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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Gulfstream Park, November 14, 2026

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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Gulfstream Park — win rate vs the experts

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 297 graded races at Gulfstream Park, 2026-08-15 to 2026-11-08.

0%11%22%33%43%Our top pick: 34.7% from 297 racesOur top pick34.7%Expert consensus pick: 32.0% from 297 racesExpert consensus pick32.0%

The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick34.7%297
Expert consensus pick32.0%297
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $25,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7Miss Silipo (2/1)
Place:5Our Perfect Amanda (7/2)
Show:4I'm Chill (4/1)
Other contenders:6Decisive Maiara (5/1), 3Chrissy's Dream (8/1), 9Loyalist (15/1)
Rest of field:2Via Via Via (10/1), 1Sista Sol (20/1), 8Shamrock Queen (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 754639
🎯 Longshots: 754963218
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7Finest Gamble (9/5)
Place:2Sherman Fury (7/2)
Show:4Magic Heart (4/1)
Other contenders:8Esperanzito (6/1), 1Tall Story (10/1), 3Tapstick (8/1)
Rest of field:6Complexed (15/1), 5David Pepperman (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 724813
🎯 Longshots: 71365248
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #4, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $50,000
Win:2Starship Patriot (2/1)
Place:6Extra Sugar (7/2)
Show:4Delightful Diva (5/1)
Other contenders:3Cat's Meow (4/1), 7Caramel Blue (6/1)
Rest of field:1Starship Stella (6/1), 5Sogno (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 263471
🎯 Longshots: 2637415
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Roger That Dana (8/5)
Place:3Pardo (9/2)
Show:8Richeztoo (3/1)
Other contenders:7Excuses (5/1), 4Willing One (6/1), 2Power From Above (15/1)
Rest of field:6Other Level (20/1), 1Fredericksburg (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 583742
🎯 Longshots: 58326741
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $31,000
Win:8Promenade Queen (3/1)
Place:7Shepping Naches (4/1)
Show:1Mala Amiga (5/1)
Other contenders:3Grand Heiress (6/1), 6Gustavia (8/1), 2Swell (6/1)
Rest of field:4Shea's A Devil (9/2), 5Fergusonson (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 871364
🎯 Longshots: 68713425
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $33,500
Win:5Noble Sky (2/1)
Place:3Dream Dancer (5/2)
Show:2Alinao Forever (7/2)
Other contenders:4Overseer (4/1), 6Operatnthunderbolt (10/1)
Rest of field:1Science Rockets (15/1), 7Rockingham Joe (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 532467
🎯 Longshots: 3576142
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $50,000
Win:1Lady Cross (9/2)
Place:6Street Queen (4/1)
Show:4Shimmerly (7/2)
Other contenders:2She's A Honey Pot (3/1), 3Seven Of Hearts (6/1), 5Saytara (8/1)
Rest of field:8Fully Exclusive (10/1), 9Bessan (15/1), 7Mustang Betty (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 621435
🎯 Longshots: 246153897
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $60,000
Win:3Great Venezuela (9/5)
Place:4Duboff (3/1)
Show:1Tiffany Gold (4/1)
Other contenders:7Vindicate Cha Cha (7/2), 6Fantastic Flame (8/1)
Rest of field:2Braganza (10/1), 5Secret Revenge (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 341762
🎯 Longshots: 3412765
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $54,000
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:6Practically Dark (5/2)
Place:5Jalapeno (3/1)
Show:3Roar Of The Beast (7/2)
Other contenders:8Guns And Coffee (6/1), 4Irish Adieu (5/1), 1Icelander (10/1)
Rest of field:2Top Level (12/1), 7Peppermint Man (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 653841
🎯 Longshots: 65318724
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:7Classic Genes (3/1)
Place:5Lady Of City (9/2)
Show:1Scottish Lass (7/2)
Other contenders:8Hot Rod Honey (5/1), 2Army Salute (6/1), 6Tutto Passa (8/1)
Rest of field:3Early Spark (8/1), 4Shelby Coupe (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 751826
🎯 Longshots: 71356824
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 11  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Saratoga Flash (7/2)
Place:11Degree Of Risk (4/1)
Show:6Dimanche Gras (9/2)
Other contenders:2Lights Of Broadway (5/1), 8Virginia City (12/1), 4Act A Fool (12/1), 3Battle Of Dover (8/1)
Rest of field:7Noble Tiger (10/1), 9Las Olas (20/1), 12Giftedbydesign (20/1), 5Honesto (30/1), 10Bold N Breezy (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1116283
🎯 Longshots: 111847365291210
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #11, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $25,000
Win:7Miss Silipo (2/1) 28% · fair 5-2
Place:5Our Perfect Amanda (7/2) 25% · fair 3-1
Show:4I'm Chill (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -30%
Other contenders:6Decisive Maiara (5/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -33%, 3Chrissy's Dream (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 9Loyalist (15/1) 5% · fair 19-1
Rest of field:1Sista Sol (20/1) 3% · fair 36-1 underlay -44%, 2Via Via Via (10/1) 2% · fair 55-1 underlay -82%, 8Shamrock Queen (20/1) 1% · fair 229-2 underlay -83%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Miss Silipo — 27.7% win probability, morning line 2/1Miss Silipo27.7% ◀Our Perfect Amanda — 25.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Our Perfect Amanda25.0%I'M Chill — 15.0% win probability, morning line 4/1I'M Chill15.0%Decisive Maiara — 11.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Decisive Maiara11.8%Chrissy'S Dream — 10.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Chrissy'S Dream10.2%Loyalist — 5.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Loyalist5.0%Sista Sol — 2.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Sista Sol2.7%Via Via Via — 1.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Via Via Via1.8%Shamrock Queen — 0.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Shamrock Queen0.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Miss Silipo27.7%2/1
Our Perfect Amanda25.0%3.5/1
I'M Chill15.0%4/1
Decisive Maiara11.8%5/1
Chrissy'S Dream10.2%8/1
Loyalist5.0%15/1
Sista Sol2.7%20/1
Via Via Via1.8%10/1
Shamrock Queen0.9%20/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMiss Silipo: model 27.7% vs market 26.0% (+1.7 points)Miss Silipo+1.7Our Perfect Amanda: model 25.0% vs market 17.3% (+7.6 points)Our Perfect Amanda+7.6I'M Chill: model 15.0% vs market 15.6% (-0.6 points)I'M Chill-0.6Decisive Maiara: model 11.8% vs market 13.0% (-1.2 points)Decisive Maiara-1.2Chrissy'S Dream: model 10.2% vs market 8.7% (+1.5 points)Chrissy'S Dream+1.5Loyalist: model 5.0% vs market 4.9% (+0.1 points)Loyalist+0.1Sista Sol: model 2.7% vs market 3.7% (-1.0 points)Sista Sol-1.0Via Via Via: model 1.8% vs market 7.1% (-5.3 points)Via Via Via-5.3Shamrock Queen: model 0.9% vs market 3.7% (-2.8 points)Shamrock Queen-2.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Miss Silipo27.7%26.0%+1.7
Our Perfect Amanda25.0%17.3%+7.6
I'M Chill15.0%15.6%-0.6
Decisive Maiara11.8%13.0%-1.2
Chrissy'S Dream10.2%8.7%+1.5
Loyalist5.0%4.9%+0.1
Sista Sol2.7%3.7%-1.0
Via Via Via1.8%7.1%-5.3
Shamrock Queen0.9%3.7%-2.8
🌧️ Off-track: 754632
🎯 Longshots: 754963218
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,000
Win:7Finest Gamble (9/5) 33% · fair 2-1
Place:2Sherman Fury (7/2) 21% · fair 7-2
Show:4Magic Heart (4/1) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -37%
Other contenders:8Esperanzito (6/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -46%, 3Tapstick (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -30%, 1Tall Story (10/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -31%
Rest of field:6Complexed (15/1) 5% · fair 17-1, 5David Pepperman (8/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -65%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Finest Gamble — 33.0% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Finest Gamble33.0% ◀Sherman Fury — 21.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Sherman Fury21.1%Magic Heart — 13.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Magic Heart13.6%Esperanzito — 8.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Esperanzito8.2%Tapstick — 8.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Tapstick8.0%Tall Story — 6.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Tall Story6.5%Complexed — 5.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Complexed5.5%David Pepperman — 4.2% win probability, morning line 8/1David Pepperman4.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Finest Gamble33.0%1.8/1
Sherman Fury21.1%3.5/1
Magic Heart13.6%4/1
Esperanzito8.2%6/1
Tapstick8.0%8/1
Tall Story6.5%10/1
Complexed5.5%15/1
David Pepperman4.2%8/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherFinest Gamble: model 33.0% vs market 27.5% (+5.4 points)Finest Gamble+5.4Sherman Fury: model 21.1% vs market 17.1% (+4.0 points)Sherman Fury+4.0Magic Heart: model 13.6% vs market 15.4% (-1.9 points)Magic Heart-1.9Esperanzito: model 8.2% vs market 11.0% (-2.8 points)Esperanzito-2.8Tapstick: model 8.0% vs market 8.6% (-0.5 points)Tapstick-0.5Tall Story: model 6.5% vs market 7.0% (-0.5 points)Tall Story-0.5Complexed: model 5.5% vs market 4.8% (+0.7 points)Complexed+0.7David Pepperman: model 4.2% vs market 8.6% (-4.4 points)David Pepperman-4.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Finest Gamble33.0%27.5%+5.4
Sherman Fury21.1%17.1%+4.0
Magic Heart13.6%15.4%-1.9
Esperanzito8.2%11.0%-2.8
Tapstick8.0%8.6%-0.5
Tall Story6.5%7.0%-0.5
Complexed5.5%4.8%+0.7
David Pepperman4.2%8.6%-4.4
🌧️ Off-track: 724835
🎯 Longshots: 71365248
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #4, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $50,000
Win:2Starship Patriot (2/1) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:4Delightful Diva (5/1) 19% · fair 4-1
Show:6Extra Sugar (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -26%
Other contenders:7Caramel Blue (6/1) 13% · fair 7-1, 3Cat's Meow (4/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -45%
Rest of field:1Starship Stella (6/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -62%, 5Sogno (12/1) 3% · fair 39-1 underlay -69%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Starship Patriot — 29.9% win probability, morning line 2/1Starship Patriot29.9% ◀Delightful Diva — 19.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Delightful Diva19.2%Extra Sugar — 17.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Extra Sugar17.5%Caramel Blue — 12.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Caramel Blue12.8%Cat'S Meow — 12.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Cat'S Meow12.1%Starship Stella — 6.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Starship Stella6.0%Sogno — 2.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Sogno2.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Starship Patriot29.9%2/1
Delightful Diva19.2%5/1
Extra Sugar17.5%3.5/1
Caramel Blue12.8%6/1
Cat'S Meow12.1%4/1
Starship Stella6.0%6/1
Sogno2.5%12/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherStarship Patriot: model 29.9% vs market 25.9% (+3.9 points)Starship Patriot+3.9Delightful Diva: model 19.2% vs market 13.0% (+6.2 points)Delightful Diva+6.2Extra Sugar: model 17.5% vs market 17.3% (+0.2 points)Extra Sugar+0.2Caramel Blue: model 12.8% vs market 11.1% (+1.7 points)Caramel Blue+1.7Cat'S Meow: model 12.1% vs market 15.6% (-3.5 points)Cat'S Meow-3.5Starship Stella: model 6.0% vs market 11.1% (-5.1 points)Starship Stella-5.1Sogno: model 2.5% vs market 6.0% (-3.5 points)Sogno-3.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Starship Patriot29.9%25.9%+3.9
Delightful Diva19.2%13.0%+6.2
Extra Sugar17.5%17.3%+0.2
Caramel Blue12.8%11.1%+1.7
Cat'S Meow12.1%15.6%-3.5
Starship Stella6.0%11.1%-5.1
Sogno2.5%6.0%-3.5
🌧️ Off-track: 264371
🎯 Longshots: 2637415
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,000
Win:5Roger That Dana (8/5) 39% · fair 3-2
Place:3Pardo (9/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:8Richeztoo (3/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -35%
Other contenders:7Excuses (5/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -50%, 4Willing One (6/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -54%, 2Power From Above (15/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -41%
Rest of field:6Other Level (20/1) 2% · fair 40-1 underlay -50%, 1Fredericksburg (30/1) 1% · fair 120-1 underlay -75%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Roger That Dana — 38.8% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Roger That Dana38.8% ◀Pardo — 20.2% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Pardo20.2%Richeztoo — 17.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Richeztoo17.8%Excuses — 9.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Excuses9.1%Willing One — 7.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Willing One7.1%Power From Above — 3.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Power From Above3.8%Other Level — 2.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Other Level2.5%Fredericksburg — 0.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Fredericksburg0.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Roger That Dana38.8%1.6/1
Pardo20.2%4.5/1
Richeztoo17.8%3/1
Excuses9.1%5/1
Willing One7.1%6/1
Power From Above3.8%15/1
Other Level2.5%20/1
Fredericksburg0.8%30/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRoger That Dana: model 38.8% vs market 30.3% (+8.4 points)Roger That Dana+8.4Pardo: model 20.2% vs market 14.3% (+5.8 points)Pardo+5.8Richeztoo: model 17.8% vs market 19.7% (-1.9 points)Richeztoo-1.9Excuses: model 9.1% vs market 13.1% (-4.0 points)Excuses-4.0Willing One: model 7.1% vs market 11.3% (-4.1 points)Willing One-4.1Power From Above: model 3.8% vs market 4.9% (-1.1 points)Power From Above-1.1Other Level: model 2.5% vs market 3.8% (-1.3 points)Other Level-1.3Fredericksburg: model 0.8% vs market 2.5% (-1.7 points)Fredericksburg-1.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Roger That Dana38.8%30.3%+8.4
Pardo20.2%14.3%+5.8
Richeztoo17.8%19.7%-1.9
Excuses9.1%13.1%-4.0
Willing One7.1%11.3%-4.1
Power From Above3.8%4.9%-1.1
Other Level2.5%3.8%-1.3
Fredericksburg0.8%2.5%-1.7
🌧️ Off-track: 583742
🎯 Longshots: 58326741
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $31,000
Win:7Shepping Naches (4/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Place:8Promenade Queen (3/1) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -41%
Show:6Gustavia (8/1) 14% · fair 6-1 overlay +33%
Other contenders:1Mala Amiga (5/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 3Grand Heiress (6/1) 13% · fair 7-1, 4Shea's A Devil (9/2) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -60%
Rest of field:2Swell (6/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -53%, 5Fergusonson (12/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -39%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Shepping Naches — 23.0% win probability, morning line 4/1Shepping Naches23.0% ◀Promenade Queen — 16.4% win probability, morning line 3/1Promenade Queen16.4%Gustavia — 14.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Gustavia14.2%Mala Amiga — 13.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Mala Amiga13.4%Grand Heiress — 12.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Grand Heiress12.8%Shea'S A Devil — 8.1% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Shea'S A Devil8.1%Swell — 7.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Swell7.2%Fergusonson — 4.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Fergusonson4.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Shepping Naches23.0%4/1
Promenade Queen16.4%3/1
Gustavia14.2%8/1
Mala Amiga13.4%5/1
Grand Heiress12.8%6/1
Shea'S A Devil8.1%4.5/1
Swell7.2%6/1
Fergusonson4.8%12/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherShepping Naches: model 23.0% vs market 15.7% (+7.3 points)Shepping Naches+7.3Promenade Queen: model 16.4% vs market 19.7% (-3.3 points)Promenade Queen-3.3Gustavia: model 14.2% vs market 8.7% (+5.5 points)Gustavia+5.5Mala Amiga: model 13.4% vs market 13.1% (+0.3 points)Mala Amiga+0.3Grand Heiress: model 12.8% vs market 11.2% (+1.6 points)Grand Heiress+1.6Shea'S A Devil: model 8.1% vs market 14.3% (-6.2 points)Shea'S A Devil-6.2Swell: model 7.2% vs market 11.2% (-4.0 points)Swell-4.0Fergusonson: model 4.8% vs market 6.0% (-1.2 points)Fergusonson-1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Shepping Naches23.0%15.7%+7.3
Promenade Queen16.4%19.7%-3.3
Gustavia14.2%8.7%+5.5
Mala Amiga13.4%13.1%+0.3
Grand Heiress12.8%11.2%+1.6
Shea'S A Devil8.1%14.3%-6.2
Swell7.2%11.2%-4.0
Fergusonson4.8%6.0%-1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 781364
🎯 Longshots: 68713425
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $33,500
Win:5Noble Sky (2/1) 33% · fair 2-1
Place:3Dream Dancer (5/2) 31% · fair 2-1
Show:2Alinao Forever (7/2) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -51%
Other contenders:4Overseer (4/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -50%, 6Operatnthunderbolt (10/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -43%
Rest of field:1Science Rockets (15/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -36%, 7Rockingham Joe (10/1) 4% · fair 27-1 underlay -63%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Noble Sky — 32.5% win probability, morning line 2/1Noble Sky32.5% ◀Dream Dancer — 31.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Dream Dancer31.2%Alinao Forever — 12.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Alinao Forever12.2%Overseer — 11.0% win probability, morning line 4/1Overseer11.0%Operatnthunderbolt — 5.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Operatnthunderbolt5.4%Science Rockets — 4.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Science Rockets4.1%Rockingham Joe — 3.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Rockingham Joe3.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Noble Sky32.5%2/1
Dream Dancer31.2%2.5/1
Alinao Forever12.2%3.5/1
Overseer11.0%4/1
Operatnthunderbolt5.4%10/1
Science Rockets4.1%15/1
Rockingham Joe3.6%10/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherNoble Sky: model 32.5% vs market 25.9% (+6.6 points)Noble Sky+6.6Dream Dancer: model 31.2% vs market 22.2% (+9.0 points)Dream Dancer+9.0Alinao Forever: model 12.2% vs market 17.3% (-5.1 points)Alinao Forever-5.1Overseer: model 11.0% vs market 15.6% (-4.5 points)Overseer-4.5Operatnthunderbolt: model 5.4% vs market 7.1% (-1.7 points)Operatnthunderbolt-1.7Science Rockets: model 4.1% vs market 4.9% (-0.7 points)Science Rockets-0.7Rockingham Joe: model 3.6% vs market 7.1% (-3.5 points)Rockingham Joe-3.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Noble Sky32.5%25.9%+6.6
Dream Dancer31.2%22.2%+9.0
Alinao Forever12.2%17.3%-5.1
Overseer11.0%15.6%-4.5
Operatnthunderbolt5.4%7.1%-1.7
Science Rockets4.1%4.9%-0.7
Rockingham Joe3.6%7.1%-3.5
🌧️ Off-track: 532467
🎯 Longshots: 3576142
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $50,000
Win:1Lady Cross (9/2) 27% · fair 3-1 overlay +63%
Place:6Street Queen (4/1) 26% · fair 3-1 overlay +40%
Show:4Shimmerly (7/2) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -61%
Other contenders:5Saytara (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 2She's A Honey Pot (3/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -70%, 3Seven Of Hearts (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -43%
Rest of field:9Bessan (15/1) 5% · fair 35-2, 8Fully Exclusive (10/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -53%, 7Mustang Betty (30/1) 0% · fair 413-2 underlay -85%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Lady Cross — 26.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Lady Cross26.6% ◀Street Queen — 25.9% win probability, morning line 4/1Street Queen25.9%Shimmerly — 10.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Shimmerly10.0%Saytara — 9.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Saytara9.3%She'S A Honey Pot — 9.2% win probability, morning line 3/1She'S A Honey Pot9.2%Seven Of Hearts — 8.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Seven Of Hearts8.7%Bessan — 5.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Bessan5.3%Fully Exclusive — 4.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Fully Exclusive4.5%Mustang Betty — 0.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Mustang Betty0.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Lady Cross26.6%4.5/1
Street Queen25.9%4/1
Shimmerly10.0%3.5/1
Saytara9.3%8/1
She'S A Honey Pot9.2%3/1
Seven Of Hearts8.7%6/1
Bessan5.3%15/1
Fully Exclusive4.5%10/1
Mustang Betty0.5%30/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherLady Cross: model 26.6% vs market 14.1% (+12.6 points)Lady Cross+12.6Street Queen: model 25.9% vs market 15.5% (+10.5 points)Street Queen+10.5Shimmerly: model 10.0% vs market 17.2% (-7.2 points)Shimmerly-7.2Saytara: model 9.3% vs market 8.6% (+0.7 points)Saytara+0.7She'S A Honey Pot: model 9.2% vs market 19.3% (-10.2 points)She'S A Honey Pot-10.2Seven Of Hearts: model 8.7% vs market 11.0% (-2.4 points)Seven Of Hearts-2.4Bessan: model 5.3% vs market 4.8% (+0.5 points)Bessan+0.5Fully Exclusive: model 4.5% vs market 7.0% (-2.5 points)Fully Exclusive-2.5Mustang Betty: model 0.5% vs market 2.5% (-2.0 points)Mustang Betty-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Lady Cross26.6%14.1%+12.6
Street Queen25.9%15.5%+10.5
Shimmerly10.0%17.2%-7.2
Saytara9.3%8.6%+0.7
She'S A Honey Pot9.2%19.3%-10.2
Seven Of Hearts8.7%11.0%-2.4
Bessan5.3%4.8%+0.5
Fully Exclusive4.5%7.0%-2.5
Mustang Betty0.5%2.5%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 612435
🎯 Longshots: 246153897
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $60,000
Win:3Great Venezuela (9/5) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -35%
Place:1Tiffany Gold (4/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Show:7Vindicate Cha Cha (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:4Duboff (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -37%, 2Braganza (10/1) 7% · fair 25-2
Rest of field:6Fantastic Flame (8/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -47%, 5Secret Revenge (20/1) 1% · fair 69-1 underlay -71%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Great Venezuela — 26.5% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Great Venezuela26.5% ◀Tiffany Gold — 23.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Tiffany Gold23.3%Vindicate Cha Cha — 17.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Vindicate Cha Cha17.9%Duboff — 17.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Duboff17.3%Braganza — 7.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Braganza7.3%Fantastic Flame — 6.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Fantastic Flame6.2%Secret Revenge — 1.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Secret Revenge1.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Great Venezuela26.5%1.8/1
Tiffany Gold23.3%4/1
Vindicate Cha Cha17.9%3.5/1
Duboff17.3%3/1
Braganza7.3%10/1
Fantastic Flame6.2%8/1
Secret Revenge1.4%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGreat Venezuela: model 26.5% vs market 27.9% (-1.5 points)Great Venezuela-1.5Tiffany Gold: model 23.3% vs market 15.6% (+7.7 points)Tiffany Gold+7.7Vindicate Cha Cha: model 17.9% vs market 17.4% (+0.5 points)Vindicate Cha Cha+0.5Duboff: model 17.3% vs market 19.5% (-2.2 points)Duboff-2.2Braganza: model 7.3% vs market 7.1% (+0.2 points)Braganza+0.2Fantastic Flame: model 6.2% vs market 8.7% (-2.5 points)Fantastic Flame-2.5Secret Revenge: model 1.4% vs market 3.7% (-2.3 points)Secret Revenge-2.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Great Venezuela26.5%27.9%-1.5
Tiffany Gold23.3%15.6%+7.7
Vindicate Cha Cha17.9%17.4%+0.5
Duboff17.3%19.5%-2.2
Braganza7.3%7.1%+0.2
Fantastic Flame6.2%8.7%-2.5
Secret Revenge1.4%3.7%-2.3
🌧️ Off-track: 314762
🎯 Longshots: 3412765
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $54,000
Win:6Practically Dark (5/2) 33% · fair 2-1
Place:5Jalapeno (3/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Show:8Guns And Coffee (6/1) 15% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:3Roar Of The Beast (7/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -43%, 4Irish Adieu (5/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -64%, 1Icelander (10/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -58%
Rest of field:2Top Level (12/1) 2% · fair 41-1 underlay -71%, 7Peppermint Man (20/1) 1% · fair 143-2 underlay -72%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Practically Dark — 33.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Practically Dark33.2% ◀Jalapeno — 23.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Jalapeno23.3%Guns And Coffee — 15.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Guns And Coffee15.2%Roar Of The Beast — 13.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Roar Of The Beast13.9%Irish Adieu — 6.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Irish Adieu6.7%Icelander — 4.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Icelander4.1%Top Level — 2.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Top Level2.4%Peppermint Man — 1.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Peppermint Man1.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Practically Dark33.2%2.5/1
Jalapeno23.3%3/1
Guns And Coffee15.2%6/1
Roar Of The Beast13.9%3.5/1
Irish Adieu6.7%5/1
Icelander4.1%10/1
Top Level2.4%12/1
Peppermint Man1.4%20/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherPractically Dark: model 33.2% vs market 22.3% (+10.9 points)Practically Dark+10.9Jalapeno: model 23.3% vs market 19.5% (+3.8 points)Jalapeno+3.8Guns And Coffee: model 15.2% vs market 11.1% (+4.0 points)Guns And Coffee+4.0Roar Of The Beast: model 13.9% vs market 17.3% (-3.4 points)Roar Of The Beast-3.4Irish Adieu: model 6.7% vs market 13.0% (-6.3 points)Irish Adieu-6.3Icelander: model 4.1% vs market 7.1% (-3.0 points)Icelander-3.0Top Level: model 2.4% vs market 6.0% (-3.6 points)Top Level-3.6Peppermint Man: model 1.4% vs market 3.7% (-2.3 points)Peppermint Man-2.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Practically Dark33.2%22.3%+10.9
Jalapeno23.3%19.5%+3.8
Guns And Coffee15.2%11.1%+4.0
Roar Of The Beast13.9%17.3%-3.4
Irish Adieu6.7%13.0%-6.3
Icelander4.1%7.1%-3.0
Top Level2.4%6.0%-3.6
Peppermint Man1.4%3.7%-2.3
🌧️ Off-track: 653841
🎯 Longshots: 65318724
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #8, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:7Classic Genes (3/1) 24% · fair 7-2
Place:5Lady Of City (9/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:8Hot Rod Honey (5/1) 16% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:1Scottish Lass (7/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -36%, 2Army Salute (6/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -47%, 6Tutto Passa (8/1) 8% · fair 25-2 underlay -35%
Rest of field:3Early Spark (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -41%, 4Shelby Coupe (10/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -54%
Race 10 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Classic Genes — 23.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Classic Genes23.5% ◀Lady Of City — 18.4% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Lady Of City18.4%Hot Rod Honey — 15.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Hot Rod Honey15.8%Scottish Lass — 15.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Scottish Lass15.4%Army Salute — 8.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Army Salute8.1%Tutto Passa — 7.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Tutto Passa7.5%Early Spark — 6.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Early Spark6.9%Shelby Coupe — 4.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Shelby Coupe4.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Classic Genes23.5%3/1
Lady Of City18.4%4.5/1
Hot Rod Honey15.8%5/1
Scottish Lass15.4%3.5/1
Army Salute8.1%6/1
Tutto Passa7.5%8/1
Early Spark6.9%8/1
Shelby Coupe4.4%10/1
Race 10 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherClassic Genes: model 23.5% vs market 19.6% (+3.9 points)Classic Genes+3.9Lady Of City: model 18.4% vs market 14.2% (+4.1 points)Lady Of City+4.1Hot Rod Honey: model 15.8% vs market 13.1% (+2.8 points)Hot Rod Honey+2.8Scottish Lass: model 15.4% vs market 17.4% (-2.0 points)Scottish Lass-2.0Army Salute: model 8.1% vs market 11.2% (-3.1 points)Army Salute-3.1Tutto Passa: model 7.5% vs market 8.7% (-1.2 points)Tutto Passa-1.2Early Spark: model 6.9% vs market 8.7% (-1.8 points)Early Spark-1.8Shelby Coupe: model 4.4% vs market 7.1% (-2.7 points)Shelby Coupe-2.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Classic Genes23.5%19.6%+3.9
Lady Of City18.4%14.2%+4.1
Hot Rod Honey15.8%13.1%+2.8
Scottish Lass15.4%17.4%-2.0
Army Salute8.1%11.2%-3.1
Tutto Passa7.5%8.7%-1.2
Early Spark6.9%8.7%-1.8
Shelby Coupe4.4%7.1%-2.7
🌧️ Off-track: 751826
🎯 Longshots: 71356824
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #8, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 11  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:11Degree Of Risk (4/1) 26% · fair 3-1 overlay +44%
Place:1Saratoga Flash (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:6Dimanche Gras (9/2) 15% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:2Lights Of Broadway (5/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -42%, 4Act A Fool (12/1) 7% · fair 13-1, 8Virginia City (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 3Battle Of Dover (8/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -59%
Rest of field:7Noble Tiger (10/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -54%, 5Honesto (30/1) 2% · fair 41-1 underlay -27%, 12Giftedbydesign (20/1) 2% · fair 42-1 underlay -52%, 9Las Olas (20/1) 2% · fair 113-2 underlay -65%, 10Bold N Breezy (30/1) 1% · fair 163-1 underlay -82%
Race 11 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Degree Of Risk — 26.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Degree Of Risk26.4% ◀Saratoga Flash — 18.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Saratoga Flash18.0%Dimanche Gras — 14.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Dimanche Gras14.6%Lights Of Broadway — 10.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Lights Of Broadway10.5%Act A Fool — 7.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Act A Fool7.1%Virginia City — 7.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Virginia City7.0%Battle Of Dover — 4.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Battle Of Dover4.9%Noble Tiger — 4.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Noble Tiger4.4%Honesto — 2.4% win probability, morning line 30/1Honesto2.4%Giftedbydesign — 2.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Giftedbydesign2.3%Las Olas — 1.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Las Olas1.7%Bold N Breezy — 0.6% win probability, morning line 30/1Bold N Breezy0.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Degree Of Risk26.4%4/1
Saratoga Flash18.0%3.5/1
Dimanche Gras14.6%4.5/1
Lights Of Broadway10.5%5/1
Act A Fool7.1%12/1
Virginia City7.0%12/1
Battle Of Dover4.9%8/1
Noble Tiger4.4%10/1
Honesto2.4%30/1
Giftedbydesign2.3%20/1
Las Olas1.7%20/1
Bold N Breezy0.6%30/1
Race 11 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDegree Of Risk: model 26.4% vs market 15.5% (+10.9 points)Degree Of Risk+10.9Saratoga Flash: model 18.0% vs market 17.3% (+0.7 points)Saratoga Flash+0.7Dimanche Gras: model 14.6% vs market 14.1% (+0.5 points)Dimanche Gras+0.5Lights Of Broadway: model 10.5% vs market 13.0% (-2.5 points)Lights Of Broadway-2.5Act A Fool: model 7.1% vs market 6.0% (+1.2 points)Act A Fool+1.2Virginia City: model 7.0% vs market 6.0% (+1.0 points)Virginia City+1.0Battle Of Dover: model 4.9% vs market 8.6% (-3.7 points)Battle Of Dover-3.7Noble Tiger: model 4.4% vs market 7.1% (-2.7 points)Noble Tiger-2.7Honesto: model 2.4% vs market 2.5% (-0.1 points)Honesto-0.1Giftedbydesign: model 2.3% vs market 3.7% (-1.4 points)Giftedbydesign-1.4Las Olas: model 1.7% vs market 3.7% (-2.0 points)Las Olas-2.0Bold N Breezy: model 0.6% vs market 2.5% (-1.9 points)Bold N Breezy-1.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Degree Of Risk26.4%15.5%+10.9
Saratoga Flash18.0%17.3%+0.7
Dimanche Gras14.6%14.1%+0.5
Lights Of Broadway10.5%13.0%-2.5
Act A Fool7.1%6.0%+1.2
Virginia City7.0%6.0%+1.0
Battle Of Dover4.9%8.6%-3.7
Noble Tiger4.4%7.1%-2.7
Honesto2.4%2.5%-0.1
Giftedbydesign2.3%3.7%-1.4
Las Olas1.7%3.7%-2.0
Bold N Breezy0.6%2.5%-1.9
🌧️ Off-track: 1116234
🎯 Longshots: 111847365291210
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #1, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $25,000
Win:7Miss Silipo (2/1)
Place:5Our Perfect Amanda (7/2)
Show:6Decisive Maiara (5/1)
Other contenders:4I'm Chill (4/1), 9Loyalist (15/1), 3Chrissy's Dream (8/1)
Rest of field:2Via Via Via (10/1), 1Sista Sol (20/1), 8Shamrock Queen (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 754632
🎯 Longshots: 754963218
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,000
Win:7Finest Gamble (9/5)
Place:2Sherman Fury (7/2)
Show:4Magic Heart (4/1)
Other contenders:5David Pepperman (8/1), 8Esperanzito (6/1), 3Tapstick (8/1)
Rest of field:1Tall Story (10/1), 6Complexed (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 724853
🎯 Longshots: 71365248
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $50,000
Win:2Starship Patriot (2/1)
Place:4Delightful Diva (5/1)
Show:6Extra Sugar (7/2)
Other contenders:7Caramel Blue (6/1), 3Cat's Meow (4/1)
Rest of field:1Starship Stella (6/1), 5Sogno (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 264371
🎯 Longshots: 2637415
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,000
Win:5Roger That Dana (8/5)
Place:3Pardo (9/2)
Show:8Richeztoo (3/1)
Other contenders:7Excuses (5/1), 4Willing One (6/1), 2Power From Above (15/1)
Rest of field:6Other Level (20/1), 1Fredericksburg (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 583742
🎯 Longshots: 58326741
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $31,000
Win:8Promenade Queen (3/1)
Place:7Shepping Naches (4/1)
Show:1Mala Amiga (5/1)
Other contenders:3Grand Heiress (6/1), 4Shea's A Devil (9/2), 6Gustavia (8/1)
Rest of field:2Swell (6/1), 5Fergusonson (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 871432
🎯 Longshots: 68713425
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $33,500
Win:3Dream Dancer (5/2)
Place:5Noble Sky (2/1)
Show:2Alinao Forever (7/2)
Other contenders:4Overseer (4/1), 7Rockingham Joe (10/1)
Rest of field:6Operatnthunderbolt (10/1), 1Science Rockets (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 532476
🎯 Longshots: 3576142
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $50,000
Win:6Street Queen (4/1)
Place:1Lady Cross (9/2)
Show:5Saytara (8/1)
Other contenders:3Seven Of Hearts (6/1), 2She's A Honey Pot (3/1), 4Shimmerly (7/2)
Rest of field:9Bessan (15/1), 8Fully Exclusive (10/1), 7Mustang Betty (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 264135
🎯 Longshots: 246153897
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $60,000
Win:3Great Venezuela (9/5)
Place:4Duboff (3/1)
Show:7Vindicate Cha Cha (7/2)
Other contenders:1Tiffany Gold (4/1), 6Fantastic Flame (8/1)
Rest of field:2Braganza (10/1), 5Secret Revenge (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 347162
🎯 Longshots: 3412765
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $54,000
Win:5Jalapeno (3/1)
Place:6Practically Dark (5/2)
Show:3Roar Of The Beast (7/2)
Other contenders:8Guns And Coffee (6/1), 4Irish Adieu (5/1), 1Icelander (10/1)
Rest of field:2Top Level (12/1), 7Peppermint Man (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 653481
🎯 Longshots: 65318724
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:7Classic Genes (3/1)
Place:1Scottish Lass (7/2)
Show:8Hot Rod Honey (5/1)
Other contenders:5Lady Of City (9/2), 2Army Salute (6/1), 3Early Spark (8/1)
Rest of field:6Tutto Passa (8/1), 4Shelby Coupe (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 715823
🎯 Longshots: 71356824
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #8, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 11  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:1Saratoga Flash (7/2)
Place:11Degree Of Risk (4/1)
Show:6Dimanche Gras (9/2)
Other contenders:3Battle Of Dover (8/1), 8Virginia City (12/1), 2Lights Of Broadway (5/1), 4Act A Fool (12/1)
Rest of field:7Noble Tiger (10/1), 5Honesto (30/1), 12Giftedbydesign (20/1), 9Las Olas (20/1), 10Bold N Breezy (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1116237
🎯 Longshots: 111847365291210
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #11, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #7 over #5 ($1 straight; box #7-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #7, #6, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #7 over #2 ($1 straight; box #7-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #7, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #2 over #6 ($1 straight; box #2-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #3, #6, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #5 over #8 ($1 straight; box #5-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #3, #8, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #8 over #7 ($1 straight; box #8-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #8, #7, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #5 over #3 ($1 straight; box #5-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #5, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #2 over #6 ($1 straight; box #2-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #1, #5, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #1, #4, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #6 over #5 ($1 straight; box #6-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #6, #3, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 10AI Exacta: #7 over #1 ($1 straight; box #7-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #1, #8, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 11AI Exacta: #11 over #1 ($1 straight; box #11-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #11, #6, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.38 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.88 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
114Act A Fool12/1—9.4%+19.6%0.41%$0.41
TOTAL across 1 play:0.4%$0.41
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $25,000
Win:5Our Perfect Amanda (7/2)
Place:7Miss Silipo (2/1)
Show:6Decisive Maiara (5/1)
Other contenders:4I'm Chill (4/1), 9Loyalist (15/1), 3Chrissy's Dream (8/1)
Rest of field:2Via Via Via (10/1), 1Sista Sol (20/1), 8Shamrock Queen (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 754639
🎯 Longshots: 754963218
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,000
Win:7Finest Gamble (9/5)
Place:2Sherman Fury (7/2)
Show:1Tall Story (10/1)
Other contenders:4Magic Heart (4/1), 8Esperanzito (6/1), 3Tapstick (8/1)
Rest of field:5David Pepperman (8/1), 6Complexed (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 724813
🎯 Longshots: 71365248
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $50,000
Win:2Starship Patriot (2/1)
Place:6Extra Sugar (7/2)
Show:7Caramel Blue (6/1)
Other contenders:3Cat's Meow (4/1), 4Delightful Diva (5/1)
Rest of field:1Starship Stella (6/1), 5Sogno (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 263471
🎯 Longshots: 2637415
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,000
Win:5Roger That Dana (8/5)
Place:3Pardo (9/2)
Show:8Richeztoo (3/1)
Other contenders:7Excuses (5/1), 4Willing One (6/1), 2Power From Above (15/1)
Rest of field:6Other Level (20/1), 1Fredericksburg (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 583742
🎯 Longshots: 58326741
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $31,000
Win:8Promenade Queen (3/1)
Place:1Mala Amiga (5/1)
Show:7Shepping Naches (4/1)
Other contenders:3Grand Heiress (6/1), 6Gustavia (8/1), 4Shea's A Devil (9/2)
Rest of field:2Swell (6/1), 5Fergusonson (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 871346
🎯 Longshots: 68713425
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $33,500
Win:5Noble Sky (2/1)
Place:3Dream Dancer (5/2)
Show:7Rockingham Joe (10/1)
Other contenders:2Alinao Forever (7/2), 4Overseer (4/1)
Rest of field:1Science Rockets (15/1), 6Operatnthunderbolt (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 532476
🎯 Longshots: 3576142
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $50,000
Win:6Street Queen (4/1)
Place:1Lady Cross (9/2)
Show:3Seven Of Hearts (6/1)
Other contenders:4Shimmerly (7/2), 2She's A Honey Pot (3/1), 5Saytara (8/1)
Rest of field:9Bessan (15/1), 8Fully Exclusive (10/1), 7Mustang Betty (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 624135
🎯 Longshots: 246153897
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $60,000
Win:7Vindicate Cha Cha (7/2)
Place:4Duboff (3/1)
Show:3Great Venezuela (9/5)
Other contenders:1Tiffany Gold (4/1), 6Fantastic Flame (8/1)
Rest of field:2Braganza (10/1), 5Secret Revenge (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 347162
🎯 Longshots: 3412765
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $54,000
Win:5Jalapeno (3/1)
Place:3Roar Of The Beast (7/2)
Show:6Practically Dark (5/2)
Other contenders:4Irish Adieu (5/1), 8Guns And Coffee (6/1), 1Icelander (10/1)
Rest of field:2Top Level (12/1), 7Peppermint Man (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 563481
🎯 Longshots: 65318724
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:7Classic Genes (3/1)
Place:1Scottish Lass (7/2)
Show:5Lady Of City (9/2)
Other contenders:3Early Spark (8/1), 2Army Salute (6/1), 8Hot Rod Honey (5/1)
Rest of field:6Tutto Passa (8/1), 4Shelby Coupe (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 715283
🎯 Longshots: 71356824
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 11  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:11Degree Of Risk (4/1)
Place:1Saratoga Flash (7/2)
Show:6Dimanche Gras (9/2)
Other contenders:4Act A Fool (12/1), 2Lights Of Broadway (5/1), 3Battle Of Dover (8/1), 8Virginia City (12/1)
Rest of field:7Noble Tiger (10/1), 12Giftedbydesign (20/1), 5Honesto (30/1), 9Las Olas (20/1), 10Bold N Breezy (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1116234
🎯 Longshots: 111847365291210
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #1, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $25,000
Win:5Our Perfect Amanda (7/2)
Place:7Miss Silipo (2/1)
Show:6Decisive Maiara (5/1)
Other contenders:4I'm Chill (4/1), 3Chrissy's Dream (8/1), 9Loyalist (15/1)
Rest of field:1Sista Sol (20/1), 2Via Via Via (10/1), 8Shamrock Queen (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 754639
🎯 Longshots: 754963218
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,000
Win:2Sherman Fury (7/2)
Place:7Finest Gamble (9/5)
Show:4Magic Heart (4/1)
Other contenders:3Tapstick (8/1), 5David Pepperman (8/1), 6Complexed (15/1)
Rest of field:1Tall Story (10/1), 8Esperanzito (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 724835
🎯 Longshots: 71365248
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $50,000
Win:4Delightful Diva (5/1)
Place:3Cat's Meow (4/1)
Show:6Extra Sugar (7/2)
Other contenders:2Starship Patriot (2/1), 7Caramel Blue (6/1)
Rest of field:1Starship Stella (6/1), 5Sogno (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 263471
🎯 Longshots: 2637415
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,000
Win:5Roger That Dana (8/5)
Place:3Pardo (9/2)
Show:8Richeztoo (3/1)
Other contenders:7Excuses (5/1), 4Willing One (6/1), 2Power From Above (15/1)
Rest of field:6Other Level (20/1), 1Fredericksburg (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 583742
🎯 Longshots: 58326741
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #8, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $31,000
Win:1Mala Amiga (5/1)
Place:8Promenade Queen (3/1)
Show:7Shepping Naches (4/1)
Other contenders:6Gustavia (8/1), 2Swell (6/1), 3Grand Heiress (6/1)
Rest of field:4Shea's A Devil (9/2), 5Fergusonson (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 871423
🎯 Longshots: 68713425
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $33,500
Win:3Dream Dancer (5/2)
Place:5Noble Sky (2/1)
Show:2Alinao Forever (7/2)
Other contenders:4Overseer (4/1), 1Science Rockets (15/1)
Rest of field:7Rockingham Joe (10/1), 6Operatnthunderbolt (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 352476
🎯 Longshots: 3576142
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $50,000
Win:6Street Queen (4/1)
Place:1Lady Cross (9/2)
Show:5Saytara (8/1)
Other contenders:3Seven Of Hearts (6/1), 4Shimmerly (7/2), 2She's A Honey Pot (3/1)
Rest of field:9Bessan (15/1), 8Fully Exclusive (10/1), 7Mustang Betty (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 612435
🎯 Longshots: 246153897
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $60,000
Win:3Great Venezuela (9/5)
Place:1Tiffany Gold (4/1)
Show:4Duboff (3/1)
Other contenders:7Vindicate Cha Cha (7/2), 6Fantastic Flame (8/1)
Rest of field:2Braganza (10/1), 5Secret Revenge (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 341762
🎯 Longshots: 3412765
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $54,000
Win:5Jalapeno (3/1)
Place:6Practically Dark (5/2)
Show:3Roar Of The Beast (7/2)
Other contenders:8Guns And Coffee (6/1), 4Irish Adieu (5/1), 1Icelander (10/1)
Rest of field:2Top Level (12/1), 7Peppermint Man (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 653481
🎯 Longshots: 65318724
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:7Classic Genes (3/1)
Place:1Scottish Lass (7/2)
Show:8Hot Rod Honey (5/1)
Other contenders:5Lady Of City (9/2), 2Army Salute (6/1), 3Early Spark (8/1)
Rest of field:6Tutto Passa (8/1), 4Shelby Coupe (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 715823
🎯 Longshots: 71356824
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #8, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 11  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:1Saratoga Flash (7/2)
Place:11Degree Of Risk (4/1)
Show:6Dimanche Gras (9/2)
Other contenders:3Battle Of Dover (8/1), 2Lights Of Broadway (5/1), 4Act A Fool (12/1), 7Noble Tiger (10/1)
Rest of field:8Virginia City (12/1), 5Honesto (30/1), 9Las Olas (20/1), 12Giftedbydesign (20/1), 10Bold N Breezy (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1116237
🎯 Longshots: 111847365291210
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #11, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R2-4R2: #7,#2,#4 (68%) / R3: #2,#4,#6 (67%) / R4: #5,#3,#8 (77%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 35%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #5,#3,#8 (77%) / R5: #7,#8,#6 (54%) / R6: #5,#3 (64%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #7,#8,#6 (54%) / R6: #5,#3 (64%) / R7: #1,#6,#4 (63%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #5,#3 (64%) / R7: #1,#6,#4 (63%) / R8: #3,#1,#7 (68%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27%
Pick 4 R3-6R3: #2,#4,#6 (67%) / R4: #5,#3,#8 (77%) / R5: #7,#8,#6 (54%) / R6: #5,#3 (64%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17%
Pick 4 R6-9R6: #5,#3 (64%) / R7: #1,#6,#4 (63%) / R8: #3,#1,#7 (68%) / R9: #6,#5,#8 (72%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ACT A FOOLALINAO FOREVERARMY SALUTEBATTLE OF DOVERBESSAN
BRAGANZACARAMEL BLUECAT'S MEOWCHRISSY'S DREAMCLASSIC GENES
DAVID PEPPERMANDECISIVE MAIARADEGREE OF RISKDELIGHTFUL DIVADIMANCHE GRAS
DUBOFFEARLY SPARKESPERANZITOEXCUSESEXTRA SUGAR
FERGUSONSONFINEST GAMBLEFREDERICKSBURGFULLY EXCLUSIVEGIFTEDBYDESIGN
GREAT VENEZUELAGUNS AND COFFEEGUSTAVIAHONESTOHOT ROD HONEY
ICELANDERIRISH ADIEUJALAPENOLADY CROSSLADY OF CITY
LIGHTS OF BROADWAYLOYALISTMAGIC HEARTMALA AMIGAMISS SILIPO
NOBLE SKYNOBLE TIGEROPERATNTHUNDERBOLTOTHER LEVELOUR PERFECT AMANDA
PARDOPEPPERMINT MANPOWER FROM ABOVEPRACTICALLY DARKPROMENADE QUEEN
ROAR OF THE BEASTROCKINGHAM JOEROGER THAT DANASARATOGA FLASHSAYTARA
SCOTTISH LASSSECRET REVENGESEVEN OF HEARTSSHAMROCK QUEENSHE'S A HONEY POT
SHELBY COUPESHEPPING NACHESSHERMAN FURYSHIMMERLYSISTA SOL
STARSHIP PATRIOTSTARSHIP STELLASTREET QUEENSWELLTALL STORY
TIFFANY GOLDTOP LEVELTUTTO PASSAVIA VIA VIAVINDICATE CHA CHA
WILLING ONE

 


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