Posted inAnalysis Picks

Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Mountaineer Park, July 19, 2026

No CommentsPosted inAnalysis, Picks


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

 

Pick Pony's AI picks work best when used with our Past Performance reports to enhance your handicapping and are especially effective for identifying potential longshot selections. You can purchase custom Past Performance reports through one of our subscription options. Learn more about Pick Pony's Past Performance reports here. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

Algo Picks – Algo 1
 
Race 1
Win:3 – New Diamond (5/1)
Place:8 – Princess Azara (5/2)
Show:4 – Mariette (3/1)
Other contenders:2 – Becky Is Sexy (9/2), 10 – Mitole's Secret (10/1), 6 – Heavenly Lady (12/1)
Rest of field:9 – R Candy (15/1), 7 – Highway Robbery (15/1), 5 – Bougie Like (20/1), 1 – Summer Forever (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9-2-4-3-8-7
🎯 Longshots: 4-8-2-9-3-10-6-7-1-5
 
Race 2
Win:10 – Crafty Lawyer (3/1)
Place:2 – Pigeon Cay (4/1)
Show:4 – Party Queen (15/1)
Other contenders:6 – Lucky And Pretty (7/1), 3 – Elektra King (5/1), 1 – Pivot To The Power (9/2)
Rest of field:5 – Independent Streak (6/1), 8 – Thy Name Is Woman (12/1), 9 – Offthe Beaten Path (20/1), 7 – Prettyrunner (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-4-8-3-10-6
🎯 Longshots: 10-4-1-8-2-6-3-5-9-7
 
Race 3
Win:3 – Diferencia (3/1)
Place:9 – Little Value Added (7/2)
Show:10 – My Lucky Deia (4/1)
Other contenders:2 – Sip'n' Speed (8/1), 6 – Black Bety (7/1), 11 – Joys Of Summer (15/1), 13 – Good Enough For Me (6/1)
Rest of field:5 – Una Roca (15/1), 12 – Aurora's Music (12/1), 14 – Siljim (12/1), 4 – Brody's Cat (12/1), 8 – Carousing (20/1), 1 – Crystal Water (10/1), 7 – My Daniela (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6-10-8-4-12-9
🎯 Longshots: 3-2-9-12-11-10-5-4-14-1-13-6-8-7
 
Race 4
Win:5 – Quistmer (7/2)
Place:6 – Uncle Truly (6/1)
Show:4 – Breezer (9/2)
Other contenders:12 – Irish Heatwave (10/1), 11 – Vanzzy (4/1), 2 – Tap Em (5/1), 13 – Krug (5/1)
Rest of field:1 – Galilee (20/1), 10 – Growth Capital (20/1), 7 – Old Flag (3/1), 8 – Grimes (15/1), 9 – Hope Joe's Right (12/1), 3 – Trap Line (8/1), 14 – Drill's Boy (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-12-1-3-14-7
🎯 Longshots: 7-5-12-8-9-4-3-6-2-13-11-1-10-14
 
Race 5
Win:1 – Rosie Ann Rules (3/1)
Place:9 – Maam Cross (2/1)
Show:6 – Come A Waltzing (10/1)
Other contenders:4 – Echo Vision (9/2), 2 – How Noon Is Now (5/1), 3 – Jacarandosa (7/1)
Rest of field:7 – Luna Anna (15/1), 8 – Algebrainthedark (20/1), 5 – Team Chiquita (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-9-2-4-3-6
🎯 Longshots: 9-1-6-7-4-5-2-8-3
 
Race 6
Win:1 – Big Effect (9/2)
Place:7 – Tapsolution (3/1)
Show:6 – Zaddy (5/1)
Other contenders:3 – Smart Coverage (7/2), 2 – Alfie Solomons (12/1), 5 – Beyond The Bend (6/1)
Rest of field:8 – Shiva (7/1), 4 – Strawberry Sky (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-8-4-2-3-5
🎯 Longshots: 7-3-1-5-6-2-8-4
 
Race 7
Win:7 – Larimar (2/1)
Place:5 – Flight Control (5/2)
Show:4 – Bonita Vida (7/2)
Other contenders:2 – Opposite The Crowd (10/1), 6 – Sweet Queen Bee (12/1), 8 – Silver Candice (12/1)
Rest of field:1 – Waterworks (9/1), 3 – Palmary (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-6-4-8-2-1
🎯 Longshots: 7-5-1-6-2-8-4-3
 
Race 8
Win:5 – Ember (3/1)
Place:1 – Leo And Royal (7/2)
Show:6 – Gold Buckle (4/1)
Other contenders:10 – Braggadocious (12/1), 4 – Tapio (5/1), 2 – King Miano (8/1)
Rest of field:8 – Chopped (10/1), 7 – Hapi Hapi (20/1), 3 – Zippy Gizmo (20/1), 9 – Cleveland Power (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-6-1-7-4-10
🎯 Longshots: 5-10-2-1-8-6-9-4-7-3
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
Algo Picks – Algo 2
 
Race 1
Win:3 – New Diamond (5/1)
Place:4 – Mariette (3/1)
Show:8 – Princess Azara (5/2)
Other contenders:2 – Becky Is Sexy (9/2), 10 – Mitole's Secret (10/1), 9 – R Candy (15/1)
Rest of field:6 – Heavenly Lady (12/1), 7 – Highway Robbery (15/1), 1 – Summer Forever (20/1), 5 – Bougie Like (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-9-2-3-8-7
🎯 Longshots: 4-8-2-9-3-10-6-7-1-5
 
Race 2
Win:4 – Party Queen (15/1)
Place:10 – Crafty Lawyer (3/1)
Show:1 – Pivot To The Power (9/2)
Other contenders:5 – Independent Streak (6/1), 2 – Pigeon Cay (4/1), 3 – Elektra King (5/1)
Rest of field:6 – Lucky And Pretty (7/1), 8 – Thy Name Is Woman (12/1), 9 – Offthe Beaten Path (20/1), 7 – Prettyrunner (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-1-2-10-3-5
🎯 Longshots: 10-4-1-8-2-6-3-5-9-7
 
Race 3
Win:3 – Diferencia (3/1)
Place:10 – My Lucky Deia (4/1)
Show:13 – Good Enough For Me (6/1)
Other contenders:9 – Little Value Added (7/2), 8 – Carousing (20/1), 2 – Sip'n' Speed (8/1), 6 – Black Bety (7/1)
Rest of field:4 – Brody's Cat (12/1), 1 – Crystal Water (10/1), 12 – Aurora's Music (12/1), 11 – Joys Of Summer (15/1), 5 – Una Roca (15/1), 14 – Siljim (12/1), 7 – My Daniela (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6-8-10-4-12-9
🎯 Longshots: 3-2-9-12-11-10-5-4-14-1-13-6-8-7
 
Race 4
Win:5 – Quistmer (7/2)
Place:7 – Old Flag (3/1)
Show:4 – Breezer (9/2)
Other contenders:13 – Krug (5/1), 12 – Irish Heatwave (10/1), 6 – Uncle Truly (6/1), 11 – Vanzzy (4/1)
Rest of field:8 – Grimes (15/1), 2 – Tap Em (5/1), 9 – Hope Joe's Right (12/1), 3 – Trap Line (8/1), 10 – Growth Capital (20/1), 1 – Galilee (20/1), 14 – Drill's Boy (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-12-1-3-7-14
🎯 Longshots: 7-5-12-8-9-4-3-6-2-13-11-1-10-14
 
Race 5
Win:9 – Maam Cross (2/1)
Place:1 – Rosie Ann Rules (3/1)
Show:4 – Echo Vision (9/2)
Other contenders:2 – How Noon Is Now (5/1), 3 – Jacarandosa (7/1), 6 – Come A Waltzing (10/1)
Rest of field:5 – Team Chiquita (20/1), 7 – Luna Anna (15/1), 8 – Algebrainthedark (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9-1-4-2-3-5
🎯 Longshots: 9-1-6-7-4-5-2-8-3
 
Race 6
Win:1 – Big Effect (9/2)
Place:7 – Tapsolution (3/1)
Show:3 – Smart Coverage (7/2)
Other contenders:5 – Beyond The Bend (6/1), 6 – Zaddy (5/1), 8 – Shiva (7/1)
Rest of field:2 – Alfie Solomons (12/1), 4 – Strawberry Sky (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-3-8-5-4-1
🎯 Longshots: 7-3-1-5-6-2-8-4
 
Race 7
Win:7 – Larimar (2/1)
Place:5 – Flight Control (5/2)
Show:2 – Opposite The Crowd (10/1)
Other contenders:4 – Bonita Vida (7/2), 6 – Sweet Queen Bee (12/1), 8 – Silver Candice (12/1)
Rest of field:1 – Waterworks (9/1), 3 – Palmary (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-6-5-2-4-8
🎯 Longshots: 7-5-1-6-2-8-4-3
 
Race 8
Win:5 – Ember (3/1)
Place:6 – Gold Buckle (4/1)
Show:2 – King Miano (8/1)
Other contenders:1 – Leo And Royal (7/2), 8 – Chopped (10/1), 10 – Braggadocious (12/1)
Rest of field:4 – Tapio (5/1), 9 – Cleveland Power (15/1), 7 – Hapi Hapi (20/1), 3 – Zippy Gizmo (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-6-1-8-2-10
🎯 Longshots: 5-10-2-1-8-6-9-4-7-3
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Algo Picks – Algo 3
 
Race 1
Win:4 – Mariette (3/1)
Place:8 – Princess Azara (5/2)
Show:3 – New Diamond (5/1)
Other contenders:2 – Becky Is Sexy (9/2), 10 – Mitole's Secret (10/1), 9 – R Candy (15/1)
Rest of field:6 – Heavenly Lady (12/1), 7 – Highway Robbery (15/1), 1 – Summer Forever (20/1), 5 – Bougie Like (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-2-9-8-3-7
🎯 Longshots: 4-8-2-9-3-10-6-7-1-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #8, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2
Win:4 – Party Queen (15/1)
Place:10 – Crafty Lawyer (3/1)
Show:1 – Pivot To The Power (9/2)
Other contenders:5 – Independent Streak (6/1), 2 – Pigeon Cay (4/1), 3 – Elektra King (5/1)
Rest of field:6 – Lucky And Pretty (7/1), 8 – Thy Name Is Woman (12/1), 9 – Offthe Beaten Path (20/1), 7 – Prettyrunner (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-1-2-10-3-5
🎯 Longshots: 10-4-1-8-2-6-3-5-9-7
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #10, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3
Win:10 – My Lucky Deia (4/1)
Place:3 – Diferencia (3/1)
Show:13 – Good Enough For Me (6/1)
Other contenders:9 – Little Value Added (7/2), 8 – Carousing (20/1), 2 – Sip'n' Speed (8/1), 6 – Black Bety (7/1)
Rest of field:4 – Brody's Cat (12/1), 1 – Crystal Water (10/1), 12 – Aurora's Music (12/1), 11 – Joys Of Summer (15/1), 5 – Una Roca (15/1), 14 – Siljim (12/1), 7 – My Daniela (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6-8-10-4-9-12
🎯 Longshots: 3-2-9-12-11-10-5-4-14-1-13-6-8-7
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #3, #13, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4
Win:5 – Quistmer (7/2)
Place:7 – Old Flag (3/1)
Show:13 – Krug (5/1)
Other contenders:4 – Breezer (9/2), 6 – Uncle Truly (6/1), 11 – Vanzzy (4/1), 12 – Irish Heatwave (10/1)
Rest of field:2 – Tap Em (5/1), 8 – Grimes (15/1), 9 – Hope Joe's Right (12/1), 3 – Trap Line (8/1), 10 – Growth Capital (20/1), 1 – Galilee (20/1), 14 – Drill's Boy (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-12-7-3-1-13
🎯 Longshots: 7-5-12-8-9-4-3-6-2-13-11-1-10-14
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #13, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5
Win:9 – Maam Cross (2/1)
Place:1 – Rosie Ann Rules (3/1)
Show:2 – How Noon Is Now (5/1)
Other contenders:4 – Echo Vision (9/2), 3 – Jacarandosa (7/1), 6 – Come A Waltzing (10/1)
Rest of field:5 – Team Chiquita (20/1), 7 – Luna Anna (15/1), 8 – Algebrainthedark (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 9-1-2-4-3-5
🎯 Longshots: 9-1-6-7-4-5-2-8-3
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #1, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6
Win:7 – Tapsolution (3/1)
Place:1 – Big Effect (9/2)
Show:3 – Smart Coverage (7/2)
Other contenders:5 – Beyond The Bend (6/1), 6 – Zaddy (5/1), 8 – Shiva (7/1)
Rest of field:4 – Strawberry Sky (10/1), 2 – Alfie Solomons (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-3-5-8-4-1
🎯 Longshots: 7-3-1-5-6-2-8-4
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7
Win:7 – Larimar (2/1)
Place:5 – Flight Control (5/2)
Show:4 – Bonita Vida (7/2)
Other contenders:2 – Opposite The Crowd (10/1), 6 – Sweet Queen Bee (12/1), 8 – Silver Candice (12/1)
Rest of field:1 – Waterworks (9/1), 3 – Palmary (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-5-6-4-2-8
🎯 Longshots: 7-5-1-6-2-8-4-3
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8
Win:5 – Ember (3/1)
Place:6 – Gold Buckle (4/1)
Show:2 – King Miano (8/1)
Other contenders:8 – Chopped (10/1), 1 – Leo And Royal (7/2), 10 – Braggadocious (12/1)
Rest of field:4 – Tapio (5/1), 9 – Cleveland Power (15/1), 7 – Hapi Hapi (20/1), 3 – Zippy Gizmo (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-6-2-8-1-10
🎯 Longshots: 5-10-2-1-8-6-9-4-7-3
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #2, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 1, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 13, Mid Pace: 99, Late Pace: 48, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 1, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 37, Medications: 95, Weather: 16, Race Trouble: 82, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 1, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Kelly Edge Plays
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: multidim)    Morning-line reliability: +0.35 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.82 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)
RaceHorseMLP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $ bankroll
73 – Palmary20/141.7%+600.4%5.00%$5.00
48 – Grimes15/123.4%+213.2%3.55%$3.55
28 – Thy Name Is Woman12/123.4%+158.7%3.31%$3.31
810 – Braggadocious12/123.4%+158.7%3.31%$3.31
78 – Silver Candice12/120.5%+129.1%2.69%$2.69
49 – Hope Joe'S Right12/117.3%+96.4%2.01%$2.01
24 – Party Queen15/113.7%+92.4%1.54%$1.54
16 – Heavenly Lady12/116.7%+90.9%1.89%$1.89
110 – Mitole'S Secret10/118.5%+80.5%2.01%$2.01
31 – Crystal Water10/118.5%+80.5%2.01%$2.01
64 – Strawberry Sky10/118.5%+80.5%2.01%$2.01
34 – Brody'S Cat12/114.7%+70.8%1.47%$1.47
412 – Irish Heatwave10/113.8%+40.0%1.00%$1.00
38 – Carousing20/17.0%+36.9%0.46%$0.46
55 – Team Chiquita20/17.0%+36.9%0.46%$0.46
88 – Chopped10/112.7%+30.9%0.77%$0.77
72 – Opposite The Crowd10/112.1%+25.8%0.64%$0.64
89 – Cleveland Power15/17.5%+15.4%0.26%$0.26
TOTAL across 18 plays:34.4%$34.40
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
Index - Horses Running In This Card
ALFIE SOLOMONSALGEBRAINTHEDARKAURORA'S MUSICBECKY IS SEXYBEYOND THE BEND
BLACK BETYBONITA VIDABOUGIE LIKEBRAGGADOCIOUSBREEZER
CAROUSINGCHOPPEDCLEVELAND POWERCOME A WALTZINGCRAFTY LAWYER
DIFERENCIADRILL'S BOYECHO VISIONELEKTRA KINGEMBER
GALILEEGOLD BUCKLEGOOD ENOUGH FOR MEGRIMESGROWTH CAPITAL
HEAVENLY LADYHIGHWAY ROBBERYHOPE JOE'S RIGHTHOW NOON IS NOWINDEPENDENT STREAK
JACARANDOSAJOYS OF SUMMERKING MIANOKRUGLARIMAR
LITTLE VALUE ADDEDLUCKY AND PRETTYLUNA ANNAMAAM CROSSMARIETTE
MY DANIELAMY LUCKY DEIANEW DIAMONDOFFTHE BEATEN PATHOLD FLAG
PALMARYPARTY QUEENPIGEON CAYPIVOT TO THE POWERPRETTYRUNNER
QUISTMERR CANDYROSIE ANN RULESSHIVASILJIM
SIP'N' SPEEDSMART COVERAGESTRAWBERRY SKYSUMMER FOREVERSWEET QUEEN BEE
TAPIOTAPSOLUTIONTEAM CHIQUITATHY NAME IS WOMANTRAP LINE
UNCLE TRULYVANZZYWATERWORKSZADDYZIPPY GIZMO

 


Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback