Posted inAnalysis Picks

Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Horseshoe Indianapolis, September 29, 2026

No CommentsPosted inAnalysis, Picks

How did these picks do?

Results for this card as of 8:56 AM, graded from the official charts. Each row is that section's top pick in every race with a result; races still pending are not counted. The full week is in the weekly recap.

SectionRaces gradedWon2nd3rdWin %
Algo 1730043%
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)750071%
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)610117%
Experimental Weight Set 2732143%
Experimental Weight Set 3840050%

Kelly Edge Plays: 8 flagged longshot(s) graded, 0 won, 1 finished in the money.

AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied

Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.

TrackRaceModelNew Top PickWhy
IND2Model Algo 1#3 – Big Boy Thunder1 scratch(es)
IND2Model Algo 2 (Ensemble)#3 – Big Boy Thunder1 scratch(es)
IND2Model Algo 3 (Win Prob)#3 – Big Boy Thunder1 scratch(es)
IND4Model Algo 3 (Win Prob)#2 – Omi Maria3 scratch(es)
IND6Model Weight set 2#8 – Practical Rose2 scratch(es)

Plays voided by scratches — these published value plays are officially scratched; win bets on them are refunds, so strike them from your card:

Where the experts back our strongest pick today

In 5 of today's 8 races, the published handicappers landed on the same horse as Algo 2, our best-performing model. That agreement is the strongest single signal we have measured: across 1,389 graded races, the races where they agreed won 39.8% of the time against 28.6% where they did not — a wider gap than between any two of our own algorithms.

Today's agreement races — IND 3, 5, 6, 7, 8.

Which horse the two agree on is part of Algo 2, included with Insider and above. The race numbers above are free to everyone: if you are playing these races, you now know the experts and our strongest model are pointing the same way.


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Speed Bias (3/1)
Place:7Gettysburg Address (4/1)
Show:1Montauk Point (6/1)
Other contenders:11Coach Knight (3/1), 4Just Like Max (9/2), 5Mansfield Tiger (7/2), 2Scenic Justice (15/1)
Rest of field:9Cheesesteak (8/1), 3Moonrise Drive (20/1), 8Lavender Earl (30/1), 10Cringe (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 327964
🎯 Longshots: 2611793548110
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #1, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Thunder Appeal (2/1)
Place:3Big Boy Thunder (5/2)
Show:2Mayweather (3/1)
Other contenders:1Final Countdown (6/1), 6Dark Bart (12/1)
Rest of field:5Mahmoud's Cloud (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 142635
🎯 Longshots: 432156
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Powerful Justice (4/5)
Place:4Lil Chance (7/2)
Show:6Leo's Beetle Bomb (5/1)
Other contenders:1Mountain Mike (12/1), 7Box (15/1), 2Senor Justice (25/1)
Rest of field:8Reachin Out (20/1), 5Starspangled Louie (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 386417
🎯 Longshots: 31486275
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Omi Maria (3/1)
Place:5Ignoring Alana (4/1)
Show:4Boss Lady Kar (5/1)
Other contenders:1Quaintrelle (8/1), 14Beetwood Mac (10/1), 3Zarzuela (10/1), 13Maid Of Steel (4/1)
Rest of field:8Dart To Nabers (8/1), 10Seismic Shift (6/1), 6Deseray (15/1), 7Sea Oats (15/1), 9Hot Dawg (30/1), 12Eyael (30/1), 11K P Kween (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 11125414
🎯 Longshots: 2134149126115871310
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Jordans Deal (6/1)
Place:1Lucky N Good (4/1)
Show:7Our Lady Donna D (7/2)
Other contenders:9Sound The Siren (5/1), 2Aunt Leila's Sky (10/1), 11Pernicious (8/1), 6Loveitorleaveit (12/1)
Rest of field:3Timeless Justice (25/1), 4Miss Candy Pop (12/1), 10Sheshois (20/1), 8Sassy Julia (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 921847
🎯 Longshots: 2511134106798
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #7, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:8Practical Rose (7/2)
Place:7George Of Will (9/2)
Show:5Kendom (5/1)
Other contenders:10Martone (5/1), 2Big Caslon (10/1), 6Captivate (6/1), 1My Awesome Gold (12/1)
Rest of field:3Tiznot (20/1), 4Inthebudget (25/1), 11Thousand Byus (12/1), 9Cornbred (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8751026
🎯 Longshots: 8711532491106
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #5, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Red Clay Halo (9/2)
Place:7Hoosier Surprise (2/1)
Show:9No Ceiling (7/2)
Other contenders:4Isometric (8/1), 5Sovereign Stride (10/1), 6Secrets Out (8/1)
Rest of field:8Can't Fool April (10/1), 10Bertie's World (30/1), 2Hoo's A Good Girl (20/1), 3Gios Gorgeous Girl (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 719456
🎯 Longshots: 47196810325
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #9, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Amy El (5/2)
Place:3Whakaari (3/1)
Show:2Once More (5/1)
Other contenders:6Wealth N Taste (5/1), 8Obvious Agenda (6/1), 5Scripted Love (15/1), 11Royal Tiara (20/1)
Rest of field:4Apple Biscuit (25/1), 9Rub It In Reba (30/1), 10Jiddy Go (25/1), 7Cherry Pink (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2111364
🎯 Longshots: 6531941082117
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Horseshoe Indianapolis — in-the-money rate

How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 74 graded races at Horseshoe Indianapolis, 2026-09-08 to 2026-09-24.

0%16%32%48%64%Our top pick: 51.4% from 74 racesOur top pick51.4%Morning-line favourite: 48.6% from 74 racesMorning-line favourite48.6%

In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick51.4%74
Morning-line favourite48.6%74
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:11Coach Knight (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -25%
Place:6Speed Bias (3/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -36%
Show:5Mansfield Tiger (7/2) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -41%
Other contenders:7Gettysburg Address (4/1) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -45%, 1Montauk Point (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -28%, 4Just Like Max (9/2) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -51%, 9Cheesesteak (8/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -53%
Rest of field:2Scenic Justice (15/1) 5% · fair 39-2, 3Moonrise Drive (20/1) 2% · fair 93-2 underlay -57%, 10Cringe (25/1) 2% · fair 129-2 underlay -61%, 8Lavender Earl (30/1) 1% · fair 89-1 underlay -66%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Coach Knight — 19.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Coach Knight19.9% ◀Speed Bias — 17.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Speed Bias17.7%Mansfield Tiger — 14.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Mansfield Tiger14.5%Gettysburg Address — 12.2% win probability, morning line 4/1Gettysburg Address12.2%Montauk Point — 10.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Montauk Point10.8%Just Like Max — 9.7% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Just Like Max9.7%Cheesesteak — 5.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Cheesesteak5.6%Scenic Justice — 4.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Scenic Justice4.9%Moonrise Drive — 2.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Moonrise Drive2.1%Cringe — 1.5% win probability, morning line 25/1Cringe1.5%Lavender Earl — 1.1% win probability, morning line 30/1Lavender Earl1.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Coach Knight19.9%3/1
Speed Bias17.7%3/1
Mansfield Tiger14.5%3.5/1
Gettysburg Address12.2%4/1
Montauk Point10.8%6/1
Just Like Max9.7%4.5/1
Cheesesteak5.6%8/1
Scenic Justice4.9%15/1
Moonrise Drive2.1%20/1
Cringe1.5%25/1
Lavender Earl1.1%30/1
🌧️ Off-track: 329746
🎯 Longshots: 2611793548110
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #6, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:4Thunder Appeal (2/1) 36% · fair 2-1
Place:3Big Boy Thunder (5/2) 28% · fair 5-2
Show:2Mayweather (3/1) 17% · fair 9-2 underlay -36%
Other contenders:1Final Countdown (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -33%, 6Dark Bart (12/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -25%
Rest of field:5Mahmoud's Cloud (30/1) 3% · fair 65-2
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Thunder Appeal — 35.7% win probability, morning line 2/1Thunder Appeal35.7% ◀Big Boy Thunder — 27.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Big Boy Thunder27.9%Mayweather — 17.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Mayweather17.5%Final Countdown — 10.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Final Countdown10.1%Dark Bart — 5.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Dark Bart5.9%Mahmoud'S Cloud — 3.0% win probability, morning line 30/1Mahmoud'S Cloud3.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Thunder Appeal35.7%2/1
Big Boy Thunder27.9%2.5/1
Mayweather17.5%3/1
Final Countdown10.1%6/1
Dark Bart5.9%12/1
Mahmoud'S Cloud3.0%30/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherThunder Appeal: model 35.7% vs market 29.7% (+6.0 points)Thunder Appeal+6.0Big Boy Thunder: model 27.9% vs market 25.5% (+2.4 points)Big Boy Thunder+2.4Mayweather: model 17.5% vs market 22.3% (-4.8 points)Mayweather-4.8Final Countdown: model 10.1% vs market 12.7% (-2.7 points)Final Countdown-2.7Dark Bart: model 5.9% vs market 6.9% (-1.0 points)Dark Bart-1.0Mahmoud'S Cloud: model 3.0% vs market 2.9% (+0.1 points)Mahmoud'S Cloud+0.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Thunder Appeal35.7%29.7%+6.0
Big Boy Thunder27.9%25.5%+2.4
Mayweather17.5%22.3%-4.8
Final Countdown10.1%12.7%-2.7
Dark Bart5.9%6.9%-1.0
Mahmoud'S Cloud3.0%2.9%+0.1
🌧️ Off-track: 146235
🎯 Longshots: 432156
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:3Powerful Justice (4/5) 58% · fair 4-5
Place:4Lil Chance (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -26%
Show:6Leo's Beetle Bomb (5/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -61%
Other contenders:1Mountain Mike (12/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -38%, 8Reachin Out (20/1) 4% · fair 51-2, 7Box (15/1) 4% · fair 27-1 underlay -44%
Rest of field:5Starspangled Louie (20/1) 3% · fair 67-2 underlay -41%, 2Senor Justice (25/1) 2% · fair 99-2 underlay -50%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Powerful Justice — 58.0% win probability, morning line 0.8/1Powerful Justice58.0% ◀Lil Chance — 17.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Lil Chance17.5%Leo'S Beetle Bomb — 7.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Leo'S Beetle Bomb7.3%Mountain Mike — 4.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Mountain Mike4.9%Reachin Out — 3.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Reachin Out3.8%Box — 3.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Box3.6%Starspangled Louie — 2.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Starspangled Louie2.9%Senor Justice — 2.0% win probability, morning line 25/1Senor Justice2.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Powerful Justice58.0%0.8/1
Lil Chance17.5%3.5/1
Leo'S Beetle Bomb7.3%5/1
Mountain Mike4.9%12/1
Reachin Out3.8%20/1
Box3.6%15/1
Starspangled Louie2.9%20/1
Senor Justice2.0%25/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherPowerful Justice: model 58.0% vs market 45.6% (+12.4 points)Powerful Justice+12.4Lil Chance: model 17.5% vs market 18.3% (-0.7 points)Lil Chance-0.7Leo'S Beetle Bomb: model 7.3% vs market 13.7% (-6.4 points)Leo'S Beetle Bomb-6.4Mountain Mike: model 4.9% vs market 6.3% (-1.4 points)Mountain Mike-1.4Reachin Out: model 3.8% vs market 3.9% (-0.1 points)Reachin Out-0.1Box: model 3.6% vs market 5.1% (-1.5 points)Box-1.5Starspangled Louie: model 2.9% vs market 3.9% (-1.0 points)Starspangled Louie-1.0Senor Justice: model 2.0% vs market 3.2% (-1.2 points)Senor Justice-1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Powerful Justice58.0%45.6%+12.4
Lil Chance17.5%18.3%-0.7
Leo'S Beetle Bomb7.3%13.7%-6.4
Mountain Mike4.9%6.3%-1.4
Reachin Out3.8%3.9%-0.1
Box3.6%5.1%-1.5
Starspangled Louie2.9%3.9%-1.0
Senor Justice2.0%3.2%-1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 836175
🎯 Longshots: 31486275
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440
Win:13Maid Of Steel (4/1) 19% · fair 9-2
Place:2Omi Maria (3/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -53%
Show:4Boss Lady Kar (5/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -38%
Other contenders:5Ignoring Alana (4/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -55%, 10Seismic Shift (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -43%, 8Dart To Nabers (8/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -37%, 3Zarzuela (10/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -31%
Rest of field:1Quaintrelle (8/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -50%, 14Beetwood Mac (10/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -45%, 9Hot Dawg (30/1) 4% · fair 53-2, 6Deseray (15/1) 3% · fair 57-2 underlay -47%, 7Sea Oats (15/1) 3% · fair 30-1 underlay -50%, 12Eyael (30/1) 2% · fair 119-2 underlay -50%, 11K P Kween (30/1) 1% · fair 74-1 underlay -60%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Maid Of Steel — 18.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Maid Of Steel18.6% ◀Omi Maria — 13.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Omi Maria13.5%Boss Lady Kar — 11.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Boss Lady Kar11.0%Ignoring Alana — 10.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Ignoring Alana10.1%Seismic Shift — 8.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Seismic Shift8.6%Dart To Nabers — 7.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Dart To Nabers7.3%Zarzuela — 6.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Zarzuela6.5%Quaintrelle — 5.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Quaintrelle5.9%Beetwood Mac — 5.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Beetwood Mac5.2%Hot Dawg — 3.6% win probability, morning line 30/1Hot Dawg3.6%Deseray — 3.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Deseray3.4%Sea Oats — 3.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Sea Oats3.2%Eyael — 1.7% win probability, morning line 30/1Eyael1.7%K P Kween — 1.3% win probability, morning line 30/1K P Kween1.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Maid Of Steel18.6%4/1
Omi Maria13.5%3/1
Boss Lady Kar11.0%5/1
Ignoring Alana10.1%4/1
Seismic Shift8.6%6/1
Dart To Nabers7.3%8/1
Zarzuela6.5%10/1
Quaintrelle5.9%8/1
Beetwood Mac5.2%10/1
Hot Dawg3.6%30/1
Deseray3.4%15/1
Sea Oats3.2%15/1
Eyael1.7%30/1
K P Kween1.3%30/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMaid Of Steel: model 18.6% vs market 12.6% (+6.0 points)Maid Of Steel+6.0Omi Maria: model 13.5% vs market 15.8% (-2.3 points)Omi Maria-2.3Boss Lady Kar: model 11.0% vs market 10.5% (+0.5 points)Boss Lady Kar+0.5Ignoring Alana: model 10.1% vs market 12.6% (-2.5 points)Ignoring Alana-2.5Seismic Shift: model 8.6% vs market 9.0% (-0.4 points)Seismic Shift-0.4Dart To Nabers: model 7.3% vs market 7.0% (+0.2 points)Dart To Nabers+0.2Zarzuela: model 6.5% vs market 5.7% (+0.7 points)Zarzuela+0.7Quaintrelle: model 5.9% vs market 7.0% (-1.1 points)Quaintrelle-1.1Beetwood Mac: model 5.2% vs market 5.7% (-0.5 points)Beetwood Mac-0.5Hot Dawg: model 3.6% vs market 2.0% (+1.6 points)Hot Dawg+1.6Deseray: model 3.4% vs market 3.9% (-0.5 points)Deseray-0.5Sea Oats: model 3.2% vs market 3.9% (-0.7 points)Sea Oats-0.7Eyael: model 1.7% vs market 2.0% (-0.4 points)Eyael-0.4K P Kween: model 1.3% vs market 2.0% (-0.7 points)K P Kween-0.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Maid Of Steel18.6%12.6%+6.0
Omi Maria13.5%15.8%-2.3
Boss Lady Kar11.0%10.5%+0.5
Ignoring Alana10.1%12.6%-2.5
Seismic Shift8.6%9.0%-0.4
Dart To Nabers7.3%7.0%+0.2
Zarzuela6.5%5.7%+0.7
Quaintrelle5.9%7.0%-1.1
Beetwood Mac5.2%5.7%-0.5
Hot Dawg3.6%2.0%+1.6
Deseray3.4%3.9%-0.5
Sea Oats3.2%3.9%-0.7
Eyael1.7%2.0%-0.4
K P Kween1.3%2.0%-0.7
🌧️ Off-track: 11124510
🎯 Longshots: 2134149126115871310
🎫 Trifecta play: #13 over #2, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:1Lucky N Good (4/1) 19% · fair 4-1
Place:7Our Lady Donna D (7/2) 19% · fair 9-2
Show:5Jordans Deal (6/1) 18% · fair 9-2 overlay +35%
Other contenders:9Sound The Siren (5/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -53%, 11Pernicious (8/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -38%, 6Loveitorleaveit (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 2Aunt Leila's Sky (10/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -40%
Rest of field:4Miss Candy Pop (12/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -34%, 10Sheshois (20/1) 5% · fair 20-1, 3Timeless Justice (25/1) 3% · fair 57-2, 8Sassy Julia (30/1) 2% · fair 58-1 underlay -48%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Lucky N Good — 19.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Lucky N Good19.5% ◀Our Lady Donna D — 19.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Our Lady Donna D19.0%Jordans Deal — 18.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Jordans Deal18.3%Sound The Siren — 8.6% win probability, morning line 5/1Sound The Siren8.6%Pernicious — 7.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Pernicious7.1%Loveitorleaveit — 6.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Loveitorleaveit6.8%Aunt Leila'S Sky — 5.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Aunt Leila'S Sky5.6%Miss Candy Pop — 5.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Miss Candy Pop5.2%Sheshois — 4.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Sheshois4.8%Timeless Justice — 3.4% win probability, morning line 25/1Timeless Justice3.4%Sassy Julia — 1.7% win probability, morning line 30/1Sassy Julia1.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Lucky N Good19.5%4/1
Our Lady Donna D19.0%3.5/1
Jordans Deal18.3%6/1
Sound The Siren8.6%5/1
Pernicious7.1%8/1
Loveitorleaveit6.8%12/1
Aunt Leila'S Sky5.6%10/1
Miss Candy Pop5.2%12/1
Sheshois4.8%20/1
Timeless Justice3.4%25/1
Sassy Julia1.7%30/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherLucky N Good: model 19.5% vs market 16.6% (+2.9 points)Lucky N Good+2.9Our Lady Donna D: model 19.0% vs market 18.4% (+0.6 points)Our Lady Donna D+0.6Jordans Deal: model 18.3% vs market 11.8% (+6.5 points)Jordans Deal+6.5Sound The Siren: model 8.6% vs market 13.8% (-5.2 points)Sound The Siren-5.2Pernicious: model 7.1% vs market 9.2% (-2.1 points)Pernicious-2.1Loveitorleaveit: model 6.8% vs market 6.4% (+0.4 points)Loveitorleaveit+0.4Aunt Leila'S Sky: model 5.6% vs market 7.5% (-1.9 points)Aunt Leila'S Sky-1.9Miss Candy Pop: model 5.2% vs market 6.4% (-1.2 points)Miss Candy Pop-1.2Sheshois: model 4.8% vs market 3.9% (+0.8 points)Sheshois+0.8Timeless Justice: model 3.4% vs market 3.2% (+0.2 points)Timeless Justice+0.2Sassy Julia: model 1.7% vs market 2.7% (-1.0 points)Sassy Julia-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Lucky N Good19.5%16.6%+2.9
Our Lady Donna D19.0%18.4%+0.6
Jordans Deal18.3%11.8%+6.5
Sound The Siren8.6%13.8%-5.2
Pernicious7.1%9.2%-2.1
Loveitorleaveit6.8%6.4%+0.4
Aunt Leila'S Sky5.6%7.5%-1.9
Miss Candy Pop5.2%6.4%-1.2
Sheshois4.8%3.9%+0.8
Timeless Justice3.4%3.2%+0.2
Sassy Julia1.7%2.7%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 928416
🎯 Longshots: 2511134106798
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #5, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:7George Of Will (9/2) 21% · fair 4-1
Place:8Practical Rose (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:5Kendom (5/1) 15% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:10Martone (5/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -28%, 6Captivate (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -29%, 2Big Caslon (10/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -40%, 11Thousand Byus (12/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -31%
Rest of field:1My Awesome Gold (12/1) 4% · fair 21-1 underlay -44%, 3Tiznot (20/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -31%, 4Inthebudget (25/1) 2% · fair 89-2 underlay -44%, 9Cornbred (30/1) 2% · fair 95-2 underlay -37%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

George Of Will — 20.8% win probability, morning line 4.5/1George Of Will20.8% ◀Practical Rose — 18.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Practical Rose18.2%Kendom — 14.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Kendom14.7%Martone — 12.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Martone12.5%Captivate — 10.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Captivate10.6%Big Caslon — 5.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Big Caslon5.6%Thousand Byus — 5.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Thousand Byus5.4%My Awesome Gold — 4.5% win probability, morning line 12/1My Awesome Gold4.5%Tiznot — 3.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Tiznot3.3%Inthebudget — 2.2% win probability, morning line 25/1Inthebudget2.2%Cornbred — 2.1% win probability, morning line 30/1Cornbred2.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
George Of Will20.8%4.5/1
Practical Rose18.2%3.5/1
Kendom14.7%5/1
Martone12.5%5/1
Captivate10.6%6/1
Big Caslon5.6%10/1
Thousand Byus5.4%12/1
My Awesome Gold4.5%12/1
Tiznot3.3%20/1
Inthebudget2.2%25/1
Cornbred2.1%30/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGeorge Of Will: model 20.8% vs market 14.6% (+6.2 points)George Of Will+6.2Practical Rose: model 18.2% vs market 17.9% (+0.4 points)Practical Rose+0.4Kendom: model 14.7% vs market 13.4% (+1.3 points)Kendom+1.3Martone: model 12.5% vs market 13.4% (-0.9 points)Martone-0.9Captivate: model 10.6% vs market 11.5% (-0.9 points)Captivate-0.9Big Caslon: model 5.6% vs market 7.3% (-1.7 points)Big Caslon-1.7Thousand Byus: model 5.4% vs market 6.2% (-0.8 points)Thousand Byus-0.8My Awesome Gold: model 4.5% vs market 6.2% (-1.7 points)My Awesome Gold-1.7Tiznot: model 3.3% vs market 3.8% (-0.5 points)Tiznot-0.5Inthebudget: model 2.2% vs market 3.1% (-0.9 points)Inthebudget-0.9Cornbred: model 2.1% vs market 2.6% (-0.5 points)Cornbred-0.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
George Of Will20.8%14.6%+6.2
Practical Rose18.2%17.9%+0.4
Kendom14.7%13.4%+1.3
Martone12.5%13.4%-0.9
Captivate10.6%11.5%-0.9
Big Caslon5.6%7.3%-1.7
Thousand Byus5.4%6.2%-0.8
My Awesome Gold4.5%6.2%-1.7
Tiznot3.3%3.8%-0.5
Inthebudget2.2%3.1%-0.9
Cornbred2.1%2.6%-0.5
🌧️ Off-track: 7851062
🎯 Longshots: 8711532491106
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #5, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:7Hoosier Surprise (2/1) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -33%
Place:9No Ceiling (7/2) 25% · fair 3-1
Show:1Red Clay Halo (9/2) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -29%
Other contenders:6Secrets Out (8/1) 11% · fair 17-2, 4Isometric (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -44%, 5Sovereign Stride (10/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -32%
Rest of field:8Can't Fool April (10/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -38%, 3Gios Gorgeous Girl (25/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -27%, 2Hoo's A Good Girl (20/1) 2% · fair 41-1 underlay -51%, 10Bertie's World (30/1) 2% · fair 121-2 underlay -50%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Hoosier Surprise — 25.2% win probability, morning line 2/1Hoosier Surprise25.2% ◀No Ceiling — 24.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1No Ceiling24.9%Red Clay Halo — 13.7% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Red Clay Halo13.7%Secrets Out — 10.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Secrets Out10.6%Isometric — 6.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Isometric6.6%Sovereign Stride — 6.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Sovereign Stride6.4%Can'T Fool April — 5.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Can'T Fool April5.8%Gios Gorgeous Girl — 2.8% win probability, morning line 25/1Gios Gorgeous Girl2.8%Hoo'S A Good Girl — 2.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Hoo'S A Good Girl2.4%Bertie'S World — 1.6% win probability, morning line 30/1Bertie'S World1.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Hoosier Surprise25.2%2/1
No Ceiling24.9%3.5/1
Red Clay Halo13.7%4.5/1
Secrets Out10.6%8/1
Isometric6.6%8/1
Sovereign Stride6.4%10/1
Can'T Fool April5.8%10/1
Gios Gorgeous Girl2.8%25/1
Hoo'S A Good Girl2.4%20/1
Bertie'S World1.6%30/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHoosier Surprise: model 25.2% vs market 26.5% (-1.3 points)Hoosier Surprise-1.3No Ceiling: model 24.9% vs market 17.6% (+7.3 points)No Ceiling+7.3Red Clay Halo: model 13.7% vs market 14.4% (-0.8 points)Red Clay Halo-0.8Secrets Out: model 10.6% vs market 8.8% (+1.8 points)Secrets Out+1.8Isometric: model 6.6% vs market 8.8% (-2.3 points)Isometric-2.3Sovereign Stride: model 6.4% vs market 7.2% (-0.8 points)Sovereign Stride-0.8Can'T Fool April: model 5.8% vs market 7.2% (-1.4 points)Can'T Fool April-1.4Gios Gorgeous Girl: model 2.8% vs market 3.1% (-0.2 points)Gios Gorgeous Girl-0.2Hoo'S A Good Girl: model 2.4% vs market 3.8% (-1.4 points)Hoo'S A Good Girl-1.4Bertie'S World: model 1.6% vs market 2.6% (-0.9 points)Bertie'S World-0.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Hoosier Surprise25.2%26.5%-1.3
No Ceiling24.9%17.6%+7.3
Red Clay Halo13.7%14.4%-0.8
Secrets Out10.6%8.8%+1.8
Isometric6.6%8.8%-2.3
Sovereign Stride6.4%7.2%-0.8
Can'T Fool April5.8%7.2%-1.4
Gios Gorgeous Girl2.8%3.1%-0.2
Hoo'S A Good Girl2.4%3.8%-1.4
Bertie'S World1.6%2.6%-0.9
🌧️ Off-track: 791645
🎯 Longshots: 47196810325
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #9, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:1Amy El (5/2) 26% · fair 3-1
Place:3Whakaari (3/1) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -30%
Show:8Obvious Agenda (6/1) 14% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:6Wealth N Taste (5/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -28%, 2Once More (5/1) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -30%, 11Royal Tiara (20/1) 5% · fair 39-2, 5Scripted Love (15/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -34%
Rest of field:10Jiddy Go (25/1) 2% · fair 81-2 underlay -39%, 4Apple Biscuit (25/1) 2% · fair 95-2 underlay -47%, 9Rub It In Reba (30/1) 2% · fair 57-1 underlay -47%, 7Cherry Pink (30/1) 1% · fair 169-2 underlay -65%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Amy El — 25.8% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Amy El25.8% ◀Whakaari — 18.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Whakaari18.9%Obvious Agenda — 13.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Obvious Agenda13.9%Wealth N Taste — 12.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Wealth N Taste12.7%Once More — 12.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Once More12.2%Royal Tiara — 4.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Royal Tiara4.9%Scripted Love — 4.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Scripted Love4.2%Jiddy Go — 2.4% win probability, morning line 25/1Jiddy Go2.4%Apple Biscuit — 2.1% win probability, morning line 25/1Apple Biscuit2.1%Rub It In Reba — 1.7% win probability, morning line 30/1Rub It In Reba1.7%Cherry Pink — 1.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Cherry Pink1.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Amy El25.8%2.5/1
Whakaari18.9%3/1
Obvious Agenda13.9%6/1
Wealth N Taste12.7%5/1
Once More12.2%5/1
Royal Tiara4.9%20/1
Scripted Love4.2%15/1
Jiddy Go2.4%25/1
Apple Biscuit2.1%25/1
Rub It In Reba1.7%30/1
Cherry Pink1.2%30/1
🌧️ Off-track: 11213610
🎯 Longshots: 6531941082117
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #8, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:6Speed Bias (3/1)
Place:7Gettysburg Address (4/1)
Show:1Montauk Point (6/1)
Other contenders:11Coach Knight (3/1), 4Just Like Max (9/2), 5Mansfield Tiger (7/2), 2Scenic Justice (15/1)
Rest of field:9Cheesesteak (8/1), 3Moonrise Drive (20/1), 10Cringe (25/1), 8Lavender Earl (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 276394
🎯 Longshots: 2611793548110
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #1, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:4Thunder Appeal (2/1)
Place:3Big Boy Thunder (5/2)
Show:2Mayweather (3/1)
Other contenders:1Final Countdown (6/1), 6Dark Bart (12/1)
Rest of field:5Mahmoud's Cloud (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 142365
🎯 Longshots: 432156
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:3Powerful Justice (4/5)
Place:4Lil Chance (7/2)
Show:1Mountain Mike (12/1)
Other contenders:2Senor Justice (25/1), 8Reachin Out (20/1), 6Leo's Beetle Bomb (5/1)
Rest of field:7Box (15/1), 5Starspangled Louie (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 348126
🎯 Longshots: 31486275
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440
Win:2Omi Maria (3/1)
Place:1Quaintrelle (8/1)
Show:3Zarzuela (10/1)
Other contenders:4Boss Lady Kar (5/1), 5Ignoring Alana (4/1), 14Beetwood Mac (10/1), 9Hot Dawg (30/1)
Rest of field:6Deseray (15/1), 11K P Kween (30/1), 10Seismic Shift (6/1), 8Dart To Nabers (8/1), 12Eyael (30/1), 7Sea Oats (15/1), 13Maid Of Steel (4/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1112345
🎯 Longshots: 2134149126115871310
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:5Jordans Deal (6/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:1Lucky N Good (4/1)
Show:2Aunt Leila's Sky (10/1)
Other contenders:9Sound The Siren (5/1), 7Our Lady Donna D (7/2), 11Pernicious (8/1), 3Timeless Justice (25/1)
Rest of field:6Loveitorleaveit (12/1), 4Miss Candy Pop (12/1), 10Sheshois (20/1), 8Sassy Julia (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9215711
🎯 Longshots: 2511134106798
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #2, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:7George Of Will (9/2)
Place:1My Awesome Gold (12/1)
Show:11Thousand Byus (12/1)
Other contenders:8Practical Rose (7/2), 5Kendom (5/1), 2Big Caslon (10/1), 3Tiznot (20/1)
Rest of field:4Inthebudget (25/1), 9Cornbred (30/1), 10Martone (5/1), 6Captivate (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7118523
🎯 Longshots: 8711532491106
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #11, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:9No Ceiling (7/2)
Place:7Hoosier Surprise (2/1)
Show:4Isometric (8/1)
Other contenders:6Secrets Out (8/1), 8Can't Fool April (10/1), 1Red Clay Halo (9/2)
Rest of field:10Bertie's World (30/1), 5Sovereign Stride (10/1), 2Hoo's A Good Girl (20/1), 3Gios Gorgeous Girl (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 794681
🎯 Longshots: 47196810325
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #7, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:1Amy El (5/2)
Place:2Once More (5/1)
Show:8Obvious Agenda (6/1)
Other contenders:6Wealth N Taste (5/1), 3Whakaari (3/1), 11Royal Tiara (20/1), 5Scripted Love (15/1)
Rest of field:4Apple Biscuit (25/1), 10Jiddy Go (25/1), 9Rub It In Reba (30/1), 7Cherry Pink (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2111364
🎯 Longshots: 6531941082117
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #8, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #6 over #11 ($1 straight; box #6-#11 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #7, #1, #11 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #4, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #4, #6, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #2 over #4 ($1 straight; box #2-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #4, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #5 over #1 ($1 straight; box #5-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #1, #9, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #7 over #8 ($1 straight; box #7-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #1, #11, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #7 over #9 ($1 straight; box #7-#9 for cover)
Trifecta: #9 over #7, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #1 over #6 ($1 straight; box #1-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #6, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.36 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
85Scripted Love15/1—8.7%+38.7%0.65%$0.65
32Senor Justice ⚠ low confidence / high risk (maiden, 20-1 or longer)25/1—4.9%+27.7%0.28%$0.28
63Tiznot ⚠ low confidence / high risk (maiden, 20-1 or longer)20/1—6.1%+26.8%0.34%$0.34
510Sheshois20/1—6.0%+25.5%0.32%$0.32
49Hot Dawg ⚠ low confidence / high risk (maiden, 20-1 or longer)30/1—4.0%+22.5%0.19%$0.19
811Royal Tiara ⚠ low confidence / high risk (maiden, 20-1 or longer)20/1—5.6%+16.4%0.20%$0.20
89Rub It In Reba ⚠ low confidence / high risk (maiden, 20-1 or longer)30/1—3.7%+14.0%0.12%$0.12
53Timeless Justice25/1—4.3%+12.3%0.12%$0.12
TOTAL across 8 plays:2.2%$2.21
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:7Gettysburg Address (4/1)
Place:11Coach Knight (3/1)
Show:6Speed Bias (3/1)
Other contenders:1Montauk Point (6/1), 2Scenic Justice (15/1), 4Just Like Max (9/2), 5Mansfield Tiger (7/2)
Rest of field:9Cheesesteak (8/1), 3Moonrise Drive (20/1), 10Cringe (25/1), 8Lavender Earl (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7296114
🎯 Longshots: 2611793548110
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #11, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:3Big Boy Thunder (5/2)
Place:4Thunder Appeal (2/1)
Show:2Mayweather (3/1)
Other contenders:1Final Countdown (6/1), 6Dark Bart (12/1)
Rest of field:5Mahmoud's Cloud (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 413265
🎯 Longshots: 432156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:3Powerful Justice (4/5)
Place:4Lil Chance (7/2)
Show:6Leo's Beetle Bomb (5/1)
Other contenders:1Mountain Mike (12/1), 7Box (15/1), 2Senor Justice (25/1)
Rest of field:8Reachin Out (20/1), 5Starspangled Louie (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 346187
🎯 Longshots: 31486275
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440
Win:4Boss Lady Kar (5/1)
Place:5Ignoring Alana (4/1)
Show:2Omi Maria (3/1)
Other contenders:3Zarzuela (10/1), 1Quaintrelle (8/1), 13Maid Of Steel (4/1), 8Dart To Nabers (8/1)
Rest of field:11K P Kween (30/1), 14Beetwood Mac (10/1), 10Seismic Shift (6/1), 7Sea Oats (15/1), 6Deseray (15/1), 9Hot Dawg (30/1), 12Eyael (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1114523
🎯 Longshots: 2134149126115871310
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:5Jordans Deal (6/1)
Place:1Lucky N Good (4/1)
Show:7Our Lady Donna D (7/2)
Other contenders:11Pernicious (8/1), 2Aunt Leila's Sky (10/1), 6Loveitorleaveit (12/1), 9Sound The Siren (5/1)
Rest of field:10Sheshois (20/1), 4Miss Candy Pop (12/1), 3Timeless Justice (25/1), 8Sassy Julia (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5912711
🎯 Longshots: 2511134106798
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #7, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:1My Awesome Gold (12/1)
Place:8Practical Rose (7/2)
Show:5Kendom (5/1)
Other contenders:7George Of Will (9/2), 10Martone (5/1), 2Big Caslon (10/1), 6Captivate (6/1)
Rest of field:11Thousand Byus (12/1), 3Tiznot (20/1), 9Cornbred (30/1), 4Inthebudget (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8571026
🎯 Longshots: 8711532491106
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:9No Ceiling (7/2)
Place:7Hoosier Surprise (2/1)
Show:1Red Clay Halo (9/2)
Other contenders:5Sovereign Stride (10/1), 4Isometric (8/1), 8Can't Fool April (10/1)
Rest of field:6Secrets Out (8/1), 10Bertie's World (30/1), 2Hoo's A Good Girl (20/1), 3Gios Gorgeous Girl (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 791548
🎯 Longshots: 47196810325
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #7, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:3Whakaari (3/1)
Place:1Amy El (5/2)
Show:2Once More (5/1)
Other contenders:6Wealth N Taste (5/1), 8Obvious Agenda (6/1), 5Scripted Love (15/1), 11Royal Tiara (20/1)
Rest of field:4Apple Biscuit (25/1), 10Jiddy Go (25/1), 9Rub It In Reba (30/1), 7Cherry Pink (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3211168
🎯 Longshots: 6531941082117
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:6Speed Bias (3/1)
Place:7Gettysburg Address (4/1)
Show:1Montauk Point (6/1)
Other contenders:11Coach Knight (3/1), 5Mansfield Tiger (7/2), 4Just Like Max (9/2), 2Scenic Justice (15/1)
Rest of field:9Cheesesteak (8/1), 3Moonrise Drive (20/1), 8Lavender Earl (30/1), 10Cringe (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7623911
🎯 Longshots: 2611793548110
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #1, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:3Big Boy Thunder (5/2)
Place:4Thunder Appeal (2/1)
Show:2Mayweather (3/1)
Other contenders:1Final Countdown (6/1), 6Dark Bart (12/1)
Rest of field:5Mahmoud's Cloud (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 413265
🎯 Longshots: 432156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,500
Win:3Powerful Justice (4/5)
Place:4Lil Chance (7/2)
Show:6Leo's Beetle Bomb (5/1)
Other contenders:1Mountain Mike (12/1), 8Reachin Out (20/1), 2Senor Justice (25/1)
Rest of field:7Box (15/1), 5Starspangled Louie (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 346812
🎯 Longshots: 31486275
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $39,440
Win:2Omi Maria (3/1)
Place:4Boss Lady Kar (5/1)
Show:1Quaintrelle (8/1)
Other contenders:5Ignoring Alana (4/1), 3Zarzuela (10/1), 8Dart To Nabers (8/1), 14Beetwood Mac (10/1)
Rest of field:9Hot Dawg (30/1), 10Seismic Shift (6/1), 6Deseray (15/1), 7Sea Oats (15/1), 11K P Kween (30/1), 13Maid Of Steel (4/1), 12Eyael (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1112453
🎯 Longshots: 2134149126115871310
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:5Jordans Deal (6/1)
Place:1Lucky N Good (4/1)
Show:9Sound The Siren (5/1)
Other contenders:2Aunt Leila's Sky (10/1), 7Our Lady Donna D (7/2), 11Pernicious (8/1), 6Loveitorleaveit (12/1)
Rest of field:4Miss Candy Pop (12/1), 10Sheshois (20/1), 3Timeless Justice (25/1), 8Sassy Julia (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9215711
🎯 Longshots: 2511134106798
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $43,520
Win:7George Of Will (9/2)
Place:1My Awesome Gold (12/1)
Show:11Thousand Byus (12/1)
Other contenders:8Practical Rose (7/2), 5Kendom (5/1), 2Big Caslon (10/1), 3Tiznot (20/1)
Rest of field:4Inthebudget (25/1), 9Cornbred (30/1), 10Martone (5/1), 6Captivate (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7118523
🎯 Longshots: 8711532491106
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #11, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:9No Ceiling (7/2)
Place:7Hoosier Surprise (2/1)
Show:1Red Clay Halo (9/2)
Other contenders:4Isometric (8/1), 8Can't Fool April (10/1), 6Secrets Out (8/1)
Rest of field:5Sovereign Stride (10/1), 10Bertie's World (30/1), 2Hoo's A Good Girl (20/1), 3Gios Gorgeous Girl (25/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 791486
🎯 Longshots: 47196810325
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #7, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:1Amy El (5/2)
Place:2Once More (5/1)
Show:6Wealth N Taste (5/1)
Other contenders:3Whakaari (3/1), 8Obvious Agenda (6/1), 5Scripted Love (15/1), 11Royal Tiara (20/1)
Rest of field:4Apple Biscuit (25/1), 10Jiddy Go (25/1), 9Rub It In Reba (30/1), 7Cherry Pink (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2131168
🎯 Longshots: 6531941082117
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #11,#6,#5 (52%) / R2: #4,#3 (64%) / R3: #3,#4 (76%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #4,#3 (64%) / R3: #3,#4 (76%) / R4: #13,#2,#4 (43%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #3,#4 (76%) / R4: #13,#2,#4 (43%) / R5: #1,#7,#5 (57%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 18%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #7,#8,#5 (54%) / R7: #7,#9,#1 (64%) / R8: #1,#3,#8 (59%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 20%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #11,#6,#5 (52%) / R2: #4,#3 (64%) / R3: #3,#4 (76%) / R4: #13,#2,#4 (43%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 11%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #4,#3 (64%) / R3: #3,#4 (76%) / R4: #13,#2,#4 (43%) / R5: #1,#7,#5 (57%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 12%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
AMY ELAP VALIANT PRINCESSAPH BATTLE CAPTAINAPPLE BISCUITAUNT LEILA'S SKY
BERTIE'S WORLDBIG BOY THUNDERBIG CASLONBOSS LADY KARBOX
CAPTIVATECATCH HER LEGACYCHEESESTEAKCHERRY PINKCOACH KNIGHT
CRINGEDARK BARTDART TO NABERSDESERAYEOS RUNNING ROXIE
FA LILLYS OF WINSFINAL COUNTDOWNGEORGE OF WILLGETTYSBURG ADDRESSGIGIS TOP SECRET
HOO'S A GOOD GIRLHOOSIER SURPRISEHOT DAWGIGNORING ALANAINTHEBUDGET
ISOMETRICJIDDY GOJORDANS DEALJUST LIKE MAXK P KWEEN
LAVENDER EARLLB VEGAS TRAINLEO'S BEETLE BOMBLIL CHANCELOVEITORLEAVEIT
MAHMOUD'S CLOUDMAID OF STEELMANSFIELD TIGERMARTONEMAYWEATHER
MISS KTB 23MONTAUK POINTMOONRISE DRIVEMOUNTAIN MIKEMY AWESOME GOLD
OBVIOUS AGENDAOMI MARIAONCE MOREOUR LADY DONNA DPERNICIOUS
PRACTICAL ROSEQUAINTRELLEREACHIN OUTRED CLAY HALOROYAL TIARA
S PREDESTINADOSASSY JULIASCENIC JUSTICESCRIPTED LOVESEA OATS
SEISMIC SHIFTSEIZEDBYMARIELAVEAUSENOR JUSTICESHES DATAS CHOICESHESHOIS
SOVEREIGN STRIDESPEED BIASSTARSPANGLED LOUIETHOUSAND BYUSTHUNDER APPEAL
TIZNOTWEALTH N TASTEWHAKAARIWINNIE THE MINNIEZARZUELA

 


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback