Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – FTP, October 3, 2026


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Defense Wins (5/2)
Place:3Wicklow Hills (6/1)
Show:5Time Machine (4/1)
Other contenders:6Bali Rolling Tide (3/1), 4Cupids Sweety (8/1), 2Angel's Magic (15/1)
Rest of field:8Prince Is My Boy (20/1), 7Catrick (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 148753
🎯 Longshots: 13824567
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $6,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Majestic Liaison (2/1)
Place:1Doris Avenue (6/1)
Show:2Rally Cat (5/1)
Other contenders:4The Winning Edge (5/1), 5State Forty Eight (7/2), 3Westons Wildcat (8/1)
Rest of field:8Sumitup (12/1), 7Grey Shadow (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 461253
🎯 Longshots: 68312745
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $5,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Mysterious Tale (2/1)
Place:2Kate's Princess (5/1)
Show:3Golden Hornet (20/1)
Other contenders:5Joe G's Payback (5/1), 4Loring Park (8/1)
Rest of field:1Shut Up Man (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 642531
🎯 Longshots: 634125
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Clay's Ruby Love (2/1)
Place:8Trip To Freedom (2/1)
Show:7Neon Moonlight (3/1)
Other contenders:5Low Euro Cat (12/1), 3Sweet Hello (20/1), 6Nana Moon (15/1)
Rest of field:4Patsy Montana (25/1), 2Marlee Moon (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 183742
🎯 Longshots: 18534762
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $10,250
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Without Equal (2/1)
Place:4My Crazy Neighbor (8/1)
Show:5Zultan (8/1)
Other contenders:3Into Wishing (5/1), 6Ez Fitz (10/1)
Rest of field:7Coppermaster (10/1), 1Funkenstein (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 245671
🎯 Longshots: 2465173
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:1Defense Wins (5/2) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:5Time Machine (4/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Show:6Bali Rolling Tide (3/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -44%
Other contenders:3Wicklow Hills (6/1) 14% · fair 6-1, 7Catrick (5/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -57%, 4Cupids Sweety (8/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -38%
Rest of field:8Prince Is My Boy (20/1) 5% · fair 19-1, 2Angel's Magic (15/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -39%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Defense Wins — 30.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Defense Wins30.2% ◀Time Machine — 16.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Time Machine16.1%Bali Rolling Tide — 15.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Bali Rolling Tide15.7%Wicklow Hills — 14.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Wicklow Hills14.0%Catrick — 7.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Catrick7.9%Cupids Sweety — 7.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Cupids Sweety7.1%Prince Is My Boy — 5.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Prince Is My Boy5.0%Angel'S Magic — 3.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Angel'S Magic3.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Defense Wins30.2%2.5/1
Time Machine16.1%4/1
Bali Rolling Tide15.7%3/1
Wicklow Hills14.0%6/1
Catrick7.9%5/1
Cupids Sweety7.1%8/1
Prince Is My Boy5.0%20/1
Angel'S Magic3.9%15/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDefense Wins: model 30.2% vs market 22.6% (+7.6 points)Defense Wins+7.6Time Machine: model 16.1% vs market 15.8% (+0.3 points)Time Machine+0.3Bali Rolling Tide: model 15.7% vs market 19.7% (-4.0 points)Bali Rolling Tide-4.0Wicklow Hills: model 14.0% vs market 11.3% (+2.7 points)Wicklow Hills+2.7Catrick: model 7.9% vs market 13.2% (-5.2 points)Catrick-5.2Cupids Sweety: model 7.1% vs market 8.8% (-1.6 points)Cupids Sweety-1.6Prince Is My Boy: model 5.0% vs market 3.8% (+1.3 points)Prince Is My Boy+1.3Angel'S Magic: model 3.9% vs market 4.9% (-1.0 points)Angel'S Magic-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Defense Wins30.2%22.6%+7.6
Time Machine16.1%15.8%+0.3
Bali Rolling Tide15.7%19.7%-4.0
Wicklow Hills14.0%11.3%+2.7
Catrick7.9%13.2%-5.2
Cupids Sweety7.1%8.8%-1.6
Prince Is My Boy5.0%3.8%+1.3
Angel'S Magic3.9%4.9%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 174853
🎯 Longshots: 13824567
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $6,000
Win:6Majestic Liaison (2/1) 33% · fair 2-1
Place:1Doris Avenue (6/1) 15% · fair 6-1
Show:2Rally Cat (5/1) 14% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:4The Winning Edge (5/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -38%, 5State Forty Eight (7/2) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -58%, 3Westons Wildcat (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -36%
Rest of field:8Sumitup (12/1) 7% · fair 29-2, 7Grey Shadow (20/1) 3% · fair 77-2 underlay -48%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Majestic Liaison — 32.5% win probability, morning line 2/1Majestic Liaison32.5% ◀Doris Avenue — 14.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Doris Avenue14.8%Rally Cat — 14.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Rally Cat14.4%The Winning Edge — 11.0% win probability, morning line 5/1The Winning Edge11.0%State Forty Eight — 10.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1State Forty Eight10.7%Westons Wildcat — 7.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Westons Wildcat7.4%Sumitup — 6.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Sumitup6.5%Grey Shadow — 2.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Grey Shadow2.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Majestic Liaison32.5%2/1
Doris Avenue14.8%6/1
Rally Cat14.4%5/1
The Winning Edge11.0%5/1
State Forty Eight10.7%3.5/1
Westons Wildcat7.4%8/1
Sumitup6.5%12/1
Grey Shadow2.5%20/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMajestic Liaison: model 32.5% vs market 26.3% (+6.2 points)Majestic Liaison+6.2Doris Avenue: model 14.8% vs market 11.3% (+3.5 points)Doris Avenue+3.5Rally Cat: model 14.4% vs market 13.2% (+1.3 points)Rally Cat+1.3The Winning Edge: model 11.0% vs market 13.2% (-2.1 points)The Winning Edge-2.1State Forty Eight: model 10.7% vs market 17.5% (-6.8 points)State Forty Eight-6.8Westons Wildcat: model 7.4% vs market 8.8% (-1.4 points)Westons Wildcat-1.4Sumitup: model 6.5% vs market 6.1% (+0.5 points)Sumitup+0.5Grey Shadow: model 2.5% vs market 3.8% (-1.2 points)Grey Shadow-1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Majestic Liaison32.5%26.3%+6.2
Doris Avenue14.8%11.3%+3.5
Rally Cat14.4%13.2%+1.3
The Winning Edge11.0%13.2%-2.1
State Forty Eight10.7%17.5%-6.8
Westons Wildcat7.4%8.8%-1.4
Sumitup6.5%6.1%+0.5
Grey Shadow2.5%3.8%-1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 461253
🎯 Longshots: 68312745
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $5,000
Win:6Mysterious Tale (2/1) 43% · fair 3-2 overlay +50%
Place:2Kate's Princess (5/1) 19% · fair 4-1
Show:5Joe G's Payback (5/1) 14% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:4Loring Park (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 3Golden Hornet (20/1) 6% · fair 15-1 overlay +31%
Rest of field:1Shut Up Man (12/1) 6% · fair 31-2
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Mysterious Tale — 42.9% win probability, morning line 2/1Mysterious Tale42.9% ◀Kate'S Princess — 19.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Kate'S Princess19.3%Joe G'S Payback — 13.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Joe G'S Payback13.7%Loring Park — 11.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Loring Park11.9%Golden Hornet — 6.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Golden Hornet6.2%Shut Up Man — 6.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Shut Up Man6.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Mysterious Tale42.9%2/1
Kate'S Princess19.3%5/1
Joe G'S Payback13.7%5/1
Loring Park11.9%8/1
Golden Hornet6.2%20/1
Shut Up Man6.1%12/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMysterious Tale: model 42.9% vs market 36.9% (+6.0 points)Mysterious Tale+6.0Kate'S Princess: model 19.3% vs market 18.5% (+0.8 points)Kate'S Princess+0.8Joe G'S Payback: model 13.7% vs market 18.5% (-4.7 points)Joe G'S Payback-4.7Loring Park: model 11.9% vs market 12.3% (-0.5 points)Loring Park-0.5Golden Hornet: model 6.2% vs market 5.3% (+0.9 points)Golden Hornet+0.9Shut Up Man: model 6.1% vs market 8.5% (-2.5 points)Shut Up Man-2.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Mysterious Tale42.9%36.9%+6.0
Kate'S Princess19.3%18.5%+0.8
Joe G'S Payback13.7%18.5%-4.7
Loring Park11.9%12.3%-0.5
Golden Hornet6.2%5.3%+0.9
Shut Up Man6.1%8.5%-2.5
🌧️ Off-track: 642513
🎯 Longshots: 634125
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:1Clay's Ruby Love (2/1) 33% · fair 2-1
Place:8Trip To Freedom (2/1) 28% · fair 5-2
Show:7Neon Moonlight (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -38%
Other contenders:5Low Euro Cat (12/1) 6% · fair 15-1, 2Marlee Moon (8/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -60%, 6Nana Moon (15/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -30%
Rest of field:3Sweet Hello (20/1) 4% · fair 53-2, 4Patsy Montana (25/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -27%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Clay'S Ruby Love — 32.8% win probability, morning line 2/1Clay'S Ruby Love32.8% ◀Trip To Freedom — 28.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Trip To Freedom28.1%Neon Moonlight — 17.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Neon Moonlight17.2%Low Euro Cat — 6.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Low Euro Cat6.3%Marlee Moon — 4.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Marlee Moon4.8%Nana Moon — 4.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Nana Moon4.4%Sweet Hello — 3.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Sweet Hello3.6%Patsy Montana — 2.8% win probability, morning line 25/1Patsy Montana2.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Clay'S Ruby Love32.8%2/1
Trip To Freedom28.1%2/1
Neon Moonlight17.2%3/1
Low Euro Cat6.3%12/1
Marlee Moon4.8%8/1
Nana Moon4.4%15/1
Sweet Hello3.6%20/1
Patsy Montana2.8%25/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherClay'S Ruby Love: model 32.8% vs market 26.6% (+6.2 points)Clay'S Ruby Love+6.2Trip To Freedom: model 28.1% vs market 26.6% (+1.5 points)Trip To Freedom+1.5Neon Moonlight: model 17.2% vs market 19.9% (-2.7 points)Neon Moonlight-2.7Low Euro Cat: model 6.3% vs market 6.1% (+0.1 points)Low Euro Cat+0.1Marlee Moon: model 4.8% vs market 8.9% (-4.1 points)Marlee Moon-4.1Nana Moon: model 4.4% vs market 5.0% (-0.5 points)Nana Moon-0.5Sweet Hello: model 3.6% vs market 3.8% (-0.2 points)Sweet Hello-0.2Patsy Montana: model 2.8% vs market 3.1% (-0.2 points)Patsy Montana-0.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Clay'S Ruby Love32.8%26.6%+6.2
Trip To Freedom28.1%26.6%+1.5
Neon Moonlight17.2%19.9%-2.7
Low Euro Cat6.3%6.1%+0.1
Marlee Moon4.8%8.9%-4.1
Nana Moon4.4%5.0%-0.5
Sweet Hello3.6%3.8%-0.2
Patsy Montana2.8%3.1%-0.2
🌧️ Off-track: 318724
🎯 Longshots: 18534762
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $10,250
Win:2Without Equal (2/1) 44% · fair 3-2 overlay +57%
Place:4My Crazy Neighbor (8/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Show:3Into Wishing (5/1) 11% · fair 15-2 underlay -35%
Other contenders:5Zultan (8/1) 11% · fair 17-2, 7Coppermaster (10/1) 8% · fair 11-1
Rest of field:1Funkenstein (15/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 6Ez Fitz (10/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -41%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Without Equal — 44.0% win probability, morning line 2/1Without Equal44.0% ◀My Crazy Neighbor — 12.9% win probability, morning line 8/1My Crazy Neighbor12.9%Into Wishing — 11.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Into Wishing11.5%Zultan — 10.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Zultan10.7%Coppermaster — 8.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Coppermaster8.4%Funkenstein — 7.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Funkenstein7.0%Ez Fitz — 5.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Ez Fitz5.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Without Equal44.0%2/1
My Crazy Neighbor12.9%8/1
Into Wishing11.5%5/1
Zultan10.7%8/1
Coppermaster8.4%10/1
Funkenstein7.0%15/1
Ez Fitz5.5%10/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherWithout Equal: model 44.0% vs market 34.5% (+9.5 points)Without Equal+9.5My Crazy Neighbor: model 12.9% vs market 11.5% (+1.4 points)My Crazy Neighbor+1.4Into Wishing: model 11.5% vs market 17.2% (-5.8 points)Into Wishing-5.8Zultan: model 10.7% vs market 11.5% (-0.8 points)Zultan-0.8Coppermaster: model 8.4% vs market 9.4% (-1.0 points)Coppermaster-1.0Funkenstein: model 7.0% vs market 6.5% (+0.5 points)Funkenstein+0.5Ez Fitz: model 5.5% vs market 9.4% (-3.9 points)Ez Fitz-3.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Without Equal44.0%34.5%+9.5
My Crazy Neighbor12.9%11.5%+1.4
Into Wishing11.5%17.2%-5.8
Zultan10.7%11.5%-0.8
Coppermaster8.4%9.4%-1.0
Funkenstein7.0%6.5%+0.5
Ez Fitz5.5%9.4%-3.9
🌧️ Off-track: 245716
🎯 Longshots: 2465173
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:1Defense Wins (5/2)
Place:3Wicklow Hills (6/1)
Show:5Time Machine (4/1)
Other contenders:6Bali Rolling Tide (3/1), 2Angel's Magic (15/1), 4Cupids Sweety (8/1)
Rest of field:8Prince Is My Boy (20/1), 7Catrick (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 135486
🎯 Longshots: 13824567
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $6,000
Win:2Rally Cat (5/1)
Place:6Majestic Liaison (2/1)
Show:1Doris Avenue (6/1)
Other contenders:4The Winning Edge (5/1), 8Sumitup (12/1), 7Grey Shadow (20/1)
Rest of field:3Westons Wildcat (8/1), 5State Forty Eight (7/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 264183
🎯 Longshots: 68312745
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $5,000
Win:3Golden Hornet (20/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:6Mysterious Tale (2/1)
Show:2Kate's Princess (5/1)
Other contenders:5Joe G's Payback (5/1), 4Loring Park (8/1)
Rest of field:1Shut Up Man (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 362541
🎯 Longshots: 634125
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:8Trip To Freedom (2/1)
Place:1Clay's Ruby Love (2/1)
Show:7Neon Moonlight (3/1)
Other contenders:5Low Euro Cat (12/1), 4Patsy Montana (25/1), 6Nana Moon (15/1)
Rest of field:3Sweet Hello (20/1), 2Marlee Moon (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 817453
🎯 Longshots: 18534762
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $10,250
Win:2Without Equal (2/1)
Place:4My Crazy Neighbor (8/1)
Show:6Ez Fitz (10/1)
Other contenders:3Into Wishing (5/1), 1Funkenstein (15/1)
Rest of field:5Zultan (8/1), 7Coppermaster (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 246157
🎯 Longshots: 2465173
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #1 over #3 ($1 straight; box #1-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #3, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #6 over #2 ($1 straight; box #6-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #6, #1, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #6 over #2 ($1 straight; box #6-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #2, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #1 over #8 ($1 straight; box #1-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #1, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #2 over #4 ($1 straight; box #2-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #4, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Weekend sizing: ×0.88 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
63Golden Hornet20/1—7.8%+56.0%0.70%$0.70
84Patsy Montana25/1—5.2%+30.4%0.30%$0.30
83Sweet Hello20/1—5.6%+15.2%0.19%$0.19
TOTAL across 3 plays:1.2%$1.20
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:1Defense Wins (5/2)
Place:3Wicklow Hills (6/1)
Show:5Time Machine (4/1)
Other contenders:2Angel's Magic (15/1), 6Bali Rolling Tide (3/1), 4Cupids Sweety (8/1)
Rest of field:7Catrick (5/1), 8Prince Is My Boy (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 135426
🎯 Longshots: 13824567
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $6,000
Win:2Rally Cat (5/1)
Place:6Majestic Liaison (2/1)
Show:1Doris Avenue (6/1)
Other contenders:5State Forty Eight (7/2), 8Sumitup (12/1), 4The Winning Edge (5/1)
Rest of field:3Westons Wildcat (8/1), 7Grey Shadow (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 261458
🎯 Longshots: 68312745
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $5,000
Win:2Kate's Princess (5/1)
Place:6Mysterious Tale (2/1)
Show:3Golden Hornet (20/1)
Other contenders:5Joe G's Payback (5/1), 4Loring Park (8/1)
Rest of field:1Shut Up Man (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 263541
🎯 Longshots: 634125
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:8Trip To Freedom (2/1)
Place:1Clay's Ruby Love (2/1)
Show:7Neon Moonlight (3/1)
Other contenders:5Low Euro Cat (12/1), 3Sweet Hello (20/1), 6Nana Moon (15/1)
Rest of field:4Patsy Montana (25/1), 2Marlee Moon (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 817534
🎯 Longshots: 18534762
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $10,250
Win:2Without Equal (2/1)
Place:4My Crazy Neighbor (8/1)
Show:1Funkenstein (15/1)
Other contenders:6Ez Fitz (10/1), 5Zultan (8/1)
Rest of field:3Into Wishing (5/1), 7Coppermaster (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 241657
🎯 Longshots: 2465173
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:1Defense Wins (5/2)
Place:3Wicklow Hills (6/1)
Show:5Time Machine (4/1)
Other contenders:2Angel's Magic (15/1), 6Bali Rolling Tide (3/1), 4Cupids Sweety (8/1)
Rest of field:8Prince Is My Boy (20/1), 7Catrick (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 153486
🎯 Longshots: 13824567
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $6,000
Win:2Rally Cat (5/1)
Place:6Majestic Liaison (2/1)
Show:1Doris Avenue (6/1)
Other contenders:8Sumitup (12/1), 3Westons Wildcat (8/1), 4The Winning Edge (5/1)
Rest of field:5State Forty Eight (7/2), 7Grey Shadow (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 261843
🎯 Longshots: 68312745
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $5,000
Win:6Mysterious Tale (2/1)
Place:2Kate's Princess (5/1)
Show:3Golden Hornet (20/1)
Other contenders:5Joe G's Payback (5/1), 4Loring Park (8/1)
Rest of field:1Shut Up Man (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 623541
🎯 Longshots: 634125
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $8,000
Win:8Trip To Freedom (2/1)
Place:1Clay's Ruby Love (2/1)
Show:7Neon Moonlight (3/1)
Other contenders:5Low Euro Cat (12/1), 3Sweet Hello (20/1), 4Patsy Montana (25/1)
Rest of field:6Nana Moon (15/1), 2Marlee Moon (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 817534
🎯 Longshots: 18534762
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $10,250
Win:2Without Equal (2/1)
Place:4My Crazy Neighbor (8/1)
Show:5Zultan (8/1)
Other contenders:6Ez Fitz (10/1), 3Into Wishing (5/1)
Rest of field:1Funkenstein (15/1), 7Coppermaster (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 245613
🎯 Longshots: 2465173
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ANGEL'S MAGICAPOLLITICAL CROWDBALI ROLLING TIDEBHR RELENTLESSBHR WINNING STREAK
CATRICKCLAY'S RUBY LOVECOPPERMASTERCUPIDS SWEETYCYE FUN N FANCY
DM FLYIN FIRST CLASSDORIS AVENUEDS PRINCESSEZ FITZFIRE IN D SKY
FUNKENSTEINGOLDEN HORNETGREY SHADOWHASTA BE KASHIM JESS THAT GUY
INTO WISHINGJES A DARLINGJESS SEASIDEJOE G'S PAYBACKKATE'S PRINCESS
LORING PARKLOW EURO CATMAJESTIC LIAISONMARLEE MOONMILAGRO LADY
MYSTERIOUS TALENANA MOONNEON MOONLIGHTONE HOT HEADLIGHTPATSY MONTANA
RALLY CATREGALLY VALIANTSECRET BRANDISEE U NEXT TUESDAYSHUT UP MAN
STREAK N QUARTZSUMITUPSWEET HELLOTHE WINNING EDGETIME MACHINE
WESTONS WILDCATWHITE SHOES WILLYWHOSE DA BOSSWICKLOW HILLSWITHOUT EQUAL
ZULTAN

 


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