Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Parx Racing, November 2, 2026


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $60,000
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Warrior's Finale (5/2)
Place:4Vandalism (7/2)
Show:1Tengo Esperanza (5/1)
Other contenders:2Gypsy Lane (5/1), 5Honeysmakemoney (4/1)
Rest of field:7Brandenburg Gate (8/1), 6So Noble (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 341527
🎯 Longshots: 3451276
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Cojelo Pa Ti (2/1)
Place:1Lex (4/1)
Show:6Carnaby (3/1)
Other contenders:5Cassation (5/1), 2Hey Buddy (5/1)
Rest of field:3Float On (9/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 416523
🎯 Longshots: 416523
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6My Last Mission (6/5)
Place:2Admiral's Wave (7/2)
Show:5Riley's Rockstar (9/2)
Other contenders:4He's Got Swagger (5/1), 1Lunar Rocket (10/1)
Rest of field:3Union Purrfection (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 625413
🎯 Longshots: 612543
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $32,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Itsagrandplacetobe (5/2)
Place:3Vital (3/1)
Show:4My Pretty Boy (4/1)
Other contenders:5Prayed Up (5/1), 2Third Bite (6/1)
Rest of field:1Schubert Sonata (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 634521
🎯 Longshots: 635412
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $60,000
Win:3Yourownspecialway (2/1)
Place:7Peaches N Dreams (5/1)
Show:5Mommy Makeover (4/1)
Other contenders:2Holy Ground (5/1), 8First Blush (6/1), 6Minxzmajestkmystic (8/1)
Rest of field:1Arrestingly (12/1), 4Emily Sloan (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 357286
🎯 Longshots: 32756814
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $21,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Blame Eve (3/1)
Place:7Shes The Tall One (9/5)
Show:3Noble Annie (2/1)
Other contenders:2Ranting And Raving (5/1), 1Catrina Zar (15/1), 4Eleanor Rigby (15/1)
Rest of field:5Keystormrising (20/1), 6Nouveau Riche (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 783214
🎯 Longshots: 87321456
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $60,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Chef Sparrow (9/5)
Place:5Cannonbury (3/1)
Show:2Sixty Six Books (5/1)
Other contenders:4Snipe Hunt (4/1), 6Penniless Pauly (6/1)
Rest of field:1Kpnupwiththejones (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 352461
🎯 Longshots: 324561
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $50,000
Win:4Welovemollynteddy (2/1)
Place:3Flying Free (4/1)
Show:8Hay Hay Renee (5/1)
Other contenders:2Miss Ma'am (6/1), 6Olympic Dreamer (8/1), 5No One Else's (6/1)
Rest of field:7Funny Music (8/1), 1Ginster (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 438265
🎯 Longshots: 46382175
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $21,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Miss Anna Bella (7/2)
Place:6Twist Her (4/1)
Show:3California Smoke (5/1)
Other contenders:4Endless Glow (9/2), 9Tap And A Hug (6/1), 10Noulikeabook (6/1)
Rest of field:8No Mo Muffins (8/1), 2Flaming Eyes (8/1), 7Silver City Kitty (10/1), 5Sweet Distraction (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1634910
🎯 Longshots: 18274536109
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Parx Racing — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 204 graded races at Parx Racing, 2026-09-07 to 2026-10-31.

0%11%21%32%43%Our top pick: 34.3% from 204 racesOur top pick34.3%Morning-line favourite: 31.9% from 204 racesMorning-line favourite31.9%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick34.3%204
Morning-line favourite31.9%204
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $60,000
Win:3Warrior's Finale (5/2) 27% · fair 5-2
Place:4Vandalism (7/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Show:1Tengo Esperanza (5/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:5Honeysmakemoney (4/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -35%, 7Brandenburg Gate (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2
Rest of field:2Gypsy Lane (5/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -56%, 6So Noble (8/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -57%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Warrior'S Finale — 26.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Warrior'S Finale26.7% ◀Vandalism — 20.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Vandalism20.2%Tengo Esperanza — 17.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Tengo Esperanza17.1%Honeysmakemoney — 13.9% win probability, morning line 4/1Honeysmakemoney13.9%Brandenburg Gate — 8.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Brandenburg Gate8.9%Gypsy Lane — 8.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Gypsy Lane8.0%So Noble — 5.1% win probability, morning line 8/1So Noble5.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Warrior'S Finale26.7%2.5/1
Vandalism20.2%3.5/1
Tengo Esperanza17.1%5/1
Honeysmakemoney13.9%4/1
Brandenburg Gate8.9%8/1
Gypsy Lane8.0%5/1
So Noble5.1%8/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherWarrior'S Finale: model 26.7% vs market 22.6% (+4.1 points)Warrior'S Finale+4.1Vandalism: model 20.2% vs market 17.6% (+2.6 points)Vandalism+2.6Tengo Esperanza: model 17.1% vs market 13.2% (+4.0 points)Tengo Esperanza+4.0Honeysmakemoney: model 13.9% vs market 15.8% (-1.9 points)Honeysmakemoney-1.9Brandenburg Gate: model 8.9% vs market 8.8% (+0.1 points)Brandenburg Gate+0.1Gypsy Lane: model 8.0% vs market 13.2% (-5.2 points)Gypsy Lane-5.2So Noble: model 5.1% vs market 8.8% (-3.6 points)So Noble-3.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Warrior'S Finale26.7%22.6%+4.1
Vandalism20.2%17.6%+2.6
Tengo Esperanza17.1%13.2%+4.0
Honeysmakemoney13.9%15.8%-1.9
Brandenburg Gate8.9%8.8%+0.1
Gypsy Lane8.0%13.2%-5.2
So Noble5.1%8.8%-3.6
🌧️ Off-track: 341527
🎯 Longshots: 3451276
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:1Lex (4/1) 26% · fair 3-1 overlay +40%
Place:4Cojelo Pa Ti (2/1) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -45%
Show:5Cassation (5/1) 19% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:6Carnaby (3/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -55%, 2Hey Buddy (5/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -37%
Rest of field:3Float On (9/2) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -55%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Lex — 25.9% win probability, morning line 4/1Lex25.9% ◀Cojelo Pa Ti — 21.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Cojelo Pa Ti21.6%Cassation — 19.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Cassation19.2%Carnaby — 13.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Carnaby13.0%Hey Buddy — 11.2% win probability, morning line 5/1Hey Buddy11.2%Float On — 9.1% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Float On9.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Lex25.9%4/1
Cojelo Pa Ti21.6%2/1
Cassation19.2%5/1
Carnaby13.0%3/1
Hey Buddy11.2%5/1
Float On9.1%4.5/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherLex: model 25.9% vs market 15.4% (+10.5 points)Lex+10.5Cojelo Pa Ti: model 21.6% vs market 25.7% (-4.1 points)Cojelo Pa Ti-4.1Cassation: model 19.2% vs market 12.8% (+6.4 points)Cassation+6.4Carnaby: model 13.0% vs market 19.3% (-6.2 points)Carnaby-6.2Hey Buddy: model 11.2% vs market 12.8% (-1.7 points)Hey Buddy-1.7Float On: model 9.1% vs market 14.0% (-4.9 points)Float On-4.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Lex25.9%15.4%+10.5
Cojelo Pa Ti21.6%25.7%-4.1
Cassation19.2%12.8%+6.4
Carnaby13.0%19.3%-6.2
Hey Buddy11.2%12.8%-1.7
Float On9.1%14.0%-4.9
🌧️ Off-track: 415623
🎯 Longshots: 416523
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:6My Last Mission (6/5) 48% · fair 1-1
Place:2Admiral's Wave (7/2) 19% · fair 9-2
Show:5Riley's Rockstar (9/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:4He's Got Swagger (5/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -53%, 1Lunar Rocket (10/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -52%
Rest of field:3Union Purrfection (15/1) 3% · fair 35-1 underlay -57%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

My Last Mission — 47.7% win probability, morning line 1.2/1My Last Mission47.7% ◀Admiral'S Wave — 18.8% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Admiral'S Wave18.8%Riley'S Rockstar — 17.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Riley'S Rockstar17.5%He'S Got Swagger — 8.6% win probability, morning line 5/1He'S Got Swagger8.6%Lunar Rocket — 4.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Lunar Rocket4.6%Union Purrfection — 2.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Union Purrfection2.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
My Last Mission47.7%1.2/1
Admiral'S Wave18.8%3.5/1
Riley'S Rockstar17.5%4.5/1
He'S Got Swagger8.6%5/1
Lunar Rocket4.6%10/1
Union Purrfection2.8%15/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMy Last Mission: model 47.7% vs market 38.6% (+9.1 points)My Last Mission+9.1Admiral'S Wave: model 18.8% vs market 18.9% (-0.0 points)Admiral'S Wave-0.0Riley'S Rockstar: model 17.5% vs market 15.4% (+2.1 points)Riley'S Rockstar+2.1He'S Got Swagger: model 8.6% vs market 14.1% (-5.6 points)He'S Got Swagger-5.6Lunar Rocket: model 4.6% vs market 7.7% (-3.1 points)Lunar Rocket-3.1Union Purrfection: model 2.8% vs market 5.3% (-2.5 points)Union Purrfection-2.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
My Last Mission47.7%38.6%+9.1
Admiral'S Wave18.8%18.9%-0.0
Riley'S Rockstar17.5%15.4%+2.1
He'S Got Swagger8.6%14.1%-5.6
Lunar Rocket4.6%7.7%-3.1
Union Purrfection2.8%5.3%-2.5
🌧️ Off-track: 625413
🎯 Longshots: 612543
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $32,000
Win:4My Pretty Boy (4/1) 20% · fair 4-1
Place:3Vital (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -25%
Show:6Itsagrandplacetobe (5/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -49%
Other contenders:1Schubert Sonata (6/1) 15% · fair 6-1, 2Third Bite (6/1) 14% · fair 6-1
Rest of field:5Prayed Up (5/1) 14% · fair 6-1
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

My Pretty Boy — 20.0% win probability, morning line 4/1My Pretty Boy20.0% ◀Vital — 20.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Vital20.0%Itsagrandplacetobe — 16.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Itsagrandplacetobe16.9%Schubert Sonata — 14.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Schubert Sonata14.6%Third Bite — 14.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Third Bite14.4%Prayed Up — 14.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Prayed Up14.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
My Pretty Boy20.0%4/1
Vital20.0%3/1
Itsagrandplacetobe16.9%2.5/1
Schubert Sonata14.6%6/1
Third Bite14.4%6/1
Prayed Up14.1%5/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMy Pretty Boy: model 20.0% vs market 16.8% (+3.2 points)My Pretty Boy+3.2Vital: model 20.0% vs market 21.0% (-1.1 points)Vital-1.1Itsagrandplacetobe: model 16.9% vs market 24.0% (-7.1 points)Itsagrandplacetobe-7.1Schubert Sonata: model 14.6% vs market 12.0% (+2.6 points)Schubert Sonata+2.6Third Bite: model 14.4% vs market 12.0% (+2.4 points)Third Bite+2.4Prayed Up: model 14.1% vs market 14.0% (+0.0 points)Prayed Up+0.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
My Pretty Boy20.0%16.8%+3.2
Vital20.0%21.0%-1.1
Itsagrandplacetobe16.9%24.0%-7.1
Schubert Sonata14.6%12.0%+2.6
Third Bite14.4%12.0%+2.4
Prayed Up14.1%14.0%+0.0
🌧️ Off-track: 346512
🎯 Longshots: 635412
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $60,000
Win:3Yourownspecialway (2/1) 38% · fair 3-2
Place:7Peaches N Dreams (5/1) 19% · fair 9-2
Show:2Holy Ground (5/1) 14% · fair 6-1
Other contenders:5Mommy Makeover (4/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -36%, 8First Blush (6/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -51%, 6Minxzmajestkmystic (8/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -67%
Rest of field:1Arrestingly (12/1) 2% · fair 97-2 underlay -75%, 4Emily Sloan (15/1) 1% · fair 100-1 underlay -85%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Yourownspecialway — 38.3% win probability, morning line 2/1Yourownspecialway38.3% ◀Peaches N Dreams — 18.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Peaches N Dreams18.9%Holy Ground — 14.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Holy Ground14.4%Mommy Makeover — 13.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Mommy Makeover13.8%First Blush — 7.6% win probability, morning line 6/1First Blush7.6%Minxzmajestkmystic — 4.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Minxzmajestkmystic4.0%Arrestingly — 2.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Arrestingly2.0%Emily Sloan — 1.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Emily Sloan1.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Yourownspecialway38.3%2/1
Peaches N Dreams18.9%5/1
Holy Ground14.4%5/1
Mommy Makeover13.8%4/1
First Blush7.6%6/1
Minxzmajestkmystic4.0%8/1
Arrestingly2.0%12/1
Emily Sloan1.0%15/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherYourownspecialway: model 38.3% vs market 26.5% (+11.9 points)Yourownspecialway+11.9Peaches N Dreams: model 18.9% vs market 13.2% (+5.7 points)Peaches N Dreams+5.7Holy Ground: model 14.4% vs market 13.2% (+1.2 points)Holy Ground+1.2Mommy Makeover: model 13.8% vs market 15.9% (-2.1 points)Mommy Makeover-2.1First Blush: model 7.6% vs market 11.3% (-3.8 points)First Blush-3.8Minxzmajestkmystic: model 4.0% vs market 8.8% (-4.8 points)Minxzmajestkmystic-4.8Arrestingly: model 2.0% vs market 6.1% (-4.1 points)Arrestingly-4.1Emily Sloan: model 1.0% vs market 5.0% (-4.0 points)Emily Sloan-4.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Yourownspecialway38.3%26.5%+11.9
Peaches N Dreams18.9%13.2%+5.7
Holy Ground14.4%13.2%+1.2
Mommy Makeover13.8%15.9%-2.1
First Blush7.6%11.3%-3.8
Minxzmajestkmystic4.0%8.8%-4.8
Arrestingly2.0%6.1%-4.1
Emily Sloan1.0%5.0%-4.0
🌧️ Off-track: 375286
🎯 Longshots: 32756814
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:8Blame Eve (3/1) 34% · fair 2-1 overlay +53%
Place:7Shes The Tall One (9/5) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -40%
Show:3Noble Annie (2/1) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -60%
Other contenders:2Ranting And Raving (5/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -25%, 1Catrina Zar (15/1) 5% · fair 35-2, 4Eleanor Rigby (15/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -37%
Rest of field:5Keystormrising (20/1) 1% · fair 71-1 underlay -72%, 6Nouveau Riche (20/1) 1% · fair 149-1 underlay -87%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Blame Eve — 33.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Blame Eve33.8% ◀Shes The Tall One — 24.9% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Shes The Tall One24.9%Noble Annie — 16.8% win probability, morning line 2/1Noble Annie16.8%Ranting And Raving — 13.0% win probability, morning line 5/1Ranting And Raving13.0%Catrina Zar — 5.4% win probability, morning line 15/1Catrina Zar5.4%Eleanor Rigby — 4.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Eleanor Rigby4.0%Keystormrising — 1.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Keystormrising1.4%Nouveau Riche — 0.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Nouveau Riche0.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Blame Eve33.8%3/1
Shes The Tall One24.9%1.8/1
Noble Annie16.8%2/1
Ranting And Raving13.0%5/1
Catrina Zar5.4%15/1
Eleanor Rigby4.0%15/1
Keystormrising1.4%20/1
Nouveau Riche0.7%20/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBlame Eve: model 33.8% vs market 18.8% (+15.0 points)Blame Eve+15.0Shes The Tall One: model 24.9% vs market 26.9% (-2.0 points)Shes The Tall One-2.0Noble Annie: model 16.8% vs market 25.1% (-8.3 points)Noble Annie-8.3Ranting And Raving: model 13.0% vs market 12.6% (+0.5 points)Ranting And Raving+0.5Catrina Zar: model 5.4% vs market 4.7% (+0.7 points)Catrina Zar+0.7Eleanor Rigby: model 4.0% vs market 4.7% (-0.7 points)Eleanor Rigby-0.7Keystormrising: model 1.4% vs market 3.6% (-2.2 points)Keystormrising-2.2Nouveau Riche: model 0.7% vs market 3.6% (-2.9 points)Nouveau Riche-2.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Blame Eve33.8%18.8%+15.0
Shes The Tall One24.9%26.9%-2.0
Noble Annie16.8%25.1%-8.3
Ranting And Raving13.0%12.6%+0.5
Catrina Zar5.4%4.7%+0.7
Eleanor Rigby4.0%4.7%-0.7
Keystormrising1.4%3.6%-2.2
Nouveau Riche0.7%3.6%-2.9
🌧️ Off-track: 873214
🎯 Longshots: 87321456
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $60,000
Win:3Chef Sparrow (9/5) 36% · fair 2-1
Place:5Cannonbury (3/1) 21% · fair 7-2
Show:2Sixty Six Books (5/1) 19% · fair 9-2
Other contenders:6Penniless Pauly (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -34%, 4Snipe Hunt (4/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -61%
Rest of field:1Kpnupwiththejones (12/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -33%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Chef Sparrow — 35.7% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Chef Sparrow35.7% ◀Cannonbury — 21.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Cannonbury21.3%Sixty Six Books — 18.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Sixty Six Books18.8%Penniless Pauly — 9.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Penniless Pauly9.9%Snipe Hunt — 8.9% win probability, morning line 4/1Snipe Hunt8.9%Kpnupwiththejones — 5.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Kpnupwiththejones5.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Chef Sparrow35.7%1.8/1
Cannonbury21.3%3/1
Sixty Six Books18.8%5/1
Penniless Pauly9.9%6/1
Snipe Hunt8.9%4/1
Kpnupwiththejones5.3%12/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherChef Sparrow: model 35.7% vs market 29.9% (+5.8 points)Chef Sparrow+5.8Cannonbury: model 21.3% vs market 20.9% (+0.3 points)Cannonbury+0.3Sixty Six Books: model 18.8% vs market 14.0% (+4.9 points)Sixty Six Books+4.9Penniless Pauly: model 9.9% vs market 12.0% (-2.0 points)Penniless Pauly-2.0Snipe Hunt: model 8.9% vs market 16.8% (-7.8 points)Snipe Hunt-7.8Kpnupwiththejones: model 5.3% vs market 6.4% (-1.1 points)Kpnupwiththejones-1.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Chef Sparrow35.7%29.9%+5.8
Cannonbury21.3%20.9%+0.3
Sixty Six Books18.8%14.0%+4.9
Penniless Pauly9.9%12.0%-2.0
Snipe Hunt8.9%16.8%-7.8
Kpnupwiththejones5.3%6.4%-1.1
🌧️ Off-track: 352461
🎯 Longshots: 324561
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $50,000
Win:4Welovemollynteddy (2/1) 51% · fair 5-5 overlay +108%
Place:3Flying Free (4/1) 19% · fair 9-2
Show:8Hay Hay Renee (5/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -51%
Other contenders:2Miss Ma'am (6/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -52%, 7Funny Music (8/1) 5% · fair 41-2 underlay -61%, 6Olympic Dreamer (8/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -70%
Rest of field:5No One Else's (6/1) 4% · fair 53-2 underlay -77%, 1Ginster (12/1) 2% · fair 107-2 underlay -78%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Welovemollynteddy — 50.9% win probability, morning line 2/1Welovemollynteddy50.9% ◀Flying Free — 19.0% win probability, morning line 4/1Flying Free19.0%Hay Hay Renee — 8.9% win probability, morning line 5/1Hay Hay Renee8.9%Miss Ma'Am — 7.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Miss Ma'Am7.4%Funny Music — 4.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Funny Music4.7%Olympic Dreamer — 3.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Olympic Dreamer3.6%No One Else'S — 3.6% win probability, morning line 6/1No One Else'S3.6%Ginster — 1.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Ginster1.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Welovemollynteddy50.9%2/1
Flying Free19.0%4/1
Hay Hay Renee8.9%5/1
Miss Ma'Am7.4%6/1
Funny Music4.7%8/1
Olympic Dreamer3.6%8/1
No One Else'S3.6%6/1
Ginster1.8%12/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherWelovemollynteddy: model 50.9% vs market 25.9% (+25.0 points)Welovemollynteddy+25.0Flying Free: model 19.0% vs market 15.6% (+3.4 points)Flying Free+3.4Hay Hay Renee: model 8.9% vs market 13.0% (-4.1 points)Hay Hay Renee-4.1Miss Ma'Am: model 7.4% vs market 11.1% (-3.7 points)Miss Ma'Am-3.7Funny Music: model 4.7% vs market 8.6% (-3.9 points)Funny Music-3.9Olympic Dreamer: model 3.6% vs market 8.6% (-5.0 points)Olympic Dreamer-5.0No One Else'S: model 3.6% vs market 11.1% (-7.5 points)No One Else'S-7.5Ginster: model 1.8% vs market 6.0% (-4.2 points)Ginster-4.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Welovemollynteddy50.9%25.9%+25.0
Flying Free19.0%15.6%+3.4
Hay Hay Renee8.9%13.0%-4.1
Miss Ma'Am7.4%11.1%-3.7
Funny Music4.7%8.6%-3.9
Olympic Dreamer3.6%8.6%-5.0
No One Else'S3.6%11.1%-7.5
Ginster1.8%6.0%-4.2
🌧️ Off-track: 438257
🎯 Longshots: 46382175
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #8, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:1Miss Anna Bella (7/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Place:4Endless Glow (9/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -32%
Show:9Tap And A Hug (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:6Twist Her (4/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -47%, 3California Smoke (5/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -35%, 10Noulikeabook (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -34%
Rest of field:8No Mo Muffins (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -28%, 7Silver City Kitty (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -36%, 2Flaming Eyes (8/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -51%, 5Sweet Distraction (12/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -58%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Miss Anna Bella — 18.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Miss Anna Bella18.5% ◀Endless Glow — 13.2% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Endless Glow13.2%Tap And A Hug — 11.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Tap And A Hug11.8%Twist Her — 11.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Twist Her11.8%California Smoke — 11.6% win probability, morning line 5/1California Smoke11.6%Noulikeabook — 9.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Noulikeabook9.9%No Mo Muffins — 8.2% win probability, morning line 8/1No Mo Muffins8.2%Silver City Kitty — 6.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Silver City Kitty6.0%Flaming Eyes — 5.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Flaming Eyes5.7%Sweet Distraction — 3.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Sweet Distraction3.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Miss Anna Bella18.5%3.5/1
Endless Glow13.2%4.5/1
Tap And A Hug11.8%6/1
Twist Her11.8%4/1
California Smoke11.6%5/1
Noulikeabook9.9%6/1
No Mo Muffins8.2%8/1
Silver City Kitty6.0%10/1
Flaming Eyes5.7%8/1
Sweet Distraction3.3%12/1
🌧️ Off-track: 1463910
🎯 Longshots: 18274536109
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #9, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $60,000
Win:4Vandalism (7/2)
Place:1Tengo Esperanza (5/1)
Show:3Warrior's Finale (5/2)
Other contenders:5Honeysmakemoney (4/1), 2Gypsy Lane (5/1)
Rest of field:7Brandenburg Gate (8/1), 6So Noble (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 341527
🎯 Longshots: 3451276
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:4Cojelo Pa Ti (2/1)
Place:1Lex (4/1)
Show:5Cassation (5/1)
Other contenders:6Carnaby (3/1), 2Hey Buddy (5/1)
Rest of field:3Float On (9/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 416523
🎯 Longshots: 416523
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:6My Last Mission (6/5)
Place:5Riley's Rockstar (9/2)
Show:2Admiral's Wave (7/2)
Other contenders:4He's Got Swagger (5/1), 1Lunar Rocket (10/1)
Rest of field:3Union Purrfection (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 625413
🎯 Longshots: 612543
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $32,000
Win:5Prayed Up (5/1)
Place:6Itsagrandplacetobe (5/2)
Show:3Vital (3/1)
Other contenders:2Third Bite (6/1), 4My Pretty Boy (4/1)
Rest of field:1Schubert Sonata (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 635421
🎯 Longshots: 635412
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $60,000
Win:3Yourownspecialway (2/1)
Place:5Mommy Makeover (4/1)
Show:7Peaches N Dreams (5/1)
Other contenders:2Holy Ground (5/1), 8First Blush (6/1), 6Minxzmajestkmystic (8/1)
Rest of field:1Arrestingly (12/1), 4Emily Sloan (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 357286
🎯 Longshots: 32756814
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:8Blame Eve (3/1)
Place:7Shes The Tall One (9/5)
Show:2Ranting And Raving (5/1)
Other contenders:3Noble Annie (2/1), 4Eleanor Rigby (15/1), 1Catrina Zar (15/1)
Rest of field:6Nouveau Riche (20/1), 5Keystormrising (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 738241
🎯 Longshots: 87321456
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $60,000
Win:3Chef Sparrow (9/5)
Place:5Cannonbury (3/1)
Show:2Sixty Six Books (5/1)
Other contenders:4Snipe Hunt (4/1), 6Penniless Pauly (6/1)
Rest of field:1Kpnupwiththejones (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 354261
🎯 Longshots: 324561
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $50,000
Win:4Welovemollynteddy (2/1)
Place:3Flying Free (4/1)
Show:2Miss Ma'am (6/1)
Other contenders:6Olympic Dreamer (8/1), 8Hay Hay Renee (5/1), 5No One Else's (6/1)
Rest of field:7Funny Music (8/1), 1Ginster (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 438265
🎯 Longshots: 46382175
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:1Miss Anna Bella (7/2)
Place:4Endless Glow (9/2)
Show:8No Mo Muffins (8/1)
Other contenders:9Tap And A Hug (6/1), 6Twist Her (4/1), 3California Smoke (5/1)
Rest of field:2Flaming Eyes (8/1), 10Noulikeabook (6/1), 7Silver City Kitty (10/1), 5Sweet Distraction (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1469310
🎯 Longshots: 18274536109
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #8, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #1, #3, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #4 over #1 ($1 straight; box #4-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #1, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #6 over #2 ($1 straight; box #6-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #2, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
Race 4AI Exacta: #6 over #3 ($1 straight; box #6-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #6, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #3 over #2 ($1 straight; box #3-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #7, #5, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #7 over #8 ($1 straight; box #7-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #8, #3, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #3 over #2 ($1 straight; box #3-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #5, #6, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #4 over #3 ($1 straight; box #4-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #3, #2, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #4, #8, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $60,000
Win:3Warrior's Finale (5/2)
Place:1Tengo Esperanza (5/1)
Show:4Vandalism (7/2)
Other contenders:2Gypsy Lane (5/1), 5Honeysmakemoney (4/1)
Rest of field:7Brandenburg Gate (8/1), 6So Noble (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 341527
🎯 Longshots: 3451276
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:4Cojelo Pa Ti (2/1)
Place:1Lex (4/1)
Show:5Cassation (5/1)
Other contenders:6Carnaby (3/1), 2Hey Buddy (5/1)
Rest of field:3Float On (9/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 416523
🎯 Longshots: 416523
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:6My Last Mission (6/5)
Place:5Riley's Rockstar (9/2)
Show:2Admiral's Wave (7/2)
Other contenders:4He's Got Swagger (5/1), 1Lunar Rocket (10/1)
Rest of field:3Union Purrfection (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 625413
🎯 Longshots: 612543
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #5, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $32,000
Win:3Vital (3/1)
Place:5Prayed Up (5/1)
Show:6Itsagrandplacetobe (5/2)
Other contenders:4My Pretty Boy (4/1), 2Third Bite (6/1)
Rest of field:1Schubert Sonata (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 365421
🎯 Longshots: 635412
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $60,000
Win:3Yourownspecialway (2/1)
Place:5Mommy Makeover (4/1)
Show:2Holy Ground (5/1)
Other contenders:7Peaches N Dreams (5/1), 8First Blush (6/1), 6Minxzmajestkmystic (8/1)
Rest of field:1Arrestingly (12/1), 4Emily Sloan (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 352786
🎯 Longshots: 32756814
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:8Blame Eve (3/1)
Place:7Shes The Tall One (9/5)
Show:2Ranting And Raving (5/1)
Other contenders:3Noble Annie (2/1), 1Catrina Zar (15/1), 4Eleanor Rigby (15/1)
Rest of field:6Nouveau Riche (20/1), 5Keystormrising (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 783214
🎯 Longshots: 87321456
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $60,000
Win:3Chef Sparrow (9/5)
Place:2Sixty Six Books (5/1)
Show:5Cannonbury (3/1)
Other contenders:4Snipe Hunt (4/1), 6Penniless Pauly (6/1)
Rest of field:1Kpnupwiththejones (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 352461
🎯 Longshots: 324561
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $50,000
Win:4Welovemollynteddy (2/1)
Place:3Flying Free (4/1)
Show:2Miss Ma'am (6/1)
Other contenders:8Hay Hay Renee (5/1), 5No One Else's (6/1), 6Olympic Dreamer (8/1)
Rest of field:7Funny Music (8/1), 1Ginster (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 438256
🎯 Longshots: 46382175
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #2, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:1Miss Anna Bella (7/2)
Place:7Silver City Kitty (10/1)
Show:4Endless Glow (9/2)
Other contenders:2Flaming Eyes (8/1), 3California Smoke (5/1), 9Tap And A Hug (6/1)
Rest of field:8No Mo Muffins (8/1), 10Noulikeabook (6/1), 6Twist Her (4/1), 5Sweet Distraction (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 146379
🎯 Longshots: 18274536109
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $60,000
Win:4Vandalism (7/2)
Place:1Tengo Esperanza (5/1)
Show:3Warrior's Finale (5/2)
Other contenders:5Honeysmakemoney (4/1), 2Gypsy Lane (5/1)
Rest of field:7Brandenburg Gate (8/1), 6So Noble (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 431527
🎯 Longshots: 3451276
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:4Cojelo Pa Ti (2/1)
Place:1Lex (4/1)
Show:5Cassation (5/1)
Other contenders:6Carnaby (3/1), 2Hey Buddy (5/1)
Rest of field:3Float On (9/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 416523
🎯 Longshots: 416523
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:6My Last Mission (6/5)
Place:2Admiral's Wave (7/2)
Show:5Riley's Rockstar (9/2)
Other contenders:1Lunar Rocket (10/1), 4He's Got Swagger (5/1)
Rest of field:3Union Purrfection (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 625413
🎯 Longshots: 612543
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $32,000
Win:5Prayed Up (5/1)
Place:6Itsagrandplacetobe (5/2)
Show:2Third Bite (6/1)
Other contenders:3Vital (3/1), 1Schubert Sonata (6/1)
Rest of field:4My Pretty Boy (4/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 653241
🎯 Longshots: 635412
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $60,000
Win:3Yourownspecialway (2/1)
Place:7Peaches N Dreams (5/1)
Show:5Mommy Makeover (4/1)
Other contenders:8First Blush (6/1), 2Holy Ground (5/1), 6Minxzmajestkmystic (8/1)
Rest of field:1Arrestingly (12/1), 4Emily Sloan (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 357286
🎯 Longshots: 32756814
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:7Shes The Tall One (9/5)
Place:8Blame Eve (3/1)
Show:3Noble Annie (2/1)
Other contenders:2Ranting And Raving (5/1), 4Eleanor Rigby (15/1), 1Catrina Zar (15/1)
Rest of field:6Nouveau Riche (20/1), 5Keystormrising (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 738241
🎯 Longshots: 87321456
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #8, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $60,000
Win:3Chef Sparrow (9/5)
Place:5Cannonbury (3/1)
Show:6Penniless Pauly (6/1)
Other contenders:2Sixty Six Books (5/1), 4Snipe Hunt (4/1)
Rest of field:1Kpnupwiththejones (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 352461
🎯 Longshots: 324561
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #6, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $50,000
Win:4Welovemollynteddy (2/1)
Place:3Flying Free (4/1)
Show:2Miss Ma'am (6/1)
Other contenders:8Hay Hay Renee (5/1), 6Olympic Dreamer (8/1), 5No One Else's (6/1)
Rest of field:7Funny Music (8/1), 1Ginster (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 438256
🎯 Longshots: 46382175
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #2, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:1Miss Anna Bella (7/2)
Place:4Endless Glow (9/2)
Show:8No Mo Muffins (8/1)
Other contenders:6Twist Her (4/1), 9Tap And A Hug (6/1), 10Noulikeabook (6/1)
Rest of field:3California Smoke (5/1), 7Silver City Kitty (10/1), 2Flaming Eyes (8/1), 5Sweet Distraction (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1463910
🎯 Longshots: 18274536109
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #8, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets – Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #3,#4,#1 (64%) / R2: #1,#4,#5 (67%) / R3: #6,#2 (67%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 28%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #6,#2 (67%) / R4: #4,#3,#6 (57%) / R5: #3,#7,#2 (72%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #3,#7,#2 (72%) / R6: #8,#7,#3 (76%) / R7: #3,#5,#2 (76%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 41%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #8,#7,#3 (76%) / R7: #3,#5,#2 (76%) / R8: #4,#3 (70%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 40%
Pick 4 R3-6R3: #6,#2 (67%) / R4: #4,#3,#6 (57%) / R5: #3,#7,#2 (72%) / R6: #8,#7,#3 (76%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 20%
Pick 4 R5-8R5: #3,#7,#2 (72%) / R6: #8,#7,#3 (76%) / R7: #3,#5,#2 (76%) / R8: #4,#3 (70%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29%
Index – Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ADMIRAL'S WAVEARRESTINGLYBLAME EVEBRANDENBURG GATECALIFORNIA SMOKE
CARNABYCASSATIONCATRINA ZARCHEF SPARROWCOJELO PA TI
EMILY SLOANENDLESS GLOWFIRST BLUSHFLAMING EYESFLOAT ON
FUNNY MUSICGINSTERGYPSY LANEHAY HAY RENEEHE'S GOT SWAGGER
HOLY GROUNDHONEYSMAKEMONEYITSAGRANDPLACETOBEKEYSTORMRISINGKPNUPWITHTHEJONES
LUNAR ROCKETMINXZMAJESTKMYSTICMISS ANNA BELLAMISS MA'AMMOMMY MAKEOVER
MY PRETTY BOYNO MO MUFFINSNO ONE ELSE'SNOBLE ANNIENOULIKEABOOK
OLYMPIC DREAMERPEACHES N DREAMSPENNILESS PAULYPRAYED UPRANTING AND RAVING
SCHUBERT SONATASHES THE TALL ONESILVER CITY KITTYSIXTY SIX BOOKSSNIPE HUNT
SWEET DISTRACTIONTAP AND A HUGTENGO ESPERANZATHIRD BITETWIST HER
VANDALISMVITALWARRIOR'S FINALEWELOVEMOLLYNTEDDYYOUROWNSPECIALWAY

 


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