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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Penn National, November 11, 2026

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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Penn National — in-the-money rate

How often the pick finished first, second or third — not how often it won. 143 graded races at Penn National, 2026-08-18 to 2026-11-06.

0%23%47%70%94%Our top pick: 74.8% from 143 racesOur top pick74.8%Morning-line favourite: 69.9% from 143 racesMorning-line favourite69.9%

In-the-money rate, same races for both. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick74.8%143
Morning-line favourite69.9%143
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Mysterioso (2/1)
Place:3Hands Up Style (4/1)
Show:4Sense Of Wonder (3/1)
Other contenders:1Rebellution (8/1), 2Charm And Thunder (6/1)
Rest of field:6Eclipticals Empire (4/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 543216
🎯 Longshots: 514362
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Beau Hill (9/5)
Place:2Holy Fit (5/2)
Show:5Landofhopeandreams (7/2)
Other contenders:3I'mamaterialgirl (5/1), 4Secret Oaks (9/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 12543
🎯 Longshots: 12534
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Thirteen G's (4/1)
Place:4Fratellone (2/1)
Show:5Fairfield Bay (3/1)
Other contenders:6Neptune Beach (6/1), 2Birravino Blvd (8/1)
Rest of field:7Atomico (8/1), 3Lucky Double Zero (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 415627
🎯 Longshots: 1452763
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Gwen To Win (5/2)
Place:1Back Wall Bandit (4/1)
Show:2Tipmanee (7/2)
Other contenders:4Blast Of Mischief (4/1), 5Music Clarifcation (9/2)
Rest of field:6Cassie's Vault (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 312456
🎯 Longshots: 312456
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Tiz Her Law (9/5)
Place:5Explosive Run (7/2)
Show:4Dont Even Think (9/2)
Other contenders:2Pozo (5/2), 1Twisted Pine (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 35421
🎯 Longshots: 35241
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Don's Last Ride (8/5)
Place:5Migratory (5/2)
Show:2Torotoro (9/2)
Other contenders:3The Piranha (4/1), 1Thomas Benjamin (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 45231
🎯 Longshots: 45213
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:8Nit Witness (3/1)
Place:3Cloud In The Wind (8/1)
Show:2Serious Nonsense (6/1)
Other contenders:5Lady Charlotte (4/1), 9Dakota Springs (6/1), 1Normandy Life (6/1)
Rest of field:7Imperio Azteca (12/1), 6Magnolia Wind (8/1), 4Prussian Blue (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 852391
🎯 Longshots: 387912654
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Penn National — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 91 graded races at Penn National, 2026-10-07 to 2026-11-06.

0%10%21%31%41%Our top pick: 33.0% from 91 racesOur top pick33.0%Morning-line favourite: 30.8% from 91 racesMorning-line favourite30.8%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick33.0%91
Morning-line favourite30.8%91
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:5Mysterioso (2/1) 50% · fair 1-1 overlay +98%
Place:3Hands Up Style (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -29%
Show:4Sense Of Wonder (3/1) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -48%
Other contenders:1Rebellution (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 2Charm And Thunder (6/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -63%
Rest of field:6Eclipticals Empire (4/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -76%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Mysterioso — 49.7% win probability, morning line 2/1Mysterioso49.7% ◀Hands Up Style — 15.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Hands Up Style15.1%Sense Of Wonder — 14.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Sense Of Wonder14.7%Rebellution — 8.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Rebellution8.9%Charm And Thunder — 5.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Charm And Thunder5.9%Eclipticals Empire — 5.7% win probability, morning line 4/1Eclipticals Empire5.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Mysterioso49.7%2/1
Hands Up Style15.1%4/1
Sense Of Wonder14.7%3/1
Rebellution8.9%8/1
Charm And Thunder5.9%6/1
Eclipticals Empire5.7%4/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMysterioso: model 49.7% vs market 26.9% (+22.8 points)Mysterioso+22.8Hands Up Style: model 15.1% vs market 16.2% (-1.1 points)Hands Up Style-1.1Sense Of Wonder: model 14.7% vs market 20.2% (-5.6 points)Sense Of Wonder-5.6Rebellution: model 8.9% vs market 9.0% (-0.1 points)Rebellution-0.1Charm And Thunder: model 5.9% vs market 11.5% (-5.7 points)Charm And Thunder-5.7Eclipticals Empire: model 5.7% vs market 16.2% (-10.4 points)Eclipticals Empire-10.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Mysterioso49.7%26.9%+22.8
Hands Up Style15.1%16.2%-1.1
Sense Of Wonder14.7%20.2%-5.6
Rebellution8.9%9.0%-0.1
Charm And Thunder5.9%11.5%-5.7
Eclipticals Empire5.7%16.2%-10.4
🌧️ Off-track: 543621
🎯 Longshots: 514362
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,000
Win:1Beau Hill (9/5) 31% · fair 5-2
Place:2Holy Fit (5/2) 24% · fair 3-1
Show:5Landofhopeandreams (7/2) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -32%
Other contenders:3I'mamaterialgirl (5/1) 15% · fair 6-1, 4Secret Oaks (9/2) 15% · fair 6-1
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Beau Hill — 30.7% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Beau Hill30.7% ◀Holy Fit — 23.8% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Holy Fit23.8%Landofhopeandreams — 16.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Landofhopeandreams16.4%I'Mamaterialgirl — 14.6% win probability, morning line 5/1I'Mamaterialgirl14.6%Secret Oaks — 14.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Secret Oaks14.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Beau Hill30.7%1.8/1
Holy Fit23.8%2.5/1
Landofhopeandreams16.4%3.5/1
I'Mamaterialgirl14.6%5/1
Secret Oaks14.6%4.5/1
🌧️ Off-track: 12543
🎯 Longshots: 12534
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:4Fratellone (2/1) 30% · fair 5-2
Place:1Thirteen G's (4/1) 25% · fair 3-1 overlay +35%
Show:5Fairfield Bay (3/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Other contenders:6Neptune Beach (6/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -48%, 7Atomico (8/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -52%
Rest of field:2Birravino Blvd (8/1) 5% · fair 20-1 underlay -60%, 3Lucky Double Zero (8/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -74%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Fratellone — 30.3% win probability, morning line 2/1Fratellone30.3% ◀Thirteen G'S — 25.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Thirteen G'S25.3%Fairfield Bay — 23.0% win probability, morning line 3/1Fairfield Bay23.0%Neptune Beach — 7.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Neptune Beach7.9%Atomico — 5.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Atomico5.7%Birravino Blvd — 4.7% win probability, morning line 8/1Birravino Blvd4.7%Lucky Double Zero — 3.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Lucky Double Zero3.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Fratellone30.3%2/1
Thirteen G'S25.3%4/1
Fairfield Bay23.0%3/1
Neptune Beach7.9%6/1
Atomico5.7%8/1
Birravino Blvd4.7%8/1
Lucky Double Zero3.2%8/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherFratellone: model 30.3% vs market 26.5% (+3.8 points)Fratellone+3.8Thirteen G'S: model 25.3% vs market 15.9% (+9.4 points)Thirteen G'S+9.4Fairfield Bay: model 23.0% vs market 19.8% (+3.1 points)Fairfield Bay+3.1Neptune Beach: model 7.9% vs market 11.3% (-3.4 points)Neptune Beach-3.4Atomico: model 5.7% vs market 8.8% (-3.1 points)Atomico-3.1Birravino Blvd: model 4.7% vs market 8.8% (-4.1 points)Birravino Blvd-4.1Lucky Double Zero: model 3.2% vs market 8.8% (-5.7 points)Lucky Double Zero-5.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Fratellone30.3%26.5%+3.8
Thirteen G'S25.3%15.9%+9.4
Fairfield Bay23.0%19.8%+3.1
Neptune Beach7.9%11.3%-3.4
Atomico5.7%8.8%-3.1
Birravino Blvd4.7%8.8%-4.1
Lucky Double Zero3.2%8.8%-5.7
🌧️ Off-track: 451672
🎯 Longshots: 1452763
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:3Gwen To Win (5/2) 26% · fair 3-1
Place:1Back Wall Bandit (4/1) 21% · fair 4-1
Show:2Tipmanee (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -27%
Other contenders:4Blast Of Mischief (4/1) 16% · fair 5-1, 5Music Clarifcation (9/2) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -37%
Rest of field:6Cassie's Vault (6/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -50%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Gwen To Win — 25.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Gwen To Win25.9% ◀Back Wall Bandit — 20.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Back Wall Bandit20.8%Tipmanee — 17.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Tipmanee17.2%Blast Of Mischief — 16.1% win probability, morning line 4/1Blast Of Mischief16.1%Music Clarifcation — 12.4% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Music Clarifcation12.4%Cassie'S Vault — 7.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Cassie'S Vault7.7%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Gwen To Win25.9%2.5/1
Back Wall Bandit20.8%4/1
Tipmanee17.2%3.5/1
Blast Of Mischief16.1%4/1
Music Clarifcation12.4%4.5/1
Cassie'S Vault7.7%6/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGwen To Win: model 25.9% vs market 23.2% (+2.7 points)Gwen To Win+2.7Back Wall Bandit: model 20.8% vs market 16.2% (+4.6 points)Back Wall Bandit+4.6Tipmanee: model 17.2% vs market 18.0% (-0.8 points)Tipmanee-0.8Blast Of Mischief: model 16.1% vs market 16.2% (-0.1 points)Blast Of Mischief-0.1Music Clarifcation: model 12.4% vs market 14.8% (-2.4 points)Music Clarifcation-2.4Cassie'S Vault: model 7.7% vs market 11.6% (-3.9 points)Cassie'S Vault-3.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Gwen To Win25.9%23.2%+2.7
Back Wall Bandit20.8%16.2%+4.6
Tipmanee17.2%18.0%-0.8
Blast Of Mischief16.1%16.2%-0.1
Music Clarifcation12.4%14.8%-2.4
Cassie'S Vault7.7%11.6%-3.9
🌧️ Off-track: 312456
🎯 Longshots: 312456
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:5Explosive Run (7/2) 28% · fair 5-2 overlay +36%
Place:4Dont Even Think (9/2) 22% · fair 7-2 overlay +27%
Show:2Pozo (5/2) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -42%
Other contenders:3Tiz Her Law (9/5) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -59%, 1Twisted Pine (5/1) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -29%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Explosive Run — 28.0% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Explosive Run28.0% ◀Dont Even Think — 22.0% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Dont Even Think22.0%Pozo — 18.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Pozo18.9%Tiz Her Law — 18.7% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Tiz Her Law18.7%Twisted Pine — 12.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Twisted Pine12.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Explosive Run28.0%3.5/1
Dont Even Think22.0%4.5/1
Pozo18.9%2.5/1
Tiz Her Law18.7%1.8/1
Twisted Pine12.5%5/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherExplosive Run: model 28.0% vs market 18.3% (+9.7 points)Explosive Run+9.7Dont Even Think: model 22.0% vs market 15.0% (+7.0 points)Dont Even Think+7.0Pozo: model 18.9% vs market 23.5% (-4.7 points)Pozo-4.7Tiz Her Law: model 18.7% vs market 29.4% (-10.8 points)Tiz Her Law-10.8Twisted Pine: model 12.5% vs market 13.7% (-1.3 points)Twisted Pine-1.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Explosive Run28.0%18.3%+9.7
Dont Even Think22.0%15.0%+7.0
Pozo18.9%23.5%-4.7
Tiz Her Law18.7%29.4%-10.8
Twisted Pine12.5%13.7%-1.3
🌧️ Off-track: 53241
🎯 Longshots: 35241
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:4Don's Last Ride (8/5) 36% · fair 2-1
Place:5Migratory (5/2) 29% · fair 5-2
Show:2Torotoro (9/2) 16% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:1Thomas Benjamin (5/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -43%, 3The Piranha (4/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -63%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Don'S Last Ride — 35.9% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Don'S Last Ride35.9% ◀Migratory — 29.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Migratory29.2%Torotoro — 16.0% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Torotoro16.0%Thomas Benjamin — 10.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Thomas Benjamin10.3%The Piranha — 8.6% win probability, morning line 4/1The Piranha8.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Don'S Last Ride35.9%1.6/1
Migratory29.2%2.5/1
Torotoro16.0%4.5/1
Thomas Benjamin10.3%5/1
The Piranha8.6%4/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDon'S Last Ride: model 35.9% vs market 31.6% (+4.4 points)Don'S Last Ride+4.4Migratory: model 29.2% vs market 23.4% (+5.7 points)Migratory+5.7Torotoro: model 16.0% vs market 14.9% (+1.1 points)Torotoro+1.1Thomas Benjamin: model 10.3% vs market 13.7% (-3.4 points)Thomas Benjamin-3.4The Piranha: model 8.6% vs market 16.4% (-7.9 points)The Piranha-7.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Don'S Last Ride35.9%31.6%+4.4
Migratory29.2%23.4%+5.7
Torotoro16.0%14.9%+1.1
Thomas Benjamin10.3%13.7%-3.4
The Piranha8.6%16.4%-7.9
🌧️ Off-track: 45231
🎯 Longshots: 45213
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:8Nit Witness (3/1) 32% · fair 2-1 overlay +40%
Place:9Dakota Springs (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Show:5Lady Charlotte (4/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -46%
Other contenders:2Serious Nonsense (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -27%, 3Cloud In The Wind (8/1) 11% · fair 17-2, 1Normandy Life (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -33%
Rest of field:7Imperio Azteca (12/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -31%, 6Magnolia Wind (8/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -59%, 4Prussian Blue (10/1) 1% · fair 75-1 underlay -87%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Nit Witness — 31.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Nit Witness31.8% ◀Dakota Springs — 13.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Dakota Springs13.2%Lady Charlotte — 11.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Lady Charlotte11.8%Serious Nonsense — 10.8% win probability, morning line 6/1Serious Nonsense10.8%Cloud In The Wind — 10.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Cloud In The Wind10.6%Normandy Life — 10.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Normandy Life10.1%Imperio Azteca — 5.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Imperio Azteca5.4%Magnolia Wind — 4.9% win probability, morning line 8/1Magnolia Wind4.9%Prussian Blue — 1.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Prussian Blue1.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Nit Witness31.8%3/1
Dakota Springs13.2%6/1
Lady Charlotte11.8%4/1
Serious Nonsense10.8%6/1
Cloud In The Wind10.6%8/1
Normandy Life10.1%6/1
Imperio Azteca5.4%12/1
Magnolia Wind4.9%8/1
Prussian Blue1.3%10/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherNit Witness: model 31.8% vs market 19.7% (+12.1 points)Nit Witness+12.1Dakota Springs: model 13.2% vs market 11.3% (+1.9 points)Dakota Springs+1.9Lady Charlotte: model 11.8% vs market 15.8% (-3.9 points)Lady Charlotte-3.9Serious Nonsense: model 10.8% vs market 11.3% (-0.4 points)Serious Nonsense-0.4Cloud In The Wind: model 10.6% vs market 8.8% (+1.9 points)Cloud In The Wind+1.9Normandy Life: model 10.1% vs market 11.3% (-1.2 points)Normandy Life-1.2Imperio Azteca: model 5.4% vs market 6.1% (-0.6 points)Imperio Azteca-0.6Magnolia Wind: model 4.9% vs market 8.8% (-3.8 points)Magnolia Wind-3.8Prussian Blue: model 1.3% vs market 7.2% (-5.9 points)Prussian Blue-5.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Nit Witness31.8%19.7%+12.1
Dakota Springs13.2%11.3%+1.9
Lady Charlotte11.8%15.8%-3.9
Serious Nonsense10.8%11.3%-0.4
Cloud In The Wind10.6%8.8%+1.9
Normandy Life10.1%11.3%-1.2
Imperio Azteca5.4%6.1%-0.6
Magnolia Wind4.9%8.8%-3.8
Prussian Blue1.3%7.2%-5.9
🌧️ Off-track: 859213
🎯 Longshots: 387912654
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #9, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:5Mysterioso (2/1)
Place:3Hands Up Style (4/1)
Show:4Sense Of Wonder (3/1)
Other contenders:1Rebellution (8/1), 6Eclipticals Empire (4/1)
Rest of field:2Charm And Thunder (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 543612
🎯 Longshots: 514362
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,000
Win:1Beau Hill (9/5)
Place:2Holy Fit (5/2)
Show:5Landofhopeandreams (7/2)
Other contenders:4Secret Oaks (9/2), 3I'mamaterialgirl (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 12543
🎯 Longshots: 12534
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:1Thirteen G's (4/1)
Place:4Fratellone (2/1)
Show:5Fairfield Bay (3/1)
Other contenders:6Neptune Beach (6/1), 2Birravino Blvd (8/1)
Rest of field:7Atomico (8/1), 3Lucky Double Zero (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 415627
🎯 Longshots: 1452763
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:1Back Wall Bandit (4/1)
Place:3Gwen To Win (5/2)
Show:2Tipmanee (7/2)
Other contenders:4Blast Of Mischief (4/1), 5Music Clarifcation (9/2)
Rest of field:6Cassie's Vault (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 312456
🎯 Longshots: 312456
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:5Explosive Run (7/2)
Place:3Tiz Her Law (9/5)
Show:2Pozo (5/2)
Other contenders:4Dont Even Think (9/2), 1Twisted Pine (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 35241
🎯 Longshots: 35241
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:4Don's Last Ride (8/5)
Place:5Migratory (5/2)
Show:2Torotoro (9/2)
Other contenders:1Thomas Benjamin (5/1), 3The Piranha (4/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 45231
🎯 Longshots: 45213
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:8Nit Witness (3/1)
Place:9Dakota Springs (6/1)
Show:3Cloud In The Wind (8/1)
Other contenders:5Lady Charlotte (4/1), 1Normandy Life (6/1), 2Serious Nonsense (6/1)
Rest of field:7Imperio Azteca (12/1), 6Magnolia Wind (8/1), 4Prussian Blue (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 859123
🎯 Longshots: 387912654
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #9, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #5 over #4 ($1 straight; box #5-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #3, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #1 over #2 ($1 straight; box #1-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #2, #5, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #1 over #4 ($1 straight; box #1-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #1, #5, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #3 over #1 ($1 straight; box #3-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #3, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #3 over #5 ($1 straight; box #3-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #3, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #4 over #5 ($1 straight; box #4-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #5, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #8 over #1 ($1 straight; box #8-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #3, #9, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:5Mysterioso (2/1)
Place:1Rebellution (8/1)
Show:3Hands Up Style (4/1)
Other contenders:4Sense Of Wonder (3/1), 2Charm And Thunder (6/1)
Rest of field:6Eclipticals Empire (4/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 543162
🎯 Longshots: 514362
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,000
Win:1Beau Hill (9/5)
Place:2Holy Fit (5/2)
Show:5Landofhopeandreams (7/2)
Other contenders:3I'mamaterialgirl (5/1), 4Secret Oaks (9/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 12534
🎯 Longshots: 12534
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:1Thirteen G's (4/1)
Place:4Fratellone (2/1)
Show:5Fairfield Bay (3/1)
Other contenders:2Birravino Blvd (8/1), 6Neptune Beach (6/1)
Rest of field:7Atomico (8/1), 3Lucky Double Zero (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 415627
🎯 Longshots: 1452763
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #5, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:1Back Wall Bandit (4/1)
Place:3Gwen To Win (5/2)
Show:4Blast Of Mischief (4/1)
Other contenders:2Tipmanee (7/2), 5Music Clarifcation (9/2)
Rest of field:6Cassie's Vault (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 312456
🎯 Longshots: 312456
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:5Explosive Run (7/2)
Place:3Tiz Her Law (9/5)
Show:2Pozo (5/2)
Other contenders:4Dont Even Think (9/2), 1Twisted Pine (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 53241
🎯 Longshots: 35241
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:4Don's Last Ride (8/5)
Place:5Migratory (5/2)
Show:2Torotoro (9/2)
Other contenders:1Thomas Benjamin (5/1), 3The Piranha (4/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 45231
🎯 Longshots: 45213
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:8Nit Witness (3/1)
Place:7Imperio Azteca (12/1)
Show:9Dakota Springs (6/1)
Other contenders:2Serious Nonsense (6/1), 5Lady Charlotte (4/1), 1Normandy Life (6/1)
Rest of field:3Cloud In The Wind (8/1), 6Magnolia Wind (8/1), 4Prussian Blue (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 859217
🎯 Longshots: 387912654
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $36,000
Win:5Mysterioso (2/1)
Place:3Hands Up Style (4/1)
Show:1Rebellution (8/1)
Other contenders:4Sense Of Wonder (3/1), 2Charm And Thunder (6/1)
Rest of field:6Eclipticals Empire (4/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 543612
🎯 Longshots: 514362
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $17,000
Win:1Beau Hill (9/5)
Place:2Holy Fit (5/2)
Show:5Landofhopeandreams (7/2)
Other contenders:3I'mamaterialgirl (5/1), 4Secret Oaks (9/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 12543
🎯 Longshots: 12534
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $14,000
Win:4Fratellone (2/1)
Place:1Thirteen G's (4/1)
Show:5Fairfield Bay (3/1)
Other contenders:6Neptune Beach (6/1), 2Birravino Blvd (8/1)
Rest of field:7Atomico (8/1), 3Lucky Double Zero (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 415627
🎯 Longshots: 1452763
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:1Back Wall Bandit (4/1)
Place:3Gwen To Win (5/2)
Show:4Blast Of Mischief (4/1)
Other contenders:2Tipmanee (7/2), 5Music Clarifcation (9/2)
Rest of field:6Cassie's Vault (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 312456
🎯 Longshots: 312456
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $18,000
Win:5Explosive Run (7/2)
Place:3Tiz Her Law (9/5)
Show:2Pozo (5/2)
Other contenders:4Dont Even Think (9/2), 1Twisted Pine (5/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 35241
🎯 Longshots: 35241
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $13,000
Win:4Don's Last Ride (8/5)
Place:5Migratory (5/2)
Show:2Torotoro (9/2)
Other contenders:1Thomas Benjamin (5/1), 3The Piranha (4/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 45231
🎯 Longshots: 45213
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $19,000
Win:8Nit Witness (3/1)
Place:3Cloud In The Wind (8/1)
Show:9Dakota Springs (6/1)
Other contenders:2Serious Nonsense (6/1), 1Normandy Life (6/1), 5Lady Charlotte (4/1)
Rest of field:7Imperio Azteca (12/1), 6Magnolia Wind (8/1), 4Prussian Blue (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 859213
🎯 Longshots: 387912654
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets – Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #5,#3 (65%) / R2: #1,#2,#5 (71%) / R3: #4,#1,#5 (78%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 36%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #1,#2,#5 (71%) / R3: #4,#1,#5 (78%) / R4: #3,#1,#2 (64%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 36%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #3,#1,#2 (64%) / R5: #5,#4,#2 (69%) / R6: #4,#5 (65%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #5,#4,#2 (69%) / R6: #4,#5 (65%) / R7: #8,#9,#5 (57%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #5,#3 (65%) / R2: #1,#2,#5 (71%) / R3: #4,#1,#5 (78%) / R4: #3,#1,#2 (64%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23%
Pick 4 R3-6R3: #4,#1,#5 (78%) / R4: #3,#1,#2 (64%) / R5: #5,#4,#2 (69%) / R6: #4,#5 (65%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22%
Index – Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ATOMICOBACK WALL BANDITBEAU HILLBIRRAVINO BLVDBLAST OF MISCHIEF
CHARM AND THUNDERCLOUD IN THE WINDDAKOTA SPRINGSDON'S LAST RIDEDONT EVEN THINK
EXPLOSIVE RUNFAIRFIELD BAYFRATELLONEGWEN TO WINHANDS UP STYLE
I'MAMATERIALGIRLIMPERIO AZTECALADY CHARLOTTELANDOFHOPEANDREAMSLUCKY DOUBLE ZERO
MIGRATORYMUSIC CLARIFCATIONMYSTERIOSONEPTUNE BEACHNIT WITNESS
POZOPRUSSIAN BLUEREBELLUTIONSECRET OAKSSENSE OF WONDER
THE PIRANHATHIRTEEN G'STHOMAS BENJAMINTIPMANEETIZ HER LAW
TWISTED PINE

 


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