How did these picks do?
Results for this card as of 7:51 AM, graded from the official charts. Each row is that section's top pick in every race with a result; races still pending are not counted. The full week is in the weekly recap.
| Section | Races graded | Won | 2nd | 3rd | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algo 1 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 50% |
| Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) | 8 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 38% |
| Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 14% |
| Experimental Weight Set 2 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 25% |
| Experimental Weight Set 3 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 25% |
Kelly Edge Plays: 2 flagged longshot(s) graded, 0 won, 0 finished in the money.
AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied
Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.
| Track | Race | Model | New Top Pick | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 8 | Model Algo 3 (Win Prob) | #1 – Boitano | 3 scratch(es) |
Where the experts back our strongest pick today
In 7 of today's 8 races, the published handicappers landed on the same horse as Algo 2, our best-performing model. That agreement is the strongest single signal we have measured: across 1,389 graded races, the races where they agreed won 39.8% of the time against 28.6% where they did not — a wider gap than between any two of our own algorithms.
Today's agreement races — IND 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8.
Which horse the two agree on is part of Algo 2, included with Insider and above. The race numbers above are free to everyone: if you are playing these races, you now know the experts and our strongest model are pointing the same way.
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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
| Race 1 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000 | |
| Win: | 2Mitch (7/5) |
| Place: | 1Rapid Justice (3/1) |
| Show: | 7Benny's Day (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3Toy'stroubledhero (8/1), 4House Of Gold (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6Mystery Impact (25/1), 5Gimmel (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-7-1-5-4-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-3-1-4-7-6-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #7, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440 | |
| Win: | 6Aizhurek (9/5) |
| Place: | 2Blessed Azteca (2/1) |
| Show: | 4Cajun King (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5Gold Pan Sam (6/1), 3Magnus Crown (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Tacamo (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-2-4-5-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-2-4-3-5-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 1Delcap Alice (2/1) |
| Place: | 4Miss Candy Pop (5/2) |
| Show: | 3Loveitorleaveit (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 5Staymistyforme (6/1), 2Lotta Latte (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6That'smydaughter (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-4-3-2-5-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-5-2-6-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $24,480 | |
| Win: | 6Boonesboro (5/2) |
| Place: | 1Altimeter (2/1) |
| Show: | 7Cause Ima Boss (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4Lunaticus (8/1), 2Chargeaholic (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Run David Run (15/1), 3Chondrite (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-4-3-1-7-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-1-2-6-5-7-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520 | |
| Win: | 6Amani's Music (2/1) |
| Place: | 1Sugar Doll (3/1) |
| Show: | 4Ginger Ale (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3Diamondintherough (8/1), 7Heitzgirl (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5No Self Control (8/1), 2Poverty With Aview (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-1-2-5-3-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-3-1-5-2-4-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,500 | |
| Win: | 1Five Star (5/2) |
| Place: | 2I. C. U. Aggie (4/1) |
| Show: | 5Lil Gitana (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7Brickhousejustice (8/1), 4Prayer For Music (9/2), 3La Peruana (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8Exquisite Justice (15/1), 6Soxit Toem (25/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-1-2-7-4-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-8-5-2-7-3-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520 | |
| Win: | 1Sharply (7/2) |
| Place: | 7Lady Wren (4/1) |
| Show: | 2Newport Lady (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3Polka Dot Jersey (6/1), 6Three Branches (6/1), 8Zarzuela (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Angels Sing (12/1), 4Turbo Kitty (15/1), 9First Ladybug (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-7-2-3-6-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-4-7-1-9-8-3-5-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $23,120 | |
| ★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best. | |
| Win: | 1Boitano (3/1) |
| Place: | 11Purdy Darn Good (2/1) |
| Show: | 5Zach (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6Nine Questions (6/1), 3Wicked Suprise (5/1), 8Memphis Pharoah (8/1), 4Go Bali Go (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 10On Palm Sunday (10/1), 9Leave It To Kitten (20/1), 7El Michoacano (15/1), 2Revs Medal (20/1), 12Scoville (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-5-8-10-2-9 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 9-11-5-4-8-1-10-7-6-3-2-12 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #11, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
| Race 1 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 2Mitch (7/5) 30% · fair 5-2 underlay -41% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 1Rapid Justice (3/1) 22% · fair 7-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 7Benny's Day (7/2) 20% · fair 4-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 3Toy'stroubledhero (8/1) 14% · fair 13-2 overlay +27%, 4House Of Gold (12/1) 9% · fair 10-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 6Mystery Impact (25/1) 3% · fair 61-2, 5Gimmel (30/1) 3% · fair 36-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 1 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
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Race 1 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-7-5-1-4-3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-3-1-4-7-6-5 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #7, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 2 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 6Aizhurek (9/5) 46% · fair 1-1 overlay +56% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 2Blessed Azteca (2/1) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -44% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 4Cajun King (4/1) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -37% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 5Gold Pan Sam (6/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -31%, 3Magnus Crown (12/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -42% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 1Tacamo (15/1) 3% · fair 63-2 underlay -52% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 2 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
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Race 2 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-2-4-5-3-1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-2-4-3-5-1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 3 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 1Delcap Alice (2/1) 34% · fair 2-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 4Miss Candy Pop (5/2) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -43% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 3Loveitorleaveit (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -27% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 5Staymistyforme (6/1) 16% · fair 11-2, 2Lotta Latte (12/1) 8% · fair 23-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 6That'smydaughter (15/1) 6% · fair 29-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 3 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
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Race 3 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-4-3-2-5-6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-5-2-6-3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 4 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $24,480 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 1Altimeter (2/1) 31% · fair 2-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 6Boonesboro (5/2) 26% · fair 3-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 7Cause Ima Boss (7/2) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -32% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 4Lunaticus (8/1) 10% · fair 17-2, 2Chargeaholic (10/1) 9% · fair 19-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 5Run David Run (15/1) 6% · fair 17-1, 3Chondrite (30/1) 2% · fair 47-1 underlay -36% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 4 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-4-3-1-7-2 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-1-2-6-5-7-3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 5 5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 6Amani's Music (2/1) 33% · fair 2-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 1Sugar Doll (3/1) 22% · fair 7-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 7Heitzgirl (6/1) 12% · fair 7-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 3Diamondintherough (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 4Ginger Ale (4/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -62% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 5No Self Control (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -27%, 2Poverty With Aview (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -26% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 5 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
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Race 5 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-1-2-5-3-7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-3-1-5-2-4-7 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #7, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 6 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,500 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 1Five Star (5/2) 24% · fair 3-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 2I. C. U. Aggie (4/1) 22% · fair 7-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 5Lil Gitana (7/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -37% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 4Prayer For Music (9/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -38%, 7Brickhousejustice (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 8Exquisite Justice (15/1) 7% · fair 13-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 3La Peruana (15/1) 6% · fair 15-1, 6Soxit Toem (25/1) 4% · fair 25-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 6 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
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Race 6 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-1-2-4-7-8 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-8-5-2-7-3-4-6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 7 5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 2Newport Lady (3/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -33% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 7Lady Wren (4/1) 17% · fair 5-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 1Sharply (7/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -42% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 8Zarzuela (8/1) 12% · fair 7-1, 6Three Branches (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 3Polka Dot Jersey (6/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -30% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 9First Ladybug (12/1) 7% · fair 29-2, 5Angels Sing (12/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -38%, 4Turbo Kitty (15/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -30% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 7 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-7-1-8-6-3 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-4-7-1-9-8-3-5-6 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #1, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 8 1 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $23,120 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 11Purdy Darn Good (2/1) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -43% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 1Boitano (3/1) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -43% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 5Zach (5/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -60% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 3Wicked Suprise (5/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -52%, 6Nine Questions (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -44%, 8Memphis Pharoah (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -34%, 10On Palm Sunday (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -35% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 4Go Bali Go (8/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -50%, 9Leave It To Kitten (20/1) 4% · fair 26-1, 7El Michoacano (15/1) 3% · fair 67-2 underlay -55%, 12Scoville (20/1) 3% · fair 39-1 underlay -49%, 2Revs Medal (20/1) 2% · fair 50-1 underlay -60% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Race 8 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
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| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-5-8-10-2-9 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 9-11-5-4-8-1-10-7-6-3-2-12 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #1, #5, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
| Race 1 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000 | |
| Win: | 2Mitch (7/5) |
| Place: | 1Rapid Justice (3/1) |
| Show: | 7Benny's Day (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3Toy'stroubledhero (8/1), 6Mystery Impact (25/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4House Of Gold (12/1), 5Gimmel (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-7-1-2-4-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-3-1-4-7-6-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #7, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440 | |
| Win: | 6Aizhurek (9/5) |
| Place: | 2Blessed Azteca (2/1) |
| Show: | 4Cajun King (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5Gold Pan Sam (6/1), 3Magnus Crown (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Tacamo (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-2-4-5-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-2-4-3-5-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 5Staymistyforme (6/1) no strong opinion This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection. |
| Place: | 1Delcap Alice (2/1) |
| Show: | 4Miss Candy Pop (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3Loveitorleaveit (7/2), 2Lotta Latte (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6That'smydaughter (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-4-5-3-2-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-5-2-6-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $24,480 | |
| Win: | 6Boonesboro (5/2) |
| Place: | 1Altimeter (2/1) |
| Show: | 2Chargeaholic (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4Lunaticus (8/1), 7Cause Ima Boss (7/2) |
| Rest of field: | 5Run David Run (15/1), 3Chondrite (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-4-1-3-2-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-1-2-6-5-7-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520 | |
| Win: | 1Sugar Doll (3/1) |
| Place: | 6Amani's Music (2/1) |
| Show: | 7Heitzgirl (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3Diamondintherough (8/1), 4Ginger Ale (4/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Poverty With Aview (10/1), 5No Self Control (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-1-2-3-5-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-3-1-5-2-4-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #7, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,500 | |
| Win: | 1Five Star (5/2) |
| Place: | 2I. C. U. Aggie (4/1) |
| Show: | 3La Peruana (15/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4Prayer For Music (9/2), 5Lil Gitana (7/2), 6Soxit Toem (25/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7Brickhousejustice (8/1), 8Exquisite Justice (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-1-2-4-6-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-8-5-2-7-3-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520 | |
| Win: | 1Sharply (7/2) |
| Place: | 3Polka Dot Jersey (6/1) |
| Show: | 8Zarzuela (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 9First Ladybug (12/1), 7Lady Wren (4/1), 2Newport Lady (3/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6Three Branches (6/1), 4Turbo Kitty (15/1), 5Angels Sing (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-3-8-9-7-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-4-7-1-9-8-3-5-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #8, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $23,120 | |
| Win: | 1Boitano (3/1) |
| Place: | 11Purdy Darn Good (2/1) |
| Show: | 8Memphis Pharoah (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4Go Bali Go (8/1), 5Zach (5/2), 6Nine Questions (6/1), 9Leave It To Kitten (20/1) |
| Rest of field: | 10On Palm Sunday (10/1), 3Wicked Suprise (5/1), 2Revs Medal (20/1), 7El Michoacano (15/1), 12Scoville (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-5-8-10-9-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 9-11-5-4-8-1-10-7-6-3-2-12 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #11, #8, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5, |
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ
Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.
| Race 1 | AI Exacta: #2 over #1 ($1 straight; box #2-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #1, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 2 | AI Exacta: #6 over #2 ($1 straight; box #6-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #6 over #2, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 3 | AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #5, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 4 | AI Exacta: #6 over #1 ($1 straight; box #6-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #6 over #1, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 5 | AI Exacta: #6 over #1 ($1 straight; box #6-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #6 over #1, #4, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 6 | AI Exacta: #1 over #5 ($1 straight; box #1-#5 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 7 | AI Exacta: #1 over #2 ($1 straight; box #1-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #3 over #1, #8, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 8 | AI Exacta: #11 over #1 ($1 straight; box #11-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #6, #11, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
| Kelly Edge Plays (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob ?) Morning-line reliability: +0.37 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it) | |||||||
| Race | Horse | ML | Live | P(win) | Edge | ¼ Kelly | Bet on $ bankroll |
| 1 | 5Gimmel | 30/1 | — | 3.8% | +18.9% | 0.16% | $0.16 |
| 6 | 6Soxit Toem | 25/1 | — | 4.5% | +16.1% | 0.16% | $0.16 |
| TOTAL across 2 plays: | 0.3% | $0.32 | |||||
| Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly. | |||||||
| 💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line. | |||||||
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
| Race 1 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000 | |
| Win: | 2Mitch (7/5) |
| Place: | 1Rapid Justice (3/1) |
| Show: | 3Toy'stroubledhero (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Benny's Day (7/2), 6Mystery Impact (25/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4House Of Gold (12/1), 5Gimmel (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-1-7-3-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-3-1-4-7-6-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440 | |
| Win: | 6Aizhurek (9/5) |
| Place: | 2Blessed Azteca (2/1) |
| Show: | 4Cajun King (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5Gold Pan Sam (6/1), 1Tacamo (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Magnus Crown (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-2-4-5-1-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-2-4-3-5-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 5Staymistyforme (6/1) |
| Place: | 1Delcap Alice (2/1) |
| Show: | 4Miss Candy Pop (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3Loveitorleaveit (7/2), 2Lotta Latte (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6That'smydaughter (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-5-4-3-2-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-5-2-6-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $24,480 | |
| Win: | 1Altimeter (2/1) |
| Place: | 6Boonesboro (5/2) |
| Show: | 7Cause Ima Boss (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2Chargeaholic (10/1), 4Lunaticus (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Run David Run (15/1), 3Chondrite (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-1-4-7-2-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-1-2-6-5-7-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520 | |
| Win: | 6Amani's Music (2/1) |
| Place: | 3Diamondintherough (8/1) |
| Show: | 7Heitzgirl (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5No Self Control (8/1), 1Sugar Doll (3/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Poverty With Aview (10/1), 4Ginger Ale (4/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-1-2-5-3-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-3-1-5-2-4-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,500 | |
| Win: | 1Five Star (5/2) |
| Place: | 2I. C. U. Aggie (4/1) |
| Show: | 3La Peruana (15/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4Prayer For Music (9/2), 5Lil Gitana (7/2), 6Soxit Toem (25/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7Brickhousejustice (8/1), 8Exquisite Justice (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-1-2-4-6-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-8-5-2-7-3-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520 | |
| Win: | 1Sharply (7/2) |
| Place: | 7Lady Wren (4/1) |
| Show: | 2Newport Lady (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3Polka Dot Jersey (6/1), 8Zarzuela (8/1), 6Three Branches (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9First Ladybug (12/1), 5Angels Sing (12/1), 4Turbo Kitty (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-7-2-3-8-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-4-7-1-9-8-3-5-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $23,120 | |
| Win: | 1Boitano (3/1) |
| Place: | 11Purdy Darn Good (2/1) |
| Show: | 5Zach (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 8Memphis Pharoah (8/1), 6Nine Questions (6/1), 4Go Bali Go (8/1), 3Wicked Suprise (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 10On Palm Sunday (10/1), 9Leave It To Kitten (20/1), 2Revs Medal (20/1), 7El Michoacano (15/1), 12Scoville (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-5-8-10-1-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 9-11-5-4-8-1-10-7-6-3-2-12 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #11, #5, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
| Race 1 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000 | |
| Win: | 2Mitch (7/5) |
| Place: | 1Rapid Justice (3/1) |
| Show: | 3Toy'stroubledhero (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Benny's Day (7/2), 4House Of Gold (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6Mystery Impact (25/1), 5Gimmel (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-1-7-6-3-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-3-1-4-7-6-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440 | |
| Win: | 6Aizhurek (9/5) |
| Place: | 2Blessed Azteca (2/1) |
| Show: | 4Cajun King (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3Magnus Crown (12/1), 5Gold Pan Sam (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Tacamo (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-2-4-3-5-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-2-4-3-5-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000 | |
| Win: | 1Delcap Alice (2/1) |
| Place: | 5Staymistyforme (6/1) |
| Show: | 4Miss Candy Pop (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3Loveitorleaveit (7/2), 2Lotta Latte (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6That'smydaughter (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-4-3-5-2-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-4-5-2-6-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $24,480 | |
| Win: | 6Boonesboro (5/2) |
| Place: | 1Altimeter (2/1) |
| Show: | 7Cause Ima Boss (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2Chargeaholic (10/1), 4Lunaticus (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Run David Run (15/1), 3Chondrite (30/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-1-4-7-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-1-2-6-5-7-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520 | |
| Win: | 6Amani's Music (2/1) |
| Place: | 1Sugar Doll (3/1) |
| Show: | 4Ginger Ale (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Heitzgirl (6/1), 3Diamondintherough (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Poverty With Aview (10/1), 5No Self Control (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-1-2-3-5-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-3-1-5-2-4-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #4, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,500 | |
| Win: | 1Five Star (5/2) |
| Place: | 2I. C. U. Aggie (4/1) |
| Show: | 3La Peruana (15/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4Prayer For Music (9/2), 5Lil Gitana (7/2), 6Soxit Toem (25/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7Brickhousejustice (8/1), 8Exquisite Justice (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-1-2-4-6-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-8-5-2-7-3-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520 | |
| Win: | 3Polka Dot Jersey (6/1) |
| Place: | 1Sharply (7/2) |
| Show: | 8Zarzuela (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Lady Wren (4/1), 2Newport Lady (3/1), 9First Ladybug (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6Three Branches (6/1), 4Turbo Kitty (15/1), 5Angels Sing (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-1-8-7-2-9 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-4-7-1-9-8-3-5-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #8, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 Miles · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $23,120 | |
| Win: | 1Boitano (3/1) |
| Place: | 6Nine Questions (6/1) |
| Show: | 11Purdy Darn Good (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5Zach (5/2), 4Go Bali Go (8/1), 8Memphis Pharoah (8/1), 10On Palm Sunday (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9Leave It To Kitten (20/1), 3Wicked Suprise (5/1), 2Revs Medal (20/1), 7El Michoacano (15/1), 12Scoville (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-5-8-10-6-9 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 9-11-5-4-8-1-10-7-6-3-2-12 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #11, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1, |
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ
Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.
| Pick 3 R1-3 | R1: #2,#1,#7 (71%) / R2: #6,#2 (68%) / R3: #1,#4,#3 (70%) $18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 34% |
| Pick 3 R2-4 | R2: #6,#2 (68%) / R3: #1,#4,#3 (70%) / R4: #1,#6,#7 (73%) $18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 35% |
| Pick 3 R3-5 | R3: #1,#4,#3 (70%) / R4: #1,#6,#7 (73%) / R5: #6,#1,#7 (67%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 34% |
| Pick 3 R4-6 | R4: #1,#6,#7 (73%) / R5: #6,#1,#7 (67%) / R6: #1,#2,#5 (61%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 30% |
| Pick 4 R1-4 | R1: #2,#1,#7 (71%) / R2: #6,#2 (68%) / R3: #1,#4,#3 (70%) / R4: #1,#6,#7 (73%) $54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25% |
| Pick 4 R2-5 | R2: #6,#2 (68%) / R3: #1,#4,#3 (70%) / R4: #1,#6,#7 (73%) / R5: #6,#1,#7 (67%) $54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23% |
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
| AIZHUREK | ALTIMETER | AMANI'S MUSIC | ANGELS SING | BENNY'S DAY |
| BOITANO | BOONESBORO | BP ELECTRIC COWBOY | BRICKHOUSEJUSTICE | CAJUN KING |
| CHARGEAHOLIC | CHONDRITE | CORONAS SPICE | DALE M | DARE TO FLY |
| DIAMONDINTHEROUGH | EL MICHOACANO | EXQUISITE JUSTICE | FIRST LADYBUG | FIVE STAR |
| GINGER ALE | GO BALI GO | GOLD KINGS MAWNEE | GOLD PAN SAM | HEITZGIRL |
| I. C. U. AGGIE | JESS A FAVORITE | KISS OF CORONA | LA PERUANA | LADY WREN |
| LIGHTS N LIPS | LIL GITANA | LOTTA LATTE | LOVEITORLEAVEIT | LUNATICUS |
| MALEFICENT DASH | MEMPHIS PHAROAH | MIDNIGHT COWBOY 123 | MISS CANDY POP | MITCH |
| NEWPORT LADY | NINE QUESTIONS | NO SELF CONTROL | ON PALM SUNDAY | POLKA DOT JERSEY |
| PRAYER FOR MUSIC | PURDY DARN GOOD | RAPID JUSTICE | REVS MEDAL | ROSES AFTER MIDNIGHT |
| SCOVILLE | SHARPLY | SHINING PATH | SOXIT TOEM | STAYMISTYFORME |
| TACAMO | TEA QUILA | THAT'SMYDAUGHTER | THREE BRANCHES | TOY'STROUBLEDHERO |
| WICKED SUPRISE | ZACH | ZARZUELA |
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