Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Mountaineer Park — in-the-money rate
How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 264 graded races at Mountaineer Park, 2026-08-16 to 2026-11-09.
In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.
Show the numbers
| Group | Win rate | Races |
|---|---|---|
| Our top pick | 68.2% | 264 |
| Morning-line favourite | 65.9% | 264 |
| Race 1 1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 12Blumoon Fire (3/2) |
| Place: | 7Temple City Taboo (9/1) |
| Show: | 13Starship Discovery (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5Crafty Lawyer (6/1), 2Itza Kitty (3/1), 11Gio Linh (5/1), 1Cole's Valentine (2/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6Pivot To The Power (12/1), 3Missus Seki (7/1), 9Bailey's Girl (15/1), 10Vai Gattina (10/1), 14Dangereuse (20/1), 8My Angel Does (20/1), 4Round In Circles (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 12131275 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7121356112131491084 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #7, #13, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $22,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 1Duncan Idaho (9/5) |
| Place: | 11Kosher Cowboy (2/1) |
| Show: | 12Clyde's Green Go (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 9You Bet A Fortune (4/1), 8Holiday House (6/1), 7Jimmy The Hat (7/1), 4Button Box (9/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Lil Red Beaudette (10/1), 6Yes I Am Free (15/1), 10La Marinera (15/1), 5Dropkick Murphy (20/1), 3Housebuilder (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 11112987 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 111921248763105 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #11, #12, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 3 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 4Cash Customer (2/1) |
| Place: | 5Where Ya At Vince (3/1) |
| Show: | 8French Onion (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3Ohoopee (10/1), 1Remys Gunsmoke (7/1), 9Dusty Billy (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Mas Que Nada (12/1), 6Drewpower (15/1), 7Markhamian (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 458139 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 453812967 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #8, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 10Gottagetitback (2/1) |
| Place: | 3Mr Negativity (3/1) |
| Show: | 1Alfie Solomons (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2Kiltoom (10/1), 6Mean Tweets (9/1), 7Bohemian Style (12/1), 5Crafty Conquest (7/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9Weekend Concerto (20/1), 8Rebel Empire (15/1), 4You're In Corey (20/1), 11Face Abarrio (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1031267 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2106713911548 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #3, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $15,500 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 8Mcmoney (2/1) |
| Place: | 2Winter's Ghost (6/1) |
| Show: | 6Forge In Fire (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 10Tojo's Mojo (12/1), 5Goose Hunter (9/1), 3Timeless Bounty (7/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9Tizawhitefacecat (15/1), 1Rose's Pepino (10/1), 4General Issue (20/1), 7Sargeant Barger (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8625103 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 10584291637 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #6, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 8Friendly Lucy (2/1) |
| Place: | 7I've Had Enough (6/1) |
| Show: | 4Spatula (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2Stormy Cut (3/1), 6Late Spring Night (8/1), 5Bella Cattiva (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Kim's Money (15/1), 3Coastalness (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 847265 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 67485213 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $20,000 | |
| ★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best. | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 3A Single Glance (7/2) |
| Place: | 5Wishful Thoughts (2/1) |
| Show: | 8Arapaho Nation (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Bonds Revenge (7/1), 6Ocata (12/1), 1Team Mischievous (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9Team Ramajama (10/1), 2Candy For Cynthia (12/1), 4Pure Electrum (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 358761 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 361527894 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #8, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,500 | |
| ★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best. | |
| ◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often. | |
| Win: | 8Gun Policy (2/1) |
| Place: | 12Mr. Colossal (9/5) |
| Show: | 11Averyz Day (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3Souper Justified (3/1), 9Unaffected (6/1), 5Ask Arthur (12/1), 4Tactics (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7Fast Fall (15/1), 2Aves Makin' Waves (9/1), 6Rockible (20/1), 10Move In Silence (7/1), 1Imposter Syndrome (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 81211394 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 128115746231910 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #12, #11, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Mountaineer Park — win rate
How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 181 graded races at Mountaineer Park, 2026-09-06 to 2026-11-09.
The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.
Show the numbers
| Group | Win rate | Races |
|---|---|---|
| Our top pick | 35.4% | 181 |
| Morning-line favourite | 32.0% | 181 |
| Race 1 1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 12Blumoon Fire (3/2) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -67% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 7Temple City Taboo (9/1) 17% · fair 9-2 overlay +90% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 5Crafty Lawyer (6/1) 15% · fair 11-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 13Starship Discovery (5/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -51%, 11Gio Linh (5/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -52%, 2Itza Kitty (3/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -75%, 3Missus Seki (7/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -56% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 1Cole's Valentine (2/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -88%, 6Pivot To The Power (12/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -39%, 9Bailey's Girl (15/1) 2% · fair 40-1 underlay -63%, 14Dangereuse (20/1) 2% · fair 97-2 underlay -59%, 10Vai Gattina (10/1) 2% · fair 63-1 underlay -84%, 4Round In Circles (20/1) 1% · fair 185-2 underlay -78%, 8My Angel Does (20/1) 1% · fair 125-1 underlay -84% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Race 1 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🌧️ Off-track: 12152713 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 7121356112131491084 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #7, #5, #13 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 2 5 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $22,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 1Duncan Idaho (9/5) 27% · fair 5-2 underlay -32% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 11Kosher Cowboy (2/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -60% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 12Clyde's Green Go (3/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -60% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 9You Bet A Fortune (4/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -52%, 8Holiday House (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -43%, 7Jimmy The Hat (7/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -56%, 4Button Box (9/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -52% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 2Lil Red Beaudette (10/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -53%, 6Yes I Am Free (15/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -35%, 3Housebuilder (20/1) 2% · fair 99-2 underlay -60%, 5Dropkick Murphy (20/1) 2% · fair 103-2 underlay -61%, 10La Marinera (15/1) 1% · fair 80-1 underlay -81% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Race 2 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🌧️ Off-track: 11112987 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 111921248763105 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #11, #12, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 3 3 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 4Cash Customer (2/1) 33% · fair 2-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 5Where Ya At Vince (3/1) 26% · fair 3-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 8French Onion (7/2) 21% · fair 4-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 1Remys Gunsmoke (7/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -37%, 3Ohoopee (10/1) 7% · fair 25-2, 9Dusty Billy (12/1) 2% · fair 58-1 underlay -79% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 2Mas Que Nada (12/1) 1% · fair 151-2 underlay -84%, 6Drewpower (15/1) 1% · fair 219-2 underlay -86%, 7Markhamian (20/1) 1% · fair 114-1 underlay -82% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Race 3 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🌧️ Off-track: 458139 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 453812967 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #8, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 4 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 3Mr Negativity (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -25% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 1Alfie Solomons (6/1) 17% · fair 9-2 overlay +27% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 10Gottagetitback (2/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -71% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 2Kiltoom (10/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 6Mean Tweets (9/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 7Bohemian Style (12/1) 8% · fair 11-1, 5Crafty Conquest (7/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -46% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 4You're In Corey (20/1) 4% · fair 45-2, 8Rebel Empire (15/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -43%, 11Face Abarrio (15/1) 2% · fair 41-1 underlay -64%, 9Weekend Concerto (20/1) 2% · fair 93-2 underlay -57% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Race 4 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3101625 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 2106713911548 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #10, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 5 1 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $15,500 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 8Mcmoney (2/1) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -41% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 5Goose Hunter (9/1) 14% · fair 6-1 overlay +53% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 2Winter's Ghost (6/1) 14% · fair 13-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 10Tojo's Mojo (12/1) 12% · fair 15-2 overlay +61%, 6Forge In Fire (3/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -61%, 3Timeless Bounty (7/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -38% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 4General Issue (20/1) 6% · fair 31-2 overlay +31%, 9Tizawhitefacecat (15/1) 6% · fair 17-1, 1Rose's Pepino (10/1) 4% · fair 55-2 underlay -63%, 7Sargeant Barger (20/1) 2% · fair 85-2 underlay -53% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Race 5 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8625310 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 10584291637 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #2, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 6 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 4Spatula (7/2) 20% · fair 4-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 7I've Had Enough (6/1) 20% · fair 4-1 overlay +49% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 8Friendly Lucy (2/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -50% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 6Late Spring Night (8/1) 15% · fair 6-1 overlay +37%, 2Stormy Cut (3/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -51%, 5Bella Cattiva (10/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -43% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 1Kim's Money (15/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -38%, 3Coastalness (20/1) 2% · fair 56-1 underlay -64% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Race 6 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🌧️ Off-track: 842765 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 67485213 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #8, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 7 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $20,000 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 3A Single Glance (7/2) 41% · fair 3-2 overlay +141% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 5Wishful Thoughts (2/1) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -61% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 7Bonds Revenge (7/1) 12% · fair 7-1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 8Arapaho Nation (3/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -68%, 6Ocata (12/1) 6% · fair 31-2, 1Team Mischievous (15/1) 5% · fair 39-2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 2Candy For Cynthia (12/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -48%, 9Team Ramajama (10/1) 3% · fair 59-2 underlay -66%, 4Pure Electrum (20/1) 3% · fair 34-1 underlay -41% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Race 7 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale. we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay) The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short. Show the numbers
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🌧️ Off-track: 358796 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 361527894 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #7, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Race 8 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,500 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Win: | 12Mr. Colossal (9/5) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -57% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Place: | 8Gun Policy (2/1) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -53% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Show: | 11Averyz Day (5/2) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -47% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other contenders: | 3Souper Justified (3/1) 11% · fair 15-2 underlay -61%, 9Unaffected (6/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -52%, 5Ask Arthur (12/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -26%, 7Fast Fall (15/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -35% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Rest of field: | 4Tactics (10/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -61%, 2Aves Makin' Waves (9/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -66%, 1Imposter Syndrome (20/1) 3% · fair 35-1 underlay -43%, 10Move In Silence (7/1) 3% · fair 37-1 underlay -81%, 6Rockible (20/1) 2% · fair 79-2 underlay -49% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
Race 8 — chance of winning Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds. ◀ marks the published selection. Show the numbers
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🌧️ Off-track: 128113910 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎯 Longshots: 128115746231910 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #8, #11, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Mountaineer Park — in-the-money rate
How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 596 graded races at Mountaineer Park, 2026-04-13 to 2026-11-09.
In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.
Show the numbers
| Group | Win rate | Races |
|---|---|---|
| Our top pick | 66.6% | 596 |
| Morning-line favourite | 64.4% | 596 |
| Race 1 1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000 | |
| Win: | 12Blumoon Fire (3/2) |
| Place: | 7Temple City Taboo (9/1) |
| Show: | 13Starship Discovery (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 11Gio Linh (5/1), 2Itza Kitty (3/1), 5Crafty Lawyer (6/1), 3Missus Seki (7/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Cole's Valentine (2/1), 6Pivot To The Power (12/1), 9Bailey's Girl (15/1), 8My Angel Does (20/1), 14Dangereuse (20/1), 10Vai Gattina (10/1), 4Round In Circles (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 121213115 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7121356112131491084 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #7, #13, #11 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $22,000 | |
| Win: | 1Duncan Idaho (9/5) |
| Place: | 11Kosher Cowboy (2/1) |
| Show: | 12Clyde's Green Go (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 9You Bet A Fortune (4/1), 8Holiday House (6/1), 4Button Box (9/1), 7Jimmy The Hat (7/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Lil Red Beaudette (10/1), 6Yes I Am Free (15/1), 3Housebuilder (20/1), 5Dropkick Murphy (20/1), 10La Marinera (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 11112987 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 111921248763105 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #11, #12, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 3 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500 | |
| Win: | 7Markhamian (20/1) no strong opinion This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection. |
| Place: | 4Cash Customer (2/1) |
| Show: | 5Where Ya At Vince (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8French Onion (7/2), 3Ohoopee (10/1), 1Remys Gunsmoke (7/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9Dusty Billy (12/1), 2Mas Que Nada (12/1), 6Drewpower (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 458173 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 453812967 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #5, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 11Face Abarrio (15/1) no strong opinion This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection. |
| Place: | 3Mr Negativity (3/1) |
| Show: | 2Kiltoom (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 10Gottagetitback (2/1), 1Alfie Solomons (6/1), 7Bohemian Style (12/1), 6Mean Tweets (9/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5Crafty Conquest (7/1), 4You're In Corey (20/1), 8Rebel Empire (15/1), 9Weekend Concerto (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 10312115 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2106713911548 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #3, #2, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $15,500 | |
| Win: | 8Mcmoney (2/1) |
| Place: | 2Winter's Ghost (6/1) |
| Show: | 10Tojo's Mojo (12/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5Goose Hunter (9/1), 6Forge In Fire (3/1), 3Timeless Bounty (7/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9Tizawhitefacecat (15/1), 4General Issue (20/1), 1Rose's Pepino (10/1), 7Sargeant Barger (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8623510 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 10584291637 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #10, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 7I've Had Enough (6/1) no strong opinion This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection. |
| Place: | 8Friendly Lucy (2/1) |
| Show: | 4Spatula (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6Late Spring Night (8/1), 2Stormy Cut (3/1), 5Bella Cattiva (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Kim's Money (15/1), 3Coastalness (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 824765 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 67485213 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 3A Single Glance (7/2) |
| Place: | 5Wishful Thoughts (2/1) |
| Show: | 7Bonds Revenge (7/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8Arapaho Nation (3/1), 6Ocata (12/1), 1Team Mischievous (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9Team Ramajama (10/1), 2Candy For Cynthia (12/1), 4Pure Electrum (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 538769 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 361527894 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #7, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,500 | |
| Win: | 8Gun Policy (2/1) |
| Place: | 12Mr. Colossal (9/5) |
| Show: | 11Averyz Day (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3Souper Justified (3/1), 9Unaffected (6/1), 2Aves Makin' Waves (9/1), 5Ask Arthur (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7Fast Fall (15/1), 4Tactics (10/1), 10Move In Silence (7/1), 6Rockible (20/1), 1Imposter Syndrome (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 12811392 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 128115746231910 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #12, #11, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5, |
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ
Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.
| Race 1 | AI Exacta: #12 over #13 ($1 straight; box #12-#13 for cover) Trifecta: #12 over #7, #5, #13 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 2 | AI Exacta: #1 over #11 ($1 straight; box #1-#11 for cover) Trifecta: #9 over #1, #11, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 3 | AI Exacta: #4 over #5 ($1 straight; box #4-#5 for cover) Trifecta: #5 over #1, #4, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 4 | AI Exacta: #10 over #3 ($1 straight; box #10-#3 for cover) Trifecta: #3 over #2, #1, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 5 | AI Exacta: #8 over #2 ($1 straight; box #8-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #4, #8, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 6 | AI Exacta: #8 over #4 ($1 straight; box #8-#4 for cover) Trifecta: #7 over #8, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 7 | AI Exacta: #3 over #5 ($1 straight; box #3-#5 for cover) Trifecta: #3 over #5, #7, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 8 | AI Exacta: #12 over #8 ($1 straight; box #12-#8 for cover) Trifecta: #12 over #8, #3, #11 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
| Kelly Edge Plays (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder)) Morning-line reliability: +0.32 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it) Weekend sizing: ×0.95 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged) Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake | |||||||
| Race | Horse | ML | Live | P(win) | Edge | ¼ Kelly | Bet on $ bankroll |
| 4 | 2Kiltoom | 10/1 | — | 12.4% | +30.4% | 0.76% | $0.76 |
| 5 | 10Tojo'S Mojo | 12/1 | — | 8.9% | +13.1% | 0.27% | $0.27 |
| 5 | 4General Issue ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer | 20/1 | — | 4.5% | +-4.4% | 0.00% | $0.00 |
| TOTAL across 3 plays: | 1.0% | $1.03 | |||||
| Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly. ⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still. | |||||||
| 💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line. | |||||||
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000 | |
| Win: | 12Blumoon Fire (3/2) |
| Place: | 11Gio Linh (5/1) |
| Show: | 7Temple City Taboo (9/1) |
| Other contenders: | 13Starship Discovery (5/1), 5Crafty Lawyer (6/1), 1Cole's Valentine (2/1), 2Itza Kitty (3/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Missus Seki (7/1), 6Pivot To The Power (12/1), 14Dangereuse (20/1), 9Bailey's Girl (15/1), 4Round In Circles (20/1), 8My Angel Does (20/1), 10Vai Gattina (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 121211135 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7121356112131491084 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #11, #7, #13 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $22,000 | |
| Win: | 11Kosher Cowboy (2/1) |
| Place: | 9You Bet A Fortune (4/1) |
| Show: | 2Lil Red Beaudette (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1Duncan Idaho (9/5), 12Clyde's Green Go (3/1), 8Holiday House (6/1), 7Jimmy The Hat (7/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4Button Box (9/1), 6Yes I Am Free (15/1), 3Housebuilder (20/1), 5Dropkick Murphy (20/1), 10La Marinera (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 11112987 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 111921248763105 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #9, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 3 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500 | |
| Win: | 5Where Ya At Vince (3/1) |
| Place: | 4Cash Customer (2/1) |
| Show: | 8French Onion (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 1Remys Gunsmoke (7/1), 3Ohoopee (10/1), 7Markhamian (20/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9Dusty Billy (12/1), 2Mas Que Nada (12/1), 6Drewpower (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 458139 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 453812967 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #8, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 3Mr Negativity (3/1) |
| Place: | 2Kiltoom (10/1) |
| Show: | 10Gottagetitback (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1Alfie Solomons (6/1), 4You're In Corey (20/1), 7Bohemian Style (12/1), 11Face Abarrio (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6Mean Tweets (9/1), 5Crafty Conquest (7/1), 9Weekend Concerto (20/1), 8Rebel Empire (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3101256 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2106713911548 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #10, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $15,500 | |
| Win: | 8Mcmoney (2/1) |
| Place: | 4General Issue (20/1) |
| Show: | 2Winter's Ghost (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5Goose Hunter (9/1), 7Sargeant Barger (20/1), 6Forge In Fire (3/1) |
| Rest of field: | 10Tojo's Mojo (12/1), 3Timeless Bounty (7/1), 9Tizawhitefacecat (15/1), 1Rose's Pepino (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8625310 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 10584291637 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #2, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 7I've Had Enough (6/1) |
| Place: | 8Friendly Lucy (2/1) |
| Show: | 6Late Spring Night (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2Stormy Cut (3/1), 4Spatula (7/2), 5Bella Cattiva (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Kim's Money (15/1), 3Coastalness (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 827465 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 67485213 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #6, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 3A Single Glance (7/2) |
| Place: | 7Bonds Revenge (7/1) |
| Show: | 5Wishful Thoughts (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1Team Mischievous (15/1), 6Ocata (12/1), 8Arapaho Nation (3/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Candy For Cynthia (12/1), 9Team Ramajama (10/1), 4Pure Electrum (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 538769 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 361527894 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,500 | |
| Win: | 8Gun Policy (2/1) |
| Place: | 5Ask Arthur (12/1) |
| Show: | 11Averyz Day (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 12Mr. Colossal (9/5), 3Souper Justified (3/1), 2Aves Makin' Waves (9/1), 9Unaffected (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 10Move In Silence (7/1), 6Rockible (20/1), 7Fast Fall (15/1), 4Tactics (10/1), 1Imposter Syndrome (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 81211395 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 128115746231910 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #11, #12 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000 | |
| Win: | 12Blumoon Fire (3/2) |
| Place: | 7Temple City Taboo (9/1) |
| Show: | 5Crafty Lawyer (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 13Starship Discovery (5/1), 2Itza Kitty (3/1), 3Missus Seki (7/1), 1Cole's Valentine (2/1) |
| Rest of field: | 11Gio Linh (5/1), 6Pivot To The Power (12/1), 8My Angel Does (20/1), 9Bailey's Girl (15/1), 14Dangereuse (20/1), 4Round In Circles (20/1), 10Vai Gattina (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 12121357 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7121356112131491084 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #7, #5, #13 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance · Purse $22,000 | |
| Win: | 9You Bet A Fortune (4/1) |
| Place: | 1Duncan Idaho (9/5) |
| Show: | 11Kosher Cowboy (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7Jimmy The Hat (7/1), 12Clyde's Green Go (3/1), 8Holiday House (6/1), 2Lil Red Beaudette (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4Button Box (9/1), 6Yes I Am Free (15/1), 3Housebuilder (20/1), 10La Marinera (15/1), 5Dropkick Murphy (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 11191287 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 111921248763105 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #1, #11, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 3 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500 | |
| Win: | 5Where Ya At Vince (3/1) |
| Place: | 1Remys Gunsmoke (7/1) |
| Show: | 4Cash Customer (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8French Onion (7/2), 3Ohoopee (10/1), 7Markhamian (20/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9Dusty Billy (12/1), 2Mas Que Nada (12/1), 6Drewpower (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 458139 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 453812967 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #4, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 3Mr Negativity (3/1) |
| Place: | 2Kiltoom (10/1) |
| Show: | 1Alfie Solomons (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 10Gottagetitback (2/1), 6Mean Tweets (9/1), 5Crafty Conquest (7/1), 7Bohemian Style (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4You're In Corey (20/1), 8Rebel Empire (15/1), 11Face Abarrio (15/1), 9Weekend Concerto (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1031256 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2106713911548 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #1, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $15,500 | |
| Win: | 2Winter's Ghost (6/1) |
| Place: | 4General Issue (20/1) |
| Show: | 8Mcmoney (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5Goose Hunter (9/1), 10Tojo's Mojo (12/1), 6Forge In Fire (3/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3Timeless Bounty (7/1), 9Tizawhitefacecat (15/1), 1Rose's Pepino (10/1), 7Sargeant Barger (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8625310 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 10584291637 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #8, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 7I've Had Enough (6/1) |
| Place: | 8Friendly Lucy (2/1) |
| Show: | 4Spatula (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2Stormy Cut (3/1), 6Late Spring Night (8/1), 5Bella Cattiva (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1Kim's Money (15/1), 3Coastalness (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 824765 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 67485213 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $20,000 | |
| Win: | 3A Single Glance (7/2) |
| Place: | 5Wishful Thoughts (2/1) |
| Show: | 7Bonds Revenge (7/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1Team Mischievous (15/1), 6Ocata (12/1), 8Arapaho Nation (3/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2Candy For Cynthia (12/1), 9Team Ramajama (10/1), 4Pure Electrum (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 538769 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 361527894 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #7, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,500 | |
| Win: | 12Mr. Colossal (9/5) |
| Place: | 8Gun Policy (2/1) |
| Show: | 3Souper Justified (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 11Averyz Day (5/2), 9Unaffected (6/1), 5Ask Arthur (12/1), 2Aves Makin' Waves (9/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7Fast Fall (15/1), 4Tactics (10/1), 6Rockible (20/1), 10Move In Silence (7/1), 1Imposter Syndrome (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 12811392 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 128115746231910 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #8, #3, #11 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1, |
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ
Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.
| Pick 3 R1-3 | R1: #12,#7,#5 (50%) / R2: #1,#11,#12 (56%) / R3: #4,#5,#8 (80%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22% |
| Pick 3 R2-4 | R2: #1,#11,#12 (56%) / R3: #4,#5,#8 (80%) / R4: #3,#1,#10 (50%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22% |
| Pick 3 R5-7 | R5: #8,#5,#2 (51%) / R6: #4,#7,#8 (60%) / R7: #3,#5,#7 (69%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21% |
| Pick 3 R6-8 | R6: #4,#7,#8 (60%) / R7: #3,#5,#7 (69%) / R8: #12,#8,#11 (56%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23% |
| Pick 4 R3-6 | R3: #4,#5,#8 (80%) / R4: #3,#1,#10 (50%) / R5: #8,#5,#2 (51%) / R6: #4,#7,#8 (60%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 12% |
| Pick 4 R5-8 | R5: #8,#5,#2 (51%) / R6: #4,#7,#8 (60%) / R7: #3,#5,#7 (69%) / R8: #12,#8,#11 (56%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 12% |
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
| A SINGLE GLANCE | ALFIE SOLOMONS | ARAPAHO NATION | ASK ARTHUR | AVERYZ DAY |
| BAILEY'S GIRL | BELLA CATTIVA | BLUMOON FIRE | BOHEMIAN STYLE | BONDS REVENGE |
| CANDY FOR CYNTHIA | CASH CUSTOMER | CLYDE'S GREEN GO | COASTALNESS | COLE'S VALENTINE |
| CRAFTY LAWYER | DANGEREUSE | DREWPOWER | DROPKICK MURPHY | DUNCAN IDAHO |
| FACE ABARRIO | FAST FALL | FORGE IN FIRE | FRENCH ONION | FRIENDLY LUCY |
| GIO LINH | GOOSE HUNTER | GOTTAGETITBACK | GUN POLICY | HOLIDAY HOUSE |
| I'VE HAD ENOUGH | IMPOSTER SYNDROME | ITZA KITTY | JIMMY THE HAT | KILTOOM |
| KOSHER COWBOY | LA MARINERA | LATE SPRING NIGHT | LIL RED BEAUDETTE | MARKHAMIAN |
| MCMONEY | MEAN TWEETS | MISSUS SEKI | MOVE IN SILENCE | MR NEGATIVITY |
| MY ANGEL DOES | OCATA | OHOOPEE | PIVOT TO THE POWER | PURE ELECTRUM |
| REMYS GUNSMOKE | ROCKIBLE | ROSE'S PEPINO | ROUND IN CIRCLES | SARGEANT BARGER |
| SPATULA | STARSHIP DISCOVERY | STORMY CUT | TACTICS | TEAM MISCHIEVOUS |
| TEMPLE CITY TABOO | TIMELESS BOUNTY | TIZAWHITEFACECAT | TOJO'S MOJO | UNAFFECTED |
| WEEKEND CONCERTO | WHERE YA AT VINCE | WINTER'S GHOST | WISHFUL THOUGHTS | YES I AM FREE |
| YOU'RE IN COREY |
Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
