Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Santa Anita Park, October 3, 2026


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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Dream Seeker (3/1)
Place:2Hoaxer (5/2)
Show:5Absolution (2/1)
Other contenders:4Bliksem (6/1), 6Federation (8/1)
Rest of field:3Schooner (10/1), 7Et Al (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 127546
🎯 Longshots: 1237645
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Grade 3 Stake · Purse $100,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Toaster (6/5)
Place:1Thermal (2/1)
Show:4Paradise City (7/2)
Other contenders:3Our Moonlight (6/1), 2No Bad Beats (12/1)
Rest of field:6Rosie Jeeks (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 654213
🎯 Longshots: 512436
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Grade 2 Stake · Purse $200,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Holmby (9/5)
Place:6Deluge (8/5)
Show:1Quattro Passi (5/2)
Other contenders:4Free Closer (6/1), 3Domain Expansion (20/1)
Rest of field:5Janie Not Jeanie (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 261435
🎯 Longshots: 216453
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
Win:4Owl (5/2)
Place:3Frank Bullitt (2/1)
Show:1King's Ride (5/1)
Other contenders:5Jetovator (5/1), 8Pokerknightatvees (8/1), 2Mo Diamantes (10/1)
Rest of field:7Proof He Goes (12/1), 6Seaver Way (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 371452
🎯 Longshots: 34872156
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:2Angel's Ember (6/5)
Place:5D's Four Thumbs Up (7/2)
Show:4Empire Of Ash (8/1)
Other contenders:1Morning Glass (6/1), 6Love Doctor (8/1), 3Smokem Thirsty (12/1)
Rest of field:9High Hull Gill (12/1), 8Olympian Thirst (30/1), 7Fully Favorable (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 254163
🎯 Longshots: 245136987
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $100,000
Win:2Omaha Spirit (8/5)
Place:6Arctic Wolf (2/1)
Show:7Off In The Corner (5/2)
Other contenders:3High Pronto (10/1), 5Belleza Latina (12/1)
Rest of field:4Study Session (15/1), 1Fumano's Fire (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 267354
🎯 Longshots: 2637451
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $300,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field, a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Hughes (4/5)
Place:4Imperial Honor (9/5)
Show:6Domus (8/1)
Other contenders:1Dang Son (12/1), 5Emancipate (10/1)
Rest of field:3Net Par (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 246531
🎯 Longshots: 246135
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
Win:5Moment Of Valor (4/1)
Place:7Got'm Cot'm (3/1)
Show:3Courtside Action (4/1)
Other contenders:9Saul Elliott (8/1), 4Ballyvaughan Gig (9/2), 6Rodrigoknows (8/1)
Rest of field:2Disko Tribute (6/1), 8Check's On The Way (20/1), 1Speed Of Elon (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 135248
🎯 Longshots: 795638421
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #3, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:8Beautiful Dawn (7/5)
Place:5Tashie (2/1)
Show:6Stay Bossy (5/1)
Other contenders:7Breakaway Babe (12/1), 9Manee (8/1), 3You Trust Me (20/1)
Rest of field:2Strident Miss (30/1), 4Caps D'oro (20/1), 1Glorys Morning (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 985673
🎯 Longshots: 587392641
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/4 Miles · Turf · Grade 2 Stake · Purse $200,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Thought Process (4/5)
Place:9May Day Ready (5/1)
Show:11Vronti (6/1)
Other contenders:7Hey Jessie (10/1), 3Dona Clota (15/1), 5Public Assembly (15/1), 6Kentucky Gal (20/1)
Rest of field:8Victorious Dream (20/1), 4Totally Justified (30/1), 2Resolve (30/1), 10The Mizen Queen (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1911356
🎯 Longshots: 1375468102119
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #9, #11, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:5Absolution (2/1) 28% · fair 5-2
Place:2Hoaxer (5/2) 21% · fair 7-2 underlay -33%
Show:1Dream Seeker (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -27%
Other contenders:4Bliksem (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -27%, 6Federation (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -28%
Rest of field:3Schooner (10/1) 8% · fair 23-2, 7Et Al (20/1) 4% · fair 27-1 underlay -25%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Absolution — 28.3% win probability, morning line 2/1Absolution28.3% ◀Hoaxer — 21.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Hoaxer21.2%Dream Seeker — 19.7% win probability, morning line 3/1Dream Seeker19.7%Bliksem — 10.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Bliksem10.9%Federation — 8.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Federation8.3%Schooner — 8.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Schooner8.0%Et Al — 3.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Et Al3.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Absolution28.3%2/1
Hoaxer21.2%2.5/1
Dream Seeker19.7%3/1
Bliksem10.9%6/1
Federation8.3%8/1
Schooner8.0%10/1
Et Al3.6%20/1
🌧️ Off-track: 752146
🎯 Longshots: 1237645
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Grade 3 Stake · Purse $100,000
Win:5Toaster (6/5) 41% · fair 3-2
Place:4Paradise City (7/2) 22% · fair 7-2
Show:1Thermal (2/1) 21% · fair 4-1 underlay -48%
Other contenders:3Our Moonlight (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -33%, 2No Bad Beats (12/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -45%
Rest of field:6Rosie Jeeks (30/1) 1% · fair 67-1 underlay -55%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Toaster — 41.3% win probability, morning line 1.2/1Toaster41.3% ◀Paradise City — 22.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Paradise City22.1%Thermal — 20.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Thermal20.6%Our Moonlight — 10.1% win probability, morning line 6/1Our Moonlight10.1%No Bad Beats — 4.4% win probability, morning line 12/1No Bad Beats4.4%Rosie Jeeks — 1.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Rosie Jeeks1.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Toaster41.3%1.2/1
Paradise City22.1%3.5/1
Thermal20.6%2/1
Our Moonlight10.1%6/1
No Bad Beats4.4%12/1
Rosie Jeeks1.5%30/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherToaster: model 41.3% vs market 36.0% (+5.3 points)Toaster+5.3Paradise City: model 22.1% vs market 17.6% (+4.5 points)Paradise City+4.5Thermal: model 20.6% vs market 26.4% (-5.8 points)Thermal-5.8Our Moonlight: model 10.1% vs market 11.3% (-1.3 points)Our Moonlight-1.3No Bad Beats: model 4.4% vs market 6.1% (-1.7 points)No Bad Beats-1.7Rosie Jeeks: model 1.5% vs market 2.6% (-1.1 points)Rosie Jeeks-1.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Toaster41.3%36.0%+5.3
Paradise City22.1%17.6%+4.5
Thermal20.6%26.4%-5.8
Our Moonlight10.1%11.3%-1.3
No Bad Beats4.4%6.1%-1.7
Rosie Jeeks1.5%2.6%-1.1
🌧️ Off-track: 645213
🎯 Longshots: 512436
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Grade 2 Stake · Purse $200,000
Win:6Deluge (8/5) 37% · fair 3-2
Place:2Holmby (9/5) 28% · fair 5-2 underlay -30%
Show:1Quattro Passi (5/2) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -37%
Other contenders:4Free Closer (6/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -36%, 5Janie Not Jeanie (20/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -39%
Rest of field:3Domain Expansion (20/1) 2% · fair 89-2 underlay -55%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Deluge — 37.2% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Deluge37.2% ◀Holmby — 28.0% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Holmby28.0%Quattro Passi — 20.1% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Quattro Passi20.1%Free Closer — 9.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Free Closer9.6%Janie Not Jeanie — 2.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Janie Not Jeanie2.9%Domain Expansion — 2.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Domain Expansion2.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Deluge37.2%1.6/1
Holmby28.0%1.8/1
Quattro Passi20.1%2.5/1
Free Closer9.6%6/1
Janie Not Jeanie2.9%20/1
Domain Expansion2.2%20/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDeluge: model 37.2% vs market 30.4% (+6.8 points)Deluge+6.8Holmby: model 28.0% vs market 28.2% (-0.3 points)Holmby-0.3Quattro Passi: model 20.1% vs market 22.6% (-2.5 points)Quattro Passi-2.5Free Closer: model 9.6% vs market 11.3% (-1.7 points)Free Closer-1.7Janie Not Jeanie: model 2.9% vs market 3.8% (-0.8 points)Janie Not Jeanie-0.8Domain Expansion: model 2.2% vs market 3.8% (-1.6 points)Domain Expansion-1.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Deluge37.2%30.4%+6.8
Holmby28.0%28.2%-0.3
Quattro Passi20.1%22.6%-2.5
Free Closer9.6%11.3%-1.7
Janie Not Jeanie2.9%3.8%-0.8
Domain Expansion2.2%3.8%-1.6
🌧️ Off-track: 621435
🎯 Longshots: 216453
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:3Frank Bullitt (2/1) 29% · fair 5-2
Place:4Owl (5/2) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -46%
Show:5Jetovator (5/1) 14% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:1King's Ride (5/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -37%, 2Mo Diamantes (10/1) 10% · fair 19-2, 8Pokerknightatvees (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2
Rest of field:7Proof He Goes (12/1) 8% · fair 11-1, 6Seaver Way (30/1) 2% · fair 64-1 underlay -53%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Frank Bullitt — 29.2% win probability, morning line 2/1Frank Bullitt29.2% ◀Owl — 17.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Owl17.7%Jetovator — 13.6% win probability, morning line 5/1Jetovator13.6%King'S Ride — 11.2% win probability, morning line 5/1King'S Ride11.2%Mo Diamantes — 9.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Mo Diamantes9.6%Pokerknightatvees — 8.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Pokerknightatvees8.8%Proof He Goes — 8.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Proof He Goes8.4%Seaver Way — 1.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Seaver Way1.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Frank Bullitt29.2%2/1
Owl17.7%2.5/1
Jetovator13.6%5/1
King'S Ride11.2%5/1
Mo Diamantes9.6%10/1
Pokerknightatvees8.8%8/1
Proof He Goes8.4%12/1
Seaver Way1.5%30/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherFrank Bullitt: model 29.2% vs market 26.4% (+2.8 points)Frank Bullitt+2.8Owl: model 17.7% vs market 22.6% (-4.9 points)Owl-4.9Jetovator: model 13.6% vs market 13.2% (+0.4 points)Jetovator+0.4King'S Ride: model 11.2% vs market 13.2% (-2.0 points)King'S Ride-2.0Mo Diamantes: model 9.6% vs market 7.2% (+2.4 points)Mo Diamantes+2.4Pokerknightatvees: model 8.8% vs market 8.8% (+0.1 points)Pokerknightatvees+0.1Proof He Goes: model 8.4% vs market 6.1% (+2.3 points)Proof He Goes+2.3Seaver Way: model 1.5% vs market 2.6% (-1.0 points)Seaver Way-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Frank Bullitt29.2%26.4%+2.8
Owl17.7%22.6%-4.9
Jetovator13.6%13.2%+0.4
King'S Ride11.2%13.2%-2.0
Mo Diamantes9.6%7.2%+2.4
Pokerknightatvees8.8%8.8%+0.1
Proof He Goes8.4%6.1%+2.3
Seaver Way1.5%2.6%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 371645
🎯 Longshots: 34872156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:2Angel's Ember (6/5) 32% · fair 2-1 underlay -43%
Place:5D's Four Thumbs Up (7/2) 19% · fair 4-1
Show:1Morning Glass (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:4Empire Of Ash (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 3Smokem Thirsty (12/1) 8% · fair 23-2, 6Love Doctor (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -31%
Rest of field:9High Hull Gill (12/1) 6% · fair 16-1, 8Olympian Thirst (30/1) 2% · fair 103-2 underlay -42%, 7Fully Favorable (30/1) 2% · fair 52-1 underlay -42%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Angel'S Ember — 32.3% win probability, morning line 1.2/1Angel'S Ember32.3% ◀D'S Four Thumbs Up — 19.4% win probability, morning line 3.5/1D'S Four Thumbs Up19.4%Morning Glass — 11.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Morning Glass11.6%Empire Of Ash — 11.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Empire Of Ash11.0%Smokem Thirsty — 8.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Smokem Thirsty8.0%Love Doctor — 8.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Love Doctor8.0%High Hull Gill — 5.9% win probability, morning line 12/1High Hull Gill5.9%Olympian Thirst — 1.9% win probability, morning line 30/1Olympian Thirst1.9%Fully Favorable — 1.9% win probability, morning line 30/1Fully Favorable1.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Angel'S Ember32.3%1.2/1
D'S Four Thumbs Up19.4%3.5/1
Morning Glass11.6%6/1
Empire Of Ash11.0%8/1
Smokem Thirsty8.0%12/1
Love Doctor8.0%8/1
High Hull Gill5.9%12/1
Olympian Thirst1.9%30/1
Fully Favorable1.9%30/1
🌧️ Off-track: 251436
🎯 Longshots: 245136987
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $100,000
Win:2Omaha Spirit (8/5) 32% · fair 2-1
Place:7Off In The Corner (5/2) 26% · fair 3-1
Show:6Arctic Wolf (2/1) 24% · fair 3-1 underlay -38%
Other contenders:3High Pronto (10/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -31%, 4Study Session (15/1) 5% · fair 37-2
Rest of field:5Belleza Latina (12/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -46%, 1Fumano's Fire (30/1) 2% · fair 56-1 underlay -46%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Omaha Spirit — 32.4% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Omaha Spirit32.4% ◀Off In The Corner — 26.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Off In The Corner26.2%Arctic Wolf — 23.6% win probability, morning line 2/1Arctic Wolf23.6%High Pronto — 6.5% win probability, morning line 10/1High Pronto6.5%Study Session — 5.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Study Session5.1%Belleza Latina — 4.3% win probability, morning line 12/1Belleza Latina4.3%Fumano'S Fire — 1.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Fumano'S Fire1.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Omaha Spirit32.4%1.6/1
Off In The Corner26.2%2.5/1
Arctic Wolf23.6%2/1
High Pronto6.5%10/1
Study Session5.1%15/1
Belleza Latina4.3%12/1
Fumano'S Fire1.8%30/1
🌧️ Off-track: 276345
🎯 Longshots: 2637451
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $300,000
Win:2Hughes (4/5) 50% · fair 5-5
Place:4Imperial Honor (9/5) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -37%
Show:6Domus (8/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -42%
Other contenders:5Emancipate (10/1) 7% · fair 29-2 underlay -30%, 1Dang Son (12/1) 6% · fair 31-2
Rest of field:3Net Par (12/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -48%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Hughes — 50.4% win probability, morning line 0.8/1Hughes50.4% ◀Imperial Honor — 26.1% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Imperial Honor26.1%Domus — 6.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Domus6.8%Emancipate — 6.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Emancipate6.5%Dang Son — 6.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Dang Son6.1%Net Par — 4.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Net Par4.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Hughes50.4%0.8/1
Imperial Honor26.1%1.8/1
Domus6.8%8/1
Emancipate6.5%10/1
Dang Son6.1%12/1
Net Par4.2%12/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHughes: model 50.4% vs market 43.8% (+6.6 points)Hughes+6.6Imperial Honor: model 26.1% vs market 28.2% (-2.1 points)Imperial Honor-2.1Domus: model 6.8% vs market 8.8% (-2.0 points)Domus-2.0Emancipate: model 6.5% vs market 7.2% (-0.6 points)Emancipate-0.6Dang Son: model 6.1% vs market 6.1% (+0.0 points)Dang Son+0.0Net Par: model 4.2% vs market 6.1% (-1.9 points)Net Par-1.9

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Hughes50.4%43.8%+6.6
Imperial Honor26.1%28.2%-2.1
Domus6.8%8.8%-2.0
Emancipate6.5%7.2%-0.6
Dang Son6.1%6.1%+0.0
Net Par4.2%6.1%-1.9
🌧️ Off-track: 246531
🎯 Longshots: 246135
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #6, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:7Got'm Cot'm (3/1) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -28%
Place:5Moment Of Valor (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -27%
Show:3Courtside Action (4/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -35%
Other contenders:2Disko Tribute (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 6Rodrigoknows (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 9Saul Elliott (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1
Rest of field:4Ballyvaughan Gig (9/2) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -54%, 8Check's On The Way (20/1) 5% · fair 20-1, 1Speed Of Elon (30/1) 1% · fair 179-2 underlay -66%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Got'M Cot'M — 19.4% win probability, morning line 3/1Got'M Cot'M19.4% ◀Moment Of Valor — 15.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Moment Of Valor15.4%Courtside Action — 14.0% win probability, morning line 4/1Courtside Action14.0%Disko Tribute — 13.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Disko Tribute13.0%Rodrigoknows — 11.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Rodrigoknows11.5%Saul Elliott — 11.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Saul Elliott11.3%Ballyvaughan Gig — 9.4% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Ballyvaughan Gig9.4%Check'S On The Way — 4.7% win probability, morning line 20/1Check'S On The Way4.7%Speed Of Elon — 1.1% win probability, morning line 30/1Speed Of Elon1.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Got'M Cot'M19.4%3/1
Moment Of Valor15.4%4/1
Courtside Action14.0%4/1
Disko Tribute13.0%6/1
Rodrigoknows11.5%8/1
Saul Elliott11.3%8/1
Ballyvaughan Gig9.4%4.5/1
Check'S On The Way4.7%20/1
Speed Of Elon1.1%30/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGot'M Cot'M: model 19.4% vs market 19.6% (-0.1 points)Got'M Cot'M-0.1Moment Of Valor: model 15.4% vs market 15.7% (-0.2 points)Moment Of Valor-0.2Courtside Action: model 14.0% vs market 15.7% (-1.6 points)Courtside Action-1.6Disko Tribute: model 13.0% vs market 11.2% (+1.9 points)Disko Tribute+1.9Rodrigoknows: model 11.5% vs market 8.7% (+2.8 points)Rodrigoknows+2.8Saul Elliott: model 11.3% vs market 8.7% (+2.6 points)Saul Elliott+2.6Ballyvaughan Gig: model 9.4% vs market 14.2% (-4.9 points)Ballyvaughan Gig-4.9Check'S On The Way: model 4.7% vs market 3.7% (+1.0 points)Check'S On The Way+1.0Speed Of Elon: model 1.1% vs market 2.5% (-1.4 points)Speed Of Elon-1.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Got'M Cot'M19.4%19.6%-0.1
Moment Of Valor15.4%15.7%-0.2
Courtside Action14.0%15.7%-1.6
Disko Tribute13.0%11.2%+1.9
Rodrigoknows11.5%8.7%+2.8
Saul Elliott11.3%8.7%+2.6
Ballyvaughan Gig9.4%14.2%-4.9
Check'S On The Way4.7%3.7%+1.0
Speed Of Elon1.1%2.5%-1.4
🌧️ Off-track: 135284
🎯 Longshots: 795638421
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:8Beautiful Dawn (7/5) 36% · fair 2-1
Place:5Tashie (2/1) 27% · fair 5-2 underlay -27%
Show:6Stay Bossy (5/1) 16% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:9Manee (8/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -28%, 7Breakaway Babe (12/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -44%, 3You Trust Me (20/1) 3% · fair 65-2 underlay -39%
Rest of field:4Caps D'oro (20/1) 2% · fair 42-1 underlay -53%, 2Strident Miss (30/1) 2% · fair 50-1 underlay -40%, 1Glorys Morning (30/1) 2% · fair 129-2 underlay -53%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Beautiful Dawn — 36.0% win probability, morning line 1.4/1Beautiful Dawn36.0% ◀Tashie — 26.7% win probability, morning line 2/1Tashie26.7%Stay Bossy — 15.8% win probability, morning line 5/1Stay Bossy15.8%Manee — 8.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Manee8.3%Breakaway Babe — 4.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Breakaway Babe4.4%You Trust Me — 3.0% win probability, morning line 20/1You Trust Me3.0%Caps D'Oro — 2.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Caps D'Oro2.3%Strident Miss — 2.0% win probability, morning line 30/1Strident Miss2.0%Glorys Morning — 1.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Glorys Morning1.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Beautiful Dawn36.0%1.4/1
Tashie26.7%2/1
Stay Bossy15.8%5/1
Manee8.3%8/1
Breakaway Babe4.4%12/1
You Trust Me3.0%20/1
Caps D'Oro2.3%20/1
Strident Miss2.0%30/1
Glorys Morning1.5%30/1
🌧️ Off-track: 985673
🎯 Longshots: 587392641
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #6, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/4 Miles · Turf · Grade 2 Stake · Purse $200,000
Win:1Thought Process (4/5) 42% · fair 3-2 underlay -43%
Place:9May Day Ready (5/1) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:11Vronti (6/1) 11% · fair 8-1
Other contenders:7Hey Jessie (10/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 5Public Assembly (15/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -28%, 3Dona Clota (15/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -30%, 6Kentucky Gal (20/1) 3% · fair 57-2 underlay -30%
Rest of field:8Victorious Dream (20/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -40%, 4Totally Justified (30/1) 2% · fair 55-1 underlay -45%, 10The Mizen Queen (30/1) 2% · fair 125-2 underlay -52%, 2Resolve (30/1) 1% · fair 66-1 underlay -55%
Race 10 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Thought Process — 41.8% win probability, morning line 0.8/1Thought Process41.8% ◀May Day Ready — 17.8% win probability, morning line 5/1May Day Ready17.8%Vronti — 11.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Vronti11.2%Hey Jessie — 9.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Hey Jessie9.0%Public Assembly — 4.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Public Assembly4.6%Dona Clota — 4.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Dona Clota4.5%Kentucky Gal — 3.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Kentucky Gal3.4%Victorious Dream — 2.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Victorious Dream2.9%Totally Justified — 1.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Totally Justified1.8%The Mizen Queen — 1.6% win probability, morning line 30/1The Mizen Queen1.6%Resolve — 1.5% win probability, morning line 30/1Resolve1.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Thought Process41.8%0.8/1
May Day Ready17.8%5/1
Vronti11.2%6/1
Hey Jessie9.0%10/1
Public Assembly4.6%15/1
Dona Clota4.5%15/1
Kentucky Gal3.4%20/1
Victorious Dream2.9%20/1
Totally Justified1.8%30/1
The Mizen Queen1.6%30/1
Resolve1.5%30/1
Race 10 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherThought Process: model 41.8% vs market 43.6% (-1.9 points)Thought Process-1.9May Day Ready: model 17.8% vs market 13.1% (+4.7 points)May Day Ready+4.7Vronti: model 11.2% vs market 11.2% (-0.0 points)Vronti-0.0Hey Jessie: model 9.0% vs market 7.1% (+1.9 points)Hey Jessie+1.9Public Assembly: model 4.6% vs market 4.9% (-0.3 points)Public Assembly-0.3Dona Clota: model 4.5% vs market 4.9% (-0.4 points)Dona Clota-0.4Kentucky Gal: model 3.4% vs market 3.7% (-0.3 points)Kentucky Gal-0.3Victorious Dream: model 2.9% vs market 3.7% (-0.8 points)Victorious Dream-0.8Totally Justified: model 1.8% vs market 2.5% (-0.7 points)Totally Justified-0.7The Mizen Queen: model 1.6% vs market 2.5% (-1.0 points)The Mizen Queen-1.0Resolve: model 1.5% vs market 2.5% (-1.0 points)Resolve-1.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Thought Process41.8%43.6%-1.9
May Day Ready17.8%13.1%+4.7
Vronti11.2%11.2%-0.0
Hey Jessie9.0%7.1%+1.9
Public Assembly4.6%4.9%-0.3
Dona Clota4.5%4.9%-0.4
Kentucky Gal3.4%3.7%-0.3
Victorious Dream2.9%3.7%-0.8
Totally Justified1.8%2.5%-0.7
The Mizen Queen1.6%2.5%-1.0
Resolve1.5%2.5%-1.0
🌧️ Off-track: 1911536
🎯 Longshots: 1375468102119
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #9, #11, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
Algo 1 (Weighted Rating) at Santa Anita Park — average winning payout

What a $2 win bet returned WHEN THE PICK WON. 311 graded races at Santa Anita Park, 2026-04-02 to 2026-09-27.

$0$2$4$5$7Our top pick: $5.74 from 93 racesOur top pick$5.74Morning-line favourite: $4.67 from 108 racesMorning-line favourite$4.67

This is the size of a winning payout, not a measure of profit — a pick that wins less often at a longer price can average more per winner and still lose money over the month. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupAverage payoutWinners
Our top pick$5.7493
Morning-line favourite$4.67108
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:1Dream Seeker (3/1)
Place:4Bliksem (6/1)
Show:2Hoaxer (5/2)
Other contenders:6Federation (8/1), 7Et Al (20/1)
Rest of field:5Absolution (2/1), 3Schooner (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 142765
🎯 Longshots: 1237645
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Grade 3 Stake · Purse $100,000
Win:5Toaster (6/5)
Place:1Thermal (2/1)
Show:4Paradise City (7/2)
Other contenders:3Our Moonlight (6/1), 2No Bad Beats (12/1)
Rest of field:6Rosie Jeeks (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 654213
🎯 Longshots: 512436
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Grade 2 Stake · Purse $200,000
Win:2Holmby (9/5)
Place:1Quattro Passi (5/2)
Show:4Free Closer (6/1)
Other contenders:6Deluge (8/5), 5Janie Not Jeanie (20/1)
Rest of field:3Domain Expansion (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 214635
🎯 Longshots: 216453
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:1King's Ride (5/1)
Place:4Owl (5/2)
Show:5Jetovator (5/1)
Other contenders:3Frank Bullitt (2/1), 8Pokerknightatvees (8/1), 2Mo Diamantes (10/1)
Rest of field:7Proof He Goes (12/1), 6Seaver Way (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 314578
🎯 Longshots: 34872156
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #5, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:2Angel's Ember (6/5)
Place:4Empire Of Ash (8/1)
Show:1Morning Glass (6/1)
Other contenders:5D's Four Thumbs Up (7/2), 3Smokem Thirsty (12/1), 6Love Doctor (8/1)
Rest of field:9High Hull Gill (12/1), 8Olympian Thirst (30/1), 7Fully Favorable (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 241536
🎯 Longshots: 245136987
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $100,000
Win:2Omaha Spirit (8/5)
Place:6Arctic Wolf (2/1)
Show:7Off In The Corner (5/2)
Other contenders:5Belleza Latina (12/1), 3High Pronto (10/1)
Rest of field:4Study Session (15/1), 1Fumano's Fire (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 267534
🎯 Longshots: 2637451
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $300,000
Win:2Hughes (4/5)
Place:4Imperial Honor (9/5)
Show:1Dang Son (12/1)
Other contenders:6Domus (8/1), 5Emancipate (10/1)
Rest of field:3Net Par (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 246531
🎯 Longshots: 246135
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:2Disko Tribute (6/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:5Moment Of Valor (4/1)
Show:4Ballyvaughan Gig (9/2)
Other contenders:7Got'm Cot'm (3/1), 3Courtside Action (4/1), 6Rodrigoknows (8/1)
Rest of field:1Speed Of Elon (30/1), 8Check's On The Way (20/1), 9Saul Elliott (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 125347
🎯 Longshots: 795638421
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #4, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:5Tashie (2/1)
Place:8Beautiful Dawn (7/5)
Show:7Breakaway Babe (12/1)
Other contenders:6Stay Bossy (5/1), 2Strident Miss (30/1), 3You Trust Me (20/1)
Rest of field:9Manee (8/1), 4Caps D'oro (20/1), 1Glorys Morning (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 587692
🎯 Longshots: 587392641
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #8, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/4 Miles · Turf · Grade 2 Stake · Purse $200,000
Win:1Thought Process (4/5)
Place:9May Day Ready (5/1)
Show:7Hey Jessie (10/1)
Other contenders:5Public Assembly (15/1), 3Dona Clota (15/1), 2Resolve (30/1), 11Vronti (6/1)
Rest of field:4Totally Justified (30/1), 6Kentucky Gal (20/1), 8Victorious Dream (20/1), 10The Mizen Queen (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1953211
🎯 Longshots: 1375468102119
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #9, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the CatBoost-ordered straight exacta ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #1 over #2 ($1 straight; box #1-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #1, #2, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #5 over #1 ($1 straight; box #5-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #1, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #2 over #1 ($1 straight; box #2-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #1, #6, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #3, #1, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #2 over #5 ($1 straight; box #2-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #4, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #2 over #6 ($1 straight; box #2-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #2, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #2 over #4 ($1 straight; box #2-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #4, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #7 over #5 ($1 straight; box #7-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #7, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #5 over #8 ($1 straight; box #5-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #5, #7, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 10AI Exacta: #1 over #9 ($1 straight; box #1-#9 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #9, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.42 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.88 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
92Strident Miss30/1—4.7%+44.2%0.37%$0.37
104Totally Justified30/1—4.6%+42.5%0.35%$0.35
93You Trust Me20/1—6.5%+35.4%0.44%$0.44
106Kentucky Gal20/1—5.9%+24.1%0.30%$0.30
105Public Assembly15/1—7.3%+16.2%0.27%$0.27
108Victorious Dream20/1—5.4%+12.7%0.16%$0.16
102Resolve30/1—3.5%+9.6%0.08%$0.08
TOTAL across 7 plays:2.0%$1.97
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:5Absolution (2/1)
Place:2Hoaxer (5/2)
Show:1Dream Seeker (3/1)
Other contenders:4Bliksem (6/1), 7Et Al (20/1)
Rest of field:6Federation (8/1), 3Schooner (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 521476
🎯 Longshots: 1237645
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Grade 3 Stake · Purse $100,000
Win:5Toaster (6/5)
Place:1Thermal (2/1)
Show:4Paradise City (7/2)
Other contenders:3Our Moonlight (6/1), 2No Bad Beats (12/1)
Rest of field:6Rosie Jeeks (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 564123
🎯 Longshots: 512436
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Grade 2 Stake · Purse $200,000
Win:2Holmby (9/5)
Place:6Deluge (8/5)
Show:1Quattro Passi (5/2)
Other contenders:4Free Closer (6/1), 5Janie Not Jeanie (20/1)
Rest of field:3Domain Expansion (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 261435
🎯 Longshots: 216453
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #6, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:3Frank Bullitt (2/1)
Place:4Owl (5/2)
Show:1King's Ride (5/1)
Other contenders:8Pokerknightatvees (8/1), 5Jetovator (5/1), 7Proof He Goes (12/1)
Rest of field:2Mo Diamantes (10/1), 6Seaver Way (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 341785
🎯 Longshots: 34872156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:2Angel's Ember (6/5)
Place:5D's Four Thumbs Up (7/2)
Show:4Empire Of Ash (8/1)
Other contenders:1Morning Glass (6/1), 6Love Doctor (8/1), 3Smokem Thirsty (12/1)
Rest of field:9High Hull Gill (12/1), 8Olympian Thirst (30/1), 7Fully Favorable (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 254163
🎯 Longshots: 245136987
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $100,000
Win:5Belleza Latina (12/1)
Place:6Arctic Wolf (2/1)
Show:2Omaha Spirit (8/5)
Other contenders:7Off In The Corner (5/2), 3High Pronto (10/1)
Rest of field:1Fumano's Fire (30/1), 4Study Session (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 562731
🎯 Longshots: 2637451
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #6, #2, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $300,000
Win:2Hughes (4/5)
Place:4Imperial Honor (9/5)
Show:5Emancipate (10/1)
Other contenders:6Domus (8/1), 1Dang Son (12/1)
Rest of field:3Net Par (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 245631
🎯 Longshots: 246135
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:2Disko Tribute (6/1)
Place:7Got'm Cot'm (3/1)
Show:4Ballyvaughan Gig (9/2)
Other contenders:5Moment Of Valor (4/1), 3Courtside Action (4/1), 6Rodrigoknows (8/1)
Rest of field:9Saul Elliott (8/1), 8Check's On The Way (20/1), 1Speed Of Elon (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 123574
🎯 Longshots: 795638421
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:8Beautiful Dawn (7/5)
Place:5Tashie (2/1)
Show:6Stay Bossy (5/1)
Other contenders:7Breakaway Babe (12/1), 3You Trust Me (20/1), 9Manee (8/1)
Rest of field:4Caps D'oro (20/1), 2Strident Miss (30/1), 1Glorys Morning (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 856793
🎯 Longshots: 587392641
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/4 Miles · Turf · Grade 2 Stake · Purse $200,000
Win:1Thought Process (4/5)
Place:9May Day Ready (5/1)
Show:5Public Assembly (15/1)
Other contenders:7Hey Jessie (10/1), 11Vronti (6/1), 3Dona Clota (15/1), 6Kentucky Gal (20/1)
Rest of field:8Victorious Dream (20/1), 4Totally Justified (30/1), 2Resolve (30/1), 10The Mizen Queen (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1951136
🎯 Longshots: 1375468102119
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #9, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  1 Miles · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:4Bliksem (6/1)
Place:1Dream Seeker (3/1)
Show:2Hoaxer (5/2)
Other contenders:5Absolution (2/1), 6Federation (8/1)
Rest of field:7Et Al (20/1), 3Schooner (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 412576
🎯 Longshots: 1237645
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Grade 3 Stake · Purse $100,000
Win:5Toaster (6/5)
Place:1Thermal (2/1)
Show:4Paradise City (7/2)
Other contenders:3Our Moonlight (6/1), 2No Bad Beats (12/1)
Rest of field:6Rosie Jeeks (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 654123
🎯 Longshots: 512436
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #1, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Grade 2 Stake · Purse $200,000
Win:2Holmby (9/5)
Place:1Quattro Passi (5/2)
Show:6Deluge (8/5)
Other contenders:4Free Closer (6/1), 3Domain Expansion (20/1)
Rest of field:5Janie Not Jeanie (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 216435
🎯 Longshots: 216453
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:4Owl (5/2)
Place:3Frank Bullitt (2/1)
Show:1King's Ride (5/1)
Other contenders:8Pokerknightatvees (8/1), 5Jetovator (5/1), 7Proof He Goes (12/1)
Rest of field:2Mo Diamantes (10/1), 6Seaver Way (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 314785
🎯 Longshots: 34872156
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $65,000
Win:2Angel's Ember (6/5)
Place:4Empire Of Ash (8/1)
Show:5D's Four Thumbs Up (7/2)
Other contenders:1Morning Glass (6/1), 6Love Doctor (8/1), 3Smokem Thirsty (12/1)
Rest of field:9High Hull Gill (12/1), 8Olympian Thirst (30/1), 7Fully Favorable (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 245163
🎯 Longshots: 245136987
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 Furlongs · Turf · Nongraded Stake · Purse $100,000
Win:6Arctic Wolf (2/1)
Place:2Omaha Spirit (8/5)
Show:7Off In The Corner (5/2)
Other contenders:5Belleza Latina (12/1), 3High Pronto (10/1)
Rest of field:4Study Session (15/1), 1Fumano's Fire (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 627534
🎯 Longshots: 2637451
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Grade 1 Stake · Purse $300,000
Win:2Hughes (4/5)
Place:4Imperial Honor (9/5)
Show:1Dang Son (12/1)
Other contenders:5Emancipate (10/1), 3Net Par (12/1)
Rest of field:6Domus (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 245361
🎯 Longshots: 246135
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:5Moment Of Valor (4/1)
Place:7Got'm Cot'm (3/1)
Show:2Disko Tribute (6/1)
Other contenders:4Ballyvaughan Gig (9/2), 6Rodrigoknows (8/1), 3Courtside Action (4/1)
Rest of field:9Saul Elliott (8/1), 8Check's On The Way (20/1), 1Speed Of Elon (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 153274
🎯 Longshots: 795638421
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $67,000
Win:8Beautiful Dawn (7/5)
Place:5Tashie (2/1)
Show:7Breakaway Babe (12/1)
Other contenders:6Stay Bossy (5/1), 3You Trust Me (20/1), 2Strident Miss (30/1)
Rest of field:9Manee (8/1), 4Caps D'oro (20/1), 1Glorys Morning (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 857639
🎯 Longshots: 587392641
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #5, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  1 1/4 Miles · Turf · Grade 2 Stake · Purse $200,000
Win:1Thought Process (4/5)
Place:9May Day Ready (5/1)
Show:7Hey Jessie (10/1)
Other contenders:5Public Assembly (15/1), 3Dona Clota (15/1), 11Vronti (6/1), 4Totally Justified (30/1)
Rest of field:2Resolve (30/1), 6Kentucky Gal (20/1), 8Victorious Dream (20/1), 10The Mizen Queen (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1953114
🎯 Longshots: 1375468102119
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #9, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #5,#2,#1 (69%) / R2: #5,#4 (63%) / R3: #6,#2 (65%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #5,#4 (63%) / R3: #6,#2 (65%) / R4: #3,#4,#5 (60%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #2,#5,#1 (63%) / R6: #2,#7,#6 (82%) / R7: #2,#4 (76%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 40%
Pick 3 R7-9R7: #2,#4 (76%) / R8: #7,#5,#3 (49%) / R9: #8,#5 (63%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 23%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #5,#2,#1 (69%) / R2: #5,#4 (63%) / R3: #6,#2 (65%) / R4: #3,#4,#5 (60%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 17%
Pick 4 R6-9R6: #2,#7,#6 (82%) / R7: #2,#4 (76%) / R8: #7,#5,#3 (49%) / R9: #8,#5 (63%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ABSOLUTIONANGEL'S EMBERARCTIC WOLFBALLYVAUGHAN GIGBEAUTIFUL DAWN
BLIKSEMBREAKAWAY BABECAPS D'OROCHECK'S ON THE WAYCOURTSIDE ACTION
DANG SONDELUGEDISKO TRIBUTEDOMAIN EXPANSIONDOMUS
DREAM SEEKEREMANCIPATEEMPIRE OF ASHET ALFEDERATION
FREE CLOSERFULLY FAVORABLEFUMANO'S FIREGLORYS MORNINGGOT'M COT'M
HIGH HULL GILLHIGH PRONTOHOAXERHOLMBYHUGHES
JANIE NOT JEANIEJETOVATORKENTUCKY GALKING'S RIDELOVE DOCTOR
MAY DAY READYMO DIAMANTESMOMENT OF VALORMORNING GLASSNET PAR
OFF IN THE CORNEROLYMPIAN THIRSTOMAHA SPIRITOUR MOONLIGHTOWL
POKERKNIGHTATVEESPROOF HE GOESPUBLIC ASSEMBLYQUATTRO PASSIRESOLVE
ROSIE JEEKSSAUL ELLIOTTSCHOONERSEAVER WAYSMOKEM THIRSTY
STAY BOSSYSTRIDENT MISSSTUDY SESSIONTASHIETHE MIZEN QUEEN
THOUGHT PROCESSTOASTERTOTALLY JUSTIFIEDVICTORIOUS DREAMVRONTI

 


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