/2) 25% · fair 3-1
Show:3By Mink Standards (7/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:4Magic Beach (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 1Call Saul (10/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -61%
Rest of field:6Jake's Orchard (15/1) 3% · fair 63-2 underlay -52%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Serra — 36.6% win probability, morning line 1.2/1Serra36.6% ◀Rumblyoungmanrumbl — 25.0% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Rumblyoungmanrumbl25.0%By Mink Standards — 20.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1By Mink Standards20.4%Magic Beach — 11.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Magic Beach11.2%Call Saul — 3.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Call Saul3.7%Jake'S Orchard — 3.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Jake'S Orchard3.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Serra36.6%1.2/1
Rumblyoungmanrumbl25.0%2.5/1
By Mink Standards20.4%3.5/1
Magic Beach11.2%8/1
Call Saul3.7%10/1
Jake'S Orchard3.1%15/1
🌧️ Off-track: 523416
🎯 Longshots: 542631
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $17,000
Win:4Tiz's Cupcake (2/1) 40% · fair 3-2 overlay +31%
Place:2Solo Belle (5/2) 24% · fair 3-1
Show:1Nice Try Cat (5/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:5Winning Rose (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 3Lady On The Lam (7/2) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -69%
Rest of field:6Turbo Gray (8/1) 1% · fair 179-2 underlay -91%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Tiz'S Cupcake — 39.5% win probability, morning line 2/1Tiz'S Cupcake39.5% ◀Solo Belle — 23.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Solo Belle23.7%Nice Try Cat — 16.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Nice Try Cat16.5%Winning Rose — 11.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Winning Rose11.1%Lady On The Lam — 8.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Lady On The Lam8.2%Turbo Gray — 1.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Turbo Gray1.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Tiz'S Cupcake39.5%2/1
Solo Belle23.7%2.5/1
Nice Try Cat16.5%5/1
Winning Rose11.1%8/1
Lady On The Lam8.2%3.5/1
Turbo Gray1.1%8/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTiz'S Cupcake: model 39.5% vs market 27.1% (+12.4 points)Tiz'S Cupcake+12.4Solo Belle: model 23.7% vs market 23.2% (+0.4 points)Solo Belle+0.4Nice Try Cat: model 16.5% vs market 13.5% (+3.0 points)Nice Try Cat+3.0Winning Rose: model 11.1% vs market 9.0% (+2.0 points)Winning Rose+2.0Lady On The Lam: model 8.2% vs market 18.1% (-9.9 points)Lady On The Lam-9.9Turbo Gray: model 1.1% vs market 9.0% (-7.9 points)Turbo Gray-7.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Tiz'S Cupcake39.5%27.1%+12.4
Solo Belle23.7%23.2%+0.4
Nice Try Cat16.5%13.5%+3.0
Winning Rose11.1%9.0%+2.0
Lady On The Lam8.2%18.1%-9.9
Turbo Gray1.1%9.0%-7.9
🌧️ Off-track: 421356
🎯 Longshots: 423156
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:3Foxy Cara (8/5) 33% · fair 2-1
Place:1Beauty's Bangle (5/2) 26% · fair 3-1
Show:2Bayou Melody (4/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:6Bustinroxy (5/1) 14% · fair 6-1, 4Sweet Tooth Sue (10/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -59%
Rest of field:5In Traffic (15/1) 3% · fair 55-2 underlay -46%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Foxy Cara — 32.8% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Foxy Cara32.8% ◀Beauty'S Bangle — 25.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Beauty'S Bangle25.7%Bayou Melody — 20.0% win probability, morning line 4/1Bayou Melody20.0%Bustinroxy — 14.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Bustinroxy14.1%Sweet Tooth Sue — 3.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Sweet Tooth Sue3.9%In Traffic — 3.5% win probability, morning line 15/1In Traffic3.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Foxy Cara32.8%1.6/1
Beauty'S Bangle25.7%2.5/1
Bayou Melody20.0%4/1
Bustinroxy14.1%5/1
Sweet Tooth Sue3.9%10/1
In Traffic3.5%15/1
🌧️ Off-track: 312645
🎯 Longshots: 314256
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,800
Win:4Last Drink (2/1) 29% · fair 5-2
Place:1Bad Joke (7/2) 27% · fair 5-2 overlay +30%
Show:5Montauk Surf (5/2) 21% · fair 4-1 underlay -34%
Other contenders:3Disco Dancer (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -40%, 6Burning Munny (10/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -46%
Rest of field:7Dignified Response (12/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -43%, 2Not My Type (15/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -35%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Last Drink — 29.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Last Drink29.1% ◀Bad Joke — 27.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Bad Joke27.1%Montauk Surf — 20.8% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Montauk Surf20.8%Disco Dancer — 9.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Disco Dancer9.1%Burning Munny — 5.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Burning Munny5.1%Dignified Response — 4.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Dignified Response4.5%Not My Type — 4.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Not My Type4.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Last Drink29.1%2/1
Bad Joke27.1%3.5/1
Montauk Surf20.8%2.5/1
Disco Dancer9.1%6/1
Burning Munny5.1%10/1
Dignified Response4.5%12/1
Not My Type4.2%15/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherLast Drink: model 29.1% vs market 27.4% (+1.6 points)Last Drink+1.6Bad Joke: model 27.1% vs market 18.3% (+8.8 points)Bad Joke+8.8Montauk Surf: model 20.8% vs market 23.5% (-2.7 points)Montauk Surf-2.7Disco Dancer: model 9.1% vs market 11.8% (-2.6 points)Disco Dancer-2.6Burning Munny: model 5.1% vs market 7.5% (-2.4 points)Burning Munny-2.4Dignified Response: model 4.5% vs market 6.3% (-1.8 points)Dignified Response-1.8Not My Type: model 4.2% vs market 5.1% (-1.0 points)Not My Type-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Last Drink29.1%27.4%+1.6
Bad Joke27.1%18.3%+8.8
Montauk Surf20.8%23.5%-2.7
Disco Dancer9.1%11.8%-2.6
Burning Munny5.1%7.5%-2.4
Dignified Response4.5%6.3%-1.8
Not My Type4.2%5.1%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 415367
🎯 Longshots: 4156237
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,800
Win:7Big Advantage (7/2) 22% · fair 7-2
Place:4Motown Omi (3/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Show:2Nurse Bunny (4/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:6Ring Of The Rise (6/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -45%, 9Lollipops (12/1) 8% · fair 11-1, 5Moonlit Weekend (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -35%
Rest of field:3Heavens Lee (6/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -55%, 8Classiwest (20/1) 5% · fair 39-2, 1Cue The Music (15/1) 4% · fair 25-1 underlay -40%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Big Advantage — 21.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Big Advantage21.6% ◀Motown Omi — 21.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Motown Omi21.5%Nurse Bunny — 17.0% win probability, morning line 4/1Nurse Bunny17.0%Ring Of The Rise — 8.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Ring Of The Rise8.4%Lollipops — 8.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Lollipops8.3%Moonlit Weekend — 7.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Moonlit Weekend7.5%Heavens Lee — 7.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Heavens Lee7.0%Classiwest — 4.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Classiwest4.9%Cue The Music — 3.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Cue The Music3.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Big Advantage21.6%3.5/1
Motown Omi21.5%3/1
Nurse Bunny17.0%4/1
Ring Of The Rise8.4%6/1
Lollipops8.3%12/1
Moonlit Weekend7.5%8/1
Heavens Lee7.0%6/1
Classiwest4.9%20/1
Cue The Music3.9%15/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBig Advantage: model 21.6% vs market 17.7% (+3.9 points)Big Advantage+3.9Motown Omi: model 21.5% vs market 19.9% (+1.6 points)Motown Omi+1.6Nurse Bunny: model 17.0% vs market 15.9% (+1.0 points)Nurse Bunny+1.0Ring Of The Rise: model 8.4% vs market 11.4% (-2.9 points)Ring Of The Rise-2.9Lollipops: model 8.3% vs market 6.1% (+2.2 points)Lollipops+2.2Moonlit Weekend: model 7.5% vs market 8.8% (-1.4 points)Moonlit Weekend-1.4Heavens Lee: model 7.0% vs market 11.4% (-4.4 points)Heavens Lee-4.4Classiwest: model 4.9% vs market 3.8% (+1.1 points)Classiwest+1.1Cue The Music: model 3.9% vs market 5.0% (-1.1 points)Cue The Music-1.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Big Advantage21.6%17.7%+3.9
Motown Omi21.5%19.9%+1.6
Nurse Bunny17.0%15.9%+1.0
Ring Of The Rise8.4%11.4%-2.9
Lollipops8.3%6.1%+2.2
Moonlit Weekend7.5%8.8%-1.4
Heavens Lee7.0%11.4%-4.4
Classiwest4.9%3.8%+1.1
Cue The Music3.9%5.0%-1.1
🌧️ Off-track: 472635
🎯 Longshots: 498572136
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $32,600
Win:4Bajan Sugar (5/2) 24% · fair 3-1
Place:3Locked Horns (3/1) 21% · fair 4-1
Show:1Johnny Castle (5/1) 20% · fair 4-1 overlay +28%
Other contenders:5Mindyourmanners (6/1) 13% · fair 7-1, 2Follow The Prints (6/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -31%
Rest of field:6Mr Rigatoni (4/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -65%, 7Partners N Crime (12/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -51%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Bajan Sugar — 23.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Bajan Sugar23.9% ◀Locked Horns — 20.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Locked Horns20.9%Johnny Castle — 20.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Johnny Castle20.4%Mindyourmanners — 12.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Mindyourmanners12.6%Follow The Prints — 10.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Follow The Prints10.4%Mr Rigatoni — 8.0% win probability, morning line 4/1Mr Rigatoni8.0%Partners N Crime — 3.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Partners N Crime3.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Bajan Sugar23.9%2.5/1
Locked Horns20.9%3/1
Johnny Castle20.4%5/1
Mindyourmanners12.6%6/1
Follow The Prints10.4%6/1
Mr Rigatoni8.0%4/1
Partners N Crime3.9%12/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBajan Sugar: model 23.9% vs market 22.6% (+1.3 points)Bajan Sugar+1.3Locked Horns: model 20.9% vs market 19.8% (+1.1 points)Locked Horns+1.1Johnny Castle: model 20.4% vs market 13.2% (+7.2 points)Johnny Castle+7.2Mindyourmanners: model 12.6% vs market 11.3% (+1.3 points)Mindyourmanners+1.3Follow The Prints: model 10.4% vs market 11.3% (-0.9 points)Follow The Prints-0.9Mr Rigatoni: model 8.0% vs market 15.8% (-7.8 points)Mr Rigatoni-7.8Partners N Crime: model 3.9% vs market 6.1% (-2.2 points)Partners N Crime-2.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Bajan Sugar23.9%22.6%+1.3
Locked Horns20.9%19.8%+1.1
Johnny Castle20.4%13.2%+7.2
Mindyourmanners12.6%11.3%+1.3
Follow The Prints10.4%11.3%-0.9
Mr Rigatoni8.0%15.8%-7.8
Partners N Crime3.9%6.1%-2.2
🌧️ Off-track: 431562
🎯 Longshots: 4315627
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $24,500
Win:4Our Preferred Pal (2/1) 33% · fair 2-1
Place:3Last Glory (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -40%
Show:1Lipan Law (4/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:2Rumint (6/1) 14% · fair 6-1, 6Moontown (6/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -36%
Rest of field:7Apollonia Vitelli (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -32%, 5Rubys Mission (15/1) 2% · fair 40-1 underlay -63%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Our Preferred Pal — 32.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Our Preferred Pal32.6% ◀Last Glory — 16.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Last Glory16.7%Lipan Law — 16.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Lipan Law16.4%Rumint — 14.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Rumint14.3%Moontown — 9.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Moontown9.6%Apollonia Vitelli — 7.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Apollonia Vitelli7.9%Rubys Mission — 2.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Rubys Mission2.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Our Preferred Pal32.6%2/1
Last Glory16.7%3/1
Lipan Law16.4%4/1
Rumint14.3%6/1
Moontown9.6%6/1
Apollonia Vitelli7.9%8/1
Rubys Mission2.4%15/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherOur Preferred Pal: model 32.6% vs market 26.8% (+5.8 points)Our Preferred Pal+5.8Last Glory: model 16.7% vs market 20.1% (-3.4 points)Last Glory-3.4Lipan Law: model 16.4% vs market 16.1% (+0.3 points)Lipan Law+0.3Rumint: model 14.3% vs market 11.5% (+2.8 points)Rumint+2.8Moontown: model 9.6% vs market 11.5% (-1.8 points)Moontown-1.8Apollonia Vitelli: model 7.9% vs market 8.9% (-1.1 points)Apollonia Vitelli-1.1Rubys Mission: model 2.4% vs market 5.0% (-2.6 points)Rubys Mission-2.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Our Preferred Pal32.6%26.8%+5.8
Last Glory16.7%20.1%-3.4
Lipan Law16.4%16.1%+0.3
Rumint14.3%11.5%+2.8
Moontown9.6%11.5%-1.8
Apollonia Vitelli7.9%8.9%-1.1
Rubys Mission2.4%5.0%-2.6
🌧️ Off-track: 431267
🎯 Longshots: 4731265
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,700
Win:9Successful Agenda (5/2) 41% · fair 3-2 overlay +77%
Place:1Wayward Queen (3/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Show:4Flying Phoebe (4/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -41%
Other contenders:2Maize Loved Laffy (6/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -58%, 3Lucky And Gorgeous (10/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -31%, 5Volamo (8/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -57%
Rest of field:7Bounty Killah (20/1) 2% · fair 101-2 underlay -60%, 8Outta The Cloud (20/1) 2% · fair 119-2 underlay -67%, 6Stella Brown (20/1) 1% · fair 105-1 underlay -81%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Successful Agenda — 41.4% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Successful Agenda41.4% ◀Wayward Queen — 23.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Wayward Queen23.0%Flying Phoebe — 12.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Flying Phoebe12.8%Maize Loved Laffy — 6.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Maize Loved Laffy6.6%Lucky And Gorgeous — 6.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Lucky And Gorgeous6.5%Volamo — 5.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Volamo5.1%Bounty Killah — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Bounty Killah1.9%Outta The Cloud — 1.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Outta The Cloud1.6%Stella Brown — 0.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Stella Brown0.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Successful Agenda41.4%2.5/1
Wayward Queen23.0%3/1
Flying Phoebe12.8%4/1
Maize Loved Laffy6.6%6/1
Lucky And Gorgeous6.5%10/1
Volamo5.1%8/1
Bounty Killah1.9%20/1
Outta The Cloud1.6%20/1
Stella Brown0.9%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSuccessful Agenda: model 41.4% vs market 23.4% (+18.1 points)Successful Agenda+18.1Wayward Queen: model 23.0% vs market 20.4% (+2.6 points)Wayward Queen+2.6Flying Phoebe: model 12.8% vs market 16.3% (-3.5 points)Flying Phoebe-3.5Maize Loved Laffy: model 6.6% vs market 11.7% (-5.1 points)Maize Loved Laffy-5.1Lucky And Gorgeous: model 6.5% vs market 7.4% (-1.0 points)Lucky And Gorgeous-1.0Volamo: model 5.1% vs market 9.1% (-4.0 points)Volamo-4.0Bounty Killah: model 1.9% vs market 3.9% (-1.9 points)Bounty Killah-1.9Outta The Cloud: model 1.6% vs market 3.9% (-2.2 points)Outta The Cloud-2.2Stella Brown: model 0.9% vs market 3.9% (-2.9 points)Stella Brown-2.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Successful Agenda41.4%23.4%+18.1
Wayward Queen23.0%20.4%+2.6
Flying Phoebe12.8%16.3%-3.5
Maize Loved Laffy6.6%11.7%-5.1
Lucky And Gorgeous6.5%7.4%-1.0
Volamo5.1%9.1%-4.0
Bounty Killah1.9%3.9%-1.9
Outta The Cloud1.6%3.9%-2.2
Stella Brown0.9%3.9%-2.9
🌧️ Off-track: 914253
🎯 Longshots: 953147286
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #1, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,500
Win:5Serra (6/5)
Place:2Rumblyoungmanrumbl (5/2)
Show:3By Mink Standards (7/2)
Other contenders:4Magic Beach (8/1), 1Call Saul (10/1)
Rest of field:6Jake's Orchard (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 523416
🎯 Longshots: 542631
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $17,000
Win:2Solo Belle (5/2)
Place:4Tiz's Cupcake (2/1)
Show:3Lady On The Lam (7/2)
Other contenders:1Nice Try Cat (5/1), 5Winning Rose (8/1)
Rest of field:6Turbo Gray (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 243156
🎯 Longshots: 423156
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:3Foxy Cara (8/5)
Place:1Beauty's Bangle (5/2)
Show:2Bayou Melody (4/1)
Other contenders:6Bustinroxy (5/1), 4Sweet Tooth Sue (10/1)
Rest of field:5In Traffic (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 312645
🎯 Longshots: 314256
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,800
Win:1Bad Joke (7/2)
Place:4Last Drink (2/1)
Show:5Montauk Surf (5/2)
Other contenders:3Disco Dancer (6/1), 6Burning Munny (10/1)
Rest of field:7Dignified Response (12/1), 2Not My Type (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 415367
🎯 Longshots: 4156237
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,800
Win:4Motown Omi (3/1)
Place:7Big Advantage (7/2)
Show:2Nurse Bunny (4/1)
Other contenders:5Moonlit Weekend (8/1), 9Lollipops (12/1), 6Ring Of The Rise (6/1)
Rest of field:8Classiwest (20/1), 3Heavens Lee (6/1), 1Cue The Music (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 472563
🎯 Longshots: 498572136
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $32,600
Win:6Mr Rigatoni (4/1)
Place:4Bajan Sugar (5/2)
Show:3Locked Horns (3/1)
Other contenders:2Follow The Prints (6/1), 1Johnny Castle (5/1)
Rest of field:5Mindyourmanners (6/1), 7Partners N Crime (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 436125
🎯 Longshots: 4315627
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $24,500
Win:4Our Preferred Pal (2/1)
Place:1Lipan Law (4/1)
Show:2Rumint (6/1)
Other contenders:3Last Glory (3/1), 6Moontown (6/1)
Rest of field:7Apollonia Vitelli (8/1), 5Rubys Mission (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 431267
🎯 Longshots: 4731265
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,700
Win:9Successful Agenda (5/2)
Place:2Maize Loved Laffy (6/1)
Show:1Wayward Queen (3/1)
Other contenders:4Flying Phoebe (4/1), 5Volamo (8/1), 3Lucky And Gorgeous (10/1)
Rest of field:7Bounty Killah (20/1), 8Outta The Cloud (20/1), 6Stella Brown (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 912453
🎯 Longshots: 953147286
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #2, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #5 over #2 ($1 straight; box #5-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #4 over #2 ($1 straight; box #4-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #2, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #3 over #1 ($1 straight; box #3-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #3, #6, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #4 over #1 ($1 straight; box #4-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #1, #5, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #4 over #7 ($1 straight; box #4-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #4, #2, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #4 over #3 ($1 straight; box #4-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #3, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #4 over #3 ($1 straight; box #4-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #3, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #9 over #1 ($1 straight; box #9-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #9 over #1, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.41 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
58Classiwest ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer20/1—5.4%+15.6%0.20%$0.20
TOTAL across 1 play:0.2%$0.20
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,500
Win:5Serra (6/5)
Place:2Rumblyoungmanrumbl (5/2)
Show:4Magic Beach (8/1)
Other contenders:3By Mink Standards (7/2), 6Jake's Orchard (15/1)
Rest of field:1Call Saul (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 523416
🎯 Longshots: 542631
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $17,000
Win:4Tiz's Cupcake (2/1)
Place:2Solo Belle (5/2)
Show:1Nice Try Cat (5/1)
Other contenders:3Lady On The Lam (7/2), 5Winning Rose (8/1)
Rest of field:6Turbo Gray (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 423156
🎯 Longshots: 423156
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:1Beauty's Bangle (5/2)
Place:3Foxy Cara (8/5)
Show:6Bustinroxy (5/1)
Other contenders:2Bayou Melody (4/1), 4Sweet Tooth Sue (10/1)
Rest of field:5In Traffic (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 312645
🎯 Longshots: 314256
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,800
Win:4Last Drink (2/1)
Place:1Bad Joke (7/2)
Show:5Montauk Surf (5/2)
Other contenders:3Disco Dancer (6/1), 6Burning Munny (10/1)
Rest of field:7Dignified Response (12/1), 2Not My Type (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 451367
🎯 Longshots: 4156237
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,800
Win:4Motown Omi (3/1)
Place:7Big Advantage (7/2)
Show:2Nurse Bunny (4/1)
Other contenders:5Moonlit Weekend (8/1), 8Classiwest (20/1), 9Lollipops (12/1)
Rest of field:3Heavens Lee (6/1), 1Cue The Music (15/1), 6Ring Of The Rise (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 472536
🎯 Longshots: 498572136
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $32,600
Win:6Mr Rigatoni (4/1)
Place:4Bajan Sugar (5/2)
Show:1Johnny Castle (5/1)
Other contenders:3Locked Horns (3/1), 5Mindyourmanners (6/1)
Rest of field:2Follow The Prints (6/1), 7Partners N Crime (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 463152
🎯 Longshots: 4315627
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $24,500
Win:4Our Preferred Pal (2/1)
Place:1Lipan Law (4/1)
Show:3Last Glory (3/1)
Other contenders:2Rumint (6/1), 6Moontown (6/1)
Rest of field:7Apollonia Vitelli (8/1), 5Rubys Mission (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 431267
🎯 Longshots: 4731265
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,700
Win:9Successful Agenda (5/2)
Place:2Maize Loved Laffy (6/1)
Show:4Flying Phoebe (4/1)
Other contenders:1Wayward Queen (3/1), 5Volamo (8/1), 3Lucky And Gorgeous (10/1)
Rest of field:7Bounty Killah (20/1), 8Outta The Cloud (20/1), 6Stella Brown (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 914253
🎯 Longshots: 953147286
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #2, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,500
Win:5Serra (6/5)
Place:2Rumblyoungmanrumbl (5/2)
Show:3By Mink Standards (7/2)
Other contenders:4Magic Beach (8/1), 6Jake's Orchard (15/1)
Rest of field:1Call Saul (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 523416
🎯 Longshots: 542631
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $17,000
Win:4Tiz's Cupcake (2/1)
Place:2Solo Belle (5/2)
Show:3Lady On The Lam (7/2)
Other contenders:1Nice Try Cat (5/1), 5Winning Rose (8/1)
Rest of field:6Turbo Gray (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 423156
🎯 Longshots: 423156
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:1Beauty's Bangle (5/2)
Place:3Foxy Cara (8/5)
Show:6Bustinroxy (5/1)
Other contenders:2Bayou Melody (4/1), 4Sweet Tooth Sue (10/1)
Rest of field:5In Traffic (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 312645
🎯 Longshots: 314256
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,800
Win:4Last Drink (2/1)
Place:1Bad Joke (7/2)
Show:5Montauk Surf (5/2)
Other contenders:3Disco Dancer (6/1), 6Burning Munny (10/1)
Rest of field:7Dignified Response (12/1), 2Not My Type (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 451367
🎯 Longshots: 4156237
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,800
Win:7Big Advantage (7/2)
Place:4Motown Omi (3/1)
Show:2Nurse Bunny (4/1)
Other contenders:6Ring Of The Rise (6/1), 5Moonlit Weekend (8/1), 9Lollipops (12/1)
Rest of field:3Heavens Lee (6/1), 8Classiwest (20/1), 1Cue The Music (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 472635
🎯 Longshots: 498572136
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $32,600
Win:4Bajan Sugar (5/2)
Place:3Locked Horns (3/1)
Show:6Mr Rigatoni (4/1)
Other contenders:1Johnny Castle (5/1), 2Follow The Prints (6/1)
Rest of field:5Mindyourmanners (6/1), 7Partners N Crime (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 436125
🎯 Longshots: 4315627
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $24,500
Win:4Our Preferred Pal (2/1)
Place:3Last Glory (3/1)
Show:1Lipan Law (4/1)
Other contenders:2Rumint (6/1), 6Moontown (6/1)
Rest of field:7Apollonia Vitelli (8/1), 5Rubys Mission (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 431267
🎯 Longshots: 4731265
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,700
Win:9Successful Agenda (5/2)
Place:1Wayward Queen (3/1)
Show:4Flying Phoebe (4/1)
Other contenders:2Maize Loved Laffy (6/1), 5Volamo (8/1), 3Lucky And Gorgeous (10/1)
Rest of field:7Bounty Killah (20/1), 8Outta The Cloud (20/1), 6Stella Brown (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 914253
🎯 Longshots: 953147286
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #1, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #5,#2 (62%) / R2: #4,#2 (63%) / R3: #3,#1,#2 (79%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 31%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #4,#2 (63%) / R3: #3,#1,#2 (79%) / R4: #4,#1,#5 (77%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 38%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #3,#1,#2 (79%) / R4: #4,#1,#5 (77%) / R5: #7,#4,#2 (60%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 36%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #4,#3,#1 (65%) / R7: #4,#3,#1 (66%) / R8: #9,#1 (64%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 28%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #5,#2 (62%) / R2: #4,#2 (63%) / R3: #3,#1,#2 (79%) / R4: #4,#1,#5 (77%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 24%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #4,#2 (63%) / R3: #3,#1,#2 (79%) / R4: #4,#1,#5 (77%) / R5: #7,#4,#2 (60%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
APOLLONIA VITELLIBAD JOKEBAJAN SUGARBAYOU MELODYBEAUTY'S BANGLE
BOUNTY KILLAHBURNING MUNNYBUSTINROXYBY MINK STANDARDSCALL SAUL
CUE THE MUSICDIGNIFIED RESPONSEDISCO DANCERFLYING PHOEBEFOLLOW THE PRINTS
HEAVENS LEEIN TRAFFICJAKE'S ORCHARDJOHNNY CASTLELADY ON THE LAM
LAST GLORYLIPAN LAWLOCKED HORNSLOLLIPOPSLUCKY AND GORGEOUS
MAIZE LOVED LAFFYMINDYOURMANNERSMONTAUK SURFMOONLIT WEEKENDMOONTOWN
MR RIGATONINICE TRY CATNOT MY TYPENURSE BUNNYOUR PREFERRED PAL
PARTNERS N CRIMERING OF THE RISERUBYS MISSIONRUMBLYOUNGMANRUMBLRUMINT
SOLO BELLESTELLA BROWNSUCCESSFUL AGENDASWEET TOOTH SUETIZ'S CUPCAKE
VOLAMOWAYWARD QUEENWINNING ROSE

 


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