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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Keeneland Race Course, October 30, 2026

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AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied

Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. In maiden races, where late money has the best record, Algo 2's morning pick follows the live betting favourite once the pool is open. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.

TrackRaceModelNew Top PickWhy
KEE5Model Algo 1#11 – Mccoy4 scratch(es)
KEE5Model Weight set 2#11 – Mccoy4 scratch(es)
KEE5Model Weight set 3#11 – Mccoy4 scratch(es)

Plays voided by scratches — these published value plays are officially scratched; win bets on them are refunds, so strike them from your card:

Where the experts back our strongest pick today

In 4 of today's 10 races, the published handicappers landed on the same horse as Algo 2, our best-performing model. Over the last 90 days (3,707 graded races), the races where they agreed won 38.6% of the time against 30.3% where they did not.

Today's agreement races — KEE 4, 6, 7, 9.

Which horse the two agree on is part of Algo 2, included with Insider and above. The race numbers above are free to everyone: if you are playing these races, you now know the experts and our strongest model are pointing the same way.


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Keeneland Race Course — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 127 graded races at Keeneland Race Course, 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-24.

0%10%20%30%40%Our top pick: 32.3% from 127 racesOur top pick32.3%Morning-line favourite: 28.3% from 127 racesMorning-line favourite28.3%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick32.3%127
Morning-line favourite28.3%127
 
Race 1  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $175,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Emerging Market (6/5)
Place:6Memory (4/1)
Show:2Stowaway (6/1)
Other contenders:5Admiral Dennis (5/1), 3Gould's Gold (6/1), 7Special Session (12/1)
Rest of field:8Azam (15/1), 4Drake's Passage (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 162537
🎯 Longshots: 16723584
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $150,000
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Niosa (2/1)
Place:9Groves (4/1)
Show:4Forgive Me (6/1)
Other contenders:3Honor Is Mine (9/2), 1Ohana Lulu (8/1), 7Maitresse (10/1)
Rest of field:8Holiday Pi (15/1), 2Golden Reveille (20/1), 5At Full Sail (15/1), 10Maximum Capital (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 693417
🎯 Longshots: 63941785210
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #9, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $250,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Real Goodbar (9/2)
Place:8Roscoe Goose (6/1)
Show:16Up Before The Dawn (6/1)
Other contenders:2Canada (6/1), 1Maxify (8/1), 13Not For Long (8/1), 12Mid American (12/1), 7Oscar Cheer (12/1)
Rest of field:6Majik Mooney (10/1), 4Observed (8/1), 10Coast Highway (10/1), 11Admiral's Order (15/1), 5Nuit D'eclair (6/1), 15Okarito (30/1), 9Dee's Funny Girl (12/1), 14That's Fire (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 38162113
🎯 Longshots: 81331104166271251191514
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #16, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $165,000
Win:10Campobasso (2/1)
Place:7Cornwall Boss (3/1)
Show:6Global Aviator (5/1)
Other contenders:4Ghazaaly (6/1), 2Lincoln's Law (12/1), 5Send Cash (15/1)
Rest of field:1High Camp (8/1), 3Bob's Carrot (15/1), 8Imagine John (20/1), 9Big Apple Patrick (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1076412
🎯 Longshots: 10726513489
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #7, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $165,000
Win:11Mccoy (7/2)
Place:1Yacht Master (4/1)
Show:8Mission Integrity (9/2)
Other contenders:2Kingside (9/2), 10Dormie (10/1), 5Merit Badge (10/1), 9Take A Picture (10/1)
Rest of field:7Fusta (12/1), 6Sargent Bilko (20/1), 3Bet On Silver (12/1), 4Spicy Taco (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 11182105
🎯 Longshots: 1112810569374
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #1, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
Win:4Brickyard Belle (3/1)
Place:3Libertango (5/2)
Show:10Harper's Corner (8/1)
Other contenders:13Ruiva (12/1), 2Good To Be King (12/1), 14Wood Island (15/1), 15Adonius (12/1), 8Force Noir (8/1)
Rest of field:17Fanshell Beach (30/1), 16Love A Warrior (30/1), 9Final Objective (8/1), 12Primetime Emmy (15/1), 11Hell Of A Spin (15/1), 5Mussab (15/1), 6Velozee (20/1), 1Moonrise (12/1), 7Crownbreaker (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 431013214
🎯 Longshots: 4108213314961551127171611
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #10, #13  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:10Emphatic (9/5)
Place:5Miss Monica (5/2)
Show:8Manuka Honey (10/1)
Other contenders:2Domain Expansion (6/1), 1Scarlett Begonia (20/1), 11Voyager (12/1), 7Lexi's Charm (15/1)
Rest of field:3Foxiest (15/1), 4Rum Twist (15/1), 6Revenge Of The Sis (20/1), 12Life Changing (30/1), 9Badittude (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 10528111
🎯 Longshots: 105821171436912
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #5, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:12Domestic Agenda (8/1)
Place:9Sun Goddess (6/5)
Show:10Amusingly (7/2)
Other contenders:8Citrus Springs (15/1), 7Vanta (20/1), 5De La Renta (30/1), 2Go For Launch (30/1), 4Serenas Ghost (20/1)
Rest of field:13Seneca Park (30/1), 3Curracloe (12/1), 1Green Empress (10/1), 16Luminous Beauty (30/1), 17Quibbler (30/1), 15Silent Beauty (30/1), 14Ballinea Star (30/1), 6Alwaysanangel (15/1), 11Scommessa Sicura (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 91210873
🎯 Longshots: 1912108376254171316141115
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #9, #10, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Hughes (1/1)
Place:6American History (9/2)
Show:7Coach Pope (4/1)
Other contenders:3Salahudin (6/1), 2Gaudreau (8/1), 8He Is No Lie (15/1)
Rest of field:1Damavand (20/1), 4Earth Song (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 576328
🎯 Longshots: 57623814
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5How's Al Today (3/1)
Place:13Agate (10/1)
Show:10Folsom Blues (7/2)
Other contenders:12Oscar (15/1), 14Great Barrier Reef (4/1), 7Let Em Know (20/1), 8Liam's Law (20/1), 15Popcorn (20/1)
Rest of field:4Haffner (8/1), 1Induction (30/1), 2Avec Toi (10/1), 11Man's Best Friend (15/1), 3Florida Bay (20/1), 9Sale Shark (30/1), 6Pikachu (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5101413127
🎯 Longshots: 510427613128311115149
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #13, #10, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Keeneland Race Course — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 126 graded races at Keeneland Race Course, 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-24.

0%11%22%33%44%Our top pick: 34.9% from 126 racesOur top pick34.9%Morning-line favourite: 27.8% from 126 racesMorning-line favourite27.8%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick34.9%126
Morning-line favourite27.8%126
 
Race 1  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $175,000
Win:1Emerging Market (6/5) 36% · fair 2-1 underlay -33%
Place:2Stowaway (6/1) 18% · fair 9-2 overlay +34%
Show:6Memory (4/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -33%
Other contenders:5Admiral Dennis (5/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -36%, 3Gould's Gold (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -26%, 7Special Session (12/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -33%
Rest of field:8Azam (15/1) 3% · fair 73-2 underlay -59%, 4Drake's Passage (30/1) 1% · fair 151-2 underlay -60%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Emerging Market — 35.8% win probability, morning line 1.2/1Emerging Market35.8% ◀Stowaway — 18.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Stowaway18.3%Memory — 14.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Memory14.3%Admiral Dennis — 11.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Admiral Dennis11.4%Gould'S Gold — 11.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Gould'S Gold11.0%Special Session — 5.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Special Session5.3%Azam — 2.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Azam2.7%Drake'S Passage — 1.3% win probability, morning line 30/1Drake'S Passage1.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Emerging Market35.8%1.2/1
Stowaway18.3%6/1
Memory14.3%4/1
Admiral Dennis11.4%5/1
Gould'S Gold11.0%6/1
Special Session5.3%12/1
Azam2.7%15/1
Drake'S Passage1.3%30/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherEmerging Market: model 35.8% vs market 35.6% (+0.3 points)Emerging Market+0.3Stowaway: model 18.3% vs market 11.2% (+7.1 points)Stowaway+7.1Memory: model 14.3% vs market 15.6% (-1.4 points)Memory-1.4Admiral Dennis: model 11.4% vs market 13.0% (-1.7 points)Admiral Dennis-1.7Gould'S Gold: model 11.0% vs market 11.2% (-0.2 points)Gould'S Gold-0.2Special Session: model 5.3% vs market 6.0% (-0.7 points)Special Session-0.7Azam: model 2.7% vs market 4.9% (-2.2 points)Azam-2.2Drake'S Passage: model 1.3% vs market 2.5% (-1.2 points)Drake'S Passage-1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Emerging Market35.8%35.6%+0.3
Stowaway18.3%11.2%+7.1
Memory14.3%15.6%-1.4
Admiral Dennis11.4%13.0%-1.7
Gould'S Gold11.0%11.2%-0.2
Special Session5.3%6.0%-0.7
Azam2.7%4.9%-2.2
Drake'S Passage1.3%2.5%-1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 162537
🎯 Longshots: 16723584
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $150,000
Win:6Niosa (2/1) 45% · fair 1-1 overlay +62%
Place:9Groves (4/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:4Forgive Me (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:1Ohana Lulu (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 3Honor Is Mine (9/2) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -69%, 7Maitresse (10/1) 3% · fair 65-2 underlay -69%
Rest of field:2Golden Reveille (20/1) 2% · fair 58-1 underlay -65%, 8Holiday Pi (15/1) 1% · fair 145-2 underlay -79%, 5At Full Sail (15/1) 1% · fair 207-2 underlay -86%, 10Maximum Capital (20/1) 1% · fair 130-1 underlay -85%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Niosa — 44.8% win probability, morning line 2/1Niosa44.8% ◀Groves — 20.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Groves20.4%Forgive Me — 11.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Forgive Me11.9%Ohana Lulu — 8.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Ohana Lulu8.6%Honor Is Mine — 6.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Honor Is Mine6.5%Maitresse — 3.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Maitresse3.0%Golden Reveille — 1.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Golden Reveille1.7%Holiday Pi — 1.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Holiday Pi1.4%At Full Sail — 1.0% win probability, morning line 15/1At Full Sail1.0%Maximum Capital — 0.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Maximum Capital0.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Niosa44.8%2/1
Groves20.4%4/1
Forgive Me11.9%6/1
Ohana Lulu8.6%8/1
Honor Is Mine6.5%4.5/1
Maitresse3.0%10/1
Golden Reveille1.7%20/1
Holiday Pi1.4%15/1
At Full Sail1.0%15/1
Maximum Capital0.8%20/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherNiosa: model 44.8% vs market 26.0% (+18.7 points)Niosa+18.7Groves: model 20.4% vs market 15.6% (+4.8 points)Groves+4.8Forgive Me: model 11.9% vs market 11.2% (+0.8 points)Forgive Me+0.8Ohana Lulu: model 8.6% vs market 8.7% (-0.1 points)Ohana Lulu-0.1Honor Is Mine: model 6.5% vs market 14.2% (-7.7 points)Honor Is Mine-7.7Maitresse: model 3.0% vs market 7.1% (-4.1 points)Maitresse-4.1Golden Reveille: model 1.7% vs market 3.7% (-2.0 points)Golden Reveille-2.0Holiday Pi: model 1.4% vs market 4.9% (-3.5 points)Holiday Pi-3.5At Full Sail: model 1.0% vs market 4.9% (-3.9 points)At Full Sail-3.9Maximum Capital: model 0.8% vs market 3.7% (-3.0 points)Maximum Capital-3.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Niosa44.8%26.0%+18.7
Groves20.4%15.6%+4.8
Forgive Me11.9%11.2%+0.8
Ohana Lulu8.6%8.7%-0.1
Honor Is Mine6.5%14.2%-7.7
Maitresse3.0%7.1%-4.1
Golden Reveille1.7%3.7%-2.0
Holiday Pi1.4%4.9%-3.5
At Full Sail1.0%4.9%-3.9
Maximum Capital0.8%3.7%-3.0
🌧️ Off-track: 693417
🎯 Longshots: 63941785210
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #9, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $250,000
Win:3Real Goodbar (9/2) 15% · fair 11-2
Place:16Up Before The Dawn (6/1) 14% · fair 13-2
Show:8Roscoe Goose (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1
Other contenders:2Canada (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -34%, 1Maxify (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -37%, 12Mid American (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 13Not For Long (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -43%, 6Majik Mooney (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -36%
Rest of field:7Oscar Cheer (12/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -25%, 4Observed (8/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -55%, 10Coast Highway (10/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -53%, 11Admiral's Order (15/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -36%, 15Okarito (30/1) 2% · fair 121-2 underlay -50%, 14That's Fire (30/1) 1% · fair 159-2 underlay -62%, 9Dee's Funny Girl (12/1) 0% · fair 531-2 underlay -95%, 5Nuit D'eclair (6/1) 0% · fair 603-2 underlay -98%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Real Goodbar — 15.0% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Real Goodbar15.0% ◀Up Before The Dawn — 13.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Up Before The Dawn13.7%Roscoe Goose — 11.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Roscoe Goose11.3%Canada — 9.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Canada9.9%Maxify — 7.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Maxify7.3%Mid American — 6.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Mid American6.8%Not For Long — 6.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Not For Long6.7%Majik Mooney — 6.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Majik Mooney6.0%Oscar Cheer — 5.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Oscar Cheer5.9%Observed — 5.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Observed5.3%Coast Highway — 4.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Coast Highway4.5%Admiral'S Order — 4.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Admiral'S Order4.1%Okarito — 1.6% win probability, morning line 30/1Okarito1.6%That'S Fire — 1.2% win probability, morning line 30/1That'S Fire1.2%Dee'S Funny Girl — 0.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Dee'S Funny Girl0.4%Nuit D'Eclair — 0.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Nuit D'Eclair0.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Real Goodbar15.0%4.5/1
Up Before The Dawn13.7%6/1
Roscoe Goose11.3%6/1
Canada9.9%6/1
Maxify7.3%8/1
Mid American6.8%12/1
Not For Long6.7%8/1
Majik Mooney6.0%10/1
Oscar Cheer5.9%12/1
Observed5.3%8/1
Coast Highway4.5%10/1
Admiral'S Order4.1%15/1
Okarito1.6%30/1
That'S Fire1.2%30/1
Dee'S Funny Girl0.4%12/1
Nuit D'Eclair0.3%6/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherReal Goodbar: model 15.0% vs market 11.2% (+3.8 points)Real Goodbar+3.8Up Before The Dawn: model 13.7% vs market 8.8% (+4.9 points)Up Before The Dawn+4.9Roscoe Goose: model 11.3% vs market 8.8% (+2.5 points)Roscoe Goose+2.5Canada: model 9.9% vs market 8.8% (+1.1 points)Canada+1.1Maxify: model 7.3% vs market 6.8% (+0.5 points)Maxify+0.5Mid American: model 6.8% vs market 4.7% (+2.1 points)Mid American+2.1Not For Long: model 6.7% vs market 6.8% (-0.2 points)Not For Long-0.2Majik Mooney: model 6.0% vs market 5.6% (+0.4 points)Majik Mooney+0.4Oscar Cheer: model 5.9% vs market 4.7% (+1.1 points)Oscar Cheer+1.1Observed: model 5.3% vs market 6.8% (-1.5 points)Observed-1.5Coast Highway: model 4.5% vs market 5.6% (-1.1 points)Coast Highway-1.1Admiral'S Order: model 4.1% vs market 3.8% (+0.3 points)Admiral'S Order+0.3Okarito: model 1.6% vs market 2.0% (-0.4 points)Okarito-0.4That'S Fire: model 1.2% vs market 2.0% (-0.7 points)That'S Fire-0.7Dee'S Funny Girl: model 0.4% vs market 4.7% (-4.4 points)Dee'S Funny Girl-4.4Nuit D'Eclair: model 0.3% vs market 8.8% (-8.5 points)Nuit D'Eclair-8.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Real Goodbar15.0%11.2%+3.8
Up Before The Dawn13.7%8.8%+4.9
Roscoe Goose11.3%8.8%+2.5
Canada9.9%8.8%+1.1
Maxify7.3%6.8%+0.5
Mid American6.8%4.7%+2.1
Not For Long6.7%6.8%-0.2
Majik Mooney6.0%5.6%+0.4
Oscar Cheer5.9%4.7%+1.1
Observed5.3%6.8%-1.5
Coast Highway4.5%5.6%-1.1
Admiral'S Order4.1%3.8%+0.3
Okarito1.6%2.0%-0.4
That'S Fire1.2%2.0%-0.7
Dee'S Funny Girl0.4%4.7%-4.4
Nuit D'Eclair0.3%8.8%-8.5
🌧️ Off-track: 31682113
🎯 Longshots: 81331104166271251191514
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #16, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $165,000
Win:10Campobasso (2/1) 47% · fair 1-1 overlay +78%
Place:7Cornwall Boss (3/1) 21% · fair 4-1
Show:6Global Aviator (5/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -60%
Other contenders:4Ghazaaly (6/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -62%, 1High Camp (8/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -66%, 2Lincoln's Law (12/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -50%
Rest of field:5Send Cash (15/1) 3% · fair 28-1 underlay -46%, 3Bob's Carrot (15/1) 3% · fair 63-2 underlay -52%, 8Imagine John (20/1) 3% · fair 34-1 underlay -41%, 9Big Apple Patrick (20/1) 1% · fair 167-2 underlay -76%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Campobasso — 47.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Campobasso47.1% ◀Cornwall Boss — 21.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Cornwall Boss21.0%Global Aviator — 7.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Global Aviator7.3%Ghazaaly — 5.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Ghazaaly5.9%High Camp — 4.1% win probability, morning line 8/1High Camp4.1%Lincoln'S Law — 4.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Lincoln'S Law4.0%Send Cash — 3.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Send Cash3.5%Bob'S Carrot — 3.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Bob'S Carrot3.1%Imagine John — 2.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Imagine John2.9%Big Apple Patrick — 1.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Big Apple Patrick1.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Campobasso47.1%2/1
Cornwall Boss21.0%3/1
Global Aviator7.3%5/1
Ghazaaly5.9%6/1
High Camp4.1%8/1
Lincoln'S Law4.0%12/1
Send Cash3.5%15/1
Bob'S Carrot3.1%15/1
Imagine John2.9%20/1
Big Apple Patrick1.2%20/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCampobasso: model 47.1% vs market 25.6% (+21.5 points)Campobasso+21.5Cornwall Boss: model 21.0% vs market 19.2% (+1.7 points)Cornwall Boss+1.7Global Aviator: model 7.3% vs market 12.8% (-5.5 points)Global Aviator-5.5Ghazaaly: model 5.9% vs market 11.0% (-5.0 points)Ghazaaly-5.0High Camp: model 4.1% vs market 8.5% (-4.5 points)High Camp-4.5Lincoln'S Law: model 4.0% vs market 5.9% (-1.9 points)Lincoln'S Law-1.9Send Cash: model 3.5% vs market 4.8% (-1.4 points)Send Cash-1.4Bob'S Carrot: model 3.1% vs market 4.8% (-1.7 points)Bob'S Carrot-1.7Imagine John: model 2.9% vs market 3.7% (-0.8 points)Imagine John-0.8Big Apple Patrick: model 1.2% vs market 3.7% (-2.5 points)Big Apple Patrick-2.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Campobasso47.1%25.6%+21.5
Cornwall Boss21.0%19.2%+1.7
Global Aviator7.3%12.8%-5.5
Ghazaaly5.9%11.0%-5.0
High Camp4.1%8.5%-4.5
Lincoln'S Law4.0%5.9%-1.9
Send Cash3.5%4.8%-1.4
Bob'S Carrot3.1%4.8%-1.7
Imagine John2.9%3.7%-0.8
Big Apple Patrick1.2%3.7%-2.5
🌧️ Off-track: 1076412
🎯 Longshots: 10726513489
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #7, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $165,000
Win:11Mccoy (7/2) 29% · fair 5-2 overlay +46%
Place:1Yacht Master (4/1) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:8Mission Integrity (9/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -26%
Other contenders:2Kingside (9/2) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -56%, 5Merit Badge (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -25%, 10Dormie (10/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -39%, 9Take A Picture (10/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -44%
Rest of field:3Bet On Silver (12/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -49%, 6Sargent Bilko (20/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -34%, 7Fusta (12/1) 3% · fair 63-2 underlay -62%, 4Spicy Taco (30/1) 1% · fair 108-1 underlay -72%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Mccoy — 29.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Mccoy29.4% ◀Yacht Master — 18.2% win probability, morning line 4/1Yacht Master18.2%Mission Integrity — 14.2% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Mission Integrity14.2%Kingside — 9.0% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Kingside9.0%Merit Badge — 7.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Merit Badge7.0%Dormie — 5.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Dormie5.7%Take A Picture — 5.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Take A Picture5.3%Bet On Silver — 4.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Bet On Silver4.1%Sargent Bilko — 3.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Sargent Bilko3.2%Fusta — 3.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Fusta3.1%Spicy Taco — 0.9% win probability, morning line 30/1Spicy Taco0.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Mccoy29.4%3.5/1
Yacht Master18.2%4/1
Mission Integrity14.2%4.5/1
Kingside9.0%4.5/1
Merit Badge7.0%10/1
Dormie5.7%10/1
Take A Picture5.3%10/1
Bet On Silver4.1%12/1
Sargent Bilko3.2%20/1
Fusta3.1%12/1
Spicy Taco0.9%30/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMccoy: model 29.4% vs market 17.2% (+12.2 points)Mccoy+12.2Yacht Master: model 18.2% vs market 15.5% (+2.7 points)Yacht Master+2.7Mission Integrity: model 14.2% vs market 14.1% (+0.1 points)Mission Integrity+0.1Kingside: model 9.0% vs market 14.1% (-5.1 points)Kingside-5.1Merit Badge: model 7.0% vs market 7.0% (-0.1 points)Merit Badge-0.1Dormie: model 5.7% vs market 7.0% (-1.3 points)Dormie-1.3Take A Picture: model 5.3% vs market 7.0% (-1.7 points)Take A Picture-1.7Bet On Silver: model 4.1% vs market 6.0% (-1.9 points)Bet On Silver-1.9Sargent Bilko: model 3.2% vs market 3.7% (-0.5 points)Sargent Bilko-0.5Fusta: model 3.1% vs market 6.0% (-2.9 points)Fusta-2.9Spicy Taco: model 0.9% vs market 2.5% (-1.6 points)Spicy Taco-1.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Mccoy29.4%17.2%+12.2
Yacht Master18.2%15.5%+2.7
Mission Integrity14.2%14.1%+0.1
Kingside9.0%14.1%-5.1
Merit Badge7.0%7.0%-0.1
Dormie5.7%7.0%-1.3
Take A Picture5.3%7.0%-1.7
Bet On Silver4.1%6.0%-1.9
Sargent Bilko3.2%3.7%-0.5
Fusta3.1%6.0%-2.9
Spicy Taco0.9%2.5%-1.6
🌧️ Off-track: 11182510
🎯 Longshots: 1112810569374
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #1, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:4Brickyard Belle (3/1) 38% · fair 3-2 overlay +83%
Place:10Harper's Corner (8/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Show:13Ruiva (12/1) 11% · fair 8-1 overlay +49%
Other contenders:2Good To Be King (12/1) 8% · fair 11-1, 3Libertango (5/2) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -78%, 15Adonius (12/1) 7% · fair 14-1, 14Wood Island (15/1) 6% · fair 15-1, 17Fanshell Beach (30/1) 3% · fair 33-1
Rest of field:16Love A Warrior (30/1) 3% · fair 77-2, 1Moonrise (12/1) 1% · fair 221-2 underlay -89%, 9Final Objective (8/1) 1% · fair 373-2 underlay -96%, 8Force Noir (8/1) 0% · fair 225-1 underlay -96%, 12Primetime Emmy (15/1) 0% · fair 491-2 underlay -94%, 6Velozee (20/1) 0% · fair 583-1 underlay -97%, 7Crownbreaker (20/1) 0% · fair 859-1 underlay -98%, 5Mussab (15/1) 0% · fair 899-1 underlay -98%, 11Hell Of A Spin (15/1) 0% · fair 1003-1 underlay -99%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Brickyard Belle — 37.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Brickyard Belle37.9% ◀Harper'S Corner — 13.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Harper'S Corner13.1%Ruiva — 11.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Ruiva11.1%Good To Be King — 8.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Good To Be King8.5%Libertango — 8.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Libertango8.2%Adonius — 6.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Adonius6.7%Wood Island — 6.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Wood Island6.3%Fanshell Beach — 3.0% win probability, morning line 30/1Fanshell Beach3.0%Love A Warrior — 2.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Love A Warrior2.5%Moonrise — 0.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Moonrise0.9%Final Objective — 0.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Final Objective0.5%Force Noir — 0.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Force Noir0.4%Primetime Emmy — 0.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Primetime Emmy0.4%Velozee — 0.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Velozee0.2%Crownbreaker — 0.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Crownbreaker0.1%Mussab — 0.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Mussab0.1%Hell Of A Spin — 0.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Hell Of A Spin0.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Brickyard Belle37.9%3/1
Harper'S Corner13.1%8/1
Ruiva11.1%12/1
Good To Be King8.5%12/1
Libertango8.2%2.5/1
Adonius6.7%12/1
Wood Island6.3%15/1
Fanshell Beach3.0%30/1
Love A Warrior2.5%30/1
Moonrise0.9%12/1
Final Objective0.5%8/1
Force Noir0.4%8/1
Primetime Emmy0.4%15/1
Velozee0.2%20/1
Crownbreaker0.1%20/1
Mussab0.1%15/1
Hell Of A Spin0.1%15/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBrickyard Belle: model 37.9% vs market 15.8% (+22.1 points)Brickyard Belle+22.1Harper'S Corner: model 13.1% vs market 7.0% (+6.0 points)Harper'S Corner+6.0Ruiva: model 11.1% vs market 4.8% (+6.2 points)Ruiva+6.2Good To Be King: model 8.5% vs market 4.8% (+3.7 points)Good To Be King+3.7Libertango: model 8.2% vs market 18.0% (-9.8 points)Libertango-9.8Adonius: model 6.7% vs market 4.8% (+1.8 points)Adonius+1.8Wood Island: model 6.3% vs market 3.9% (+2.4 points)Wood Island+2.4Fanshell Beach: model 3.0% vs market 2.0% (+0.9 points)Fanshell Beach+0.9Love A Warrior: model 2.5% vs market 2.0% (+0.5 points)Love A Warrior+0.5Moonrise: model 0.9% vs market 4.8% (-4.0 points)Moonrise-4.0Final Objective: model 0.5% vs market 7.0% (-6.5 points)Final Objective-6.5Force Noir: model 0.4% vs market 7.0% (-6.6 points)Force Noir-6.6Primetime Emmy: model 0.4% vs market 3.9% (-3.5 points)Primetime Emmy-3.5Velozee: model 0.2% vs market 3.0% (-2.8 points)Velozee-2.8Crownbreaker: model 0.1% vs market 3.0% (-2.9 points)Crownbreaker-2.9Mussab: model 0.1% vs market 3.9% (-3.8 points)Mussab-3.8Hell Of A Spin: model 0.1% vs market 3.9% (-3.8 points)Hell Of A Spin-3.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Brickyard Belle37.9%15.8%+22.1
Harper'S Corner13.1%7.0%+6.0
Ruiva11.1%4.8%+6.2
Good To Be King8.5%4.8%+3.7
Libertango8.2%18.0%-9.8
Adonius6.7%4.8%+1.8
Wood Island6.3%3.9%+2.4
Fanshell Beach3.0%2.0%+0.9
Love A Warrior2.5%2.0%+0.5
Moonrise0.9%4.8%-4.0
Final Objective0.5%7.0%-6.5
Force Noir0.4%7.0%-6.6
Primetime Emmy0.4%3.9%-3.5
Velozee0.2%3.0%-2.8
Crownbreaker0.1%3.0%-2.9
Mussab0.1%3.9%-3.8
Hell Of A Spin0.1%3.9%-3.8
🌧️ Off-track: 43101329
🎯 Longshots: 4108213314961551127171611
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #10, #13, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:5Miss Monica (5/2) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:10Emphatic (9/5) 29% · fair 5-2 underlay -25%
Show:8Manuka Honey (10/1) 11% · fair 8-1
Other contenders:2Domain Expansion (6/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -54%, 11Voyager (12/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -49%, 7Lexi's Charm (15/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -39%, 3Foxiest (15/1) 3% · fair 57-2 underlay -47%
Rest of field:1Scarlett Begonia (20/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -34%, 4Rum Twist (15/1) 3% · fair 71-2 underlay -58%, 6Revenge Of The Sis (20/1) 3% · fair 39-1 underlay -48%, 12Life Changing (30/1) 1% · fair 147-2 underlay -59%, 9Badittude (30/1) 1% · fair 97-1 underlay -69%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Miss Monica — 30.4% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Miss Monica30.4% ◀Emphatic — 29.4% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Emphatic29.4%Manuka Honey — 10.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Manuka Honey10.9%Domain Expansion — 7.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Domain Expansion7.1%Voyager — 4.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Voyager4.1%Lexi'S Charm — 3.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Lexi'S Charm3.9%Foxiest — 3.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Foxiest3.4%Scarlett Begonia — 3.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Scarlett Begonia3.2%Rum Twist — 2.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Rum Twist2.7%Revenge Of The Sis — 2.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Revenge Of The Sis2.5%Life Changing — 1.3% win probability, morning line 30/1Life Changing1.3%Badittude — 1.0% win probability, morning line 30/1Badittude1.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Miss Monica30.4%2.5/1
Emphatic29.4%1.8/1
Manuka Honey10.9%10/1
Domain Expansion7.1%6/1
Voyager4.1%12/1
Lexi'S Charm3.9%15/1
Foxiest3.4%15/1
Scarlett Begonia3.2%20/1
Rum Twist2.7%15/1
Revenge Of The Sis2.5%20/1
Life Changing1.3%30/1
Badittude1.0%30/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMiss Monica: model 30.4% vs market 22.0% (+8.4 points)Miss Monica+8.4Emphatic: model 29.4% vs market 27.5% (+1.9 points)Emphatic+1.9Manuka Honey: model 10.9% vs market 7.0% (+3.9 points)Manuka Honey+3.9Domain Expansion: model 7.1% vs market 11.0% (-3.9 points)Domain Expansion-3.9Voyager: model 4.1% vs market 5.9% (-1.8 points)Voyager-1.8Lexi'S Charm: model 3.9% vs market 4.8% (-0.9 points)Lexi'S Charm-0.9Foxiest: model 3.4% vs market 4.8% (-1.4 points)Foxiest-1.4Scarlett Begonia: model 3.2% vs market 3.7% (-0.5 points)Scarlett Begonia-0.5Rum Twist: model 2.7% vs market 4.8% (-2.1 points)Rum Twist-2.1Revenge Of The Sis: model 2.5% vs market 3.7% (-1.1 points)Revenge Of The Sis-1.1Life Changing: model 1.3% vs market 2.5% (-1.1 points)Life Changing-1.1Badittude: model 1.0% vs market 2.5% (-1.5 points)Badittude-1.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Miss Monica30.4%22.0%+8.4
Emphatic29.4%27.5%+1.9
Manuka Honey10.9%7.0%+3.9
Domain Expansion7.1%11.0%-3.9
Voyager4.1%5.9%-1.8
Lexi'S Charm3.9%4.8%-0.9
Foxiest3.4%4.8%-1.4
Scarlett Begonia3.2%3.7%-0.5
Rum Twist2.7%4.8%-2.1
Revenge Of The Sis2.5%3.7%-1.1
Life Changing1.3%2.5%-1.1
Badittude1.0%2.5%-1.5
🌧️ Off-track: 10528117
🎯 Longshots: 105821171436912
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #10, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:12Domestic Agenda (8/1) 29% · fair 5-2 overlay +231%
Place:8Citrus Springs (15/1) 10% · fair 17-2 overlay +76%
Show:10Amusingly (7/2) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -60%
Other contenders:9Sun Goddess (6/5) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -88%, 7Vanta (20/1) 9% · fair 21-2 overlay +92%, 5De La Renta (30/1) 7% · fair 27-2 overlay +123%, 4Serenas Ghost (20/1) 6% · fair 17-1, 13Seneca Park (30/1) 4% · fair 43-2 overlay +39%
Rest of field:2Go For Launch (30/1) 4% · fair 25-1, 16Luminous Beauty (30/1) 3% · fair 57-2, 17Quibbler (30/1) 3% · fair 61-2, 3Curracloe (12/1) 2% · fair 65-1 underlay -82%, 1Green Empress (10/1) 1% · fair 149-2 underlay -87%, 11Scommessa Sicura (30/1) 1% · fair 341-2 underlay -82%, 6Alwaysanangel (15/1) 1% · fair 179-1 underlay -92%, 14Ballinea Star (30/1) 0% · fair 361-1 underlay -92%, 15Silent Beauty (30/1) 0% · fair 562-1 underlay -95%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Domestic Agenda — 29.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Domestic Agenda29.2% ◀Citrus Springs — 10.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Citrus Springs10.5%Amusingly — 10.3% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Amusingly10.3%Sun Goddess — 9.4% win probability, morning line 1.2/1Sun Goddess9.4%Vanta — 8.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Vanta8.8%De La Renta — 6.9% win probability, morning line 30/1De La Renta6.9%Serenas Ghost — 5.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Serenas Ghost5.6%Seneca Park — 4.4% win probability, morning line 30/1Seneca Park4.4%Go For Launch — 3.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Go For Launch3.8%Luminous Beauty — 3.4% win probability, morning line 30/1Luminous Beauty3.4%Quibbler — 3.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Quibbler3.2%Curracloe — 1.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Curracloe1.5%Green Empress — 1.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Green Empress1.3%Scommessa Sicura — 0.6% win probability, morning line 30/1Scommessa Sicura0.6%Alwaysanangel — 0.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Alwaysanangel0.6%Ballinea Star — 0.3% win probability, morning line 30/1Ballinea Star0.3%Silent Beauty — 0.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Silent Beauty0.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Domestic Agenda29.2%8/1
Citrus Springs10.5%15/1
Amusingly10.3%3.5/1
Sun Goddess9.4%1.2/1
Vanta8.8%20/1
De La Renta6.9%30/1
Serenas Ghost5.6%20/1
Seneca Park4.4%30/1
Go For Launch3.8%30/1
Luminous Beauty3.4%30/1
Quibbler3.2%30/1
Curracloe1.5%12/1
Green Empress1.3%10/1
Scommessa Sicura0.6%30/1
Alwaysanangel0.6%15/1
Ballinea Star0.3%30/1
Silent Beauty0.2%30/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDomestic Agenda: model 29.2% vs market 7.7% (+21.5 points)Domestic Agenda+21.5Citrus Springs: model 10.5% vs market 4.4% (+6.1 points)Citrus Springs+6.1Amusingly: model 10.3% vs market 15.5% (-5.2 points)Amusingly-5.2Sun Goddess: model 9.4% vs market 31.7% (-22.3 points)Sun Goddess-22.3Vanta: model 8.8% vs market 3.3% (+5.4 points)Vanta+5.4De La Renta: model 6.9% vs market 2.2% (+4.7 points)De La Renta+4.7Serenas Ghost: model 5.6% vs market 3.3% (+2.3 points)Serenas Ghost+2.3Seneca Park: model 4.4% vs market 2.2% (+2.2 points)Seneca Park+2.2Go For Launch: model 3.8% vs market 2.2% (+1.6 points)Go For Launch+1.6Luminous Beauty: model 3.4% vs market 2.2% (+1.2 points)Luminous Beauty+1.2Quibbler: model 3.2% vs market 2.2% (+0.9 points)Quibbler+0.9Curracloe: model 1.5% vs market 5.4% (-3.9 points)Curracloe-3.9Green Empress: model 1.3% vs market 6.3% (-5.0 points)Green Empress-5.0Scommessa Sicura: model 0.6% vs market 2.2% (-1.7 points)Scommessa Sicura-1.7Alwaysanangel: model 0.6% vs market 4.4% (-3.8 points)Alwaysanangel-3.8Ballinea Star: model 0.3% vs market 2.2% (-2.0 points)Ballinea Star-2.0Silent Beauty: model 0.2% vs market 2.2% (-2.1 points)Silent Beauty-2.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Domestic Agenda29.2%7.7%+21.5
Citrus Springs10.5%4.4%+6.1
Amusingly10.3%15.5%-5.2
Sun Goddess9.4%31.7%-22.3
Vanta8.8%3.3%+5.4
De La Renta6.9%2.2%+4.7
Serenas Ghost5.6%3.3%+2.3
Seneca Park4.4%2.2%+2.2
Go For Launch3.8%2.2%+1.6
Luminous Beauty3.4%2.2%+1.2
Quibbler3.2%2.2%+0.9
Curracloe1.5%5.4%-3.9
Green Empress1.3%6.3%-5.0
Scommessa Sicura0.6%2.2%-1.7
Alwaysanangel0.6%4.4%-3.8
Ballinea Star0.3%2.2%-2.0
Silent Beauty0.2%2.2%-2.1
🌧️ Off-track: 12910817
🎯 Longshots: 1912108376254171316141115
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #8, #10, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:5Hughes (1/1) 45% · fair 1-1
Place:7Coach Pope (4/1) 19% · fair 9-2
Show:6American History (9/2) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -36%
Other contenders:3Salahudin (6/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -36%, 2Gaudreau (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -43%, 8He Is No Lie (15/1) 3% · fair 30-1 underlay -50%
Rest of field:1Damavand (20/1) 3% · fair 73-2 underlay -45%, 4Earth Song (20/1) 1% · fair 147-2 underlay -73%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Hughes — 45.5% win probability, morning line 1/1Hughes45.5% ◀Coach Pope — 18.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Coach Pope18.6%American History — 12.4% win probability, morning line 4.5/1American History12.4%Salahudin — 9.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Salahudin9.7%Gaudreau — 6.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Gaudreau6.6%He Is No Lie — 3.2% win probability, morning line 15/1He Is No Lie3.2%Damavand — 2.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Damavand2.7%Earth Song — 1.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Earth Song1.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Hughes45.5%1/1
Coach Pope18.6%4/1
American History12.4%4.5/1
Salahudin9.7%6/1
Gaudreau6.6%8/1
He Is No Lie3.2%15/1
Damavand2.7%20/1
Earth Song1.3%20/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHughes: model 45.5% vs market 38.7% (+6.8 points)Hughes+6.8Coach Pope: model 18.6% vs market 15.5% (+3.1 points)Coach Pope+3.1American History: model 12.4% vs market 14.1% (-1.7 points)American History-1.7Salahudin: model 9.7% vs market 11.0% (-1.4 points)Salahudin-1.4Gaudreau: model 6.6% vs market 8.6% (-2.0 points)Gaudreau-2.0He Is No Lie: model 3.2% vs market 4.8% (-1.6 points)He Is No Lie-1.6Damavand: model 2.7% vs market 3.7% (-1.0 points)Damavand-1.0Earth Song: model 1.3% vs market 3.7% (-2.3 points)Earth Song-2.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Hughes45.5%38.7%+6.8
Coach Pope18.6%15.5%+3.1
American History12.4%14.1%-1.7
Salahudin9.7%11.0%-1.4
Gaudreau6.6%8.6%-2.0
He Is No Lie3.2%4.8%-1.6
Damavand2.7%3.7%-1.0
Earth Song1.3%3.7%-2.3
🌧️ Off-track: 576328
🎯 Longshots: 57623814
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:5How's Al Today (3/1) 31% · fair 2-1 overlay +36%
Place:13Agate (10/1) 16% · fair 5-1 overlay +96%
Show:12Oscar (15/1) 14% · fair 13-2 overlay +135%
Other contenders:7Let Em Know (20/1) 9% · fair 21-2 overlay +90%, 15Popcorn (20/1) 6% · fair 31-2 overlay +31%, 14Great Barrier Reef (4/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -76%, 8Liam's Law (20/1) 5% · fair 18-1, 4Haffner (8/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -64%
Rest of field:1Induction (30/1) 4% · fair 24-1, 2Avec Toi (10/1) 1% · fair 68-1 underlay -85%, 11Man's Best Friend (15/1) 1% · fair 72-1 underlay -79%, 10Folsom Blues (7/2) 1% · fair 73-1 underlay -95%, 3Florida Bay (20/1) 0% · fair 311-1 underlay -94%, 9Sale Shark (30/1) 0% · fair 1029-2 underlay -94%, 6Pikachu (30/1) 0% · fair 1181-2 underlay -95%
Race 10 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

How'S Al Today — 31.2% win probability, morning line 3/1How'S Al Today31.2% ◀Agate — 16.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Agate16.4%Oscar — 13.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Oscar13.6%Let Em Know — 8.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Let Em Know8.7%Popcorn — 6.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Popcorn6.1%Great Barrier Reef — 5.7% win probability, morning line 4/1Great Barrier Reef5.7%Liam'S Law — 5.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Liam'S Law5.2%Haffner — 4.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Haffner4.3%Induction — 4.0% win probability, morning line 30/1Induction4.0%Avec Toi — 1.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Avec Toi1.4%Man'S Best Friend — 1.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Man'S Best Friend1.4%Folsom Blues — 1.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Folsom Blues1.4%Florida Bay — 0.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Florida Bay0.3%Sale Shark — 0.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Sale Shark0.2%Pikachu — 0.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Pikachu0.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
How'S Al Today31.2%3/1
Agate16.4%10/1
Oscar13.6%15/1
Let Em Know8.7%20/1
Popcorn6.1%20/1
Great Barrier Reef5.7%4/1
Liam'S Law5.2%20/1
Haffner4.3%8/1
Induction4.0%30/1
Avec Toi1.4%10/1
Man'S Best Friend1.4%15/1
Folsom Blues1.4%3.5/1
Florida Bay0.3%20/1
Sale Shark0.2%30/1
Pikachu0.2%30/1
Race 10 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHow'S Al Today: model 31.2% vs market 18.2% (+13.0 points)How'S Al Today+13.0Agate: model 16.4% vs market 6.6% (+9.8 points)Agate+9.8Oscar: model 13.6% vs market 4.5% (+9.0 points)Oscar+9.0Let Em Know: model 8.7% vs market 3.5% (+5.2 points)Let Em Know+5.2Popcorn: model 6.1% vs market 3.5% (+2.7 points)Popcorn+2.7Great Barrier Reef: model 5.7% vs market 14.5% (-8.8 points)Great Barrier Reef-8.8Liam'S Law: model 5.2% vs market 3.5% (+1.8 points)Liam'S Law+1.8Haffner: model 4.3% vs market 8.1% (-3.8 points)Haffner-3.8Induction: model 4.0% vs market 2.3% (+1.7 points)Induction+1.7Avec Toi: model 1.4% vs market 6.6% (-5.2 points)Avec Toi-5.2Man'S Best Friend: model 1.4% vs market 4.5% (-3.2 points)Man'S Best Friend-3.2Folsom Blues: model 1.4% vs market 16.1% (-14.8 points)Folsom Blues-14.8Florida Bay: model 0.3% vs market 3.5% (-3.1 points)Florida Bay-3.1Sale Shark: model 0.2% vs market 2.3% (-2.1 points)Sale Shark-2.1Pikachu: model 0.2% vs market 2.3% (-2.2 points)Pikachu-2.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
How'S Al Today31.2%18.2%+13.0
Agate16.4%6.6%+9.8
Oscar13.6%4.5%+9.0
Let Em Know8.7%3.5%+5.2
Popcorn6.1%3.5%+2.7
Great Barrier Reef5.7%14.5%-8.8
Liam'S Law5.2%3.5%+1.8
Haffner4.3%8.1%-3.8
Induction4.0%2.3%+1.7
Avec Toi1.4%6.6%-5.2
Man'S Best Friend1.4%4.5%-3.2
Folsom Blues1.4%16.1%-14.8
Florida Bay0.3%3.5%-3.1
Sale Shark0.2%2.3%-2.1
Pikachu0.2%2.3%-2.2
🌧️ Off-track: 5141310124
🎯 Longshots: 510427613128311115149
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #13, #12, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Keeneland Race Course — average winning payout

What a $2 win bet returned WHEN THE PICK WON. 225 graded races at Keeneland Race Course, 2026-04-03 to 2026-10-24.

$0$2$4$6$7Our top pick: $5.99 from 64 racesOur top pick$5.99Morning-line favourite: $5.44 from 61 racesMorning-line favourite$5.44

This is the size of a winning payout, not a measure of profit — a pick that wins less often at a longer price can average more per winner and still lose money over the month. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupAverage payoutWinners
Our top pick$5.9964
Morning-line favourite$5.4461
 
Race 1  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $175,000
Win:1Emerging Market (6/5)
Place:6Memory (4/1)
Show:2Stowaway (6/1)
Other contenders:3Gould's Gold (6/1), 5Admiral Dennis (5/1), 7Special Session (12/1)
Rest of field:8Azam (15/1), 4Drake's Passage (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 165237
🎯 Longshots: 16723584
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $150,000
Win:6Niosa (2/1)
Place:9Groves (4/1)
Show:4Forgive Me (6/1)
Other contenders:1Ohana Lulu (8/1), 3Honor Is Mine (9/2), 7Maitresse (10/1)
Rest of field:2Golden Reveille (20/1), 8Holiday Pi (15/1), 5At Full Sail (15/1), 10Maximum Capital (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 693417
🎯 Longshots: 63941785210
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #9, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $250,000
Win:3Real Goodbar (9/2)
Place:16Up Before The Dawn (6/1)
Show:2Canada (6/1)
Other contenders:1Maxify (8/1), 8Roscoe Goose (6/1), 6Majik Mooney (10/1), 7Oscar Cheer (12/1), 12Mid American (12/1)
Rest of field:4Observed (8/1), 13Not For Long (8/1), 10Coast Highway (10/1), 11Admiral's Order (15/1), 5Nuit D'eclair (6/1), 15Okarito (30/1), 14That's Fire (30/1), 9Dee's Funny Girl (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3162814
🎯 Longshots: 81331104166271251191514
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #16, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $165,000
Win:10Campobasso (2/1)
Place:7Cornwall Boss (3/1)
Show:6Global Aviator (5/1)
Other contenders:5Send Cash (15/1), 4Ghazaaly (6/1), 1High Camp (8/1)
Rest of field:2Lincoln's Law (12/1), 3Bob's Carrot (15/1), 8Imagine John (20/1), 9Big Apple Patrick (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1076412
🎯 Longshots: 10726513489
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #7, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $165,000
Win:1Yacht Master (4/1)
Place:11Mccoy (7/2)
Show:8Mission Integrity (9/2)
Other contenders:2Kingside (9/2), 5Merit Badge (10/1), 10Dormie (10/1), 9Take A Picture (10/1)
Rest of field:7Fusta (12/1), 3Bet On Silver (12/1), 6Sargent Bilko (20/1), 4Spicy Taco (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 11182510
🎯 Longshots: 1112810569374
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #11, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:4Brickyard Belle (3/1)
Place:10Harper's Corner (8/1)
Show:2Good To Be King (12/1)
Other contenders:13Ruiva (12/1), 14Wood Island (15/1), 3Libertango (5/2), 17Fanshell Beach (30/1), 16Love A Warrior (30/1)
Rest of field:15Adonius (12/1), 8Force Noir (8/1), 9Final Objective (8/1), 11Hell Of A Spin (15/1), 1Moonrise (12/1), 6Velozee (20/1), 7Crownbreaker (20/1), 12Primetime Emmy (15/1), 5Mussab (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 43102138
🎯 Longshots: 4108213314961551127171611
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #10, #2, #13  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:5Miss Monica (5/2)
Place:10Emphatic (9/5)
Show:8Manuka Honey (10/1)
Other contenders:2Domain Expansion (6/1), 1Scarlett Begonia (20/1), 11Voyager (12/1), 3Foxiest (15/1)
Rest of field:4Rum Twist (15/1), 7Lexi's Charm (15/1), 6Revenge Of The Sis (20/1), 9Badittude (30/1), 12Life Changing (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 10528113
🎯 Longshots: 105821171436912
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #10, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:12Domestic Agenda (8/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:8Citrus Springs (15/1)
Show:13Seneca Park (30/1)
Other contenders:4Serenas Ghost (20/1), 5De La Renta (30/1), 9Sun Goddess (6/5), 10Amusingly (7/2), 2Go For Launch (30/1)
Rest of field:7Vanta (20/1), 16Luminous Beauty (30/1), 17Quibbler (30/1), 1Green Empress (10/1), 3Curracloe (12/1), 11Scommessa Sicura (30/1), 6Alwaysanangel (15/1), 15Silent Beauty (30/1), 14Ballinea Star (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 91012814
🎯 Longshots: 1912108376254171316141115
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #8, #13, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:5Hughes (1/1)
Place:6American History (9/2)
Show:7Coach Pope (4/1)
Other contenders:3Salahudin (6/1), 2Gaudreau (8/1), 8He Is No Lie (15/1)
Rest of field:1Damavand (20/1), 4Earth Song (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 567328
🎯 Longshots: 57623814
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:5How's Al Today (3/1)
Place:12Oscar (15/1)
Show:13Agate (10/1)
Other contenders:7Let Em Know (20/1), 15Popcorn (20/1), 8Liam's Law (20/1), 14Great Barrier Reef (4/1), 10Folsom Blues (7/2)
Rest of field:1Induction (30/1), 4Haffner (8/1), 2Avec Toi (10/1), 11Man's Best Friend (15/1), 3Florida Bay (20/1), 6Pikachu (30/1), 9Sale Shark (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5101413412
🎯 Longshots: 510427613128311115149
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #12, #13, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #1 over #6 ($1 straight; box #1-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #6, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #6 over #3 ($1 straight; box #6-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #9, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #3 over #8 ($1 straight; box #3-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #2, #16, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #10 over #7 ($1 straight; box #10-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #10 over #6, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #1 over #11 ($1 straight; box #1-#11 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #11, #2, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #4 over #3 ($1 straight; box #4-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #10, #2, #13 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #10 over #5 ($1 straight; box #10-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #10, #8, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #9 over #12 ($1 straight; box #9-#12 for cover)
Trifecta: #12 over #5, #13, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #5 over #7 ($1 straight; box #5-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #5, #7, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 10AI Exacta: #5 over #13 ($1 straight; box #5-#13 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #13, #15, #12 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.40 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.80 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
88Citrus Springs15/1—9.5%+43.9%0.73%$0.73
85De La Renta ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—4.5%+32.8%0.27%$0.27
1012Oscar15/1—8.4%+29.6%0.49%$0.49
813Seneca Park ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—4.0%+21.5%0.18%$0.18
614Wood Island15/1—7.5%+17.1%0.28%$0.28
613Ruiva12/1—8.9%+13.6%0.28%$0.28
37Oscar Cheer12/1—8.6%+10.4%0.22%$0.22
82Go For Launch ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—3.6%+8.8%0.07%$0.07
62Good To Be King12/1—8.4%+7.3%0.15%$0.15
101Induction ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—3.2%+-0.3%0.00%$0.00
87Vanta ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer20/1—4.5%+-5.2%0.00%$0.00
84Serenas Ghost ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer20/1—4.1%+-11.1%0.00%$0.00
817Quibbler ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.8%+-11.4%0.00%$0.00
107Let Em Know ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer20/1—4.0%+-13.3%0.00%$0.00
616Love A Warrior ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.6%+-15.4%0.00%$0.00
815Silent Beauty ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.6%+-16.3%0.00%$0.00
617Fanshell Beach ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.6%+-17.6%0.00%$0.00
1015Popcorn ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer20/1—3.5%+-22.0%0.00%$0.00
108Liam'S Law ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer20/1—3.5%+-22.0%0.00%$0.00
814Ballinea Star ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.4%+-22.1%0.00%$0.00
816Luminous Beauty ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.3%+-24.5%0.00%$0.00
TOTAL across 21 plays:2.7%$2.69
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $175,000
Win:1Emerging Market (6/5)
Place:6Memory (4/1)
Show:2Stowaway (6/1)
Other contenders:3Gould's Gold (6/1), 5Admiral Dennis (5/1), 8Azam (15/1)
Rest of field:7Special Session (12/1), 4Drake's Passage (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 165237
🎯 Longshots: 16723584
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $150,000
Win:6Niosa (2/1)
Place:3Honor Is Mine (9/2)
Show:4Forgive Me (6/1)
Other contenders:9Groves (4/1), 1Ohana Lulu (8/1), 7Maitresse (10/1)
Rest of field:8Holiday Pi (15/1), 5At Full Sail (15/1), 2Golden Reveille (20/1), 10Maximum Capital (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 693417
🎯 Longshots: 63941785210
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #4, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $250,000
Win:3Real Goodbar (9/2)
Place:16Up Before The Dawn (6/1)
Show:4Observed (8/1)
Other contenders:10Coast Highway (10/1), 13Not For Long (8/1), 8Roscoe Goose (6/1), 2Canada (6/1), 1Maxify (8/1)
Rest of field:6Majik Mooney (10/1), 7Oscar Cheer (12/1), 5Nuit D'eclair (6/1), 11Admiral's Order (15/1), 9Dee's Funny Girl (12/1), 12Mid American (12/1), 14That's Fire (30/1), 15Okarito (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 31682413
🎯 Longshots: 81331104166271251191514
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #16, #4, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $165,000
Win:10Campobasso (2/1)
Place:7Cornwall Boss (3/1)
Show:6Global Aviator (5/1)
Other contenders:4Ghazaaly (6/1), 1High Camp (8/1), 5Send Cash (15/1)
Rest of field:2Lincoln's Law (12/1), 3Bob's Carrot (15/1), 8Imagine John (20/1), 9Big Apple Patrick (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1076412
🎯 Longshots: 10726513489
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #7, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $165,000
Win:1Yacht Master (4/1)
Place:11Mccoy (7/2)
Show:2Kingside (9/2)
Other contenders:8Mission Integrity (9/2), 7Fusta (12/1), 10Dormie (10/1), 3Bet On Silver (12/1)
Rest of field:9Take A Picture (10/1), 5Merit Badge (10/1), 6Sargent Bilko (20/1), 4Spicy Taco (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 11128710
🎯 Longshots: 1112810569374
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #11, #2, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:4Brickyard Belle (3/1)
Place:3Libertango (5/2)
Show:9Final Objective (8/1)
Other contenders:10Harper's Corner (8/1), 13Ruiva (12/1), 8Force Noir (8/1), 2Good To Be King (12/1), 15Adonius (12/1)
Rest of field:14Wood Island (15/1), 6Velozee (20/1), 17Fanshell Beach (30/1), 1Moonrise (12/1), 7Crownbreaker (20/1), 16Love A Warrior (30/1), 12Primetime Emmy (15/1), 5Mussab (15/1), 11Hell Of A Spin (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 43910813
🎯 Longshots: 4108213314961551127171611
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #9, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:10Emphatic (9/5)
Place:5Miss Monica (5/2)
Show:8Manuka Honey (10/1)
Other contenders:2Domain Expansion (6/1), 3Foxiest (15/1), 1Scarlett Begonia (20/1), 11Voyager (12/1)
Rest of field:6Revenge Of The Sis (20/1), 4Rum Twist (15/1), 9Badittude (30/1), 7Lexi's Charm (15/1), 12Life Changing (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 10528113
🎯 Longshots: 105821171436912
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #5, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:9Sun Goddess (6/5)
Place:12Domestic Agenda (8/1)
Show:10Amusingly (7/2)
Other contenders:3Curracloe (12/1), 1Green Empress (10/1), 8Citrus Springs (15/1), 2Go For Launch (30/1), 4Serenas Ghost (20/1)
Rest of field:7Vanta (20/1), 13Seneca Park (30/1), 5De La Renta (30/1), 17Quibbler (30/1), 6Alwaysanangel (15/1), 15Silent Beauty (30/1), 16Luminous Beauty (30/1), 14Ballinea Star (30/1), 11Scommessa Sicura (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 91012138
🎯 Longshots: 1912108376254171316141115
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #12, #10, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:5Hughes (1/1)
Place:7Coach Pope (4/1)
Show:6American History (9/2)
Other contenders:3Salahudin (6/1), 2Gaudreau (8/1), 8He Is No Lie (15/1)
Rest of field:1Damavand (20/1), 4Earth Song (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 576328
🎯 Longshots: 57623814
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:5How's Al Today (3/1)
Place:10Folsom Blues (7/2)
Show:4Haffner (8/1)
Other contenders:14Great Barrier Reef (4/1), 2Avec Toi (10/1), 15Popcorn (20/1), 13Agate (10/1), 12Oscar (15/1)
Rest of field:8Liam's Law (20/1), 7Let Em Know (20/1), 1Induction (30/1), 3Florida Bay (20/1), 6Pikachu (30/1), 11Man's Best Friend (15/1), 9Sale Shark (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 510144213
🎯 Longshots: 510427613128311115149
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #10, #4, #14  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $175,000
Win:1Emerging Market (6/5)
Place:6Memory (4/1)
Show:5Admiral Dennis (5/1)
Other contenders:2Stowaway (6/1), 3Gould's Gold (6/1), 7Special Session (12/1)
Rest of field:4Drake's Passage (30/1), 8Azam (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 165237
🎯 Longshots: 16723584
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $150,000
Win:6Niosa (2/1)
Place:9Groves (4/1)
Show:4Forgive Me (6/1)
Other contenders:1Ohana Lulu (8/1), 3Honor Is Mine (9/2), 7Maitresse (10/1)
Rest of field:2Golden Reveille (20/1), 8Holiday Pi (15/1), 5At Full Sail (15/1), 10Maximum Capital (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 694317
🎯 Longshots: 63941785210
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #9, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $250,000
Win:3Real Goodbar (9/2)
Place:2Canada (6/1)
Show:16Up Before The Dawn (6/1)
Other contenders:7Oscar Cheer (12/1), 1Maxify (8/1), 12Mid American (12/1), 6Majik Mooney (10/1), 8Roscoe Goose (6/1)
Rest of field:4Observed (8/1), 11Admiral's Order (15/1), 10Coast Highway (10/1), 13Not For Long (8/1), 5Nuit D'eclair (6/1), 15Okarito (30/1), 14That's Fire (30/1), 9Dee's Funny Girl (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3216814
🎯 Longshots: 81331104166271251191514
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #16, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $165,000
Win:10Campobasso (2/1)
Place:6Global Aviator (5/1)
Show:7Cornwall Boss (3/1)
Other contenders:5Send Cash (15/1), 4Ghazaaly (6/1), 3Bob's Carrot (15/1)
Rest of field:2Lincoln's Law (12/1), 1High Camp (8/1), 8Imagine John (20/1), 9Big Apple Patrick (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1076415
🎯 Longshots: 10726513489
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #6, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $165,000
Win:1Yacht Master (4/1)
Place:11Mccoy (7/2)
Show:2Kingside (9/2)
Other contenders:8Mission Integrity (9/2), 5Merit Badge (10/1), 9Take A Picture (10/1), 7Fusta (12/1)
Rest of field:10Dormie (10/1), 6Sargent Bilko (20/1), 3Bet On Silver (12/1), 4Spicy Taco (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1112859
🎯 Longshots: 1112810569374
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #11, #2, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:4Brickyard Belle (3/1)
Place:10Harper's Corner (8/1)
Show:2Good To Be King (12/1)
Other contenders:13Ruiva (12/1), 14Wood Island (15/1), 15Adonius (12/1), 17Fanshell Beach (30/1), 16Love A Warrior (30/1)
Rest of field:3Libertango (5/2), 9Final Objective (8/1), 8Force Noir (8/1), 1Moonrise (12/1), 6Velozee (20/1), 12Primetime Emmy (15/1), 5Mussab (15/1), 7Crownbreaker (20/1), 11Hell Of A Spin (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 431021315
🎯 Longshots: 4108213314961551127171611
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #10, #2, #13  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:5Miss Monica (5/2)
Place:10Emphatic (9/5)
Show:8Manuka Honey (10/1)
Other contenders:2Domain Expansion (6/1), 11Voyager (12/1), 1Scarlett Begonia (20/1), 3Foxiest (15/1)
Rest of field:6Revenge Of The Sis (20/1), 4Rum Twist (15/1), 7Lexi's Charm (15/1), 9Badittude (30/1), 12Life Changing (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 10528113
🎯 Longshots: 105821171436912
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #10, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  1 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:12Domestic Agenda (8/1)
Place:5De La Renta (30/1)
Show:13Seneca Park (30/1)
Other contenders:4Serenas Ghost (20/1), 8Citrus Springs (15/1), 16Luminous Beauty (30/1), 2Go For Launch (30/1), 7Vanta (20/1)
Rest of field:9Sun Goddess (6/5), 17Quibbler (30/1), 10Amusingly (7/2), 1Green Empress (10/1), 3Curracloe (12/1), 6Alwaysanangel (15/1), 11Scommessa Sicura (30/1), 14Ballinea Star (30/1), 15Silent Beauty (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 91012814
🎯 Longshots: 1912108376254171316141115
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #5, #13, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $2,000,000
Win:6American History (9/2)
Place:5Hughes (1/1)
Show:7Coach Pope (4/1)
Other contenders:3Salahudin (6/1), 2Gaudreau (8/1), 8He Is No Lie (15/1)
Rest of field:1Damavand (20/1), 4Earth Song (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 567328
🎯 Longshots: 57623814
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 Miles · Turf · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $1,000,000
Win:5How's Al Today (3/1)
Place:13Agate (10/1)
Show:15Popcorn (20/1)
Other contenders:12Oscar (15/1), 7Let Em Know (20/1), 8Liam's Law (20/1), 1Induction (30/1), 10Folsom Blues (7/2)
Rest of field:4Haffner (8/1), 14Great Barrier Reef (4/1), 2Avec Toi (10/1), 11Man's Best Friend (15/1), 3Florida Bay (20/1), 6Pikachu (30/1), 9Sale Shark (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5101413412
🎯 Longshots: 510427613128311115149
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #13, #15, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R2-4R2: #6,#9 (65%) / R3: #3,#16,#8 (40%) / R4: #10,#7 (68%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 18%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #10,#7 (68%) / R5: #11,#1,#8 (62%) / R6: #4,#10,#13 (62%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26%
Pick 3 R7-9R7: #5,#10,#8 (71%) / R8: #12,#8,#10 (50%) / R9: #5,#7 (64%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23%
Pick 3 R8-10R8: #12,#8,#10 (50%) / R9: #5,#7 (64%) / R10: #5,#13,#12 (61%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 20%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #1,#2,#6 (68%) / R2: #6,#9 (65%) / R3: #3,#16,#8 (40%) / R4: #10,#7 (68%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 12%
Pick 4 R4-7R4: #10,#7 (68%) / R5: #11,#1,#8 (62%) / R6: #4,#10,#13 (62%) / R7: #5,#10,#8 (71%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 18%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ADMIRAL DENNISADMIRAL'S ORDERADONIUSAGATEALWAYSANANGEL
AMUSINGLYAT FULL SAILAVEC TOIAZAMBADITTUDE
BET ON SILVERBIG APPLE PATRICKBOB'S CARROTBRICKYARD BELLECAMPOBASSO
CITRUS SPRINGSCOACH POPECOAST HIGHWAYCORNWALL BOSSCROWNBREAKER
DAMAVANDDE LA RENTADEE'S FUNNY GIRLDOMAIN EXPANSIONDOMESTIC AGENDA
DRAKE'S PASSAGEEARTH SONGEMERGING MARKETEMPHATICFANSHELL BEACH
FLORIDA BAYFOLSOM BLUESFORCE NOIRFORGIVE MEFOXIEST
GAUDREAUGHAZAALYGLOBAL AVIATORGO FOR LAUNCHGOLDEN REVEILLE
GOULD'S GOLDGREAT BARRIER REEFGREEN EMPRESSGROVESHAFFNER
HE IS NO LIEHELL OF A SPINHIGH CAMPHOLIDAY PIHONOR IS MINE
HUGHESIMAGINE JOHNINDUCTIONKINGSIDELET EM KNOW
LIAM'S LAWLIBERTANGOLIFE CHANGINGLINCOLN'S LAWLOVE A WARRIOR
MAITRESSEMAJIK MOONEYMAN'S BEST FRIENDMANUKA HONEYMAXIFY
MCCOYMEMORYMERIT BADGEMID AMERICANMISS MONICA
MOONRISEMUSSABNIOSANOT FOR LONGNUIT D'ECLAIR
OHANA LULUOKARITOOSCAROSCAR CHEERPIKACHU
PRIMETIME EMMYQUIBBLERREAL GOODBARREVENGE OF THE SISROSCOE GOOSE
RUM TWISTSALAHUDINSALE SHARKSARGENT BILKOSCARLETT BEGONIA
SEND CASHSENECA PARKSERENAS GHOSTSILENT BEAUTYSPECIAL SESSION
STOWAWAYSUN GODDESSTAKE A PICTURETHAT'S FIREUP BEFORE THE DAWN
VELOZEEVOYAGERWOOD ISLANDYACHT MASTER

 


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