How did these picks do?
Results for this card as of 7:25 AM, graded from the official charts. Each row is that section's top pick in every race with a result; races still pending are not counted. The full week is in the weekly recap.
| Section | Races graded | Won | 2nd | 3rd | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algo 1 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 14% |
| Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 29% |
| Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) | 7 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 14% |
| Experimental Weight Set 2 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 14% |
| Experimental Weight Set 3 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 43% |
Kelly Edge Plays: 3 flagged longshot(s) graded, 0 won, 3 finished in the money.
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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
| Race 1 5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000 | |
| Win: | 9 – Pap's Lil Patriot (2/1) |
| Place: | 11 – Spoken Vow (5/1) |
| Show: | 12 – Don Diva (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Holly Roller (4/1), 5 – R Candy (15/1), 3 – Buxtehude (7/1), 10 – Sagcy (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8 – Reign In My Heart (5/1), 6 – Prairie Brat (12/1), 7 – Way Of Appeal (10/1), 4 – Salty Mama (15/1), 1 – Sister Winnie (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 12-9-5-11-8-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-9-5-10-11-12-2-6-4-8-3-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #11, #12, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 7 Furlongs · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $16,000 | |
| Win: | 8 – Royal Salute (2/1) |
| Place: | 7 – Misterchilliwilli (5/1) |
| Show: | 9 – Todo Fino (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Prairie Hawk (7/1), 2 – Devil's Harvest (15/1), 10 – Standard Of Proof (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Bosley (8/1), 3 – Undalay (15/1), 5 – Cool Couple (12/1), 1 – Union Branch (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-4-7-9-6-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 8-4-10-1-7-5-3-2-9-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #9, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500 | |
| Win: | 7 – Loaded Once More (2/1) |
| Place: | 1 – Fiveminutsofpasion (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 – A Little Bit Crazy (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 8 – Unstable Mabel (8/1), 6 – Rock Star Parking (6/1), 2 – General Ginny (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Opposite The Crowd (15/1), 5 – Worth Considering (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-7-6-1-2-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-8-5-1-4-6-3-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #3, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – Joker Went Wild (3/1) |
| Place: | 3 – New York New York (2/1) |
| Show: | 8 – Viva Victory (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Lucho (7/2), 7 – Southern Bullet (10/1), 4 – K's Red Bull (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Klimtster (20/1), 6 – Yemrehanakristos (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-8-1-7-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-7-1-8-6-4-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #8, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $8,500 | |
| Win: | 2 – Tiz A Hero (3/1) |
| Place: | 1 – Veri Collected (7/2) |
| Show: | 7 – Rosie Ann Rules (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Blumoon Fire (10/1), 8 – Chelle Shocked (8/1), 4 – Tornada's Quest (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Moonlight Martini (15/1), 6 – Special Cap (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-5-2-7-3-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-2-1-3-8-5-6-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #7, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $7,000 | |
| Win: | 3 – Girl Bye (8/1) |
| Place: | 2 – Flight Control (5/2) |
| Show: | 4 – Scream Machine (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Scoot Along (9/2), 7 – Romantic Jewel (7/2) |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Divisibility (15/1), 6 – Stolen Kisses (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-2-4-5-6-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-3-2-5-1-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,500 | |
| Win: | 5 – Runningforjoy (2/1) |
| Place: | 2 – Tate (7/2) |
| Show: | 4 – Semper Anticus (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Forge In Fire (5/2), 3 – El Guty (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Judge Rules (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-5-4-6-3-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-6-1-2-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Courthouse Cove (3/1) |
| Place: | 7 – Big Effect (2/1) |
| Show: | 4 – Jack Bob And Larry (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – El Cardinal (8/1), 8 – Vroysky (10/1), 5 – My Detroit City (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Dazzling Truths (15/1), 2 – Joe Don Looney (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-4-1-6-5-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-7-1-8-4-3-5-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5, |
AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
| Race 1 5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000 | |
| Win: | 9 – Pap's Lil Patriot (2/1) |
| Place: | 11 – Spoken Vow (5/1) |
| Show: | 12 – Don Diva (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Holly Roller (4/1), 3 – Buxtehude (7/1), 8 – Reign In My Heart (5/1), 5 – R Candy (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 10 – Sagcy (8/1), 6 – Prairie Brat (12/1), 7 – Way Of Appeal (10/1), 1 – Sister Winnie (20/1), 4 – Salty Mama (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 12-9-5-8-7-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-9-5-10-11-12-2-6-4-8-3-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #11, #12, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 7 Furlongs · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $16,000 | |
| Win: | 8 – Royal Salute (2/1) |
| Place: | 7 – Misterchilliwilli (5/1) |
| Show: | 9 – Todo Fino (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Prairie Hawk (7/1), 3 – Undalay (15/1), 2 – Devil's Harvest (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 10 – Standard Of Proof (10/1), 4 – Bosley (8/1), 5 – Cool Couple (12/1), 1 – Union Branch (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-4-7-1-9-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 8-4-10-1-7-5-3-2-9-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #9, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500 | |
| Win: | 7 – Loaded Once More (2/1) |
| Place: | 3 – A Little Bit Crazy (7/2) |
| Show: | 1 – Fiveminutsofpasion (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Rock Star Parking (6/1), 8 – Unstable Mabel (8/1), 4 – Opposite The Crowd (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – General Ginny (10/1), 5 – Worth Considering (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-7-5-2-6-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-8-5-1-4-6-3-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #1, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 3 – New York New York (2/1) |
| Place: | 5 – Joker Went Wild (3/1) |
| Show: | 1 – Lucho (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Southern Bullet (10/1), 4 – K's Red Bull (6/1), 8 – Viva Victory (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Yemrehanakristos (15/1), 2 – Klimtster (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-1-7-8-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-7-1-8-6-4-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #1, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $8,500 | |
| Win: | 7 – Rosie Ann Rules (2/1) |
| Place: | 2 – Tiz A Hero (3/1) |
| Show: | 1 – Veri Collected (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Blumoon Fire (10/1), 8 – Chelle Shocked (8/1), 4 – Tornada's Quest (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Moonlight Martini (15/1), 6 – Special Cap (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-5-2-7-3-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-2-1-3-8-5-6-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $7,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – Flight Control (5/2) |
| Place: | 4 – Scream Machine (3/1) |
| Show: | 1 – Scoot Along (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Romantic Jewel (7/2), 3 – Girl Bye (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Divisibility (15/1), 6 – Stolen Kisses (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-6-5-7-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-3-2-5-1-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #1, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,500 | |
| Win: | 5 – Runningforjoy (2/1) |
| Place: | 2 – Tate (7/2) |
| Show: | 6 – Forge In Fire (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Semper Anticus (9/2), 3 – El Guty (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Judge Rules (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-5-4-6-3-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-6-1-2-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #6, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Big Effect (2/1) |
| Place: | 1 – Courthouse Cove (3/1) |
| Show: | 4 – Jack Bob And Larry (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – El Cardinal (8/1), 8 – Vroysky (10/1), 5 – My Detroit City (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Dazzling Truths (15/1), 2 – Joe Don Looney (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-4-1-6-5-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-7-1-8-4-3-5-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
| Race 1 5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000 | |
| Win: | 9 – Pap's Lil Patriot (2/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -49% |
| Place: | 12 – Don Diva (7/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -54% |
| Show: | 11 – Spoken Vow (5/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -39% |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Buxtehude (7/1) 10% · fair 17-2, 2 – Holly Roller (4/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -60%, 5 – R Candy (15/1) 8% · fair 23-2 overlay +28%, 10 – Sagcy (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -37% |
| Rest of field: | 8 – Reign In My Heart (5/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -61%, 7 – Way Of Appeal (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -35%, 6 – Prairie Brat (12/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -50%, 1 – Sister Winnie (20/1) 3% · fair 71-2 underlay -44%, 4 – Salty Mama (15/1) 3% · fair 38-1 underlay -61% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 12-9-5-8-7-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-9-5-10-11-12-2-6-4-8-3-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #12, #11, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 7 Furlongs · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $16,000 | |
| Win: | 8 – Royal Salute (2/1) 27% · fair 5-2 underlay -26% |
| Place: | 7 – Misterchilliwilli (5/1) 13% · fair 13-2 |
| Show: | 9 – Todo Fino (4/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -42% |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Prairie Hawk (7/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 10 – Standard Of Proof (10/1) 8% · fair 11-1, 4 – Bosley (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -36% |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Cool Couple (12/1) 7% · fair 29-2, 3 – Undalay (15/1) 5% · fair 18-1, 2 – Devil's Harvest (15/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -30%, 1 – Union Branch (20/1) 3% · fair 30-1 underlay -33% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-4-7-1-9-10 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 8-4-10-1-7-5-3-2-9-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #9, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500 | |
| Win: | 7 – Loaded Once More (2/1) 28% · fair 5-2 |
| Place: | 3 – A Little Bit Crazy (7/2) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -39% |
| Show: | 8 – Unstable Mabel (8/1) 13% · fair 7-1 |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Rock Star Parking (6/1) 13% · fair 7-1, 1 – Fiveminutsofpasion (3/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -66%, 2 – General Ginny (10/1) 8% · fair 23-2 |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Opposite The Crowd (15/1) 8% · fair 12-1, 5 – Worth Considering (20/1) 6% · fair 16-1 overlay +27% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-5-7-2-6-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-8-5-1-4-6-3-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #8, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 3 – New York New York (2/1) 24% · fair 3-1 underlay -37% |
| Place: | 5 – Joker Went Wild (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -26% |
| Show: | 1 – Lucho (7/2) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -33% |
| Other contenders: | 4 – K's Red Bull (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -26%, 7 – Southern Bullet (10/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 6 – Yemrehanakristos (15/1) 8% · fair 23-2 overlay +30% |
| Rest of field: | 8 – Viva Victory (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -32%, 2 – Klimtster (20/1) 4% · fair 22-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-1-7-8-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-7-1-8-6-4-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $8,500 | |
| Win: | 7 – Rosie Ann Rules (2/1) 30% · fair 5-2 |
| Place: | 1 – Veri Collected (7/2) 19% · fair 4-1 |
| Show: | 2 – Tiz A Hero (3/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -46% |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Blumoon Fire (10/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 8 – Chelle Shocked (8/1) 10% · fair 19-2, 4 – Tornada's Quest (6/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -55% |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Moonlight Martini (15/1) 6% · fair 16-1, 6 – Special Cap (20/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -38% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-5-2-4-3-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-2-1-3-8-5-6-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $7,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Scream Machine (3/1) 23% · fair 7-2 |
| Place: | 1 – Scoot Along (9/2) 20% · fair 4-1 |
| Show: | 2 – Flight Control (5/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -48% |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Romantic Jewel (7/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -48%, 3 – Girl Bye (8/1) 13% · fair 7-1 |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Stolen Kisses (10/1) 8% · fair 11-1, 5 – Divisibility (15/1) 5% · fair 35-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-6-5-7-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-3-2-5-1-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,500 | |
| Win: | 5 – Runningforjoy (2/1) 27% · fair 5-2 underlay -26% |
| Place: | 6 – Forge In Fire (5/2) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -39% |
| Show: | 2 – Tate (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2 |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Semper Anticus (9/2) 17% · fair 9-2, 3 – El Guty (10/1) 11% · fair 8-1 overlay +25% |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Judge Rules (15/1) 7% · fair 14-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-4-6-5-3-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-6-1-2-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Big Effect (2/1) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -40% |
| Place: | 1 – Courthouse Cove (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -25% |
| Show: | 4 – Jack Bob And Larry (7/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -46% |
| Other contenders: | 8 – Vroysky (10/1) 12% · fair 15-2 overlay +33%, 6 – El Cardinal (8/1) 11% · fair 17-2, 3 – Dazzling Truths (15/1) 8% · fair 11-1 overlay +37% |
| Rest of field: | 5 – My Detroit City (6/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -46%, 2 – Joe Don Looney (20/1) 5% · fair 41-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-4-5-3-1-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-7-1-8-4-3-5-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #4, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ
Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.
| Race 1 | AI Exacta: #9 over #11 ($1 straight; box #9-#11 for cover) Trifecta: #9 over #11, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 2 | AI Exacta: #8 over #7 ($1 straight; box #8-#7 for cover) Trifecta: #8 over #7, #9, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 3 | AI Exacta: #7 over #3 ($1 straight; box #7-#3 for cover) Trifecta: #7 over #1, #3, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 4 | AI Exacta: #3 over #5 ($1 straight; box #3-#5 for cover) Trifecta: #3 over #5, #7, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 5 | AI Exacta: #7 over #2 ($1 straight; box #7-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #7, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 6 | AI Exacta: #4 over #2 ($1 straight; box #4-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #3, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 7 | AI Exacta: #5 over #6 ($1 straight; box #5-#6 for cover) Trifecta: #5 over #2, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 8 | AI Exacta: #7 over #1 ($1 straight; box #7-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #7 over #1, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
| Kelly Edge Plays (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob isotonic) Morning-line reliability: +0.33 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it) | |||||||
| Race | Horse | ML | Live | P(win) | Edge | ¼ Kelly | Bet on $ bankroll |
| 1 | 5 – R Candy | 15/1 | — | 10.2% | +55.9% | 0.93% | $0.93 |
| 2 | 3 – Undalay | 15/1 | — | 8.1% | +26.8% | 0.45% | $0.45 |
| 2 | 2 – Devil'S Harvest | 15/1 | — | 7.5% | +18.0% | 0.30% | $0.30 |
| 5 | 3 – Blumoon Fire | 10/1 | — | 10.3% | +12.0% | 0.30% | $0.30 |
| TOTAL across 4 plays: | 2.0% | $1.98 | |||||
| Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly. | |||||||
| 💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line. | |||||||
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
| Race 1 5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000 | |
| Win: | 9 - Pap's Lil Patriot (2/1) |
| Place: | 2 - Holly Roller (4/1) |
| Show: | 3 - Buxtehude (7/1) |
| Other contenders: | 12 - Don Diva (7/2), 11 - Spoken Vow (5/1), 8 - Reign In My Heart (5/1), 10 - Sagcy (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - R Candy (15/1), 7 - Way Of Appeal (10/1), 1 - Sister Winnie (20/1), 6 - Prairie Brat (12/1), 4 - Salty Mama (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 12-9-5-8-11-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-9-5-10-11-12-2-6-4-8-3-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #2, #3, #12 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 7 Furlongs · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $16,000 | |
| Win: | 8 - Royal Salute (2/1) |
| Place: | 9 - Todo Fino (4/1) |
| Show: | 7 - Misterchilliwilli (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 - Devil's Harvest (15/1), 10 - Standard Of Proof (10/1), 6 - Prairie Hawk (7/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Bosley (8/1), 3 - Undalay (15/1), 5 - Cool Couple (12/1), 1 - Union Branch (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-4-7-9-2-10 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 8-4-10-1-7-5-3-2-9-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #9, #7, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500 | |
| Win: | 7 - Loaded Once More (2/1) |
| Place: | 1 - Fiveminutsofpasion (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 - A Little Bit Crazy (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Rock Star Parking (6/1), 8 - Unstable Mabel (8/1), 5 - Worth Considering (20/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - General Ginny (10/1), 4 - Opposite The Crowd (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-7-1-6-5-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-8-5-1-4-6-3-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 3 - New York New York (2/1) |
| Place: | 5 - Joker Went Wild (3/1) |
| Show: | 7 - Southern Bullet (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - K's Red Bull (6/1), 1 - Lucho (7/2), 8 - Viva Victory (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Yemrehanakristos (15/1), 2 - Klimtster (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-7-1-8-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-7-1-8-6-4-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #7, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $8,500 | |
| Win: | 7 - Rosie Ann Rules (2/1) |
| Place: | 1 - Veri Collected (7/2) |
| Show: | 2 - Tiz A Hero (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 - Blumoon Fire (10/1), 4 - Tornada's Quest (6/1), 8 - Chelle Shocked (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - Moonlight Martini (15/1), 6 - Special Cap (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-5-7-2-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-2-1-3-8-5-6-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $7,000 | |
| Win: | 2 - Flight Control (5/2) |
| Place: | 4 - Scream Machine (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 - Girl Bye (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Romantic Jewel (7/2), 1 - Scoot Along (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - Divisibility (15/1), 6 - Stolen Kisses (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-2-7-1-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-3-2-5-1-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,500 | |
| Win: | 5 - Runningforjoy (2/1) |
| Place: | 4 - Semper Anticus (9/2) |
| Show: | 2 - Tate (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Forge In Fire (5/2), 3 - El Guty (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 - Judge Rules (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-4-6-1-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-6-1-2-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #2, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Courthouse Cove (3/1) |
| Place: | 4 - Jack Bob And Larry (7/2) |
| Show: | 7 - Big Effect (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8 - Vroysky (10/1), 6 - El Cardinal (8/1), 5 - My Detroit City (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Dazzling Truths (15/1), 2 - Joe Don Looney (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-4-1-6-5-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-7-1-8-4-3-5-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #7, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
| Race 1 5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000 | |
| Win: | 9 - Pap's Lil Patriot (2/1) |
| Place: | 11 - Spoken Vow (5/1) |
| Show: | 2 - Holly Roller (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 - Buxtehude (7/1), 12 - Don Diva (7/2), 10 - Sagcy (8/1), 8 - Reign In My Heart (5/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - R Candy (15/1), 7 - Way Of Appeal (10/1), 6 - Prairie Brat (12/1), 1 - Sister Winnie (20/1), 4 - Salty Mama (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 12-9-5-11-8-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-9-5-10-11-12-2-6-4-8-3-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #11, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 7 Furlongs · Turf · Optional Claiming · Purse $16,000 | |
| Win: | 8 - Royal Salute (2/1) |
| Place: | 7 - Misterchilliwilli (5/1) |
| Show: | 9 - Todo Fino (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 - Devil's Harvest (15/1), 3 - Undalay (15/1), 6 - Prairie Hawk (7/1) |
| Rest of field: | 10 - Standard Of Proof (10/1), 4 - Bosley (8/1), 5 - Cool Couple (12/1), 1 - Union Branch (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-4-7-9-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 8-4-10-1-7-5-3-2-9-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #9, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,500 | |
| Win: | 7 - Loaded Once More (2/1) |
| Place: | 1 - Fiveminutsofpasion (3/1) |
| Show: | 3 - A Little Bit Crazy (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 8 - Unstable Mabel (8/1), 6 - Rock Star Parking (6/1), 2 - General Ginny (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Opposite The Crowd (15/1), 5 - Worth Considering (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-7-1-6-2-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-8-5-1-4-6-3-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #3, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 3 - New York New York (2/1) |
| Place: | 5 - Joker Went Wild (3/1) |
| Show: | 7 - Southern Bullet (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - Lucho (7/2), 4 - K's Red Bull (6/1), 8 - Viva Victory (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Klimtster (20/1), 6 - Yemrehanakristos (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-7-1-8-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-7-1-8-6-4-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #7, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $8,500 | |
| Win: | 2 - Tiz A Hero (3/1) |
| Place: | 7 - Rosie Ann Rules (2/1) |
| Show: | 1 - Veri Collected (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3 - Blumoon Fire (10/1), 4 - Tornada's Quest (6/1), 8 - Chelle Shocked (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - Moonlight Martini (15/1), 6 - Special Cap (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-5-2-7-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-2-1-3-8-5-6-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $7,000 | |
| Win: | 2 - Flight Control (5/2) |
| Place: | 3 - Girl Bye (8/1) |
| Show: | 4 - Scream Machine (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - Scoot Along (9/2), 7 - Romantic Jewel (7/2) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Stolen Kisses (10/1), 5 - Divisibility (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-2-7-1-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-3-2-5-1-7-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,500 | |
| Win: | 5 - Runningforjoy (2/1) |
| Place: | 2 - Tate (7/2) |
| Show: | 4 - Semper Anticus (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Forge In Fire (5/2), 3 - El Guty (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 - Judge Rules (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-1-4-6-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-6-1-2-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 5 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 7 - Big Effect (2/1) |
| Place: | 1 - Courthouse Cove (3/1) |
| Show: | 4 - Jack Bob And Larry (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - El Cardinal (8/1), 8 - Vroysky (10/1), 5 - My Detroit City (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Dazzling Truths (15/1), 2 - Joe Don Looney (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 8-1-4-6-7-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-7-1-8-4-3-5-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1, |
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ
Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.
| Pick 3 R3-5 | R3: #7,#3,#8 (56%) / R4: #3,#5,#1 (60%) / R5: #7,#1,#2 (65%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22% |
| Pick 3 R4-6 | R4: #3,#5,#1 (60%) / R5: #7,#1,#2 (65%) / R6: #4,#1,#2 (61%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23% |
| Pick 3 R5-7 | R5: #7,#1,#2 (65%) / R6: #4,#1,#2 (61%) / R7: #5,#6,#2 (65%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25% |
| Pick 3 R6-8 | R6: #4,#1,#2 (61%) / R7: #5,#6,#2 (65%) / R8: #7,#1,#4 (56%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22% |
| Pick 4 R4-7 | R4: #3,#5,#1 (60%) / R5: #7,#1,#2 (65%) / R6: #4,#1,#2 (61%) / R7: #5,#6,#2 (65%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 15% |
| Pick 4 R5-8 | R5: #7,#1,#2 (65%) / R6: #4,#1,#2 (61%) / R7: #5,#6,#2 (65%) / R8: #7,#1,#4 (56%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 14% |
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
| A LITTLE BIT CRAZY | BIG EFFECT | BLUMOON FIRE | BOSLEY | BUXTEHUDE |
| COOL COUPLE | COURTHOUSE COVE | DAZZLING TRUTHS | DEVIL'S HARVEST | DIVISIBILITY |
| EL CARDINAL | EL GUTY | FIVEMINUTSOFPASION | FLIGHT CONTROL | FORGE IN FIRE |
| GIRL BYE | HOLLY ROLLER | JACK BOB AND LARRY | JOE DON LOONEY | JOKER WENT WILD |
| K'S RED BULL | KLIMTSTER | LOADED ONCE MORE | LUCHO | MISTERCHILLIWILLI |
| MY DETROIT CITY | NEW YORK NEW YORK | OPPOSITE THE CROWD | PAP'S LIL PATRIOT | PRAIRIE BRAT |
| R CANDY | REIGN IN MY HEART | ROCK STAR PARKING | ROMANTIC JEWEL | ROSIE ANN RULES |
| RUNNINGFORJOY | SAGCY | SALTY MAMA | SCOOT ALONG | SCREAM MACHINE |
| SISTER WINNIE | SOUTHERN BULLET | SPECIAL CAP | SPOKEN VOW | STANDARD OF PROOF |
| TATE | TIZ A HERO | TODO FINO | TORNADA'S QUEST | UNDALAY |
| UNSTABLE MABEL | VERI COLLECTED | VIVA VICTORY | VROYSKY | WAY OF APPEAL |
| YEMREHANAKRISTOS |
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