Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Finger Lakes Racetrack, October 27, 2026

How did these picks do?

Results for this card as of 8:19 AM, graded from the official charts. Each row is that section's top pick in every race with a result; races still pending are not counted. The full week is in the weekly recap.

SectionRaces gradedWon2nd3rdWin %
Algo 1842250%
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)841350%
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)841150%
Experimental Weight Set 2842150%
Experimental Weight Set 3851262%


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Finger Lakes Racetrack — in-the-money rate

How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 231 graded races at Finger Lakes Racetrack, 2026-08-18 to 2026-10-26.

0%24%48%71%95%Our top pick: 76.2% from 231 racesOur top pick76.2%Morning-line favourite: 73.6% from 231 racesMorning-line favourite73.6%

In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick76.2%231
Morning-line favourite73.6%231
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $24,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7Free Dance (8/5)
Place:3Beach Invasion (5/2)
Show:1Maturation (4/1)
Other contenders:4Janssen (8/1), 5Shortsinthewinter (10/1)
Rest of field:6Aelfgar (12/1), 2Eric From Miami (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 731456
🎯 Longshots: 7354612
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $17,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Froghollowsummer (5/2)
Place:5Lively Pal (3/1)
Show:4Gattatiz (7/2)
Other contenders:1She's A Goddess (4/1), 3Klum (5/1)
Rest of field:6Southern Trouble (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 254136
🎯 Longshots: 451236
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,200
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3My Royal Vow (2/1)
Place:2Only In My Dreams (7/2)
Show:6Hypnocurrency (5/2)
Other contenders:1Peggy Rules (4/1), 4Honey In The Bank (12/1)
Rest of field:5Hazard Pay (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 362145
🎯 Longshots: 326145
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,800
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Celtic Prince (5/2)
Place:3Percy (4/1)
Show:6Notfanutin (7/2)
Other contenders:5Grand Warrior (5/1), 7The Brown Egg (6/1)
Rest of field:1Bolt To Run (10/1), 2Renaissance Man (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 436571
🎯 Longshots: 4613257
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Breaking Stones (3/1)
Place:9Three Little Birds (7/2)
Show:2Double Shot (4/1)
Other contenders:1Heads Or Tails (8/1), 8Profitability (6/1), 6Winston D (6/1)
Rest of field:5Allure Of Money (12/1), 7Mister J T (12/1), 4Post Facto (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 392186
🎯 Longshots: 319527846
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,800
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Red Burgundy (3/1)
Place:1Hidden Vase (4/1)
Show:4Lovely Pashyn (7/2)
Other contenders:7Cararra (6/1), 2Dancin Jane (5/1), 8World Bank (8/1)
Rest of field:5Diptique (12/1), 6Classiwest (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 341728
🎯 Longshots: 34817562
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,900
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Hey Pal (3/1)
Place:4Isola D'oro (7/2)
Show:2Gray Haired Gus (4/1)
Other contenders:6Trew Violence (6/1), 1Muscle Shoals (9/2), 5Take The Gold (6/1)
Rest of field:7Fiscal Drag (15/1), 3Ducky Medwick (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 842615
🎯 Longshots: 86427153
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Cinnamon Sugar (2/1)
Place:3Blue Eyed Scout (5/2)
Show:4Thin Legs (7/2)
Other contenders:1Grand Lady Indy (5/1), 5Kaymus (8/1)
Rest of field:7Tumbles (15/1), 2Numeric (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 634157
🎯 Longshots: 6354172
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Finger Lakes Racetrack — average winning payout

What a $2 win bet returned WHEN THE PICK WON. 171 graded races at Finger Lakes Racetrack, 2026-09-07 to 2026-10-26.

$0$2$3$5$6Our top pick: $5.20 from 60 racesOur top pick$5.20Morning-line favourite: $4.59 from 60 racesMorning-line favourite$4.59

This is the size of a winning payout, not a measure of profit — a pick that wins less often at a longer price can average more per winner and still lose money over the month. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupAverage payoutWinners
Our top pick$5.2060
Morning-line favourite$4.5960
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $24,500
Win:7Free Dance (8/5) 34% · fair 2-1
Place:3Beach Invasion (5/2) 27% · fair 5-2
Show:1Maturation (4/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:5Shortsinthewinter (10/1) 7% · fair 13-1, 4Janssen (8/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -54%
Rest of field:2Eric From Miami (12/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -64%, 6Aelfgar (12/1) 3% · fair 73-2 underlay -67%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Free Dance — 34.3% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Free Dance34.3% ◀Beach Invasion — 27.1% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Beach Invasion27.1%Maturation — 20.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Maturation20.4%Shortsinthewinter — 7.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Shortsinthewinter7.2%Janssen — 5.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Janssen5.4%Eric From Miami — 2.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Eric From Miami2.9%Aelfgar — 2.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Aelfgar2.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Free Dance34.3%1.6/1
Beach Invasion27.1%2.5/1
Maturation20.4%4/1
Shortsinthewinter7.2%10/1
Janssen5.4%8/1
Eric From Miami2.9%12/1
Aelfgar2.7%12/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherFree Dance: model 34.3% vs market 31.4% (+2.9 points)Free Dance+2.9Beach Invasion: model 27.1% vs market 23.3% (+3.8 points)Beach Invasion+3.8Maturation: model 20.4% vs market 16.3% (+4.1 points)Maturation+4.1Shortsinthewinter: model 7.2% vs market 7.4% (-0.2 points)Shortsinthewinter-0.2Janssen: model 5.4% vs market 9.1% (-3.6 points)Janssen-3.6Eric From Miami: model 2.9% vs market 6.3% (-3.3 points)Eric From Miami-3.3Aelfgar: model 2.7% vs market 6.3% (-3.6 points)Aelfgar-3.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Free Dance34.3%31.4%+2.9
Beach Invasion27.1%23.3%+3.8
Maturation20.4%16.3%+4.1
Shortsinthewinter7.2%7.4%-0.2
Janssen5.4%9.1%-3.6
Eric From Miami2.9%6.3%-3.3
Aelfgar2.7%6.3%-3.6
🌧️ Off-track: 731452
🎯 Longshots: 7354612
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $17,000
Win:2Froghollowsummer (5/2) 24% · fair 3-1
Place:4Gattatiz (7/2) 24% · fair 3-1
Show:5Lively Pal (3/1) 21% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:1She's A Goddess (4/1) 19% · fair 4-1, 3Klum (5/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -50%
Rest of field:6Southern Trouble (20/1) 3% · fair 75-2 underlay -47%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Froghollowsummer — 24.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Froghollowsummer24.3% ◀Gattatiz — 23.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Gattatiz23.7%Lively Pal — 20.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Lively Pal20.8%She'S A Goddess — 19.4% win probability, morning line 4/1She'S A Goddess19.4%Klum — 9.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Klum9.1%Southern Trouble — 2.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Southern Trouble2.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Froghollowsummer24.3%2.5/1
Gattatiz23.7%3.5/1
Lively Pal20.8%3/1
She'S A Goddess19.4%4/1
Klum9.1%5/1
Southern Trouble2.6%20/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherFroghollowsummer: model 24.3% vs market 24.4% (-0.1 points)Froghollowsummer-0.1Gattatiz: model 23.7% vs market 19.0% (+4.8 points)Gattatiz+4.8Lively Pal: model 20.8% vs market 21.3% (-0.5 points)Lively Pal-0.5She'S A Goddess: model 19.4% vs market 17.1% (+2.4 points)She'S A Goddess+2.4Klum: model 9.1% vs market 14.2% (-5.1 points)Klum-5.1Southern Trouble: model 2.6% vs market 4.1% (-1.5 points)Southern Trouble-1.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Froghollowsummer24.3%24.4%-0.1
Gattatiz23.7%19.0%+4.8
Lively Pal20.8%21.3%-0.5
She'S A Goddess19.4%17.1%+2.4
Klum9.1%14.2%-5.1
Southern Trouble2.6%4.1%-1.5
🌧️ Off-track: 245136
🎯 Longshots: 451236
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,200
Win:3My Royal Vow (2/1) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:2Only In My Dreams (7/2) 29% · fair 5-2 overlay +41%
Show:6Hypnocurrency (5/2) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -42%
Other contenders:1Peggy Rules (4/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -26%, 4Honey In The Bank (12/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -29%
Rest of field:5Hazard Pay (15/1) 2% · fair 63-1 underlay -76%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

My Royal Vow — 29.5% win probability, morning line 2/1My Royal Vow29.5% ◀Only In My Dreams — 28.8% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Only In My Dreams28.8%Hypnocurrency — 19.0% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Hypnocurrency19.0%Peggy Rules — 15.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Peggy Rules15.6%Honey In The Bank — 5.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Honey In The Bank5.6%Hazard Pay — 1.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Hazard Pay1.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
My Royal Vow29.5%2/1
Only In My Dreams28.8%3.5/1
Hypnocurrency19.0%2.5/1
Peggy Rules15.6%4/1
Honey In The Bank5.6%12/1
Hazard Pay1.6%15/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMy Royal Vow: model 29.5% vs market 28.2% (+1.3 points)My Royal Vow+1.3Only In My Dreams: model 28.8% vs market 18.8% (+10.0 points)Only In My Dreams+10.0Hypnocurrency: model 19.0% vs market 24.2% (-5.2 points)Hypnocurrency-5.2Peggy Rules: model 15.6% vs market 16.9% (-1.4 points)Peggy Rules-1.4Honey In The Bank: model 5.6% vs market 6.5% (-0.9 points)Honey In The Bank-0.9Hazard Pay: model 1.6% vs market 5.3% (-3.7 points)Hazard Pay-3.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
My Royal Vow29.5%28.2%+1.3
Only In My Dreams28.8%18.8%+10.0
Hypnocurrency19.0%24.2%-5.2
Peggy Rules15.6%16.9%-1.4
Honey In The Bank5.6%6.5%-0.9
Hazard Pay1.6%5.3%-3.7
🌧️ Off-track: 326145
🎯 Longshots: 326145
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,800
Win:3Percy (4/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Place:4Celtic Prince (5/2) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -31%
Show:6Notfanutin (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:7The Brown Egg (6/1) 14% · fair 13-2, 5Grand Warrior (5/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -43%
Rest of field:1Bolt To Run (10/1) 7% · fair 25-2, 2Renaissance Man (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -42%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Percy — 22.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Percy22.6% ◀Celtic Prince — 21.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Celtic Prince21.6%Notfanutin — 17.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Notfanutin17.7%The Brown Egg — 13.8% win probability, morning line 6/1The Brown Egg13.8%Grand Warrior — 10.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Grand Warrior10.2%Bolt To Run — 7.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Bolt To Run7.3%Renaissance Man — 6.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Renaissance Man6.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Percy22.6%4/1
Celtic Prince21.6%2.5/1
Notfanutin17.7%3.5/1
The Brown Egg13.8%6/1
Grand Warrior10.2%5/1
Bolt To Run7.3%10/1
Renaissance Man6.8%8/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherPercy: model 22.6% vs market 16.4% (+6.2 points)Percy+6.2Celtic Prince: model 21.6% vs market 23.4% (-1.8 points)Celtic Prince-1.8Notfanutin: model 17.7% vs market 18.2% (-0.5 points)Notfanutin-0.5The Brown Egg: model 13.8% vs market 11.7% (+2.1 points)The Brown Egg+2.1Grand Warrior: model 10.2% vs market 13.7% (-3.5 points)Grand Warrior-3.5Bolt To Run: model 7.3% vs market 7.5% (-0.1 points)Bolt To Run-0.1Renaissance Man: model 6.8% vs market 9.1% (-2.3 points)Renaissance Man-2.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Percy22.6%16.4%+6.2
Celtic Prince21.6%23.4%-1.8
Notfanutin17.7%18.2%-0.5
The Brown Egg13.8%11.7%+2.1
Grand Warrior10.2%13.7%-3.5
Bolt To Run7.3%7.5%-0.1
Renaissance Man6.8%9.1%-2.3
🌧️ Off-track: 436752
🎯 Longshots: 4613257
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:3Breaking Stones (3/1) 24% · fair 3-1
Place:9Three Little Birds (7/2) 23% · fair 7-2
Show:2Double Shot (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -30%
Other contenders:8Profitability (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -33%, 1Heads Or Tails (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 6Winston D (6/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -49%
Rest of field:5Allure Of Money (12/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -44%, 7Mister J T (12/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -47%, 4Post Facto (15/1) 3% · fair 36-1 underlay -58%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Breaking Stones — 24.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Breaking Stones24.0% ◀Three Little Birds — 22.8% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Three Little Birds22.8%Double Shot — 14.9% win probability, morning line 4/1Double Shot14.9%Profitability — 10.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Profitability10.0%Heads Or Tails — 9.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Heads Or Tails9.1%Winston D — 7.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Winston D7.8%Allure Of Money — 4.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Allure Of Money4.4%Mister J T — 4.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Mister J T4.3%Post Facto — 2.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Post Facto2.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Breaking Stones24.0%3/1
Three Little Birds22.8%3.5/1
Double Shot14.9%4/1
Profitability10.0%6/1
Heads Or Tails9.1%8/1
Winston D7.8%6/1
Allure Of Money4.4%12/1
Mister J T4.3%12/1
Post Facto2.7%15/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBreaking Stones: model 24.0% vs market 19.4% (+4.6 points)Breaking Stones+4.6Three Little Birds: model 22.8% vs market 17.3% (+5.5 points)Three Little Birds+5.5Double Shot: model 14.9% vs market 15.6% (-0.6 points)Double Shot-0.6Profitability: model 10.0% vs market 11.1% (-1.1 points)Profitability-1.1Heads Or Tails: model 9.1% vs market 8.6% (+0.4 points)Heads Or Tails+0.4Winston D: model 7.8% vs market 11.1% (-3.3 points)Winston D-3.3Allure Of Money: model 4.4% vs market 6.0% (-1.6 points)Allure Of Money-1.6Mister J T: model 4.3% vs market 6.0% (-1.7 points)Mister J T-1.7Post Facto: model 2.7% vs market 4.9% (-2.2 points)Post Facto-2.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Breaking Stones24.0%19.4%+4.6
Three Little Birds22.8%17.3%+5.5
Double Shot14.9%15.6%-0.6
Profitability10.0%11.1%-1.1
Heads Or Tails9.1%8.6%+0.4
Winston D7.8%11.1%-3.3
Allure Of Money4.4%6.0%-1.6
Mister J T4.3%6.0%-1.7
Post Facto2.7%4.9%-2.2
🌧️ Off-track: 392861
🎯 Longshots: 319527846
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #2, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,800
Win:4Lovely Pashyn (7/2) 22% · fair 7-2
Place:1Hidden Vase (4/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:7Cararra (6/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:2Dancin Jane (5/1) 14% · fair 13-2, 3Red Burgundy (3/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -55%, 8World Bank (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -27%
Rest of field:5Diptique (12/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -54%, 6Classiwest (20/1) 2% · fair 115-2 underlay -65%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Lovely Pashyn — 22.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Lovely Pashyn22.1% ◀Hidden Vase — 20.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Hidden Vase20.4%Cararra — 17.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Cararra17.1%Dancin Jane — 13.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Dancin Jane13.5%Red Burgundy — 13.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Red Burgundy13.2%World Bank — 8.3% win probability, morning line 8/1World Bank8.3%Diptique — 3.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Diptique3.7%Classiwest — 1.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Classiwest1.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Lovely Pashyn22.1%3.5/1
Hidden Vase20.4%4/1
Cararra17.1%6/1
Dancin Jane13.5%5/1
Red Burgundy13.2%3/1
World Bank8.3%8/1
Diptique3.7%12/1
Classiwest1.7%20/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherLovely Pashyn: model 22.1% vs market 18.3% (+3.9 points)Lovely Pashyn+3.9Hidden Vase: model 20.4% vs market 16.4% (+4.0 points)Hidden Vase+4.0Cararra: model 17.1% vs market 11.7% (+5.3 points)Cararra+5.3Dancin Jane: model 13.5% vs market 13.7% (-0.2 points)Dancin Jane-0.2Red Burgundy: model 13.2% vs market 20.5% (-7.4 points)Red Burgundy-7.4World Bank: model 8.3% vs market 9.1% (-0.8 points)World Bank-0.8Diptique: model 3.7% vs market 6.3% (-2.7 points)Diptique-2.7Classiwest: model 1.7% vs market 3.9% (-2.2 points)Classiwest-2.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Lovely Pashyn22.1%18.3%+3.9
Hidden Vase20.4%16.4%+4.0
Cararra17.1%11.7%+5.3
Dancin Jane13.5%13.7%-0.2
Red Burgundy13.2%20.5%-7.4
World Bank8.3%9.1%-0.8
Diptique3.7%6.3%-2.7
Classiwest1.7%3.9%-2.2
🌧️ Off-track: 413728
🎯 Longshots: 34817562
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,900
Win:8Hey Pal (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -27%
Place:4Isola D'oro (7/2) 19% · fair 9-2
Show:2Gray Haired Gus (4/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:6Trew Violence (6/1) 17% · fair 5-1, 1Muscle Shoals (9/2) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -49%, 5Take The Gold (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -33%
Rest of field:7Fiscal Drag (15/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -33%, 3Ducky Medwick (12/1) 3% · fair 67-2 underlay -64%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Hey Pal — 19.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Hey Pal19.6% ◀Isola D'Oro — 18.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Isola D'Oro18.6%Gray Haired Gus — 17.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Gray Haired Gus17.3%Trew Violence — 17.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Trew Violence17.1%Muscle Shoals — 10.2% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Muscle Shoals10.2%Take The Gold — 10.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Take The Gold10.0%Fiscal Drag — 4.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Fiscal Drag4.3%Ducky Medwick — 2.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Ducky Medwick2.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Hey Pal19.6%3/1
Isola D'Oro18.6%3.5/1
Gray Haired Gus17.3%4/1
Trew Violence17.1%6/1
Muscle Shoals10.2%4.5/1
Take The Gold10.0%6/1
Fiscal Drag4.3%15/1
Ducky Medwick2.9%12/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHey Pal: model 19.6% vs market 19.5% (+0.0 points)Hey Pal+0.0Isola D'Oro: model 18.6% vs market 17.4% (+1.2 points)Isola D'Oro+1.2Gray Haired Gus: model 17.3% vs market 15.6% (+1.6 points)Gray Haired Gus+1.6Trew Violence: model 17.1% vs market 11.2% (+6.0 points)Trew Violence+6.0Muscle Shoals: model 10.2% vs market 14.2% (-4.0 points)Muscle Shoals-4.0Take The Gold: model 10.0% vs market 11.2% (-1.1 points)Take The Gold-1.1Fiscal Drag: model 4.3% vs market 4.9% (-0.6 points)Fiscal Drag-0.6Ducky Medwick: model 2.9% vs market 6.0% (-3.1 points)Ducky Medwick-3.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Hey Pal19.6%19.5%+0.0
Isola D'Oro18.6%17.4%+1.2
Gray Haired Gus17.3%15.6%+1.6
Trew Violence17.1%11.2%+6.0
Muscle Shoals10.2%14.2%-4.0
Take The Gold10.0%11.2%-1.1
Fiscal Drag4.3%4.9%-0.6
Ducky Medwick2.9%6.0%-3.1
🌧️ Off-track: 842615
🎯 Longshots: 86427153
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:6Cinnamon Sugar (2/1) 42% · fair 3-2 overlay +48%
Place:3Blue Eyed Scout (5/2) 24% · fair 3-1
Show:4Thin Legs (7/2) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -44%
Other contenders:1Grand Lady Indy (5/1) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -48%, 5Kaymus (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -34%
Rest of field:7Tumbles (15/1) 2% · fair 49-1 underlay -69%, 2Numeric (20/1) 1% · fair 85-1 underlay -76%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Cinnamon Sugar — 42.5% win probability, morning line 2/1Cinnamon Sugar42.5% ◀Blue Eyed Scout — 23.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Blue Eyed Scout23.6%Thin Legs — 13.8% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Thin Legs13.8%Grand Lady Indy — 9.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Grand Lady Indy9.4%Kaymus — 7.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Kaymus7.6%Tumbles — 2.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Tumbles2.0%Numeric — 1.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Numeric1.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Cinnamon Sugar42.5%2/1
Blue Eyed Scout23.6%2.5/1
Thin Legs13.8%3.5/1
Grand Lady Indy9.4%5/1
Kaymus7.6%8/1
Tumbles2.0%15/1
Numeric1.2%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCinnamon Sugar: model 42.5% vs market 27.1% (+15.4 points)Cinnamon Sugar+15.4Blue Eyed Scout: model 23.6% vs market 23.2% (+0.3 points)Blue Eyed Scout+0.3Thin Legs: model 13.8% vs market 18.1% (-4.3 points)Thin Legs-4.3Grand Lady Indy: model 9.4% vs market 13.6% (-4.1 points)Grand Lady Indy-4.1Kaymus: model 7.6% vs market 9.0% (-1.5 points)Kaymus-1.5Tumbles: model 2.0% vs market 5.1% (-3.1 points)Tumbles-3.1Numeric: model 1.2% vs market 3.9% (-2.7 points)Numeric-2.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Cinnamon Sugar42.5%27.1%+15.4
Blue Eyed Scout23.6%23.2%+0.3
Thin Legs13.8%18.1%-4.3
Grand Lady Indy9.4%13.6%-4.1
Kaymus7.6%9.0%-1.5
Tumbles2.0%5.1%-3.1
Numeric1.2%3.9%-2.7
🌧️ Off-track: 634157
🎯 Longshots: 6354172
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $24,500
Win:7Free Dance (8/5)
Place:3Beach Invasion (5/2)
Show:1Maturation (4/1)
Other contenders:5Shortsinthewinter (10/1), 4Janssen (8/1)
Rest of field:6Aelfgar (12/1), 2Eric From Miami (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 731456
🎯 Longshots: 7354612
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $17,000
Win:4Gattatiz (7/2)
Place:5Lively Pal (3/1)
Show:2Froghollowsummer (5/2)
Other contenders:1She's A Goddess (4/1), 3Klum (5/1)
Rest of field:6Southern Trouble (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 524136
🎯 Longshots: 451236
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,200
Win:3My Royal Vow (2/1)
Place:2Only In My Dreams (7/2)
Show:6Hypnocurrency (5/2)
Other contenders:1Peggy Rules (4/1), 4Honey In The Bank (12/1)
Rest of field:5Hazard Pay (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 362145
🎯 Longshots: 326145
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,800
Win:4Celtic Prince (5/2)
Place:6Notfanutin (7/2)
Show:3Percy (4/1)
Other contenders:5Grand Warrior (5/1), 7The Brown Egg (6/1)
Rest of field:2Renaissance Man (8/1), 1Bolt To Run (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 463572
🎯 Longshots: 4613257
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:3Breaking Stones (3/1)
Place:9Three Little Birds (7/2)
Show:1Heads Or Tails (8/1)
Other contenders:2Double Shot (4/1), 8Profitability (6/1), 7Mister J T (12/1)
Rest of field:5Allure Of Money (12/1), 6Winston D (6/1), 4Post Facto (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 392816
🎯 Longshots: 319527846
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,800
Win:3Red Burgundy (3/1)
Place:4Lovely Pashyn (7/2)
Show:1Hidden Vase (4/1)
Other contenders:7Cararra (6/1), 2Dancin Jane (5/1), 8World Bank (8/1)
Rest of field:5Diptique (12/1), 6Classiwest (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 341278
🎯 Longshots: 34817562
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,900
Win:8Hey Pal (3/1)
Place:6Trew Violence (6/1)
Show:4Isola D'oro (7/2)
Other contenders:1Muscle Shoals (9/2), 2Gray Haired Gus (4/1), 5Take The Gold (6/1)
Rest of field:3Ducky Medwick (12/1), 7Fiscal Drag (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 842165
🎯 Longshots: 86427153
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #6, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:6Cinnamon Sugar (2/1)
Place:3Blue Eyed Scout (5/2)
Show:1Grand Lady Indy (5/1)
Other contenders:4Thin Legs (7/2), 5Kaymus (8/1)
Rest of field:7Tumbles (15/1), 2Numeric (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 634157
🎯 Longshots: 6354172
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #7 over #3 ($1 straight; box #7-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #3, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #2 over #5 ($1 straight; box #2-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #2, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #3 over #2 ($1 straight; box #3-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #2, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #4 over #6 ($1 straight; box #4-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #6, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #3 over #9 ($1 straight; box #3-#9 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #9, #8, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #4 over #3 ($1 straight; box #4-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #4, #1, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #8 over #4 ($1 straight; box #8-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #1, #4, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #6 over #3 ($1 straight; box #6-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #4, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $24,500
Win:3Beach Invasion (5/2)
Place:7Free Dance (8/5)
Show:1Maturation (4/1)
Other contenders:5Shortsinthewinter (10/1), 4Janssen (8/1)
Rest of field:6Aelfgar (12/1), 2Eric From Miami (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 731546
🎯 Longshots: 7354612
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $17,000
Win:4Gattatiz (7/2)
Place:5Lively Pal (3/1)
Show:1She's A Goddess (4/1)
Other contenders:2Froghollowsummer (5/2), 3Klum (5/1)
Rest of field:6Southern Trouble (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 542136
🎯 Longshots: 451236
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,200
Win:2Only In My Dreams (7/2)
Place:3My Royal Vow (2/1)
Show:6Hypnocurrency (5/2)
Other contenders:1Peggy Rules (4/1), 4Honey In The Bank (12/1)
Rest of field:5Hazard Pay (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 326145
🎯 Longshots: 326145
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,800
Win:6Notfanutin (7/2)
Place:4Celtic Prince (5/2)
Show:5Grand Warrior (5/1)
Other contenders:1Bolt To Run (10/1), 3Percy (4/1)
Rest of field:7The Brown Egg (6/1), 2Renaissance Man (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 463571
🎯 Longshots: 4613257
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:3Breaking Stones (3/1)
Place:9Three Little Birds (7/2)
Show:5Allure Of Money (12/1)
Other contenders:1Heads Or Tails (8/1), 2Double Shot (4/1), 8Profitability (6/1)
Rest of field:6Winston D (6/1), 4Post Facto (15/1), 7Mister J T (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 392861
🎯 Longshots: 319527846
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,800
Win:3Red Burgundy (3/1)
Place:1Hidden Vase (4/1)
Show:8World Bank (8/1)
Other contenders:7Cararra (6/1), 4Lovely Pashyn (7/2), 2Dancin Jane (5/1)
Rest of field:5Diptique (12/1), 6Classiwest (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 314278
🎯 Longshots: 34817562
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,900
Win:6Trew Violence (6/1)
Place:1Muscle Shoals (9/2)
Show:8Hey Pal (3/1)
Other contenders:4Isola D'oro (7/2), 5Take The Gold (6/1), 2Gray Haired Gus (4/1)
Rest of field:7Fiscal Drag (15/1), 3Ducky Medwick (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 841625
🎯 Longshots: 86427153
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #8, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:6Cinnamon Sugar (2/1)
Place:3Blue Eyed Scout (5/2)
Show:4Thin Legs (7/2)
Other contenders:1Grand Lady Indy (5/1), 5Kaymus (8/1)
Rest of field:7Tumbles (15/1), 2Numeric (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 634157
🎯 Longshots: 6354172
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $24,500
Win:7Free Dance (8/5)
Place:3Beach Invasion (5/2)
Show:1Maturation (4/1)
Other contenders:5Shortsinthewinter (10/1), 4Janssen (8/1)
Rest of field:6Aelfgar (12/1), 2Eric From Miami (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 731456
🎯 Longshots: 7354612
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $17,000
Win:4Gattatiz (7/2)
Place:2Froghollowsummer (5/2)
Show:5Lively Pal (3/1)
Other contenders:1She's A Goddess (4/1), 3Klum (5/1)
Rest of field:6Southern Trouble (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 245136
🎯 Longshots: 451236
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,200
Win:3My Royal Vow (2/1)
Place:2Only In My Dreams (7/2)
Show:6Hypnocurrency (5/2)
Other contenders:1Peggy Rules (4/1), 4Honey In The Bank (12/1)
Rest of field:5Hazard Pay (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 362145
🎯 Longshots: 326145
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,800
Win:4Celtic Prince (5/2)
Place:6Notfanutin (7/2)
Show:3Percy (4/1)
Other contenders:7The Brown Egg (6/1), 1Bolt To Run (10/1)
Rest of field:5Grand Warrior (5/1), 2Renaissance Man (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 463752
🎯 Longshots: 4613257
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:3Breaking Stones (3/1)
Place:9Three Little Birds (7/2)
Show:8Profitability (6/1)
Other contenders:1Heads Or Tails (8/1), 2Double Shot (4/1), 5Allure Of Money (12/1)
Rest of field:6Winston D (6/1), 7Mister J T (12/1), 4Post Facto (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 392816
🎯 Longshots: 319527846
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #8, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,800
Win:3Red Burgundy (3/1)
Place:4Lovely Pashyn (7/2)
Show:1Hidden Vase (4/1)
Other contenders:7Cararra (6/1), 2Dancin Jane (5/1), 8World Bank (8/1)
Rest of field:5Diptique (12/1), 6Classiwest (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 341278
🎯 Longshots: 34817562
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $26,900
Win:6Trew Violence (6/1)
Place:1Muscle Shoals (9/2)
Show:4Isola D'oro (7/2)
Other contenders:8Hey Pal (3/1), 2Gray Haired Gus (4/1), 5Take The Gold (6/1)
Rest of field:7Fiscal Drag (15/1), 3Ducky Medwick (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 481625
🎯 Longshots: 86427153
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #4, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:6Cinnamon Sugar (2/1)
Place:4Thin Legs (7/2)
Show:3Blue Eyed Scout (5/2)
Other contenders:5Kaymus (8/1), 1Grand Lady Indy (5/1)
Rest of field:7Tumbles (15/1), 2Numeric (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 634157
🎯 Longshots: 6354172
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets – Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #7,#3 (61%) / R2: #2,#4,#5 (69%) / R3: #3,#2,#6 (77%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 33%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #2,#4,#5 (69%) / R3: #3,#2,#6 (77%) / R4: #3,#4,#6 (62%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 33%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #3,#2,#6 (77%) / R4: #3,#4,#6 (62%) / R5: #3,#9,#2 (62%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 30%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #4,#1,#7 (60%) / R7: #8,#4,#2 (55%) / R8: #6,#3 (66%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #7,#3 (61%) / R2: #2,#4,#5 (69%) / R3: #3,#2,#6 (77%) / R4: #3,#4,#6 (62%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 20%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #2,#4,#5 (69%) / R3: #3,#2,#6 (77%) / R4: #3,#4,#6 (62%) / R5: #3,#9,#2 (62%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 20%
Index – Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
AELFGARALLURE OF MONEYBEACH INVASIONBLUE EYED SCOUTBOLT TO RUN
CARARRACELTIC PRINCECINNAMON SUGARCLASSIWESTDANCIN JANE
DOUBLE SHOTDUCKY MEDWICKERIC FROM MIAMIFISCAL DRAGFREE DANCE
GATTATIZGRAND LADY INDYGRAND WARRIORGRAY HAIRED GUSHAZARD PAY
HEY PALHIDDEN VASEHONEY IN THE BANKHYPNOCURRENCYISOLA D'ORO
KAYMUSKLUMLIVELY PALLOVELY PASHYNMATURATION
MUSCLE SHOALSMY ROYAL VOWNOTFANUTINNUMERICONLY IN MY DREAMS
PERCYPOST FACTOPROFITABILITYRED BURGUNDYRENAISSANCE MAN
SHORTSINTHEWINTERSOUTHERN TROUBLETAKE THE GOLDTHE BROWN EGGTHIN LEGS
TREW VIOLENCETUMBLESWINSTON DWORLD BANK

 


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