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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Mountaineer Park, November 15, 2026

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AI Morning Update — overnight changes applied

Our AI picks are computed the night before from the official past performances. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes — the same information the human experts have when they publish — and re-rank any affected race. In maiden races, where late money has the best record, Algo 2's morning pick follows the live betting favourite once the pool is open. Changes from last night's published picks are listed here.

TrackRaceModelNew Top PickWhy
MNR4Model Weight set 3#8 – Crime Lord2 scratch(es)
MNR5Model Algo 1#7 – Hoylake3 scratch(es)
MNR5Model Algo 2 (Ensemble)#7 – Hoylake3 scratch(es)
MNR5Model Algo 3 (Win Prob)#7 – Hoylake3 scratch(es)
MNR5Model Weight set 3#7 – Hoylake3 scratch(es)
MNR8Model Algo 1#11 – Tammy'S Cruiser4 scratch(es)
MNR8Model Algo 2 (Ensemble)#11 – Tammy'S Cruiser4 scratch(es)
MNR8Model Algo 3 (Win Prob)#11 – Tammy'S Cruiser4 scratch(es)

Plays voided by scratches — these published value plays are officially scratched; win bets on them are refunds, so strike them from your card:

Where the experts back our strongest pick today

In 5 of today's 8 races, the published handicappers landed on the same horse as Algo 2, our best-performing model. Over the last 90 days (4,864 graded races), the races where they agreed won 37.8% of the time against 29.3% where they did not.

Today's agreement races — MNR 1, 2, 5, 6, 7.

Which horse the two agree on is part of Algo 2, included with Insider and above. The race numbers above are free to everyone: if you are playing these races, you now know the experts and our strongest model are pointing the same way.


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Mountaineer Park — in-the-money rate

How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 274 graded races at Mountaineer Park, 2026-08-16 to 2026-11-11.

0%22%43%65%86%Our top pick: 69.0% from 274 racesOur top pick69.0%Morning-line favourite: 66.4% from 274 racesMorning-line favourite66.4%

In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick69.0%274
Morning-line favourite66.4%274
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $15,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Alcohol (2/1)
Place:1Xhilaratingpurpose (7/2)
Show:3Lamporghini (3/1)
Other contenders:8Datttsafancyfox (7/1), 6Mean To Me (10/1), 7Machen Reigns (20/1)
Rest of field:9Tall Girl (12/1), 5Take Wings (15/1), 4Ceviche (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 213869
🎯 Longshots: 261378954
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $9,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Kukuk (2/1)
Place:10Watch The Law (3/1)
Show:3Springs (9/1)
Other contenders:2Hello Greg (7/1), 7Not Like Us (6/1), 9Coaldigger (10/1)
Rest of field:8El Halcon (12/1), 1Walk On Broadway (15/1), 4Midnight Stroller (20/1), 5The Groom's Jul (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6103279
🎯 Longshots: 36102981745
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #10, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $8,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Toronto Hoops (2/1)
Place:1Rosie Ann Rules (7/2)
Show:5Snookie Jones (3/1)
Other contenders:8Don'tmindifido (8/1), 7Mi Babe (6/1), 4Super Pachi (10/1)
Rest of field:3Mo Breezy (20/1), 6Brahmastra (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 215874
🎯 Longshots: 81257346
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Crime Lord (2/1)
Place:4Elmore (7/2)
Show:7Hidden Favor (3/1)
Other contenders:2U Crocs (7/1), 1Mexicali Mike (20/1), 5Park Ave Prince (10/1)
Rest of field:6Greatdayforhockey (12/1), 3Hey Batter Batter (15/1), 9Hunted Prayer (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 847215
🎯 Longshots: 184726593
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4How About It (2/1)
Place:7Hoylake (3/1)
Show:3Quistmer (6/1)
Other contenders:2Breezer (9/1), 8Standard Of Proof (7/1), 6Misterchilliwilli (10/1)
Rest of field:5Law Of The Jungle (12/1), 1Game Boy Benny (20/1), 10Boldness (20/1), 9Easy Fast (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 473826
🎯 Longshots: 26417510398
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Capo Luigi (5/2)
Place:4Road To Stardom (7/2)
Show:2Bella's Prayer (2/1)
Other contenders:3Tappin Royalty (9/2), 6You Are Awesome (10/1)
Rest of field:5Orb Of The Boro (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 142365
🎯 Longshots: 142635
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Atkins (2/1)
Place:3Big Lucky (9/2)
Show:1Forge In Fire (5/2)
Other contenders:5Trigger Point (15/1), 2Accona (7/1)
Rest of field:6Spoonie (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 431625
🎯 Longshots: 453126
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:12Richiesgoldengirl (9/5)
Place:11Tammy's Cruiser (5/2)
Show:7Butterfly Effect (2/1)
Other contenders:8Morgan's Bluff (3/1), 13Jane Plain (5/1), 3Serene Waters (6/1), 14Yalorde (6/1)
Rest of field:5Dont Blame Court (9/1), 10Mitole's Secret (7/1), 4Bowling Blue (10/1), 6Strawberry Sky (15/1), 1Siljim (20/1), 9Revocata (12/1), 2Fiery Side (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 121178133
🎯 Longshots: 1112574831016131429
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #11, #7, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Mountaineer Park — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 189 graded races at Mountaineer Park, 2026-09-06 to 2026-11-11.

0%11%22%33%44%Our top pick: 35.4% from 189 racesOur top pick35.4%Morning-line favourite: 31.7% from 189 racesMorning-line favourite31.7%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick35.4%189
Morning-line favourite31.7%189
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $15,000
Win:2Alcohol (2/1) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -31%
Place:1Xhilaratingpurpose (7/2) 24% · fair 3-1
Show:3Lamporghini (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -40%
Other contenders:8Datttsafancyfox (7/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 6Mean To Me (10/1) 9% · fair 19-2, 7Machen Reigns (20/1) 4% · fair 22-1
Rest of field:5Take Wings (15/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -41%, 9Tall Girl (12/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -64%, 4Ceviche (12/1) 2% · fair 81-2 underlay -70%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Alcohol — 25.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Alcohol25.6% ◀Xhilaratingpurpose — 24.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Xhilaratingpurpose24.0%Lamporghini — 16.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Lamporghini16.7%Datttsafancyfox — 10.9% win probability, morning line 7/1Datttsafancyfox10.9%Mean To Me — 9.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Mean To Me9.3%Machen Reigns — 4.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Machen Reigns4.4%Take Wings — 3.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Take Wings3.8%Tall Girl — 2.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Tall Girl2.9%Ceviche — 2.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Ceviche2.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Alcohol25.6%2/1
Xhilaratingpurpose24.0%3.5/1
Lamporghini16.7%3/1
Datttsafancyfox10.9%7/1
Mean To Me9.3%10/1
Machen Reigns4.4%20/1
Take Wings3.8%15/1
Tall Girl2.9%12/1
Ceviche2.4%12/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherAlcohol: model 25.6% vs market 25.9% (-0.4 points)Alcohol-0.4Xhilaratingpurpose: model 24.0% vs market 17.3% (+6.7 points)Xhilaratingpurpose+6.7Lamporghini: model 16.7% vs market 19.4% (-2.8 points)Lamporghini-2.8Datttsafancyfox: model 10.9% vs market 9.7% (+1.2 points)Datttsafancyfox+1.2Mean To Me: model 9.3% vs market 7.1% (+2.2 points)Mean To Me+2.2Machen Reigns: model 4.4% vs market 3.7% (+0.7 points)Machen Reigns+0.7Take Wings: model 3.8% vs market 4.9% (-1.1 points)Take Wings-1.1Tall Girl: model 2.9% vs market 6.0% (-3.0 points)Tall Girl-3.0Ceviche: model 2.4% vs market 6.0% (-3.6 points)Ceviche-3.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Alcohol25.6%25.9%-0.4
Xhilaratingpurpose24.0%17.3%+6.7
Lamporghini16.7%19.4%-2.8
Datttsafancyfox10.9%9.7%+1.2
Mean To Me9.3%7.1%+2.2
Machen Reigns4.4%3.7%+0.7
Take Wings3.8%4.9%-1.1
Tall Girl2.9%6.0%-3.0
Ceviche2.4%6.0%-3.6
🌧️ Off-track: 213869
🎯 Longshots: 261378954
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:6Kukuk (2/1) 31% · fair 2-1
Place:10Watch The Law (3/1) 30% · fair 5-2 overlay +27%
Show:3Springs (9/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:2Hello Greg (7/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 7Not Like Us (6/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -68%, 9Coaldigger (10/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -54%
Rest of field:8El Halcon (12/1) 3% · fair 67-2 underlay -64%, 1Walk On Broadway (15/1) 3% · fair 36-1 underlay -58%, 4Midnight Stroller (20/1) 1% · fair 139-2 underlay -71%, 5The Groom's Jul (20/1) 1% · fair 169-2 underlay -76%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Kukuk — 31.0% win probability, morning line 2/1Kukuk31.0% ◀Watch The Law — 29.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Watch The Law29.7%Springs — 11.8% win probability, morning line 9/1Springs11.8%Hello Greg — 9.9% win probability, morning line 7/1Hello Greg9.9%Not Like Us — 5.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Not Like Us5.0%Coaldigger — 4.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Coaldigger4.4%El Halcon — 2.9% win probability, morning line 12/1El Halcon2.9%Walk On Broadway — 2.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Walk On Broadway2.7%Midnight Stroller — 1.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Midnight Stroller1.4%The Groom'S Jul — 1.2% win probability, morning line 20/1The Groom'S Jul1.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Kukuk31.0%2/1
Watch The Law29.7%3/1
Springs11.8%9/1
Hello Greg9.9%7/1
Not Like Us5.0%6/1
Coaldigger4.4%10/1
El Halcon2.9%12/1
Walk On Broadway2.7%15/1
Midnight Stroller1.4%20/1
The Groom'S Jul1.2%20/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherKukuk: model 31.0% vs market 26.1% (+4.9 points)Kukuk+4.9Watch The Law: model 29.7% vs market 19.6% (+10.1 points)Watch The Law+10.1Springs: model 11.8% vs market 7.8% (+3.9 points)Springs+3.9Hello Greg: model 9.9% vs market 9.8% (+0.1 points)Hello Greg+0.1Not Like Us: model 5.0% vs market 11.2% (-6.2 points)Not Like Us-6.2Coaldigger: model 4.4% vs market 7.1% (-2.7 points)Coaldigger-2.7El Halcon: model 2.9% vs market 6.0% (-3.1 points)El Halcon-3.1Walk On Broadway: model 2.7% vs market 4.9% (-2.2 points)Walk On Broadway-2.2Midnight Stroller: model 1.4% vs market 3.7% (-2.3 points)Midnight Stroller-2.3The Groom'S Jul: model 1.2% vs market 3.7% (-2.6 points)The Groom'S Jul-2.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Kukuk31.0%26.1%+4.9
Watch The Law29.7%19.6%+10.1
Springs11.8%7.8%+3.9
Hello Greg9.9%9.8%+0.1
Not Like Us5.0%11.2%-6.2
Coaldigger4.4%7.1%-2.7
El Halcon2.9%6.0%-3.1
Walk On Broadway2.7%4.9%-2.2
Midnight Stroller1.4%3.7%-2.3
The Groom'S Jul1.2%3.7%-2.6
🌧️ Off-track: 6102739
🎯 Longshots: 36102981745
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #10, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $8,500
Win:1Rosie Ann Rules (7/2) 27% · fair 3-1 overlay +26%
Place:2Toronto Hoops (2/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -50%
Show:8Don'tmindifido (8/1) 16% · fair 5-1 overlay +53%
Other contenders:5Snookie Jones (3/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -51%, 7Mi Babe (6/1) 13% · fair 7-1, 4Super Pachi (10/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -46%
Rest of field:3Mo Breezy (20/1) 3% · fair 57-2 underlay -30%, 6Brahmastra (15/1) 2% · fair 83-2 underlay -64%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Rosie Ann Rules — 26.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Rosie Ann Rules26.5% ◀Toronto Hoops — 19.9% win probability, morning line 2/1Toronto Hoops19.9%Don'Tmindifido — 16.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Don'Tmindifido16.1%Snookie Jones — 14.1% win probability, morning line 3/1Snookie Jones14.1%Mi Babe — 12.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Mi Babe12.6%Super Pachi — 5.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Super Pachi5.1%Mo Breezy — 3.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Mo Breezy3.4%Brahmastra — 2.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Brahmastra2.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Rosie Ann Rules26.5%3.5/1
Toronto Hoops19.9%2/1
Don'Tmindifido16.1%8/1
Snookie Jones14.1%3/1
Mi Babe12.6%6/1
Super Pachi5.1%10/1
Mo Breezy3.4%20/1
Brahmastra2.3%15/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRosie Ann Rules: model 26.5% vs market 17.6% (+8.9 points)Rosie Ann Rules+8.9Toronto Hoops: model 19.9% vs market 26.4% (-6.6 points)Toronto Hoops-6.6Don'Tmindifido: model 16.1% vs market 8.8% (+7.2 points)Don'Tmindifido+7.2Snookie Jones: model 14.1% vs market 19.8% (-5.7 points)Snookie Jones-5.7Mi Babe: model 12.6% vs market 11.3% (+1.2 points)Mi Babe+1.2Super Pachi: model 5.1% vs market 7.2% (-2.1 points)Super Pachi-2.1Mo Breezy: model 3.4% vs market 3.8% (-0.4 points)Mo Breezy-0.4Brahmastra: model 2.3% vs market 5.0% (-2.6 points)Brahmastra-2.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Rosie Ann Rules26.5%17.6%+8.9
Toronto Hoops19.9%26.4%-6.6
Don'Tmindifido16.1%8.8%+7.2
Snookie Jones14.1%19.8%-5.7
Mi Babe12.6%11.3%+1.2
Super Pachi5.1%7.2%-2.1
Mo Breezy3.4%3.8%-0.4
Brahmastra2.3%5.0%-2.6
🌧️ Off-track: 125784
🎯 Longshots: 81257346
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #8, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:8Crime Lord (2/1) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -33%
Place:7Hidden Favor (3/1) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -42%
Show:4Elmore (7/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -38%
Other contenders:2U Crocs (7/1) 14% · fair 13-2, 1Mexicali Mike (20/1) 12% · fair 7-1 overlay +177%, 5Park Ave Prince (10/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -37%
Rest of field:6Greatdayforhockey (12/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -25%, 3Hey Batter Batter (15/1) 3% · fair 30-1 underlay -50%, 9Hunted Prayer (12/1) 3% · fair 71-2 underlay -66%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Crime Lord — 25.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Crime Lord25.1% ◀Hidden Favor — 16.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Hidden Favor16.3%Elmore — 15.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Elmore15.0%U Crocs — 13.7% win probability, morning line 7/1U Crocs13.7%Mexicali Mike — 12.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Mexicali Mike12.2%Park Ave Prince — 5.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Park Ave Prince5.9%Greatdayforhockey — 5.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Greatdayforhockey5.9%Hey Batter Batter — 3.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Hey Batter Batter3.2%Hunted Prayer — 2.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Hunted Prayer2.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Crime Lord25.1%2/1
Hidden Favor16.3%3/1
Elmore15.0%3.5/1
U Crocs13.7%7/1
Mexicali Mike12.2%20/1
Park Ave Prince5.9%10/1
Greatdayforhockey5.9%12/1
Hey Batter Batter3.2%15/1
Hunted Prayer2.7%12/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCrime Lord: model 25.1% vs market 25.9% (-0.8 points)Crime Lord-0.8Hidden Favor: model 16.3% vs market 19.4% (-3.2 points)Hidden Favor-3.2Elmore: model 15.0% vs market 17.3% (-2.3 points)Elmore-2.3U Crocs: model 13.7% vs market 9.7% (+4.0 points)U Crocs+4.0Mexicali Mike: model 12.2% vs market 3.7% (+8.4 points)Mexicali Mike+8.4Park Ave Prince: model 5.9% vs market 7.1% (-1.2 points)Park Ave Prince-1.2Greatdayforhockey: model 5.9% vs market 6.0% (-0.1 points)Greatdayforhockey-0.1Hey Batter Batter: model 3.2% vs market 4.9% (-1.7 points)Hey Batter Batter-1.7Hunted Prayer: model 2.7% vs market 6.0% (-3.2 points)Hunted Prayer-3.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Crime Lord25.1%25.9%-0.8
Hidden Favor16.3%19.4%-3.2
Elmore15.0%17.3%-2.3
U Crocs13.7%9.7%+4.0
Mexicali Mike12.2%3.7%+8.4
Park Ave Prince5.9%7.1%-1.2
Greatdayforhockey5.9%6.0%-0.1
Hey Batter Batter3.2%4.9%-1.7
Hunted Prayer2.7%6.0%-3.2
🌧️ Off-track: 874256
🎯 Longshots: 184726593
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500
Win:4How About It (2/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -49%
Place:7Hoylake (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -27%
Show:2Breezer (9/1) 11% · fair 8-1
Other contenders:3Quistmer (6/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -31%, 6Misterchilliwilli (10/1) 10% · fair 19-2, 8Standard Of Proof (7/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -31%
Rest of field:5Law Of The Jungle (12/1) 6% · fair 15-1, 1Game Boy Benny (20/1) 5% · fair 35-2, 10Boldness (20/1) 5% · fair 21-1, 9Easy Fast (15/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -41%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

How About It — 20.3% win probability, morning line 2/1How About It20.3% ◀Hoylake — 19.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Hoylake19.5%Breezer — 11.2% win probability, morning line 9/1Breezer11.2%Quistmer — 10.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Quistmer10.4%Misterchilliwilli — 9.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Misterchilliwilli9.5%Standard Of Proof — 9.0% win probability, morning line 7/1Standard Of Proof9.0%Law Of The Jungle — 6.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Law Of The Jungle6.3%Game Boy Benny — 5.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Game Boy Benny5.5%Boldness — 4.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Boldness4.5%Easy Fast — 3.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Easy Fast3.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
How About It20.3%2/1
Hoylake19.5%3/1
Breezer11.2%9/1
Quistmer10.4%6/1
Misterchilliwilli9.5%10/1
Standard Of Proof9.0%7/1
Law Of The Jungle6.3%12/1
Game Boy Benny5.5%20/1
Boldness4.5%20/1
Easy Fast3.8%15/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHow About It: model 20.3% vs market 26.1% (-5.8 points)How About It-5.8Hoylake: model 19.5% vs market 19.6% (-0.0 points)Hoylake-0.0Breezer: model 11.2% vs market 7.8% (+3.4 points)Breezer+3.4Quistmer: model 10.4% vs market 11.2% (-0.8 points)Quistmer-0.8Misterchilliwilli: model 9.5% vs market 7.1% (+2.4 points)Misterchilliwilli+2.4Standard Of Proof: model 9.0% vs market 9.8% (-0.8 points)Standard Of Proof-0.8Law Of The Jungle: model 6.3% vs market 6.0% (+0.3 points)Law Of The Jungle+0.3Game Boy Benny: model 5.5% vs market 3.7% (+1.7 points)Game Boy Benny+1.7Boldness: model 4.5% vs market 3.7% (+0.8 points)Boldness+0.8Easy Fast: model 3.8% vs market 4.9% (-1.1 points)Easy Fast-1.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
How About It20.3%26.1%-5.8
Hoylake19.5%19.6%-0.0
Breezer11.2%7.8%+3.4
Quistmer10.4%11.2%-0.8
Misterchilliwilli9.5%7.1%+2.4
Standard Of Proof9.0%9.8%-0.8
Law Of The Jungle6.3%6.0%+0.3
Game Boy Benny5.5%3.7%+1.7
Boldness4.5%3.7%+0.8
Easy Fast3.8%4.9%-1.1
🌧️ Off-track: 473826
🎯 Longshots: 26417510398
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:1Capo Luigi (5/2) 41% · fair 3-2 overlay +72%
Place:4Road To Stardom (7/2) 25% · fair 3-1
Show:2Bella's Prayer (2/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -58%
Other contenders:3Tappin Royalty (9/2) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -52%, 6You Are Awesome (10/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -49%
Rest of field:5Orb Of The Boro (15/1) 3% · fair 71-2 underlay -58%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Capo Luigi — 40.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Capo Luigi40.7% ◀Road To Stardom — 24.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Road To Stardom24.7%Bella'S Prayer — 17.4% win probability, morning line 2/1Bella'S Prayer17.4%Tappin Royalty — 9.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Tappin Royalty9.6%You Are Awesome — 4.8% win probability, morning line 10/1You Are Awesome4.8%Orb Of The Boro — 2.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Orb Of The Boro2.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Capo Luigi40.7%2.5/1
Road To Stardom24.7%3.5/1
Bella'S Prayer17.4%2/1
Tappin Royalty9.6%4.5/1
You Are Awesome4.8%10/1
Orb Of The Boro2.7%15/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCapo Luigi: model 40.7% vs market 24.3% (+16.5 points)Capo Luigi+16.5Road To Stardom: model 24.7% vs market 18.9% (+5.8 points)Road To Stardom+5.8Bella'S Prayer: model 17.4% vs market 28.3% (-11.0 points)Bella'S Prayer-11.0Tappin Royalty: model 9.6% vs market 15.5% (-5.8 points)Tappin Royalty-5.8You Are Awesome: model 4.8% vs market 7.7% (-2.9 points)You Are Awesome-2.9Orb Of The Boro: model 2.7% vs market 5.3% (-2.6 points)Orb Of The Boro-2.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Capo Luigi40.7%24.3%+16.5
Road To Stardom24.7%18.9%+5.8
Bella'S Prayer17.4%28.3%-11.0
Tappin Royalty9.6%15.5%-5.8
You Are Awesome4.8%7.7%-2.9
Orb Of The Boro2.7%5.3%-2.6
🌧️ Off-track: 124365
🎯 Longshots: 142635
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000
Win:4Atkins (2/1) 49% · fair 1-1 overlay +90%
Place:3Big Lucky (9/2) 19% · fair 9-2
Show:1Forge In Fire (5/2) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -64%
Other contenders:2Accona (7/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -40%, 5Trigger Point (15/1) 6% · fair 15-1
Rest of field:6Spoonie (5/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -68%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Atkins — 48.7% win probability, morning line 2/1Atkins48.7% ◀Big Lucky — 18.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Big Lucky18.5%Forge In Fire — 12.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Forge In Fire12.7%Accona — 7.9% win probability, morning line 7/1Accona7.9%Trigger Point — 6.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Trigger Point6.2%Spoonie — 6.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Spoonie6.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Atkins48.7%2/1
Big Lucky18.5%4.5/1
Forge In Fire12.7%2.5/1
Accona7.9%7/1
Trigger Point6.2%15/1
Spoonie6.0%5/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherAtkins: model 48.7% vs market 28.9% (+19.8 points)Atkins+19.8Big Lucky: model 18.5% vs market 15.7% (+2.8 points)Big Lucky+2.8Forge In Fire: model 12.7% vs market 24.7% (-12.0 points)Forge In Fire-12.0Accona: model 7.9% vs market 10.8% (-2.9 points)Accona-2.9Trigger Point: model 6.2% vs market 5.4% (+0.7 points)Trigger Point+0.7Spoonie: model 6.0% vs market 14.4% (-8.4 points)Spoonie-8.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Atkins48.7%28.9%+19.8
Big Lucky18.5%15.7%+2.8
Forge In Fire12.7%24.7%-12.0
Accona7.9%10.8%-2.9
Trigger Point6.2%5.4%+0.7
Spoonie6.0%14.4%-8.4
🌧️ Off-track: 413625
🎯 Longshots: 453126
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,500
Win:12Richiesgoldengirl (9/5) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -55%
Place:11Tammy's Cruiser (5/2) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -45%
Show:7Butterfly Effect (2/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -75%
Other contenders:8Morgan's Bluff (3/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -65%, 3Serene Waters (6/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -52%, 13Jane Plain (5/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -63%, 14Yalorde (6/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -63%
Rest of field:5Dont Blame Court (9/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -48%, 10Mitole's Secret (7/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -66%, 4Bowling Blue (10/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -61%, 6Strawberry Sky (15/1) 2% · fair 97-2 underlay -69%, 1Siljim (20/1) 2% · fair 57-1 underlay -65%, 9Revocata (12/1) 1% · fair 70-1 underlay -83%, 2Fiery Side (20/1) 1% · fair 153-2 underlay -74%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Richiesgoldengirl — 20.1% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Richiesgoldengirl20.1% ◀Tammy'S Cruiser — 18.0% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Tammy'S Cruiser18.0%Butterfly Effect — 10.9% win probability, morning line 2/1Butterfly Effect10.9%Morgan'S Bluff — 10.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Morgan'S Bluff10.5%Serene Waters — 7.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Serene Waters7.4%Jane Plain — 6.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Jane Plain6.9%Yalorde — 5.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Yalorde5.9%Dont Blame Court — 5.4% win probability, morning line 9/1Dont Blame Court5.4%Mitole'S Secret — 4.6% win probability, morning line 7/1Mitole'S Secret4.6%Bowling Blue — 3.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Bowling Blue3.7%Strawberry Sky — 2.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Strawberry Sky2.0%Siljim — 1.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Siljim1.7%Revocata — 1.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Revocata1.4%Fiery Side — 1.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Fiery Side1.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Richiesgoldengirl20.1%1.8/1
Tammy'S Cruiser18.0%2.5/1
Butterfly Effect10.9%2/1
Morgan'S Bluff10.5%3/1
Serene Waters7.4%6/1
Jane Plain6.9%5/1
Yalorde5.9%6/1
Dont Blame Court5.4%9/1
Mitole'S Secret4.6%7/1
Bowling Blue3.7%10/1
Strawberry Sky2.0%15/1
Siljim1.7%20/1
Revocata1.4%12/1
Fiery Side1.3%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRichiesgoldengirl: model 20.1% vs market 16.0% (+4.1 points)Richiesgoldengirl+4.1Tammy'S Cruiser: model 18.0% vs market 12.8% (+5.2 points)Tammy'S Cruiser+5.2Butterfly Effect: model 10.9% vs market 15.0% (-4.0 points)Butterfly Effect-4.0Morgan'S Bluff: model 10.5% vs market 11.2% (-0.7 points)Morgan'S Bluff-0.7Serene Waters: model 7.4% vs market 6.4% (+1.0 points)Serene Waters+1.0Jane Plain: model 6.9% vs market 7.5% (-0.6 points)Jane Plain-0.6Yalorde: model 5.9% vs market 6.4% (-0.6 points)Yalorde-0.6Dont Blame Court: model 5.4% vs market 4.5% (+0.9 points)Dont Blame Court+0.9Mitole'S Secret: model 4.6% vs market 5.6% (-1.0 points)Mitole'S Secret-1.0Bowling Blue: model 3.7% vs market 4.1% (-0.3 points)Bowling Blue-0.3Strawberry Sky: model 2.0% vs market 2.8% (-0.8 points)Strawberry Sky-0.8Siljim: model 1.7% vs market 2.1% (-0.4 points)Siljim-0.4Revocata: model 1.4% vs market 3.5% (-2.0 points)Revocata-2.0Fiery Side: model 1.3% vs market 2.1% (-0.8 points)Fiery Side-0.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Richiesgoldengirl20.1%16.0%+4.1
Tammy'S Cruiser18.0%12.8%+5.2
Butterfly Effect10.9%15.0%-4.0
Morgan'S Bluff10.5%11.2%-0.7
Serene Waters7.4%6.4%+1.0
Jane Plain6.9%7.5%-0.6
Yalorde5.9%6.4%-0.6
Dont Blame Court5.4%4.5%+0.9
Mitole'S Secret4.6%5.6%-1.0
Bowling Blue3.7%4.1%-0.3
Strawberry Sky2.0%2.8%-0.8
Siljim1.7%2.1%-0.4
Revocata1.4%3.5%-2.0
Fiery Side1.3%2.1%-0.8
🌧️ Off-track: 121178133
🎯 Longshots: 1112574831016131429
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #11, #7, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $15,000
Win:2Alcohol (2/1)
Place:1Xhilaratingpurpose (7/2)
Show:3Lamporghini (3/1)
Other contenders:8Datttsafancyfox (7/1), 6Mean To Me (10/1), 9Tall Girl (12/1)
Rest of field:7Machen Reigns (20/1), 4Ceviche (12/1), 5Take Wings (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 231869
🎯 Longshots: 261378954
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:10Watch The Law (3/1)
Place:6Kukuk (2/1)
Show:3Springs (9/1)
Other contenders:2Hello Greg (7/1), 7Not Like Us (6/1), 9Coaldigger (10/1)
Rest of field:8El Halcon (12/1), 1Walk On Broadway (15/1), 4Midnight Stroller (20/1), 5The Groom's Jul (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6102739
🎯 Longshots: 36102981745
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #6, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $8,500
Win:2Toronto Hoops (2/1)
Place:1Rosie Ann Rules (7/2)
Show:5Snookie Jones (3/1)
Other contenders:8Don'tmindifido (8/1), 7Mi Babe (6/1), 4Super Pachi (10/1)
Rest of field:3Mo Breezy (20/1), 6Brahmastra (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 251784
🎯 Longshots: 81257346
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:8Crime Lord (2/1)
Place:4Elmore (7/2)
Show:7Hidden Favor (3/1)
Other contenders:1Mexicali Mike (20/1), 2U Crocs (7/1), 5Park Ave Prince (10/1)
Rest of field:6Greatdayforhockey (12/1), 3Hey Batter Batter (15/1), 9Hunted Prayer (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 874251
🎯 Longshots: 184726593
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500
Win:4How About It (2/1)
Place:7Hoylake (3/1)
Show:2Breezer (9/1)
Other contenders:3Quistmer (6/1), 8Standard Of Proof (7/1), 6Misterchilliwilli (10/1)
Rest of field:5Law Of The Jungle (12/1), 10Boldness (20/1), 1Game Boy Benny (20/1), 9Easy Fast (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 473826
🎯 Longshots: 26417510398
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:1Capo Luigi (5/2)
Place:4Road To Stardom (7/2)
Show:2Bella's Prayer (2/1)
Other contenders:3Tappin Royalty (9/2), 6You Are Awesome (10/1)
Rest of field:5Orb Of The Boro (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 124365
🎯 Longshots: 142635
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000
Win:4Atkins (2/1)
Place:3Big Lucky (9/2)
Show:1Forge In Fire (5/2)
Other contenders:6Spoonie (5/1), 5Trigger Point (15/1)
Rest of field:2Accona (7/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 413625
🎯 Longshots: 453126
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,500
Win:12Richiesgoldengirl (9/5)
Place:11Tammy's Cruiser (5/2)
Show:7Butterfly Effect (2/1)
Other contenders:14Yalorde (6/1), 8Morgan's Bluff (3/1), 13Jane Plain (5/1), 3Serene Waters (6/1)
Rest of field:5Dont Blame Court (9/1), 10Mitole's Secret (7/1), 4Bowling Blue (10/1), 1Siljim (20/1), 6Strawberry Sky (15/1), 9Revocata (12/1), 2Fiery Side (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1271181413
🎯 Longshots: 1112574831016131429
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #11, #7, #14  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #2 over #1 ($1 straight; box #2-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #6 over #10 ($1 straight; box #6-#10 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #10, #3, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #2 over #1 ($1 straight; box #2-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #5, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #8 over #4 ($1 straight; box #8-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #8, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #4 over #7 ($1 straight; box #4-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #7, #2, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #1, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #4 over #3 ($1 straight; box #4-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #3, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #12 over #11 ($1 straight; box #12-#11 for cover)
Trifecta: #11 over #12, #7, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.33 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.82 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
41Mexicali Mike ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer20/1—8.9%+63.0%0.79%$0.79
TOTAL across 1 play:0.8%$0.79
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $15,000
Win:2Alcohol (2/1)
Place:8Datttsafancyfox (7/1)
Show:1Xhilaratingpurpose (7/2)
Other contenders:6Mean To Me (10/1), 3Lamporghini (3/1), 5Take Wings (15/1)
Rest of field:9Tall Girl (12/1), 7Machen Reigns (20/1), 4Ceviche (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 231869
🎯 Longshots: 261378954
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #8, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:6Kukuk (2/1)
Place:10Watch The Law (3/1)
Show:3Springs (9/1)
Other contenders:2Hello Greg (7/1), 7Not Like Us (6/1), 8El Halcon (12/1)
Rest of field:1Walk On Broadway (15/1), 9Coaldigger (10/1), 4Midnight Stroller (20/1), 5The Groom's Jul (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6102739
🎯 Longshots: 36102981745
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #10, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $8,500
Win:2Toronto Hoops (2/1)
Place:8Don'tmindifido (8/1)
Show:1Rosie Ann Rules (7/2)
Other contenders:5Snookie Jones (3/1), 7Mi Babe (6/1), 3Mo Breezy (20/1)
Rest of field:4Super Pachi (10/1), 6Brahmastra (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 251784
🎯 Longshots: 81257346
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #8, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:7Hidden Favor (3/1)
Place:1Mexicali Mike (20/1)
Show:8Crime Lord (2/1)
Other contenders:2U Crocs (7/1), 4Elmore (7/2), 5Park Ave Prince (10/1)
Rest of field:6Greatdayforhockey (12/1), 3Hey Batter Batter (15/1), 9Hunted Prayer (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 874215
🎯 Longshots: 184726593
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500
Win:7Hoylake (3/1)
Place:4How About It (2/1)
Show:2Breezer (9/1)
Other contenders:3Quistmer (6/1), 8Standard Of Proof (7/1), 10Boldness (20/1)
Rest of field:5Law Of The Jungle (12/1), 6Misterchilliwilli (10/1), 1Game Boy Benny (20/1), 9Easy Fast (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 473826
🎯 Longshots: 26417510398
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:4Road To Stardom (7/2)
Place:1Capo Luigi (5/2)
Show:2Bella's Prayer (2/1)
Other contenders:3Tappin Royalty (9/2), 6You Are Awesome (10/1)
Rest of field:5Orb Of The Boro (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 124365
🎯 Longshots: 142635
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000
Win:4Atkins (2/1)
Place:5Trigger Point (15/1)
Show:3Big Lucky (9/2)
Other contenders:6Spoonie (5/1), 1Forge In Fire (5/2)
Rest of field:2Accona (7/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 413652
🎯 Longshots: 453126
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,500
Win:11Tammy's Cruiser (5/2)
Place:14Yalorde (6/1)
Show:7Butterfly Effect (2/1)
Other contenders:12Richiesgoldengirl (9/5), 5Dont Blame Court (9/1), 13Jane Plain (5/1), 8Morgan's Bluff (3/1)
Rest of field:10Mitole's Secret (7/1), 3Serene Waters (6/1), 4Bowling Blue (10/1), 6Strawberry Sky (15/1), 2Fiery Side (20/1), 1Siljim (20/1), 9Revocata (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1112781413
🎯 Longshots: 1112574831016131429
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #14, #7, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $15,000
Win:1Xhilaratingpurpose (7/2)
Place:2Alcohol (2/1)
Show:3Lamporghini (3/1)
Other contenders:6Mean To Me (10/1), 8Datttsafancyfox (7/1), 7Machen Reigns (20/1)
Rest of field:4Ceviche (12/1), 9Tall Girl (12/1), 5Take Wings (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 213864
🎯 Longshots: 261378954
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:6Kukuk (2/1)
Place:10Watch The Law (3/1)
Show:3Springs (9/1)
Other contenders:2Hello Greg (7/1), 8El Halcon (12/1), 7Not Like Us (6/1)
Rest of field:9Coaldigger (10/1), 1Walk On Broadway (15/1), 4Midnight Stroller (20/1), 5The Groom's Jul (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6102379
🎯 Longshots: 36102981745
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #10, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $8,500
Win:1Rosie Ann Rules (7/2)
Place:2Toronto Hoops (2/1)
Show:5Snookie Jones (3/1)
Other contenders:7Mi Babe (6/1), 8Don'tmindifido (8/1), 4Super Pachi (10/1)
Rest of field:3Mo Breezy (20/1), 6Brahmastra (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 215784
🎯 Longshots: 81257346
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:1Mexicali Mike (20/1)
Place:8Crime Lord (2/1)
Show:7Hidden Favor (3/1)
Other contenders:4Elmore (7/2), 2U Crocs (7/1), 5Park Ave Prince (10/1)
Rest of field:9Hunted Prayer (12/1), 3Hey Batter Batter (15/1), 6Greatdayforhockey (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 874251
🎯 Longshots: 184726593
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500
Win:4How About It (2/1)
Place:7Hoylake (3/1)
Show:2Breezer (9/1)
Other contenders:6Misterchilliwilli (10/1), 8Standard Of Proof (7/1), 3Quistmer (6/1)
Rest of field:10Boldness (20/1), 1Game Boy Benny (20/1), 5Law Of The Jungle (12/1), 9Easy Fast (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 473286
🎯 Longshots: 26417510398
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:4Road To Stardom (7/2)
Place:1Capo Luigi (5/2)
Show:2Bella's Prayer (2/1)
Other contenders:3Tappin Royalty (9/2), 6You Are Awesome (10/1)
Rest of field:5Orb Of The Boro (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 124365
🎯 Longshots: 142635
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $16,000
Win:4Atkins (2/1)
Place:3Big Lucky (9/2)
Show:1Forge In Fire (5/2)
Other contenders:2Accona (7/1), 5Trigger Point (15/1)
Rest of field:6Spoonie (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 413625
🎯 Longshots: 453126
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,500
Win:11Tammy's Cruiser (5/2)
Place:12Richiesgoldengirl (9/5)
Show:7Butterfly Effect (2/1)
Other contenders:8Morgan's Bluff (3/1), 3Serene Waters (6/1), 14Yalorde (6/1), 5Dont Blame Court (9/1)
Rest of field:10Mitole's Secret (7/1), 13Jane Plain (5/1), 4Bowling Blue (10/1), 1Siljim (20/1), 6Strawberry Sky (15/1), 2Fiery Side (20/1), 9Revocata (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 121178313
🎯 Longshots: 1112574831016131429
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #12, #7, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #2,#1,#3 (66%) / R2: #6,#10 (61%) / R3: #1,#2,#8 (62%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #6,#10 (61%) / R3: #1,#2,#8 (62%) / R4: #8,#7,#4 (56%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #4,#7,#2 (51%) / R6: #1,#4 (65%) / R7: #4,#3 (67%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #1,#4 (65%) / R7: #4,#3 (67%) / R8: #12,#11,#7 (49%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22%
Pick 4 R4-7R4: #8,#7,#4 (56%) / R5: #4,#7,#2 (51%) / R6: #1,#4 (65%) / R7: #4,#3 (67%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 13%
Pick 4 R5-8R5: #4,#7,#2 (51%) / R6: #1,#4 (65%) / R7: #4,#3 (67%) / R8: #12,#11,#7 (49%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 11%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ACCONAALCOHOLATKINSBELLA'S PRAYERBIG LUCKY
BOWLING BLUEBRAHMASTRABREEZERBUTTERFLY EFFECTCAPO LUIGI
COALDIGGERCRIME LORDDATTTSAFANCYFOXDON'TMINDIFIDODONT BLAME COURT
EL HALCONELMOREFIERY SIDEFORGE IN FIREGAME BOY BENNY
HELLO GREGHEY BATTER BATTERHIDDEN FAVORHOW ABOUT ITHOYLAKE
JANE PLAINKUKUKLAMPORGHINILAW OF THE JUNGLEMACHEN REIGNS
MEXICALI MIKEMI BABEMIDNIGHT STROLLERMISTERCHILLIWILLIMITOLE'S SECRET
MORGAN'S BLUFFNOT LIKE USORB OF THE BOROPARK AVE PRINCEQUISTMER
RICHIESGOLDENGIRLROAD TO STARDOMROSIE ANN RULESSERENE WATERSSILJIM
SPOONIESPRINGSSTANDARD OF PROOFSTRAWBERRY SKYSUPER PACHI
TALL GIRLTAMMY'S CRUISERTAPPIN ROYALTYTHE GROOM'S JULTORONTO HOOPS
U CROCSWALK ON BROADWAYWATCH THE LAWXHILARATINGPURPOSEYALORDE

 


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