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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Gulfstream Park, October 30, 2026

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AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied

Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. In maiden races, where late money has the best record, Algo 2's morning pick follows the live betting favourite once the pool is open. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.

TrackRaceModelNew Top PickWhy
GPX4Model Algo 1#2 – Astrogem3 scratch(es)
GPX4Model Algo 2 (Ensemble)#2 – Astrogem3 scratch(es)
GPX4Model Algo 3 (Win Prob)#2 – Astrogem3 scratch(es)
GPX4Model Weight set 2#2 – Astrogem3 scratch(es)
GPX4Model Weight set 3#2 – Astrogem3 scratch(es)

Plays voided by scratches — these published value plays are officially scratched; win bets on them are refunds, so strike them from your card:

  • Trifecta play: GP Race 4 — Tulio (SCRATCHED)

Where the experts back our strongest pick today

In 5 of today's 10 races, the published handicappers landed on the same horse as Algo 2, our best-performing model. Over the last 90 days (3,707 graded races), the races where they agreed won 38.6% of the time against 30.3% where they did not.

Today's agreement races — GP 1, 2, 4, 7, 8.

Which horse the two agree on is part of Algo 2, included with Insider and above. The race numbers above are free to everyone: if you are playing these races, you now know the experts and our strongest model are pointing the same way.


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Gulfstream Park — win rate vs the experts

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 249 graded races at Gulfstream Park, 2026-08-15 to 2026-10-25.

0%11%23%34%45%Our top pick: 36.1% from 249 racesOur top pick36.1%Expert consensus pick: 33.7% from 249 racesExpert consensus pick33.7%

The consensus is the weighted top pick of 25+ published handicappers. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick36.1%249
Expert consensus pick33.7%249
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,500
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Grant Me Peace (5/2)
Place:4Jenlovestoshop (4/1)
Show:10Starship Excelsior (9/2)
Other contenders:5Irish Tale (10/1), 2Gustavia (8/1), 9Causeshzprecocious (8/1)
Rest of field:3Vino (10/1), 7Magic Mini (15/1), 6Hattie G (8/1), 8Olympic Kitty (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1410529
🎯 Longshots: 14105293768
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #10, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Zozan (9/5)
Place:4King Of Hollywood (5/2)
Show:3Seaver (9/2)
Other contenders:2Swashbuckle (5/1), 7Noble Prince (10/1), 1Eton (10/1)
Rest of field:6Never Say Never (15/1), 8Fredericksburg (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 543271
🎯 Longshots: 51647328
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $31,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Daunting (9/5)
Place:1Barjouj (2/1)
Show:3Captain Karter (9/2)
Other contenders:7Star Of The Gun (8/1), 4On The Rox (8/1)
Rest of field:5Charcoal Blue (6/1), 2E Z Shopping (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 613745
🎯 Longshots: 6173452
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:7Tulio (2/1)
Place:2Astrogem (5/2)
Show:3Subtle Sir (7/2)
Other contenders:5Our Willow (4/1), 4Slew De Oro (15/1), 6Mischief Holiday (15/1)
Rest of field:8Don't Tell Bert (12/1), 1Power Royal (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 723546
🎯 Longshots: 72453681
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Sofocles (9/5)
Place:7Carcone (2/1)
Show:1Araucano (6/1)
Other contenders:2El Muheet (4/1), 6Santal (10/1)
Rest of field:4Valiant Winter (10/1), 5Love Hate (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 372164
🎯 Longshots: 3745612
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Sucker For Looks (5/2)
Place:9Touch Of Honor (5/1)
Show:11Smoke (6/1)
Other contenders:10Life's Mystery (9/2), 4Liberty Rings (8/1), 6Karolina Pharoah (10/1), 8Boots (15/1)
Rest of field:12Casablanca Queen (8/1), 2Hammy (20/1), 3Kissed By A Rose (20/1), 7Philipina A (30/1), 1Chica Feliz (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 59111046
🎯 Longshots: 512410689112371
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #9, #11, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $28,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7Mish (1/1)
Place:1Final Payment (6/1)
Show:4Ajaayb (3/1)
Other contenders:5Proud American (4/1), 3Captain Eddie (10/1)
Rest of field:2He Be Hoppin (20/1), 6I'm Tuff Enough (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 741532
🎯 Longshots: 7314256
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $33,500
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7New Life (3/1)
Place:3Tell Me Some Lies (2/1)
Show:6Elenique (8/1)
Other contenders:5Lady River Lily (9/2), 2Tape Runner (8/1), 1More Applause (10/1)
Rest of field:9Del Mar Sunrise (8/1), 4Nashville Slew (20/1), 8Starship Elation (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 375621
🎯 Longshots: 673124895
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $54,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7Al Loud (2/1)
Place:5Irish Adieu (3/1)
Show:1All To Win (5/2)
Other contenders:2Zeus's Echo (5/1), 4Junction Road (8/1)
Rest of field:6Khon Han (10/1), 3Radical Rhetoric (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 715246
🎯 Longshots: 7514632
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Day To Day (2/1)
Place:2Pure Eloquence (5/2)
Show:3Striking Finale (8/1)
Other contenders:7Come On Teesha (5/1), 1Bayou Brigid (10/1), 5Little Georgie (20/1)
Rest of field:9Cryingintherain (10/1), 4Bert's Knoty Girl (15/1), 6Super Sienna (12/1), 10Rogue Runner (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 823719
🎯 Longshots: 83127596410
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,500
Win:1Grant Me Peace (5/2) 24% · fair 3-1
Place:4Jenlovestoshop (4/1) 24% · fair 3-1
Show:5Irish Tale (10/1) 13% · fair 13-2 overlay +52%
Other contenders:10Starship Excelsior (9/2) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -53%, 2Gustavia (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -29%, 9Causeshzprecocious (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -41%
Rest of field:3Vino (10/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -37%, 6Hattie G (8/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -69%, 7Magic Mini (15/1) 3% · fair 30-1 underlay -50%, 8Olympic Kitty (20/1) 2% · fair 50-1 underlay -60%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Grant Me Peace — 23.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Grant Me Peace23.7% ◀Jenlovestoshop — 23.7% win probability, morning line 4/1Jenlovestoshop23.7%Irish Tale — 13.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Irish Tale13.2%Starship Excelsior — 9.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Starship Excelsior9.5%Gustavia — 8.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Gustavia8.2%Causeshzprecocious — 6.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Causeshzprecocious6.8%Vino — 6.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Vino6.0%Hattie G — 3.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Hattie G3.7%Magic Mini — 3.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Magic Mini3.2%Olympic Kitty — 2.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Olympic Kitty2.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Grant Me Peace23.7%2.5/1
Jenlovestoshop23.7%4/1
Irish Tale13.2%10/1
Starship Excelsior9.5%4.5/1
Gustavia8.2%8/1
Causeshzprecocious6.8%8/1
Vino6.0%10/1
Hattie G3.7%8/1
Magic Mini3.2%15/1
Olympic Kitty2.0%20/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGrant Me Peace: model 23.7% vs market 22.1% (+1.6 points)Grant Me Peace+1.6Jenlovestoshop: model 23.7% vs market 15.5% (+8.2 points)Jenlovestoshop+8.2Irish Tale: model 13.2% vs market 7.0% (+6.2 points)Irish Tale+6.2Starship Excelsior: model 9.5% vs market 14.1% (-4.5 points)Starship Excelsior-4.5Gustavia: model 8.2% vs market 8.6% (-0.4 points)Gustavia-0.4Causeshzprecocious: model 6.8% vs market 8.6% (-1.8 points)Causeshzprecocious-1.8Vino: model 6.0% vs market 7.0% (-1.1 points)Vino-1.1Hattie G: model 3.7% vs market 8.6% (-4.9 points)Hattie G-4.9Magic Mini: model 3.2% vs market 4.8% (-1.6 points)Magic Mini-1.6Olympic Kitty: model 2.0% vs market 3.7% (-1.7 points)Olympic Kitty-1.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Grant Me Peace23.7%22.1%+1.6
Jenlovestoshop23.7%15.5%+8.2
Irish Tale13.2%7.0%+6.2
Starship Excelsior9.5%14.1%-4.5
Gustavia8.2%8.6%-0.4
Causeshzprecocious6.8%8.6%-1.8
Vino6.0%7.0%-1.1
Hattie G3.7%8.6%-4.9
Magic Mini3.2%4.8%-1.6
Olympic Kitty2.0%3.7%-1.7
🌧️ Off-track: 1410529
🎯 Longshots: 14105293768
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #5, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,000
Win:5Zozan (9/5) 33% · fair 2-1
Place:4King Of Hollywood (5/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -49%
Show:2Swashbuckle (5/1) 15% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:3Seaver (9/2) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -35%, 7Noble Prince (10/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 1Eton (10/1) 7% · fair 13-1
Rest of field:6Never Say Never (15/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -34%, 8Fredericksburg (20/1) 2% · fair 103-2 underlay -61%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Zozan — 33.4% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Zozan33.4% ◀King Of Hollywood — 17.0% win probability, morning line 2.5/1King Of Hollywood17.0%Swashbuckle — 14.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Swashbuckle14.8%Seaver — 12.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Seaver12.6%Noble Prince — 9.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Noble Prince9.0%Eton — 7.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Eton7.0%Never Say Never — 4.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Never Say Never4.2%Fredericksburg — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Fredericksburg1.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Zozan33.4%1.8/1
King Of Hollywood17.0%2.5/1
Swashbuckle14.8%5/1
Seaver12.6%4.5/1
Noble Prince9.0%10/1
Eton7.0%10/1
Never Say Never4.2%15/1
Fredericksburg1.9%20/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherZozan: model 33.4% vs market 27.8% (+5.6 points)Zozan+5.6King Of Hollywood: model 17.0% vs market 22.3% (-5.3 points)King Of Hollywood-5.3Swashbuckle: model 14.8% vs market 13.0% (+1.8 points)Swashbuckle+1.8Seaver: model 12.6% vs market 14.2% (-1.6 points)Seaver-1.6Noble Prince: model 9.0% vs market 7.1% (+1.9 points)Noble Prince+1.9Eton: model 7.0% vs market 7.1% (-0.0 points)Eton-0.0Never Say Never: model 4.2% vs market 4.9% (-0.6 points)Never Say Never-0.6Fredericksburg: model 1.9% vs market 3.7% (-1.8 points)Fredericksburg-1.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Zozan33.4%27.8%+5.6
King Of Hollywood17.0%22.3%-5.3
Swashbuckle14.8%13.0%+1.8
Seaver12.6%14.2%-1.6
Noble Prince9.0%7.1%+1.9
Eton7.0%7.1%-0.0
Never Say Never4.2%4.9%-0.6
Fredericksburg1.9%3.7%-1.8
🌧️ Off-track: 542371
🎯 Longshots: 51647328
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $31,000
Win:6Daunting (9/5) 35% · fair 2-1
Place:1Barjouj (2/1) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -42%
Show:3Captain Karter (9/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:7Star Of The Gun (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 4On The Rox (8/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -50%
Rest of field:5Charcoal Blue (6/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -72%, 2E Z Shopping (15/1) 3% · fair 67-2 underlay -55%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Daunting — 35.3% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Daunting35.3% ◀Barjouj — 22.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Barjouj22.6%Captain Karter — 17.8% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Captain Karter17.8%Star Of The Gun — 11.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Star Of The Gun11.0%On The Rox — 5.9% win probability, morning line 8/1On The Rox5.9%Charcoal Blue — 4.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Charcoal Blue4.5%E Z Shopping — 2.9% win probability, morning line 15/1E Z Shopping2.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Daunting35.3%1.8/1
Barjouj22.6%2/1
Captain Karter17.8%4.5/1
Star Of The Gun11.0%8/1
On The Rox5.9%8/1
Charcoal Blue4.5%6/1
E Z Shopping2.9%15/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDaunting: model 35.3% vs market 27.5% (+7.8 points)Daunting+7.8Barjouj: model 22.6% vs market 25.6% (-3.0 points)Barjouj-3.0Captain Karter: model 17.8% vs market 14.0% (+3.8 points)Captain Karter+3.8Star Of The Gun: model 11.0% vs market 8.5% (+2.5 points)Star Of The Gun+2.5On The Rox: model 5.9% vs market 8.5% (-2.7 points)On The Rox-2.7Charcoal Blue: model 4.5% vs market 11.0% (-6.5 points)Charcoal Blue-6.5E Z Shopping: model 2.9% vs market 4.8% (-1.9 points)E Z Shopping-1.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Daunting35.3%27.5%+7.8
Barjouj22.6%25.6%-3.0
Captain Karter17.8%14.0%+3.8
Star Of The Gun11.0%8.5%+2.5
On The Rox5.9%8.5%-2.7
Charcoal Blue4.5%11.0%-6.5
E Z Shopping2.9%4.8%-1.9
🌧️ Off-track: 613754
🎯 Longshots: 6173452
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:7Tulio (2/1) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -30%
Place:2Astrogem (5/2) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -28%
Show:5Our Willow (4/1) 21% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:3Subtle Sir (7/2) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -34%, 4Slew De Oro (15/1) 5% · fair 18-1, 6Mischief Holiday (15/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -26%
Rest of field:8Don't Tell Bert (12/1) 3% · fair 34-1 underlay -64%, 1Power Royal (20/1) 2% · fair 41-1 underlay -51%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Tulio — 26.0% win probability, morning line 2/1Tulio26.0% ◀Astrogem — 22.4% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Astrogem22.4%Our Willow — 20.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Our Willow20.6%Subtle Sir — 15.8% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Subtle Sir15.8%Slew De Oro — 5.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Slew De Oro5.3%Mischief Holiday — 4.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Mischief Holiday4.7%Don'T Tell Bert — 2.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Don'T Tell Bert2.9%Power Royal — 2.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Power Royal2.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Tulio26.0%2/1
Astrogem22.4%2.5/1
Our Willow20.6%4/1
Subtle Sir15.8%3.5/1
Slew De Oro5.3%15/1
Mischief Holiday4.7%15/1
Don'T Tell Bert2.9%12/1
Power Royal2.4%20/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTulio: model 26.0% vs market 25.8% (+0.1 points)Tulio+0.1Astrogem: model 22.4% vs market 22.1% (+0.3 points)Astrogem+0.3Our Willow: model 20.6% vs market 15.5% (+5.1 points)Our Willow+5.1Subtle Sir: model 15.8% vs market 17.2% (-1.4 points)Subtle Sir-1.4Slew De Oro: model 5.3% vs market 4.8% (+0.4 points)Slew De Oro+0.4Mischief Holiday: model 4.7% vs market 4.8% (-0.1 points)Mischief Holiday-0.1Don'T Tell Bert: model 2.9% vs market 6.0% (-3.1 points)Don'T Tell Bert-3.1Power Royal: model 2.4% vs market 3.7% (-1.3 points)Power Royal-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Tulio26.0%25.8%+0.1
Astrogem22.4%22.1%+0.3
Our Willow20.6%15.5%+5.1
Subtle Sir15.8%17.2%-1.4
Slew De Oro5.3%4.8%+0.4
Mischief Holiday4.7%4.8%-0.1
Don'T Tell Bert2.9%6.0%-3.1
Power Royal2.4%3.7%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 725384
🎯 Longshots: 72453681
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,000
Win:3Sofocles (9/5) 29% · fair 5-2 underlay -28%
Place:7Carcone (2/1) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -31%
Show:2El Muheet (4/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -40%
Other contenders:1Araucano (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 6Santal (10/1) 9% · fair 21-2
Rest of field:4Valiant Winter (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -27%, 5Love Hate (15/1) 5% · fair 35-2
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Sofocles — 28.6% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Sofocles28.6% ◀Carcone — 25.5% win probability, morning line 2/1Carcone25.5%El Muheet — 13.1% win probability, morning line 4/1El Muheet13.1%Araucano — 11.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Araucano11.6%Santal — 8.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Santal8.9%Valiant Winter — 6.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Valiant Winter6.8%Love Hate — 5.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Love Hate5.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Sofocles28.6%1.8/1
Carcone25.5%2/1
El Muheet13.1%4/1
Araucano11.6%6/1
Santal8.9%10/1
Valiant Winter6.8%10/1
Love Hate5.4%15/1
🌧️ Off-track: 372164
🎯 Longshots: 3745612
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:5Sucker For Looks (5/2) 21% · fair 7-2 underlay -32%
Place:9Touch Of Honor (5/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Show:11Smoke (6/1) 16% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:8Boots (15/1) 9% · fair 21-2 overlay +42%, 4Liberty Rings (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -30%, 10Life's Mystery (9/2) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -61%, 6Karolina Pharoah (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -35%
Rest of field:12Casablanca Queen (8/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -52%, 2Hammy (20/1) 4% · fair 23-1, 3Kissed By A Rose (20/1) 4% · fair 23-1, 7Philipina A (30/1) 1% · fair 169-2 underlay -65%, 1Chica Feliz (50/1) 0% · fair 433-2 underlay -77%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Sucker For Looks — 21.4% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Sucker For Looks21.4% ◀Touch Of Honor — 16.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Touch Of Honor16.4%Smoke — 15.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Smoke15.7%Boots — 8.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Boots8.6%Liberty Rings — 8.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Liberty Rings8.1%Life'S Mystery — 8.0% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Life'S Mystery8.0%Karolina Pharoah — 6.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Karolina Pharoah6.1%Casablanca Queen — 5.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Casablanca Queen5.7%Hammy — 4.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Hammy4.2%Kissed By A Rose — 4.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Kissed By A Rose4.1%Philipina A — 1.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Philipina A1.2%Chica Feliz — 0.5% win probability, morning line 50/1Chica Feliz0.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Sucker For Looks21.4%2.5/1
Touch Of Honor16.4%5/1
Smoke15.7%6/1
Boots8.6%15/1
Liberty Rings8.1%8/1
Life'S Mystery8.0%4.5/1
Karolina Pharoah6.1%10/1
Casablanca Queen5.7%8/1
Hammy4.2%20/1
Kissed By A Rose4.1%20/1
Philipina A1.2%30/1
Chica Feliz0.5%50/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSucker For Looks: model 21.4% vs market 22.0% (-0.6 points)Sucker For Looks-0.6Touch Of Honor: model 16.4% vs market 12.8% (+3.6 points)Touch Of Honor+3.6Smoke: model 15.7% vs market 11.0% (+4.7 points)Smoke+4.7Boots: model 8.6% vs market 4.8% (+3.8 points)Boots+3.8Liberty Rings: model 8.1% vs market 8.5% (-0.5 points)Liberty Rings-0.5Life'S Mystery: model 8.0% vs market 14.0% (-6.0 points)Life'S Mystery-6.0Karolina Pharoah: model 6.1% vs market 7.0% (-0.9 points)Karolina Pharoah-0.9Casablanca Queen: model 5.7% vs market 8.5% (-2.8 points)Casablanca Queen-2.8Hammy: model 4.2% vs market 3.7% (+0.5 points)Hammy+0.5Kissed By A Rose: model 4.1% vs market 3.7% (+0.5 points)Kissed By A Rose+0.5Philipina A: model 1.2% vs market 2.5% (-1.3 points)Philipina A-1.3Chica Feliz: model 0.5% vs market 1.5% (-1.0 points)Chica Feliz-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Sucker For Looks21.4%22.0%-0.6
Touch Of Honor16.4%12.8%+3.6
Smoke15.7%11.0%+4.7
Boots8.6%4.8%+3.8
Liberty Rings8.1%8.5%-0.5
Life'S Mystery8.0%14.0%-6.0
Karolina Pharoah6.1%7.0%-0.9
Casablanca Queen5.7%8.5%-2.8
Hammy4.2%3.7%+0.5
Kissed By A Rose4.1%3.7%+0.5
Philipina A1.2%2.5%-1.3
Chica Feliz0.5%1.5%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 591110412
🎯 Longshots: 512410689112371
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #9, #11, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $28,500
Win:7Mish (1/1) 53% · fair 4-5
Place:1Final Payment (6/1) 16% · fair 11-2
Show:5Proud American (4/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -48%
Other contenders:4Ajaayb (3/1) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -69%, 3Captain Eddie (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -26%
Rest of field:2He Be Hoppin (20/1) 3% · fair 75-2 underlay -47%, 6I'm Tuff Enough (20/1) 1% · fair 94-1 underlay -79%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Mish — 53.0% win probability, morning line 1/1Mish53.0% ◀Final Payment — 15.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Final Payment15.6%Proud American — 11.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Proud American11.5%Ajaayb — 9.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Ajaayb9.3%Captain Eddie — 6.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Captain Eddie6.9%He Be Hoppin — 2.6% win probability, morning line 20/1He Be Hoppin2.6%I'M Tuff Enough — 1.1% win probability, morning line 20/1I'M Tuff Enough1.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Mish53.0%1/1
Final Payment15.6%6/1
Proud American11.5%4/1
Ajaayb9.3%3/1
Captain Eddie6.9%10/1
He Be Hoppin2.6%20/1
I'M Tuff Enough1.1%20/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMish: model 53.0% vs market 39.1% (+13.9 points)Mish+13.9Final Payment: model 15.6% vs market 11.2% (+4.4 points)Final Payment+4.4Proud American: model 11.5% vs market 15.6% (-4.1 points)Proud American-4.1Ajaayb: model 9.3% vs market 19.5% (-10.2 points)Ajaayb-10.2Captain Eddie: model 6.9% vs market 7.1% (-0.2 points)Captain Eddie-0.2He Be Hoppin: model 2.6% vs market 3.7% (-1.1 points)He Be Hoppin-1.1I'M Tuff Enough: model 1.1% vs market 3.7% (-2.7 points)I'M Tuff Enough-2.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Mish53.0%39.1%+13.9
Final Payment15.6%11.2%+4.4
Proud American11.5%15.6%-4.1
Ajaayb9.3%19.5%-10.2
Captain Eddie6.9%7.1%-0.2
He Be Hoppin2.6%3.7%-1.1
I'M Tuff Enough1.1%3.7%-2.7
🌧️ Off-track: 745132
🎯 Longshots: 7314256
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $33,500
Win:7New Life (3/1) 30% · fair 5-2 overlay +31%
Place:3Tell Me Some Lies (2/1) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -54%
Show:6Elenique (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:5Lady River Lily (9/2) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -47%, 2Tape Runner (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 1More Applause (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -27%
Rest of field:9Del Mar Sunrise (8/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -56%, 4Nashville Slew (20/1) 5% · fair 39-2, 8Starship Elation (20/1) 3% · fair 73-2 underlay -45%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

New Life — 30.4% win probability, morning line 3/1New Life30.4% ◀Tell Me Some Lies — 18.8% win probability, morning line 2/1Tell Me Some Lies18.8%Elenique — 11.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Elenique11.6%Lady River Lily — 10.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Lady River Lily10.5%Tape Runner — 9.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Tape Runner9.2%More Applause — 6.8% win probability, morning line 10/1More Applause6.8%Del Mar Sunrise — 5.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Del Mar Sunrise5.2%Nashville Slew — 4.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Nashville Slew4.9%Starship Elation — 2.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Starship Elation2.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
New Life30.4%3/1
Tell Me Some Lies18.8%2/1
Elenique11.6%8/1
Lady River Lily10.5%4.5/1
Tape Runner9.2%8/1
More Applause6.8%10/1
Del Mar Sunrise5.2%8/1
Nashville Slew4.9%20/1
Starship Elation2.7%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherNew Life: model 30.4% vs market 19.5% (+10.9 points)New Life+10.9Tell Me Some Lies: model 18.8% vs market 25.9% (-7.2 points)Tell Me Some Lies-7.2Elenique: model 11.6% vs market 8.6% (+2.9 points)Elenique+2.9Lady River Lily: model 10.5% vs market 14.2% (-3.7 points)Lady River Lily-3.7Tape Runner: model 9.2% vs market 8.6% (+0.5 points)Tape Runner+0.5More Applause: model 6.8% vs market 7.1% (-0.2 points)More Applause-0.2Del Mar Sunrise: model 5.2% vs market 8.6% (-3.4 points)Del Mar Sunrise-3.4Nashville Slew: model 4.9% vs market 3.7% (+1.2 points)Nashville Slew+1.2Starship Elation: model 2.7% vs market 3.7% (-1.0 points)Starship Elation-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
New Life30.4%19.5%+10.9
Tell Me Some Lies18.8%25.9%-7.2
Elenique11.6%8.6%+2.9
Lady River Lily10.5%14.2%-3.7
Tape Runner9.2%8.6%+0.5
More Applause6.8%7.1%-0.2
Del Mar Sunrise5.2%8.6%-3.4
Nashville Slew4.9%3.7%+1.2
Starship Elation2.7%3.7%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 735629
🎯 Longshots: 673124895
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $54,000
Win:7Al Loud (2/1) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:5Irish Adieu (3/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Show:1All To Win (5/2) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -40%
Other contenders:2Zeus's Echo (5/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -37%, 4Junction Road (8/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -38%
Rest of field:6Khon Han (10/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -29%, 3Radical Rhetoric (20/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -39%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Al Loud — 30.2% win probability, morning line 2/1Al Loud30.2% ◀Irish Adieu — 22.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Irish Adieu22.3%All To Win — 19.5% win probability, morning line 2.5/1All To Win19.5%Zeus'S Echo — 11.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Zeus'S Echo11.2%Junction Road — 7.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Junction Road7.2%Khon Han — 6.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Khon Han6.7%Radical Rhetoric — 3.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Radical Rhetoric3.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Al Loud30.2%2/1
Irish Adieu22.3%3/1
All To Win19.5%2.5/1
Zeus'S Echo11.2%5/1
Junction Road7.2%8/1
Khon Han6.7%10/1
Radical Rhetoric3.0%20/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherAl Loud: model 30.2% vs market 25.9% (+4.3 points)Al Loud+4.3Irish Adieu: model 22.3% vs market 19.4% (+2.9 points)Irish Adieu+2.9All To Win: model 19.5% vs market 22.2% (-2.8 points)All To Win-2.8Zeus'S Echo: model 11.2% vs market 13.0% (-1.8 points)Zeus'S Echo-1.8Junction Road: model 7.2% vs market 8.6% (-1.5 points)Junction Road-1.5Khon Han: model 6.7% vs market 7.1% (-0.4 points)Khon Han-0.4Radical Rhetoric: model 3.0% vs market 3.7% (-0.7 points)Radical Rhetoric-0.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Al Loud30.2%25.9%+4.3
Irish Adieu22.3%19.4%+2.9
All To Win19.5%22.2%-2.8
Zeus'S Echo11.2%13.0%-1.8
Junction Road7.2%8.6%-1.5
Khon Han6.7%7.1%-0.4
Radical Rhetoric3.0%3.7%-0.7
🌧️ Off-track: 751246
🎯 Longshots: 7514632
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:8Day To Day (2/1) 37% · fair 3-2
Place:3Striking Finale (8/1) 22% · fair 7-2 overlay +126%
Show:2Pure Eloquence (5/2) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -69%
Other contenders:7Come On Teesha (5/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -55%, 1Bayou Brigid (10/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -32%, 5Little Georgie (20/1) 5% · fair 21-1
Rest of field:9Cryingintherain (10/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -69%, 4Bert's Knoty Girl (15/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -57%, 10Rogue Runner (30/1) 3% · fair 71-2, 6Super Sienna (12/1) 3% · fair 38-1 underlay -69%
Race 10 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Day To Day — 36.7% win probability, morning line 2/1Day To Day36.7% ◀Striking Finale — 22.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Striking Finale22.0%Pure Eloquence — 11.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Pure Eloquence11.2%Come On Teesha — 8.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Come On Teesha8.2%Bayou Brigid — 6.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Bayou Brigid6.4%Little Georgie — 4.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Little Georgie4.5%Cryingintherain — 3.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Cryingintherain3.0%Bert'S Knoty Girl — 2.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Bert'S Knoty Girl2.8%Rogue Runner — 2.7% win probability, morning line 30/1Rogue Runner2.7%Super Sienna — 2.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Super Sienna2.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Day To Day36.7%2/1
Striking Finale22.0%8/1
Pure Eloquence11.2%2.5/1
Come On Teesha8.2%5/1
Bayou Brigid6.4%10/1
Little Georgie4.5%20/1
Cryingintherain3.0%10/1
Bert'S Knoty Girl2.8%15/1
Rogue Runner2.7%30/1
Super Sienna2.6%12/1
Race 10 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDay To Day: model 36.7% vs market 25.7% (+11.0 points)Day To Day+11.0Striking Finale: model 22.0% vs market 8.6% (+13.4 points)Striking Finale+13.4Pure Eloquence: model 11.2% vs market 22.0% (-10.8 points)Pure Eloquence-10.8Come On Teesha: model 8.2% vs market 12.8% (-4.6 points)Come On Teesha-4.6Bayou Brigid: model 6.4% vs market 7.0% (-0.6 points)Bayou Brigid-0.6Little Georgie: model 4.5% vs market 3.7% (+0.8 points)Little Georgie+0.8Cryingintherain: model 3.0% vs market 7.0% (-4.0 points)Cryingintherain-4.0Bert'S Knoty Girl: model 2.8% vs market 4.8% (-2.0 points)Bert'S Knoty Girl-2.0Rogue Runner: model 2.7% vs market 2.5% (+0.3 points)Rogue Runner+0.3Super Sienna: model 2.6% vs market 5.9% (-3.4 points)Super Sienna-3.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Day To Day36.7%25.7%+11.0
Striking Finale22.0%8.6%+13.4
Pure Eloquence11.2%22.0%-10.8
Come On Teesha8.2%12.8%-4.6
Bayou Brigid6.4%7.0%-0.6
Little Georgie4.5%3.7%+0.8
Cryingintherain3.0%7.0%-4.0
Bert'S Knoty Girl2.8%4.8%-2.0
Rogue Runner2.7%2.5%+0.3
Super Sienna2.6%5.9%-3.4
🌧️ Off-track: 823719
🎯 Longshots: 83127596410
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,500
Win:1Grant Me Peace (5/2)
Place:4Jenlovestoshop (4/1)
Show:10Starship Excelsior (9/2)
Other contenders:9Causeshzprecocious (8/1), 5Irish Tale (10/1), 3Vino (10/1)
Rest of field:7Magic Mini (15/1), 2Gustavia (8/1), 6Hattie G (8/1), 8Olympic Kitty (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1410926
🎯 Longshots: 14105293768
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #10, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,000
Win:5Zozan (9/5)
Place:4King Of Hollywood (5/2)
Show:3Seaver (9/2)
Other contenders:2Swashbuckle (5/1), 1Eton (10/1), 7Noble Prince (10/1)
Rest of field:6Never Say Never (15/1), 8Fredericksburg (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 543217
🎯 Longshots: 51647328
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $31,000
Win:6Daunting (9/5)
Place:1Barjouj (2/1)
Show:3Captain Karter (9/2)
Other contenders:7Star Of The Gun (8/1), 5Charcoal Blue (6/1)
Rest of field:4On The Rox (8/1), 2E Z Shopping (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 613574
🎯 Longshots: 6173452
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:7Tulio (2/1)
Place:2Astrogem (5/2)
Show:5Our Willow (4/1)
Other contenders:3Subtle Sir (7/2), 4Slew De Oro (15/1), 6Mischief Holiday (15/1)
Rest of field:1Power Royal (20/1), 8Don't Tell Bert (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 723548
🎯 Longshots: 72453681
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,000
Win:3Sofocles (9/5)
Place:7Carcone (2/1)
Show:5Love Hate (15/1)
Other contenders:6Santal (10/1), 1Araucano (6/1)
Rest of field:2El Muheet (4/1), 4Valiant Winter (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 372164
🎯 Longshots: 3745612
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:5Sucker For Looks (5/2)
Place:11Smoke (6/1)
Show:9Touch Of Honor (5/1)
Other contenders:4Liberty Rings (8/1), 8Boots (15/1), 10Life's Mystery (9/2), 6Karolina Pharoah (10/1)
Rest of field:12Casablanca Queen (8/1), 2Hammy (20/1), 3Kissed By A Rose (20/1), 7Philipina A (30/1), 1Chica Feliz (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 591011412
🎯 Longshots: 512410689112371
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #11, #9, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $28,500
Win:7Mish (1/1)
Place:1Final Payment (6/1)
Show:4Ajaayb (3/1)
Other contenders:5Proud American (4/1), 3Captain Eddie (10/1)
Rest of field:2He Be Hoppin (20/1), 6I'm Tuff Enough (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 745132
🎯 Longshots: 7314256
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $33,500
Win:7New Life (3/1)
Place:3Tell Me Some Lies (2/1)
Show:5Lady River Lily (9/2)
Other contenders:6Elenique (8/1), 1More Applause (10/1), 2Tape Runner (8/1)
Rest of field:4Nashville Slew (20/1), 9Del Mar Sunrise (8/1), 8Starship Elation (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 375621
🎯 Longshots: 673124895
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $54,000
Win:7Al Loud (2/1)
Place:5Irish Adieu (3/1)
Show:1All To Win (5/2)
Other contenders:2Zeus's Echo (5/1), 4Junction Road (8/1)
Rest of field:6Khon Han (10/1), 3Radical Rhetoric (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 715246
🎯 Longshots: 7514632
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:8Day To Day (2/1)
Place:2Pure Eloquence (5/2)
Show:3Striking Finale (8/1)
Other contenders:1Bayou Brigid (10/1), 7Come On Teesha (5/1), 5Little Georgie (20/1)
Rest of field:6Super Sienna (12/1), 9Cryingintherain (10/1), 4Bert's Knoty Girl (15/1), 10Rogue Runner (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 827319
🎯 Longshots: 83127596410
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #4, #7, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #5 over #4 ($1 straight; box #5-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #4, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #6 over #1 ($1 straight; box #6-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #6, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #7 over #2 ($1 straight; box #7-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #2, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #3 over #7 ($1 straight; box #3-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #3, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #5 over #10 ($1 straight; box #5-#10 for cover)
Trifecta: #9 over #11, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #7 over #1 ($1 straight; box #7-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #1, #5, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #7 over #3 ($1 straight; box #7-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #5, #6, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #7 over #1 ($1 straight; box #7-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #7, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 10AI Exacta: #8 over #2 ($1 straight; box #8-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #8, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.38 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.80 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
62Hammy ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer20/1—3.9%+-14.8%0.00%$0.00
TOTAL across 1 play:0.0%$0.00
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,500
Win:1Grant Me Peace (5/2)
Place:4Jenlovestoshop (4/1)
Show:2Gustavia (8/1)
Other contenders:10Starship Excelsior (9/2), 9Causeshzprecocious (8/1), 5Irish Tale (10/1)
Rest of field:3Vino (10/1), 7Magic Mini (15/1), 6Hattie G (8/1), 8Olympic Kitty (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1410295
🎯 Longshots: 14105293768
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #2, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,000
Win:5Zozan (9/5)
Place:3Seaver (9/2)
Show:4King Of Hollywood (5/2)
Other contenders:6Never Say Never (15/1), 2Swashbuckle (5/1), 7Noble Prince (10/1)
Rest of field:1Eton (10/1), 8Fredericksburg (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 543276
🎯 Longshots: 51647328
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $31,000
Win:6Daunting (9/5)
Place:1Barjouj (2/1)
Show:7Star Of The Gun (8/1)
Other contenders:3Captain Karter (9/2), 4On The Rox (8/1)
Rest of field:5Charcoal Blue (6/1), 2E Z Shopping (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 613754
🎯 Longshots: 6173452
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:7Tulio (2/1)
Place:2Astrogem (5/2)
Show:4Slew De Oro (15/1)
Other contenders:5Our Willow (4/1), 3Subtle Sir (7/2), 8Don't Tell Bert (12/1)
Rest of field:6Mischief Holiday (15/1), 1Power Royal (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 723548
🎯 Longshots: 72453681
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,000
Win:7Carcone (2/1)
Place:5Love Hate (15/1)
Show:3Sofocles (9/5)
Other contenders:4Valiant Winter (10/1), 1Araucano (6/1)
Rest of field:2El Muheet (4/1), 6Santal (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 732145
🎯 Longshots: 3745612
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:9Touch Of Honor (5/1)
Place:11Smoke (6/1)
Show:4Liberty Rings (8/1)
Other contenders:5Sucker For Looks (5/2), 10Life's Mystery (9/2), 6Karolina Pharoah (10/1), 12Casablanca Queen (8/1)
Rest of field:8Boots (15/1), 2Hammy (20/1), 3Kissed By A Rose (20/1), 7Philipina A (30/1), 1Chica Feliz (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 591011412
🎯 Longshots: 512410689112371
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #11, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $28,500
Win:7Mish (1/1)
Place:1Final Payment (6/1)
Show:5Proud American (4/1)
Other contenders:4Ajaayb (3/1), 3Captain Eddie (10/1)
Rest of field:6I'm Tuff Enough (20/1), 2He Be Hoppin (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 745136
🎯 Longshots: 7314256
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $33,500
Win:7New Life (3/1)
Place:6Elenique (8/1)
Show:5Lady River Lily (9/2)
Other contenders:3Tell Me Some Lies (2/1), 1More Applause (10/1), 2Tape Runner (8/1)
Rest of field:4Nashville Slew (20/1), 9Del Mar Sunrise (8/1), 8Starship Elation (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 735621
🎯 Longshots: 673124895
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $54,000
Win:5Irish Adieu (3/1)
Place:4Junction Road (8/1)
Show:2Zeus's Echo (5/1)
Other contenders:1All To Win (5/2), 7Al Loud (2/1)
Rest of field:6Khon Han (10/1), 3Radical Rhetoric (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 751246
🎯 Longshots: 7514632
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:8Day To Day (2/1)
Place:3Striking Finale (8/1)
Show:2Pure Eloquence (5/2)
Other contenders:1Bayou Brigid (10/1), 7Come On Teesha (5/1), 6Super Sienna (12/1)
Rest of field:9Cryingintherain (10/1), 5Little Georgie (20/1), 4Bert's Knoty Girl (15/1), 10Rogue Runner (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 827319
🎯 Longshots: 83127596410
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,500
Win:1Grant Me Peace (5/2)
Place:4Jenlovestoshop (4/1)
Show:7Magic Mini (15/1)
Other contenders:9Causeshzprecocious (8/1), 5Irish Tale (10/1), 10Starship Excelsior (9/2)
Rest of field:2Gustavia (8/1), 3Vino (10/1), 6Hattie G (8/1), 8Olympic Kitty (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1410925
🎯 Longshots: 14105293768
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #7, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,000
Win:5Zozan (9/5)
Place:4King Of Hollywood (5/2)
Show:2Swashbuckle (5/1)
Other contenders:3Seaver (9/2), 7Noble Prince (10/1), 6Never Say Never (15/1)
Rest of field:1Eton (10/1), 8Fredericksburg (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 542371
🎯 Longshots: 51647328
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $31,000
Win:1Barjouj (2/1)
Place:6Daunting (9/5)
Show:3Captain Karter (9/2)
Other contenders:7Star Of The Gun (8/1), 5Charcoal Blue (6/1)
Rest of field:4On The Rox (8/1), 2E Z Shopping (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 163574
🎯 Longshots: 6173452
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:7Tulio (2/1)
Place:2Astrogem (5/2)
Show:3Subtle Sir (7/2)
Other contenders:5Our Willow (4/1), 4Slew De Oro (15/1), 1Power Royal (20/1)
Rest of field:6Mischief Holiday (15/1), 8Don't Tell Bert (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 723548
🎯 Longshots: 72453681
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $23,000
Win:7Carcone (2/1)
Place:3Sofocles (9/5)
Show:1Araucano (6/1)
Other contenders:6Santal (10/1), 5Love Hate (15/1)
Rest of field:2El Muheet (4/1), 4Valiant Winter (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 372164
🎯 Longshots: 3745612
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:9Touch Of Honor (5/1)
Place:11Smoke (6/1)
Show:5Sucker For Looks (5/2)
Other contenders:6Karolina Pharoah (10/1), 4Liberty Rings (8/1), 8Boots (15/1), 10Life's Mystery (9/2)
Rest of field:2Hammy (20/1), 12Casablanca Queen (8/1), 3Kissed By A Rose (20/1), 7Philipina A (30/1), 1Chica Feliz (50/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 59111046
🎯 Longshots: 512410689112371
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #11, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $28,500
Win:7Mish (1/1)
Place:1Final Payment (6/1)
Show:5Proud American (4/1)
Other contenders:3Captain Eddie (10/1), 4Ajaayb (3/1)
Rest of field:2He Be Hoppin (20/1), 6I'm Tuff Enough (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 741532
🎯 Longshots: 7314256
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $33,500
Win:7New Life (3/1)
Place:5Lady River Lily (9/2)
Show:6Elenique (8/1)
Other contenders:3Tell Me Some Lies (2/1), 2Tape Runner (8/1), 1More Applause (10/1)
Rest of field:4Nashville Slew (20/1), 9Del Mar Sunrise (8/1), 8Starship Elation (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 735621
🎯 Longshots: 673124895
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $54,000
Win:5Irish Adieu (3/1)
Place:7Al Loud (2/1)
Show:1All To Win (5/2)
Other contenders:2Zeus's Echo (5/1), 4Junction Road (8/1)
Rest of field:6Khon Han (10/1), 3Radical Rhetoric (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 715246
🎯 Longshots: 7514632
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:3Striking Finale (8/1)
Place:8Day To Day (2/1)
Show:2Pure Eloquence (5/2)
Other contenders:1Bayou Brigid (10/1), 7Come On Teesha (5/1), 5Little Georgie (20/1)
Rest of field:6Super Sienna (12/1), 10Rogue Runner (30/1), 9Cryingintherain (10/1), 4Bert's Knoty Girl (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 823719
🎯 Longshots: 83127596410
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R2-4R2: #5,#4,#2 (65%) / R3: #6,#1,#3 (76%) / R4: #7,#2,#5 (69%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 34%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #6,#1,#3 (76%) / R4: #7,#2,#5 (69%) / R5: #3,#7,#2 (67%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 35%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #3,#7,#2 (67%) / R6: #5,#9,#11 (54%) / R7: #7,#1 (69%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25%
Pick 3 R7-9R7: #7,#1 (69%) / R8: #7,#3,#6 (61%) / R9: #7,#5,#1 (72%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 30%
Pick 4 R4-7R4: #7,#2,#5 (69%) / R5: #3,#7,#2 (67%) / R6: #5,#9,#11 (54%) / R7: #7,#1 (69%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17%
Pick 4 R7-10R7: #7,#1 (69%) / R8: #7,#3,#6 (61%) / R9: #7,#5,#1 (72%) / R10: #8,#3,#2 (70%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
AJAAYBAL LOUDALL TO WINARAUCANOASTROGEM
BAYOU BRIGIDBERT'S KNOTY GIRLBOOTSCAPTAIN EDDIECAPTAIN KARTER
CASABLANCA QUEENCAUSESHZPRECOCIOUSCHARCOAL BLUECHICA FELIZCOME ON TEESHA
DAUNTINGDAY TO DAYDEL MAR SUNRISEDON'T TELL BERTE Z SHOPPING
ELENIQUEETONFINAL PAYMENTFREDERICKSBURGGRANT ME PEACE
HAMMYHATTIE GHE BE HOPPINI'M TUFF ENOUGHIRISH ADIEU
JENLOVESTOSHOPJUNCTION ROADKAROLINA PHAROAHKHON HANKING OF HOLLYWOOD
LADY RIVER LILYLIBERTY RINGSLIFE'S MYSTERYLITTLE GEORGIELOVE HATE
MISCHIEF HOLIDAYMISHMORE APPLAUSENASHVILLE SLEWNEVER SAY NEVER
NOBLE PRINCEOLYMPIC KITTYON THE ROXOUR WILLOWPHILIPINA A
PROUD AMERICANPURE ELOQUENCERADICAL RHETORICROGUE RUNNERSANTAL
SLEW DE OROSMOKESOFOCLESSTAR OF THE GUNSTARSHIP ELATION
STRIKING FINALESUBTLE SIRSUCKER FOR LOOKSSUPER SIENNASWASHBUCKLE
TELL ME SOME LIESTOUCH OF HONORTULIOVALIANT WINTERVINO
ZOZAN

 


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