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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Laurel Park, November 14, 2026

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AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied

Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. In maiden races, where late money has the best record, Algo 2's morning pick follows the live betting favourite once the pool is open. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.

TrackRaceModelNew Top PickWhy
LRL1Model Weight set 2#4 – House Of David4 scratch(es)
LRL8Model Algo 1#6 – Steel The Moment2 scratch(es)
LRL8Model Algo 3 (Win Prob)#1 – Lux2 scratch(es)
LRL8Model Weight set 2#1 – Lux2 scratch(es)
LRL8Model Weight set 3#1 – Lux2 scratch(es)
LRL10Model Algo 1#2 – Atlantic Cat1 scratch(es)
LRL10Model Algo 2 (Ensemble)#2 – Atlantic Cat1 scratch(es)
LRL10Model Algo 3 (Win Prob)#2 – Atlantic Cat1 scratch(es)
LRL10Model Weight set 3#2 – Atlantic Cat1 scratch(es)

Plays voided by scratches — these published value plays are officially scratched; win bets on them are refunds, so strike them from your card:

Where the experts back our strongest pick today

In 3 of today's 10 races, the published handicappers landed on the same horse as Algo 2, our best-performing model. Over the last 90 days (4,777 graded races), the races where they agreed won 37.8% of the time against 29.4% where they did not.

Today's agreement races — LRL 5, 9, 10.

Which horse the two agree on is part of Algo 2, included with Insider and above. The race numbers above are free to everyone: if you are playing these races, you now know the experts and our strongest model are pointing the same way.


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $24,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:14Danner (2/1)
Place:8Notion In Motion (9/5)
Show:3Regency Tale (5/2)
Other contenders:16Saltwater Crew (7/2), 9M D Fieldstone (7/2), 4House Of David (4/1), 2Beautiful Quality (10/1), 15Mantua Man (8/1)
Rest of field:7Oath And Honour (15/1), 5Avigliano (12/1), 1Bright Time (20/1), 12Teddy P (20/1), 6Injustice (20/1), 10Irish Divo (20/1), 13Canadian Dangler (20/1), 11Band Tour (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 14831694
🎯 Longshots: 81431621549571126101311
🎫 Trifecta play: #14 over #8, #3, #16  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · HO · Purse $29,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Hurry Hurry (2/1)
Place:1Majestic Blue (4/1)
Show:7Real Macho (9/2)
Other contenders:4Secret Zipper (6/1), 5Cap Com (6/1), 3Brindano (10/1)
Rest of field:8Roll On Jesse (10/1), 6Crossland (20/1), 9Union Fleet (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 217453
🎯 Longshots: 238175496
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $30,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Good Wishes (2/1)
Place:9Open Range (3/1)
Show:2Air Kiss (4/1)
Other contenders:14Mega Moxie (5/1), 5Panning For Gold (8/1), 16Thick But Quick (15/1), 11La Perico (10/1), 12Virginia Fab (12/1)
Rest of field:3Frazil (15/1), 15Venapoint (20/1), 6Sense The Moon (30/1), 4A. P. Class (20/1), 1Sorica (30/1), 10Tuvana (30/1), 7Liam Reward (30/1), 13Conventional (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 89214516
🎯 Longshots: 98214161151236410171513
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #9, #2, #14  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $37,000
Win:4Ayni (3/1)
Place:3Perpetual Notion (2/1)
Show:5Bubbling (5/1)
Other contenders:2Alta Vista Chapel (6/1), 12Legend's Girl (15/1), 8Ronnarock (15/1), 11Jennyfromtheblock (12/1)
Rest of field:10Janies Gotta Run (20/1), 7Jaggery (30/1), 9Lyrical Jewel (30/1), 14Soapbox (30/1), 13Playa Encanto (30/1), 1Sao Siam (30/1), 6American Steele (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 34521211
🎯 Longshots: 3412528111079146131
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $53,000
Win:9Mopo (7/5)
Place:6Cougar Cocktail (7/2)
Show:8Big Earn (6/1)
Other contenders:2Spencer Tiara (6/1), 7Rerun Table (5/1), 10Noquestionaboutit (10/1), 1Come To Mama (5/1)
Rest of field:5Quiet Confidence (10/1), 4Lady Ensign (15/1), 3For The Ladies (20/1), 11Wherever We Are (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 968721
🎯 Longshots: 9610587421311
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #6, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $49,000
Win:5World On Fire (5/2)
Place:9Daring Venture (6/1)
Show:4Jessica's Eyes (9/2)
Other contenders:6Brightshininglight (5/1), 10Marvelous Mo (10/1), 3Boastfully Irish (8/1), 12Big Bolton (10/1)
Rest of field:13Brikeli (12/1), 2Alexis Zorba (15/1), 11Thirst For Hope (30/1), 8Roommate Martin (30/1), 1Benny Havens (30/1), 7Borletti (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5946310
🎯 Longshots: 53910122641381117
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #9, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $49,000
Win:6Southern Gentleman (2/1)
Place:2Frustrated (5/2)
Show:5Winning Trip (9/2)
Other contenders:3Surgical Precision (5/1), 7Fear Nothing (12/1), 8Channel The Music (8/1)
Rest of field:4Lundi Loot (15/1), 1Mo's Glitter (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 625387
🎯 Longshots: 62185743
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $47,000
Win:6Steel The Moment (3/2)
Place:3Rocker Roller (2/1)
Show:1Lux (9/5)
Other contenders:9Mad Misty (3/1), 8Mischief Storm (12/1), 7Gypsy Style (15/1)
Rest of field:4Last Treasure (20/1), 5Justice You Say (30/1), 2Hello Hoppertunity (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 631987
🎯 Longshots: 361987524
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #1, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $100,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Waveless (9/5)
Place:3Amalfi Drive (9/2)
Show:7Especially (6/1)
Other contenders:4Dazzling Move (9/2), 6Aeolian (5/1), 9Pink Ruby (15/1), 2Doctor Abbie (20/1)
Rest of field:10Delray (15/1), 1Ivy Girl (20/1), 5Late Nite Call (30/1), 11Gold Digging Broad (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 834769
🎯 Longshots: 8379410621115
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $22,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Cool Customer (6/5)
Place:2Atlantic Cat (2/1)
Show:3Vida (6/1)
Other contenders:7Hopeygot (10/1), 1Q Got Hops (15/1), 6Louisville Liam (20/1)
Rest of field:5Billy Boy (30/1), 9Carolina Casanova (20/1), 8Ryder (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 423716
🎯 Longshots: 427319658
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:14Danner (2/1) 27% · fair 5-2 underlay -27%
Place:8Notion In Motion (9/5) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -55%
Show:3Regency Tale (5/2) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -60%
Other contenders:16Saltwater Crew (7/2) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -62%, 9M D Fieldstone (7/2) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -68%, 4House Of David (4/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -76%, 15Mantua Man (8/1) 3% · fair 28-1 underlay -71%, 2Beautiful Quality (10/1) 3% · fair 63-2 underlay -68%
Rest of field:1Bright Time (20/1) 2% · fair 93-2 underlay -57%, 5Avigliano (12/1) 2% · fair 50-1 underlay -76%, 7Oath And Honour (15/1) 2% · fair 51-1 underlay -70%, 12Teddy P (20/1) 1% · fair 153-2 underlay -74%, 6Injustice (20/1) 1% · fair 307-2 underlay -87%, 13Canadian Dangler (20/1) 0% · fair 242-1 underlay -92%, 10Irish Divo (20/1) 0% · fair 647-2 underlay -94%, 11Band Tour (30/1) 0% · fair 1013-2 underlay -94%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Danner — 26.9% win probability, morning line 2/1Danner26.9% ◀Notion In Motion — 20.2% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Notion In Motion20.2%Regency Tale — 13.8% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Regency Tale13.8%Saltwater Crew — 9.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Saltwater Crew9.7%M D Fieldstone — 8.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1M D Fieldstone8.4%House Of David — 5.7% win probability, morning line 4/1House Of David5.7%Mantua Man — 3.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Mantua Man3.5%Beautiful Quality — 3.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Beautiful Quality3.1%Bright Time — 2.1% win probability, morning line 20/1Bright Time2.1%Avigliano — 2.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Avigliano2.0%Oath And Honour — 1.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Oath And Honour1.9%Teddy P — 1.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Teddy P1.3%Injustice — 0.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Injustice0.6%Canadian Dangler — 0.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Canadian Dangler0.4%Irish Divo — 0.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Irish Divo0.3%Band Tour — 0.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Band Tour0.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Danner26.9%2/1
Notion In Motion20.2%1.8/1
Regency Tale13.8%2.5/1
Saltwater Crew9.7%3.5/1
M D Fieldstone8.4%3.5/1
House Of David5.7%4/1
Mantua Man3.5%8/1
Beautiful Quality3.1%10/1
Bright Time2.1%20/1
Avigliano2.0%12/1
Oath And Honour1.9%15/1
Teddy P1.3%20/1
Injustice0.6%20/1
Canadian Dangler0.4%20/1
Irish Divo0.3%20/1
Band Tour0.2%30/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDanner: model 26.9% vs market 14.9% (+11.9 points)Danner+11.9Notion In Motion: model 20.2% vs market 16.0% (+4.2 points)Notion In Motion+4.2Regency Tale: model 13.8% vs market 12.8% (+1.0 points)Regency Tale+1.0Saltwater Crew: model 9.7% vs market 10.0% (-0.3 points)Saltwater Crew-0.3M D Fieldstone: model 8.4% vs market 10.0% (-1.5 points)M D Fieldstone-1.5House Of David: model 5.7% vs market 9.0% (-3.3 points)House Of David-3.3Mantua Man: model 3.5% vs market 5.0% (-1.5 points)Mantua Man-1.5Beautiful Quality: model 3.1% vs market 4.1% (-1.0 points)Beautiful Quality-1.0Bright Time: model 2.1% vs market 2.1% (-0.0 points)Bright Time-0.0Avigliano: model 2.0% vs market 3.4% (-1.5 points)Avigliano-1.5Oath And Honour: model 1.9% vs market 2.8% (-0.9 points)Oath And Honour-0.9Teddy P: model 1.3% vs market 2.1% (-0.8 points)Teddy P-0.8Injustice: model 0.6% vs market 2.1% (-1.5 points)Injustice-1.5Canadian Dangler: model 0.4% vs market 2.1% (-1.7 points)Canadian Dangler-1.7Irish Divo: model 0.3% vs market 2.1% (-1.8 points)Irish Divo-1.8Band Tour: model 0.2% vs market 1.4% (-1.2 points)Band Tour-1.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Danner26.9%14.9%+11.9
Notion In Motion20.2%16.0%+4.2
Regency Tale13.8%12.8%+1.0
Saltwater Crew9.7%10.0%-0.3
M D Fieldstone8.4%10.0%-1.5
House Of David5.7%9.0%-3.3
Mantua Man3.5%5.0%-1.5
Beautiful Quality3.1%4.1%-1.0
Bright Time2.1%2.1%-0.0
Avigliano2.0%3.4%-1.5
Oath And Honour1.9%2.8%-0.9
Teddy P1.3%2.1%-0.8
Injustice0.6%2.1%-1.5
Canadian Dangler0.4%2.1%-1.7
Irish Divo0.3%2.1%-1.8
Band Tour0.2%1.4%-1.2
🌧️ Off-track: 14831694
🎯 Longshots: 81431621549571126101311
🎫 Trifecta play: #14 over #8, #3, #16  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · HO · Purse $29,000
Win:2Hurry Hurry (2/1) 29% · fair 5-2
Place:7Real Macho (9/2) 15% · fair 11-2
Show:1Majestic Blue (4/1) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -37%
Other contenders:5Cap Com (6/1) 12% · fair 7-1, 4Secret Zipper (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 3Brindano (10/1) 7% · fair 25-2
Rest of field:8Roll On Jesse (10/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -39%, 6Crossland (20/1) 3% · fair 36-1 underlay -44%, 9Union Fleet (30/1) 2% · fair 87-2 underlay -31%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Hurry Hurry — 29.0% win probability, morning line 2/1Hurry Hurry29.0% ◀Real Macho — 15.2% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Real Macho15.2%Majestic Blue — 13.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Majestic Blue13.5%Cap Com — 12.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Cap Com12.4%Secret Zipper — 11.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Secret Zipper11.7%Brindano — 7.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Brindano7.4%Roll On Jesse — 5.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Roll On Jesse5.8%Crossland — 2.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Crossland2.7%Union Fleet — 2.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Union Fleet2.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Hurry Hurry29.0%2/1
Real Macho15.2%4.5/1
Majestic Blue13.5%4/1
Cap Com12.4%6/1
Secret Zipper11.7%6/1
Brindano7.4%10/1
Roll On Jesse5.8%10/1
Crossland2.7%20/1
Union Fleet2.2%30/1
🌧️ Off-track: 271543
🎯 Longshots: 238175496
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:9Open Range (3/1) 24% · fair 3-1
Place:2Air Kiss (4/1) 19% · fair 4-1
Show:8Good Wishes (2/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -63%
Other contenders:14Mega Moxie (5/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -32%, 16Thick But Quick (15/1) 5% · fair 19-1, 5Panning For Gold (8/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -65%, 11La Perico (10/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -59%, 12Virginia Fab (12/1) 3% · fair 59-2 underlay -59%
Rest of field:3Frazil (15/1) 3% · fair 67-2 underlay -55%, 15Venapoint (20/1) 2% · fair 54-1 underlay -63%, 4A. P. Class (20/1) 2% · fair 60-1 underlay -67%, 7Liam Reward (30/1) 1% · fair 66-1 underlay -55%, 13Conventional (30/1) 1% · fair 67-1 underlay -55%, 10Tuvana (30/1) 1% · fair 74-1 underlay -60%, 6Sense The Moon (30/1) 1% · fair 76-1 underlay -60%, 1Sorica (30/1) 1% · fair 195-2 underlay -69%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Open Range — 23.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Open Range23.6% ◀Air Kiss — 19.5% win probability, morning line 4/1Air Kiss19.5%Good Wishes — 15.5% win probability, morning line 2/1Good Wishes15.5%Mega Moxie — 12.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Mega Moxie12.0%Thick But Quick — 5.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Thick But Quick5.1%Panning For Gold — 4.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Panning For Gold4.1%La Perico — 4.0% win probability, morning line 10/1La Perico4.0%Virginia Fab — 3.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Virginia Fab3.3%Frazil — 2.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Frazil2.9%Venapoint — 1.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Venapoint1.8%A. P. Class — 1.6% win probability, morning line 20/1A. P. Class1.6%Liam Reward — 1.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Liam Reward1.5%Conventional — 1.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Conventional1.5%Tuvana — 1.3% win probability, morning line 30/1Tuvana1.3%Sense The Moon — 1.3% win probability, morning line 30/1Sense The Moon1.3%Sorica — 1.0% win probability, morning line 30/1Sorica1.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Open Range23.6%3/1
Air Kiss19.5%4/1
Good Wishes15.5%2/1
Mega Moxie12.0%5/1
Thick But Quick5.1%15/1
Panning For Gold4.1%8/1
La Perico4.0%10/1
Virginia Fab3.3%12/1
Frazil2.9%15/1
Venapoint1.8%20/1
A. P. Class1.6%20/1
Liam Reward1.5%30/1
Conventional1.5%30/1
Tuvana1.3%30/1
Sense The Moon1.3%30/1
Sorica1.0%30/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherOpen Range: model 23.6% vs market 15.5% (+8.1 points)Open Range+8.1Air Kiss: model 19.5% vs market 12.4% (+7.1 points)Air Kiss+7.1Good Wishes: model 15.5% vs market 20.7% (-5.2 points)Good Wishes-5.2Mega Moxie: model 12.0% vs market 10.3% (+1.6 points)Mega Moxie+1.6Thick But Quick: model 5.1% vs market 3.9% (+1.2 points)Thick But Quick+1.2Panning For Gold: model 4.1% vs market 6.9% (-2.8 points)Panning For Gold-2.8La Perico: model 4.0% vs market 5.6% (-1.7 points)La Perico-1.7Virginia Fab: model 3.3% vs market 4.8% (-1.5 points)Virginia Fab-1.5Frazil: model 2.9% vs market 3.9% (-1.0 points)Frazil-1.0Venapoint: model 1.8% vs market 3.0% (-1.1 points)Venapoint-1.1A. P. Class: model 1.6% vs market 3.0% (-1.3 points)A. P. Class-1.3Liam Reward: model 1.5% vs market 2.0% (-0.5 points)Liam Reward-0.5Conventional: model 1.5% vs market 2.0% (-0.5 points)Conventional-0.5Tuvana: model 1.3% vs market 2.0% (-0.7 points)Tuvana-0.7Sense The Moon: model 1.3% vs market 2.0% (-0.7 points)Sense The Moon-0.7Sorica: model 1.0% vs market 2.0% (-1.0 points)Sorica-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Open Range23.6%15.5%+8.1
Air Kiss19.5%12.4%+7.1
Good Wishes15.5%20.7%-5.2
Mega Moxie12.0%10.3%+1.6
Thick But Quick5.1%3.9%+1.2
Panning For Gold4.1%6.9%-2.8
La Perico4.0%5.6%-1.7
Virginia Fab3.3%4.8%-1.5
Frazil2.9%3.9%-1.0
Venapoint1.8%3.0%-1.1
A. P. Class1.6%3.0%-1.3
Liam Reward1.5%2.0%-0.5
Conventional1.5%2.0%-0.5
Tuvana1.3%2.0%-0.7
Sense The Moon1.3%2.0%-0.7
Sorica1.0%2.0%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 98214511
🎯 Longshots: 98214161151236410171513
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #2, #8, #14  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $37,000
Win:4Ayni (3/1) 45% · fair 1-1 overlay +146%
Place:5Bubbling (5/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Show:3Perpetual Notion (2/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -71%
Other contenders:2Alta Vista Chapel (6/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -62%, 12Legend's Girl (15/1) 6% · fair 17-1, 11Jennyfromtheblock (12/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -60%, 8Ronnarock (15/1) 3% · fair 63-2 underlay -53%
Rest of field:10Janies Gotta Run (20/1) 2% · fair 50-1 underlay -60%, 7Jaggery (30/1) 1% · fair 137-2 underlay -56%, 9Lyrical Jewel (30/1) 1% · fair 75-1 underlay -60%, 6American Steele (30/1) 1% · fair 199-2 underlay -70%, 1Sao Siam (30/1) 1% · fair 209-2 underlay -71%, 13Playa Encanto (30/1) 1% · fair 217-2 underlay -72%, 14Soapbox (30/1) 1% · fair 124-1 underlay -76%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Ayni — 45.1% win probability, morning line 3/1Ayni45.1% ◀Bubbling — 16.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Bubbling16.0%Perpetual Notion — 12.8% win probability, morning line 2/1Perpetual Notion12.8%Alta Vista Chapel — 5.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Alta Vista Chapel5.9%Legend'S Girl — 5.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Legend'S Girl5.6%Jennyfromtheblock — 3.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Jennyfromtheblock3.2%Ronnarock — 3.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Ronnarock3.1%Janies Gotta Run — 2.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Janies Gotta Run2.0%Jaggery — 1.4% win probability, morning line 30/1Jaggery1.4%Lyrical Jewel — 1.3% win probability, morning line 30/1Lyrical Jewel1.3%American Steele — 1.0% win probability, morning line 30/1American Steele1.0%Sao Siam — 0.9% win probability, morning line 30/1Sao Siam0.9%Playa Encanto — 0.9% win probability, morning line 30/1Playa Encanto0.9%Soapbox — 0.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Soapbox0.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Ayni45.1%3/1
Bubbling16.0%5/1
Perpetual Notion12.8%2/1
Alta Vista Chapel5.9%6/1
Legend'S Girl5.6%15/1
Jennyfromtheblock3.2%12/1
Ronnarock3.1%15/1
Janies Gotta Run2.0%20/1
Jaggery1.4%30/1
Lyrical Jewel1.3%30/1
American Steele1.0%30/1
Sao Siam0.9%30/1
Playa Encanto0.9%30/1
Soapbox0.8%30/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherAyni: model 45.1% vs market 18.7% (+26.4 points)Ayni+26.4Bubbling: model 16.0% vs market 12.5% (+3.5 points)Bubbling+3.5Perpetual Notion: model 12.8% vs market 25.0% (-12.2 points)Perpetual Notion-12.2Alta Vista Chapel: model 5.9% vs market 10.7% (-4.8 points)Alta Vista Chapel-4.8Legend'S Girl: model 5.6% vs market 4.7% (+0.9 points)Legend'S Girl+0.9Jennyfromtheblock: model 3.2% vs market 5.8% (-2.6 points)Jennyfromtheblock-2.6Ronnarock: model 3.1% vs market 4.7% (-1.6 points)Ronnarock-1.6Janies Gotta Run: model 2.0% vs market 3.6% (-1.6 points)Janies Gotta Run-1.6Jaggery: model 1.4% vs market 2.4% (-1.0 points)Jaggery-1.0Lyrical Jewel: model 1.3% vs market 2.4% (-1.1 points)Lyrical Jewel-1.1American Steele: model 1.0% vs market 2.4% (-1.4 points)American Steele-1.4Sao Siam: model 0.9% vs market 2.4% (-1.5 points)Sao Siam-1.5Playa Encanto: model 0.9% vs market 2.4% (-1.5 points)Playa Encanto-1.5Soapbox: model 0.8% vs market 2.4% (-1.6 points)Soapbox-1.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Ayni45.1%18.7%+26.4
Bubbling16.0%12.5%+3.5
Perpetual Notion12.8%25.0%-12.2
Alta Vista Chapel5.9%10.7%-4.8
Legend'S Girl5.6%4.7%+0.9
Jennyfromtheblock3.2%5.8%-2.6
Ronnarock3.1%4.7%-1.6
Janies Gotta Run2.0%3.6%-1.6
Jaggery1.4%2.4%-1.0
Lyrical Jewel1.3%2.4%-1.1
American Steele1.0%2.4%-1.4
Sao Siam0.9%2.4%-1.5
Playa Encanto0.9%2.4%-1.5
Soapbox0.8%2.4%-1.6
🌧️ Off-track: 43521112
🎯 Longshots: 3412528111079146131
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $53,000
Win:9Mopo (7/5) 29% · fair 5-2 underlay -44%
Place:6Cougar Cocktail (7/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -43%
Show:8Big Earn (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:2Spencer Tiara (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -35%, 1Come To Mama (5/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -58%, 10Noquestionaboutit (10/1) 7% · fair 25-2, 7Rerun Table (5/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -63%
Rest of field:5Quiet Confidence (10/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -31%, 4Lady Ensign (15/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -38%, 3For The Ladies (20/1) 3% · fair 37-1 underlay -46%, 11Wherever We Are (30/1) 1% · fair 209-2 underlay -71%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Mopo — 28.7% win probability, morning line 1.4/1Mopo28.7% ◀Cougar Cocktail — 13.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Cougar Cocktail13.9%Big Earn — 11.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Big Earn11.6%Spencer Tiara — 9.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Spencer Tiara9.8%Come To Mama — 7.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Come To Mama7.7%Noquestionaboutit — 7.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Noquestionaboutit7.4%Rerun Table — 6.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Rerun Table6.9%Quiet Confidence — 6.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Quiet Confidence6.5%Lady Ensign — 4.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Lady Ensign4.0%For The Ladies — 2.6% win probability, morning line 20/1For The Ladies2.6%Wherever We Are — 0.9% win probability, morning line 30/1Wherever We Are0.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Mopo28.7%1.4/1
Cougar Cocktail13.9%3.5/1
Big Earn11.6%6/1
Spencer Tiara9.8%6/1
Come To Mama7.7%5/1
Noquestionaboutit7.4%10/1
Rerun Table6.9%5/1
Quiet Confidence6.5%10/1
Lady Ensign4.0%15/1
For The Ladies2.6%20/1
Wherever We Are0.9%30/1
🌧️ Off-track: 968127
🎯 Longshots: 9610587421311
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #6, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $49,000
Win:5World On Fire (5/2) 26% · fair 3-1
Place:4Jessica's Eyes (9/2) 15% · fair 11-2
Show:9Daring Venture (6/1) 15% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:6Brightshininglight (5/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -46%, 10Marvelous Mo (10/1) 8% · fair 11-1, 3Boastfully Irish (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -35%, 12Big Bolton (10/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -47%
Rest of field:2Alexis Zorba (15/1) 5% · fair 19-1, 13Brikeli (12/1) 4% · fair 21-1 underlay -43%, 8Roommate Martin (30/1) 2% · fair 115-2 underlay -48%, 11Thirst For Hope (30/1) 1% · fair 85-1 underlay -65%, 1Benny Havens (30/1) 1% · fair 193-2 underlay -69%, 7Borletti (30/1) 1% · fair 135-1 underlay -78%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

World On Fire — 25.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1World On Fire25.7% ◀Jessica'S Eyes — 15.1% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Jessica'S Eyes15.1%Daring Venture — 14.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Daring Venture14.5%Brightshininglight — 9.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Brightshininglight9.8%Marvelous Mo — 8.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Marvelous Mo8.3%Boastfully Irish — 7.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Boastfully Irish7.5%Big Bolton — 5.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Big Bolton5.0%Alexis Zorba — 5.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Alexis Zorba5.0%Brikeli — 4.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Brikeli4.5%Roommate Martin — 1.7% win probability, morning line 30/1Roommate Martin1.7%Thirst For Hope — 1.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Thirst For Hope1.2%Benny Havens — 1.0% win probability, morning line 30/1Benny Havens1.0%Borletti — 0.7% win probability, morning line 30/1Borletti0.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
World On Fire25.7%2.5/1
Jessica'S Eyes15.1%4.5/1
Daring Venture14.5%6/1
Brightshininglight9.8%5/1
Marvelous Mo8.3%10/1
Boastfully Irish7.5%8/1
Big Bolton5.0%10/1
Alexis Zorba5.0%15/1
Brikeli4.5%12/1
Roommate Martin1.7%30/1
Thirst For Hope1.2%30/1
Benny Havens1.0%30/1
Borletti0.7%30/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherWorld On Fire: model 25.7% vs market 21.3% (+4.4 points)World On Fire+4.4Jessica'S Eyes: model 15.1% vs market 13.6% (+1.5 points)Jessica'S Eyes+1.5Daring Venture: model 14.5% vs market 10.7% (+3.8 points)Daring Venture+3.8Brightshininglight: model 9.8% vs market 12.5% (-2.6 points)Brightshininglight-2.6Marvelous Mo: model 8.3% vs market 6.8% (+1.5 points)Marvelous Mo+1.5Boastfully Irish: model 7.5% vs market 8.3% (-0.8 points)Boastfully Irish-0.8Big Bolton: model 5.0% vs market 6.8% (-1.8 points)Big Bolton-1.8Alexis Zorba: model 5.0% vs market 4.7% (+0.3 points)Alexis Zorba+0.3Brikeli: model 4.5% vs market 5.7% (-1.2 points)Brikeli-1.2Roommate Martin: model 1.7% vs market 2.4% (-0.7 points)Roommate Martin-0.7Thirst For Hope: model 1.2% vs market 2.4% (-1.2 points)Thirst For Hope-1.2Benny Havens: model 1.0% vs market 2.4% (-1.4 points)Benny Havens-1.4Borletti: model 0.7% vs market 2.4% (-1.7 points)Borletti-1.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
World On Fire25.7%21.3%+4.4
Jessica'S Eyes15.1%13.6%+1.5
Daring Venture14.5%10.7%+3.8
Brightshininglight9.8%12.5%-2.6
Marvelous Mo8.3%6.8%+1.5
Boastfully Irish7.5%8.3%-0.8
Big Bolton5.0%6.8%-1.8
Alexis Zorba5.0%4.7%+0.3
Brikeli4.5%5.7%-1.2
Roommate Martin1.7%2.4%-0.7
Thirst For Hope1.2%2.4%-1.2
Benny Havens1.0%2.4%-1.4
Borletti0.7%2.4%-1.7
🌧️ Off-track: 5496310
🎯 Longshots: 53910122641381117
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #9, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $49,000
Win:6Southern Gentleman (2/1) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -30%
Place:5Winning Trip (9/2) 21% · fair 4-1
Show:2Frustrated (5/2) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -45%
Other contenders:3Surgical Precision (5/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 8Channel The Music (8/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -39%, 7Fear Nothing (12/1) 7% · fair 14-1
Rest of field:4Lundi Loot (15/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -30%, 1Mo's Glitter (20/1) 4% · fair 53-2
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Southern Gentleman — 26.0% win probability, morning line 2/1Southern Gentleman26.0% ◀Winning Trip — 20.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Winning Trip20.9%Frustrated — 18.0% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Frustrated18.0%Surgical Precision — 13.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Surgical Precision13.4%Channel The Music — 7.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Channel The Music7.0%Fear Nothing — 6.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Fear Nothing6.6%Lundi Loot — 4.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Lundi Loot4.5%Mo'S Glitter — 3.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Mo'S Glitter3.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Southern Gentleman26.0%2/1
Winning Trip20.9%4.5/1
Frustrated18.0%2.5/1
Surgical Precision13.4%5/1
Channel The Music7.0%8/1
Fear Nothing6.6%12/1
Lundi Loot4.5%15/1
Mo'S Glitter3.6%20/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSouthern Gentleman: model 26.0% vs market 26.3% (-0.3 points)Southern Gentleman-0.3Winning Trip: model 20.9% vs market 14.4% (+6.5 points)Winning Trip+6.5Frustrated: model 18.0% vs market 22.6% (-4.5 points)Frustrated-4.5Surgical Precision: model 13.4% vs market 13.2% (+0.2 points)Surgical Precision+0.2Channel The Music: model 7.0% vs market 8.8% (-1.7 points)Channel The Music-1.7Fear Nothing: model 6.6% vs market 6.1% (+0.5 points)Fear Nothing+0.5Lundi Loot: model 4.5% vs market 4.9% (-0.5 points)Lundi Loot-0.5Mo'S Glitter: model 3.6% vs market 3.8% (-0.1 points)Mo'S Glitter-0.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Southern Gentleman26.0%26.3%-0.3
Winning Trip20.9%14.4%+6.5
Frustrated18.0%22.6%-4.5
Surgical Precision13.4%13.2%+0.2
Channel The Music7.0%8.8%-1.7
Fear Nothing6.6%6.1%+0.5
Lundi Loot4.5%4.9%-0.5
Mo'S Glitter3.6%3.8%-0.1
🌧️ Off-track: 625387
🎯 Longshots: 62185743
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $47,000
Win:3Rocker Roller (2/1) 40% · fair 3-2 overlay +33%
Place:1Lux (9/5) 21% · fair 7-2 underlay -52%
Show:9Mad Misty (3/1) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -29%
Other contenders:6Steel The Moment (3/2) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -76%, 8Mischief Storm (12/1) 3% · fair 73-2 underlay -67%, 7Gypsy Style (15/1) 2% · fair 121-2 underlay -75%
Rest of field:2Hello Hoppertunity (20/1) 1% · fair 291-2 underlay -86%, 5Justice You Say (30/1) 1% · fair 369-2 underlay -84%, 4Last Treasure (20/1) 1% · fair 395-2 underlay -90%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Rocker Roller — 39.9% win probability, morning line 2/1Rocker Roller39.9% ◀Lux — 21.2% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Lux21.2%Mad Misty — 19.1% win probability, morning line 3/1Mad Misty19.1%Steel The Moment — 13.8% win probability, morning line 1.5/1Steel The Moment13.8%Mischief Storm — 2.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Mischief Storm2.6%Gypsy Style — 1.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Gypsy Style1.6%Hello Hoppertunity — 0.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Hello Hoppertunity0.7%Justice You Say — 0.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Justice You Say0.5%Last Treasure — 0.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Last Treasure0.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Rocker Roller39.9%2/1
Lux21.2%1.8/1
Mad Misty19.1%3/1
Steel The Moment13.8%1.5/1
Mischief Storm2.6%12/1
Gypsy Style1.6%15/1
Hello Hoppertunity0.7%20/1
Justice You Say0.5%30/1
Last Treasure0.5%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRocker Roller: model 39.9% vs market 20.7% (+19.2 points)Rocker Roller+19.2Lux: model 21.2% vs market 22.2% (-1.0 points)Lux-1.0Mad Misty: model 19.1% vs market 15.6% (+3.6 points)Mad Misty+3.6Steel The Moment: model 13.8% vs market 24.9% (-11.1 points)Steel The Moment-11.1Mischief Storm: model 2.6% vs market 4.8% (-2.1 points)Mischief Storm-2.1Gypsy Style: model 1.6% vs market 3.9% (-2.3 points)Gypsy Style-2.3Hello Hoppertunity: model 0.7% vs market 3.0% (-2.3 points)Hello Hoppertunity-2.3Justice You Say: model 0.5% vs market 2.0% (-1.5 points)Justice You Say-1.5Last Treasure: model 0.5% vs market 3.0% (-2.5 points)Last Treasure-2.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Rocker Roller39.9%20.7%+19.2
Lux21.2%22.2%-1.0
Mad Misty19.1%15.6%+3.6
Steel The Moment13.8%24.9%-11.1
Mischief Storm2.6%4.8%-2.1
Gypsy Style1.6%3.9%-2.3
Hello Hoppertunity0.7%3.0%-2.3
Justice You Say0.5%2.0%-1.5
Last Treasure0.5%3.0%-2.5
🌧️ Off-track: 316987
🎯 Longshots: 361987524
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #9, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $100,000
Win:8Waveless (9/5) 34% · fair 2-1
Place:4Dazzling Move (9/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -27%
Show:7Especially (6/1) 13% · fair 7-1
Other contenders:3Amalfi Drive (9/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -38%, 6Aeolian (5/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -33%, 9Pink Ruby (15/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -39%, 2Doctor Abbie (20/1) 3% · fair 59-2 underlay -32%
Rest of field:10Delray (15/1) 3% · fair 63-2 underlay -53%, 1Ivy Girl (20/1) 2% · fair 55-1 underlay -64%, 11Gold Digging Broad (30/1) 2% · fair 119-2 underlay -49%, 5Late Nite Call (30/1) 2% · fair 62-1 underlay -52%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Waveless — 33.9% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Waveless33.9% ◀Dazzling Move — 14.0% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Dazzling Move14.0%Especially — 12.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Especially12.9%Amalfi Drive — 12.0% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Amalfi Drive12.0%Aeolian — 11.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Aeolian11.9%Pink Ruby — 3.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Pink Ruby3.9%Doctor Abbie — 3.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Doctor Abbie3.3%Delray — 3.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Delray3.1%Ivy Girl — 1.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Ivy Girl1.8%Gold Digging Broad — 1.7% win probability, morning line 30/1Gold Digging Broad1.7%Late Nite Call — 1.6% win probability, morning line 30/1Late Nite Call1.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Waveless33.9%1.8/1
Dazzling Move14.0%4.5/1
Especially12.9%6/1
Amalfi Drive12.0%4.5/1
Aeolian11.9%5/1
Pink Ruby3.9%15/1
Doctor Abbie3.3%20/1
Delray3.1%15/1
Ivy Girl1.8%20/1
Gold Digging Broad1.7%30/1
Late Nite Call1.6%30/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherWaveless: model 33.9% vs market 27.2% (+6.8 points)Waveless+6.8Dazzling Move: model 14.0% vs market 13.8% (+0.1 points)Dazzling Move+0.1Especially: model 12.9% vs market 10.9% (+2.0 points)Especially+2.0Amalfi Drive: model 12.0% vs market 13.8% (-1.8 points)Amalfi Drive-1.8Aeolian: model 11.9% vs market 12.7% (-0.8 points)Aeolian-0.8Pink Ruby: model 3.9% vs market 4.8% (-0.8 points)Pink Ruby-0.8Doctor Abbie: model 3.3% vs market 3.6% (-0.3 points)Doctor Abbie-0.3Delray: model 3.1% vs market 4.8% (-1.7 points)Delray-1.7Ivy Girl: model 1.8% vs market 3.6% (-1.8 points)Ivy Girl-1.8Gold Digging Broad: model 1.7% vs market 2.5% (-0.8 points)Gold Digging Broad-0.8Late Nite Call: model 1.6% vs market 2.5% (-0.9 points)Late Nite Call-0.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Waveless33.9%27.2%+6.8
Dazzling Move14.0%13.8%+0.1
Especially12.9%10.9%+2.0
Amalfi Drive12.0%13.8%-1.8
Aeolian11.9%12.7%-0.8
Pink Ruby3.9%4.8%-0.8
Doctor Abbie3.3%3.6%-0.3
Delray3.1%4.8%-1.7
Ivy Girl1.8%3.6%-1.8
Gold Digging Broad1.7%2.5%-0.8
Late Nite Call1.6%2.5%-0.9
🌧️ Off-track: 843679
🎯 Longshots: 8379410621115
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:4Cool Customer (6/5) 41% · fair 3-2
Place:2Atlantic Cat (2/1) 35% · fair 2-1
Show:3Vida (6/1) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -38%
Other contenders:7Hopeygot (10/1) 8% · fair 12-1, 1Q Got Hops (15/1) 3% · fair 57-2 underlay -47%, 9Carolina Casanova (20/1) 1% · fair 72-1 underlay -72%
Rest of field:5Billy Boy (30/1) 1% · fair 98-1 underlay -69%, 6Louisville Liam (20/1) 1% · fair 229-2 underlay -82%, 8Ryder (15/1) 0% · fair 635-2 underlay -95%
Race 10 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Cool Customer — 40.6% win probability, morning line 1.2/1Cool Customer40.6% ◀Atlantic Cat — 35.4% win probability, morning line 2/1Atlantic Cat35.4%Vida — 9.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Vida9.4%Hopeygot — 7.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Hopeygot7.7%Q Got Hops — 3.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Q Got Hops3.4%Carolina Casanova — 1.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Carolina Casanova1.4%Billy Boy — 1.0% win probability, morning line 30/1Billy Boy1.0%Louisville Liam — 0.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Louisville Liam0.9%Ryder — 0.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Ryder0.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Cool Customer40.6%1.2/1
Atlantic Cat35.4%2/1
Vida9.4%6/1
Hopeygot7.7%10/1
Q Got Hops3.4%15/1
Carolina Casanova1.4%20/1
Billy Boy1.0%30/1
Louisville Liam0.9%20/1
Ryder0.3%15/1
Race 10 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCool Customer: model 40.6% vs market 35.7% (+4.9 points)Cool Customer+4.9Atlantic Cat: model 35.4% vs market 26.2% (+9.2 points)Atlantic Cat+9.2Vida: model 9.4% vs market 11.2% (-1.8 points)Vida-1.8Hopeygot: model 7.7% vs market 7.1% (+0.5 points)Hopeygot+0.5Q Got Hops: model 3.4% vs market 4.9% (-1.5 points)Q Got Hops-1.5Carolina Casanova: model 1.4% vs market 3.7% (-2.4 points)Carolina Casanova-2.4Billy Boy: model 1.0% vs market 2.5% (-1.5 points)Billy Boy-1.5Louisville Liam: model 0.9% vs market 3.7% (-2.9 points)Louisville Liam-2.9Ryder: model 0.3% vs market 4.9% (-4.6 points)Ryder-4.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Cool Customer40.6%35.7%+4.9
Atlantic Cat35.4%26.2%+9.2
Vida9.4%11.2%-1.8
Hopeygot7.7%7.1%+0.5
Q Got Hops3.4%4.9%-1.5
Carolina Casanova1.4%3.7%-2.4
Billy Boy1.0%2.5%-1.5
Louisville Liam0.9%3.7%-2.9
Ryder0.3%4.9%-4.6
🌧️ Off-track: 423718
🎯 Longshots: 427319658
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:8Notion In Motion (9/5)
Place:14Danner (2/1)
Show:16Saltwater Crew (7/2)
Other contenders:3Regency Tale (5/2), 2Beautiful Quality (10/1), 4House Of David (4/1), 9M D Fieldstone (7/2), 15Mantua Man (8/1)
Rest of field:5Avigliano (12/1), 1Bright Time (20/1), 7Oath And Honour (15/1), 12Teddy P (20/1), 6Injustice (20/1), 10Irish Divo (20/1), 11Band Tour (30/1), 13Canadian Dangler (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 81431694
🎯 Longshots: 81431621549571126101311
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #14, #16, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · HO · Purse $29,000
Win:2Hurry Hurry (2/1)
Place:1Majestic Blue (4/1)
Show:7Real Macho (9/2)
Other contenders:4Secret Zipper (6/1), 5Cap Com (6/1), 3Brindano (10/1)
Rest of field:8Roll On Jesse (10/1), 6Crossland (20/1), 9Union Fleet (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 217453
🎯 Longshots: 238175496
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:2Air Kiss (4/1)
Place:8Good Wishes (2/1)
Show:9Open Range (3/1)
Other contenders:14Mega Moxie (5/1), 12Virginia Fab (12/1), 5Panning For Gold (8/1), 16Thick But Quick (15/1), 11La Perico (10/1)
Rest of field:6Sense The Moon (30/1), 3Frazil (15/1), 4A. P. Class (20/1), 10Tuvana (30/1), 1Sorica (30/1), 15Venapoint (20/1), 13Conventional (30/1), 7Liam Reward (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 89214512
🎯 Longshots: 98214161151236410171513
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #8, #9, #14  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $37,000
Win:4Ayni (3/1)
Place:5Bubbling (5/1)
Show:3Perpetual Notion (2/1)
Other contenders:12Legend's Girl (15/1), 2Alta Vista Chapel (6/1), 8Ronnarock (15/1), 7Jaggery (30/1)
Rest of field:11Jennyfromtheblock (12/1), 10Janies Gotta Run (20/1), 9Lyrical Jewel (30/1), 14Soapbox (30/1), 6American Steele (30/1), 1Sao Siam (30/1), 13Playa Encanto (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4352128
🎯 Longshots: 3412528111079146131
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #3, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $53,000
Win:9Mopo (7/5)
Place:6Cougar Cocktail (7/2)
Show:8Big Earn (6/1)
Other contenders:5Quiet Confidence (10/1), 1Come To Mama (5/1), 2Spencer Tiara (6/1), 7Rerun Table (5/1)
Rest of field:10Noquestionaboutit (10/1), 4Lady Ensign (15/1), 3For The Ladies (20/1), 11Wherever We Are (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 961782
🎯 Longshots: 9610587421311
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #6, #8, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $49,000
Win:5World On Fire (5/2)
Place:9Daring Venture (6/1)
Show:4Jessica's Eyes (9/2)
Other contenders:6Brightshininglight (5/1), 10Marvelous Mo (10/1), 12Big Bolton (10/1), 3Boastfully Irish (8/1)
Rest of field:13Brikeli (12/1), 2Alexis Zorba (15/1), 11Thirst For Hope (30/1), 1Benny Havens (30/1), 7Borletti (30/1), 8Roommate Martin (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5469310
🎯 Longshots: 53910122641381117
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #9, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $49,000
Win:2Frustrated (5/2)
Place:6Southern Gentleman (2/1)
Show:5Winning Trip (9/2)
Other contenders:3Surgical Precision (5/1), 7Fear Nothing (12/1), 8Channel The Music (8/1)
Rest of field:4Lundi Loot (15/1), 1Mo's Glitter (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 265387
🎯 Longshots: 62185743
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $47,000
Win:3Rocker Roller (2/1)
Place:6Steel The Moment (3/2)
Show:1Lux (9/5)
Other contenders:9Mad Misty (3/1), 8Mischief Storm (12/1), 7Gypsy Style (15/1)
Rest of field:5Justice You Say (30/1), 2Hello Hoppertunity (20/1), 4Last Treasure (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 631987
🎯 Longshots: 361987524
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #1, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $100,000
Win:8Waveless (9/5)
Place:7Especially (6/1)
Show:3Amalfi Drive (9/2)
Other contenders:4Dazzling Move (9/2), 6Aeolian (5/1), 10Delray (15/1), 9Pink Ruby (15/1)
Rest of field:2Doctor Abbie (20/1), 1Ivy Girl (20/1), 11Gold Digging Broad (30/1), 5Late Nite Call (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 8346710
🎯 Longshots: 8379410621115
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:4Cool Customer (6/5)
Place:2Atlantic Cat (2/1)
Show:3Vida (6/1)
Other contenders:7Hopeygot (10/1), 1Q Got Hops (15/1), 8Ryder (15/1)
Rest of field:9Carolina Casanova (20/1), 5Billy Boy (30/1), 6Louisville Liam (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 423718
🎯 Longshots: 427319658
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #8 over #14 ($1 straight; box #8-#14 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #14, #9, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #2 over #1 ($1 straight; box #2-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #7, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #8 over #9 ($1 straight; box #8-#9 for cover)
Trifecta: #9 over #8, #14, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #5, #3, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #9 over #6 ($1 straight; box #9-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #9 over #6, #8, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #5 over #9 ($1 straight; box #5-#9 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #9, #6, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #6 over #2 ($1 straight; box #6-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #6, #5, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #3 over #6 ($1 straight; box #3-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #1, #9, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #8 over #7 ($1 straight; box #8-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #3, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 10AI Exacta: #4 over #2 ($1 straight; box #4-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #2, #3, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.38 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.88 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
412Legend'S Girl15/1—8.7%+34.6%0.58%$0.58
316Thick But Quick15/1—8.6%+34.0%0.57%$0.57
413Playa Encanto ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer30/1—2.6%+-17.7%0.00%$0.00
11Bright Time ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer20/1—3.6%+-21.8%0.00%$0.00
49Lyrical Jewel ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer30/1—2.4%+-22.2%0.00%$0.00
47Jaggery ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer30/1—2.3%+-25.0%0.00%$0.00
31Sorica ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer30/1—2.3%+-25.8%0.00%$0.00
611Thirst For Hope ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—2.2%+-27.2%0.00%$0.00
410Janies Gotta Run ⚠ high risk: maiden race, 20-1 or longer20/1—3.2%+-29.8%0.00%$0.00
TOTAL across 9 plays:1.1%$1.14
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:16Saltwater Crew (7/2)
Place:4House Of David (4/1)
Show:2Beautiful Quality (10/1)
Other contenders:8Notion In Motion (9/5), 14Danner (2/1), 3Regency Tale (5/2), 9M D Fieldstone (7/2), 15Mantua Man (8/1)
Rest of field:1Bright Time (20/1), 5Avigliano (12/1), 7Oath And Honour (15/1), 12Teddy P (20/1), 6Injustice (20/1), 13Canadian Dangler (20/1), 10Irish Divo (20/1), 11Band Tour (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 81416349
🎯 Longshots: 81431621549571126101311
🎫 Trifecta play: #16 over #4, #2, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · HO · Purse $29,000
Win:1Majestic Blue (4/1)
Place:7Real Macho (9/2)
Show:2Hurry Hurry (2/1)
Other contenders:4Secret Zipper (6/1), 8Roll On Jesse (10/1), 5Cap Com (6/1)
Rest of field:3Brindano (10/1), 6Crossland (20/1), 9Union Fleet (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 217458
🎯 Longshots: 238175496
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:9Open Range (3/1)
Place:8Good Wishes (2/1)
Show:16Thick But Quick (15/1)
Other contenders:2Air Kiss (4/1), 14Mega Moxie (5/1), 12Virginia Fab (12/1), 5Panning For Gold (8/1), 11La Perico (10/1)
Rest of field:6Sense The Moon (30/1), 3Frazil (15/1), 15Venapoint (20/1), 4A. P. Class (20/1), 13Conventional (30/1), 7Liam Reward (30/1), 1Sorica (30/1), 10Tuvana (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 89214516
🎯 Longshots: 98214161151236410171513
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #8, #16, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $37,000
Win:3Perpetual Notion (2/1)
Place:5Bubbling (5/1)
Show:4Ayni (3/1)
Other contenders:12Legend's Girl (15/1), 2Alta Vista Chapel (6/1), 8Ronnarock (15/1), 11Jennyfromtheblock (12/1)
Rest of field:10Janies Gotta Run (20/1), 7Jaggery (30/1), 6American Steele (30/1), 9Lyrical Jewel (30/1), 13Playa Encanto (30/1), 14Soapbox (30/1), 1Sao Siam (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3452128
🎯 Longshots: 3412528111079146131
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #4, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $53,000
Win:9Mopo (7/5)
Place:5Quiet Confidence (10/1)
Show:6Cougar Cocktail (7/2)
Other contenders:7Rerun Table (5/1), 8Big Earn (6/1), 2Spencer Tiara (6/1), 10Noquestionaboutit (10/1)
Rest of field:1Come To Mama (5/1), 4Lady Ensign (15/1), 3For The Ladies (20/1), 11Wherever We Are (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 967812
🎯 Longshots: 9610587421311
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #5, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $49,000
Win:5World On Fire (5/2)
Place:6Brightshininglight (5/1)
Show:12Big Bolton (10/1)
Other contenders:9Daring Venture (6/1), 4Jessica's Eyes (9/2), 13Brikeli (12/1), 2Alexis Zorba (15/1)
Rest of field:10Marvelous Mo (10/1), 3Boastfully Irish (8/1), 11Thirst For Hope (30/1), 1Benny Havens (30/1), 8Roommate Martin (30/1), 7Borletti (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5649123
🎯 Longshots: 53910122641381117
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #12, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $49,000
Win:2Frustrated (5/2)
Place:6Southern Gentleman (2/1)
Show:3Surgical Precision (5/1)
Other contenders:5Winning Trip (9/2), 8Channel The Music (8/1), 1Mo's Glitter (20/1)
Rest of field:7Fear Nothing (12/1), 4Lundi Loot (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 265387
🎯 Longshots: 62185743
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $47,000
Win:3Rocker Roller (2/1)
Place:1Lux (9/5)
Show:6Steel The Moment (3/2)
Other contenders:9Mad Misty (3/1), 8Mischief Storm (12/1), 5Justice You Say (30/1)
Rest of field:4Last Treasure (20/1), 7Gypsy Style (15/1), 2Hello Hoppertunity (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 361987
🎯 Longshots: 361987524
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #6, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $100,000
Win:8Waveless (9/5)
Place:3Amalfi Drive (9/2)
Show:7Especially (6/1)
Other contenders:6Aeolian (5/1), 4Dazzling Move (9/2), 9Pink Ruby (15/1), 10Delray (15/1)
Rest of field:2Doctor Abbie (20/1), 11Gold Digging Broad (30/1), 1Ivy Girl (20/1), 5Late Nite Call (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 834679
🎯 Longshots: 8379410621115
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:3Vida (6/1)
Place:4Cool Customer (6/5)
Show:2Atlantic Cat (2/1)
Other contenders:1Q Got Hops (15/1), 8Ryder (15/1), 7Hopeygot (10/1)
Rest of field:9Carolina Casanova (20/1), 6Louisville Liam (20/1), 5Billy Boy (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 423718
🎯 Longshots: 427319658
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:8Notion In Motion (9/5)
Place:14Danner (2/1)
Show:9M D Fieldstone (7/2)
Other contenders:3Regency Tale (5/2), 16Saltwater Crew (7/2), 2Beautiful Quality (10/1), 4House Of David (4/1), 15Mantua Man (8/1)
Rest of field:1Bright Time (20/1), 5Avigliano (12/1), 7Oath And Honour (15/1), 12Teddy P (20/1), 6Injustice (20/1), 13Canadian Dangler (20/1), 10Irish Divo (20/1), 11Band Tour (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 81439164
🎯 Longshots: 81431621549571126101311
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #14, #9, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · HO · Purse $29,000
Win:2Hurry Hurry (2/1)
Place:7Real Macho (9/2)
Show:4Secret Zipper (6/1)
Other contenders:1Majestic Blue (4/1), 5Cap Com (6/1), 3Brindano (10/1)
Rest of field:8Roll On Jesse (10/1), 6Crossland (20/1), 9Union Fleet (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 217453
🎯 Longshots: 238175496
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Claiming · Purse $30,000
Win:9Open Range (3/1)
Place:8Good Wishes (2/1)
Show:14Mega Moxie (5/1)
Other contenders:2Air Kiss (4/1), 5Panning For Gold (8/1), 12Virginia Fab (12/1), 3Frazil (15/1), 6Sense The Moon (30/1)
Rest of field:16Thick But Quick (15/1), 10Tuvana (30/1), 11La Perico (10/1), 4A. P. Class (20/1), 15Venapoint (20/1), 1Sorica (30/1), 7Liam Reward (30/1), 13Conventional (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 89214512
🎯 Longshots: 98214161151236410171513
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #8, #14, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $37,000
Win:4Ayni (3/1)
Place:5Bubbling (5/1)
Show:3Perpetual Notion (2/1)
Other contenders:2Alta Vista Chapel (6/1), 12Legend's Girl (15/1), 8Ronnarock (15/1), 7Jaggery (30/1)
Rest of field:11Jennyfromtheblock (12/1), 10Janies Gotta Run (20/1), 6American Steele (30/1), 1Sao Siam (30/1), 9Lyrical Jewel (30/1), 13Playa Encanto (30/1), 14Soapbox (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4352128
🎯 Longshots: 3412528111079146131
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $53,000
Win:9Mopo (7/5)
Place:6Cougar Cocktail (7/2)
Show:8Big Earn (6/1)
Other contenders:2Spencer Tiara (6/1), 5Quiet Confidence (10/1), 1Come To Mama (5/1), 7Rerun Table (5/1)
Rest of field:4Lady Ensign (15/1), 10Noquestionaboutit (10/1), 3For The Ladies (20/1), 11Wherever We Are (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 968172
🎯 Longshots: 9610587421311
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #6, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $49,000
Win:5World On Fire (5/2)
Place:9Daring Venture (6/1)
Show:6Brightshininglight (5/1)
Other contenders:4Jessica's Eyes (9/2), 10Marvelous Mo (10/1), 13Brikeli (12/1), 12Big Bolton (10/1)
Rest of field:3Boastfully Irish (8/1), 2Alexis Zorba (15/1), 1Benny Havens (30/1), 11Thirst For Hope (30/1), 7Borletti (30/1), 8Roommate Martin (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5469310
🎯 Longshots: 53910122641381117
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #9, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $49,000
Win:2Frustrated (5/2)
Place:6Southern Gentleman (2/1)
Show:5Winning Trip (9/2)
Other contenders:3Surgical Precision (5/1), 8Channel The Music (8/1), 7Fear Nothing (12/1)
Rest of field:1Mo's Glitter (20/1), 4Lundi Loot (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 625387
🎯 Longshots: 62185743
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $47,000
Win:3Rocker Roller (2/1)
Place:1Lux (9/5)
Show:9Mad Misty (3/1)
Other contenders:6Steel The Moment (3/2), 8Mischief Storm (12/1), 7Gypsy Style (15/1)
Rest of field:5Justice You Say (30/1), 4Last Treasure (20/1), 2Hello Hoppertunity (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 613987
🎯 Longshots: 361987524
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #9, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $100,000
Win:8Waveless (9/5)
Place:3Amalfi Drive (9/2)
Show:7Especially (6/1)
Other contenders:4Dazzling Move (9/2), 6Aeolian (5/1), 9Pink Ruby (15/1), 2Doctor Abbie (20/1)
Rest of field:11Gold Digging Broad (30/1), 10Delray (15/1), 5Late Nite Call (30/1), 1Ivy Girl (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 834679
🎯 Longshots: 8379410621115
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $22,000
Win:4Cool Customer (6/5)
Place:2Atlantic Cat (2/1)
Show:3Vida (6/1)
Other contenders:8Ryder (15/1), 7Hopeygot (10/1), 1Q Got Hops (15/1)
Rest of field:5Billy Boy (30/1), 9Carolina Casanova (20/1), 6Louisville Liam (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 423781
🎯 Longshots: 427319658
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R2-4R2: #2,#7,#1 (58%) / R3: #9,#2,#8 (59%) / R4: #4,#5 (61%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #5,#4,#9 (55%) / R7: #6,#5,#2 (65%) / R8: #3,#1 (61%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22%
Pick 3 R7-9R7: #6,#5,#2 (65%) / R8: #3,#1 (61%) / R9: #8,#4,#7 (61%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 24%
Pick 3 R8-10R8: #3,#1 (61%) / R9: #8,#4,#7 (61%) / R10: #4,#2 (76%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 28%
Pick 4 R6-9R6: #5,#4,#9 (55%) / R7: #6,#5,#2 (65%) / R8: #3,#1 (61%) / R9: #8,#4,#7 (61%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 13%
Pick 4 R7-10R7: #6,#5,#2 (65%) / R8: #3,#1 (61%) / R9: #8,#4,#7 (61%) / R10: #4,#2 (76%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 18%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
A. P. CLASSAEOLIANAIR KISSALEXIS ZORBAALTA VISTA CHAPEL
AMERICAN STEELEATLANTIC CATAVIGLIANOAYNIBAND TOUR
BENNY HAVENSBIG BOLTONBIG EARNBILLY BOYBOASTFULLY IRISH
BRIGHT TIMEBRIGHTSHININGLIGHTBRIKELIBRINDANOBUBBLING
CAP COMCAROLINA CASANOVACHANNEL THE MUSICCOME TO MAMACONVENTIONAL
COUGAR COCKTAILCROSSLANDDANNERDARING VENTUREDAZZLING MOVE
DOCTOR ABBIEESPECIALLYFEAR NOTHINGFOR THE LADIESFRAZIL
GOLD DIGGING BROADGOOD WISHESGYPSY STYLEHELLO HOPPERTUNITYHOPEYGOT
HURRY HURRYINJUSTICEIRISH DIVOIVY GIRLJAGGERY
JENNYFROMTHEBLOCKJESSICA'S EYESJUSTICE YOU SAYLA PERICOLADY ENSIGN
LATE NITE CALLLEGEND'S GIRLLIAM REWARDLOUISVILLE LIAMLUNDI LOOT
LYRICAL JEWELM D FIELDSTONEMAD MISTYMAJESTIC BLUEMANTUA MAN
MEGA MOXIEMISCHIEF STORMMO'S GLITTERMOPONOQUESTIONABOUTIT
OATH AND HONOUROPEN RANGEPANNING FOR GOLDPERPETUAL NOTIONPINK RUBY
Q GOT HOPSQUIET CONFIDENCEREAL MACHOREGENCY TALERERUN TABLE
ROLL ON JESSERONNAROCKROOMMATE MARTINRYDERSALTWATER CREW
SECRET ZIPPERSENSE THE MOONSOAPBOXSORICASOUTHERN GENTLEMAN
STEEL THE MOMENTSURGICAL PRECISIONTEDDY PTHICK BUT QUICKTHIRST FOR HOPE
UNION FLEETVENAPOINTVIDAVIRGINIA FABWAVELESS
WINNING TRIPWORLD ON FIRE

 


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