Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Penn National, August 14, 2026


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Algo Picks – Algo 1
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:7 – Jean Valjean (4/1)
Place:8 – Fierce And Strong (5/2)
Show:4 – Fore Harp (4/1)
Other contenders:6 – Talented Man (6/1), 1 – Kalahari Not Sorry (12/1), 11 – Fletcher (15/1), 3 – Flamingo Way (4/1)
Rest of field:9 – Uncle Dar (8/1), 10 – Cold Feet (6/1), 5 – Kiss Them Deadly (15/1), 2 – Showtime Matinee (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-3-1-9-5-6
🎯 Longshots: 8-5-11-9-4-2-7-3-1-6-10
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:5 – Classic Nofty (4/1)
Place:8 – Jes See Me (5/2)
Show:1 – Red Zone Runner (5/1)
Other contenders:3 – Mailata (6/1), 7 – Mister Me (5/1), 2 – Ramses The Great (6/1)
Rest of field:6 – Guitar Money (10/1), 9 – Resolute (8/1), 4 – Fly In The Mystic (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-2-5-3-7-8
🎯 Longshots: 8-6-5-9-7-3-1-4-2
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $150,000
Win:4 – Idratherbeblessed (4/1)
Place:2 – Bartlett (2/1)
Show:5 – Spellcast (5/1)
Other contenders:7 – Air Recruit (3/1), 1 – Versus (6/1)
Rest of field:3 – Crisper (8/1), 6 – Mister Woodford (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6-4-5-7-1-3
🎯 Longshots: 2-3-7-5-1-4-6
 
Race 4  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:1 – Coach Kriv (3/1)
Place:2 – Tims (2/1)
Show:4 – If I Can Dream (7/2)
Other contenders:6 – Housebuster Dude (6/1), 5 – Showmance (5/1)
Rest of field:3 – Coach Rudy (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 6-4-3-2-1-5
🎯 Longshots: 1-2-4-3-6-5
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:1 – Sippnsummerspirits (6/1)
Place:2 – Katischuo (5/1)
Show:3 – Associated (7/2)
Other contenders:4 – Highway Patrol (5/2), 5 – Walkers Beach (9/2)
Rest of field:6 – Suyay (5/1), 7 – Coach Michael (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-2-1-6-7
🎯 Longshots: 4-7-3-5-6-2-1
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:6 – Calisa (2/1)
Place:2 – Tap And A Hug (3/1)
Show:3 – Bramwell (4/1)
Other contenders:4 – Desperate Dreams (5/1), 1 – Lilbitsocial (6/1)
Rest of field:7 – Alyvia's Lil Girl (10/1), 5 – Red Betty (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-3-7-1-5
🎯 Longshots: 6-2-3-7-4-1-5
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $27,000
Win:2 – Band Camp (5/2)
Place:1 – Heard On Thestreet (5/2)
Show:5 – Bermuda Run (9/2)
Other contenders:3 – Five Dreams (4/1), 6 – Capo (5/1)
Rest of field:4 – Artillery Gunnar (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-1-5-3-6-4
🎯 Longshots: 2-1-5-3-4-6
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · HR · Purse $16,000
Win:3 – Chaina (2/1)
Place:2 – Eclair Blanc (5/2)
Show:1 – Qualified Hire (5/1)
Other contenders:4 – My Sugar Boo (9/2), 5 – Disco Flash (5/1)
Rest of field:6 – Skip Thru Da Fire (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-2-1-4-6
🎯 Longshots: 3-2-6-1-4-5
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $16,000
Win:3 – All Fun N Games (5/2)
Place:8 – Endless Glow (4/1)
Show:5 – I'mamaterialgirl (6/1)
Other contenders:7 – Shiva Parvati (8/1), 6 – She's Bankable (10/1), 2 – Rosesforthequeen (8/1)
Rest of field:9 – Eastwood Mania (6/1), 4 – Eddie's Promise (10/1), 1 – Hedera (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3-8-5-7-6-2
🎯 Longshots: 2-8-3-7-5-6-9-4-1
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
Algo Picks – Algo 2
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:8 – Fierce And Strong (5/2)
Place:1 – Kalahari Not Sorry (12/1)
Show:7 – Jean Valjean (4/1)
Other contenders:10 – Cold Feet (6/1), 4 – Fore Harp (4/1), 6 – Talented Man (6/1), 11 – Fletcher (15/1)
Rest of field:9 – Uncle Dar (8/1), 3 – Flamingo Way (4/1), 2 – Showtime Matinee (10/1), 5 – Kiss Them Deadly (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-1-3-9-8-10
🎯 Longshots: 8-5-11-9-4-2-7-3-1-6-10
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:5 – Classic Nofty (4/1)
Place:8 – Jes See Me (5/2)
Show:3 – Mailata (6/1)
Other contenders:7 – Mister Me (5/1), 1 – Red Zone Runner (5/1), 9 – Resolute (8/1)
Rest of field:2 – Ramses The Great (6/1), 6 – Guitar Money (10/1), 4 – Fly In The Mystic (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-5-2-3-8-7
🎯 Longshots: 8-6-5-9-7-3-1-4-2
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $150,000
Win:4 – Idratherbeblessed (4/1)
Place:2 – Bartlett (2/1)
Show:7 – Air Recruit (3/1)
Other contenders:5 – Spellcast (5/1), 1 – Versus (6/1)
Rest of field:3 – Crisper (8/1), 6 – Mister Woodford (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-7-5-6-2-1
🎯 Longshots: 2-3-7-5-1-4-6
 
Race 4  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:4 – If I Can Dream (7/2)
Place:2 – Tims (2/1)
Show:1 – Coach Kriv (3/1)
Other contenders:6 – Housebuster Dude (6/1), 5 – Showmance (5/1)
Rest of field:3 – Coach Rudy (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-2-3-1-5
🎯 Longshots: 1-2-4-3-6-5
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:1 – Sippnsummerspirits (6/1)
Place:2 – Katischuo (5/1)
Show:3 – Associated (7/2)
Other contenders:4 – Highway Patrol (5/2), 5 – Walkers Beach (9/2)
Rest of field:6 – Suyay (5/1), 7 – Coach Michael (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-2-1-6-7
🎯 Longshots: 4-7-3-5-6-2-1
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:6 – Calisa (2/1)
Place:2 – Tap And A Hug (3/1)
Show:7 – Alyvia's Lil Girl (10/1)
Other contenders:4 – Desperate Dreams (5/1), 3 – Bramwell (4/1)
Rest of field:1 – Lilbitsocial (6/1), 5 – Red Betty (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-7-3-1-4
🎯 Longshots: 6-2-3-7-4-1-5
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $27,000
Win:2 – Band Camp (5/2)
Place:5 – Bermuda Run (9/2)
Show:6 – Capo (5/1)
Other contenders:3 – Five Dreams (4/1), 1 – Heard On Thestreet (5/2)
Rest of field:4 – Artillery Gunnar (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-5-6-1-4-3
🎯 Longshots: 2-1-5-3-4-6
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · HR · Purse $16,000
Win:2 – Eclair Blanc (5/2)
Place:3 – Chaina (2/1)
Show:1 – Qualified Hire (5/1)
Other contenders:4 – My Sugar Boo (9/2), 6 – Skip Thru Da Fire (8/1)
Rest of field:5 – Disco Flash (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-2-1-4-6
🎯 Longshots: 3-2-6-1-4-5
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $16,000
Win:8 – Endless Glow (4/1)
Place:3 – All Fun N Games (5/2)
Show:5 – I'mamaterialgirl (6/1)
Other contenders:9 – Eastwood Mania (6/1), 6 – She's Bankable (10/1), 4 – Eddie's Promise (10/1)
Rest of field:7 – Shiva Parvati (8/1), 2 – Rosesforthequeen (8/1), 1 – Hedera (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3-8-5-9-7-6
🎯 Longshots: 2-8-3-7-5-6-9-4-1
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Algo Picks – Algo 3
 
Race 1  5 Furlongs · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:8 – Fierce And Strong (5/2)
Place:1 – Kalahari Not Sorry (12/1)
Show:7 – Jean Valjean (4/1)
Other contenders:10 – Cold Feet (6/1), 4 – Fore Harp (4/1), 3 – Flamingo Way (4/1), 6 – Talented Man (6/1)
Rest of field:9 – Uncle Dar (8/1), 11 – Fletcher (15/1), 2 – Showtime Matinee (10/1), 5 – Kiss Them Deadly (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 7-1-3-9-8-10
🎯 Longshots: 8-5-11-9-4-2-7-3-1-6-10
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #1, #7, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $75,000
Win:5 – Classic Nofty (4/1)
Place:8 – Jes See Me (5/2)
Show:1 – Red Zone Runner (5/1)
Other contenders:3 – Mailata (6/1), 7 – Mister Me (5/1), 2 – Ramses The Great (6/1)
Rest of field:9 – Resolute (8/1), 6 – Guitar Money (10/1), 4 – Fly In The Mystic (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1-5-2-3-8-7
🎯 Longshots: 8-6-5-9-7-3-1-4-2
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #8, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $150,000
Win:4 – Idratherbeblessed (4/1)
Place:7 – Air Recruit (3/1)
Show:2 – Bartlett (2/1)
Other contenders:5 – Spellcast (5/1), 1 – Versus (6/1)
Rest of field:3 – Crisper (8/1), 6 – Mister Woodford (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-7-5-6-2-1
🎯 Longshots: 2-3-7-5-1-4-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $21,000
Win:4 – If I Can Dream (7/2)
Place:1 – Coach Kriv (3/1)
Show:2 – Tims (2/1)
Other contenders:6 – Housebuster Dude (6/1), 5 – Showmance (5/1)
Rest of field:3 – Coach Rudy (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4-2-6-3-1-5
🎯 Longshots: 1-2-4-3-6-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:1 – Sippnsummerspirits (6/1)
Place:2 – Katischuo (5/1)
Show:3 – Associated (7/2)
Other contenders:4 – Highway Patrol (5/2), 5 – Walkers Beach (9/2)
Rest of field:6 – Suyay (5/1), 7 – Coach Michael (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-2-1-6-7
🎯 Longshots: 4-7-3-5-6-2-1
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:6 – Calisa (2/1)
Place:2 – Tap And A Hug (3/1)
Show:4 – Desperate Dreams (5/1)
Other contenders:7 – Alyvia's Lil Girl (10/1), 3 – Bramwell (4/1)
Rest of field:1 – Lilbitsocial (6/1), 5 – Red Betty (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-6-7-3-1-4
🎯 Longshots: 6-2-3-7-4-1-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $27,000
Win:2 – Band Camp (5/2)
Place:5 – Bermuda Run (9/2)
Show:6 – Capo (5/1)
Other contenders:3 – Five Dreams (4/1), 1 – Heard On Thestreet (5/2)
Rest of field:4 – Artillery Gunnar (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2-5-6-1-4-3
🎯 Longshots: 2-1-5-3-4-6
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · HR · Purse $16,000
Win:2 – Eclair Blanc (5/2)
Place:3 – Chaina (2/1)
Show:1 – Qualified Hire (5/1)
Other contenders:4 – My Sugar Boo (9/2), 6 – Skip Thru Da Fire (8/1)
Rest of field:5 – Disco Flash (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 5-3-2-1-4-6
🎯 Longshots: 3-2-6-1-4-5
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $16,000
Win:8 – Endless Glow (4/1)
Place:3 – All Fun N Games (5/2)
Show:5 – I'mamaterialgirl (6/1)
Other contenders:9 – Eastwood Mania (6/1), 6 – She's Bankable (10/1), 4 – Eddie's Promise (10/1)
Rest of field:7 – Shiva Parvati (8/1), 2 – Rosesforthequeen (8/1), 1 – Hedera (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 3-8-5-9-6-7
🎯 Longshots: 2-8-3-7-5-6-9-4-1
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #5, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settings
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 1, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 13, Mid Pace: 99, Late Pace: 48, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 1, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 37, Medications: 95, Weather: 16, Race Trouble: 82, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 1, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Kelly Edge Plays
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: multidim)    Morning-line reliability: +0.33 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.80 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)
RaceHorseMLP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $ bankroll
67 – Alyvia'S Lil Girl10/116.8%+60.4%1.51%$1.51
96 – She'S Bankable10/116.8%+60.4%1.51%$1.51
57 – Coach Michael10/116.3%+56.6%1.42%$1.42
94 – Eddie'S Promise10/116.3%+56.6%1.42%$1.42
11 – Kalahari Not Sorry12/112.5%+44.1%0.92%$0.92
TOTAL across 5 plays:6.8%$6.77
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
Index - Horses Running In This Card
AIR RECRUITALL FUN N GAMESALYVIA'S LIL GIRLARTILLERY GUNNARASSOCIATED
BARTLETTBERMUDA RUNBRAMWELLCALISACAPO
CLASSIC NOFTYCOACH KRIVCOACH MICHAELCOACH RUDYCOLD FEET
DESPERATE DREAMSDISCO FLASHEASTWOOD MANIAECLAIR BLANCEDDIE'S PROMISE
FIERCE AND STRONGFIVE DREAMSFLAMINGO WAYFLETCHERFLY IN THE MYSTIC
GUITAR MONEYHEARD ON THESTREETHEDERAHIGHWAY PATROLHOUSEBUSTER DUDE
IDRATHERBEBLESSEDIF I CAN DREAMJEAN VALJEANJES SEE MEKALAHARI NOT SORRY
KISS THEM DEADLYLILBITSOCIALMAILATAMISTER MEMISTER WOODFORD
QUALIFIED HIRERAMSES THE GREATRED BETTYRED ZONE RUNNERRESOLUTE
SHE'S BANKABLESHIVA PARVATISHOWMANCESHOWTIME MATINEESIPPNSUMMERSPIRITS
SPELLCASTSUYAYTALENTED MANTAP AND A HUGTIMS
VERSUSWALKERS BEACH

 


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