How did these picks do?
Results for this card as of 7:34 AM, graded from the official charts. Each row is that section's top pick in every race with a result; races still pending are not counted. The full week is in the weekly recap.
| Section | Races graded | Won | 2nd | 3rd | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algo 1 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0% |
| Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 17% |
| Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) | 6 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0% |
| Experimental Weight Set 2 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0% |
| Experimental Weight Set 3 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 33% |
Kelly Edge Plays: 2 flagged longshot(s) graded, 0 won, 1 finished in the money.
Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000 | |
| Win: | 3 – Valentine Bug (2/1) |
| Place: | 7 – Legal Titan (3/1) |
| Show: | 4 – Trap Line (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 9 – Ramesses (5/1), 6 – Krug (7/1), 5 – He's A Shooter (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Hot Wings (15/1), 1 – If I Were You (20/1), 8 – Citizen (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-2-4-3-6-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-1-7-8-2-6-9-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #4, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $13,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – New Age Bad Girl (4/1) |
| Place: | 4 – Miss M M (2/1) |
| Show: | 11 – Cloudy Bay (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 9 – Alien Princess (7/1), 5 – Seems To Whisper (5/1), 2 – Machen Reigns (8/1), 7 – Lost Bikini (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Greyhound Station (12/1), 3 – Sicilian Style Two (15/1), 8 – Kaiyas Song (15/1), 10 – Grey Market (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-9-11-6-4 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-6-1-7-9-2-3-5-11-8-10 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #11, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $11,000 | |
| Win: | 7 – Photo Finish (10/1) |
| Place: | 5 – Blinging Burr (5/1) |
| Show: | 3 – One Annie (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 12 – Golden Charm (5/1), 8 – Super Honey Timber (2/1), 13 – Prussian Blue (4/1), 1 – Myra Fleener (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 11 – Save The Flag (10/1), 10 – Marmara (7/1), 2 – Bank Buster (15/1), 9 – Constitutionalist (8/1), 4 – Smiles For David (15/1), 14 – One Violent Affair (15/1), 6 – Bellavalencia (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-4-9-8-5-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-9-11-8-1-4-5-3-2-12-14-10-13-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #3, #12 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – A Ok (7/2) |
| Place: | 1 – Prince Jeremy (2/1) |
| Show: | 4 – Giacomo Casanova (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Blown Away (5/2), 6 – Fernando's Gold (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Red Roscoe (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-5-1-2-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-6-3-5-4-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – Ember (5/2) |
| Place: | 2 – Mr Hoover (2/1) |
| Show: | 5 – King Miano (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Innuendo (7/2), 1 – Cool Quartet (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Drewpower (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-2-4-5-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-6-5-1-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #5, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – Zippy Gizmo (5/2) |
| Place: | 7 – Gilligan (3/1) |
| Show: | 4 – Kantpaythetoll (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Hapi Hapi (8/1), 3 – Sight Unseen (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Gold Buckle (10/1), 5 – First Citizen (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-1-4-5-7-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-6-7-4-2-3-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – True Connection (5/2) |
| Place: | 3 – Wiley Willard (3/1) |
| Show: | 1 – Breezy Money (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Arak (7/2), 5 – Vanzzy (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Big Spin (8/1), 6 – Only Get'n Better (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-2-3-4-1-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-3-1-7-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $15,500 | |
| Win: | 3 – Mama Marge (2/1) |
| Place: | 8 – Notiptoni (4/1) |
| Show: | 1 – Redwhiteandtacos (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Kozem (5/1), 4 – The Shoe Lady (15/1), 2 – Take Wings (7/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Years Ago (10/1), 10 – Dancing Chime (15/1), 6 – Fortunata Italia (12/1), 9 – Mean To Me (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-3-8-6-7-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-4-7-8-10-6-5-2-9 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5, |
AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000 | |
| Win: | 3 – Valentine Bug (2/1) |
| Place: | 7 – Legal Titan (3/1) |
| Show: | 6 – Krug (7/1) |
| Other contenders: | 9 – Ramesses (5/1), 4 – Trap Line (6/1), 5 – He's A Shooter (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 8 – Citizen (10/1), 1 – If I Were You (20/1), 2 – Hot Wings (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-2-4-3-8-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-1-7-8-2-6-9-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #6, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $13,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – New Age Bad Girl (4/1) |
| Place: | 4 – Miss M M (2/1) |
| Show: | 9 – Alien Princess (7/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Lost Bikini (10/1), 5 – Seems To Whisper (5/1), 11 – Cloudy Bay (5/1), 2 – Machen Reigns (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Greyhound Station (12/1), 3 – Sicilian Style Two (15/1), 10 – Grey Market (20/1), 8 – Kaiyas Song (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-9-11-6-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-6-1-7-9-2-3-5-11-8-10 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #9, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $11,000 | |
| Win: | 8 – Super Honey Timber (2/1) |
| Place: | 3 – One Annie (4/1) |
| Show: | 5 – Blinging Burr (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Photo Finish (10/1), 12 – Golden Charm (5/1), 10 – Marmara (7/1), 9 – Constitutionalist (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 13 – Prussian Blue (4/1), 11 – Save The Flag (10/1), 2 – Bank Buster (15/1), 1 – Myra Fleener (12/1), 14 – One Violent Affair (15/1), 4 – Smiles For David (15/1), 6 – Bellavalencia (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-4-9-8-5-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-9-11-8-1-4-5-3-2-12-14-10-13-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #5, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000 | |
| Win: | 1 – Prince Jeremy (2/1) |
| Place: | 5 – A Ok (7/2) |
| Show: | 4 – Giacomo Casanova (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Blown Away (5/2), 6 – Fernando's Gold (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Red Roscoe (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-5-2-1-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-6-3-5-4-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – Ember (5/2) |
| Place: | 2 – Mr Hoover (2/1) |
| Show: | 5 – King Miano (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Innuendo (7/2), 1 – Cool Quartet (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Drewpower (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-2-3-1-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-6-5-1-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #5, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – Zippy Gizmo (5/2) |
| Place: | 4 – Kantpaythetoll (7/2) |
| Show: | 7 – Gilligan (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Sight Unseen (9/2), 1 – Hapi Hapi (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Gold Buckle (10/1), 5 – First Citizen (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-1-5-4-7-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-6-7-4-2-3-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #7, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000 | |
| Win: | 2 – True Connection (5/2) |
| Place: | 4 – Arak (7/2) |
| Show: | 3 – Wiley Willard (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Breezy Money (9/2), 7 – Big Spin (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Vanzzy (10/1), 6 – Only Get'n Better (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-2-4-7-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-3-1-7-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #3, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $15,500 | |
| Win: | 3 – Mama Marge (2/1) |
| Place: | 5 – Kozem (5/1) |
| Show: | 8 – Notiptoni (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 2 – Take Wings (7/1), 1 – Redwhiteandtacos (8/1), 7 – Years Ago (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 – The Shoe Lady (15/1), 6 – Fortunata Italia (12/1), 9 – Mean To Me (20/1), 10 – Dancing Chime (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-7-3-10-8 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-4-7-8-10-6-5-2-9 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #8, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000 | |
| Win: | 3 – Valentine Bug (2/1) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -41% |
| Place: | 7 – Legal Titan (3/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -46% |
| Show: | 9 – Ramesses (5/1) 13% · fair 13-2 |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Trap Line (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 6 – Krug (7/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -28%, 8 – Citizen (10/1) 9% · fair 10-1 |
| Rest of field: | 5 – He's A Shooter (12/1) 7% · fair 13-1, 2 – Hot Wings (15/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 1 – If I Were You (20/1) 4% · fair 22-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-2-4-3-8-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-1-7-8-2-6-9-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #9, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $13,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Miss M M (2/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -67% |
| Place: | 7 – Lost Bikini (10/1) 13% · fair 13-2 overlay +53% |
| Show: | 1 – New Age Bad Girl (4/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -40% |
| Other contenders: | 11 – Cloudy Bay (5/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -26%, 9 – Alien Princess (7/1) 12% · fair 7-1, 5 – Seems To Whisper (5/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -52%, 2 – Machen Reigns (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -37% |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Greyhound Station (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 3 – Sicilian Style Two (15/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -27%, 8 – Kaiyas Song (15/1) 4% · fair 27-1 underlay -45%, 10 – Grey Market (20/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -37% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-9-11-8-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-6-1-7-9-2-3-5-11-8-10 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #1, #11 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $11,000 | |
| Win: | 8 – Super Honey Timber (2/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -57% |
| Place: | 9 – Constitutionalist (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1 |
| Show: | 5 – Blinging Burr (5/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -41% |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Photo Finish (10/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 10 – Marmara (7/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -36%, 12 – Golden Charm (5/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -55%, 13 – Prussian Blue (4/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -72% |
| Rest of field: | 3 – One Annie (4/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -72%, 11 – Save The Flag (10/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -39%, 14 – One Violent Affair (15/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -28%, 1 – Myra Fleener (12/1) 4% · fair 45-2 underlay -46%, 2 – Bank Buster (15/1) 3% · fair 36-1 underlay -58%, 4 – Smiles For David (15/1) 3% · fair 75-2 underlay -60%, 6 – Bellavalencia (20/1) 2% · fair 55-1 underlay -64% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-4-9-8-2-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-9-11-8-1-4-5-3-2-12-14-10-13-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #9, #5, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – A Ok (7/2) 28% · fair 5-2 overlay +35% |
| Place: | 1 – Prince Jeremy (2/1) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -43% |
| Show: | 4 – Giacomo Casanova (9/2) 19% · fair 9-2 |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Blown Away (5/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -56%, 6 – Fernando's Gold (10/1) 9% · fair 10-1 |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Red Roscoe (15/1) 7% · fair 27-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-5-2-1-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-6-3-5-4-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – Ember (5/2) 34% · fair 2-1 overlay +29% |
| Place: | 2 – Mr Hoover (2/1) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -57% |
| Show: | 5 – King Miano (9/2) 17% · fair 5-1 |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Innuendo (7/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -37%, 1 – Cool Quartet (10/1) 11% · fair 8-1 |
| Rest of field: | 4 – Drewpower (15/1) 6% · fair 17-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-2-3-1-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-6-5-1-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #5, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 6 – Zippy Gizmo (5/2) 28% · fair 5-2 |
| Place: | 3 – Sight Unseen (9/2) 17% · fair 9-2 |
| Show: | 4 – Kantpaythetoll (7/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -36% |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Gilligan (3/1) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -57%, 1 – Hapi Hapi (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2 |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Gold Buckle (10/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 5 – First Citizen (15/1) 5% · fair 35-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-5-1-4-2-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-6-7-4-2-3-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #4, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000 | |
| Win: | 3 – Wiley Willard (3/1) 21% · fair 7-2 |
| Place: | 4 – Arak (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2 |
| Show: | 2 – True Connection (5/2) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -57% |
| Other contenders: | 7 – Big Spin (8/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 5 – Vanzzy (10/1) 13% · fair 7-1 overlay +46% |
| Rest of field: | 1 – Breezy Money (9/2) 11% · fair 15-2 underlay -42%, 6 – Only Get'n Better (15/1) 8% · fair 11-1 overlay +35% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-2-4-7-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-3-1-7-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #2, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $15,500 | |
| Win: | 3 – Mama Marge (2/1) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -52% |
| Place: | 5 – Kozem (5/1) 17% · fair 5-1 |
| Show: | 8 – Notiptoni (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -27% |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Redwhiteandtacos (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 2 – Take Wings (7/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 7 – Years Ago (10/1) 10% · fair 19-2 |
| Rest of field: | 4 – The Shoe Lady (15/1) 6% · fair 17-1, 6 – Fortunata Italia (12/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -48%, 9 – Mean To Me (20/1) 4% · fair 26-1, 10 – Dancing Chime (15/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -44% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-2-7-10-3-9 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-4-7-8-10-6-5-2-9 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #8, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ
Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.
| Race 1 | AI Exacta: #3 over #7 ($1 straight; box #3-#7 for cover) Trifecta: #3 over #7, #6, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 2 | AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #4, #5, #11 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 3 | AI Exacta: #8 over #3 ($1 straight; box #8-#3 for cover) Trifecta: #8 over #5, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 4 | AI Exacta: #1 over #5 ($1 straight; box #1-#5 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #5, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 5 | AI Exacta: #6 over #2 ($1 straight; box #6-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #6, #5, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 6 | AI Exacta: #6 over #4 ($1 straight; box #6-#4 for cover) Trifecta: #6 over #4, #7, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 7 | AI Exacta: #2 over #1 ($1 straight; box #2-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #1, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 8 | AI Exacta: #3 over #8 ($1 straight; box #3-#8 for cover) Trifecta: #3 over #1, #8, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
| Kelly Edge Plays (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob isotonic) Morning-line reliability: +0.33 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it) | |||||||
| Race | Horse | ML | Live | P(win) | Edge | ¼ Kelly | Bet on $ bankroll |
| 3 | 7 – Photo Finish | 10/1 | — | 11.5% | +23.9% | 0.60% | $0.60 |
| 2 | 10 – Grey Market | 20/1 | — | 5.8% | +19.4% | 0.24% | $0.24 |
| TOTAL across 2 plays: | 0.8% | $0.84 | |||||
| Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly. | |||||||
| 💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line. | |||||||
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000 | |
| Win: | 3 - Valentine Bug (2/1) |
| Place: | 7 - Legal Titan (3/1) |
| Show: | 9 - Ramesses (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Krug (7/1), 4 - Trap Line (6/1), 2 - Hot Wings (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - He's A Shooter (12/1), 8 - Citizen (10/1), 1 - If I Were You (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-2-4-3-6-9 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-1-7-8-2-6-9-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #9, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $13,000 | |
| Win: | 4 - Miss M M (2/1) |
| Place: | 1 - New Age Bad Girl (4/1) |
| Show: | 9 - Alien Princess (7/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Lost Bikini (10/1), 11 - Cloudy Bay (5/1), 5 - Seems To Whisper (5/1), 6 - Greyhound Station (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Sicilian Style Two (15/1), 8 - Kaiyas Song (15/1), 2 - Machen Reigns (8/1), 10 - Grey Market (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-9-2-11-4-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-6-1-7-9-2-3-5-11-8-10 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #9, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $11,000 | |
| Win: | 8 - Super Honey Timber (2/1) |
| Place: | 3 - One Annie (4/1) |
| Show: | 14 - One Violent Affair (15/1) |
| Other contenders: | 9 - Constitutionalist (8/1), 5 - Blinging Burr (5/1), 10 - Marmara (7/1), 7 - Photo Finish (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 11 - Save The Flag (10/1), 12 - Golden Charm (5/1), 13 - Prussian Blue (4/1), 1 - Myra Fleener (12/1), 2 - Bank Buster (15/1), 4 - Smiles For David (15/1), 6 - Bellavalencia (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-8-9-5-4-14 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-9-11-8-1-4-5-3-2-12-14-10-13-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #14, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000 | |
| Win: | 5 - A Ok (7/2) |
| Place: | 4 - Giacomo Casanova (9/2) |
| Show: | 1 - Prince Jeremy (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 - Blown Away (5/2), 6 - Fernando's Gold (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Red Roscoe (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-5-1-6-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-6-3-5-4-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 6 - Ember (5/2) |
| Place: | 2 - Mr Hoover (2/1) |
| Show: | 5 - King Miano (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3 - Innuendo (7/2), 1 - Cool Quartet (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Drewpower (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-2-3-5-4-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-6-5-1-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #5, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 6 - Zippy Gizmo (5/2) |
| Place: | 4 - Kantpaythetoll (7/2) |
| Show: | 7 - Gilligan (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - Hapi Hapi (8/1), 3 - Sight Unseen (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Gold Buckle (10/1), 5 - First Citizen (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-4-1-7-5-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-6-7-4-2-3-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #7, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000 | |
| Win: | 4 - Arak (7/2) |
| Place: | 2 - True Connection (5/2) |
| Show: | 3 - Wiley Willard (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Big Spin (8/1), 1 - Breezy Money (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Only Get'n Better (15/1), 5 - Vanzzy (10/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-3-2-7-5-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-3-1-7-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $15,500 | |
| Win: | 3 - Mama Marge (2/1) |
| Place: | 5 - Kozem (5/1) |
| Show: | 7 - Years Ago (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 8 - Notiptoni (4/1), 2 - Take Wings (7/1), 1 - Redwhiteandtacos (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - The Shoe Lady (15/1), 6 - Fortunata Italia (12/1), 10 - Dancing Chime (15/1), 9 - Mean To Me (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-2-7-6-8-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-4-7-8-10-6-5-2-9 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #7, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
| Race 1 1 Miles · Turf · Claiming · Purse $12,000 | |
| Win: | 3 - Valentine Bug (2/1) |
| Place: | 7 - Legal Titan (3/1) |
| Show: | 6 - Krug (7/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Trap Line (6/1), 9 - Ramesses (5/1), 5 - He's A Shooter (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 - If I Were You (20/1), 8 - Citizen (10/1), 2 - Hot Wings (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-2-4-3-6-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-5-1-7-8-2-6-9-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #6, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $13,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - New Age Bad Girl (4/1) |
| Place: | 4 - Miss M M (2/1) |
| Show: | 5 - Seems To Whisper (5/1) |
| Other contenders: | 11 - Cloudy Bay (5/1), 7 - Lost Bikini (10/1), 9 - Alien Princess (7/1), 3 - Sicilian Style Two (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Machen Reigns (8/1), 6 - Greyhound Station (12/1), 8 - Kaiyas Song (15/1), 10 - Grey Market (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-9-11-4-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-6-1-7-9-2-3-5-11-8-10 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #5, #11 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 7 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $11,000 | |
| Win: | 8 - Super Honey Timber (2/1) |
| Place: | 5 - Blinging Burr (5/1) |
| Show: | 3 - One Annie (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 7 - Photo Finish (10/1), 13 - Prussian Blue (4/1), 12 - Golden Charm (5/1), 1 - Myra Fleener (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 10 - Marmara (7/1), 9 - Constitutionalist (8/1), 2 - Bank Buster (15/1), 11 - Save The Flag (10/1), 4 - Smiles For David (15/1), 14 - One Violent Affair (15/1), 6 - Bellavalencia (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 7-8-9-5-4-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 7-9-11-8-1-4-5-3-2-12-14-10-13-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000 | |
| Win: | 1 - Prince Jeremy (2/1) |
| Place: | 5 - A Ok (7/2) |
| Show: | 4 - Giacomo Casanova (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3 - Blown Away (5/2), 6 - Fernando's Gold (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Red Roscoe (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-5-1-2-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-6-3-5-4-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 2 - Mr Hoover (2/1) |
| Place: | 6 - Ember (5/2) |
| Show: | 5 - King Miano (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3 - Innuendo (7/2), 1 - Cool Quartet (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 4 - Drewpower (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-2-5-4-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-6-5-1-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #5, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $9,000 | |
| Win: | 6 - Zippy Gizmo (5/2) |
| Place: | 4 - Kantpaythetoll (7/2) |
| Show: | 7 - Gilligan (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - Hapi Hapi (8/1), 3 - Sight Unseen (9/2) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Gold Buckle (10/1), 5 - First Citizen (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-1-4-7-5-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-6-7-4-2-3-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #7, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,000 | |
| Win: | 2 - True Connection (5/2) |
| Place: | 1 - Breezy Money (9/2) |
| Show: | 4 - Arak (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 3 - Wiley Willard (3/1), 7 - Big Spin (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 5 - Vanzzy (10/1), 6 - Only Get'n Better (15/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 2-3-4-5-1-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-3-1-7-4-6 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 8 6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $15,500 | |
| Win: | 3 - Mama Marge (2/1) |
| Place: | 1 - Redwhiteandtacos (8/1) |
| Show: | 8 - Notiptoni (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 - Kozem (5/1), 4 - The Shoe Lady (15/1), 2 - Take Wings (7/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 - Years Ago (10/1), 10 - Dancing Chime (15/1), 6 - Fortunata Italia (12/1), 9 - Mean To Me (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-8-1-2-6-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 1-3-4-7-8-10-6-5-2-9 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #8, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1, |
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ
Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.
| Pick 3 R3-5 | R3: #8,#9,#5 (40%) / R4: #5,#1,#4 (69%) / R5: #6,#2,#5 (68%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19% |
| Pick 3 R4-6 | R4: #5,#1,#4 (69%) / R5: #6,#2,#5 (68%) / R6: #6,#3,#4 (61%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29% |
| Pick 3 R5-7 | R5: #6,#2,#5 (68%) / R6: #6,#3,#4 (61%) / R7: #3,#4,#2 (54%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23% |
| Pick 3 R6-8 | R6: #6,#3,#4 (61%) / R7: #3,#4,#2 (54%) / R8: #3,#5,#8 (52%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17% |
| Pick 4 R4-7 | R4: #5,#1,#4 (69%) / R5: #6,#2,#5 (68%) / R6: #6,#3,#4 (61%) / R7: #3,#4,#2 (54%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 16% |
| Pick 4 R5-8 | R5: #6,#2,#5 (68%) / R6: #6,#3,#4 (61%) / R7: #3,#4,#2 (54%) / R8: #3,#5,#8 (52%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 12% |
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
| A OK | ALIEN PRINCESS | ARAK | BANK BUSTER | BELLAVALENCIA |
| BLINGING BURR | BLOWN AWAY | BREEZY MONEY | CITIZEN | CLOUDY BAY |
| COOL QUARTET | DANCING CHIME | DREWPOWER | EMBER | FERNANDO'S GOLD |
| FORTUNATA ITALIA | GIACOMO CASANOVA | GILLIGAN | GOLD BUCKLE | GOLDEN CHARM |
| GREYHOUND STATION | HAPI HAPI | HE'S A SHOOTER | HOT WINGS | IF I WERE YOU |
| KAIYAS SONG | KANTPAYTHETOLL | KING MIANO | KOZEM | KRUG |
| LOST BIKINI | MACHEN REIGNS | MAMA MARGE | MARMARA | MEAN TO ME |
| MR HOOVER | MYRA FLEENER | NEW AGE BAD GIRL | NOTIPTONI | ONE ANNIE |
| ONLY GET'N BETTER | PHOTO FINISH | PRINCE JEREMY | PRUSSIAN BLUE | RAMESSES |
| REDWHITEANDTACOS | SAVE THE FLAG | SEEMS TO WHISPER | SICILIAN STYLE TWO | SIGHT UNSEEN |
| SUPER HONEY TIMBER | TAKE WINGS | THE SHOE LADY | TRAP LINE | TRUE CONNECTION |
| VANZZY | WILEY WILLARD | YEARS AGO | ZIPPY GIZMO |
Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
