Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Mountaineer Park, October 13, 2026


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Royal Salute (2/1)
Place:9Uncle Truly (3/1)
Show:11Maxwell Esquire (3/1)
Other contenders:12Old Flag (4/1), 4Golden Bandit (6/1), 10Arak (7/1), 1Tizawhitefacecat (9/1)
Rest of field:13Bossme (10/1), 8Frozen Four (10/1), 7Trap Line (12/1), 2Rip Thorn (15/1), 14Bustin Loose (12/1), 6Barleewon (20/1), 3Daneland (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 591112410
🎯 Longshots: 5119114132128741063
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #9, #11, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $13,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:12Ur Fabulous (2/1)
Place:6Miss Queue (9/1)
Show:7Diamond Dancer (6/1)
Other contenders:3La Heroica (2/1), 11Spirit To Inspire (5/1), 2Lightning Lane (3/1), 9On Reserve (7/1)
Rest of field:4Leave Drama Behind (10/1), 8Upscuttled (12/1), 10Mitole's Secret (20/1), 5Sagcy (15/1), 1Strawberry Sky (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12372611
🎯 Longshots: 126410385217911
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #6, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $13,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:10A Ok (3/1)
Place:3Sneaky Sneaky (6/1)
Show:2Prince Jeremy (2/1)
Other contenders:13Mr Business (7/2), 6Balam (7/1), 8Ozzy (9/1), 1After Sunrise (10/1)
Rest of field:7Awesome Name (15/1), 12Sir Liam (10/1), 11Party At The Beach (8/1), 9Leo Q (12/1), 5Toomuchaintenough (20/1), 4Insanity It Seems (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 10213368
🎯 Longshots: 81021133121196754
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #3, #2, #13  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Miss M M (3/1)
Place:1Go Go Star (7/2)
Show:7Banned From Midway (2/1)
Other contenders:6Girl Bye (10/1), 4Seems To Whisper (12/1), 3Cloudy Bay (12/1)
Rest of field:9Vingativa (7/1), 5Bank Buster (15/1), 2Waterloo Sunset (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 871694
🎯 Longshots: 683475129
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · HR · Purse $13,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7Cant Fake The Hate (3/1)
Place:10Opposite The Crowd (2/1)
Show:8True Class (6/1)
Other contenders:6Fiamma (9/1), 4Lost Bikini (12/1), 5Larimar (10/1), 11Lil Breezzy (10/1)
Rest of field:3Flat Out Diamonds (7/1), 9Lucky Bop (15/1), 1Something Sweet (20/1), 2Ghostly Girl (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 71086511
🎯 Longshots: 5116471091823
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #10, #8, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,500
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Baby Dog (5/2)
Place:5Eyesonthecandy (2/1)
Show:4K's Red Bull (9/2)
Other contenders:6It's Only Money (7/2), 1Majesty's Cowboy (10/1)
Rest of field:3I'm Great Two (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 524613
🎯 Longshots: 215346
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $19,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Team Mischievous (5/2)
Place:4K's Unruly Newelly (3/1)
Show:7Midnight Stroller (7/2)
Other contenders:2Heza King (9/2), 5All Roads To Denis (8/1)
Rest of field:3Atomic War (10/1), 6The Groom's Jul (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 147253
🎯 Longshots: 1456237
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $15,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:11Glint (2/1)
Place:9Speighty War (2/1)
Show:2Undalay (5/1)
Other contenders:12Toddchero (6/1), 10Good Moments (8/1), 4Huntertown (4/1), 5Ramsey (7/1)
Rest of field:1Pure Panic (10/1), 8Standard Of Proof (12/1), 3Prairie Hawk (15/1), 7Collectorate (15/1), 6Homerunhappy (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 119212410
🎯 Longshots: 111109821267345
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #9, #2, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:5Royal Salute (2/1) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -43%
Place:11Maxwell Esquire (3/1) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -30%
Show:9Uncle Truly (3/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -43%
Other contenders:12Old Flag (4/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -66%, 10Arak (7/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -44%, 4Golden Bandit (6/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -56%, 1Tizawhitefacecat (9/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -41%
Rest of field:8Frozen Four (10/1) 4% · fair 55-2 underlay -64%, 7Trap Line (12/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -64%, 13Bossme (10/1) 3% · fair 35-1 underlay -72%, 14Bustin Loose (12/1) 2% · fair 81-2 underlay -70%, 2Rip Thorn (15/1) 2% · fair 101-2 underlay -70%, 6Barleewon (20/1) 1% · fair 305-2 underlay -87%, 3Daneland (20/1) 1% · fair 373-2 underlay -89%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Royal Salute — 22.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Royal Salute22.1% ◀Maxwell Esquire — 19.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Maxwell Esquire19.0%Uncle Truly — 15.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Uncle Truly15.9%Old Flag — 7.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Old Flag7.8%Arak — 7.5% win probability, morning line 7/1Arak7.5%Golden Bandit — 6.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Golden Bandit6.8%Tizawhitefacecat — 6.2% win probability, morning line 9/1Tizawhitefacecat6.2%Frozen Four — 3.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Frozen Four3.5%Trap Line — 2.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Trap Line2.9%Bossme — 2.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Bossme2.8%Bustin Loose — 2.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Bustin Loose2.4%Rip Thorn — 1.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Rip Thorn1.9%Barleewon — 0.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Barleewon0.7%Daneland — 0.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Daneland0.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Royal Salute22.1%2/1
Maxwell Esquire19.0%3/1
Uncle Truly15.9%3/1
Old Flag7.8%4/1
Arak7.5%7/1
Golden Bandit6.8%6/1
Tizawhitefacecat6.2%9/1
Frozen Four3.5%10/1
Trap Line2.9%12/1
Bossme2.8%10/1
Bustin Loose2.4%12/1
Rip Thorn1.9%15/1
Barleewon0.7%20/1
Daneland0.5%20/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherRoyal Salute: model 22.1% vs market 17.6% (+4.5 points)Royal Salute+4.5Maxwell Esquire: model 19.0% vs market 13.2% (+5.8 points)Maxwell Esquire+5.8Uncle Truly: model 15.9% vs market 13.2% (+2.7 points)Uncle Truly+2.7Old Flag: model 7.8% vs market 10.6% (-2.8 points)Old Flag-2.8Arak: model 7.5% vs market 6.6% (+0.9 points)Arak+0.9Golden Bandit: model 6.8% vs market 7.5% (-0.7 points)Golden Bandit-0.7Tizawhitefacecat: model 6.2% vs market 5.3% (+0.9 points)Tizawhitefacecat+0.9Frozen Four: model 3.5% vs market 4.8% (-1.3 points)Frozen Four-1.3Trap Line: model 2.9% vs market 4.1% (-1.1 points)Trap Line-1.1Bossme: model 2.8% vs market 4.8% (-2.0 points)Bossme-2.0Bustin Loose: model 2.4% vs market 4.1% (-1.7 points)Bustin Loose-1.7Rip Thorn: model 1.9% vs market 3.3% (-1.4 points)Rip Thorn-1.4Barleewon: model 0.7% vs market 2.5% (-1.9 points)Barleewon-1.9Daneland: model 0.5% vs market 2.5% (-2.0 points)Daneland-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Royal Salute22.1%17.6%+4.5
Maxwell Esquire19.0%13.2%+5.8
Uncle Truly15.9%13.2%+2.7
Old Flag7.8%10.6%-2.8
Arak7.5%6.6%+0.9
Golden Bandit6.8%7.5%-0.7
Tizawhitefacecat6.2%5.3%+0.9
Frozen Four3.5%4.8%-1.3
Trap Line2.9%4.1%-1.1
Bossme2.8%4.8%-2.0
Bustin Loose2.4%4.1%-1.7
Rip Thorn1.9%3.3%-1.4
Barleewon0.7%2.5%-1.9
Daneland0.5%2.5%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 511912410
🎯 Longshots: 5119114132128741063
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #11, #9, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:12Ur Fabulous (2/1) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -33%
Place:6Miss Queue (9/1) 17% · fair 5-1 overlay +80%
Show:2Lightning Lane (3/1) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -53%
Other contenders:7Diamond Dancer (6/1) 13% · fair 7-1, 3La Heroica (2/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -85%, 11Spirit To Inspire (5/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -63%, 9On Reserve (7/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -63%
Rest of field:4Leave Drama Behind (10/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -61%, 5Sagcy (15/1) 3% · fair 73-2 underlay -59%, 8Upscuttled (12/1) 2% · fair 87-2 underlay -72%, 1Strawberry Sky (20/1) 2% · fair 87-2 underlay -54%, 10Mitole's Secret (20/1) 2% · fair 89-2 underlay -55%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Ur Fabulous — 25.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Ur Fabulous25.1% ◀Miss Queue — 16.7% win probability, morning line 9/1Miss Queue16.7%Lightning Lane — 13.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Lightning Lane13.7%Diamond Dancer — 12.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Diamond Dancer12.5%La Heroica — 7.0% win probability, morning line 2/1La Heroica7.0%Spirit To Inspire — 6.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Spirit To Inspire6.9%On Reserve — 5.1% win probability, morning line 7/1On Reserve5.1%Leave Drama Behind — 3.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Leave Drama Behind3.7%Sagcy — 2.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Sagcy2.7%Upscuttled — 2.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Upscuttled2.3%Strawberry Sky — 2.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Strawberry Sky2.2%Mitole'S Secret — 2.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Mitole'S Secret2.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Ur Fabulous25.1%2/1
Miss Queue16.7%9/1
Lightning Lane13.7%3/1
Diamond Dancer12.5%6/1
La Heroica7.0%2/1
Spirit To Inspire6.9%5/1
On Reserve5.1%7/1
Leave Drama Behind3.7%10/1
Sagcy2.7%15/1
Upscuttled2.3%12/1
Strawberry Sky2.2%20/1
Mitole'S Secret2.2%20/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherUr Fabulous: model 25.1% vs market 18.8% (+6.3 points)Ur Fabulous+6.3Miss Queue: model 16.7% vs market 5.6% (+11.0 points)Miss Queue+11.0Lightning Lane: model 13.7% vs market 14.1% (-0.4 points)Lightning Lane-0.4Diamond Dancer: model 12.5% vs market 8.0% (+4.5 points)Diamond Dancer+4.5La Heroica: model 7.0% vs market 18.8% (-11.8 points)La Heroica-11.8Spirit To Inspire: model 6.9% vs market 9.4% (-2.4 points)Spirit To Inspire-2.4On Reserve: model 5.1% vs market 7.0% (-2.0 points)On Reserve-2.0Leave Drama Behind: model 3.7% vs market 5.1% (-1.4 points)Leave Drama Behind-1.4Sagcy: model 2.7% vs market 3.5% (-0.9 points)Sagcy-0.9Upscuttled: model 2.3% vs market 4.3% (-2.1 points)Upscuttled-2.1Strawberry Sky: model 2.2% vs market 2.7% (-0.4 points)Strawberry Sky-0.4Mitole'S Secret: model 2.2% vs market 2.7% (-0.5 points)Mitole'S Secret-0.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Ur Fabulous25.1%18.8%+6.3
Miss Queue16.7%5.6%+11.0
Lightning Lane13.7%14.1%-0.4
Diamond Dancer12.5%8.0%+4.5
La Heroica7.0%18.8%-11.8
Spirit To Inspire6.9%9.4%-2.4
On Reserve5.1%7.0%-2.0
Leave Drama Behind3.7%5.1%-1.4
Sagcy2.7%3.5%-0.9
Upscuttled2.3%4.3%-2.1
Strawberry Sky2.2%2.7%-0.4
Mitole'S Secret2.2%2.7%-0.5
🌧️ Off-track: 12237611
🎯 Longshots: 126410385217911
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #6, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:3Sneaky Sneaky (6/1) 18% · fair 9-2 overlay +31%
Place:10A Ok (3/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -40%
Show:6Balam (7/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:13Mr Business (7/2) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -49%, 2Prince Jeremy (2/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -76%, 8Ozzy (9/1) 10% · fair 19-2, 1After Sunrise (10/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -59%
Rest of field:9Leo Q (12/1) 3% · fair 57-2 underlay -58%, 7Awesome Name (15/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -48%, 12Sir Liam (10/1) 3% · fair 59-2 underlay -66%, 11Party At The Beach (8/1) 3% · fair 63-2 underlay -75%, 5Toomuchaintenough (20/1) 2% · fair 131-2 underlay -70%, 4Insanity It Seems (20/1) 1% · fair 327-2 underlay -88%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Sneaky Sneaky — 17.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Sneaky Sneaky17.9% ◀A Ok — 16.7% win probability, morning line 3/1A Ok16.7%Balam — 13.0% win probability, morning line 7/1Balam13.0%Mr Business — 12.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Mr Business12.7%Prince Jeremy — 10.8% win probability, morning line 2/1Prince Jeremy10.8%Ozzy — 9.8% win probability, morning line 9/1Ozzy9.8%After Sunrise — 4.0% win probability, morning line 10/1After Sunrise4.0%Leo Q — 3.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Leo Q3.4%Awesome Name — 3.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Awesome Name3.3%Sir Liam — 3.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Sir Liam3.3%Party At The Beach — 3.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Party At The Beach3.1%Toomuchaintenough — 1.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Toomuchaintenough1.5%Insanity It Seems — 0.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Insanity It Seems0.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Sneaky Sneaky17.9%6/1
A Ok16.7%3/1
Balam13.0%7/1
Mr Business12.7%3.5/1
Prince Jeremy10.8%2/1
Ozzy9.8%9/1
After Sunrise4.0%10/1
Leo Q3.4%12/1
Awesome Name3.3%15/1
Sir Liam3.3%10/1
Party At The Beach3.1%8/1
Toomuchaintenough1.5%20/1
Insanity It Seems0.6%20/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSneaky Sneaky: model 17.9% vs market 8.4% (+9.5 points)Sneaky Sneaky+9.5A Ok: model 16.7% vs market 14.7% (+2.0 points)A Ok+2.0Balam: model 13.0% vs market 7.3% (+5.6 points)Balam+5.6Mr Business: model 12.7% vs market 13.1% (-0.4 points)Mr Business-0.4Prince Jeremy: model 10.8% vs market 19.6% (-8.8 points)Prince Jeremy-8.8Ozzy: model 9.8% vs market 5.9% (+3.9 points)Ozzy+3.9After Sunrise: model 4.0% vs market 5.3% (-1.4 points)After Sunrise-1.4Leo Q: model 3.4% vs market 4.5% (-1.1 points)Leo Q-1.1Awesome Name: model 3.3% vs market 3.7% (-0.3 points)Awesome Name-0.3Sir Liam: model 3.3% vs market 5.3% (-2.1 points)Sir Liam-2.1Party At The Beach: model 3.1% vs market 6.5% (-3.5 points)Party At The Beach-3.5Toomuchaintenough: model 1.5% vs market 2.8% (-1.3 points)Toomuchaintenough-1.3Insanity It Seems: model 0.6% vs market 2.8% (-2.2 points)Insanity It Seems-2.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Sneaky Sneaky17.9%8.4%+9.5
A Ok16.7%14.7%+2.0
Balam13.0%7.3%+5.6
Mr Business12.7%13.1%-0.4
Prince Jeremy10.8%19.6%-8.8
Ozzy9.8%5.9%+3.9
After Sunrise4.0%5.3%-1.4
Leo Q3.4%4.5%-1.1
Awesome Name3.3%3.7%-0.3
Sir Liam3.3%5.3%-2.1
Party At The Beach3.1%6.5%-3.5
Toomuchaintenough1.5%2.8%-1.3
Insanity It Seems0.6%2.8%-2.2
🌧️ Off-track: 10231368
🎯 Longshots: 81021133121196754
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #10, #6, #13  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:8Miss M M (3/1) 24% · fair 3-1
Place:1Go Go Star (7/2) 22% · fair 7-2
Show:7Banned From Midway (2/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -59%
Other contenders:6Girl Bye (10/1) 14% · fair 6-1 overlay +64%, 4Seems To Whisper (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 9Vingativa (7/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -57%
Rest of field:3Cloudy Bay (12/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -35%, 5Bank Buster (15/1) 3% · fair 59-2 underlay -49%, 2Waterloo Sunset (20/1) 2% · fair 87-2 underlay -54%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Miss M M — 23.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Miss M M23.8% ◀Go Go Star — 21.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Go Go Star21.9%Banned From Midway — 16.9% win probability, morning line 2/1Banned From Midway16.9%Girl Bye — 14.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Girl Bye14.1%Seems To Whisper — 6.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Seems To Whisper6.8%Vingativa — 5.8% win probability, morning line 7/1Vingativa5.8%Cloudy Bay — 5.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Cloudy Bay5.2%Bank Buster — 3.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Bank Buster3.3%Waterloo Sunset — 2.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Waterloo Sunset2.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Miss M M23.8%3/1
Go Go Star21.9%3.5/1
Banned From Midway16.9%2/1
Girl Bye14.1%10/1
Seems To Whisper6.8%12/1
Vingativa5.8%7/1
Cloudy Bay5.2%12/1
Bank Buster3.3%15/1
Waterloo Sunset2.2%20/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMiss M M: model 23.8% vs market 19.4% (+4.3 points)Miss M M+4.3Go Go Star: model 21.9% vs market 17.3% (+4.7 points)Go Go Star+4.7Banned From Midway: model 16.9% vs market 25.9% (-9.1 points)Banned From Midway-9.1Girl Bye: model 14.1% vs market 7.1% (+7.0 points)Girl Bye+7.0Seems To Whisper: model 6.8% vs market 6.0% (+0.9 points)Seems To Whisper+0.9Vingativa: model 5.8% vs market 9.7% (-3.9 points)Vingativa-3.9Cloudy Bay: model 5.2% vs market 6.0% (-0.8 points)Cloudy Bay-0.8Bank Buster: model 3.3% vs market 4.9% (-1.6 points)Bank Buster-1.6Waterloo Sunset: model 2.2% vs market 3.7% (-1.5 points)Waterloo Sunset-1.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Miss M M23.8%19.4%+4.3
Go Go Star21.9%17.3%+4.7
Banned From Midway16.9%25.9%-9.1
Girl Bye14.1%7.1%+7.0
Seems To Whisper6.8%6.0%+0.9
Vingativa5.8%9.7%-3.9
Cloudy Bay5.2%6.0%-0.8
Bank Buster3.3%4.9%-1.6
Waterloo Sunset2.2%3.7%-1.5
🌧️ Off-track: 871694
🎯 Longshots: 683475129
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · HR · Purse $13,000
Win:7Cant Fake The Hate (3/1) 26% · fair 3-1
Place:10Opposite The Crowd (2/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -63%
Show:8True Class (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:5Larimar (10/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 4Lost Bikini (12/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 11Lil Breezzy (10/1) 8% · fair 11-1, 6Fiamma (9/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -26%
Rest of field:3Flat Out Diamonds (7/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -60%, 9Lucky Bop (15/1) 3% · fair 55-2 underlay -46%, 1Something Sweet (20/1) 2% · fair 101-2 underlay -60%, 2Ghostly Girl (20/1) 1% · fair 151-2 underlay -74%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Cant Fake The Hate — 25.6% win probability, morning line 3/1Cant Fake The Hate25.6% ◀Opposite The Crowd — 15.7% win probability, morning line 2/1Opposite The Crowd15.7%True Class — 12.0% win probability, morning line 6/1True Class12.0%Larimar — 10.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Larimar10.0%Lost Bikini — 8.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Lost Bikini8.5%Lil Breezzy — 8.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Lil Breezzy8.4%Fiamma — 7.6% win probability, morning line 9/1Fiamma7.6%Flat Out Diamonds — 5.4% win probability, morning line 7/1Flat Out Diamonds5.4%Lucky Bop — 3.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Lucky Bop3.5%Something Sweet — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Something Sweet1.9%Ghostly Girl — 1.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Ghostly Girl1.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Cant Fake The Hate25.6%3/1
Opposite The Crowd15.7%2/1
True Class12.0%6/1
Larimar10.0%10/1
Lost Bikini8.5%12/1
Lil Breezzy8.4%10/1
Fiamma7.6%9/1
Flat Out Diamonds5.4%7/1
Lucky Bop3.5%15/1
Something Sweet1.9%20/1
Ghostly Girl1.3%20/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCant Fake The Hate: model 25.6% vs market 18.3% (+7.4 points)Cant Fake The Hate+7.4Opposite The Crowd: model 15.7% vs market 24.4% (-8.7 points)Opposite The Crowd-8.7True Class: model 12.0% vs market 10.4% (+1.5 points)True Class+1.5Larimar: model 10.0% vs market 6.6% (+3.4 points)Larimar+3.4Lost Bikini: model 8.5% vs market 5.6% (+2.9 points)Lost Bikini+2.9Lil Breezzy: model 8.4% vs market 6.6% (+1.8 points)Lil Breezzy+1.8Fiamma: model 7.6% vs market 7.3% (+0.2 points)Fiamma+0.2Flat Out Diamonds: model 5.4% vs market 9.1% (-3.7 points)Flat Out Diamonds-3.7Lucky Bop: model 3.5% vs market 4.6% (-1.1 points)Lucky Bop-1.1Something Sweet: model 1.9% vs market 3.5% (-1.5 points)Something Sweet-1.5Ghostly Girl: model 1.3% vs market 3.5% (-2.2 points)Ghostly Girl-2.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Cant Fake The Hate25.6%18.3%+7.4
Opposite The Crowd15.7%24.4%-8.7
True Class12.0%10.4%+1.5
Larimar10.0%6.6%+3.4
Lost Bikini8.5%5.6%+2.9
Lil Breezzy8.4%6.6%+1.8
Fiamma7.6%7.3%+0.2
Flat Out Diamonds5.4%9.1%-3.7
Lucky Bop3.5%4.6%-1.1
Something Sweet1.9%3.5%-1.5
Ghostly Girl1.3%3.5%-2.2
🌧️ Off-track: 7108536
🎯 Longshots: 5116471091823
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #10, #8, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,500
Win:2Baby Dog (5/2) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:4K's Red Bull (9/2) 24% · fair 3-1 overlay +42%
Show:5Eyesonthecandy (2/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -50%
Other contenders:6It's Only Money (7/2) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -50%, 1Majesty's Cowboy (10/1) 8% · fair 11-1
Rest of field:3I'm Great Two (15/1) 5% · fair 39-2
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Baby Dog — 30.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Baby Dog30.2% ◀K'S Red Bull — 23.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1K'S Red Bull23.9%Eyesonthecandy — 20.0% win probability, morning line 2/1Eyesonthecandy20.0%It'S Only Money — 12.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1It'S Only Money12.5%Majesty'S Cowboy — 8.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Majesty'S Cowboy8.4%I'M Great Two — 4.9% win probability, morning line 15/1I'M Great Two4.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Baby Dog30.2%2.5/1
K'S Red Bull23.9%4.5/1
Eyesonthecandy20.0%2/1
It'S Only Money12.5%3.5/1
Majesty'S Cowboy8.4%10/1
I'M Great Two4.9%15/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBaby Dog: model 30.2% vs market 24.3% (+5.9 points)Baby Dog+5.9K'S Red Bull: model 23.9% vs market 15.5% (+8.5 points)K'S Red Bull+8.5Eyesonthecandy: model 20.0% vs market 28.3% (-8.3 points)Eyesonthecandy-8.3It'S Only Money: model 12.5% vs market 18.9% (-6.4 points)It'S Only Money-6.4Majesty'S Cowboy: model 8.4% vs market 7.7% (+0.7 points)Majesty'S Cowboy+0.7I'M Great Two: model 4.9% vs market 5.3% (-0.4 points)I'M Great Two-0.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Baby Dog30.2%24.3%+5.9
K'S Red Bull23.9%15.5%+8.5
Eyesonthecandy20.0%28.3%-8.3
It'S Only Money12.5%18.9%-6.4
Majesty'S Cowboy8.4%7.7%+0.7
I'M Great Two4.9%5.3%-0.4
🌧️ Off-track: 254613
🎯 Longshots: 215346
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $19,000
Win:4K's Unruly Newelly (3/1) 32% · fair 2-1 overlay +43%
Place:1Team Mischievous (5/2) 29% · fair 5-2
Show:2Heza King (9/2) 15% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:7Midnight Stroller (7/2) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -69%, 5All Roads To Denis (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -42%
Rest of field:3Atomic War (10/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -42%, 6The Groom's Jul (15/1) 3% · fair 65-2 underlay -54%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

K'S Unruly Newelly — 32.2% win probability, morning line 3/1K'S Unruly Newelly32.2% ◀Team Mischievous — 29.0% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Team Mischievous29.0%Heza King — 15.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Heza King15.5%Midnight Stroller — 8.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Midnight Stroller8.1%All Roads To Denis — 6.8% win probability, morning line 8/1All Roads To Denis6.8%Atomic War — 5.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Atomic War5.5%The Groom'S Jul — 3.0% win probability, morning line 15/1The Groom'S Jul3.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
K'S Unruly Newelly32.2%3/1
Team Mischievous29.0%2.5/1
Heza King15.5%4.5/1
Midnight Stroller8.1%3.5/1
All Roads To Denis6.8%8/1
Atomic War5.5%10/1
The Groom'S Jul3.0%15/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherK'S Unruly Newelly: model 32.2% vs market 20.8% (+11.4 points)K'S Unruly Newelly+11.4Team Mischievous: model 29.0% vs market 23.7% (+5.2 points)Team Mischievous+5.2Heza King: model 15.5% vs market 15.1% (+0.4 points)Heza King+0.4Midnight Stroller: model 8.1% vs market 18.5% (-10.3 points)Midnight Stroller-10.3All Roads To Denis: model 6.8% vs market 9.2% (-2.5 points)All Roads To Denis-2.5Atomic War: model 5.5% vs market 7.5% (-2.1 points)Atomic War-2.1The Groom'S Jul: model 3.0% vs market 5.2% (-2.2 points)The Groom'S Jul-2.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
K'S Unruly Newelly32.2%20.8%+11.4
Team Mischievous29.0%23.7%+5.2
Heza King15.5%15.1%+0.4
Midnight Stroller8.1%18.5%-10.3
All Roads To Denis6.8%9.2%-2.5
Atomic War5.5%7.5%-2.1
The Groom'S Jul3.0%5.2%-2.2
🌧️ Off-track: 412753
🎯 Longshots: 1456237
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $15,500
Win:11Glint (2/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -56%
Place:9Speighty War (2/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -67%
Show:2Undalay (5/1) 14% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:12Toddchero (6/1) 11% · fair 15-2, 10Good Moments (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 4Huntertown (4/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -66%, 1Pure Panic (10/1) 7% · fair 25-2
Rest of field:5Ramsey (7/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -50%, 8Standard Of Proof (12/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -26%, 7Collectorate (15/1) 2% · fair 40-1 underlay -62%, 3Prairie Hawk (15/1) 2% · fair 89-2 underlay -66%, 6Homerunhappy (20/1) 2% · fair 115-2 underlay -65%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Glint — 17.9% win probability, morning line 2/1Glint17.9% ◀Speighty War — 14.0% win probability, morning line 2/1Speighty War14.0%Undalay — 13.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Undalay13.7%Toddchero — 11.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Toddchero11.5%Good Moments — 8.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Good Moments8.8%Huntertown — 7.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Huntertown7.8%Pure Panic — 7.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Pure Panic7.4%Ramsey — 6.7% win probability, morning line 7/1Ramsey6.7%Standard Of Proof — 5.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Standard Of Proof5.8%Collectorate — 2.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Collectorate2.4%Prairie Hawk — 2.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Prairie Hawk2.2%Homerunhappy — 1.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Homerunhappy1.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Glint17.9%2/1
Speighty War14.0%2/1
Undalay13.7%5/1
Toddchero11.5%6/1
Good Moments8.8%8/1
Huntertown7.8%4/1
Pure Panic7.4%10/1
Ramsey6.7%7/1
Standard Of Proof5.8%12/1
Collectorate2.4%15/1
Prairie Hawk2.2%15/1
Homerunhappy1.7%20/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGlint: model 17.9% vs market 19.0% (-1.2 points)Glint-1.2Speighty War: model 14.0% vs market 19.0% (-5.0 points)Speighty War-5.0Undalay: model 13.7% vs market 9.5% (+4.2 points)Undalay+4.2Toddchero: model 11.5% vs market 8.2% (+3.3 points)Toddchero+3.3Good Moments: model 8.8% vs market 6.3% (+2.5 points)Good Moments+2.5Huntertown: model 7.8% vs market 11.4% (-3.6 points)Huntertown-3.6Pure Panic: model 7.4% vs market 5.2% (+2.2 points)Pure Panic+2.2Ramsey: model 6.7% vs market 7.1% (-0.4 points)Ramsey-0.4Standard Of Proof: model 5.8% vs market 4.4% (+1.4 points)Standard Of Proof+1.4Collectorate: model 2.4% vs market 3.6% (-1.1 points)Collectorate-1.1Prairie Hawk: model 2.2% vs market 3.6% (-1.4 points)Prairie Hawk-1.4Homerunhappy: model 1.7% vs market 2.7% (-1.0 points)Homerunhappy-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Glint17.9%19.0%-1.2
Speighty War14.0%19.0%-5.0
Undalay13.7%9.5%+4.2
Toddchero11.5%8.2%+3.3
Good Moments8.8%6.3%+2.5
Huntertown7.8%11.4%-3.6
Pure Panic7.4%5.2%+2.2
Ramsey6.7%7.1%-0.4
Standard Of Proof5.8%4.4%+1.4
Collectorate2.4%3.6%-1.1
Prairie Hawk2.2%3.6%-1.4
Homerunhappy1.7%2.7%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 119212410
🎯 Longshots: 111109821267345
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #9, #2, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:5Royal Salute (2/1)
Place:11Maxwell Esquire (3/1)
Show:9Uncle Truly (3/1)
Other contenders:4Golden Bandit (6/1), 10Arak (7/1), 7Trap Line (12/1), 13Bossme (10/1)
Rest of field:12Old Flag (4/1), 2Rip Thorn (15/1), 1Tizawhitefacecat (9/1), 8Frozen Four (10/1), 6Barleewon (20/1), 14Bustin Loose (12/1), 3Daneland (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 511941210
🎯 Longshots: 5119114132128741063
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #11, #9, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:12Ur Fabulous (2/1)
Place:9On Reserve (7/1)
Show:6Miss Queue (9/1)
Other contenders:11Spirit To Inspire (5/1), 2Lightning Lane (3/1), 3La Heroica (2/1), 4Leave Drama Behind (10/1)
Rest of field:5Sagcy (15/1), 8Upscuttled (12/1), 1Strawberry Sky (20/1), 7Diamond Dancer (6/1), 10Mitole's Secret (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12321196
🎯 Longshots: 126410385217911
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #9, #6, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:10A Ok (3/1)
Place:6Balam (7/1)
Show:13Mr Business (7/2)
Other contenders:8Ozzy (9/1), 3Sneaky Sneaky (6/1), 2Prince Jeremy (2/1), 5Toomuchaintenough (20/1)
Rest of field:12Sir Liam (10/1), 9Leo Q (12/1), 7Awesome Name (15/1), 11Party At The Beach (8/1), 1After Sunrise (10/1), 4Insanity It Seems (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 21013368
🎯 Longshots: 81021133121196754
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #6, #13, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:8Miss M M (3/1)
Place:1Go Go Star (7/2)
Show:6Girl Bye (10/1)
Other contenders:7Banned From Midway (2/1), 3Cloudy Bay (12/1), 4Seems To Whisper (12/1)
Rest of field:2Waterloo Sunset (20/1), 5Bank Buster (15/1), 9Vingativa (7/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 871639
🎯 Longshots: 683475129
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · HR · Purse $13,000
Win:7Cant Fake The Hate (3/1)
Place:10Opposite The Crowd (2/1)
Show:5Larimar (10/1)
Other contenders:11Lil Breezzy (10/1), 4Lost Bikini (12/1), 8True Class (6/1), 6Fiamma (9/1)
Rest of field:3Flat Out Diamonds (7/1), 9Lucky Bop (15/1), 1Something Sweet (20/1), 2Ghostly Girl (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 10785311
🎯 Longshots: 5116471091823
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #10, #5, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,500
Win:2Baby Dog (5/2)
Place:4K's Red Bull (9/2)
Show:5Eyesonthecandy (2/1)
Other contenders:1Majesty's Cowboy (10/1), 6It's Only Money (7/2)
Rest of field:3I'm Great Two (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 254613
🎯 Longshots: 215346
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $19,000
Win:1Team Mischievous (5/2)
Place:4K's Unruly Newelly (3/1)
Show:7Midnight Stroller (7/2)
Other contenders:2Heza King (9/2), 5All Roads To Denis (8/1)
Rest of field:3Atomic War (10/1), 6The Groom's Jul (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 147253
🎯 Longshots: 1456237
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $15,500
Win:11Glint (2/1)
Place:2Undalay (5/1)
Show:9Speighty War (2/1)
Other contenders:12Toddchero (6/1), 1Pure Panic (10/1), 4Huntertown (4/1), 8Standard Of Proof (12/1)
Rest of field:10Good Moments (8/1), 5Ramsey (7/1), 3Prairie Hawk (15/1), 7Collectorate (15/1), 6Homerunhappy (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 11924121
🎯 Longshots: 111109821267345
🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #2, #9, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #5 over #11 ($1 straight; box #5-#11 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #11, #9, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #12 over #3 ($1 straight; box #12-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #12 over #11, #9, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #10 over #2 ($1 straight; box #10-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #10, #13, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #8 over #7 ($1 straight; box #8-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #8, #6, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #7 over #10 ($1 straight; box #7-#10 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #10, #6, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #2 over #5 ($1 straight; box #2-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #5, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #4, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #11 over #9 ($1 straight; box #11-#9 for cover)
Trifecta: #9 over #11, #2, #12 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.33 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
54Lost Bikini12/1—8.7%+11.5%0.24%$0.24
TOTAL across 1 play:0.2%$0.24
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:5Royal Salute (2/1)
Place:9Uncle Truly (3/1)
Show:4Golden Bandit (6/1)
Other contenders:11Maxwell Esquire (3/1), 12Old Flag (4/1), 10Arak (7/1), 1Tizawhitefacecat (9/1)
Rest of field:8Frozen Four (10/1), 2Rip Thorn (15/1), 13Bossme (10/1), 14Bustin Loose (12/1), 7Trap Line (12/1), 3Daneland (20/1), 6Barleewon (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 591112410
🎯 Longshots: 5119114132128741063
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #9, #4, #11  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:12Ur Fabulous (2/1)
Place:11Spirit To Inspire (5/1)
Show:6Miss Queue (9/1)
Other contenders:3La Heroica (2/1), 7Diamond Dancer (6/1), 9On Reserve (7/1), 2Lightning Lane (3/1)
Rest of field:4Leave Drama Behind (10/1), 8Upscuttled (12/1), 5Sagcy (15/1), 10Mitole's Secret (20/1), 1Strawberry Sky (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12321179
🎯 Longshots: 126410385217911
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #11, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:10A Ok (3/1)
Place:2Prince Jeremy (2/1)
Show:8Ozzy (9/1)
Other contenders:13Mr Business (7/2), 3Sneaky Sneaky (6/1), 6Balam (7/1), 5Toomuchaintenough (20/1)
Rest of field:1After Sunrise (10/1), 9Leo Q (12/1), 12Sir Liam (10/1), 7Awesome Name (15/1), 11Party At The Beach (8/1), 4Insanity It Seems (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 21013368
🎯 Longshots: 81021133121196754
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #2, #8, #13  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:1Go Go Star (7/2)
Place:8Miss M M (3/1)
Show:7Banned From Midway (2/1)
Other contenders:6Girl Bye (10/1), 3Cloudy Bay (12/1), 4Seems To Whisper (12/1)
Rest of field:5Bank Buster (15/1), 9Vingativa (7/1), 2Waterloo Sunset (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 781693
🎯 Longshots: 683475129
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · HR · Purse $13,000
Win:10Opposite The Crowd (2/1)
Place:7Cant Fake The Hate (3/1)
Show:11Lil Breezzy (10/1)
Other contenders:8True Class (6/1), 6Fiamma (9/1), 5Larimar (10/1), 4Lost Bikini (12/1)
Rest of field:3Flat Out Diamonds (7/1), 1Something Sweet (20/1), 2Ghostly Girl (20/1), 9Lucky Bop (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 10786113
🎯 Longshots: 5116471091823
🎫 Trifecta play: #10 over #7, #11, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,500
Win:2Baby Dog (5/2)
Place:4K's Red Bull (9/2)
Show:5Eyesonthecandy (2/1)
Other contenders:1Majesty's Cowboy (10/1), 6It's Only Money (7/2)
Rest of field:3I'm Great Two (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 254613
🎯 Longshots: 215346
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $19,000
Win:1Team Mischievous (5/2)
Place:4K's Unruly Newelly (3/1)
Show:2Heza King (9/2)
Other contenders:5All Roads To Denis (8/1), 7Midnight Stroller (7/2)
Rest of field:6The Groom's Jul (15/1), 3Atomic War (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 142753
🎯 Longshots: 1456237
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $15,500
Win:9Speighty War (2/1)
Place:11Glint (2/1)
Show:4Huntertown (4/1)
Other contenders:2Undalay (5/1), 10Good Moments (8/1), 12Toddchero (6/1), 1Pure Panic (10/1)
Rest of field:5Ramsey (7/1), 8Standard Of Proof (12/1), 6Homerunhappy (20/1), 3Prairie Hawk (15/1), 7Collectorate (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 911421210
🎯 Longshots: 111109821267345
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #11, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000
Win:5Royal Salute (2/1)
Place:11Maxwell Esquire (3/1)
Show:9Uncle Truly (3/1)
Other contenders:4Golden Bandit (6/1), 10Arak (7/1), 12Old Flag (4/1), 1Tizawhitefacecat (9/1)
Rest of field:13Bossme (10/1), 8Frozen Four (10/1), 2Rip Thorn (15/1), 7Trap Line (12/1), 3Daneland (20/1), 6Barleewon (20/1), 14Bustin Loose (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 511912410
🎯 Longshots: 5119114132128741063
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #11, #9, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:12Ur Fabulous (2/1)
Place:11Spirit To Inspire (5/1)
Show:9On Reserve (7/1)
Other contenders:6Miss Queue (9/1), 2Lightning Lane (3/1), 3La Heroica (2/1), 7Diamond Dancer (6/1)
Rest of field:4Leave Drama Behind (10/1), 5Sagcy (15/1), 1Strawberry Sky (20/1), 8Upscuttled (12/1), 10Mitole's Secret (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12321197
🎯 Longshots: 126410385217911
🎫 Trifecta play: #12 over #11, #9, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:2Prince Jeremy (2/1)
Place:10A Ok (3/1)
Show:13Mr Business (7/2)
Other contenders:8Ozzy (9/1), 6Balam (7/1), 3Sneaky Sneaky (6/1), 12Sir Liam (10/1)
Rest of field:9Leo Q (12/1), 1After Sunrise (10/1), 7Awesome Name (15/1), 11Party At The Beach (8/1), 5Toomuchaintenough (20/1), 4Insanity It Seems (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 21013368
🎯 Longshots: 81021133121196754
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #10, #13, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000
Win:1Go Go Star (7/2)
Place:8Miss M M (3/1)
Show:6Girl Bye (10/1)
Other contenders:7Banned From Midway (2/1), 3Cloudy Bay (12/1), 4Seems To Whisper (12/1)
Rest of field:5Bank Buster (15/1), 9Vingativa (7/1), 2Waterloo Sunset (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 781693
🎯 Longshots: 683475129
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #8, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · HR · Purse $13,000
Win:7Cant Fake The Hate (3/1)
Place:10Opposite The Crowd (2/1)
Show:6Fiamma (9/1)
Other contenders:5Larimar (10/1), 8True Class (6/1), 11Lil Breezzy (10/1), 4Lost Bikini (12/1)
Rest of field:3Flat Out Diamonds (7/1), 9Lucky Bop (15/1), 2Ghostly Girl (20/1), 1Something Sweet (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1078653
🎯 Longshots: 5116471091823
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #10, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,500
Win:2Baby Dog (5/2)
Place:5Eyesonthecandy (2/1)
Show:4K's Red Bull (9/2)
Other contenders:6It's Only Money (7/2), 1Majesty's Cowboy (10/1)
Rest of field:3I'm Great Two (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 254613
🎯 Longshots: 215346
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $19,000
Win:1Team Mischievous (5/2)
Place:4K's Unruly Newelly (3/1)
Show:2Heza King (9/2)
Other contenders:7Midnight Stroller (7/2), 5All Roads To Denis (8/1)
Rest of field:6The Groom's Jul (15/1), 3Atomic War (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 147253
🎯 Longshots: 1456237
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $15,500
Win:9Speighty War (2/1)
Place:11Glint (2/1)
Show:2Undalay (5/1)
Other contenders:12Toddchero (6/1), 1Pure Panic (10/1), 4Huntertown (4/1), 10Good Moments (8/1)
Rest of field:5Ramsey (7/1), 8Standard Of Proof (12/1), 7Collectorate (15/1), 3Prairie Hawk (15/1), 6Homerunhappy (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 91124125
🎯 Longshots: 111109821267345
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #11, #2, #12  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R2-4R2: #12,#6,#2 (55%) / R3: #3,#10,#6 (48%) / R4: #8,#1,#7 (63%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #8,#1,#7 (63%) / R5: #7,#10,#8 (53%) / R6: #2,#4,#5 (74%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #7,#10,#8 (53%) / R6: #2,#4,#5 (74%) / R7: #4,#1 (61%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 24%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #2,#4,#5 (74%) / R7: #4,#1 (61%) / R8: #11,#9,#2 (46%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 21%
Pick 4 R4-7R4: #8,#1,#7 (63%) / R5: #7,#10,#8 (53%) / R6: #2,#4,#5 (74%) / R7: #4,#1 (61%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 15%
Pick 4 R5-8R5: #7,#10,#8 (53%) / R6: #2,#4,#5 (74%) / R7: #4,#1 (61%) / R8: #11,#9,#2 (46%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 11%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
A OKAFTER SUNRISEALL ROADS TO DENISARAKATOMIC WAR
BABY DOGBALAMBANK BUSTERBANNED FROM MIDWAYBARLEEWON
BUSTIN LOOSECANT FAKE THE HATECLOUDY BAYCOLLECTORATEDANELAND
EYESONTHECANDYFIAMMAFLAT OUT DIAMONDSFROZEN FOURGHOSTLY GIRL
GLINTGO GO STARGOLDEN BANDITGOOD MOMENTSHEZA KING
HUNTERTOWNI'M GREAT TWOINSANITY IT SEEMSIT'S ONLY MONEYK'S RED BULL
LA HEROICALARIMARLEAVE DRAMA BEHINDLEO QLIGHTNING LANE
LOST BIKINILUCKY BOPMAJESTY'S COWBOYMAXWELL ESQUIREMIDNIGHT STROLLER
MISS QUEUEMITOLE'S SECRETMR BUSINESSOLD FLAGON RESERVE
OZZYPARTY AT THE BEACHPRAIRIE HAWKPRINCE JEREMYPURE PANIC
RIP THORNROYAL SALUTESAGCYSEEMS TO WHISPERSIR LIAM
SOMETHING SWEETSPEIGHTY WARSPIRIT TO INSPIRESTANDARD OF PROOFSTRAWBERRY SKY
THE GROOM'S JULTIZAWHITEFACECATTODDCHEROTOOMUCHAINTENOUGHTRAP LINE
UNCLE TRULYUNDALAYUPSCUTTLEDUR FABULOUSVINGATIVA

 


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