Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Horseshoe Indianapolis, October 14, 2026


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Horseshoe Indianapolis — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 222 graded races at Horseshoe Indianapolis, 2026-08-18 to 2026-10-12.

0%10%20%30%39%Our top pick: 31.5% from 222 racesOur top pick31.5%Morning-line favourite: 28.8% from 222 racesMorning-line favourite28.8%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick31.5%222
Morning-line favourite28.8%222
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Tap Tap Tap It In (3/1)
Place:7The Exodus Twist (5/2)
Show:2Frosted Bull (7/2)
Other contenders:5Bekhamboy (3/1), 4Linebacker (15/1), 6Sathwik (10/1)
Rest of field:3Whatnowdaddy (15/1), 1Morning Power (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 872564
🎯 Longshots: 84765321
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,500
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Lil Gitana (3/2)
Place:7Tiz Sahara (4/1)
Show:2Prayer For Music (6/1)
Other contenders:5Alloutjustice (5/1), 4Prize Eyes (6/1)
Rest of field:6Brickhousejustice (8/1), 1La Peruana (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 372546
🎯 Longshots: 3715462
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,500
Win:7Tiva (8/5)
Place:1Misty Moon Song (3/1)
Show:6This Little Light (8/1)
Other contenders:4Lourenda (8/1), 3Kathi's Girl (10/1), 2Charming Justice (8/1)
Rest of field:5So Much Sunshine (6/1), 8Destiny Ina Bottle (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 716452
🎯 Longshots: 76143528
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3High Street Pizzaz (4/1)
Place:13Abha (2/1)
Show:8Twinklee (6/1)
Other contenders:9Pinpointed (3/1), 5Fancy Lady (6/1), 10Eleonora (8/1), 1Sono Bella (8/1)
Rest of field:11Copycat (6/1), 7Last Curtain Call (15/1), 4Stress Test (15/1), 2Dutch Girl (15/1), 6Serena's Surprise (30/1), 12Aubrey Mae (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 13398511
🎯 Longshots: 13109137811524126
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #13, #8, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $24,480
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Star Saver (3/1)
Place:2Run David Run (4/1)
Show:5Cause Ima Boss (6/1)
Other contenders:3Start Out (8/1), 9Pargo (7/2), 8Altimeter (12/1)
Rest of field:7Man Of The Hour (15/1), 6Chondrite (15/1), 4Put Me In Coach (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 125398
🎯 Longshots: 319642578
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $32,640
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:12Melody Man (7/2)
Place:9Knickadoo (3/1)
Show:7Pezzonovante (5/1)
Other contenders:3Go Chicago (9/2), 4Weekend Reveille (6/1), 6Federal Agent (10/1), 11Dark Rye (20/1)
Rest of field:10Creating Havoc (15/1), 2Volatile Spark (20/1), 1Dyno War (25/1), 5Dotties Blue Money (25/1), 8Adhemar (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1293746
🎯 Longshots: 129631171041528
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #9, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:8Victory On Ice (2/1)
Place:2Grandfather Sir (3/1)
Show:3Blues Rocker (9/2)
Other contenders:1Play Action (6/1), 5Azteca Alegre (12/1), 6Uncle Tuff (10/1)
Rest of field:7Suspenders (15/1), 4C V Hades (15/1), 10Nordic Prince (25/1), 9My Bumble Bee (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 823165
🎯 Longshots: 82316510749
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Great Kerry Lee (4/1)
Place:10Miso Speedy (9/2)
Show:9Super Dreamy (5/1)
Other contenders:2Ginger Ale (6/1), 1Mohawk Moon (10/1), 8Don's Joy (6/1), 12Lucky To Dance (6/1)
Rest of field:5Dad's Two Sense (15/1), 13Risky Wave (20/1), 11Snowglobe (20/1), 6Prime Time Lady (12/1), 7Speightsy Rival (30/1), 4Catnip Hill (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 31092812
🎯 Longshots: 15101113391228674
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #10, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Horseshoe Indianapolis — in-the-money rate

How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 133 graded races at Horseshoe Indianapolis, 2026-09-08 to 2026-10-12.

0%16%32%48%64%Our top pick: 51.1% from 133 racesOur top pick51.1%Morning-line favourite: 48.9% from 133 racesMorning-line favourite48.9%

In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick51.1%133
Morning-line favourite48.9%133
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:8Tap Tap Tap It In (3/1) 40% · fair 3-2 overlay +97%
Place:7The Exodus Twist (5/2) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -46%
Show:2Frosted Bull (7/2) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -45%
Other contenders:5Bekhamboy (3/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -61%, 4Linebacker (15/1) 6% · fair 17-1, 6Sathwik (10/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -53%
Rest of field:1Morning Power (12/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -53%, 3Whatnowdaddy (15/1) 4% · fair 55-2 underlay -45%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Tap Tap Tap It In — 39.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Tap Tap Tap It In39.6% ◀The Exodus Twist — 17.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1The Exodus Twist17.7%Frosted Bull — 13.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Frosted Bull13.6%Bekhamboy — 11.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Bekhamboy11.6%Linebacker — 5.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Linebacker5.6%Sathwik — 4.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Sathwik4.5%Morning Power — 3.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Morning Power3.8%Whatnowdaddy — 3.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Whatnowdaddy3.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Tap Tap Tap It In39.6%3/1
The Exodus Twist17.7%2.5/1
Frosted Bull13.6%3.5/1
Bekhamboy11.6%3/1
Linebacker5.6%15/1
Sathwik4.5%10/1
Morning Power3.8%12/1
Whatnowdaddy3.5%15/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTap Tap Tap It In: model 39.6% vs market 19.2% (+20.4 points)Tap Tap Tap It In+20.4The Exodus Twist: model 17.7% vs market 22.0% (-4.3 points)The Exodus Twist-4.3Frosted Bull: model 13.6% vs market 17.1% (-3.4 points)Frosted Bull-3.4Bekhamboy: model 11.6% vs market 19.2% (-7.7 points)Bekhamboy-7.7Linebacker: model 5.6% vs market 4.8% (+0.8 points)Linebacker+0.8Sathwik: model 4.5% vs market 7.0% (-2.5 points)Sathwik-2.5Morning Power: model 3.8% vs market 5.9% (-2.1 points)Morning Power-2.1Whatnowdaddy: model 3.5% vs market 4.8% (-1.3 points)Whatnowdaddy-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Tap Tap Tap It In39.6%19.2%+20.4
The Exodus Twist17.7%22.0%-4.3
Frosted Bull13.6%17.1%-3.4
Bekhamboy11.6%19.2%-7.7
Linebacker5.6%4.8%+0.8
Sathwik4.5%7.0%-2.5
Morning Power3.8%5.9%-2.1
Whatnowdaddy3.5%4.8%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 875261
🎯 Longshots: 84765321
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,500
Win:3Lil Gitana (3/2) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -50%
Place:7Tiz Sahara (4/1) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:2Prayer For Music (6/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:6Brickhousejustice (8/1) 13% · fair 7-1, 4Prize Eyes (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Rest of field:5Alloutjustice (5/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -45%, 1La Peruana (12/1) 6% · fair 15-1
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Lil Gitana — 24.8% win probability, morning line 1.5/1Lil Gitana24.8% ◀Tiz Sahara — 18.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Tiz Sahara18.5%Prayer For Music — 16.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Prayer For Music16.3%Brickhousejustice — 12.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Brickhousejustice12.5%Prize Eyes — 11.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Prize Eyes11.7%Alloutjustice — 9.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Alloutjustice9.9%La Peruana — 6.3% win probability, morning line 12/1La Peruana6.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Lil Gitana24.8%1.5/1
Tiz Sahara18.5%4/1
Prayer For Music16.3%6/1
Brickhousejustice12.5%8/1
Prize Eyes11.7%6/1
Alloutjustice9.9%5/1
La Peruana6.3%12/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherLil Gitana: model 24.8% vs market 32.2% (-7.4 points)Lil Gitana-7.4Tiz Sahara: model 18.5% vs market 16.1% (+2.4 points)Tiz Sahara+2.4Prayer For Music: model 16.3% vs market 11.5% (+4.8 points)Prayer For Music+4.8Brickhousejustice: model 12.5% vs market 9.0% (+3.6 points)Brickhousejustice+3.6Prize Eyes: model 11.7% vs market 11.5% (+0.2 points)Prize Eyes+0.2Alloutjustice: model 9.9% vs market 13.4% (-3.6 points)Alloutjustice-3.6La Peruana: model 6.3% vs market 6.2% (+0.1 points)La Peruana+0.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Lil Gitana24.8%32.2%-7.4
Tiz Sahara18.5%16.1%+2.4
Prayer For Music16.3%11.5%+4.8
Brickhousejustice12.5%9.0%+3.6
Prize Eyes11.7%11.5%+0.2
Alloutjustice9.9%13.4%-3.6
La Peruana6.3%6.2%+0.1
🌧️ Off-track: 372456
🎯 Longshots: 3715462
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,500
Win:7Tiva (8/5) 29% · fair 5-2 underlay -34%
Place:1Misty Moon Song (3/1) 28% · fair 5-2
Show:4Lourenda (8/1) 11% · fair 17-2
Other contenders:5So Much Sunshine (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -43%, 6This Little Light (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -30%, 2Charming Justice (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -42%
Rest of field:3Kathi's Girl (10/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -48%, 8Destiny Ina Bottle (20/1) 4% · fair 27-1 underlay -26%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Tiva — 29.3% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Tiva29.3% ◀Misty Moon Song — 28.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Misty Moon Song28.2%Lourenda — 10.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Lourenda10.6%So Much Sunshine — 8.6% win probability, morning line 6/1So Much Sunshine8.6%This Little Light — 8.0% win probability, morning line 8/1This Little Light8.0%Charming Justice — 6.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Charming Justice6.7%Kathi'S Girl — 5.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Kathi'S Girl5.0%Destiny Ina Bottle — 3.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Destiny Ina Bottle3.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Tiva29.3%1.6/1
Misty Moon Song28.2%3/1
Lourenda10.6%8/1
So Much Sunshine8.6%6/1
This Little Light8.0%8/1
Charming Justice6.7%8/1
Kathi'S Girl5.0%10/1
Destiny Ina Bottle3.6%20/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTiva: model 29.3% vs market 30.8% (-1.5 points)Tiva-1.5Misty Moon Song: model 28.2% vs market 20.0% (+8.2 points)Misty Moon Song+8.2Lourenda: model 10.6% vs market 8.9% (+1.7 points)Lourenda+1.7So Much Sunshine: model 8.6% vs market 11.4% (-2.8 points)So Much Sunshine-2.8This Little Light: model 8.0% vs market 8.9% (-0.9 points)This Little Light-0.9Charming Justice: model 6.7% vs market 8.9% (-2.2 points)Charming Justice-2.2Kathi'S Girl: model 5.0% vs market 7.3% (-2.3 points)Kathi'S Girl-2.3Destiny Ina Bottle: model 3.6% vs market 3.8% (-0.2 points)Destiny Ina Bottle-0.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Tiva29.3%30.8%-1.5
Misty Moon Song28.2%20.0%+8.2
Lourenda10.6%8.9%+1.7
So Much Sunshine8.6%11.4%-2.8
This Little Light8.0%8.9%-0.9
Charming Justice6.7%8.9%-2.2
Kathi'S Girl5.0%7.3%-2.3
Destiny Ina Bottle3.6%3.8%-0.2
🌧️ Off-track: 715462
🎯 Longshots: 76143528
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:8Twinklee (6/1) 21% · fair 4-1 overlay +58%
Place:3High Street Pizzaz (4/1) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:13Abha (2/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -69%
Other contenders:9Pinpointed (3/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -71%, 1Sono Bella (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 10Eleonora (8/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -48%, 11Copycat (6/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -62%
Rest of field:5Fancy Lady (6/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -65%, 7Last Curtain Call (15/1) 4% · fair 55-2 underlay -45%, 2Dutch Girl (15/1) 3% · fair 34-1 underlay -56%, 12Aubrey Mae (15/1) 3% · fair 36-1 underlay -58%, 6Serena's Surprise (30/1) 2% · fair 107-2 underlay -44%, 4Stress Test (15/1) 2% · fair 65-1 underlay -77%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Twinklee — 20.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Twinklee20.8% ◀High Street Pizzaz — 18.4% win probability, morning line 4/1High Street Pizzaz18.4%Abha — 13.3% win probability, morning line 2/1Abha13.3%Pinpointed — 8.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Pinpointed8.8%Sono Bella — 8.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Sono Bella8.7%Eleonora — 6.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Eleonora6.1%Copycat — 5.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Copycat5.9%Fancy Lady — 5.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Fancy Lady5.5%Last Curtain Call — 3.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Last Curtain Call3.5%Dutch Girl — 2.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Dutch Girl2.9%Aubrey Mae — 2.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Aubrey Mae2.7%Serena'S Surprise — 1.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Serena'S Surprise1.8%Stress Test — 1.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Stress Test1.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Twinklee20.8%6/1
High Street Pizzaz18.4%4/1
Abha13.3%2/1
Pinpointed8.8%3/1
Sono Bella8.7%8/1
Eleonora6.1%8/1
Copycat5.9%6/1
Fancy Lady5.5%6/1
Last Curtain Call3.5%15/1
Dutch Girl2.9%15/1
Aubrey Mae2.7%15/1
Serena'S Surprise1.8%30/1
Stress Test1.5%15/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherTwinklee: model 20.8% vs market 8.3% (+12.5 points)Twinklee+12.5High Street Pizzaz: model 18.4% vs market 11.7% (+6.7 points)High Street Pizzaz+6.7Abha: model 13.3% vs market 19.4% (-6.1 points)Abha-6.1Pinpointed: model 8.8% vs market 14.6% (-5.7 points)Pinpointed-5.7Sono Bella: model 8.7% vs market 6.5% (+2.2 points)Sono Bella+2.2Eleonora: model 6.1% vs market 6.5% (-0.4 points)Eleonora-0.4Copycat: model 5.9% vs market 8.3% (-2.4 points)Copycat-2.4Fancy Lady: model 5.5% vs market 8.3% (-2.8 points)Fancy Lady-2.8Last Curtain Call: model 3.5% vs market 3.6% (-0.1 points)Last Curtain Call-0.1Dutch Girl: model 2.9% vs market 3.6% (-0.8 points)Dutch Girl-0.8Aubrey Mae: model 2.7% vs market 3.6% (-0.9 points)Aubrey Mae-0.9Serena'S Surprise: model 1.8% vs market 1.9% (-0.0 points)Serena'S Surprise-0.0Stress Test: model 1.5% vs market 3.6% (-2.1 points)Stress Test-2.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Twinklee20.8%8.3%+12.5
High Street Pizzaz18.4%11.7%+6.7
Abha13.3%19.4%-6.1
Pinpointed8.8%14.6%-5.7
Sono Bella8.7%6.5%+2.2
Eleonora6.1%6.5%-0.4
Copycat5.9%8.3%-2.4
Fancy Lady5.5%8.3%-2.8
Last Curtain Call3.5%3.6%-0.1
Dutch Girl2.9%3.6%-0.8
Aubrey Mae2.7%3.6%-0.9
Serena'S Surprise1.8%1.9%-0.0
Stress Test1.5%3.6%-2.1
🌧️ Off-track: 13389111
🎯 Longshots: 13109137811524126
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #13, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $24,480
Win:1Star Saver (3/1) 24% · fair 3-1
Place:9Pargo (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -30%
Show:2Run David Run (4/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:5Cause Ima Boss (6/1) 13% · fair 7-1, 3Start Out (8/1) 11% · fair 15-2, 6Chondrite (15/1) 6% · fair 16-1
Rest of field:8Altimeter (12/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -30%, 7Man Of The Hour (15/1) 4% · fair 25-1 underlay -40%, 4Put Me In Coach (10/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -61%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Star Saver — 24.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Star Saver24.2% ◀Pargo — 16.6% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Pargo16.6%Run David Run — 16.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Run David Run16.1%Cause Ima Boss — 12.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Cause Ima Boss12.8%Start Out — 11.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Start Out11.5%Chondrite — 5.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Chondrite5.8%Altimeter — 5.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Altimeter5.5%Man Of The Hour — 3.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Man Of The Hour3.8%Put Me In Coach — 3.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Put Me In Coach3.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Star Saver24.2%3/1
Pargo16.6%3.5/1
Run David Run16.1%4/1
Cause Ima Boss12.8%6/1
Start Out11.5%8/1
Chondrite5.8%15/1
Altimeter5.5%12/1
Man Of The Hour3.8%15/1
Put Me In Coach3.7%10/1
🌧️ Off-track: 192534
🎯 Longshots: 319642578
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #9, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $32,640
Win:12Melody Man (7/2) 33% · fair 2-1 overlay +69%
Place:7Pezzonovante (5/1) 17% · fair 9-2
Show:9Knickadoo (3/1) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -58%
Other contenders:3Go Chicago (9/2) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -47%, 4Weekend Reveille (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -33%, 6Federal Agent (10/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -51%, 11Dark Rye (20/1) 4% · fair 23-1
Rest of field:10Creating Havoc (15/1) 2% · fair 40-1 underlay -63%, 2Volatile Spark (20/1) 2% · fair 53-1 underlay -62%, 5Dotties Blue Money (25/1) 2% · fair 119-2 underlay -58%, 8Adhemar (25/1) 2% · fair 125-2 underlay -60%, 1Dyno War (25/1) 1% · fair 201-2 underlay -75%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Melody Man — 32.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Melody Man32.5% ◀Pezzonovante — 17.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Pezzonovante17.4%Knickadoo — 12.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Knickadoo12.3%Go Chicago — 10.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Go Chicago10.5%Weekend Reveille — 10.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Weekend Reveille10.0%Federal Agent — 4.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Federal Agent4.7%Dark Rye — 4.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Dark Rye4.1%Creating Havoc — 2.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Creating Havoc2.4%Volatile Spark — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Volatile Spark1.9%Dotties Blue Money — 1.7% win probability, morning line 25/1Dotties Blue Money1.7%Adhemar — 1.6% win probability, morning line 25/1Adhemar1.6%Dyno War — 1.0% win probability, morning line 25/1Dyno War1.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Melody Man32.5%3.5/1
Pezzonovante17.4%5/1
Knickadoo12.3%3/1
Go Chicago10.5%4.5/1
Weekend Reveille10.0%6/1
Federal Agent4.7%10/1
Dark Rye4.1%20/1
Creating Havoc2.4%15/1
Volatile Spark1.9%20/1
Dotties Blue Money1.7%25/1
Adhemar1.6%25/1
Dyno War1.0%25/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMelody Man: model 32.5% vs market 16.7% (+15.8 points)Melody Man+15.8Pezzonovante: model 17.4% vs market 12.6% (+4.8 points)Pezzonovante+4.8Knickadoo: model 12.3% vs market 18.8% (-6.6 points)Knickadoo-6.6Go Chicago: model 10.5% vs market 13.7% (-3.2 points)Go Chicago-3.2Weekend Reveille: model 10.0% vs market 10.8% (-0.8 points)Weekend Reveille-0.8Federal Agent: model 4.7% vs market 6.8% (-2.1 points)Federal Agent-2.1Dark Rye: model 4.1% vs market 3.6% (+0.5 points)Dark Rye+0.5Creating Havoc: model 2.4% vs market 4.7% (-2.3 points)Creating Havoc-2.3Volatile Spark: model 1.9% vs market 3.6% (-1.7 points)Volatile Spark-1.7Dotties Blue Money: model 1.7% vs market 2.9% (-1.2 points)Dotties Blue Money-1.2Adhemar: model 1.6% vs market 2.9% (-1.3 points)Adhemar-1.3Dyno War: model 1.0% vs market 2.9% (-1.9 points)Dyno War-1.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Melody Man32.5%16.7%+15.8
Pezzonovante17.4%12.6%+4.8
Knickadoo12.3%18.8%-6.6
Go Chicago10.5%13.7%-3.2
Weekend Reveille10.0%10.8%-0.8
Federal Agent4.7%6.8%-2.1
Dark Rye4.1%3.6%+0.5
Creating Havoc2.4%4.7%-2.3
Volatile Spark1.9%3.6%-1.7
Dotties Blue Money1.7%2.9%-1.2
Adhemar1.6%2.9%-1.3
Dyno War1.0%2.9%-1.9
🌧️ Off-track: 1297346
🎯 Longshots: 129631171041528
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #7, #9, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:8Victory On Ice (2/1) 42% · fair 3-2 overlay +47%
Place:2Grandfather Sir (3/1) 27% · fair 5-2
Show:3Blues Rocker (9/2) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -47%
Other contenders:1Play Action (6/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -64%, 5Azteca Alegre (12/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -45%, 6Uncle Tuff (10/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -66%
Rest of field:7Suspenders (15/1) 2% · fair 45-1 underlay -67%, 4C V Hades (15/1) 2% · fair 49-1 underlay -69%, 10Nordic Prince (25/1) 1% · fair 71-1 underlay -65%, 9My Bumble Bee (20/1) 1% · fair 169-2 underlay -76%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Victory On Ice — 42.4% win probability, morning line 2/1Victory On Ice42.4% ◀Grandfather Sir — 27.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Grandfather Sir27.0%Blues Rocker — 10.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Blues Rocker10.5%Play Action — 5.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Play Action5.6%Azteca Alegre — 4.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Azteca Alegre4.4%Uncle Tuff — 3.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Uncle Tuff3.3%Suspenders — 2.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Suspenders2.2%C V Hades — 2.0% win probability, morning line 15/1C V Hades2.0%Nordic Prince — 1.4% win probability, morning line 25/1Nordic Prince1.4%My Bumble Bee — 1.2% win probability, morning line 20/1My Bumble Bee1.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Victory On Ice42.4%2/1
Grandfather Sir27.0%3/1
Blues Rocker10.5%4.5/1
Play Action5.6%6/1
Azteca Alegre4.4%12/1
Uncle Tuff3.3%10/1
Suspenders2.2%15/1
C V Hades2.0%15/1
Nordic Prince1.4%25/1
My Bumble Bee1.2%20/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherVictory On Ice: model 42.4% vs market 25.9% (+16.5 points)Victory On Ice+16.5Grandfather Sir: model 27.0% vs market 19.4% (+7.5 points)Grandfather Sir+7.5Blues Rocker: model 10.5% vs market 14.1% (-3.6 points)Blues Rocker-3.6Play Action: model 5.6% vs market 11.1% (-5.5 points)Play Action-5.5Azteca Alegre: model 4.4% vs market 6.0% (-1.6 points)Azteca Alegre-1.6Uncle Tuff: model 3.3% vs market 7.1% (-3.7 points)Uncle Tuff-3.7Suspenders: model 2.2% vs market 4.9% (-2.7 points)Suspenders-2.7C V Hades: model 2.0% vs market 4.9% (-2.8 points)C V Hades-2.8Nordic Prince: model 1.4% vs market 3.0% (-1.6 points)Nordic Prince-1.6My Bumble Bee: model 1.2% vs market 3.7% (-2.5 points)My Bumble Bee-2.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Victory On Ice42.4%25.9%+16.5
Grandfather Sir27.0%19.4%+7.5
Blues Rocker10.5%14.1%-3.6
Play Action5.6%11.1%-5.5
Azteca Alegre4.4%6.0%-1.6
Uncle Tuff3.3%7.1%-3.7
Suspenders2.2%4.9%-2.7
C V Hades2.0%4.9%-2.8
Nordic Prince1.4%3.0%-1.6
My Bumble Bee1.2%3.7%-2.5
🌧️ Off-track: 823165
🎯 Longshots: 82316510749
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:3Great Kerry Lee (4/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Place:9Super Dreamy (5/1) 15% · fair 11-2
Show:2Ginger Ale (6/1) 14% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:10Miso Speedy (9/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -27%, 1Mohawk Moon (10/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 8Don's Joy (6/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -46%, 12Lucky To Dance (6/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -47%
Rest of field:5Dad's Two Sense (15/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -48%, 13Risky Wave (20/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -40%, 11Snowglobe (20/1) 2% · fair 52-1 underlay -62%, 6Prime Time Lady (12/1) 1% · fair 133-2 underlay -82%, 7Speightsy Rival (30/1) 1% · fair 191-2 underlay -69%, 4Catnip Hill (30/1) 0% · fair 789-2 underlay -92%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Great Kerry Lee — 19.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Great Kerry Lee19.6% ◀Super Dreamy — 15.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Super Dreamy15.3%Ginger Ale — 14.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Ginger Ale14.1%Miso Speedy — 14.0% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Miso Speedy14.0%Mohawk Moon — 9.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Mohawk Moon9.8%Don'S Joy — 8.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Don'S Joy8.2%Lucky To Dance — 8.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Lucky To Dance8.1%Dad'S Two Sense — 3.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Dad'S Two Sense3.3%Risky Wave — 2.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Risky Wave2.9%Snowglobe — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Snowglobe1.9%Prime Time Lady — 1.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Prime Time Lady1.5%Speightsy Rival — 1.0% win probability, morning line 30/1Speightsy Rival1.0%Catnip Hill — 0.3% win probability, morning line 30/1Catnip Hill0.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Great Kerry Lee19.6%4/1
Super Dreamy15.3%5/1
Ginger Ale14.1%6/1
Miso Speedy14.0%4.5/1
Mohawk Moon9.8%10/1
Don'S Joy8.2%6/1
Lucky To Dance8.1%6/1
Dad'S Two Sense3.3%15/1
Risky Wave2.9%20/1
Snowglobe1.9%20/1
Prime Time Lady1.5%12/1
Speightsy Rival1.0%30/1
Catnip Hill0.3%30/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGreat Kerry Lee: model 19.6% vs market 14.6% (+5.0 points)Great Kerry Lee+5.0Super Dreamy: model 15.3% vs market 12.2% (+3.1 points)Super Dreamy+3.1Ginger Ale: model 14.1% vs market 10.4% (+3.7 points)Ginger Ale+3.7Miso Speedy: model 14.0% vs market 13.3% (+0.7 points)Miso Speedy+0.7Mohawk Moon: model 9.8% vs market 6.6% (+3.1 points)Mohawk Moon+3.1Don'S Joy: model 8.2% vs market 10.4% (-2.2 points)Don'S Joy-2.2Lucky To Dance: model 8.1% vs market 10.4% (-2.4 points)Lucky To Dance-2.4Dad'S Two Sense: model 3.3% vs market 4.6% (-1.3 points)Dad'S Two Sense-1.3Risky Wave: model 2.9% vs market 3.5% (-0.6 points)Risky Wave-0.6Snowglobe: model 1.9% vs market 3.5% (-1.6 points)Snowglobe-1.6Prime Time Lady: model 1.5% vs market 5.6% (-4.1 points)Prime Time Lady-4.1Speightsy Rival: model 1.0% vs market 2.4% (-1.3 points)Speightsy Rival-1.3Catnip Hill: model 0.3% vs market 2.4% (-2.1 points)Catnip Hill-2.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Great Kerry Lee19.6%14.6%+5.0
Super Dreamy15.3%12.2%+3.1
Ginger Ale14.1%10.4%+3.7
Miso Speedy14.0%13.3%+0.7
Mohawk Moon9.8%6.6%+3.1
Don'S Joy8.2%10.4%-2.2
Lucky To Dance8.1%10.4%-2.4
Dad'S Two Sense3.3%4.6%-1.3
Risky Wave2.9%3.5%-0.6
Snowglobe1.9%3.5%-1.6
Prime Time Lady1.5%5.6%-4.1
Speightsy Rival1.0%2.4%-1.3
Catnip Hill0.3%2.4%-2.1
🌧️ Off-track: 39102812
🎯 Longshots: 15101113391228674
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #2, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:8Tap Tap Tap It In (3/1)
Place:7The Exodus Twist (5/2)
Show:5Bekhamboy (3/1)
Other contenders:2Frosted Bull (7/2), 4Linebacker (15/1), 6Sathwik (10/1)
Rest of field:3Whatnowdaddy (15/1), 1Morning Power (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 875264
🎯 Longshots: 84765321
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,500
Win:3Lil Gitana (3/2)
Place:1La Peruana (12/1)
Show:2Prayer For Music (6/1)
Other contenders:7Tiz Sahara (4/1), 4Prize Eyes (6/1)
Rest of field:6Brickhousejustice (8/1), 5Alloutjustice (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 372541
🎯 Longshots: 3715462
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,500
Win:7Tiva (8/5)
Place:1Misty Moon Song (3/1)
Show:6This Little Light (8/1)
Other contenders:3Kathi's Girl (10/1), 4Lourenda (8/1), 5So Much Sunshine (6/1)
Rest of field:2Charming Justice (8/1), 8Destiny Ina Bottle (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 716534
🎯 Longshots: 76143528
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:3High Street Pizzaz (4/1)
Place:10Eleonora (8/1)
Show:13Abha (2/1)
Other contenders:9Pinpointed (3/1), 5Fancy Lady (6/1), 8Twinklee (6/1), 1Sono Bella (8/1)
Rest of field:7Last Curtain Call (15/1), 11Copycat (6/1), 4Stress Test (15/1), 12Aubrey Mae (15/1), 6Serena's Surprise (30/1), 2Dutch Girl (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 13395810
🎯 Longshots: 13109137811524126
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #10, #13, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $24,480
Win:1Star Saver (3/1)
Place:3Start Out (8/1)
Show:9Pargo (7/2)
Other contenders:2Run David Run (4/1), 5Cause Ima Boss (6/1), 8Altimeter (12/1)
Rest of field:6Chondrite (15/1), 4Put Me In Coach (10/1), 7Man Of The Hour (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 192358
🎯 Longshots: 319642578
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $32,640
Win:12Melody Man (7/2)
Place:7Pezzonovante (5/1)
Show:6Federal Agent (10/1)
Other contenders:4Weekend Reveille (6/1), 9Knickadoo (3/1), 3Go Chicago (9/2), 11Dark Rye (20/1)
Rest of field:2Volatile Spark (20/1), 10Creating Havoc (15/1), 1Dyno War (25/1), 5Dotties Blue Money (25/1), 8Adhemar (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1297346
🎯 Longshots: 129631171041528
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #7, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:2Grandfather Sir (3/1)
Place:8Victory On Ice (2/1)
Show:1Play Action (6/1)
Other contenders:6Uncle Tuff (10/1), 10Nordic Prince (25/1), 3Blues Rocker (9/2)
Rest of field:7Suspenders (15/1), 5Azteca Alegre (12/1), 4C V Hades (15/1), 9My Bumble Bee (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 823167
🎯 Longshots: 82316510749
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #8, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:3Great Kerry Lee (4/1)
Place:10Miso Speedy (9/2)
Show:12Lucky To Dance (6/1)
Other contenders:2Ginger Ale (6/1), 1Mohawk Moon (10/1), 8Don's Joy (6/1), 9Super Dreamy (5/1)
Rest of field:5Dad's Two Sense (15/1), 7Speightsy Rival (30/1), 13Risky Wave (20/1), 6Prime Time Lady (12/1), 11Snowglobe (20/1), 4Catnip Hill (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 31012928
🎯 Longshots: 15101113391228674
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #10, #12, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #8 over #7 ($1 straight; box #8-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #7, #2, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #3 over #7 ($1 straight; box #3-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #2, #7, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #7 over #1 ($1 straight; box #7-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #1, #6, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #13 over #3 ($1 straight; box #13-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #9, #13, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #1 over #9 ($1 straight; box #1-#9 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #3, #9, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #12 over #9 ($1 straight; box #12-#9 for cover)
Trifecta: #12 over #7, #6, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #8 over #2 ($1 straight; box #8-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #2, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #3 over #10 ($1 straight; box #3-#10 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #10, #1, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.37 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.95 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
611Dark Rye ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer20/1—7.0%+44.7%0.56%$0.56
710Nordic Prince ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer25/1—4.7%+21.0%0.21%$0.21
813Risky Wave ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer20/1—5.5%+15.5%0.19%$0.19
81Mohawk Moon10/1—10.4%+13.6%0.34%$0.34
87Speightsy Rival ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer30/1—3.7%+13.1%0.11%$0.11
811Snowglobe ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer20/1—5.4%+12.0%0.15%$0.15
44Stress Test15/1—7.0%+10.6%0.18%$0.18
TOTAL across 7 plays:1.7%$1.74
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:8Tap Tap Tap It In (3/1)
Place:7The Exodus Twist (5/2)
Show:5Bekhamboy (3/1)
Other contenders:2Frosted Bull (7/2), 4Linebacker (15/1), 6Sathwik (10/1)
Rest of field:3Whatnowdaddy (15/1), 1Morning Power (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 875264
🎯 Longshots: 84765321
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,500
Win:3Lil Gitana (3/2)
Place:7Tiz Sahara (4/1)
Show:2Prayer For Music (6/1)
Other contenders:5Alloutjustice (5/1), 4Prize Eyes (6/1)
Rest of field:6Brickhousejustice (8/1), 1La Peruana (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 375246
🎯 Longshots: 3715462
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,500
Win:7Tiva (8/5)
Place:1Misty Moon Song (3/1)
Show:6This Little Light (8/1)
Other contenders:4Lourenda (8/1), 5So Much Sunshine (6/1), 3Kathi's Girl (10/1)
Rest of field:2Charming Justice (8/1), 8Destiny Ina Bottle (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 716542
🎯 Longshots: 76143528
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:13Abha (2/1)
Place:11Copycat (6/1)
Show:3High Street Pizzaz (4/1)
Other contenders:9Pinpointed (3/1), 5Fancy Lady (6/1), 1Sono Bella (8/1), 10Eleonora (8/1)
Rest of field:8Twinklee (6/1), 4Stress Test (15/1), 7Last Curtain Call (15/1), 12Aubrey Mae (15/1), 2Dutch Girl (15/1), 6Serena's Surprise (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 13931158
🎯 Longshots: 13109137811524126
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #11, #3, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $24,480
Win:1Star Saver (3/1)
Place:3Start Out (8/1)
Show:2Run David Run (4/1)
Other contenders:9Pargo (7/2), 5Cause Ima Boss (6/1), 4Put Me In Coach (10/1)
Rest of field:6Chondrite (15/1), 8Altimeter (12/1), 7Man Of The Hour (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 192534
🎯 Longshots: 319642578
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #2, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $32,640
Win:6Federal Agent (10/1)
Place:12Melody Man (7/2)
Show:7Pezzonovante (5/1)
Other contenders:3Go Chicago (9/2), 9Knickadoo (3/1), 4Weekend Reveille (6/1), 11Dark Rye (20/1)
Rest of field:10Creating Havoc (15/1), 2Volatile Spark (20/1), 5Dotties Blue Money (25/1), 1Dyno War (25/1), 8Adhemar (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1293746
🎯 Longshots: 129631171041528
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #12, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:8Victory On Ice (2/1)
Place:2Grandfather Sir (3/1)
Show:3Blues Rocker (9/2)
Other contenders:1Play Action (6/1), 6Uncle Tuff (10/1), 10Nordic Prince (25/1)
Rest of field:5Azteca Alegre (12/1), 7Suspenders (15/1), 4C V Hades (15/1), 9My Bumble Bee (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 823165
🎯 Longshots: 82316510749
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:10Miso Speedy (9/2)
Place:3Great Kerry Lee (4/1)
Show:9Super Dreamy (5/1)
Other contenders:8Don's Joy (6/1), 5Dad's Two Sense (15/1), 12Lucky To Dance (6/1), 1Mohawk Moon (10/1)
Rest of field:2Ginger Ale (6/1), 6Prime Time Lady (12/1), 13Risky Wave (20/1), 11Snowglobe (20/1), 7Speightsy Rival (30/1), 4Catnip Hill (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 31098122
🎯 Longshots: 15101113391228674
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #3, #9, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:8Tap Tap Tap It In (3/1)
Place:7The Exodus Twist (5/2)
Show:2Frosted Bull (7/2)
Other contenders:5Bekhamboy (3/1), 4Linebacker (15/1), 1Morning Power (12/1)
Rest of field:6Sathwik (10/1), 3Whatnowdaddy (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 875261
🎯 Longshots: 84765321
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,500
Win:3Lil Gitana (3/2)
Place:2Prayer For Music (6/1)
Show:7Tiz Sahara (4/1)
Other contenders:1La Peruana (12/1), 4Prize Eyes (6/1)
Rest of field:5Alloutjustice (5/1), 6Brickhousejustice (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 372546
🎯 Longshots: 3715462
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,500
Win:7Tiva (8/5)
Place:1Misty Moon Song (3/1)
Show:6This Little Light (8/1)
Other contenders:4Lourenda (8/1), 3Kathi's Girl (10/1), 5So Much Sunshine (6/1)
Rest of field:2Charming Justice (8/1), 8Destiny Ina Bottle (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 716542
🎯 Longshots: 76143528
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:3High Street Pizzaz (4/1)
Place:9Pinpointed (3/1)
Show:13Abha (2/1)
Other contenders:1Sono Bella (8/1), 10Eleonora (8/1), 8Twinklee (6/1), 5Fancy Lady (6/1)
Rest of field:11Copycat (6/1), 4Stress Test (15/1), 7Last Curtain Call (15/1), 12Aubrey Mae (15/1), 2Dutch Girl (15/1), 6Serena's Surprise (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1393851
🎯 Longshots: 13109137811524126
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #13, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $24,480
Win:1Star Saver (3/1)
Place:3Start Out (8/1)
Show:9Pargo (7/2)
Other contenders:2Run David Run (4/1), 5Cause Ima Boss (6/1), 6Chondrite (15/1)
Rest of field:8Altimeter (12/1), 4Put Me In Coach (10/1), 7Man Of The Hour (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 192354
🎯 Longshots: 319642578
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $32,640
Win:12Melody Man (7/2)
Place:7Pezzonovante (5/1)
Show:6Federal Agent (10/1)
Other contenders:9Knickadoo (3/1), 4Weekend Reveille (6/1), 3Go Chicago (9/2), 11Dark Rye (20/1)
Rest of field:10Creating Havoc (15/1), 2Volatile Spark (20/1), 5Dotties Blue Money (25/1), 1Dyno War (25/1), 8Adhemar (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1297346
🎯 Longshots: 129631171041528
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #7, #6, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:8Victory On Ice (2/1)
Place:2Grandfather Sir (3/1)
Show:3Blues Rocker (9/2)
Other contenders:1Play Action (6/1), 6Uncle Tuff (10/1), 7Suspenders (15/1)
Rest of field:10Nordic Prince (25/1), 5Azteca Alegre (12/1), 4C V Hades (15/1), 9My Bumble Bee (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 823165
🎯 Longshots: 82316510749
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:3Great Kerry Lee (4/1)
Place:10Miso Speedy (9/2)
Show:1Mohawk Moon (10/1)
Other contenders:9Super Dreamy (5/1), 8Don's Joy (6/1), 2Ginger Ale (6/1), 12Lucky To Dance (6/1)
Rest of field:5Dad's Two Sense (15/1), 11Snowglobe (20/1), 13Risky Wave (20/1), 7Speightsy Rival (30/1), 6Prime Time Lady (12/1), 4Catnip Hill (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 31098212
🎯 Longshots: 15101113391228674
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #10, #1, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #8,#7,#2 (71%) / R2: #3,#7,#2 (60%) / R3: #7,#1,#4 (68%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #3,#7,#2 (60%) / R3: #7,#1,#4 (68%) / R4: #8,#3,#13 (52%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #1,#9,#2 (57%) / R6: #12,#7,#9 (62%) / R7: #8,#2 (69%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #12,#7,#9 (62%) / R7: #8,#2 (69%) / R8: #3,#9,#2 (49%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Pick 4 R4-7R4: #8,#3,#13 (52%) / R5: #1,#9,#2 (57%) / R6: #12,#7,#9 (62%) / R7: #8,#2 (69%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 13%
Pick 4 R5-8R5: #1,#9,#2 (57%) / R6: #12,#7,#9 (62%) / R7: #8,#2 (69%) / R8: #3,#9,#2 (49%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 12%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ABHAADHEMARALLOUTJUSTICEALTIMETERAPH BATTLE CAPTAIN
AZTECA ALEGREBEKHAMBOYBLUES ROCKERBRICKHOUSEJUSTICEC V HADES
CAUSE IMA BOSSCHARMING JUSTICECHONDRITECOPYCATCREATING HAVOC
DALE MDARK RYEDESTINY INA BOTTLEDON'S JOYDOTTIES BLUE MONEY
DYNASTY APOLLITICALDYNO WARELEONORAFANCY LADYFEDERAL AGENT
FROSTED BULLGINGER ALEGO CHICAGOGRANDFATHER SIRGREAT KERRY LEE
KATHI'S GIRLKNICKADOOLA PERUANALAST CURTAIN CALLLB ROYAL QUICK PERRY
LINEBACKERLOURENDALUCKY TO DANCEMAN OF THE HOURMELODY MAN
MISS KTB 23MISS PEMBERVILLEMISTY MOON SONGMOHAWK MOONMORNING POWER
NIGHTY MOON FLASHNORDIC PRINCEPARGOPEZZONOVANTEPINPOINTED
PRAYER FOR MUSICPRIME TIME LADYPRIZE EYESPUT ME IN COACHRHINO SIX
RUN DAVID RUNSATHWIKSERENA'S SURPRISESM COWBOYS JEWELSNOWGLOBE
SONO BELLASPEIGHTSY RIVALSTAR SAVERSTART OUTSTRESS TEST
SUSPENDERSTAP TAP TAP IT INTHE EXODUS TWISTTHIS LITTLE LIGHTTIVA
TWINKLEEUN D NYABLEUNCLE TUFFVICTORY ON ICEVM GIRLS FLYINHIGHER
WANNA SWEET TREETWEEKEND REVEILLEWHATNOWDADDYZOOMIN CARTEL6

 


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