How did these picks do?
Results for this card as of 7:39 AM, graded from the official charts. Each row is that section's top pick in every race with a result; races still pending are not counted. The full week is in the weekly recap.
| Section | Races graded | Won | 2nd | 3rd | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algo 1 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 29% |
| Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) | 8 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 25% |
| Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) | 9 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 22% |
| Experimental Weight Set 2 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 38% |
| Experimental Weight Set 3 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 25% |
Kelly Edge Plays: 1 flagged longshot(s) graded, 0 won, 0 finished in the money.
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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $28,500 | |
| Win: | 7 – Serrania (7/5) |
| Place: | 1 – Come On Poppi (2/1) |
| Show: | 4 – Kissed By Karma (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Sweet Taste (10/1), 3 – List (9/2), 8 – Loyalist (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Hit Music (20/1), 5 – Let Loose Lucy (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-7-3-6-8-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-1-4-3-8-6-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $28,500 | |
| Win: | 7 – Jost A Chance Yadi (5/2) |
| Place: | 6 – Baby Princess (3/1) |
| Show: | 2 – Reconquista (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – My Sweet Belle (10/1), 5 – Delta Queen (7/2) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Roses For Molly (9/2), 4 – One More Round (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-7-2-1-5-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-6-2-5-1-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $25,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Carcone (5/2) |
| Place: | 2 – Sofocles (4/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Valiant Winter (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Araucano (9/2), 4 – Santal (8/1), 8 – Rusty Pistol (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Iron The Money (15/1), 5 – Love Hate (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-6-4-2-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-3-2-6-7-8-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $27,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Henry's Buddy (8/5) |
| Place: | 1 – Show Boat (7/2) |
| Show: | 5 – Ching Ching (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Expert Witness (9/2), 2 – Rockin Empire (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Reproche (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-4-1-3-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-5-2-1-3-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $30,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – Free To Roam (7/2) |
| Place: | 1 – Winrooski (5/2) |
| Show: | 5 – Any Moment (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Musical Design (9/2), 4 – Moretastic (8/1), 3 – Windrush (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Wudhooh (8/1), 8 – Judge Judith (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-6-5-7-4-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-2-6-7-8-5-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #5, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $39,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – Su Win (9/5) |
| Place: | 5 – Greenfield Cougar (2/1) |
| Show: | 6 – Tree C's Kai (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Demar's Legacy (5/1), 1 – Softly Dreaming (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Viking Quest (9/2) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-1-3-6-4-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-1-3-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #6, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,500 | |
| Win: | 4 – The Coromoto (8/5) |
| Place: | 1 – Basilica Light (5/1) |
| Show: | 7 – Victorious Secret (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Cajun Empress (4/1), 3 – Kim Win Win (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – My Honey Mother (8/1), 6 – Lady Helene (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-1-4-7-3-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-7-5-1-3-2-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $52,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Love Like Lucy (4/5) |
| Place: | 1 – Vita Mia (4/1) |
| Show: | 2 – Fly Life (15/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8 – Dakota's Lil Auror (6/1), 6 – Culture (8/1), 3 – Major Pryce (20/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Evanora (8/1), 5 – Vivi Get Your Guns (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-1-8-2-6-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-2-4-6-1-3-8-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #2, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 9 1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $34,500 | |
| Win: | 8 – Mister Abarrio (9/5) |
| Place: | 3 – Saratoga Flash (7/2) |
| Show: | 2 – No More War (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Steelin Bases (9/2), 6 – Noble Tiger (20/1), 5 – Full Nelson (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Giftedbydesign (30/1), 7 – Battle Of Dover (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-2-3-8-5-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 8-5-2-1-7-3-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5, |
AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $28,500 | |
| Win: | 7 – Serrania (7/5) |
| Place: | 1 – Come On Poppi (2/1) |
| Show: | 4 – Kissed By Karma (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – List (9/2), 6 – Sweet Taste (10/1), 8 – Loyalist (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Hit Music (20/1), 5 – Let Loose Lucy (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-8-2-5-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-1-4-3-8-6-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $28,500 | |
| Win: | 7 – Jost A Chance Yadi (5/2) |
| Place: | 6 – Baby Princess (3/1) |
| Show: | 5 – Delta Queen (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Reconquista (5/1), 3 – Roses For Molly (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – My Sweet Belle (10/1), 4 – One More Round (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-7-5-2-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-6-2-5-1-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $25,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Carcone (5/2) |
| Place: | 2 – Sofocles (4/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Valiant Winter (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Araucano (9/2), 4 – Santal (8/1), 8 – Rusty Pistol (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Iron The Money (15/1), 5 – Love Hate (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-5-3-6-4-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-3-2-6-7-8-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $27,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Henry's Buddy (8/5) |
| Place: | 5 – Ching Ching (2/1) |
| Show: | 1 – Show Boat (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Expert Witness (9/2), 2 – Rockin Empire (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Reproche (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-3-4-1-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-5-2-1-3-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $30,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Winrooski (5/2) |
| Place: | 6 – Free To Roam (7/2) |
| Show: | 7 – Musical Design (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Any Moment (5/1), 4 – Moretastic (8/1), 3 – Windrush (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Wudhooh (8/1), 8 – Judge Judith (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-6-4-3-7-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-2-6-7-8-5-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $39,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – Su Win (9/5) |
| Place: | 5 – Greenfield Cougar (2/1) |
| Show: | 4 – Demar's Legacy (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Tree C's Kai (6/1), 3 – Viking Quest (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Softly Dreaming (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-1-2-4-6-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-1-3-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,500 | |
| Win: | 4 – The Coromoto (8/5) |
| Place: | 7 – Victorious Secret (3/1) |
| Show: | 5 – Cajun Empress (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Basilica Light (5/1), 2 – My Honey Mother (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Kim Win Win (8/1), 6 – Lady Helene (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-1-7-4-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-7-5-1-3-2-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $52,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Love Like Lucy (4/5) |
| Place: | 1 – Vita Mia (4/1) |
| Show: | 8 – Dakota's Lil Auror (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Evanora (8/1), 2 – Fly Life (15/1), 3 – Major Pryce (20/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Culture (8/1), 5 – Vivi Get Your Guns (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-1-8-5-3-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-2-4-6-1-3-8-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #8, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 9 1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $34,500 | |
| Win: | 8 – Mister Abarrio (9/5) |
| Place: | 2 – No More War (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Saratoga Flash (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Full Nelson (8/1), 4 – Steelin Bases (9/2), 7 – Battle Of Dover (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Noble Tiger (20/1), 1 – Giftedbydesign (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-2-3-5-8-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 8-5-2-1-7-3-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $28,500 | |
| Win: | 1 – Come On Poppi (2/1) 28% · fair 5-2 |
| Place: | 7 – Serrania (7/5) 27% · fair 5-2 underlay -48% |
| Show: | 4 – Kissed By Karma (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1 |
| Other contenders: | 3 – List (9/2) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -50%, 6 – Sweet Taste (10/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 8 – Loyalist (15/1) 7% · fair 27-2 |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Hit Music (20/1) 4% · fair 51-2, 5 – Let Loose Lucy (20/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -32% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-8-2-5-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-1-4-3-8-6-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $28,500 | |
| Win: | 7 – Jost A Chance Yadi (5/2) 27% · fair 5-2 |
| Place: | 5 – Delta Queen (7/2) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -31% |
| Show: | 2 – Reconquista (5/1) 15% · fair 11-2 |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Baby Princess (3/1) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -48%, 3 – Roses For Molly (9/2) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -42% |
| Rest of field: | 4 – One More Round (12/1) 8% · fair 12-1, 1 – My Sweet Belle (10/1) 8% · fair 12-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-7-5-2-3-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-6-2-5-1-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #2, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $25,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Carcone (5/2) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -41% |
| Place: | 2 – Sofocles (4/1) 18% · fair 9-2 |
| Show: | 3 – Valiant Winter (3/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -45% |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Araucano (9/2) 15% · fair 11-2, 4 – Santal (8/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 8 – Rusty Pistol (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -33% |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Iron The Money (15/1) 5% · fair 18-1, 5 – Love Hate (20/1) 4% · fair 45-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-1-3-6-4-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-3-2-6-7-8-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $27,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Henry's Buddy (8/5) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -47% |
| Place: | 5 – Ching Ching (2/1) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -34% |
| Show: | 6 – Expert Witness (9/2) 22% · fair 7-2 overlay +30% |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Show Boat (7/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -38%, 2 – Rockin Empire (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -33% |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Reproche (15/1) 5% · fair 19-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-3-4-1-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-5-2-1-3-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $30,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Winrooski (5/2) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -38% |
| Place: | 6 – Free To Roam (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2 |
| Show: | 7 – Musical Design (9/2) 17% · fair 5-1 |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Windrush (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 5 – Any Moment (5/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -42%, 4 – Moretastic (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1 |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Wudhooh (8/1) 9% · fair 19-2, 8 – Judge Judith (15/1) 3% · fair 28-1 underlay -47% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-6-4-3-7-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-2-6-7-8-5-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #7, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $39,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – Su Win (9/5) 29% · fair 5-2 underlay -28% |
| Place: | 5 – Greenfield Cougar (2/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -50% |
| Show: | 6 – Tree C's Kai (6/1) 19% · fair 4-1 overlay +45% |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Demar's Legacy (5/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 3 – Viking Quest (9/2) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -53% |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Softly Dreaming (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-2-4-6-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-1-3-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #6, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,500 | |
| Win: | 4 – The Coromoto (8/5) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -44% |
| Place: | 7 – Victorious Secret (3/1) 24% · fair 3-1 |
| Show: | 5 – Cajun Empress (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -27% |
| Other contenders: | 2 – My Honey Mother (8/1) 14% · fair 6-1 overlay +30%, 1 – Basilica Light (5/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -51% |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Kim Win Win (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -36%, 6 – Lady Helene (15/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -29% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-1-7-4-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-7-5-1-3-2-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $52,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Love Like Lucy (4/5) 32% · fair 2-1 underlay -62% |
| Place: | 4 – Evanora (8/1) 15% · fair 6-1 overlay +37% |
| Show: | 1 – Vita Mia (4/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -34% |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Culture (8/1) 13% · fair 7-1, 8 – Dakota's Lil Auror (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -34%, 2 – Fly Life (15/1) 8% · fair 12-1 |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Major Pryce (20/1) 5% · fair 41-2, 5 – Vivi Get Your Guns (20/1) 5% · fair 21-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-1-5-6-8-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-2-4-6-1-3-8-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 9 1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $34,500 | |
| Win: | 8 – Mister Abarrio (9/5) 29% · fair 5-2 underlay -25% |
| Place: | 2 – No More War (3/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -36% |
| Show: | 3 – Saratoga Flash (7/2) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -35% |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Full Nelson (8/1) 13% · fair 7-1, 4 – Steelin Bases (9/2) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -55%, 7 – Battle Of Dover (10/1) 9% · fair 21-2 |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Noble Tiger (20/1) 4% · fair 25-1, 1 – Giftedbydesign (30/1) 3% · fair 63-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-2-3-5-8-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 8-5-2-1-7-3-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ
Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.
| Race 1 | AI Exacta: #7 over #1 ($1 straight; box #7-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #7 over #1, #6, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 2 | AI Exacta: #7 over #6 ($1 straight; box #7-#6 for cover) Trifecta: #7 over #6, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 3 | AI Exacta: #1 over #2 ($1 straight; box #1-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #2, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 4 | AI Exacta: #4 over #5 ($1 straight; box #4-#5 for cover) Trifecta: #4 over #1, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 5 | AI Exacta: #1 over #6 ($1 straight; box #1-#6 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #6, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 6 | AI Exacta: #2 over #5 ($1 straight; box #2-#5 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #5, #6, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 7 | AI Exacta: #4 over #7 ($1 straight; box #4-#7 for cover) Trifecta: #4 over #1, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 8 | AI Exacta: #7 over #8 ($1 straight; box #7-#8 for cover) Trifecta: #7 over #1, #8, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 9 | AI Exacta: #8 over #2 ($1 straight; box #8-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #8 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
| Kelly Edge Plays (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob isotonic) Morning-line reliability: +0.39 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it) Weekend sizing: ×0.80 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged) | |||||||
| Race | Horse | ML | Live | P(win) | Edge | ¼ Kelly | Bet on $ bankroll |
| 8 | 3 – Major Pryce | 20/1 | — | 5.5% | +12.2% | 0.15% | $0.15 |
| TOTAL across 1 play: | 0.2% | $0.15 | |||||
| Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly. | |||||||
| 💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line. | |||||||
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $28,500 | |
| Win: | 7 - Serrania (7/5) |
| Place: | 1 - Come On Poppi (2/1) |
| Show: | 4 - Kissed By Karma (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 - List (9/2), 6 - Sweet Taste (10/1), 8 - Loyalist (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - Let Loose Lucy (20/1), 2 - Hit Music (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-7-3-6-8-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-1-4-3-8-6-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $28,500 | |
| Win: | 7 - Jost A Chance Yadi (5/2) |
| Place: | 6 - Baby Princess (3/1) |
| Show: | 2 - Reconquista (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 - Delta Queen (7/2), 3 - Roses For Molly (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 1 - My Sweet Belle (10/1), 4 - One More Round (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-7-2-5-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-6-2-5-1-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #2, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $25,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Carcone (5/2) |
| Place: | 3 - Valiant Winter (3/1) |
| Show: | 7 - Iron The Money (15/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 - Sofocles (4/1), 5 - Love Hate (20/1), 4 - Santal (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Araucano (9/2), 8 - Rusty Pistol (6/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-5-2-4-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-3-2-6-7-8-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $27,000 | |
| Win: | 5 - Ching Ching (2/1) |
| Place: | 4 - Henry's Buddy (8/5) |
| Show: | 1 - Show Boat (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Expert Witness (9/2), 2 - Rockin Empire (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Reproche (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-2-5-1-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-5-2-1-3-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $30,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Winrooski (5/2) |
| Place: | 7 - Musical Design (9/2) |
| Show: | 6 - Free To Roam (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Moretastic (8/1), 5 - Any Moment (5/1), 2 - Wudhooh (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Windrush (6/1), 8 - Judge Judith (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-7-1-8-4-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-2-6-7-8-5-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #6, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $39,000 | |
| Win: | 5 - Greenfield Cougar (2/1) |
| Place: | 2 - Su Win (9/5) |
| Show: | 4 - Demar's Legacy (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Tree C's Kai (6/1), 1 - Softly Dreaming (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Viking Quest (9/2) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-5-1-4-3-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-1-3-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,500 | |
| Win: | 4 - The Coromoto (8/5) |
| Place: | 1 - Basilica Light (5/1) |
| Show: | 7 - Victorious Secret (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 - My Honey Mother (8/1), 5 - Cajun Empress (4/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Kim Win Win (8/1), 6 - Lady Helene (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-1-4-7-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-7-5-1-3-2-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $52,000 | |
| Win: | 7 - Love Like Lucy (4/5) |
| Place: | 1 - Vita Mia (4/1) |
| Show: | 8 - Dakota's Lil Auror (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Evanora (8/1), 2 - Fly Life (15/1), 6 - Culture (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - Vivi Get Your Guns (20/1), 3 - Major Pryce (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-1-8-4-6-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-2-4-6-1-3-8-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #8, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 9 1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $34,500 | |
| Win: | 8 - Mister Abarrio (9/5) |
| Place: | 2 - No More War (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 - Saratoga Flash (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 5 - Full Nelson (8/1), 6 - Noble Tiger (20/1), 7 - Battle Of Dover (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Steelin Bases (9/2), 1 - Giftedbydesign (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-3-4-8-5-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 8-5-2-1-7-3-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $28,500 | |
| Win: | 7 - Serrania (7/5) |
| Place: | 1 - Come On Poppi (2/1) |
| Show: | 6 - Sweet Taste (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Kissed By Karma (8/1), 3 - List (9/2), 8 - Loyalist (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Hit Music (20/1), 5 - Let Loose Lucy (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-7-3-6-8-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-1-4-3-8-6-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #6, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $28,500 | |
| Win: | 7 - Jost A Chance Yadi (5/2) |
| Place: | 6 - Baby Princess (3/1) |
| Show: | 2 - Reconquista (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - My Sweet Belle (10/1), 5 - Delta Queen (7/2) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Roses For Molly (9/2), 4 - One More Round (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-7-2-1-5-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-6-2-5-1-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $25,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Carcone (5/2) |
| Place: | 2 - Sofocles (4/1) |
| Show: | 4 - Santal (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 - Valiant Winter (3/1), 6 - Araucano (9/2), 8 - Rusty Pistol (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 - Iron The Money (15/1), 5 - Love Hate (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-4-3-2-6-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-3-2-6-7-8-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $27,000 | |
| Win: | 4 - Henry's Buddy (8/5) |
| Place: | 1 - Show Boat (7/2) |
| Show: | 5 - Ching Ching (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Expert Witness (9/2), 2 - Rockin Empire (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Reproche (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-2-6-1-5-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-5-2-1-3-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $30,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Winrooski (5/2) |
| Place: | 6 - Free To Roam (7/2) |
| Show: | 7 - Musical Design (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Moretastic (8/1), 5 - Any Moment (5/1), 3 - Windrush (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Wudhooh (8/1), 8 - Judge Judith (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-8-4-7-1-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-2-6-7-8-5-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $39,000 | |
| Win: | 2 - Su Win (9/5) |
| Place: | 5 - Greenfield Cougar (2/1) |
| Show: | 6 - Tree C's Kai (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Demar's Legacy (5/1), 3 - Viking Quest (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 1 - Softly Dreaming (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-5-3-1-6-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-1-3-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #6, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $33,500 | |
| Win: | 4 - The Coromoto (8/5) |
| Place: | 1 - Basilica Light (5/1) |
| Show: | 7 - Victorious Secret (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 - Cajun Empress (4/1), 3 - Kim Win Win (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - My Honey Mother (8/1), 6 - Lady Helene (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-4-1-7-3-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-7-5-1-3-2-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $52,000 | |
| Win: | 7 - Love Like Lucy (4/5) |
| Place: | 1 - Vita Mia (4/1) |
| Show: | 8 - Dakota's Lil Auror (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 - Fly Life (15/1), 3 - Major Pryce (20/1), 4 - Evanora (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Culture (8/1), 5 - Vivi Get Your Guns (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-1-8-3-4-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-2-4-6-1-3-8-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #8, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 9 1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $34,500 | |
| Win: | 8 - Mister Abarrio (9/5) |
| Place: | 2 - No More War (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 - Saratoga Flash (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Steelin Bases (9/2), 5 - Full Nelson (8/1), 7 - Battle Of Dover (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Noble Tiger (20/1), 1 - Giftedbydesign (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-2-3-8-5-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 8-5-2-1-7-3-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1, |
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ
Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.
| Pick 3 R4-6 | R4: #4,#5,#6 (72%) / R5: #1,#6,#7 (55%) / R6: #2,#5,#6 (68%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27% |
| Pick 3 R5-7 | R5: #1,#6,#7 (55%) / R6: #2,#5,#6 (68%) / R7: #4,#7,#5 (65%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 24% |
| Pick 3 R6-8 | R6: #2,#5,#6 (68%) / R7: #4,#7,#5 (65%) / R8: #7,#4,#1 (61%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27% |
| Pick 3 R7-9 | R7: #4,#7,#5 (65%) / R8: #7,#4,#1 (61%) / R9: #8,#2,#3 (63%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25% |
| Pick 4 R4-7 | R4: #4,#5,#6 (72%) / R5: #1,#6,#7 (55%) / R6: #2,#5,#6 (68%) / R7: #4,#7,#5 (65%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 18% |
| Pick 4 R6-9 | R6: #2,#5,#6 (68%) / R7: #4,#7,#5 (65%) / R8: #7,#4,#1 (61%) / R9: #8,#2,#3 (63%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17% |
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
| ANY MOMENT | ARAUCANO | BABY PRINCESS | BASILICA LIGHT | BATTLE OF DOVER |
| CARCONE | CHING CHING | COME ON POPPI | CULTURE | DAKOTA'S LIL AUROR |
| DEMAR'S LEGACY | EVANORA | EXPERT WITNESS | FLY LIFE | FREE TO ROAM |
| GIFTEDBYDESIGN | GREENFIELD COUGAR | HENRY'S BUDDY | HIT MUSIC | IRON THE MONEY |
| JUDGE JUDITH | KIM WIN WIN | KISSED BY KARMA | LADY HELENE | LET LOOSE LUCY |
| LOVE HATE | LOVE LIKE LUCY | LOYALIST | MAJOR PRYCE | MISTER ABARRIO |
| MUSICAL DESIGN | MY HONEY MOTHER | MY SWEET BELLE | NO MORE WAR | NOBLE TIGER |
| RECONQUISTA | REPROCHE | ROCKIN EMPIRE | ROSES FOR MOLLY | RUSTY PISTOL |
| SARATOGA FLASH | SERRANIA | SHOW BOAT | SOFOCLES | SOFTLY DREAMING |
| SU WIN | SWEET TASTE | THE COROMOTO | TREE C'S KAI | VALIANT WINTER |
| VIKING QUEST | VITA MIA | VIVI GET YOUR GUNS | WINDRUSH | WINROOSKI |
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