How did these picks do?
Results for this card as of 8:14 AM, graded from the official charts. Each row is that section's top pick in every race with a result; races still pending are not counted. The full week is in the weekly recap.
| Section | Races graded | Won | 2nd | 3rd | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algo 1 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 29% |
| Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 38% |
| Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) | 7 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 29% |
| Experimental Weight Set 2 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 38% |
| Experimental Weight Set 3 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 50% |
Kelly Edge Plays: 2 flagged longshot(s) graded, 0 won, 1 finished in the money.
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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Rosso Fuoco (8/5) |
| Place: | 6 – Concho's Prayer (2/1) |
| Show: | 5 – Dream Fast (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Hunted Prayer (20/1), 2 – Indy Kid (8/1), 7 – Air Charger (20/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8 – Mi Sargento (12/1), 3 – Instinctually (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-6-3-4-7-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-5-6-4-2-8-7-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $38,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – Wosie's Promise (5/2) |
| Place: | 4 – Instilled Zip (3/1) |
| Show: | 2 – Troglodyte (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Lexie's Lunar Rock (2/1), 6 – Crumbl (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Justiceontherail (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-1-3-4-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-1-4-2-3-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $46,240 | |
| Win: | 5 – Blazing Freedom (5/2) |
| Place: | 3 – I'm Game (9/5) |
| Show: | 7 – Sisters In Town (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Tearin'up My Heart (10/1), 6 – Small Hollow (3/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Stephens Dream (12/1), 1 – Acostambo (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-3-7-4-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-2-5-6-4-7-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Sombeyay King (7/2) |
| Place: | 1 – Gray V. (6/1) |
| Show: | 8 – Angel's Legacy (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Practical Justice (5/1), 3 – Pray For Victory (9/2), 2 – Unbridled Valor (4/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Mega Wich (8/1), 6 – Boss Justice (12/1), 9 – Goingscents (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-1-5-3-8-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-2-3-7-8-5-9-1-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #8, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $32,640 | |
| Win: | 5 – Polka Polenta (3/1) |
| Place: | 3 – Couldyoubeloved (5/2) |
| Show: | 10 – Annie Express (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 9 – Hidden Recipe (7/2), 6 – Ziggzappa (10/1), 2 – Lady Blake (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8 – Don't Look Back (25/1), 4 – Reimagine (20/1), 1 – Egyptian Candy (20/1), 7 – Ranch Life (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-10-6-2-3-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-4-6-2-9-10-1-7-8 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #10, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · playable | |
| Race 6 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,500 | |
| Win: | 4 – Crazy Legs Mike (3/1) |
| Place: | 7 – Up N Up (2/1) |
| Show: | 1 – Favorite Star (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Mikestrumpcard (6/1), 3 – Arboretum (8/1), 2 – Life Is Brown (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8 – Quality Notion (20/1), 6 – Tapitoutonsunday (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-7-1-5-3-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-7-2-3-8-6-1-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – Jailhouse Justice (9/5) |
| Place: | 7 – Shiesty To Chase (3/1) |
| Show: | 4 – Tail Gunner (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8 – Stranger's Church (6/1), 9 – El Michoacano (5/2), 1 – He B Ready (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Henry The Hank (10/1), 3 – Adios Ashwood (15/1), 5 – Barca Billy (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-7-8-9-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-2-7-9-1-8-3-4-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #4, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520 | |
| Win: | 1 – Kotetsu (8/1) |
| Place: | 2 – My Awesome Gold (12/1) |
| Show: | 3 – Conifer (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Modern Legacy (7/2), 5 – Thousand Byus (20/1), 6 – Fonzarelli (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Noe Standard Risk (15/1), 8 – Let It Fly (4/1), 9 – Silver Star (9/2), 10 – Start The Disco (9/5) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-4-5-6-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 10-7-3-5-6-4-1-2-8-9 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5, |
AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Rosso Fuoco (8/5) |
| Place: | 6 – Concho's Prayer (2/1) |
| Show: | 5 – Dream Fast (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Indy Kid (8/1), 7 – Air Charger (20/1), 8 – Mi Sargento (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Hunted Prayer (20/1), 3 – Instinctually (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-1-7-2-4-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-5-6-4-2-8-7-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $38,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Lexie's Lunar Rock (2/1) |
| Place: | 4 – Instilled Zip (3/1) |
| Show: | 5 – Wosie's Promise (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Troglodyte (9/2), 6 – Crumbl (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Justiceontherail (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-3-1-4-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-1-4-2-3-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $46,240 | |
| Win: | 3 – I'm Game (9/5) |
| Place: | 5 – Blazing Freedom (5/2) |
| Show: | 6 – Small Hollow (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Sisters In Town (5/1), 2 – Tearin'up My Heart (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Stephens Dream (12/1), 1 – Acostambo (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-4-3-6-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-2-5-6-4-7-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #6, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Sombeyay King (7/2) |
| Place: | 2 – Unbridled Valor (4/1) |
| Show: | 8 – Angel's Legacy (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Practical Justice (5/1), 1 – Gray V. (6/1), 3 – Pray For Victory (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Mega Wich (8/1), 9 – Goingscents (15/1), 6 – Boss Justice (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-5-1-3-9-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-2-3-7-8-5-9-1-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #8, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $32,640 | |
| Win: | 3 – Couldyoubeloved (5/2) |
| Place: | 9 – Hidden Recipe (7/2) |
| Show: | 5 – Polka Polenta (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 10 – Annie Express (4/1), 6 – Ziggzappa (10/1), 1 – Egyptian Candy (20/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Lady Blake (12/1), 4 – Reimagine (20/1), 7 – Ranch Life (20/1), 8 – Don't Look Back (25/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-10-6-2-1-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-4-6-2-9-10-1-7-8 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #5, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · playable | |
| Race 6 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,500 | |
| Win: | 7 – Up N Up (2/1) |
| Place: | 4 – Crazy Legs Mike (3/1) |
| Show: | 1 – Favorite Star (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Mikestrumpcard (6/1), 3 – Arboretum (8/1), 2 – Life Is Brown (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8 – Quality Notion (20/1), 6 – Tapitoutonsunday (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-4-1-5-3-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-7-2-3-8-6-1-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – Jailhouse Justice (9/5) |
| Place: | 7 – Shiesty To Chase (3/1) |
| Show: | 4 – Tail Gunner (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 9 – El Michoacano (5/2), 8 – Stranger's Church (6/1), 2 – Henry The Hank (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – He B Ready (12/1), 3 – Adios Ashwood (15/1), 5 – Barca Billy (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-7-2-9-8-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-2-7-9-1-8-3-4-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #4, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520 | |
| Win: | 3 – Conifer (3/1) |
| Place: | 10 – Start The Disco (9/5) |
| Show: | 4 – Modern Legacy (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 8 – Let It Fly (4/1), 6 – Fonzarelli (5/1), 9 – Silver Star (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Kotetsu (8/1), 7 – Noe Standard Risk (15/1), 2 – My Awesome Gold (12/1), 5 – Thousand Byus (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-10-4-8-6-9 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 10-7-3-5-6-4-1-2-8-9 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #10, #4, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Rosso Fuoco (8/5) 28% · fair 5-2 underlay -38% |
| Place: | 6 – Concho's Prayer (2/1) 27% · fair 3-1 underlay -28% |
| Show: | 5 – Dream Fast (8/1) 13% · fair 7-1 |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Indy Kid (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 7 – Air Charger (20/1) 7% · fair 27-2 overlay +49%, 4 – Hunted Prayer (20/1) 5% · fair 35-2 |
| Rest of field: | 8 – Mi Sargento (12/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -41%, 3 – Instinctually (20/1) 4% · fair 49-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-7-2-4-1-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-5-6-4-2-8-7-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $38,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Lexie's Lunar Rock (2/1) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -45% |
| Place: | 4 – Instilled Zip (3/1) 21% · fair 7-2 |
| Show: | 6 – Crumbl (5/1) 19% · fair 9-2 |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Troglodyte (9/2) 18% · fair 9-2, 5 – Wosie's Promise (5/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -62% |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Justiceontherail (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-2-5-1-4-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-1-4-2-3-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #6, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $46,240 | |
| Win: | 5 – Blazing Freedom (5/2) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -28% |
| Place: | 3 – I'm Game (9/5) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -50% |
| Show: | 7 – Sisters In Town (5/1) 17% · fair 5-1 |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Small Hollow (3/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -44%, 2 – Tearin'up My Heart (10/1) 12% · fair 7-1 overlay +42% |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Stephens Dream (12/1) 6% · fair 16-1, 1 – Acostambo (15/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -30% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-4-3-7-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-2-5-6-4-7-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #7, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Sombeyay King (7/2) 20% · fair 4-1 |
| Place: | 5 – Practical Justice (5/1) 16% · fair 11-2 |
| Show: | 2 – Unbridled Valor (4/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -36% |
| Other contenders: | 8 – Angel's Legacy (6/1) 12% · fair 7-1, 1 – Gray V. (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -35%, 4 – Mega Wich (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1 |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Pray For Victory (9/2) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -57%, 9 – Goingscents (15/1) 6% · fair 33-2, 6 – Boss Justice (12/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -37% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-5-1-3-9-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-2-3-7-8-5-9-1-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #2, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $32,640 | |
| Win: | 10 – Annie Express (4/1) 20% · fair 4-1 |
| Place: | 9 – Hidden Recipe (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -29% |
| Show: | 3 – Couldyoubeloved (5/2) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -52% |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Polka Polenta (3/1) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -43%, 6 – Ziggzappa (10/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 1 – Egyptian Candy (20/1) 5% · fair 19-1 |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Lady Blake (12/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -42%, 4 – Reimagine (20/1) 4% · fair 49-2, 7 – Ranch Life (20/1) 4% · fair 53-2, 8 – Don't Look Back (25/1) 3% · fair 67-2 underlay -26% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-10-6-2-1-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-4-6-2-9-10-1-7-8 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #9, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · playable | |
| Race 6 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,500 | |
| Win: | 4 – Crazy Legs Mike (3/1) 27% · fair 5-2 |
| Place: | 7 – Up N Up (2/1) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -40% |
| Show: | 5 – Mikestrumpcard (6/1) 16% · fair 11-2 |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Favorite Star (5/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -40%, 2 – Life Is Brown (10/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 3 – Arboretum (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -30% |
| Rest of field: | 8 – Quality Notion (20/1) 5% · fair 41-2, 6 – Tapitoutonsunday (20/1) 2% · fair 83-2 underlay -52% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-7-5-1-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-7-2-3-8-6-1-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – Jailhouse Justice (9/5) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -58% |
| Place: | 7 – Shiesty To Chase (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -39% |
| Show: | 4 – Tail Gunner (4/1) 16% · fair 5-1 |
| Other contenders: | 9 – El Michoacano (5/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -61%, 8 – Stranger's Church (6/1) 13% · fair 7-1, 2 – Henry The Hank (10/1) 8% · fair 12-1 |
| Rest of field: | 1 – He B Ready (12/1) 6% · fair 29-2, 3 – Adios Ashwood (15/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -26%, 5 – Barca Billy (20/1) 3% · fair 67-2 underlay -40% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-7-2-9-8-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-2-7-9-1-8-3-4-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #4, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520 | |
| Win: | 10 – Start The Disco (9/5) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -61% |
| Place: | 6 – Fonzarelli (5/1) 16% · fair 5-1 |
| Show: | 3 – Conifer (3/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -50% |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Modern Legacy (7/2) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -45%, 8 – Let It Fly (4/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -57%, 9 – Silver Star (9/2) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -62% |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Noe Standard Risk (15/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 1 – Kotetsu (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -40%, 2 – My Awesome Gold (12/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -41%, 5 – Thousand Byus (20/1) 2% · fair 49-1 underlay -59% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 10-6-3-4-8-9 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 10-7-3-5-6-4-1-2-8-9 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #6, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ
Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.
| Race 1 | AI Exacta: #1 over #6 ($1 straight; box #1-#6 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #6, #2, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 2 | AI Exacta: #1 over #5 ($1 straight; box #1-#5 for cover) Trifecta: #4 over #5, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 3 | AI Exacta: #3 over #5 ($1 straight; box #3-#5 for cover) Trifecta: #3 over #5, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 4 | AI Exacta: #8 over #3 ($1 straight; box #8-#3 for cover) Trifecta: #3 over #5, #8, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 5 | AI Exacta: #9 over #3 ($1 straight; box #9-#3 for cover) Trifecta: #3 over #5, #9, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · playable |
| Race 6 | AI Exacta: #7 over #4 ($1 straight; box #7-#4 for cover) Trifecta: #4 over #7, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 7 | AI Exacta: #6 over #7 ($1 straight; box #6-#7 for cover) Trifecta: #6 over #4, #8, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 8 | AI Exacta: #10 over #3 ($1 straight; box #10-#3 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
| Kelly Edge Plays (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob isotonic) Morning-line reliability: +0.37 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it) Weekend sizing: ×0.95 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged) | |||||||
| Race | Horse | ML | Live | P(win) | Edge | ¼ Kelly | Bet on $ bankroll |
| 1 | 7 – Air Charger | 20/1 | — | 6.1% | +26.6% | 0.33% | $0.33 |
| 5 | 8 – Don'T Look Back | 25/1 | — | 4.9% | +25.8% | 0.26% | $0.26 |
| 5 | 1 – Egyptian Candy | 20/1 | — | 6.0% | +24.4% | 0.31% | $0.31 |
| TOTAL across 3 plays: | 0.9% | $0.90 | |||||
| Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly. | |||||||
| 💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line. | |||||||
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Rosso Fuoco (8/5) |
| Place: | 5 - Dream Fast (8/1) |
| Show: | 6 - Concho's Prayer (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 - Indy Kid (8/1), 4 - Hunted Prayer (20/1), 3 - Instinctually (20/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8 - Mi Sargento (12/1), 7 - Air Charger (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-6-3-4-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-5-6-4-2-8-7-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #6, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $38,000 | |
| Win: | 5 - Wosie's Promise (5/2) |
| Place: | 1 - Lexie's Lunar Rock (2/1) |
| Show: | 4 - Instilled Zip (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 - Troglodyte (9/2), 6 - Crumbl (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Justiceontherail (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-1-2-3-4-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-1-4-2-3-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $46,240 | |
| Win: | 5 - Blazing Freedom (5/2) |
| Place: | 3 - I'm Game (9/5) |
| Show: | 7 - Sisters In Town (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Small Hollow (3/1), 2 - Tearin'up My Heart (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 - Acostambo (15/1), 4 - Stephens Dream (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-2-7-6-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-2-5-6-4-7-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #7, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 7 - Sombeyay King (7/2) |
| Place: | 5 - Practical Justice (5/1) |
| Show: | 3 - Pray For Victory (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Mega Wich (8/1), 8 - Angel's Legacy (6/1), 1 - Gray V. (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Unbridled Valor (4/1), 9 - Goingscents (15/1), 6 - Boss Justice (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-5-3-4-1-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-2-3-7-8-5-9-1-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $32,640 | |
| Win: | 3 - Couldyoubeloved (5/2) |
| Place: | 9 - Hidden Recipe (7/2) |
| Show: | 5 - Polka Polenta (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 10 - Annie Express (4/1), 6 - Ziggzappa (10/1), 8 - Don't Look Back (25/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Reimagine (20/1), 1 - Egyptian Candy (20/1), 7 - Ranch Life (20/1), 2 - Lady Blake (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-10-6-3-9-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-4-6-2-9-10-1-7-8 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #5, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · playable | |
| Race 6 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,500 | |
| Win: | 4 - Crazy Legs Mike (3/1) |
| Place: | 7 - Up N Up (2/1) |
| Show: | 1 - Favorite Star (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 - Mikestrumpcard (6/1), 2 - Life Is Brown (10/1), 3 - Arboretum (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8 - Quality Notion (20/1), 6 - Tapitoutonsunday (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-7-1-5-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-7-2-3-8-6-1-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000 | |
| Win: | 6 - Jailhouse Justice (9/5) |
| Place: | 9 - El Michoacano (5/2) |
| Show: | 8 - Stranger's Church (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Tail Gunner (4/1), 1 - He B Ready (12/1), 2 - Henry The Hank (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 - Shiesty To Chase (3/1), 3 - Adios Ashwood (15/1), 5 - Barca Billy (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-7-9-8-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-2-7-9-1-8-3-4-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #9, #8, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520 | |
| Win: | 1 - Kotetsu (8/1) |
| Place: | 2 - My Awesome Gold (12/1) |
| Show: | 3 - Conifer (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Modern Legacy (7/2), 5 - Thousand Byus (20/1), 6 - Fonzarelli (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 - Noe Standard Risk (15/1), 8 - Let It Fly (4/1), 9 - Silver Star (9/2), 10 - Start The Disco (9/5) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-4-5-6-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 10-7-3-5-6-4-1-2-8-9 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Rosso Fuoco (8/5) |
| Place: | 6 - Concho's Prayer (2/1) |
| Show: | 2 - Indy Kid (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 - Dream Fast (8/1), 8 - Mi Sargento (12/1), 4 - Hunted Prayer (20/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Instinctually (20/1), 7 - Air Charger (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-6-2-3-4-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-5-6-4-2-8-7-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #2, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $38,000 | |
| Win: | 4 - Instilled Zip (3/1) |
| Place: | 5 - Wosie's Promise (5/2) |
| Show: | 1 - Lexie's Lunar Rock (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 - Troglodyte (9/2), 6 - Crumbl (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Justiceontherail (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-1-3-4-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-1-4-2-3-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $46,240 | |
| Win: | 3 - I'm Game (9/5) |
| Place: | 5 - Blazing Freedom (5/2) |
| Show: | 7 - Sisters In Town (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 - Tearin'up My Heart (10/1), 6 - Small Hollow (3/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Stephens Dream (12/1), 1 - Acostambo (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-2-7-4-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-2-5-6-4-7-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 3 - Pray For Victory (9/2) |
| Place: | 5 - Practical Justice (5/1) |
| Show: | 8 - Angel's Legacy (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Sombeyay King (7/2), 1 - Gray V. (6/1), 2 - Unbridled Valor (4/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Mega Wich (8/1), 9 - Goingscents (15/1), 6 - Boss Justice (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-5-7-1-8-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-2-3-7-8-5-9-1-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #8, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $32,640 | |
| Win: | 3 - Couldyoubeloved (5/2) |
| Place: | 5 - Polka Polenta (3/1) |
| Show: | 9 - Hidden Recipe (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 10 - Annie Express (4/1), 1 - Egyptian Candy (20/1), 2 - Lady Blake (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Ziggzappa (10/1), 4 - Reimagine (20/1), 8 - Don't Look Back (25/1), 7 - Ranch Life (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-10-6-3-2-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-4-6-2-9-10-1-7-8 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #9, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · playable | |
| Race 6 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,500 | |
| Win: | 4 - Crazy Legs Mike (3/1) |
| Place: | 7 - Up N Up (2/1) |
| Show: | 1 - Favorite Star (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 - Mikestrumpcard (6/1), 2 - Life Is Brown (10/1), 3 - Arboretum (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8 - Quality Notion (20/1), 6 - Tapitoutonsunday (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-7-1-5-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-7-2-3-8-6-1-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000 | |
| Win: | 6 - Jailhouse Justice (9/5) |
| Place: | 4 - Tail Gunner (4/1) |
| Show: | 8 - Stranger's Church (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Shiesty To Chase (3/1), 1 - He B Ready (12/1), 2 - Henry The Hank (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9 - El Michoacano (5/2), 5 - Barca Billy (20/1), 3 - Adios Ashwood (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-7-8-2-9-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-2-7-9-1-8-3-4-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #8, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520 | |
| Win: | 1 - Kotetsu (8/1) |
| Place: | 2 - My Awesome Gold (12/1) |
| Show: | 3 - Conifer (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Modern Legacy (7/2), 5 - Thousand Byus (20/1), 6 - Fonzarelli (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 - Noe Standard Risk (15/1), 8 - Let It Fly (4/1), 9 - Silver Star (9/2), 10 - Start The Disco (9/5) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-4-5-6-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 10-7-3-5-6-4-1-2-8-9 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1, |
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ
Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.
| Pick 3 R1-3 | R1: #1,#6,#5 (67%) / R2: #1,#4,#6 (62%) / R3: #5,#3,#7 (61%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26% |
| Pick 3 R2-4 | R2: #1,#4,#6 (62%) / R3: #5,#3,#7 (61%) / R4: #7,#5,#2 (49%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19% |
| Pick 3 R4-6 | R4: #7,#5,#2 (49%) / R5: #10,#9,#3 (53%) / R6: #4,#7,#5 (66%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17% |
| Pick 3 R5-7 | R5: #10,#9,#3 (53%) / R6: #4,#7,#5 (66%) / R7: #6,#7,#4 (52%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 18% |
| Pick 4 R1-4 | R1: #1,#6,#5 (67%) / R2: #1,#4,#6 (62%) / R3: #5,#3,#7 (61%) / R4: #7,#5,#2 (49%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 13% |
| Pick 4 R3-6 | R3: #5,#3,#7 (61%) / R4: #7,#5,#2 (49%) / R5: #10,#9,#3 (53%) / R6: #4,#7,#5 (66%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 11% |
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
| ACOSTAMBO | ADIOS ASHWOOD | AIR CHARGER | ALCALA POLITICA | ANGEL'S LEGACY |
| ARBORETUM | BARCA BILLY | BLAZING FREEDOM | BLUE COLLAR COWBOY | BOSS JUSTICE |
| CONIFER | COULDYOUBELOVED | CRAZY LEGS MIKE | CRUMBL | DON'T LOOK BACK |
| EGYPTIAN CANDY | EL MICHOACANO | FAVORITE STAR | FONZARELLI | GO LITTLE JESS |
| GRAY V. | GV WINNERS BLOOD | HE B READY | HENRY THE HANK | HEZA CLOWN |
| HUNTED PRAYER | I'M GAME | INDY KID | INSTILLED ZIP | INSTINCTUALLY |
| JUSTICEONTHERAIL | KATS BAD HABIT | KOTETSU | LADY BLAKE | LAST SWEET JESS |
| LEXIE'S LUNAR ROCK | LIFE IS BROWN | LONE STAR KISSER | MEGA WICH | MI SARGENTO |
| MODERN LEGACY | MONDAY TEMPTATIONS | MY AWESOME GOLD | NOE STANDARD RISK | PAPPASITOG |
| PRACTICAL JUSTICE | PRAY FOR VICTORY | PROPER RETURN | QUALITY NOTION | RANCH LIFE |
| ROSSO FUOCO | SENORITA TEPA | SHIESTY TO CHASE | SILVER STAR | SISTERS IN TOWN |
| SOMBEYAY KING | START THE DISCO | STEPHENS DREAM | STRANGER'S CHURCH | TAIL GUNNER |
| TEARIN'UP MY HEART | THOUSAND BYUS | TROGLODYTE | UNBRIDLED VALOR | UP N UP |
| ZIGGZAPPA |
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