Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Keeneland Race Course, October 8, 2026


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $63,000
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Vissino (8/5)
Place:4Slickback (9/5)
Show:1Detention (3/1)
Other contenders:7Sargent Bilko (7/2), 5Braums Run (8/1)
Rest of field:6Mr. Fete (15/1), 3Ten Mile House (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 364172
🎯 Longshots: 2541763
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $85,000
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Touch Money (9/2)
Place:1Soap Note (5/1)
Show:5Cavalry Call (7/2)
Other contenders:2Divine Truth (6/1), 6Double Arrow (9/2), 9Glen Road (8/1)
Rest of field:10El Gran Ruchacha (12/1), 3Mitole Joe (30/1), 7Prince Of Tides (15/1), 4Silversary (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 815269
🎯 Longshots: 51283961074
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $49,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Final Thoughts (2/1)
Place:8Da Prince Is Right (3/1)
Show:7Bird The Legend (7/2)
Other contenders:2Surfin' M (6/1), 6Sotto Mo (20/1), 4Kenwood Street (10/1)
Rest of field:9Fight The Power (15/1), 3Roadswitcher (12/1), 5Romantic Lead (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 871465
🎯 Longshots: 178246935
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $50,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
Win:4Roughnthepassenger (7/2)
Place:8Dancewhenyoucan (3/1)
Show:6Shanett (10/1)
Other contenders:9Danzig's Dora (9/2), 11Ashkenazi (8/1), 3Ides Of Demarch (10/1), 5Zafyre (12/1)
Rest of field:1Magic Seeker (15/1), 7Super Costly (15/1), 2Dip Fantasia (20/1), 10Nueva Luna (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5114671
🎯 Longshots: 6113874529101
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #8, #6, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $53,000
Win:9Juana Margarita (3/1)
Place:16Maple Ridge (8/1)
Show:5Princess Chanty (9/2)
Other contenders:12Dagny Taggart (5/1), 3Oro Estrella (8/1), 10Riding Coattails (6/1), 2Hips Of A Lady (15/1), 11Fan's Choice (20/1)
Rest of field:4Curlin's Court (10/1), 15Opalite Dust (20/1), 13Lily's Revenge (12/1), 7Aloha Magic (15/1), 8Livelaughloy (20/1), 1Amavida (20/1), 14Bride (20/1), 6Aloha Kim (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3121410114
🎯 Longshots: 16391215112107135141648
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #16, #5, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $63,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
Win:6Freaks Go (7/2)
Place:8Ships Inn (3/1)
Show:7Bet The Gray (9/2)
Other contenders:1Bourbon Notes (6/1), 2Quick To Charm (4/1), 5Miss Elle (5/1)
Rest of field:4Scythia (15/1), 3Lady Valor (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 387651
🎯 Longshots: 86137245
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $140,000
Win:4Outfielder (8/5)
Place:3Schwarzenegger (5/2)
Show:7Oscar's Hope (9/2)
Other contenders:2Rebel With A Cause (6/1), 5Throckmorton (8/1), 6Yukon Striker (12/1)
Rest of field:1Two Seven O (20/1), 8Bobrovsky (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 243768
🎯 Longshots: 43651872
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $110,000
Win:8Joy Of Life (7/2)
Place:1Pearl Lake (6/1)
Show:5Candy Illusion (6/1)
Other contenders:9It's The Law (5/1), 12Babylon Sister (8/1), 3La Noche Negra (10/1), 2Palestra (6/1)
Rest of field:13Epic Dawn (9/2), 11Mayflower Girl (15/1), 7Where's The Law (20/1), 4Hot Fries (15/1), 10Won'tcatchmecryan (20/1), 14Winter White (8/1), 6Dustinthewin (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8159122
🎯 Longshots: 8134511710122913146
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #5, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $150,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Highway Robber (3/1)
Place:12Taking Candy (5/1)
Show:1Funtastic Again (9/2)
Other contenders:9Facteur Cheval (6/1), 5Salamis (8/1), 7Fort Washington (10/1), 11Poster (8/1)
Rest of field:3Anegada (20/1), 4Giocoso (20/1), 8Noises Off (20/1), 6Smokey Mandate (20/1), 10Ancient Rome (30/1), 13Tonka Warrior (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 61135211
🎯 Longshots: 25712461118133109
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #12, #1, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:2D Bigalow (4/1)
Place:1Classic Cause (7/2)
Show:15Phantom Slayer (9/2)
Other contenders:3Terre Haute (5/1), 5Tapit's Gunner (6/1), 16Bourbonkoma (6/1), 6Mayweather (15/1), 11Can't Stop Willis (10/1)
Rest of field:8Life Boat (10/1), 9Stoic Sage (8/1), 12Camino (20/1), 4Greystar (15/1), 10Tuxedo Park (30/1), 14Wavefront (15/1), 7Fast Jimmy (20/1), 13Page Two (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 16210791
🎯 Longshots: 12116910241515816371314
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #15, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $63,000
Win:2Vissino (8/5) 31% · fair 2-1 underlay -27%
Place:4Slickback (9/5) 27% · fair 5-2 underlay -32%
Show:7Sargent Bilko (7/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -42%
Other contenders:1Detention (3/1) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -53%, 5Braums Run (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2
Rest of field:6Mr. Fete (15/1) 3% · fair 67-2 underlay -55%, 3Ten Mile House (20/1) 2% · fair 99-2 underlay -60%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Vissino — 31.2% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Vissino31.2% ◀Slickback — 27.3% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Slickback27.3%Sargent Bilko — 14.3% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Sargent Bilko14.3%Detention — 13.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Detention13.6%Braums Run — 8.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Braums Run8.7%Mr. Fete — 2.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Mr. Fete2.9%Ten Mile House — 2.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Ten Mile House2.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Vissino31.2%1.6/1
Slickback27.3%1.8/1
Sargent Bilko14.3%3.5/1
Detention13.6%3/1
Braums Run8.7%8/1
Mr. Fete2.9%15/1
Ten Mile House2.0%20/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherVissino: model 31.2% vs market 26.8% (+4.4 points)Vissino+4.4Slickback: model 27.3% vs market 24.9% (+2.4 points)Slickback+2.4Sargent Bilko: model 14.3% vs market 15.5% (-1.2 points)Sargent Bilko-1.2Detention: model 13.6% vs market 17.4% (-3.8 points)Detention-3.8Braums Run: model 8.7% vs market 7.7% (+0.9 points)Braums Run+0.9Mr. Fete: model 2.9% vs market 4.4% (-1.4 points)Mr. Fete-1.4Ten Mile House: model 2.0% vs market 3.3% (-1.3 points)Ten Mile House-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Vissino31.2%26.8%+4.4
Slickback27.3%24.9%+2.4
Sargent Bilko14.3%15.5%-1.2
Detention13.6%17.4%-3.8
Braums Run8.7%7.7%+0.9
Mr. Fete2.9%4.4%-1.4
Ten Mile House2.0%3.3%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 364172
🎯 Longshots: 2541763
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $85,000
Win:6Double Arrow (9/2) 17% · fair 5-1
Place:5Cavalry Call (7/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -37%
Show:8Touch Money (9/2) 15% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:9Glen Road (8/1) 12% · fair 7-1, 1Soap Note (5/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -41%, 2Divine Truth (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -33%
Rest of field:10El Gran Ruchacha (12/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 7Prince Of Tides (15/1) 5% · fair 19-1, 4Silversary (12/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -51%, 3Mitole Joe (30/1) 2% · fair 54-1 underlay -45%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Double Arrow — 17.3% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Double Arrow17.3% ◀Cavalry Call — 15.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Cavalry Call15.2%Touch Money — 15.0% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Touch Money15.0%Glen Road — 12.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Glen Road12.2%Soap Note — 10.6% win probability, morning line 5/1Soap Note10.6%Divine Truth — 10.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Divine Truth10.0%El Gran Ruchacha — 8.9% win probability, morning line 12/1El Gran Ruchacha8.9%Prince Of Tides — 4.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Prince Of Tides4.9%Silversary — 3.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Silversary3.9%Mitole Joe — 1.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Mitole Joe1.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Double Arrow17.3%4.5/1
Cavalry Call15.2%3.5/1
Touch Money15.0%4.5/1
Glen Road12.2%8/1
Soap Note10.6%5/1
Divine Truth10.0%6/1
El Gran Ruchacha8.9%12/1
Prince Of Tides4.9%15/1
Silversary3.9%12/1
Mitole Joe1.8%30/1
🌧️ Off-track: 658912
🎯 Longshots: 51283961074
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #8, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $49,000
Win:1Final Thoughts (2/1) 37% · fair 3-2
Place:8Da Prince Is Right (3/1) 21% · fair 7-2
Show:7Bird The Legend (7/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -38%
Other contenders:2Surfin' M (6/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -57%, 3Roadswitcher (12/1) 6% · fair 31-2, 6Sotto Mo (20/1) 5% · fair 18-1
Rest of field:9Fight The Power (15/1) 3% · fair 55-2 underlay -46%, 4Kenwood Street (10/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -67%, 5Romantic Lead (30/1) 2% · fair 64-1 underlay -53%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Final Thoughts — 37.4% win probability, morning line 2/1Final Thoughts37.4% ◀Da Prince Is Right — 21.4% win probability, morning line 3/1Da Prince Is Right21.4%Bird The Legend — 15.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Bird The Legend15.0%Surfin' M — 6.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Surfin' M6.7%Roadswitcher — 6.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Roadswitcher6.0%Sotto Mo — 5.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Sotto Mo5.2%Fight The Power — 3.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Fight The Power3.5%Kenwood Street — 3.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Kenwood Street3.2%Romantic Lead — 1.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Romantic Lead1.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Final Thoughts37.4%2/1
Da Prince Is Right21.4%3/1
Bird The Legend15.0%3.5/1
Surfin' M6.7%6/1
Roadswitcher6.0%12/1
Sotto Mo5.2%20/1
Fight The Power3.5%15/1
Kenwood Street3.2%10/1
Romantic Lead1.5%30/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherFinal Thoughts: model 37.4% vs market 26.5% (+10.9 points)Final Thoughts+10.9Da Prince Is Right: model 21.4% vs market 19.9% (+1.6 points)Da Prince Is Right+1.6Bird The Legend: model 15.0% vs market 17.7% (-2.7 points)Bird The Legend-2.7Surfin' M: model 6.7% vs market 11.4% (-4.7 points)Surfin' M-4.7Roadswitcher: model 6.0% vs market 6.1% (-0.1 points)Roadswitcher-0.1Sotto Mo: model 5.2% vs market 3.8% (+1.5 points)Sotto Mo+1.5Fight The Power: model 3.5% vs market 5.0% (-1.5 points)Fight The Power-1.5Kenwood Street: model 3.2% vs market 7.2% (-4.0 points)Kenwood Street-4.0Romantic Lead: model 1.5% vs market 2.6% (-1.0 points)Romantic Lead-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Final Thoughts37.4%26.5%+10.9
Da Prince Is Right21.4%19.9%+1.6
Bird The Legend15.0%17.7%-2.7
Surfin' M6.7%11.4%-4.7
Roadswitcher6.0%6.1%-0.1
Sotto Mo5.2%3.8%+1.5
Fight The Power3.5%5.0%-1.5
Kenwood Street3.2%7.2%-4.0
Romantic Lead1.5%2.6%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 874165
🎯 Longshots: 178246935
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $50,000
Win:4Roughnthepassenger (7/2) 29% · fair 5-2 overlay +46%
Place:8Dancewhenyoucan (3/1) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -29%
Show:6Shanett (10/1) 13% · fair 7-1 overlay +46%
Other contenders:9Danzig's Dora (9/2) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -43%, 11Ashkenazi (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -34%, 3Ides Of Demarch (10/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -59%, 1Magic Seeker (15/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -43%
Rest of field:5Zafyre (12/1) 4% · fair 27-1 underlay -55%, 2Dip Fantasia (20/1) 3% · fair 63-2 underlay -36%, 7Super Costly (15/1) 3% · fair 63-2 underlay -53%, 10Nueva Luna (15/1) 3% · fair 77-2 underlay -61%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Roughnthepassenger — 29.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Roughnthepassenger29.5% ◀Dancewhenyoucan — 19.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Dancewhenyoucan19.2%Shanett — 12.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Shanett12.8%Danzig'S Dora — 11.2% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Danzig'S Dora11.2%Ashkenazi — 7.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Ashkenazi7.6%Ides Of Demarch — 3.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Ides Of Demarch3.9%Magic Seeker — 3.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Magic Seeker3.7%Zafyre — 3.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Zafyre3.6%Dip Fantasia — 3.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Dip Fantasia3.1%Super Costly — 3.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Super Costly3.1%Nueva Luna — 2.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Nueva Luna2.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Roughnthepassenger29.5%3.5/1
Dancewhenyoucan19.2%3/1
Shanett12.8%10/1
Danzig'S Dora11.2%4.5/1
Ashkenazi7.6%8/1
Ides Of Demarch3.9%10/1
Magic Seeker3.7%15/1
Zafyre3.6%12/1
Dip Fantasia3.1%20/1
Super Costly3.1%15/1
Nueva Luna2.5%15/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRoughnthepassenger: model 29.5% vs market 17.7% (+11.8 points)Roughnthepassenger+11.8Dancewhenyoucan: model 19.2% vs market 19.9% (-0.7 points)Dancewhenyoucan-0.7Shanett: model 12.8% vs market 7.2% (+5.5 points)Shanett+5.5Danzig'S Dora: model 11.2% vs market 14.4% (-3.2 points)Danzig'S Dora-3.2Ashkenazi: model 7.6% vs market 8.8% (-1.3 points)Ashkenazi-1.3Ides Of Demarch: model 3.9% vs market 7.2% (-3.3 points)Ides Of Demarch-3.3Magic Seeker: model 3.7% vs market 5.0% (-1.3 points)Magic Seeker-1.3Zafyre: model 3.6% vs market 6.1% (-2.5 points)Zafyre-2.5Dip Fantasia: model 3.1% vs market 3.8% (-0.7 points)Dip Fantasia-0.7Super Costly: model 3.1% vs market 5.0% (-1.9 points)Super Costly-1.9Nueva Luna: model 2.5% vs market 5.0% (-2.4 points)Nueva Luna-2.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Roughnthepassenger29.5%17.7%+11.8
Dancewhenyoucan19.2%19.9%-0.7
Shanett12.8%7.2%+5.5
Danzig'S Dora11.2%14.4%-3.2
Ashkenazi7.6%8.8%-1.3
Ides Of Demarch3.9%7.2%-3.3
Magic Seeker3.7%5.0%-1.3
Zafyre3.6%6.1%-2.5
Dip Fantasia3.1%3.8%-0.7
Super Costly3.1%5.0%-1.9
Nueva Luna2.5%5.0%-2.4
🌧️ Off-track: 5117461
🎯 Longshots: 6113874529101
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #8, #6, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $53,000
Win:9Juana Margarita (3/1) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -28%
Place:12Dagny Taggart (5/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -28%
Show:16Maple Ridge (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:10Riding Coattails (6/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -37%, 3Oro Estrella (8/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -32%, 5Princess Chanty (9/2) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -62%, 11Fan's Choice (20/1) 7% · fair 29-2 overlay +40%, 4Curlin's Court (10/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -56%
Rest of field:13Lily's Revenge (12/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -53%, 2Hips Of A Lady (15/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -43%, 15Opalite Dust (20/1) 4% · fair 55-2 underlay -27%, 7Aloha Magic (15/1) 2% · fair 42-1 underlay -64%, 1Amavida (20/1) 2% · fair 46-1 underlay -56%, 14Bride (20/1) 2% · fair 93-2 underlay -57%, 8Livelaughloy (20/1) 2% · fair 48-1 underlay -58%, 6Aloha Kim (30/1) 1% · fair 92-1 underlay -67%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Juana Margarita — 19.4% win probability, morning line 3/1Juana Margarita19.4% ◀Dagny Taggart — 12.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Dagny Taggart12.5%Maple Ridge — 11.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Maple Ridge11.6%Riding Coattails — 9.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Riding Coattails9.5%Oro Estrella — 7.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Oro Estrella7.8%Princess Chanty — 7.8% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Princess Chanty7.8%Fan'S Choice — 6.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Fan'S Choice6.5%Curlin'S Court — 4.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Curlin'S Court4.2%Lily'S Revenge — 3.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Lily'S Revenge3.8%Hips Of A Lady — 3.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Hips Of A Lady3.7%Opalite Dust — 3.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Opalite Dust3.5%Aloha Magic — 2.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Aloha Magic2.3%Amavida — 2.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Amavida2.1%Bride — 2.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Bride2.1%Livelaughloy — 2.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Livelaughloy2.0%Aloha Kim — 1.1% win probability, morning line 30/1Aloha Kim1.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Juana Margarita19.4%3/1
Dagny Taggart12.5%5/1
Maple Ridge11.6%8/1
Riding Coattails9.5%6/1
Oro Estrella7.8%8/1
Princess Chanty7.8%4.5/1
Fan'S Choice6.5%20/1
Curlin'S Court4.2%10/1
Lily'S Revenge3.8%12/1
Hips Of A Lady3.7%15/1
Opalite Dust3.5%20/1
Aloha Magic2.3%15/1
Amavida2.1%20/1
Bride2.1%20/1
Livelaughloy2.0%20/1
Aloha Kim1.1%30/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherJuana Margarita: model 19.4% vs market 16.4% (+3.0 points)Juana Margarita+3.0Dagny Taggart: model 12.5% vs market 10.9% (+1.6 points)Dagny Taggart+1.6Maple Ridge: model 11.6% vs market 7.3% (+4.3 points)Maple Ridge+4.3Riding Coattails: model 9.5% vs market 9.4% (+0.1 points)Riding Coattails+0.1Oro Estrella: model 7.8% vs market 7.3% (+0.5 points)Oro Estrella+0.5Princess Chanty: model 7.8% vs market 11.9% (-4.2 points)Princess Chanty-4.2Fan'S Choice: model 6.5% vs market 3.1% (+3.4 points)Fan'S Choice+3.4Curlin'S Court: model 4.2% vs market 6.0% (-1.8 points)Curlin'S Court-1.8Lily'S Revenge: model 3.8% vs market 5.0% (-1.2 points)Lily'S Revenge-1.2Hips Of A Lady: model 3.7% vs market 4.1% (-0.4 points)Hips Of A Lady-0.4Opalite Dust: model 3.5% vs market 3.1% (+0.4 points)Opalite Dust+0.4Aloha Magic: model 2.3% vs market 4.1% (-1.8 points)Aloha Magic-1.8Amavida: model 2.1% vs market 3.1% (-1.0 points)Amavida-1.0Bride: model 2.1% vs market 3.1% (-1.0 points)Bride-1.0Livelaughloy: model 2.0% vs market 3.1% (-1.1 points)Livelaughloy-1.1Aloha Kim: model 1.1% vs market 2.1% (-1.0 points)Aloha Kim-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Juana Margarita19.4%16.4%+3.0
Dagny Taggart12.5%10.9%+1.6
Maple Ridge11.6%7.3%+4.3
Riding Coattails9.5%9.4%+0.1
Oro Estrella7.8%7.3%+0.5
Princess Chanty7.8%11.9%-4.2
Fan'S Choice6.5%3.1%+3.4
Curlin'S Court4.2%6.0%-1.8
Lily'S Revenge3.8%5.0%-1.2
Hips Of A Lady3.7%4.1%-0.4
Opalite Dust3.5%3.1%+0.4
Aloha Magic2.3%4.1%-1.8
Amavida2.1%3.1%-1.0
Bride2.1%3.1%-1.0
Livelaughloy2.0%3.1%-1.1
Aloha Kim1.1%2.1%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 3141210114
🎯 Longshots: 16391215112107135141648
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #12, #16, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $63,000
Win:6Freaks Go (7/2) 31% · fair 2-1 overlay +60%
Place:8Ships Inn (3/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -47%
Show:7Bet The Gray (9/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -28%
Other contenders:2Quick To Charm (4/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -41%, 1Bourbon Notes (6/1) 11% · fair 15-2, 5Miss Elle (5/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -54%
Rest of field:3Lady Valor (20/1) 4% · fair 55-2 underlay -27%, 4Scythia (15/1) 3% · fair 28-1 underlay -46%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Freaks Go — 31.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Freaks Go31.4% ◀Ships Inn — 15.1% win probability, morning line 3/1Ships Inn15.1%Bet The Gray — 13.8% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Bet The Gray13.8%Quick To Charm — 12.9% win probability, morning line 4/1Quick To Charm12.9%Bourbon Notes — 11.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Bourbon Notes11.4%Miss Elle — 8.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Miss Elle8.5%Lady Valor — 3.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Lady Valor3.5%Scythia — 3.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Scythia3.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Freaks Go31.4%3.5/1
Ships Inn15.1%3/1
Bet The Gray13.8%4.5/1
Quick To Charm12.9%4/1
Bourbon Notes11.4%6/1
Miss Elle8.5%5/1
Lady Valor3.5%20/1
Scythia3.5%15/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherFreaks Go: model 31.4% vs market 17.4% (+13.9 points)Freaks Go+13.9Ships Inn: model 15.1% vs market 19.6% (-4.6 points)Ships Inn-4.6Bet The Gray: model 13.8% vs market 14.3% (-0.4 points)Bet The Gray-0.4Quick To Charm: model 12.9% vs market 15.7% (-2.8 points)Quick To Charm-2.8Bourbon Notes: model 11.4% vs market 11.2% (+0.2 points)Bourbon Notes+0.2Miss Elle: model 8.5% vs market 13.1% (-4.6 points)Miss Elle-4.6Lady Valor: model 3.5% vs market 3.7% (-0.2 points)Lady Valor-0.2Scythia: model 3.5% vs market 4.9% (-1.4 points)Scythia-1.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Freaks Go31.4%17.4%+13.9
Ships Inn15.1%19.6%-4.6
Bet The Gray13.8%14.3%-0.4
Quick To Charm12.9%15.7%-2.8
Bourbon Notes11.4%11.2%+0.2
Miss Elle8.5%13.1%-4.6
Lady Valor3.5%3.7%-0.2
Scythia3.5%4.9%-1.4
🌧️ Off-track: 378651
🎯 Longshots: 86137245
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $140,000
Win:4Outfielder (8/5) 27% · fair 5-2 underlay -40%
Place:3Schwarzenegger (5/2) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -31%
Show:7Oscar's Hope (9/2) 16% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:2Rebel With A Cause (6/1) 14% · fair 6-1, 5Throckmorton (8/1) 11% · fair 17-2, 6Yukon Striker (12/1) 6% · fair 17-1 underlay -30%
Rest of field:1Two Seven O (20/1) 3% · fair 71-2 underlay -44%, 8Bobrovsky (20/1) 2% · fair 87-2 underlay -54%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Outfielder — 27.2% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Outfielder27.2% ◀Schwarzenegger — 21.8% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Schwarzenegger21.8%Oscar'S Hope — 15.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Oscar'S Hope15.6%Rebel With A Cause — 14.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Rebel With A Cause14.2%Throckmorton — 10.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Throckmorton10.7%Yukon Striker — 5.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Yukon Striker5.5%Two Seven O — 2.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Two Seven O2.7%Bobrovsky — 2.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Bobrovsky2.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Outfielder27.2%1.6/1
Schwarzenegger21.8%2.5/1
Oscar'S Hope15.6%4.5/1
Rebel With A Cause14.2%6/1
Throckmorton10.7%8/1
Yukon Striker5.5%12/1
Two Seven O2.7%20/1
Bobrovsky2.3%20/1
🌧️ Off-track: 243678
🎯 Longshots: 43651872
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $110,000
Win:8Joy Of Life (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -27%
Place:9It's The Law (5/1) 14% · fair 6-1
Show:5Candy Illusion (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:1Pearl Lake (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -29%, 13Epic Dawn (9/2) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -57%, 2Palestra (6/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -60%, 12Babylon Sister (8/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -51%
Rest of field:7Where's The Law (20/1) 5% · fair 18-1, 11Mayflower Girl (15/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -31%, 3La Noche Negra (10/1) 4% · fair 47-2 underlay -57%, 14Winter White (8/1) 4% · fair 25-1 underlay -68%, 10Won'tcatchmecryan (20/1) 3% · fair 67-2 underlay -40%, 4Hot Fries (15/1) 3% · fair 67-2 underlay -55%, 6Dustinthewin (30/1) 1% · fair 227-2 underlay -74%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Joy Of Life — 17.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Joy Of Life17.2% ◀It'S The Law — 14.2% win probability, morning line 5/1It'S The Law14.2%Candy Illusion — 13.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Candy Illusion13.0%Pearl Lake — 10.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Pearl Lake10.6%Epic Dawn — 8.7% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Epic Dawn8.7%Palestra — 6.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Palestra6.2%Babylon Sister — 5.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Babylon Sister5.8%Where'S The Law — 5.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Where'S The Law5.3%Mayflower Girl — 4.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Mayflower Girl4.4%La Noche Negra — 4.1% win probability, morning line 10/1La Noche Negra4.1%Winter White — 3.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Winter White3.8%Won'Tcatchmecryan — 2.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Won'Tcatchmecryan2.9%Hot Fries — 2.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Hot Fries2.9%Dustinthewin — 0.9% win probability, morning line 30/1Dustinthewin0.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Joy Of Life17.2%3.5/1
It'S The Law14.2%5/1
Candy Illusion13.0%6/1
Pearl Lake10.6%6/1
Epic Dawn8.7%4.5/1
Palestra6.2%6/1
Babylon Sister5.8%8/1
Where'S The Law5.3%20/1
Mayflower Girl4.4%15/1
La Noche Negra4.1%10/1
Winter White3.8%8/1
Won'Tcatchmecryan2.9%20/1
Hot Fries2.9%15/1
Dustinthewin0.9%30/1
🌧️ Off-track: 8951132
🎯 Longshots: 8134511710122913146
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #9, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $150,000
Win:2Highway Robber (3/1) 31% · fair 5-2 overlay +33%
Place:9Facteur Cheval (6/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Show:12Taking Candy (5/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -41%
Other contenders:7Fort Washington (10/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 1Funtastic Again (9/2) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -60%, 5Salamis (8/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -44%, 11Poster (8/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -47%
Rest of field:6Smokey Mandate (20/1) 3% · fair 77-2 underlay -48%, 4Giocoso (20/1) 2% · fair 83-2 underlay -52%, 3Anegada (20/1) 2% · fair 54-1 underlay -63%, 8Noises Off (20/1) 2% · fair 115-2 underlay -65%, 10Ancient Rome (30/1) 2% · fair 127-2 underlay -53%, 13Tonka Warrior (20/1) 1% · fair 161-2 underlay -75%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Highway Robber — 30.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Highway Robber30.7% ◀Facteur Cheval — 16.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Facteur Cheval16.8%Taking Candy — 10.6% win probability, morning line 5/1Taking Candy10.6%Fort Washington — 9.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Fort Washington9.9%Funtastic Again — 8.1% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Funtastic Again8.1%Salamis — 6.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Salamis6.5%Poster — 6.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Poster6.2%Smokey Mandate — 2.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Smokey Mandate2.5%Giocoso — 2.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Giocoso2.3%Anegada — 1.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Anegada1.8%Noises Off — 1.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Noises Off1.7%Ancient Rome — 1.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Ancient Rome1.5%Tonka Warrior — 1.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Tonka Warrior1.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Highway Robber30.7%3/1
Facteur Cheval16.8%6/1
Taking Candy10.6%5/1
Fort Washington9.9%10/1
Funtastic Again8.1%4.5/1
Salamis6.5%8/1
Poster6.2%8/1
Smokey Mandate2.5%20/1
Giocoso2.3%20/1
Anegada1.8%20/1
Noises Off1.7%20/1
Ancient Rome1.5%30/1
Tonka Warrior1.2%20/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHighway Robber: model 30.7% vs market 18.9% (+11.8 points)Highway Robber+11.8Facteur Cheval: model 16.8% vs market 10.8% (+6.0 points)Facteur Cheval+6.0Taking Candy: model 10.6% vs market 12.6% (-2.0 points)Taking Candy-2.0Fort Washington: model 9.9% vs market 6.9% (+3.1 points)Fort Washington+3.1Funtastic Again: model 8.1% vs market 13.7% (-5.6 points)Funtastic Again-5.6Salamis: model 6.5% vs market 8.4% (-1.9 points)Salamis-1.9Poster: model 6.2% vs market 8.4% (-2.2 points)Poster-2.2Smokey Mandate: model 2.5% vs market 3.6% (-1.0 points)Smokey Mandate-1.0Giocoso: model 2.3% vs market 3.6% (-1.3 points)Giocoso-1.3Anegada: model 1.8% vs market 3.6% (-1.8 points)Anegada-1.8Noises Off: model 1.7% vs market 3.6% (-1.9 points)Noises Off-1.9Ancient Rome: model 1.5% vs market 2.4% (-0.9 points)Ancient Rome-0.9Tonka Warrior: model 1.2% vs market 3.6% (-2.4 points)Tonka Warrior-2.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Highway Robber30.7%18.9%+11.8
Facteur Cheval16.8%10.8%+6.0
Taking Candy10.6%12.6%-2.0
Fort Washington9.9%6.9%+3.1
Funtastic Again8.1%13.7%-5.6
Salamis6.5%8.4%-1.9
Poster6.2%8.4%-2.2
Smokey Mandate2.5%3.6%-1.0
Giocoso2.3%3.6%-1.3
Anegada1.8%3.6%-1.8
Noises Off1.7%3.6%-1.9
Ancient Rome1.5%2.4%-0.9
Tonka Warrior1.2%3.6%-2.4
🌧️ Off-track: 61135112
🎯 Longshots: 25712461118133109
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #9, #12, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:1Classic Cause (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Place:15Phantom Slayer (9/2) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -34%
Show:2D Bigalow (4/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -51%
Other contenders:16Bourbonkoma (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -28%, 3Terre Haute (5/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -60%, 5Tapit's Gunner (6/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -60%, 11Can't Stop Willis (10/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -38%, 9Stoic Sage (8/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -57%
Rest of field:8Life Boat (10/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -54%, 6Mayweather (15/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -43%, 14Wavefront (15/1) 3% · fair 59-2 underlay -50%, 4Greystar (15/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -53%, 12Camino (20/1) 3% · fair 71-2 underlay -43%, 7Fast Jimmy (20/1) 3% · fair 73-2 underlay -45%, 13Page Two (20/1) 2% · fair 97-2 underlay -59%, 10Tuxedo Park (30/1) 1% · fair 139-2 underlay -57%
Race 10 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Classic Cause — 17.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Classic Cause17.9% ◀Phantom Slayer — 12.7% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Phantom Slayer12.7%D Bigalow — 10.9% win probability, morning line 4/1D Bigalow10.9%Bourbonkoma — 10.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Bourbonkoma10.7%Terre Haute — 7.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Terre Haute7.5%Tapit'S Gunner — 6.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Tapit'S Gunner6.2%Can'T Stop Willis — 5.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Can'T Stop Willis5.8%Stoic Sage — 5.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Stoic Sage5.1%Life Boat — 4.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Life Boat4.4%Mayweather — 3.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Mayweather3.7%Wavefront — 3.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Wavefront3.3%Greystar — 3.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Greystar3.0%Camino — 2.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Camino2.8%Fast Jimmy — 2.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Fast Jimmy2.7%Page Two — 2.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Page Two2.0%Tuxedo Park — 1.4% win probability, morning line 30/1Tuxedo Park1.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Classic Cause17.9%3.5/1
Phantom Slayer12.7%4.5/1
D Bigalow10.9%4/1
Bourbonkoma10.7%6/1
Terre Haute7.5%5/1
Tapit'S Gunner6.2%6/1
Can'T Stop Willis5.8%10/1
Stoic Sage5.1%8/1
Life Boat4.4%10/1
Mayweather3.7%15/1
Wavefront3.3%15/1
Greystar3.0%15/1
Camino2.8%20/1
Fast Jimmy2.7%20/1
Page Two2.0%20/1
Tuxedo Park1.4%30/1
Race 10 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherClassic Cause: model 17.9% vs market 13.0% (+4.9 points)Classic Cause+4.9Phantom Slayer: model 12.7% vs market 10.6% (+2.1 points)Phantom Slayer+2.1D Bigalow: model 10.9% vs market 11.7% (-0.8 points)D Bigalow-0.8Bourbonkoma: model 10.7% vs market 8.3% (+2.3 points)Bourbonkoma+2.3Terre Haute: model 7.5% vs market 9.7% (-2.3 points)Terre Haute-2.3Tapit'S Gunner: model 6.2% vs market 8.3% (-2.1 points)Tapit'S Gunner-2.1Can'T Stop Willis: model 5.8% vs market 5.3% (+0.5 points)Can'T Stop Willis+0.5Stoic Sage: model 5.1% vs market 6.5% (-1.4 points)Stoic Sage-1.4Life Boat: model 4.4% vs market 5.3% (-0.9 points)Life Boat-0.9Mayweather: model 3.7% vs market 3.7% (+0.0 points)Mayweather+0.0Wavefront: model 3.3% vs market 3.7% (-0.4 points)Wavefront-0.4Greystar: model 3.0% vs market 3.7% (-0.6 points)Greystar-0.6Camino: model 2.8% vs market 2.8% (-0.0 points)Camino-0.0Fast Jimmy: model 2.7% vs market 2.8% (-0.1 points)Fast Jimmy-0.1Page Two: model 2.0% vs market 2.8% (-0.8 points)Page Two-0.8Tuxedo Park: model 1.4% vs market 1.9% (-0.5 points)Tuxedo Park-0.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Classic Cause17.9%13.0%+4.9
Phantom Slayer12.7%10.6%+2.1
D Bigalow10.9%11.7%-0.8
Bourbonkoma10.7%8.3%+2.3
Terre Haute7.5%9.7%-2.3
Tapit'S Gunner6.2%8.3%-2.1
Can'T Stop Willis5.8%5.3%+0.5
Stoic Sage5.1%6.5%-1.4
Life Boat4.4%5.3%-0.9
Mayweather3.7%3.7%+0.0
Wavefront3.3%3.7%-0.4
Greystar3.0%3.7%-0.6
Camino2.8%2.8%-0.0
Fast Jimmy2.7%2.8%-0.1
Page Two2.0%2.8%-0.8
Tuxedo Park1.4%1.9%-0.5
🌧️ Off-track: 16210794
🎯 Longshots: 12116910241515816371314
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #15, #2, #16  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Keeneland Race Course — average winning payout

What a $2 win bet returned WHEN THE PICK WON. 128 graded races at Keeneland Race Course, 2026-04-03 to 2026-10-04.

$0$2$3$5$7Our top pick: $5.31 from 32 racesOur top pick$5.31Morning-line favourite: $4.71 from 32 racesMorning-line favourite$4.71

This is the size of a winning payout, not a measure of profit — a pick that wins less often at a longer price can average more per winner and still lose money over the month. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupAverage payoutWinners
Our top pick$5.3132
Morning-line favourite$4.7132
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $63,000
Win:2Vissino (8/5)
Place:5Braums Run (8/1)
Show:1Detention (3/1)
Other contenders:4Slickback (9/5), 7Sargent Bilko (7/2)
Rest of field:6Mr. Fete (15/1), 3Ten Mile House (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 314276
🎯 Longshots: 2541763
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $85,000
Win:8Touch Money (9/2)
Place:5Cavalry Call (7/2)
Show:1Soap Note (5/1)
Other contenders:2Divine Truth (6/1), 3Mitole Joe (30/1), 6Double Arrow (9/2)
Rest of field:9Glen Road (8/1), 10El Gran Ruchacha (12/1), 4Silversary (12/1), 7Prince Of Tides (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 851236
🎯 Longshots: 51283961074
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $49,000
Win:1Final Thoughts (2/1)
Place:7Bird The Legend (7/2)
Show:8Da Prince Is Right (3/1)
Other contenders:2Surfin' M (6/1), 9Fight The Power (15/1), 6Sotto Mo (20/1)
Rest of field:4Kenwood Street (10/1), 3Roadswitcher (12/1), 5Romantic Lead (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 871465
🎯 Longshots: 178246935
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $50,000
Win:1Magic Seeker (15/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:4Roughnthepassenger (7/2)
Show:8Dancewhenyoucan (3/1)
Other contenders:6Shanett (10/1), 9Danzig's Dora (9/2), 11Ashkenazi (8/1), 3Ides Of Demarch (10/1)
Rest of field:7Super Costly (15/1), 5Zafyre (12/1), 10Nueva Luna (15/1), 2Dip Fantasia (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1411657
🎯 Longshots: 6113874529101
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #8, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $53,000
Win:9Juana Margarita (3/1)
Place:5Princess Chanty (9/2)
Show:16Maple Ridge (8/1)
Other contenders:3Oro Estrella (8/1), 2Hips Of A Lady (15/1), 15Opalite Dust (20/1), 12Dagny Taggart (5/1), 1Amavida (20/1)
Rest of field:11Fan's Choice (20/1), 7Aloha Magic (15/1), 13Lily's Revenge (12/1), 14Bride (20/1), 10Riding Coattails (6/1), 6Aloha Kim (30/1), 4Curlin's Court (10/1), 8Livelaughloy (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 315512117
🎯 Longshots: 16391215112107135141648
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #5, #16, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $63,000
Win:6Freaks Go (7/2)
Place:1Bourbon Notes (6/1)
Show:8Ships Inn (3/1)
Other contenders:2Quick To Charm (4/1), 7Bet The Gray (9/2), 5Miss Elle (5/1)
Rest of field:4Scythia (15/1), 3Lady Valor (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 867351
🎯 Longshots: 86137245
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $140,000
Win:4Outfielder (8/5)
Place:3Schwarzenegger (5/2)
Show:5Throckmorton (8/1)
Other contenders:7Oscar's Hope (9/2), 6Yukon Striker (12/1), 2Rebel With A Cause (6/1)
Rest of field:8Bobrovsky (20/1), 1Two Seven O (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 243768
🎯 Longshots: 43651872
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $110,000
Win:8Joy Of Life (7/2)
Place:3La Noche Negra (10/1)
Show:1Pearl Lake (6/1)
Other contenders:5Candy Illusion (6/1), 10Won'tcatchmecryan (20/1), 11Mayflower Girl (15/1), 4Hot Fries (15/1)
Rest of field:7Where's The Law (20/1), 12Babylon Sister (8/1), 2Palestra (6/1), 9It's The Law (5/1), 13Epic Dawn (9/2), 14Winter White (8/1), 6Dustinthewin (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 81531011
🎯 Longshots: 8134511710122913146
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $150,000
Win:12Taking Candy (5/1)
Place:2Highway Robber (3/1)
Show:9Facteur Cheval (6/1)
Other contenders:1Funtastic Again (9/2), 5Salamis (8/1), 7Fort Washington (10/1), 4Giocoso (20/1)
Rest of field:10Ancient Rome (30/1), 11Poster (8/1), 6Smokey Mandate (20/1), 8Noises Off (20/1), 13Tonka Warrior (20/1), 3Anegada (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 16512132
🎯 Longshots: 25712461118133109
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #2, #9, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:5Tapit's Gunner (6/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:15Phantom Slayer (9/2)
Show:2D Bigalow (4/1)
Other contenders:3Terre Haute (5/1), 16Bourbonkoma (6/1), 8Life Boat (10/1), 6Mayweather (15/1), 10Tuxedo Park (30/1)
Rest of field:1Classic Cause (7/2), 11Can't Stop Willis (10/1), 9Stoic Sage (8/1), 12Camino (20/1), 4Greystar (15/1), 7Fast Jimmy (20/1), 13Page Two (20/1), 14Wavefront (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 162515108
🎯 Longshots: 12116910241515816371314
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #15, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #2 over #7 ($1 straight; box #2-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #4, #1, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
Race 2AI Exacta: #1 over #5 ($1 straight; box #1-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #1, #5, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #1 over #8 ($1 straight; box #1-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #1, #8, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #8 over #4 ($1 straight; box #8-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #4, #6, #11 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #9 over #5 ($1 straight; box #9-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #9 over #5, #3, #16 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #8 over #6 ($1 straight; box #8-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #8, #1, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #4 over #3 ($1 straight; box #4-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #3, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #8 over #1 ($1 straight; box #8-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #1, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #2 over #12 ($1 straight; box #2-#12 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #9, #12, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 10AI Exacta: #2 over #15 ($1 straight; box #2-#15 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #3, #15, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.40 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
1010Tuxedo Park ⚠ low confidence / high risk (maiden, 20-1 or longer)30/1—6.4%+103.0%0.86%$0.86
46Shanett10/1—14.1%+58.2%1.46%$1.46
36Sotto Mo20/1—7.3%+57.3%0.72%$0.72
106Mayweather15/1—9.0%+47.1%0.78%$0.78
1012Camino ⚠ low confidence / high risk (maiden, 20-1 or longer)20/1—6.7%+44.0%0.55%$0.55
23Mitole Joe ⚠ low confidence / high risk (maiden, 20-1 or longer)30/1—4.5%+42.2%0.35%$0.35
51Amavida ⚠ low confidence / high risk (maiden, 20-1 or longer)20/1—6.6%+41.7%0.52%$0.52
511Fan'S Choice ⚠ low confidence / high risk (maiden, 20-1 or longer)20/1—6.0%+28.2%0.35%$0.35
87Where'S The Law ⚠ low confidence / high risk (maiden, 20-1 or longer)20/1—6.0%+27.5%0.34%$0.34
910Ancient Rome30/1—3.9%+22.9%0.19%$0.19
71Two Seven O20/1—5.5%+17.2%0.21%$0.21
52Hips Of A Lady15/1—7.2%+15.8%0.26%$0.26
58Livelaughloy ⚠ low confidence / high risk (maiden, 20-1 or longer)20/1—5.5%+15.7%0.20%$0.20
93Anegada20/1—5.4%+14.6%0.18%$0.18
810Won'Tcatchmecryan ⚠ low confidence / high risk (maiden, 20-1 or longer)20/1—5.2%+10.8%0.13%$0.13
TOTAL across 15 plays:7.1%$7.11
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $63,000
Win:2Vissino (8/5)
Place:4Slickback (9/5)
Show:1Detention (3/1)
Other contenders:7Sargent Bilko (7/2), 5Braums Run (8/1)
Rest of field:3Ten Mile House (20/1), 6Mr. Fete (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 431276
🎯 Longshots: 2541763
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $85,000
Win:1Soap Note (5/1)
Place:8Touch Money (9/2)
Show:6Double Arrow (9/2)
Other contenders:2Divine Truth (6/1), 5Cavalry Call (7/2), 10El Gran Ruchacha (12/1)
Rest of field:9Glen Road (8/1), 4Silversary (12/1), 7Prince Of Tides (15/1), 3Mitole Joe (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1862510
🎯 Longshots: 51283961074
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $49,000
Win:1Final Thoughts (2/1)
Place:7Bird The Legend (7/2)
Show:8Da Prince Is Right (3/1)
Other contenders:2Surfin' M (6/1), 4Kenwood Street (10/1), 9Fight The Power (15/1)
Rest of field:6Sotto Mo (20/1), 3Roadswitcher (12/1), 5Romantic Lead (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 871462
🎯 Longshots: 178246935
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $50,000
Win:6Shanett (10/1)
Place:8Dancewhenyoucan (3/1)
Show:1Magic Seeker (15/1)
Other contenders:9Danzig's Dora (9/2), 4Roughnthepassenger (7/2), 3Ides Of Demarch (10/1), 11Ashkenazi (8/1)
Rest of field:2Dip Fantasia (20/1), 7Super Costly (15/1), 10Nueva Luna (15/1), 5Zafyre (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6148117
🎯 Longshots: 6113874529101
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #1, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $53,000
Win:9Juana Margarita (3/1)
Place:1Amavida (20/1)
Show:3Oro Estrella (8/1)
Other contenders:5Princess Chanty (9/2), 16Maple Ridge (8/1), 12Dagny Taggart (5/1), 10Riding Coattails (6/1), 15Opalite Dust (20/1)
Rest of field:13Lily's Revenge (12/1), 4Curlin's Court (10/1), 8Livelaughloy (20/1), 2Hips Of A Lady (15/1), 11Fan's Choice (20/1), 7Aloha Magic (15/1), 14Bride (20/1), 6Aloha Kim (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3121051513
🎯 Longshots: 16391215112107135141648
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #1, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $63,000
Win:8Ships Inn (3/1)
Place:6Freaks Go (7/2)
Show:1Bourbon Notes (6/1)
Other contenders:7Bet The Gray (9/2), 2Quick To Charm (4/1), 5Miss Elle (5/1)
Rest of field:4Scythia (15/1), 3Lady Valor (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 867152
🎯 Longshots: 86137245
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #6, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $140,000
Win:7Oscar's Hope (9/2)
Place:4Outfielder (8/5)
Show:2Rebel With A Cause (6/1)
Other contenders:3Schwarzenegger (5/2), 5Throckmorton (8/1), 6Yukon Striker (12/1)
Rest of field:1Two Seven O (20/1), 8Bobrovsky (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 247368
🎯 Longshots: 43651872
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $110,000
Win:8Joy Of Life (7/2)
Place:1Pearl Lake (6/1)
Show:3La Noche Negra (10/1)
Other contenders:13Epic Dawn (9/2), 9It's The Law (5/1), 5Candy Illusion (6/1), 12Babylon Sister (8/1)
Rest of field:2Palestra (6/1), 7Where's The Law (20/1), 10Won'tcatchmecryan (20/1), 4Hot Fries (15/1), 11Mayflower Girl (15/1), 14Winter White (8/1), 6Dustinthewin (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8113935
🎯 Longshots: 8134511710122913146
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #3, #13  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $150,000
Win:12Taking Candy (5/1)
Place:2Highway Robber (3/1)
Show:1Funtastic Again (9/2)
Other contenders:5Salamis (8/1), 6Smokey Mandate (20/1), 4Giocoso (20/1), 7Fort Washington (10/1)
Rest of field:11Poster (8/1), 9Facteur Cheval (6/1), 3Anegada (20/1), 8Noises Off (20/1), 13Tonka Warrior (20/1), 10Ancient Rome (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 16122513
🎯 Longshots: 25712461118133109
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #2, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:2D Bigalow (4/1)
Place:15Phantom Slayer (9/2)
Show:11Can't Stop Willis (10/1)
Other contenders:3Terre Haute (5/1), 12Camino (20/1), 5Tapit's Gunner (6/1), 9Stoic Sage (8/1), 1Classic Cause (7/2)
Rest of field:6Mayweather (15/1), 8Life Boat (10/1), 16Bourbonkoma (6/1), 4Greystar (15/1), 10Tuxedo Park (30/1), 14Wavefront (15/1), 7Fast Jimmy (20/1), 13Page Two (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 216915125
🎯 Longshots: 12116910241515816371314
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #15, #11, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $63,000
Win:2Vissino (8/5)
Place:4Slickback (9/5)
Show:1Detention (3/1)
Other contenders:7Sargent Bilko (7/2), 5Braums Run (8/1)
Rest of field:6Mr. Fete (15/1), 3Ten Mile House (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 341276
🎯 Longshots: 2541763
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · playable
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $85,000
Win:8Touch Money (9/2)
Place:1Soap Note (5/1)
Show:5Cavalry Call (7/2)
Other contenders:2Divine Truth (6/1), 3Mitole Joe (30/1), 6Double Arrow (9/2)
Rest of field:9Glen Road (8/1), 10El Gran Ruchacha (12/1), 7Prince Of Tides (15/1), 4Silversary (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 815236
🎯 Longshots: 51283961074
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $49,000
Win:7Bird The Legend (7/2)
Place:1Final Thoughts (2/1)
Show:8Da Prince Is Right (3/1)
Other contenders:2Surfin' M (6/1), 4Kenwood Street (10/1), 3Roadswitcher (12/1)
Rest of field:6Sotto Mo (20/1), 9Fight The Power (15/1), 5Romantic Lead (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 871465
🎯 Longshots: 178246935
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $50,000
Win:8Dancewhenyoucan (3/1)
Place:4Roughnthepassenger (7/2)
Show:6Shanett (10/1)
Other contenders:11Ashkenazi (8/1), 9Danzig's Dora (9/2), 3Ides Of Demarch (10/1), 1Magic Seeker (15/1)
Rest of field:5Zafyre (12/1), 7Super Costly (15/1), 2Dip Fantasia (20/1), 10Nueva Luna (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4611851
🎯 Longshots: 6113874529101
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #6, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $53,000
Win:9Juana Margarita (3/1)
Place:5Princess Chanty (9/2)
Show:3Oro Estrella (8/1)
Other contenders:16Maple Ridge (8/1), 2Hips Of A Lady (15/1), 11Fan's Choice (20/1), 15Opalite Dust (20/1), 12Dagny Taggart (5/1)
Rest of field:1Amavida (20/1), 7Aloha Magic (15/1), 13Lily's Revenge (12/1), 14Bride (20/1), 10Riding Coattails (6/1), 4Curlin's Court (10/1), 8Livelaughloy (20/1), 6Aloha Kim (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 351115127
🎯 Longshots: 16391215112107135141648
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #5, #3, #16  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $63,000
Win:6Freaks Go (7/2)
Place:8Ships Inn (3/1)
Show:1Bourbon Notes (6/1)
Other contenders:7Bet The Gray (9/2), 2Quick To Charm (4/1), 5Miss Elle (5/1)
Rest of field:4Scythia (15/1), 3Lady Valor (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 687152
🎯 Longshots: 86137245
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $140,000
Win:4Outfielder (8/5)
Place:3Schwarzenegger (5/2)
Show:7Oscar's Hope (9/2)
Other contenders:2Rebel With A Cause (6/1), 5Throckmorton (8/1), 6Yukon Striker (12/1)
Rest of field:1Two Seven O (20/1), 8Bobrovsky (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 243768
🎯 Longshots: 43651872
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $110,000
Win:8Joy Of Life (7/2)
Place:1Pearl Lake (6/1)
Show:3La Noche Negra (10/1)
Other contenders:5Candy Illusion (6/1), 10Won'tcatchmecryan (20/1), 11Mayflower Girl (15/1), 4Hot Fries (15/1)
Rest of field:7Where's The Law (20/1), 9It's The Law (5/1), 2Palestra (6/1), 12Babylon Sister (8/1), 13Epic Dawn (9/2), 14Winter White (8/1), 6Dustinthewin (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 81531011
🎯 Longshots: 8134511710122913146
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $150,000
Win:2Highway Robber (3/1)
Place:9Facteur Cheval (6/1)
Show:12Taking Candy (5/1)
Other contenders:1Funtastic Again (9/2), 7Fort Washington (10/1), 5Salamis (8/1), 4Giocoso (20/1)
Rest of field:6Smokey Mandate (20/1), 11Poster (8/1), 13Tonka Warrior (20/1), 8Noises Off (20/1), 10Ancient Rome (30/1), 3Anegada (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1629125
🎯 Longshots: 25712461118133109
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #9, #12, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $48,000
Win:2D Bigalow (4/1)
Place:3Terre Haute (5/1)
Show:15Phantom Slayer (9/2)
Other contenders:1Classic Cause (7/2), 16Bourbonkoma (6/1), 5Tapit's Gunner (6/1), 6Mayweather (15/1), 11Can't Stop Willis (10/1)
Rest of field:8Life Boat (10/1), 12Camino (20/1), 9Stoic Sage (8/1), 4Greystar (15/1), 10Tuxedo Park (30/1), 7Fast Jimmy (20/1), 14Wavefront (15/1), 13Page Two (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 162151109
🎯 Longshots: 12116910241515816371314
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #15, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #2,#4,#7 (73%) / R2: #6,#5,#8 (48%) / R3: #1,#8,#7 (74%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 26%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #6,#5,#8 (48%) / R3: #1,#8,#7 (74%) / R4: #4,#8,#6 (61%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #1,#8,#7 (74%) / R4: #4,#8,#6 (61%) / R5: #9,#12,#16 (44%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 20%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #6,#8,#7 (60%) / R7: #4,#3,#7 (65%) / R8: #8,#9,#5 (44%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #2,#4,#7 (73%) / R2: #6,#5,#8 (48%) / R3: #1,#8,#7 (74%) / R4: #4,#8,#6 (61%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 16%
Pick 4 R3-6R3: #1,#8,#7 (74%) / R4: #4,#8,#6 (61%) / R5: #9,#12,#16 (44%) / R6: #6,#8,#7 (60%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 12%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ALOHA KIMALOHA MAGICAMAVIDAANCIENT ROMEANEGADA
BABYLON SISTERBET THE GRAYBIRD THE LEGENDBOBROVSKYBOURBON NOTES
BRAUMS RUNBRIDECAMINOCAN'T STOP WILLISCANDY ILLUSION
CLASSIC CAUSECURLIN'S COURTD BIGALOWDA PRINCE IS RIGHTDAGNY TAGGART
DANZIG'S DORADETENTIONDIP FANTASIADIVINE TRUTHDOUBLE ARROW
EL GRAN RUCHACHAEPIC DAWNFACTEUR CHEVALFAN'S CHOICEFAST JIMMY
FINAL THOUGHTSFORT WASHINGTONFREAKS GOFUNTASTIC AGAINGIOCOSO
GREYSTARHIGHWAY ROBBERHIPS OF A LADYHOT FRIESIDES OF DEMARCH
JOY OF LIFEJUANA MARGARITAKENWOOD STREETLA NOCHE NEGRALADY VALOR
LILY'S REVENGELIVELAUGHLOYMAGIC SEEKERMAPLE RIDGEMAYFLOWER GIRL
MISS ELLEMITOLE JOEMR. FETENOISES OFFNUEVA LUNA
ORO ESTRELLAOSCAR'S HOPEOUTFIELDERPAGE TWOPALESTRA
PHANTOM SLAYERPOSTERPRINCE OF TIDESPRINCESS CHANTYQUICK TO CHARM
RIDING COATTAILSROADSWITCHERROMANTIC LEADROUGHNTHEPASSENGERSALAMIS
SCHWARZENEGGERSCYTHIASHANETTSHIPS INNSILVERSARY
SMOKEY MANDATESOAP NOTESOTTO MOSTOIC SAGESUPER COSTLY
TAKING CANDYTAPIT'S GUNNERTEN MILE HOUSETERRE HAUTETHROCKMORTON
TOUCH MONEYTUXEDO PARKTWO SEVEN OVISSINOWAVEFRONT
WINTER WHITEWON'TCATCHMECRYANYUKON STRIKERZAFYRE

 


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