Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Los Alamitos, October 17, 2026


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $8,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Sagunto (3/5)
Place:1Karma's Revenge (4/1)
Show:7Wicklow Way (5/1)
Other contenders:4Rusty Boy (10/1), 3Bucky's Boy (12/1)
Rest of field:2Great Strike (15/1), 6The Dude Abides (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 517432
🎯 Longshots: 5123476
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $8,000
Win:5Sagunto (3/5) 42% · fair 3-2 underlay -56%
Place:1Karma's Revenge (4/1) 24% · fair 3-1
Show:7Wicklow Way (5/1) 14% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:2Great Strike (15/1) 6% · fair 16-1, 4Rusty Boy (10/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -47%
Rest of field:3Bucky's Boy (12/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -41%, 6The Dude Abides (20/1) 4% · fair 24-1
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Sagunto — 42.1% win probability, morning line 0.6/1Sagunto42.1% ◀Karma'S Revenge — 23.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Karma'S Revenge23.8%Wicklow Way — 14.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Wicklow Way14.4%Great Strike — 5.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Great Strike5.9%Rusty Boy — 5.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Rusty Boy5.0%Bucky'S Boy — 4.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Bucky'S Boy4.7%The Dude Abides — 4.0% win probability, morning line 20/1The Dude Abides4.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Sagunto42.1%0.6/1
Karma'S Revenge23.8%4/1
Wicklow Way14.4%5/1
Great Strike5.9%15/1
Rusty Boy5.0%10/1
Bucky'S Boy4.7%12/1
The Dude Abides4.0%20/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSagunto: model 42.1% vs market 49.2% (-7.1 points)Sagunto-7.1Karma'S Revenge: model 23.8% vs market 15.8% (+8.0 points)Karma'S Revenge+8.0Wicklow Way: model 14.4% vs market 13.1% (+1.3 points)Wicklow Way+1.3Great Strike: model 5.9% vs market 4.9% (+1.0 points)Great Strike+1.0Rusty Boy: model 5.0% vs market 7.2% (-2.1 points)Rusty Boy-2.1Bucky'S Boy: model 4.7% vs market 6.1% (-1.3 points)Bucky'S Boy-1.3The Dude Abides: model 4.0% vs market 3.8% (+0.3 points)The Dude Abides+0.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Sagunto42.1%49.2%-7.1
Karma'S Revenge23.8%15.8%+8.0
Wicklow Way14.4%13.1%+1.3
Great Strike5.9%4.9%+1.0
Rusty Boy5.0%7.2%-2.1
Bucky'S Boy4.7%6.1%-1.3
The Dude Abides4.0%3.8%+0.3
🌧️ Off-track: 517432
🎯 Longshots: 5123476
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $8,000
Win:5Sagunto (3/5)
Place:1Karma's Revenge (4/1)
Show:7Wicklow Way (5/1)
Other contenders:4Rusty Boy (10/1), 3Bucky's Boy (12/1)
Rest of field:6The Dude Abides (20/1), 2Great Strike (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 517432
🎯 Longshots: 5123476
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #5 over #1 ($1 straight; box #5-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #1, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $8,000
Win:5Sagunto (3/5)
Place:1Karma's Revenge (4/1)
Show:4Rusty Boy (10/1)
Other contenders:7Wicklow Way (5/1), 6The Dude Abides (20/1)
Rest of field:2Great Strike (15/1), 3Bucky's Boy (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 517432
🎯 Longshots: 5123476
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $8,000
Win:5Sagunto (3/5)
Place:1Karma's Revenge (4/1)
Show:7Wicklow Way (5/1)
Other contenders:4Rusty Boy (10/1), 3Bucky's Boy (12/1)
Rest of field:6The Dude Abides (20/1), 2Great Strike (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 517432
🎯 Longshots: 5123476
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
Index – Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
A HINT OF BADAMERICAN KARTELASTRONOMICAL 123BEAR DOWNBEHIND THE BAR
BRENDAS CORONA DBBUCKY'S BOYCATTAIL COVECOWBOY DOWN PERRYDARLING JULIA
DULCE GLORIETAECHICERAENDEEEPIC WINDFAMOUS COWBOY TO YOU
FIVE BUTTON FLYGREAT STRIKEINVASIVEIZA CANDY MANJESSKEEPINGITGOING
KICKINGITKISS N ROSELA SOLITAMIDNITE SMOKINMISS HAPPY
MR APOLLITICAL MRLNYMPHLIKEON THE SKY IS CASHPODEROSOPRETTY DYNASTY
QUICKIE SHINERATIONALREAL MISTAKEROYALTYS INVADERRUSTY BOY
SEIS LIGHTNINGSEMASMOKEM ANGELSOCIAL GENIUSSOO BRONX
STORM LOUISIANASUMOKE N MIRRORSTHE DUDE ABIDESTHE RED BOYTURNPIKE JAMMER
WICKLOW WAY

 


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