How did these picks do?
Results for this card as of 7:34 AM, graded from the official charts. Each row is that section's top pick in every race with a result; races still pending are not counted. The full week is in the weekly recap.
| Section | Races graded | Won | 2nd | 3rd | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algo 1 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14% |
| Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 43% |
| Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0% |
| Experimental Weight Set 2 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 12% |
| Experimental Weight Set 3 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 43% |
Kelly Edge Plays: 1 flagged longshot(s) graded, 0 won, 0 finished in the money.
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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,500 | |
| Win: | 7 – Catch A Nite Train (5/2) |
| Place: | 1 – Rigoberto (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Spotonjustice (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Tay (8/1), 5 – Paynter's Canvas (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Zappinit (8/1), 4 – Secret's Image (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-5-6-3-1-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-7-2-4-5-6-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500 | |
| Win: | 3 – Little Jake (8/5) |
| Place: | 6 – Fervent Prayer (2/1) |
| Show: | 4 – Coach Knight (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Corona Grande (6/1), 1 – Mansfield Tiger (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Bella's Prayer (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-2-4-6-1-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-6-2-1-4-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $43,000 | |
| Win: | 3 – Lady Chaos (5/2) |
| Place: | 7 – Over And Above (9/2) |
| Show: | 1 – Charming Jazel (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Get Even Kid (7/2), 6 – Shesmyhuckleberry (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Dreaming Girl (5/1), 5 – Gonnagetchagetcha (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-1-4-2-7-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-7-4-1-2-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – Unresponsive (3/1) |
| Place: | 5 – Troubleonthegreen (3/2) |
| Show: | 3 – Red So O Lo (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Thiever (8/1), 8 – Pro Fever (10/1), 4 – Aumoe (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Love Potion (20/1), 1 – My Friend Wilson (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-2-3-8-7-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-7-8-3-6-4-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $38,080 | |
| Win: | 2 – Garryowen (5/2) |
| Place: | 6 – Gallic Charm (5/1) |
| Show: | 1 – Which Side R U On (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Bon Temps (9/2), 5 – This Beau Knows (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Moral Man (8/1), 7 – Jr Sweet Feet (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-3-4-1-2-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-1-3-4-7-6-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Easy Effort (3/1) |
| Place: | 5 – Whakaari (5/2) |
| Show: | 2 – This Little Light (12/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8 – Jogger (9/2), 7 – Lovers Carril (5/1), 3 – Color Palette (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Abra Abra (20/1), 6 – Moon Lite Girl (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-5-8-4-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-2-5-1-3-8-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $38,080 | |
| Win: | 6 – Union Rose (3/1) |
| Place: | 2 – Ability (4/1) |
| Show: | 4 – Let's Go Barbie (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 9 – Playful Quality (8/1), 8 – Diamond Rock Hill (5/1), 5 – Wangshu (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Juno Palace (15/1), 1 – Crown Of Violence (30/1), 3 – Foxy Mademoiselle (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-9-2-6-1-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-9-4-2-5-7-3-8-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #4, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – Chiringo (7/2) |
| Place: | 1 – Luckies Joy (2/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Gimmeethreesteps (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Optimal Courage (7/2), 6 – Rocket Hoss (12/1), 4 – Me And Chili (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9 – Spinning Pride (20/1), 5 – Cringe (20/1), 10 – Crab Crunch (15/1), 8 – Cheesesteak (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-2-8-1-6-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-6-4-10-2-3-7-8-9-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5, |
AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,500 | |
| Win: | 1 – Rigoberto (3/1) |
| Place: | 7 – Catch A Nite Train (5/2) |
| Show: | 3 – Spotonjustice (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Paynter's Canvas (9/2), 2 – Zappinit (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Tay (8/1), 4 – Secret's Image (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-5-4-3-6-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-7-2-4-5-6-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500 | |
| Win: | 3 – Little Jake (8/5) |
| Place: | 6 – Fervent Prayer (2/1) |
| Show: | 4 – Coach Knight (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Corona Grande (6/1), 1 – Mansfield Tiger (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Bella's Prayer (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-2-1-4-6-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-6-2-1-4-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $43,000 | |
| Win: | 3 – Lady Chaos (5/2) |
| Place: | 4 – Get Even Kid (7/2) |
| Show: | 1 – Charming Jazel (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Over And Above (9/2), 2 – Dreaming Girl (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Shesmyhuckleberry (6/1), 5 – Gonnagetchagetcha (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-1-4-2-7-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-7-4-1-2-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #1, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – Troubleonthegreen (3/2) |
| Place: | 3 – Red So O Lo (5/2) |
| Show: | 6 – Unresponsive (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Thiever (8/1), 8 – Pro Fever (10/1), 4 – Aumoe (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Love Potion (20/1), 1 – My Friend Wilson (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-3-8-7-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-7-8-3-6-4-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #6, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $38,080 | |
| Win: | 2 – Garryowen (5/2) |
| Place: | 3 – Bon Temps (9/2) |
| Show: | 1 – Which Side R U On (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Gallic Charm (5/1), 5 – This Beau Knows (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Moral Man (8/1), 7 – Jr Sweet Feet (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-3-4-1-7-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-1-3-4-7-6-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Easy Effort (3/1) |
| Place: | 5 – Whakaari (5/2) |
| Show: | 7 – Lovers Carril (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8 – Jogger (9/2), 3 – Color Palette (6/1), 2 – This Little Light (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Abra Abra (20/1), 6 – Moon Lite Girl (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-5-8-4-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-2-5-1-3-8-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #7, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $38,080 | |
| Win: | 4 – Let's Go Barbie (5/2) |
| Place: | 6 – Union Rose (3/1) |
| Show: | 2 – Ability (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8 – Diamond Rock Hill (5/1), 9 – Playful Quality (8/1), 5 – Wangshu (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Foxy Mademoiselle (10/1), 7 – Juno Palace (15/1), 1 – Crown Of Violence (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-9-2-1-6-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-9-4-2-5-7-3-8-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #2, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – Chiringo (7/2) |
| Place: | 1 – Luckies Joy (2/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Gimmeethreesteps (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Optimal Courage (7/2), 4 – Me And Chili (15/1), 6 – Rocket Hoss (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9 – Spinning Pride (20/1), 10 – Crab Crunch (15/1), 5 – Cringe (20/1), 8 – Cheesesteak (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-8-2-6-1-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-6-4-10-2-3-7-8-9-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,500 | |
| Win: | 7 – Catch A Nite Train (5/2) 26% · fair 3-1 |
| Place: | 1 – Rigoberto (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 |
| Show: | 3 – Spotonjustice (5/1) 17% · fair 5-1 |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Paynter's Canvas (9/2) 15% · fair 6-1, 6 – Tay (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -26% |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Zappinit (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -43%, 4 – Secret's Image (12/1) 6% · fair 29-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-5-4-6-3-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-7-2-4-5-6-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500 | |
| Win: | 3 – Little Jake (8/5) 28% · fair 5-2 underlay -39% |
| Place: | 6 – Fervent Prayer (2/1) 21% · fair 7-2 underlay -46% |
| Show: | 4 – Coach Knight (7/2) 21% · fair 7-2 |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Corona Grande (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 1 – Mansfield Tiger (8/1) 10% · fair 17-2 |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Bella's Prayer (10/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -31% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-2-1-4-6-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-6-2-1-4-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $43,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Charming Jazel (7/2) 23% · fair 7-2 |
| Place: | 7 – Over And Above (9/2) 18% · fair 9-2 |
| Show: | 3 – Lady Chaos (5/2) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -52% |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Get Even Kid (7/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -37%, 2 – Dreaming Girl (5/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -38% |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Shesmyhuckleberry (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -42%, 5 – Gonnagetchagetcha (12/1) 7% · fair 25-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-1-2-4-7-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-7-4-1-2-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000 | |
| Win: | 3 – Red So O Lo (5/2) 24% · fair 7-2 |
| Place: | 5 – Troubleonthegreen (3/2) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -65% |
| Show: | 6 – Unresponsive (3/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -36% |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Thiever (8/1) 14% · fair 6-1 overlay +34%, 8 – Pro Fever (10/1) 11% · fair 8-1 overlay +28%, 4 – Aumoe (12/1) 7% · fair 13-1 |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Love Potion (20/1) 4% · fair 49-2, 1 – My Friend Wilson (30/1) 3% · fair 31-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-8-3-7-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-7-8-3-6-4-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #6, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $38,080 | |
| Win: | 2 – Garryowen (5/2) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -28% |
| Place: | 3 – Bon Temps (9/2) 16% · fair 5-1 |
| Show: | 1 – Which Side R U On (2/1) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -61% |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Gallic Charm (5/1) 16% · fair 5-1, 5 – This Beau Knows (6/1) 15% · fair 11-2 |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Moral Man (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -33%, 7 – Jr Sweet Feet (15/1) 6% · fair 16-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-3-4-1-7-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-1-3-4-7-6-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Easy Effort (3/1) 23% · fair 7-2 |
| Place: | 5 – Whakaari (5/2) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -41% |
| Show: | 8 – Jogger (9/2) 16% · fair 11-2 |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Lovers Carril (5/1) 15% · fair 11-2, 3 – Color Palette (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -39%, 2 – This Little Light (12/1) 8% · fair 11-1 |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Abra Abra (20/1) 6% · fair 29-2 overlay +37%, 6 – Moon Lite Girl (20/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -38% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-8-5-4-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-2-5-1-3-8-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #8, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $38,080 | |
| Win: | 6 – Union Rose (3/1) 21% · fair 4-1 |
| Place: | 4 – Let's Go Barbie (5/2) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -45% |
| Show: | 8 – Diamond Rock Hill (5/1) 15% · fair 11-2 |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Ability (4/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -46%, 9 – Playful Quality (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 5 – Wangshu (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -29% |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Foxy Mademoiselle (10/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -33%, 7 – Juno Palace (15/1) 6% · fair 16-1, 1 – Crown Of Violence (30/1) 3% · fair 75-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-9-2-1-6-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-9-4-2-5-7-3-8-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #8, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – Chiringo (7/2) 22% · fair 7-2 |
| Place: | 3 – Gimmeethreesteps (9/2) 17% · fair 5-1 |
| Show: | 1 – Luckies Joy (2/1) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -69% |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Optimal Courage (7/2) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -60%, 4 – Me And Chili (15/1) 9% · fair 10-1 overlay +54%, 6 – Rocket Hoss (12/1) 8% · fair 23-2 |
| Rest of field: | 10 – Crab Crunch (15/1) 7% · fair 13-1, 9 – Spinning Pride (20/1) 5% · fair 18-1, 5 – Cringe (20/1) 4% · fair 47-2, 8 – Cheesesteak (30/1) 3% · fair 59-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-8-2-6-3-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-6-4-10-2-3-7-8-9-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #1, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ
Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.
| Race 1 | AI Exacta: #1 over #7 ($1 straight; box #1-#7 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #7, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 2 | AI Exacta: #3 over #6 ($1 straight; box #3-#6 for cover) Trifecta: #3 over #4, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 3 | AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover) Trifecta: #3 over #7, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 4 | AI Exacta: #5 over #3 ($1 straight; box #5-#3 for cover) Trifecta: #5 over #3, #6, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 5 | AI Exacta: #3 over #2 ($1 straight; box #3-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #3, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 6 | AI Exacta: #4 over #5 ($1 straight; box #4-#5 for cover) Trifecta: #5 over #4, #7, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 7 | AI Exacta: #4 over #6 ($1 straight; box #4-#6 for cover) Trifecta: #4 over #6, #2, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 8 | AI Exacta: #1 over #2 ($1 straight; box #1-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #1, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
| Kelly Edge Plays (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob isotonic) Morning-line reliability: +0.37 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it) | |||||||
| Race | Horse | ML | Live | P(win) | Edge | ¼ Kelly | Bet on $ bankroll |
| 8 | 9 – Spinning Pride | 20/1 | — | 6.2% | +30.9% | 0.39% | $0.39 |
| 8 | 4 – Me And Chili | 15/1 | — | 7.2% | +15.2% | 0.25% | $0.25 |
| TOTAL across 2 plays: | 0.6% | $0.64 | |||||
| Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly. | |||||||
| 💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line. | |||||||
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,500 | |
| Win: | 1 - Rigoberto (3/1) |
| Place: | 7 - Catch A Nite Train (5/2) |
| Show: | 5 - Paynter's Canvas (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2 - Zappinit (8/1), 3 - Spotonjustice (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Tay (8/1), 4 - Secret's Image (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-5-1-3-6-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-7-2-4-5-6-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500 | |
| Win: | 3 - Little Jake (8/5) |
| Place: | 6 - Fervent Prayer (2/1) |
| Show: | 5 - Corona Grande (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Coach Knight (7/2), 1 - Mansfield Tiger (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Bella's Prayer (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-6-4-5-1-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-6-2-1-4-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $43,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Charming Jazel (7/2) |
| Place: | 3 - Lady Chaos (5/2) |
| Show: | 4 - Get Even Kid (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Over And Above (9/2), 2 - Dreaming Girl (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Shesmyhuckleberry (6/1), 5 - Gonnagetchagetcha (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-5-4-2-7-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-7-4-1-2-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000 | |
| Win: | 6 - Unresponsive (3/1) |
| Place: | 3 - Red So O Lo (5/2) |
| Show: | 5 - Troubleonthegreen (3/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Thiever (8/1), 8 - Pro Fever (10/1), 4 - Aumoe (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Love Potion (20/1), 1 - My Friend Wilson (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-3-7-8-2-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-7-8-3-6-4-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #5, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $38,080 | |
| Win: | 3 - Bon Temps (9/2) |
| Place: | 2 - Garryowen (5/2) |
| Show: | 1 - Which Side R U On (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Gallic Charm (5/1), 5 - This Beau Knows (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 - Jr Sweet Feet (15/1), 4 - Moral Man (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-3-1-2-4-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-1-3-4-7-6-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000 | |
| Win: | 4 - Easy Effort (3/1) |
| Place: | 5 - Whakaari (5/2) |
| Show: | 2 - This Little Light (12/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8 - Jogger (9/2), 7 - Lovers Carril (5/1), 3 - Color Palette (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 - Abra Abra (20/1), 6 - Moon Lite Girl (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-8-4-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-2-5-1-3-8-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $38,080 | |
| Win: | 6 - Union Rose (3/1) |
| Place: | 4 - Let's Go Barbie (5/2) |
| Show: | 2 - Ability (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8 - Diamond Rock Hill (5/1), 9 - Playful Quality (8/1), 5 - Wangshu (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 - Juno Palace (15/1), 3 - Foxy Mademoiselle (10/1), 1 - Crown Of Violence (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-9-2-6-8-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-9-4-2-5-7-3-8-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #2, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Luckies Joy (2/1) |
| Place: | 2 - Chiringo (7/2) |
| Show: | 3 - Gimmeethreesteps (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Optimal Courage (7/2), 6 - Rocket Hoss (12/1), 4 - Me And Chili (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9 - Spinning Pride (20/1), 5 - Cringe (20/1), 10 - Crab Crunch (15/1), 8 - Cheesesteak (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-7-2-3-6-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-6-4-10-2-3-7-8-9-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
| Race 1 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,500 | |
| Win: | 1 - Rigoberto (3/1) |
| Place: | 7 - Catch A Nite Train (5/2) |
| Show: | 3 - Spotonjustice (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 - Paynter's Canvas (9/2), 2 - Zappinit (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Tay (8/1), 4 - Secret's Image (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-5-1-3-6-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-7-2-4-5-6-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500 | |
| Win: | 3 - Little Jake (8/5) |
| Place: | 4 - Coach Knight (7/2) |
| Show: | 6 - Fervent Prayer (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 - Corona Grande (6/1), 1 - Mansfield Tiger (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Bella's Prayer (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-6-2-1-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-6-2-1-4-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $43,000 | |
| Win: | 3 - Lady Chaos (5/2) |
| Place: | 7 - Over And Above (9/2) |
| Show: | 4 - Get Even Kid (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - Charming Jazel (7/2), 6 - Shesmyhuckleberry (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Dreaming Girl (5/1), 5 - Gonnagetchagetcha (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-5-4-7-2-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-7-4-1-2-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000 | |
| Win: | 5 - Troubleonthegreen (3/2) |
| Place: | 3 - Red So O Lo (5/2) |
| Show: | 6 - Unresponsive (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Thiever (8/1), 8 - Pro Fever (10/1), 4 - Aumoe (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 - My Friend Wilson (30/1), 2 - Love Potion (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-3-7-8-5-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-7-8-3-6-4-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #6, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $38,080 | |
| Win: | 2 - Garryowen (5/2) |
| Place: | 3 - Bon Temps (9/2) |
| Show: | 6 - Gallic Charm (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - Which Side R U On (2/1), 5 - This Beau Knows (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Moral Man (8/1), 7 - Jr Sweet Feet (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-3-1-4-2-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-1-3-4-7-6-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1-70 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000 | |
| Win: | 5 - Whakaari (5/2) |
| Place: | 4 - Easy Effort (3/1) |
| Show: | 7 - Lovers Carril (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 - Color Palette (6/1), 8 - Jogger (9/2), 2 - This Little Light (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 - Abra Abra (20/1), 6 - Moon Lite Girl (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-8-4-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-2-5-1-3-8-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #7, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $38,080 | |
| Win: | 4 - Let's Go Barbie (5/2) |
| Place: | 6 - Union Rose (3/1) |
| Show: | 2 - Ability (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 9 - Playful Quality (8/1), 8 - Diamond Rock Hill (5/1), 5 - Wangshu (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 - Juno Palace (15/1), 1 - Crown Of Violence (30/1), 3 - Foxy Mademoiselle (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-9-2-6-4-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-9-4-2-5-7-3-8-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #2, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000 | |
| Win: | 2 - Chiringo (7/2) |
| Place: | 1 - Luckies Joy (2/1) |
| Show: | 3 - Gimmeethreesteps (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Optimal Courage (7/2), 6 - Rocket Hoss (12/1), 4 - Me And Chili (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 10 - Crab Crunch (15/1), 5 - Cringe (20/1), 8 - Cheesesteak (30/1), 9 - Spinning Pride (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-2-1-3-8-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-6-4-10-2-3-7-8-9-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1, |
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ
Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.
| Pick 3 R1-3 | R1: #7,#1,#3 (64%) / R2: #3,#6,#4 (70%) / R3: #1,#7,#3 (58%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26% |
| Pick 3 R2-4 | R2: #3,#6,#4 (70%) / R3: #1,#7,#3 (58%) / R4: #3,#5,#6 (60%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 24% |
| Pick 3 R3-5 | R3: #1,#7,#3 (58%) / R4: #3,#5,#6 (60%) / R5: #2,#3,#1 (55%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19% |
| Pick 3 R4-6 | R4: #3,#5,#6 (60%) / R5: #2,#3,#1 (55%) / R6: #4,#5,#8 (58%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19% |
| Pick 4 R1-4 | R1: #7,#1,#3 (64%) / R2: #3,#6,#4 (70%) / R3: #1,#7,#3 (58%) / R4: #3,#5,#6 (60%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 15% |
| Pick 4 R2-5 | R2: #3,#6,#4 (70%) / R3: #1,#7,#3 (58%) / R4: #3,#5,#6 (60%) / R5: #2,#3,#1 (55%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 13% |
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
| ABILITY | ABRA ABRA | APOLLITICAL FAST | AUMOE | BELLA'S PRAYER |
| BP JET LINER | CATCH A NITE TRAIN | CHARMING JAZEL | CHEESESTEAK | CHIRINGO |
| COLOR PALETTE | CORONA GRANDE | CRAB CRUNCH | CRINGE | CROWN OF VIOLENCE |
| CYNTER OF ATTENTION | DIAMOND ROCK HILL | DREAMING GIRL | EASY EFFORT | ELIZABETH ALEXANDRIA |
| FERVENT PRAYER | FOXY MADEMOISELLE | GALLIC CHARM | GARRYOWEN | GET EVEN KID |
| GONNAGETCHAGETCHA | IRISS ROSE | JOGGER | JR SWEET FEET | JUNO PALACE |
| KELLI GIRL | KISSMEOVERPOLITICS | LADY CHAOS | LET'S GO BARBIE | LITTLE JAKE |
| LOVERS CARRIL | LUCKIES JOY | MANSFIELD TIGER | ME AND CHILI | MI BLOOD TOKEN |
| MORAL MAN | MY FRIEND WILSON | OPTIMAL COURAGE | OVER AND ABOVE | PAYNTER'S CANVAS |
| PRO FEVER | RED SO O LO | RIGOBERTO | ROCKET HOSS | SECRET'S IMAGE |
| SPINNING PRIDE | SPOTONJUSTICE | TAY | TEMPTSTEPPER Z | TEXAS SWAGGER 123 |
| THIS BEAU KNOWS | THIS LITTLE LIGHT | THUNDER BAY | TROUBLEONTHEGREEN | UNION ROSE |
| WANGSHU | WHAKAARI | WHEELZ UP SM | WHICH SIDE R U ON | ZAPPINIT |
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