Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Los Alamitos, October 25, 2026


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $8,500
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Nostrangrtotherain (2/1)
Place:1Smiling Jojo (3/1)
Show:3Last Baby (9/2)
Other contenders:2Seige The Day (9/2), 4Papa Tiger (3/1)
Rest of field:5Could Be Gold (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 614325
🎯 Longshots: 615234
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7Eielson (8/5)
Place:2Grey Power (3/1)
Show:4Wild King (9/2)
Other contenders:5Scoop Of Chocolate (6/1), 1Tascadero (10/1)
Rest of field:3Rachel's Gig (10/1), 6Gold Proof (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 724516
🎯 Longshots: 7213645
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $8,500
Win:6Nostrangrtotherain (2/1) 28% · fair 5-2
Place:1Smiling Jojo (3/1) 26% · fair 3-1
Show:2Seige The Day (9/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:4Papa Tiger (3/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -55%, 3Last Baby (9/2) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -43%
Rest of field:5Could Be Gold (15/1) 4% · fair 25-1 underlay -40%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Nostrangrtotherain — 28.0% win probability, morning line 2/1Nostrangrtotherain28.0% ◀Smiling Jojo — 26.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Smiling Jojo26.0%Seige The Day — 17.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Seige The Day17.9%Papa Tiger — 13.1% win probability, morning line 3/1Papa Tiger13.1%Last Baby — 11.2% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Last Baby11.2%Could Be Gold — 3.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Could Be Gold3.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Nostrangrtotherain28.0%2/1
Smiling Jojo26.0%3/1
Seige The Day17.9%4.5/1
Papa Tiger13.1%3/1
Last Baby11.2%4.5/1
Could Be Gold3.9%15/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherNostrangrtotherain: model 28.0% vs market 26.5% (+1.5 points)Nostrangrtotherain+1.5Smiling Jojo: model 26.0% vs market 19.8% (+6.1 points)Smiling Jojo+6.1Seige The Day: model 17.9% vs market 14.4% (+3.5 points)Seige The Day+3.5Papa Tiger: model 13.1% vs market 19.8% (-6.8 points)Papa Tiger-6.8Last Baby: model 11.2% vs market 14.4% (-3.2 points)Last Baby-3.2Could Be Gold: model 3.9% vs market 5.0% (-1.1 points)Could Be Gold-1.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Nostrangrtotherain28.0%26.5%+1.5
Smiling Jojo26.0%19.8%+6.1
Seige The Day17.9%14.4%+3.5
Papa Tiger13.1%19.8%-6.8
Last Baby11.2%14.4%-3.2
Could Be Gold3.9%5.0%-1.1
🌧️ Off-track: 614235
🎯 Longshots: 615234
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:2Grey Power (3/1) 29% · fair 5-2 overlay +25%
Place:7Eielson (8/5) 27% · fair 5-2 underlay -41%
Show:4Wild King (9/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -40%
Other contenders:5Scoop Of Chocolate (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -32%, 1Tascadero (10/1) 10% · fair 9-1
Rest of field:3Rachel's Gig (10/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -34%, 6Gold Proof (8/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -52%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Grey Power — 29.4% win probability, morning line 3/1Grey Power29.4% ◀Eielson — 26.8% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Eielson26.8%Wild King — 11.8% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Wild King11.8%Scoop Of Chocolate — 10.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Scoop Of Chocolate10.2%Tascadero — 10.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Tascadero10.0%Rachel'S Gig — 6.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Rachel'S Gig6.2%Gold Proof — 5.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Gold Proof5.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Grey Power29.4%3/1
Eielson26.8%1.6/1
Wild King11.8%4.5/1
Scoop Of Chocolate10.2%6/1
Tascadero10.0%10/1
Rachel'S Gig6.2%10/1
Gold Proof5.6%8/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGrey Power: model 29.4% vs market 20.0% (+9.4 points)Grey Power+9.4Eielson: model 26.8% vs market 30.7% (-3.9 points)Eielson-3.9Wild King: model 11.8% vs market 14.5% (-2.7 points)Wild King-2.7Scoop Of Chocolate: model 10.2% vs market 11.4% (-1.2 points)Scoop Of Chocolate-1.2Tascadero: model 10.0% vs market 7.3% (+2.7 points)Tascadero+2.7Rachel'S Gig: model 6.2% vs market 7.3% (-1.1 points)Rachel'S Gig-1.1Gold Proof: model 5.6% vs market 8.9% (-3.2 points)Gold Proof-3.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Grey Power29.4%20.0%+9.4
Eielson26.8%30.7%-3.9
Wild King11.8%14.5%-2.7
Scoop Of Chocolate10.2%11.4%-1.2
Tascadero10.0%7.3%+2.7
Rachel'S Gig6.2%7.3%-1.1
Gold Proof5.6%8.9%-3.2
🌧️ Off-track: 724516
🎯 Longshots: 7213645
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $8,500
Win:6Nostrangrtotherain (2/1)
Place:1Smiling Jojo (3/1)
Show:2Seige The Day (9/2)
Other contenders:3Last Baby (9/2), 4Papa Tiger (3/1)
Rest of field:5Could Be Gold (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 614235
🎯 Longshots: 615234
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:7Eielson (8/5)
Place:2Grey Power (3/1)
Show:4Wild King (9/2)
Other contenders:5Scoop Of Chocolate (6/1), 1Tascadero (10/1)
Rest of field:3Rachel's Gig (10/1), 6Gold Proof (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 724561
🎯 Longshots: 7213645
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 3AI Exacta: #6 over #1 ($1 straight; box #6-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #1, #3, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #7 over #2 ($1 straight; box #7-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #2, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $8,500
Win:6Nostrangrtotherain (2/1)
Place:1Smiling Jojo (3/1)
Show:2Seige The Day (9/2)
Other contenders:3Last Baby (9/2), 5Could Be Gold (15/1)
Rest of field:4Papa Tiger (3/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 612345
🎯 Longshots: 615234
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:7Eielson (8/5)
Place:2Grey Power (3/1)
Show:5Scoop Of Chocolate (6/1)
Other contenders:4Wild King (9/2), 1Tascadero (10/1)
Rest of field:3Rachel's Gig (10/1), 6Gold Proof (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 724516
🎯 Longshots: 7213645
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $8,500
Win:6Nostrangrtotherain (2/1)
Place:1Smiling Jojo (3/1)
Show:3Last Baby (9/2)
Other contenders:2Seige The Day (9/2), 4Papa Tiger (3/1)
Rest of field:5Could Be Gold (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 614325
🎯 Longshots: 615234
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:7Eielson (8/5)
Place:2Grey Power (3/1)
Show:4Wild King (9/2)
Other contenders:5Scoop Of Chocolate (6/1), 3Rachel's Gig (10/1)
Rest of field:1Tascadero (10/1), 6Gold Proof (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 724563
🎯 Longshots: 7213645
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
Index – Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ALPHABETICAL ORDERBALADIBERT'S PROSPECTBLAZING PEMEBLUE EYES COWBOY
CARTEL COWGIRL 123CIOPPINA PASADINACONTENTIOUSCOULD BE GOLDCOULD BE HOT
CV FDDDINASTY SHANDIOS DORADODISKO TRIBUTEEIELSONFAULTLESS
FIRE ILEFLYING SOUTHFULL MOON GRAZENGOLD PROOFGREY POWER
HONORABLE GALITS A CINCHITS KRAKEN TIMEJESS B BOUJEEJESS LOADED
LADY RUNLAST BABYLIGHTNING VAQUERALIQUID SPIRITLUCKY AND GONE
MING DYNASTYMISCHIEF RIVERMISCHIEF'S KINGMISCHIEVOUS PADDYMP JESS ROCKIN
NOSTRANGRTOTHERAINNOVINOPHOBIANUCLEAR ARSENALPAPA TIGERPRINCESS DADDY
PROMISE ME KATRACHEL'S GIGREVENANTLYROCK N ROLL SONGSCOOP OF CHOCOLATE
SHINING CHAMPIONSHORTMANSMILING JOJOSMILINTHRUTHETEARSSO I'M TOLD
STANDING WITH PRIDETASCADEROTIME TICKERTOPSTITCHUP A LAZY RIVER
WILD KINGZERO DOWN

 


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