Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Fort Erie, October 12, 2026


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Fort Erie — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 79 graded races at Fort Erie, 2026-08-18 to 2026-10-06.

0%11%22%33%44%Our top pick: 35.4% from 79 racesOur top pick35.4%Morning-line favourite: 26.6% from 79 racesMorning-line favourite26.6%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick35.4%79
Morning-line favourite26.6%79
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $25,200
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Whiskytangodisco (2/1)
Place:2Rose For Carrick (3/1)
Show:5Battle Warning (4/1)
Other contenders:4Pelee Island (7/2), 1Frac City (6/1)
Rest of field:3Solo Surging (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 264531
🎯 Longshots: 624513
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $28,050
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Shakoo Makoo (8/5)
Place:3Coherence (7/2)
Show:4Half To Reload (5/2)
Other contenders:5Forest Flash (3/1), 2Short Story Long (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 43215
🎯 Longshots: 14325
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,750
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Maritude (9/5)
Place:3Fredericka's Rose (4/1)
Show:5Silverdart (7/2)
Other contenders:1Japonka (5/2), 4Noyzee Girl (8/1)
Rest of field:6La Belva (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 215346
🎯 Longshots: 241356
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $23,700
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Sporty Angela (4/1)
Place:2Call Me Misslucky (3/1)
Show:5Toronto Hoops (2/1)
Other contenders:3Kittabarta (5/2), 4Dont Miss This (8/1)
Rest of field:6Charletta (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 162534
🎯 Longshots: 512346
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,375
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Wunhappy Wabbit (9/5)
Place:6Sultry Sophie (3/1)
Show:1Holiday Rose (4/1)
Other contenders:3High Miler (6/1), 5Jinx Me (5/1)
Rest of field:2Palmilla's Bet (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 461352
🎯 Longshots: 461235
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $28,050
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Doadster (7/2)
Place:3Gus's Gamble (3/1)
Show:2Sailor's Passion (2/1)
Other contenders:6Fast And Ready (10/1), 8Globetrotting (4/1), 4Silent Miracle (9/2)
Rest of field:7Mannix (8/1), 5Thelonious (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 672318
🎯 Longshots: 36712845
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Fort Erie — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 55 graded races at Fort Erie, 2026-09-07 to 2026-10-06.

0%11%22%32%43%Our top pick: 34.5% from 55 racesOur top pick34.5%Morning-line favourite: 30.9% from 55 racesMorning-line favourite30.9%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick34.5%55
Morning-line favourite30.9%55
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $25,200
Win:6Whiskytangodisco (2/1) 27% · fair 5-2 underlay -26%
Place:5Battle Warning (4/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Show:2Rose For Carrick (3/1) 21% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:4Pelee Island (7/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -38%, 1Frac City (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1
Rest of field:3Solo Surging (12/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -48%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Whiskytangodisco — 27.0% win probability, morning line 2/1Whiskytangodisco27.0% ◀Battle Warning — 21.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Battle Warning21.6%Rose For Carrick — 21.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Rose For Carrick21.0%Pelee Island — 15.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Pelee Island15.0%Frac City — 11.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Frac City11.2%Solo Surging — 4.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Solo Surging4.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Whiskytangodisco27.0%2/1
Battle Warning21.6%4/1
Rose For Carrick21.0%3/1
Pelee Island15.0%3.5/1
Frac City11.2%6/1
Solo Surging4.2%12/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherWhiskytangodisco: model 27.0% vs market 27.2% (-0.2 points)Whiskytangodisco-0.2Battle Warning: model 21.6% vs market 16.3% (+5.2 points)Battle Warning+5.2Rose For Carrick: model 21.0% vs market 20.4% (+0.6 points)Rose For Carrick+0.6Pelee Island: model 15.0% vs market 18.1% (-3.1 points)Pelee Island-3.1Frac City: model 11.2% vs market 11.7% (-0.5 points)Frac City-0.5Solo Surging: model 4.2% vs market 6.3% (-2.1 points)Solo Surging-2.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Whiskytangodisco27.0%27.2%-0.2
Battle Warning21.6%16.3%+5.2
Rose For Carrick21.0%20.4%+0.6
Pelee Island15.0%18.1%-3.1
Frac City11.2%11.7%-0.5
Solo Surging4.2%6.3%-2.1
🌧️ Off-track: 246531
🎯 Longshots: 624513
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $28,050
Win:1Shakoo Makoo (8/5) 30% · fair 5-2 underlay -31%
Place:4Half To Reload (5/2) 29% · fair 5-2
Show:5Forest Flash (3/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -35%
Other contenders:3Coherence (7/2) 17% · fair 9-2 underlay -26%, 2Short Story Long (12/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -33%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Shakoo Makoo — 30.2% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Shakoo Makoo30.2% ◀Half To Reload — 29.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Half To Reload29.2%Forest Flash — 17.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Forest Flash17.9%Coherence — 17.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Coherence17.4%Short Story Long — 5.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Short Story Long5.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Shakoo Makoo30.2%1.6/1
Half To Reload29.2%2.5/1
Forest Flash17.9%3/1
Coherence17.4%3.5/1
Short Story Long5.3%12/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherShakoo Makoo: model 30.2% vs market 31.5% (-1.3 points)Shakoo Makoo-1.3Half To Reload: model 29.2% vs market 23.4% (+5.8 points)Half To Reload+5.8Forest Flash: model 17.9% vs market 20.5% (-2.6 points)Forest Flash-2.6Coherence: model 17.4% vs market 18.2% (-0.8 points)Coherence-0.8Short Story Long: model 5.3% vs market 6.3% (-1.0 points)Short Story Long-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Shakoo Makoo30.2%31.5%-1.3
Half To Reload29.2%23.4%+5.8
Forest Flash17.9%20.5%-2.6
Coherence17.4%18.2%-0.8
Short Story Long5.3%6.3%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 24351
🎯 Longshots: 14325
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,750
Win:2Maritude (9/5) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:3Fredericka's Rose (4/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Show:1Japonka (5/2) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -43%
Other contenders:5Silverdart (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -29%, 4Noyzee Girl (8/1) 10% · fair 19-2
Rest of field:6La Belva (15/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -53%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Maritude — 29.7% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Maritude29.7% ◀Fredericka'S Rose — 22.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Fredericka'S Rose22.1%Japonka — 18.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Japonka18.6%Silverdart — 16.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Silverdart16.9%Noyzee Girl — 9.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Noyzee Girl9.7%La Belva — 3.0% win probability, morning line 15/1La Belva3.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Maritude29.7%1.8/1
Fredericka'S Rose22.1%4/1
Japonka18.6%2.5/1
Silverdart16.9%3.5/1
Noyzee Girl9.7%8/1
La Belva3.0%15/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMaritude: model 29.7% vs market 28.8% (+0.9 points)Maritude+0.9Fredericka'S Rose: model 22.1% vs market 16.1% (+6.0 points)Fredericka'S Rose+6.0Japonka: model 18.6% vs market 23.1% (-4.5 points)Japonka-4.5Silverdart: model 16.9% vs market 17.9% (-1.1 points)Silverdart-1.1Noyzee Girl: model 9.7% vs market 9.0% (+0.7 points)Noyzee Girl+0.7La Belva: model 3.0% vs market 5.0% (-2.0 points)La Belva-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Maritude29.7%28.8%+0.9
Fredericka'S Rose22.1%16.1%+6.0
Japonka18.6%23.1%-4.5
Silverdart16.9%17.9%-1.1
Noyzee Girl9.7%9.0%+0.7
La Belva3.0%5.0%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 215346
🎯 Longshots: 241356
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $23,700
Win:1Sporty Angela (4/1) 37% · fair 3-2 overlay +140%
Place:2Call Me Misslucky (3/1) 25% · fair 3-1
Show:5Toronto Hoops (2/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -57%
Other contenders:3Kittabarta (5/2) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -64%, 4Dont Miss This (8/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -54%
Rest of field:6Charletta (20/1) 2% · fair 46-1 underlay -57%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Sporty Angela — 37.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Sporty Angela37.5% ◀Call Me Misslucky — 24.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Call Me Misslucky24.5%Toronto Hoops — 17.7% win probability, morning line 2/1Toronto Hoops17.7%Kittabarta — 12.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Kittabarta12.7%Dont Miss This — 5.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Dont Miss This5.5%Charletta — 2.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Charletta2.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Sporty Angela37.5%4/1
Call Me Misslucky24.5%3/1
Toronto Hoops17.7%2/1
Kittabarta12.7%2.5/1
Dont Miss This5.5%8/1
Charletta2.1%20/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSporty Angela: model 37.5% vs market 16.3% (+21.2 points)Sporty Angela+21.2Call Me Misslucky: model 24.5% vs market 20.4% (+4.2 points)Call Me Misslucky+4.2Toronto Hoops: model 17.7% vs market 27.1% (-9.5 points)Toronto Hoops-9.5Kittabarta: model 12.7% vs market 23.3% (-10.6 points)Kittabarta-10.6Dont Miss This: model 5.5% vs market 9.0% (-3.6 points)Dont Miss This-3.6Charletta: model 2.1% vs market 3.9% (-1.8 points)Charletta-1.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Sporty Angela37.5%16.3%+21.2
Call Me Misslucky24.5%20.4%+4.2
Toronto Hoops17.7%27.1%-9.5
Kittabarta12.7%23.3%-10.6
Dont Miss This5.5%9.0%-3.6
Charletta2.1%3.9%-1.8
🌧️ Off-track: 162543
🎯 Longshots: 512346
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,375
Win:4Wunhappy Wabbit (9/5) 40% · fair 3-2
Place:6Sultry Sophie (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:1Holiday Rose (4/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -38%
Other contenders:3High Miler (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 5Jinx Me (5/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -47%
Rest of field:2Palmilla's Bet (8/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -60%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Wunhappy Wabbit — 40.2% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Wunhappy Wabbit40.2% ◀Sultry Sophie — 20.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Sultry Sophie20.5%Holiday Rose — 13.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Holiday Rose13.4%High Miler — 11.5% win probability, morning line 6/1High Miler11.5%Jinx Me — 9.6% win probability, morning line 5/1Jinx Me9.6%Palmilla'S Bet — 4.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Palmilla'S Bet4.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Wunhappy Wabbit40.2%1.8/1
Sultry Sophie20.5%3/1
Holiday Rose13.4%4/1
High Miler11.5%6/1
Jinx Me9.6%5/1
Palmilla'S Bet4.8%8/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherWunhappy Wabbit: model 40.2% vs market 29.1% (+11.1 points)Wunhappy Wabbit+11.1Sultry Sophie: model 20.5% vs market 20.4% (+0.1 points)Sultry Sophie+0.1Holiday Rose: model 13.4% vs market 16.3% (-2.9 points)Holiday Rose-2.9High Miler: model 11.5% vs market 11.6% (-0.1 points)High Miler-0.1Jinx Me: model 9.6% vs market 13.6% (-4.0 points)Jinx Me-4.0Palmilla'S Bet: model 4.8% vs market 9.0% (-4.3 points)Palmilla'S Bet-4.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Wunhappy Wabbit40.2%29.1%+11.1
Sultry Sophie20.5%20.4%+0.1
Holiday Rose13.4%16.3%-2.9
High Miler11.5%11.6%-0.1
Jinx Me9.6%13.6%-4.0
Palmilla'S Bet4.8%9.0%-4.3
🌧️ Off-track: 461352
🎯 Longshots: 461235
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $28,050
Win:3Gus's Gamble (3/1) 26% · fair 3-1
Place:1Doadster (7/2) 19% · fair 4-1
Show:2Sailor's Passion (2/1) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -52%
Other contenders:8Globetrotting (4/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -57%, 4Silent Miracle (9/2) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -52%, 6Fast And Ready (10/1) 7% · fair 13-1
Rest of field:7Mannix (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -41%, 5Thelonious (20/1) 2% · fair 111-2 underlay -64%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Gus'S Gamble — 26.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Gus'S Gamble26.2% ◀Doadster — 19.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Doadster19.5%Sailor'S Passion — 19.3% win probability, morning line 2/1Sailor'S Passion19.3%Globetrotting — 9.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Globetrotting9.6%Silent Miracle — 9.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Silent Miracle9.6%Fast And Ready — 7.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Fast And Ready7.1%Mannix — 6.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Mannix6.9%Thelonious — 1.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Thelonious1.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Gus'S Gamble26.2%3/1
Doadster19.5%3.5/1
Sailor'S Passion19.3%2/1
Globetrotting9.6%4/1
Silent Miracle9.6%4.5/1
Fast And Ready7.1%10/1
Mannix6.9%8/1
Thelonious1.8%20/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGus'S Gamble: model 26.2% vs market 17.4% (+8.8 points)Gus'S Gamble+8.8Doadster: model 19.5% vs market 15.5% (+4.0 points)Doadster+4.0Sailor'S Passion: model 19.3% vs market 23.2% (-3.9 points)Sailor'S Passion-3.9Globetrotting: model 9.6% vs market 13.9% (-4.3 points)Globetrotting-4.3Silent Miracle: model 9.6% vs market 12.7% (-3.1 points)Silent Miracle-3.1Fast And Ready: model 7.1% vs market 6.3% (+0.8 points)Fast And Ready+0.8Mannix: model 6.9% vs market 7.7% (-0.8 points)Mannix-0.8Thelonious: model 1.8% vs market 3.3% (-1.5 points)Thelonious-1.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Gus'S Gamble26.2%17.4%+8.8
Doadster19.5%15.5%+4.0
Sailor'S Passion19.3%23.2%-3.9
Globetrotting9.6%13.9%-4.3
Silent Miracle9.6%12.7%-3.1
Fast And Ready7.1%6.3%+0.8
Mannix6.9%7.7%-0.8
Thelonious1.8%3.3%-1.5
🌧️ Off-track: 672315
🎯 Longshots: 36712845
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #2, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Fort Erie — in-the-money rate

How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 170 graded races at Fort Erie, 2026-05-31 to 2026-10-06.

0%22%43%65%86%Our top pick: 68.8% from 170 racesOur top pick68.8%Morning-line favourite: 66.5% from 170 racesMorning-line favourite66.5%

In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick68.8%170
Morning-line favourite66.5%170
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $25,200
Win:5Battle Warning (4/1)
Place:4Pelee Island (7/2)
Show:1Frac City (6/1)
Other contenders:2Rose For Carrick (3/1), 6Whiskytangodisco (2/1)
Rest of field:3Solo Surging (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 246513
🎯 Longshots: 624513
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $28,050
Win:1Shakoo Makoo (8/5)
Place:5Forest Flash (3/1)
Show:4Half To Reload (5/2)
Other contenders:3Coherence (7/2), 2Short Story Long (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 14352
🎯 Longshots: 14325
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,750
Win:2Maritude (9/5)
Place:3Fredericka's Rose (4/1)
Show:1Japonka (5/2)
Other contenders:5Silverdart (7/2), 4Noyzee Girl (8/1)
Rest of field:6La Belva (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 215346
🎯 Longshots: 241356
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $23,700
Win:1Sporty Angela (4/1)
Place:5Toronto Hoops (2/1)
Show:2Call Me Misslucky (3/1)
Other contenders:4Dont Miss This (8/1), 3Kittabarta (5/2)
Rest of field:6Charletta (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 152436
🎯 Longshots: 512346
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,375
Win:4Wunhappy Wabbit (9/5)
Place:6Sultry Sophie (3/1)
Show:1Holiday Rose (4/1)
Other contenders:3High Miler (6/1), 5Jinx Me (5/1)
Rest of field:2Palmilla's Bet (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 461352
🎯 Longshots: 461235
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $28,050
Win:1Doadster (7/2)
Place:2Sailor's Passion (2/1)
Show:6Fast And Ready (10/1)
Other contenders:3Gus's Gamble (3/1), 4Silent Miracle (9/2), 8Globetrotting (4/1)
Rest of field:7Mannix (8/1), 5Thelonious (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 672138
🎯 Longshots: 36712845
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #6 over #2 ($1 straight; box #6-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #6, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #4, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #2 over #3 ($1 straight; box #2-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #3, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #2 over #5 ($1 straight; box #2-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #5, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #4 over #6 ($1 straight; box #4-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #6, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #3 over #1 ($1 straight; box #3-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #6, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $25,200
Win:1Frac City (6/1)
Place:6Whiskytangodisco (2/1)
Show:4Pelee Island (7/2)
Other contenders:2Rose For Carrick (3/1), 5Battle Warning (4/1)
Rest of field:3Solo Surging (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 264153
🎯 Longshots: 624513
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $28,050
Win:1Shakoo Makoo (8/5)
Place:4Half To Reload (5/2)
Show:3Coherence (7/2)
Other contenders:5Forest Flash (3/1), 2Short Story Long (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 14352
🎯 Longshots: 14325
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,750
Win:2Maritude (9/5)
Place:3Fredericka's Rose (4/1)
Show:1Japonka (5/2)
Other contenders:5Silverdart (7/2), 4Noyzee Girl (8/1)
Rest of field:6La Belva (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 215346
🎯 Longshots: 241356
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $23,700
Win:1Sporty Angela (4/1)
Place:5Toronto Hoops (2/1)
Show:3Kittabarta (5/2)
Other contenders:2Call Me Misslucky (3/1), 4Dont Miss This (8/1)
Rest of field:6Charletta (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 153246
🎯 Longshots: 512346
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,375
Win:4Wunhappy Wabbit (9/5)
Place:6Sultry Sophie (3/1)
Show:1Holiday Rose (4/1)
Other contenders:3High Miler (6/1), 5Jinx Me (5/1)
Rest of field:2Palmilla's Bet (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 461352
🎯 Longshots: 461235
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $28,050
Win:3Gus's Gamble (3/1)
Place:1Doadster (7/2)
Show:2Sailor's Passion (2/1)
Other contenders:4Silent Miracle (9/2), 6Fast And Ready (10/1), 8Globetrotting (4/1)
Rest of field:7Mannix (8/1), 5Thelonious (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 672318
🎯 Longshots: 36712845
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  7 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $25,200
Win:5Battle Warning (4/1)
Place:6Whiskytangodisco (2/1)
Show:2Rose For Carrick (3/1)
Other contenders:4Pelee Island (7/2), 1Frac City (6/1)
Rest of field:3Solo Surging (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 264513
🎯 Longshots: 624513
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $28,050
Win:1Shakoo Makoo (8/5)
Place:4Half To Reload (5/2)
Show:3Coherence (7/2)
Other contenders:5Forest Flash (3/1), 2Short Story Long (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 14352
🎯 Longshots: 14325
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,750
Win:2Maritude (9/5)
Place:3Fredericka's Rose (4/1)
Show:1Japonka (5/2)
Other contenders:5Silverdart (7/2), 4Noyzee Girl (8/1)
Rest of field:6La Belva (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 213546
🎯 Longshots: 241356
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $23,700
Win:1Sporty Angela (4/1)
Place:5Toronto Hoops (2/1)
Show:2Call Me Misslucky (3/1)
Other contenders:3Kittabarta (5/2), 4Dont Miss This (8/1)
Rest of field:6Charletta (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 152346
🎯 Longshots: 512346
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,375
Win:4Wunhappy Wabbit (9/5)
Place:6Sultry Sophie (3/1)
Show:1Holiday Rose (4/1)
Other contenders:3High Miler (6/1), 5Jinx Me (5/1)
Rest of field:2Palmilla's Bet (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 461352
🎯 Longshots: 461235
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $28,050
Win:1Doadster (7/2)
Place:6Fast And Ready (10/1)
Show:2Sailor's Passion (2/1)
Other contenders:3Gus's Gamble (3/1), 8Globetrotting (4/1), 4Silent Miracle (9/2)
Rest of field:7Mannix (8/1), 5Thelonious (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 672138
🎯 Longshots: 36712845
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets – Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #6,#5,#2 (70%) / R2: #1,#4,#5 (77%) / R3: #2,#3,#1 (70%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 38%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #1,#4,#5 (77%) / R3: #2,#3,#1 (70%) / R4: #1,#2 (62%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 34%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #2,#3,#1 (70%) / R4: #1,#2 (62%) / R5: #4,#6 (61%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #1,#2 (62%) / R5: #4,#6 (61%) / R6: #3,#1,#2 (65%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 24%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #1,#4,#5 (77%) / R3: #2,#3,#1 (70%) / R4: #1,#2 (62%) / R5: #4,#6 (61%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 20%
Pick 4 R3-6R3: #2,#3,#1 (70%) / R4: #1,#2 (62%) / R5: #4,#6 (61%) / R6: #3,#1,#2 (65%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17%
Index – Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
BATTLE WARNINGCALL ME MISSLUCKYCHARLETTACOHERENCEDOADSTER
FAST AND READYFOREST FLASHFRAC CITYFREDERICKA'S ROSEGLOBETROTTING
HALF TO RELOADHIGH MILERHOLIDAY ROSEJAPONKAJINX ME
LA BELVAMANNIXMARITUDENOYZEE GIRLPALMILLA'S BET
ROSE FOR CARRICKSAILOR'S PASSIONSHAKOO MAKOOSHORT STORY LONGSILENT MIRACLE
SOLO SURGINGSPORTY ANGELASULTRY SOPHIETHELONIOUSTORONTO HOOPS
WUNHAPPY WABBIT

 


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback