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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Woodbine, November 8, 2026

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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $42,100
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Napa Spirit (2/1)
Place:2Arabian Prince (3/1)
Show:1Forester's Fortune (5/2)
Other contenders:5Roi Soleil (6/1), 4Total Sensation (10/1)
Rest of field:7Little Red Domi (8/1), 6Tiger Town (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 312574
🎯 Longshots: 3472156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $61,200
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Fracen Macho (8/5)
Place:7Bachelor Pad (9/5)
Show:4Gilt Edge (5/1)
Other contenders:2Summer Commander (10/1), 6Perfect Crime (6/1)
Rest of field:3Caught Speeding (12/1), 1Unique Power (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 574263
🎯 Longshots: 5732461
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $125,000
◆ Strong spot — a six-horse field: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Verge (2/1)
Place:2Groovinharmony (5/2)
Show:5Morrisseau (7/2)
Other contenders:4Traction Park (9/2), 3Barger (6/1)
Rest of field:6Peace Mission (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 125436
🎯 Longshots: 125643
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:1Sign The Papers (8/5)
Place:2Final Script (7/2)
Show:3Tailgate (5/2)
Other contenders:7Written Record (8/1), 6Motion N Mischief (6/1)
Rest of field:5Big Tuna (10/1), 4G Note Jeff (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 123765
🎯 Longshots: 1326754
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700
Win:2Flaxon Falcon (5/2)
Place:7Merckx (2/1)
Show:5Son Of A Darby (7/2)
Other contenders:8It Wasn't A Bluff (10/1), 6King Kadooment (6/1), 3Silent Explosion (8/1)
Rest of field:1Worthy Park (20/1), 4Brass Serenade (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 275683
🎯 Longshots: 25783146
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $69,500
Win:3Philip Banks (4/5)
Place:4Zio Cavallo (7/2)
Show:5Carnew (8/1)
Other contenders:7Tiho Srce (5/1), 1Urban Legend (12/1)
Rest of field:2Foxtrotanna (10/1), 6Glasweigian (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 347512
🎯 Longshots: 3542167
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $125,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Dazzling Cruiser (3/1)
Place:1Just Magnificent (7/2)
Show:3Z Train (9/2)
Other contenders:5Zo Zucchera (6/1), 4Little Lola (8/1), 7Keytothepark (10/1)
Rest of field:9Loveumissumeanit (12/1), 2Retail Therapist (10/1), 8I've Got The Honey (15/1), 10Periwinkle (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 613547
🎯 Longshots: 61983274510
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $57,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
Win:1May And June (3/1)
Place:6Speights Will (2/1)
Show:3Timeframe (7/2)
Other contenders:2Well Lit (8/1), 4Cajun Influence (12/1), 5Frankness (6/1)
Rest of field:8Eubank (12/1), 7Knowing (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 613254
🎯 Longshots: 42613875
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:6Katherine's Cub (2/1)
Place:2Laker (4/1)
Show:4Live Each Day (3/1)
Other contenders:3Morerita (8/1), 7Golden Sunset (6/1), 5Headspin (10/1)
Rest of field:8Whynotmarigold (10/1), 1Lita Marie (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 642375
🎯 Longshots: 62435871
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $42,100
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:7Sheshimaintenance (7/5)
Place:2Cotton (5/2)
Show:5Classic Dancer (6/1)
Other contenders:8Grande Soiree (8/1), 9Uncaptured Moment (10/1), 3Vamos Viejo (12/1)
Rest of field:1Always A Way (20/1), 6Master Spy (15/1), 4Interim Analysis (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 725893
🎯 Longshots: 732981546
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 11  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:6Lean Music Machine (7/2)
Place:3Silver Raleigh (3/1)
Show:8Isaac Leo (4/1)
Other contenders:9Go Giffen (9/2), 4Mac Gowan (10/1), 7Draw Boot (6/1)
Rest of field:2Ride For The Purse (12/1), 5Tutti Contenti (12/1), 1Worry Less (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 638947
🎯 Longshots: 426931587
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #8, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $42,100
Win:2Arabian Prince (3/1) 26% · fair 3-1
Place:3Napa Spirit (2/1) 24% · fair 3-1 underlay -38%
Show:1Forester's Fortune (5/2) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -53%
Other contenders:5Roi Soleil (6/1) 14% · fair 6-1, 7Little Red Domi (8/1) 9% · fair 19-2
Rest of field:4Total Sensation (10/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 6Tiger Town (15/1) 2% · fair 51-1 underlay -71%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Arabian Prince — 26.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Arabian Prince26.2% ◀Napa Spirit — 23.8% win probability, morning line 2/1Napa Spirit23.8%Forester'S Fortune — 15.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Forester'S Fortune15.7%Roi Soleil — 14.2% win probability, morning line 6/1Roi Soleil14.2%Little Red Domi — 9.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Little Red Domi9.5%Total Sensation — 8.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Total Sensation8.7%Tiger Town — 1.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Tiger Town1.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Arabian Prince26.2%3/1
Napa Spirit23.8%2/1
Forester'S Fortune15.7%2.5/1
Roi Soleil14.2%6/1
Little Red Domi9.5%8/1
Total Sensation8.7%10/1
Tiger Town1.9%15/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherArabian Prince: model 26.2% vs market 19.6% (+6.7 points)Arabian Prince+6.7Napa Spirit: model 23.8% vs market 26.1% (-2.3 points)Napa Spirit-2.3Forester'S Fortune: model 15.7% vs market 22.4% (-6.7 points)Forester'S Fortune-6.7Roi Soleil: model 14.2% vs market 11.2% (+3.0 points)Roi Soleil+3.0Little Red Domi: model 9.5% vs market 8.7% (+0.7 points)Little Red Domi+0.7Total Sensation: model 8.7% vs market 7.1% (+1.6 points)Total Sensation+1.6Tiger Town: model 1.9% vs market 4.9% (-3.0 points)Tiger Town-3.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Arabian Prince26.2%19.6%+6.7
Napa Spirit23.8%26.1%-2.3
Forester'S Fortune15.7%22.4%-6.7
Roi Soleil14.2%11.2%+3.0
Little Red Domi9.5%8.7%+0.7
Total Sensation8.7%7.1%+1.6
Tiger Town1.9%4.9%-3.0
🌧️ Off-track: 321574
🎯 Longshots: 3472156
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $61,200
Win:5Fracen Macho (8/5) 34% · fair 2-1
Place:7Bachelor Pad (9/5) 24% · fair 3-1 underlay -45%
Show:4Gilt Edge (5/1) 16% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:6Perfect Crime (6/1) 9% · fair 10-1 underlay -39%, 2Summer Commander (10/1) 9% · fair 21-2
Rest of field:3Caught Speeding (12/1) 6% · fair 31-2, 1Unique Power (20/1) 2% · fair 42-1 underlay -52%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Fracen Macho — 33.8% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Fracen Macho33.8% ◀Bachelor Pad — 23.5% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Bachelor Pad23.5%Gilt Edge — 16.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Gilt Edge16.3%Perfect Crime — 9.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Perfect Crime9.3%Summer Commander — 8.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Summer Commander8.6%Caught Speeding — 6.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Caught Speeding6.1%Unique Power — 2.3% win probability, morning line 20/1Unique Power2.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Fracen Macho33.8%1.6/1
Bachelor Pad23.5%1.8/1
Gilt Edge16.3%5/1
Perfect Crime9.3%6/1
Summer Commander8.6%10/1
Caught Speeding6.1%12/1
Unique Power2.3%20/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherFracen Macho: model 33.8% vs market 30.4% (+3.4 points)Fracen Macho+3.4Bachelor Pad: model 23.5% vs market 28.2% (-4.6 points)Bachelor Pad-4.6Gilt Edge: model 16.3% vs market 13.2% (+3.2 points)Gilt Edge+3.2Perfect Crime: model 9.3% vs market 11.3% (-2.0 points)Perfect Crime-2.0Summer Commander: model 8.6% vs market 7.2% (+1.5 points)Summer Commander+1.5Caught Speeding: model 6.1% vs market 6.1% (+0.0 points)Caught Speeding+0.0Unique Power: model 2.3% vs market 3.8% (-1.4 points)Unique Power-1.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Fracen Macho33.8%30.4%+3.4
Bachelor Pad23.5%28.2%-4.6
Gilt Edge16.3%13.2%+3.2
Perfect Crime9.3%11.3%-2.0
Summer Commander8.6%7.2%+1.5
Caught Speeding6.1%6.1%+0.0
Unique Power2.3%3.8%-1.4
🌧️ Off-track: 574623
🎯 Longshots: 5732461
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $125,000
Win:1Verge (2/1) 29% · fair 5-2
Place:2Groovinharmony (5/2) 23% · fair 7-2
Show:5Morrisseau (7/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:4Traction Park (9/2) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -34%, 3Barger (6/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -31%
Rest of field:6Peace Mission (8/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -62%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Verge — 29.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Verge29.1% ◀Groovinharmony — 23.3% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Groovinharmony23.3%Morrisseau — 20.1% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Morrisseau20.1%Traction Park — 12.7% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Traction Park12.7%Barger — 10.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Barger10.3%Peace Mission — 4.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Peace Mission4.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Verge29.1%2/1
Groovinharmony23.3%2.5/1
Morrisseau20.1%3.5/1
Traction Park12.7%4.5/1
Barger10.3%6/1
Peace Mission4.5%8/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherVerge: model 29.1% vs market 26.1% (+3.0 points)Verge+3.0Groovinharmony: model 23.3% vs market 22.4% (+0.9 points)Groovinharmony+0.9Morrisseau: model 20.1% vs market 17.4% (+2.7 points)Morrisseau+2.7Traction Park: model 12.7% vs market 14.2% (-1.5 points)Traction Park-1.5Barger: model 10.3% vs market 11.2% (-0.9 points)Barger-0.9Peace Mission: model 4.5% vs market 8.7% (-4.2 points)Peace Mission-4.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Verge29.1%26.1%+3.0
Groovinharmony23.3%22.4%+0.9
Morrisseau20.1%17.4%+2.7
Traction Park12.7%14.2%-1.5
Barger10.3%11.2%-0.9
Peace Mission4.5%8.7%-4.2
🌧️ Off-track: 125436
🎯 Longshots: 125643
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:1Sign The Papers (8/5) 58% · fair 4-5 overlay +120%
Place:7Written Record (8/1) 21% · fair 4-1 overlay +106%
Show:2Final Script (7/2) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -74%
Other contenders:3Tailgate (5/2) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -86%, 6Motion N Mischief (6/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -73%
Rest of field:5Big Tuna (10/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -61%, 4G Note Jeff (20/1) 1% · fair 135-2 underlay -70%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Sign The Papers — 57.9% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Sign The Papers57.9% ◀Written Record — 20.5% win probability, morning line 8/1Written Record20.5%Final Script — 6.8% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Final Script6.8%Tailgate — 5.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Tailgate5.2%Motion N Mischief — 4.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Motion N Mischief4.3%Big Tuna — 3.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Big Tuna3.7%G Note Jeff — 1.5% win probability, morning line 20/1G Note Jeff1.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Sign The Papers57.9%1.6/1
Written Record20.5%8/1
Final Script6.8%3.5/1
Tailgate5.2%2.5/1
Motion N Mischief4.3%6/1
Big Tuna3.7%10/1
G Note Jeff1.5%20/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSign The Papers: model 57.9% vs market 29.9% (+28.0 points)Sign The Papers+28.0Written Record: model 20.5% vs market 8.6% (+11.9 points)Written Record+11.9Final Script: model 6.8% vs market 17.3% (-10.5 points)Final Script-10.5Tailgate: model 5.2% vs market 22.2% (-17.0 points)Tailgate-17.0Motion N Mischief: model 4.3% vs market 11.1% (-6.8 points)Motion N Mischief-6.8Big Tuna: model 3.7% vs market 7.1% (-3.4 points)Big Tuna-3.4G Note Jeff: model 1.5% vs market 3.7% (-2.2 points)G Note Jeff-2.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Sign The Papers57.9%29.9%+28.0
Written Record20.5%8.6%+11.9
Final Script6.8%17.3%-10.5
Tailgate5.2%22.2%-17.0
Motion N Mischief4.3%11.1%-6.8
Big Tuna3.7%7.1%-3.4
G Note Jeff1.5%3.7%-2.2
🌧️ Off-track: 132765
🎯 Longshots: 1326754
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700
Win:2Flaxon Falcon (5/2) 41% · fair 3-2 overlay +72%
Place:7Merckx (2/1) 25% · fair 3-1 underlay -33%
Show:8It Wasn't A Bluff (10/1) 9% · fair 10-1
Other contenders:3Silent Explosion (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -44%, 6King Kadooment (6/1) 6% · fair 29-2 underlay -59%, 1Worthy Park (20/1) 4% · fair 43-2
Rest of field:5Son Of A Darby (7/2) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -84%, 4Brass Serenade (12/1) 3% · fair 31-1 underlay -61%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Flaxon Falcon — 40.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Flaxon Falcon40.7% ◀Merckx — 25.2% win probability, morning line 2/1Merckx25.2%It Wasn'T A Bluff — 9.2% win probability, morning line 10/1It Wasn'T A Bluff9.2%Silent Explosion — 6.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Silent Explosion6.6%King Kadooment — 6.4% win probability, morning line 6/1King Kadooment6.4%Worthy Park — 4.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Worthy Park4.4%Son Of A Darby — 4.3% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Son Of A Darby4.3%Brass Serenade — 3.1% win probability, morning line 12/1Brass Serenade3.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Flaxon Falcon40.7%2.5/1
Merckx25.2%2/1
It Wasn'T A Bluff9.2%10/1
Silent Explosion6.6%8/1
King Kadooment6.4%6/1
Worthy Park4.4%20/1
Son Of A Darby4.3%3.5/1
Brass Serenade3.1%12/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherFlaxon Falcon: model 40.7% vs market 21.8% (+18.9 points)Flaxon Falcon+18.9Merckx: model 25.2% vs market 25.4% (-0.2 points)Merckx-0.2It Wasn'T A Bluff: model 9.2% vs market 6.9% (+2.3 points)It Wasn'T A Bluff+2.3Silent Explosion: model 6.6% vs market 8.5% (-1.9 points)Silent Explosion-1.9King Kadooment: model 6.4% vs market 10.9% (-4.5 points)King Kadooment-4.5Worthy Park: model 4.4% vs market 3.6% (+0.8 points)Worthy Park+0.8Son Of A Darby: model 4.3% vs market 17.0% (-12.6 points)Son Of A Darby-12.6Brass Serenade: model 3.1% vs market 5.9% (-2.7 points)Brass Serenade-2.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Flaxon Falcon40.7%21.8%+18.9
Merckx25.2%25.4%-0.2
It Wasn'T A Bluff9.2%6.9%+2.3
Silent Explosion6.6%8.5%-1.9
King Kadooment6.4%10.9%-4.5
Worthy Park4.4%3.6%+0.8
Son Of A Darby4.3%17.0%-12.6
Brass Serenade3.1%5.9%-2.7
🌧️ Off-track: 275638
🎯 Longshots: 25783146
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #8, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $69,500
Win:3Philip Banks (4/5) 39% · fair 3-2 underlay -49%
Place:4Zio Cavallo (7/2) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -35%
Show:7Tiho Srce (5/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -35%
Other contenders:2Foxtrotanna (10/1) 10% · fair 17-2, 5Carnew (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1
Rest of field:1Urban Legend (12/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 6Glasweigian (15/1) 4% · fair 43-2 underlay -30%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Philip Banks — 38.9% win probability, morning line 0.8/1Philip Banks38.9% ◀Zio Cavallo — 15.7% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Zio Cavallo15.7%Tiho Srce — 11.6% win probability, morning line 5/1Tiho Srce11.6%Foxtrotanna — 10.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Foxtrotanna10.4%Carnew — 10.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Carnew10.2%Urban Legend — 8.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Urban Legend8.7%Glasweigian — 4.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Glasweigian4.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Philip Banks38.9%0.8/1
Zio Cavallo15.7%3.5/1
Tiho Srce11.6%5/1
Foxtrotanna10.4%10/1
Carnew10.2%8/1
Urban Legend8.7%12/1
Glasweigian4.5%15/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherPhilip Banks: model 38.9% vs market 43.2% (-4.3 points)Philip Banks-4.3Zio Cavallo: model 15.7% vs market 17.3% (-1.6 points)Zio Cavallo-1.6Tiho Srce: model 11.6% vs market 13.0% (-1.4 points)Tiho Srce-1.4Foxtrotanna: model 10.4% vs market 7.1% (+3.3 points)Foxtrotanna+3.3Carnew: model 10.2% vs market 8.6% (+1.6 points)Carnew+1.6Urban Legend: model 8.7% vs market 6.0% (+2.8 points)Urban Legend+2.8Glasweigian: model 4.5% vs market 4.9% (-0.4 points)Glasweigian-0.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Philip Banks38.9%43.2%-4.3
Zio Cavallo15.7%17.3%-1.6
Tiho Srce11.6%13.0%-1.4
Foxtrotanna10.4%7.1%+3.3
Carnew10.2%8.6%+1.6
Urban Legend8.7%6.0%+2.8
Glasweigian4.5%4.9%-0.4
🌧️ Off-track: 347521
🎯 Longshots: 3542167
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $125,000
Win:6Dazzling Cruiser (3/1) 27% · fair 5-2
Place:1Just Magnificent (7/2) 21% · fair 7-2
Show:3Z Train (9/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -27%
Other contenders:5Zo Zucchera (6/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -48%, 9Loveumissumeanit (12/1) 7% · fair 14-1, 7Keytothepark (10/1) 7% · fair 29-2 underlay -30%
Rest of field:4Little Lola (8/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -54%, 2Retail Therapist (10/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -46%, 8I've Got The Honey (15/1) 4% · fair 22-1 underlay -32%, 10Periwinkle (20/1) 2% · fair 52-1 underlay -62%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Dazzling Cruiser — 26.9% win probability, morning line 3/1Dazzling Cruiser26.9% ◀Just Magnificent — 21.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Just Magnificent21.2%Z Train — 13.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Z Train13.9%Zo Zucchera — 8.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Zo Zucchera8.0%Loveumissumeanit — 6.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Loveumissumeanit6.7%Keytothepark — 6.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Keytothepark6.5%Little Lola — 5.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Little Lola5.4%Retail Therapist — 5.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Retail Therapist5.1%I'Ve Got The Honey — 4.4% win probability, morning line 15/1I'Ve Got The Honey4.4%Periwinkle — 1.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Periwinkle1.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Dazzling Cruiser26.9%3/1
Just Magnificent21.2%3.5/1
Z Train13.9%4.5/1
Zo Zucchera8.0%6/1
Loveumissumeanit6.7%12/1
Keytothepark6.5%10/1
Little Lola5.4%8/1
Retail Therapist5.1%10/1
I'Ve Got The Honey4.4%15/1
Periwinkle1.9%20/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDazzling Cruiser: model 26.9% vs market 19.6% (+7.3 points)Dazzling Cruiser+7.3Just Magnificent: model 21.2% vs market 17.4% (+3.8 points)Just Magnificent+3.8Z Train: model 13.9% vs market 14.2% (-0.3 points)Z Train-0.3Zo Zucchera: model 8.0% vs market 11.2% (-3.2 points)Zo Zucchera-3.2Loveumissumeanit: model 6.7% vs market 6.0% (+0.7 points)Loveumissumeanit+0.7Keytothepark: model 6.5% vs market 7.1% (-0.6 points)Keytothepark-0.6Little Lola: model 5.4% vs market 8.7% (-3.3 points)Little Lola-3.3Retail Therapist: model 5.1% vs market 7.1% (-2.0 points)Retail Therapist-2.0I'Ve Got The Honey: model 4.4% vs market 4.9% (-0.5 points)I'Ve Got The Honey-0.5Periwinkle: model 1.9% vs market 3.7% (-1.8 points)Periwinkle-1.8

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Dazzling Cruiser26.9%19.6%+7.3
Just Magnificent21.2%17.4%+3.8
Z Train13.9%14.2%-0.3
Zo Zucchera8.0%11.2%-3.2
Loveumissumeanit6.7%6.0%+0.7
Keytothepark6.5%7.1%-0.6
Little Lola5.4%8.7%-3.3
Retail Therapist5.1%7.1%-2.0
I'Ve Got The Honey4.4%4.9%-0.5
Periwinkle1.9%3.7%-1.8
🌧️ Off-track: 613547
🎯 Longshots: 61983274510
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $57,000
Win:1May And June (3/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Place:6Speights Will (2/1) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -43%
Show:3Timeframe (7/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -37%
Other contenders:2Well Lit (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 4Cajun Influence (12/1) 9% · fair 19-2, 5Frankness (6/1) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -38%
Rest of field:8Eubank (12/1) 8% · fair 11-1, 7Knowing (15/1) 3% · fair 65-2 underlay -54%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

May And June — 22.2% win probability, morning line 3/1May And June22.2% ◀Speights Will — 22.2% win probability, morning line 2/1Speights Will22.2%Timeframe — 15.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Timeframe15.2%Well Lit — 10.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Well Lit10.2%Cajun Influence — 9.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Cajun Influence9.4%Frankness — 9.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Frankness9.3%Eubank — 8.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Eubank8.4%Knowing — 3.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Knowing3.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
May And June22.2%3/1
Speights Will22.2%2/1
Timeframe15.2%3.5/1
Well Lit10.2%8/1
Cajun Influence9.4%12/1
Frankness9.3%6/1
Eubank8.4%12/1
Knowing3.0%15/1
🌧️ Off-track: 613524
🎯 Longshots: 42613875
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700
Win:6Katherine's Cub (2/1) 34% · fair 2-1
Place:3Morerita (8/1) 16% · fair 5-1 overlay +56%
Show:4Live Each Day (3/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -46%
Other contenders:2Laker (4/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -33%, 7Golden Sunset (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -44%, 5Headspin (10/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -33%
Rest of field:8Whynotmarigold (10/1) 4% · fair 26-1 underlay -62%, 1Lita Marie (20/1) 2% · fair 44-1 underlay -55%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Katherine'S Cub — 33.5% win probability, morning line 2/1Katherine'S Cub33.5% ◀Morerita — 16.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Morerita16.3%Live Each Day — 15.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Live Each Day15.2%Laker — 14.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Laker14.3%Golden Sunset — 8.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Golden Sunset8.6%Headspin — 6.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Headspin6.3%Whynotmarigold — 3.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Whynotmarigold3.7%Lita Marie — 2.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Lita Marie2.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Katherine'S Cub33.5%2/1
Morerita16.3%8/1
Live Each Day15.2%3/1
Laker14.3%4/1
Golden Sunset8.6%6/1
Headspin6.3%10/1
Whynotmarigold3.7%10/1
Lita Marie2.2%20/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherKatherine'S Cub: model 33.5% vs market 26.3% (+7.2 points)Katherine'S Cub+7.2Morerita: model 16.3% vs market 8.8% (+7.5 points)Morerita+7.5Live Each Day: model 15.2% vs market 19.7% (-4.6 points)Live Each Day-4.6Laker: model 14.3% vs market 15.8% (-1.5 points)Laker-1.5Golden Sunset: model 8.6% vs market 11.3% (-2.7 points)Golden Sunset-2.7Headspin: model 6.3% vs market 7.2% (-0.9 points)Headspin-0.9Whynotmarigold: model 3.7% vs market 7.2% (-3.5 points)Whynotmarigold-3.5Lita Marie: model 2.2% vs market 3.8% (-1.5 points)Lita Marie-1.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Katherine'S Cub33.5%26.3%+7.2
Morerita16.3%8.8%+7.5
Live Each Day15.2%19.7%-4.6
Laker14.3%15.8%-1.5
Golden Sunset8.6%11.3%-2.7
Headspin6.3%7.2%-0.9
Whynotmarigold3.7%7.2%-3.5
Lita Marie2.2%3.8%-1.5
🌧️ Off-track: 642375
🎯 Longshots: 62435871
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $42,100
Win:7Sheshimaintenance (7/5) 35% · fair 2-1
Place:2Cotton (5/2) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -27%
Show:5Classic Dancer (6/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -30%
Other contenders:8Grande Soiree (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1, 3Vamos Viejo (12/1) 7% · fair 27-2, 9Uncaptured Moment (10/1) 6% · fair 31-2 underlay -36%
Rest of field:1Always A Way (20/1) 4% · fair 53-2, 4Interim Analysis (20/1) 3% · fair 37-1 underlay -46%, 6Master Spy (15/1) 3% · fair 38-1 underlay -60%
Race 10 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Sheshimaintenance — 35.1% win probability, morning line 1.4/1Sheshimaintenance35.1% ◀Cotton — 22.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Cotton22.6%Classic Dancer — 10.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Classic Dancer10.4%Grande Soiree — 10.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Grande Soiree10.1%Vamos Viejo — 6.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Vamos Viejo6.9%Uncaptured Moment — 6.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Uncaptured Moment6.1%Always A Way — 3.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Always A Way3.6%Interim Analysis — 2.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Interim Analysis2.6%Master Spy — 2.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Master Spy2.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Sheshimaintenance35.1%1.4/1
Cotton22.6%2.5/1
Classic Dancer10.4%6/1
Grande Soiree10.1%8/1
Vamos Viejo6.9%12/1
Uncaptured Moment6.1%10/1
Always A Way3.6%20/1
Interim Analysis2.6%20/1
Master Spy2.6%15/1
🌧️ Off-track: 725893
🎯 Longshots: 732981546
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 11  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300
Win:9Go Giffen (9/2) 16% · fair 11-2
Place:8Isaac Leo (4/1) 15% · fair 6-1 underlay -32%
Show:3Silver Raleigh (3/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -50%
Other contenders:6Lean Music Machine (7/2) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -48%, 7Draw Boot (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -29%, 4Mac Gowan (10/1) 10% · fair 9-1
Rest of field:2Ride For The Purse (12/1) 10% · fair 19-2 overlay +28%, 1Worry Less (12/1) 6% · fair 15-1, 5Tutti Contenti (12/1) 6% · fair 15-1
Race 11 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Go Giffen — 15.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Go Giffen15.6% ◀Isaac Leo — 14.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Isaac Leo14.6%Silver Raleigh — 14.4% win probability, morning line 3/1Silver Raleigh14.4%Lean Music Machine — 12.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Lean Music Machine12.9%Draw Boot — 10.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Draw Boot10.6%Mac Gowan — 10.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Mac Gowan10.0%Ride For The Purse — 9.6% win probability, morning line 12/1Ride For The Purse9.6%Worry Less — 6.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Worry Less6.2%Tutti Contenti — 6.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Tutti Contenti6.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Go Giffen15.6%4.5/1
Isaac Leo14.6%4/1
Silver Raleigh14.4%3/1
Lean Music Machine12.9%3.5/1
Draw Boot10.6%6/1
Mac Gowan10.0%10/1
Ride For The Purse9.6%12/1
Worry Less6.2%12/1
Tutti Contenti6.2%12/1
Race 11 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherGo Giffen: model 15.6% vs market 13.8% (+1.8 points)Go Giffen+1.8Isaac Leo: model 14.6% vs market 15.2% (-0.6 points)Isaac Leo-0.6Silver Raleigh: model 14.4% vs market 19.0% (-4.6 points)Silver Raleigh-4.6Lean Music Machine: model 12.9% vs market 16.9% (-4.0 points)Lean Music Machine-4.0Draw Boot: model 10.6% vs market 10.8% (-0.3 points)Draw Boot-0.3Mac Gowan: model 10.0% vs market 6.9% (+3.1 points)Mac Gowan+3.1Ride For The Purse: model 9.6% vs market 5.8% (+3.8 points)Ride For The Purse+3.8Worry Less: model 6.2% vs market 5.8% (+0.4 points)Worry Less+0.4Tutti Contenti: model 6.2% vs market 5.8% (+0.4 points)Tutti Contenti+0.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Go Giffen15.6%13.8%+1.8
Isaac Leo14.6%15.2%-0.6
Silver Raleigh14.4%19.0%-4.6
Lean Music Machine12.9%16.9%-4.0
Draw Boot10.6%10.8%-0.3
Mac Gowan10.0%6.9%+3.1
Ride For The Purse9.6%5.8%+3.8
Worry Less6.2%5.8%+0.4
Tutti Contenti6.2%5.8%+0.4
🌧️ Off-track: 398674
🎯 Longshots: 426931587
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #8, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $42,100
Win:3Napa Spirit (2/1)
Place:2Arabian Prince (3/1)
Show:1Forester's Fortune (5/2)
Other contenders:5Roi Soleil (6/1), 4Total Sensation (10/1)
Rest of field:7Little Red Domi (8/1), 6Tiger Town (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 312574
🎯 Longshots: 3472156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $61,200
Win:5Fracen Macho (8/5)
Place:7Bachelor Pad (9/5)
Show:4Gilt Edge (5/1)
Other contenders:2Summer Commander (10/1), 3Caught Speeding (12/1)
Rest of field:6Perfect Crime (6/1), 1Unique Power (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 574623
🎯 Longshots: 5732461
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $125,000
Win:2Groovinharmony (5/2)
Place:1Verge (2/1)
Show:4Traction Park (9/2)
Other contenders:5Morrisseau (7/2), 3Barger (6/1)
Rest of field:6Peace Mission (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 125436
🎯 Longshots: 125643
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:1Sign The Papers (8/5)
Place:7Written Record (8/1)
Show:3Tailgate (5/2)
Other contenders:2Final Script (7/2), 6Motion N Mischief (6/1)
Rest of field:5Big Tuna (10/1), 4G Note Jeff (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 132765
🎯 Longshots: 1326754
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700
Win:7Merckx (2/1)
Place:2Flaxon Falcon (5/2)
Show:5Son Of A Darby (7/2)
Other contenders:8It Wasn't A Bluff (10/1), 3Silent Explosion (8/1), 6King Kadooment (6/1)
Rest of field:1Worthy Park (20/1), 4Brass Serenade (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 725638
🎯 Longshots: 25783146
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $69,500
Win:3Philip Banks (4/5)
Place:4Zio Cavallo (7/2)
Show:5Carnew (8/1)
Other contenders:1Urban Legend (12/1), 2Foxtrotanna (10/1)
Rest of field:7Tiho Srce (5/1), 6Glasweigian (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 347512
🎯 Longshots: 3542167
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $125,000
Win:6Dazzling Cruiser (3/1)
Place:1Just Magnificent (7/2)
Show:3Z Train (9/2)
Other contenders:5Zo Zucchera (6/1), 8I've Got The Honey (15/1), 2Retail Therapist (10/1)
Rest of field:9Loveumissumeanit (12/1), 7Keytothepark (10/1), 4Little Lola (8/1), 10Periwinkle (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 613524
🎯 Longshots: 61983274510
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #3, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $57,000
Win:1May And June (3/1)
Place:6Speights Will (2/1)
Show:3Timeframe (7/2)
Other contenders:4Cajun Influence (12/1), 2Well Lit (8/1), 5Frankness (6/1)
Rest of field:8Eubank (12/1), 7Knowing (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 613524
🎯 Longshots: 42613875
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700
Win:6Katherine's Cub (2/1)
Place:4Live Each Day (3/1)
Show:2Laker (4/1)
Other contenders:3Morerita (8/1), 5Headspin (10/1), 7Golden Sunset (6/1)
Rest of field:8Whynotmarigold (10/1), 1Lita Marie (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 642735
🎯 Longshots: 62435871
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $42,100
Win:7Sheshimaintenance (7/5)
Place:2Cotton (5/2)
Show:9Uncaptured Moment (10/1)
Other contenders:5Classic Dancer (6/1), 3Vamos Viejo (12/1), 8Grande Soiree (8/1)
Rest of field:6Master Spy (15/1), 1Always A Way (20/1), 4Interim Analysis (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 725893
🎯 Longshots: 732981546
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #9, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 11  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300
Win:6Lean Music Machine (7/2)
Place:8Isaac Leo (4/1)
Show:3Silver Raleigh (3/1)
Other contenders:9Go Giffen (9/2), 4Mac Gowan (10/1), 2Ride For The Purse (12/1)
Rest of field:1Worry Less (12/1), 7Draw Boot (6/1), 5Tutti Contenti (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 638974
🎯 Longshots: 426931587
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #3, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #3 over #2 ($1 straight; box #3-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #2, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #5 over #7 ($1 straight; box #5-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #7, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #1 over #2 ($1 straight; box #1-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #1, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #1 over #3 ($1 straight; box #1-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #7, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #2 over #5 ($1 straight; box #2-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #2, #5, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #4, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #6 over #1 ($1 straight; box #6-#1 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #1, #5, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #1 over #6 ($1 straight; box #1-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #3, #6, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #6 over #4 ($1 straight; box #6-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #2, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 10AI Exacta: #7 over #2 ($1 straight; box #7-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #7, #9, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 11AI Exacta: #6 over #8 ($1 straight; box #6-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #8, #3, #9 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $42,100
Win:3Napa Spirit (2/1)
Place:2Arabian Prince (3/1)
Show:5Roi Soleil (6/1)
Other contenders:1Forester's Fortune (5/2), 7Little Red Domi (8/1)
Rest of field:4Total Sensation (10/1), 6Tiger Town (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 321574
🎯 Longshots: 3472156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $61,200
Win:7Bachelor Pad (9/5)
Place:5Fracen Macho (8/5)
Show:3Caught Speeding (12/1)
Other contenders:4Gilt Edge (5/1), 2Summer Commander (10/1)
Rest of field:6Perfect Crime (6/1), 1Unique Power (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 754632
🎯 Longshots: 5732461
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #5, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $125,000
Win:4Traction Park (9/2)
Place:1Verge (2/1)
Show:2Groovinharmony (5/2)
Other contenders:5Morrisseau (7/2), 3Barger (6/1)
Rest of field:6Peace Mission (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 124536
🎯 Longshots: 125643
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:1Sign The Papers (8/5)
Place:3Tailgate (5/2)
Show:7Written Record (8/1)
Other contenders:2Final Script (7/2), 6Motion N Mischief (6/1)
Rest of field:5Big Tuna (10/1), 4G Note Jeff (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 132765
🎯 Longshots: 1326754
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700
Win:7Merckx (2/1)
Place:2Flaxon Falcon (5/2)
Show:5Son Of A Darby (7/2)
Other contenders:6King Kadooment (6/1), 3Silent Explosion (8/1), 1Worthy Park (20/1)
Rest of field:8It Wasn't A Bluff (10/1), 4Brass Serenade (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 725638
🎯 Longshots: 25783146
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #5, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $69,500
Win:4Zio Cavallo (7/2)
Place:3Philip Banks (4/5)
Show:1Urban Legend (12/1)
Other contenders:5Carnew (8/1), 7Tiho Srce (5/1)
Rest of field:2Foxtrotanna (10/1), 6Glasweigian (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 347512
🎯 Longshots: 3542167
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #3, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $125,000
Win:9Loveumissumeanit (12/1)
Place:6Dazzling Cruiser (3/1)
Show:1Just Magnificent (7/2)
Other contenders:3Z Train (9/2), 5Zo Zucchera (6/1), 7Keytothepark (10/1)
Rest of field:2Retail Therapist (10/1), 8I've Got The Honey (15/1), 4Little Lola (8/1), 10Periwinkle (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 613597
🎯 Longshots: 61983274510
🎫 Trifecta play: #9 over #6, #1, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $57,000
Win:1May And June (3/1)
Place:6Speights Will (2/1)
Show:4Cajun Influence (12/1)
Other contenders:3Timeframe (7/2), 5Frankness (6/1), 8Eubank (12/1)
Rest of field:2Well Lit (8/1), 7Knowing (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 163542
🎯 Longshots: 42613875
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700
Win:4Live Each Day (3/1)
Place:6Katherine's Cub (2/1)
Show:2Laker (4/1)
Other contenders:3Morerita (8/1), 7Golden Sunset (6/1), 8Whynotmarigold (10/1)
Rest of field:5Headspin (10/1), 1Lita Marie (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 642738
🎯 Longshots: 62435871
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #6, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $42,100
Win:7Sheshimaintenance (7/5)
Place:2Cotton (5/2)
Show:9Uncaptured Moment (10/1)
Other contenders:5Classic Dancer (6/1), 3Vamos Viejo (12/1), 8Grande Soiree (8/1)
Rest of field:6Master Spy (15/1), 4Interim Analysis (20/1), 1Always A Way (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 725983
🎯 Longshots: 732981546
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #9, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 11  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300
Win:8Isaac Leo (4/1)
Place:4Mac Gowan (10/1)
Show:6Lean Music Machine (7/2)
Other contenders:3Silver Raleigh (3/1), 1Worry Less (12/1), 2Ride For The Purse (12/1)
Rest of field:9Go Giffen (9/2), 5Tutti Contenti (12/1), 7Draw Boot (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 863497
🎯 Longshots: 426931587
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $42,100
Win:3Napa Spirit (2/1)
Place:2Arabian Prince (3/1)
Show:1Forester's Fortune (5/2)
Other contenders:5Roi Soleil (6/1), 4Total Sensation (10/1)
Rest of field:7Little Red Domi (8/1), 6Tiger Town (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 321574
🎯 Longshots: 3472156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $61,200
Win:5Fracen Macho (8/5)
Place:7Bachelor Pad (9/5)
Show:4Gilt Edge (5/1)
Other contenders:2Summer Commander (10/1), 3Caught Speeding (12/1)
Rest of field:6Perfect Crime (6/1), 1Unique Power (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 574623
🎯 Longshots: 5732461
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #7, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $125,000
Win:2Groovinharmony (5/2)
Place:1Verge (2/1)
Show:4Traction Park (9/2)
Other contenders:5Morrisseau (7/2), 3Barger (6/1)
Rest of field:6Peace Mission (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 215436
🎯 Longshots: 125643
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $125,500
Win:1Sign The Papers (8/5)
Place:7Written Record (8/1)
Show:2Final Script (7/2)
Other contenders:3Tailgate (5/2), 6Motion N Mischief (6/1)
Rest of field:4G Note Jeff (20/1), 5Big Tuna (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 132765
🎯 Longshots: 1326754
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700
Win:7Merckx (2/1)
Place:2Flaxon Falcon (5/2)
Show:5Son Of A Darby (7/2)
Other contenders:8It Wasn't A Bluff (10/1), 6King Kadooment (6/1), 3Silent Explosion (8/1)
Rest of field:1Worthy Park (20/1), 4Brass Serenade (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 725638
🎯 Longshots: 25783146
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Optional Claiming · Purse $69,500
Win:3Philip Banks (4/5)
Place:4Zio Cavallo (7/2)
Show:1Urban Legend (12/1)
Other contenders:2Foxtrotanna (10/1), 5Carnew (8/1)
Rest of field:7Tiho Srce (5/1), 6Glasweigian (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 347521
🎯 Longshots: 3542167
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 1/16 Miles · Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $125,000
Win:6Dazzling Cruiser (3/1)
Place:1Just Magnificent (7/2)
Show:5Zo Zucchera (6/1)
Other contenders:8I've Got The Honey (15/1), 9Loveumissumeanit (12/1), 2Retail Therapist (10/1)
Rest of field:3Z Train (9/2), 4Little Lola (8/1), 7Keytothepark (10/1), 10Periwinkle (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 613542
🎯 Longshots: 61983274510
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $57,000
Win:1May And June (3/1)
Place:3Timeframe (7/2)
Show:6Speights Will (2/1)
Other contenders:4Cajun Influence (12/1), 2Well Lit (8/1), 5Frankness (6/1)
Rest of field:8Eubank (12/1), 7Knowing (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 163524
🎯 Longshots: 42613875
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700
Win:6Katherine's Cub (2/1)
Place:2Laker (4/1)
Show:4Live Each Day (3/1)
Other contenders:3Morerita (8/1), 5Headspin (10/1), 7Golden Sunset (6/1)
Rest of field:8Whynotmarigold (10/1), 1Lita Marie (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 642375
🎯 Longshots: 62435871
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #2, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Starter Allowance · Purse $42,100
Win:2Cotton (5/2)
Place:7Sheshimaintenance (7/5)
Show:9Uncaptured Moment (10/1)
Other contenders:5Classic Dancer (6/1), 8Grande Soiree (8/1), 3Vamos Viejo (12/1)
Rest of field:1Always A Way (20/1), 6Master Spy (15/1), 4Interim Analysis (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 725893
🎯 Longshots: 732981546
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #7, #9, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 11  7 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300
Win:6Lean Music Machine (7/2)
Place:8Isaac Leo (4/1)
Show:3Silver Raleigh (3/1)
Other contenders:9Go Giffen (9/2), 4Mac Gowan (10/1), 2Ride For The Purse (12/1)
Rest of field:7Draw Boot (6/1), 5Tutti Contenti (12/1), 1Worry Less (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 638974
🎯 Longshots: 426931587
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #8, #3, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets – Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R2-4R2: #5,#7,#4 (74%) / R3: #1,#2,#5 (72%) / R4: #1,#7 (78%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 42%
Pick 3 R3-5R3: #1,#2,#5 (72%) / R4: #1,#7 (78%) / R5: #2,#7 (66%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 37%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #1,#7 (78%) / R5: #2,#7 (66%) / R6: #3,#4,#7 (66%)
$12 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 34%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #2,#7 (66%) / R6: #3,#4,#7 (66%) / R7: #6,#1,#3 (62%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27%
Pick 4 R2-5R2: #5,#7,#4 (74%) / R3: #1,#2,#5 (72%) / R4: #1,#7 (78%) / R5: #2,#7 (66%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 28%
Pick 4 R3-6R3: #1,#2,#5 (72%) / R4: #1,#7 (78%) / R5: #2,#7 (66%) / R6: #3,#4,#7 (66%)
$36 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 25%
Index – Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ALWAYS A WAYARABIAN PRINCEBACHELOR PADBARGERBIG TUNA
CAJUN INFLUENCECARNEWCAUGHT SPEEDINGCLASSIC DANCERCOTTON
DRAW BOOTEUBANKFINAL SCRIPTFLAXON FALCONFORESTER'S FORTUNE
FRACEN MACHOFRANKNESSG NOTE JEFFGILT EDGEGLASWEIGIAN
GOLDEN SUNSETGRANDE SOIREEGROOVINHARMONYHEADSPINI'VE GOT THE HONEY
ISAAC LEOIT WASN'T A BLUFFJUST MAGNIFICENTKATHERINE'S CUBKEYTOTHEPARK
KNOWINGLAKERLEAN MUSIC MACHINELITA MARIELITTLE LOLA
LIVE EACH DAYLOVEUMISSUMEANITMAC GOWANMASTER SPYMAY AND JUNE
MORERITAMORRISSEAUMOTION N MISCHIEFNAPA SPIRITPEACE MISSION
PERIWINKLEPHILIP BANKSRETAIL THERAPISTRIDE FOR THE PURSEROI SOLEIL
SIGN THE PAPERSSILENT EXPLOSIONSILVER RALEIGHSON OF A DARBYSPEIGHTS WILL
TAILGATETIGER TOWNTIHO SRCETIMEFRAMETOTAL SENSATION
TUTTI CONTENTIUNCAPTURED MOMENTUNIQUE POWERURBAN LEGENDVAMOS VIEJO
WELL LITWHYNOTMARIGOLDWORRY LESSWORTHY PARKWRITTEN RECORD
ZIO CAVALLOZO ZUCCHERA

 


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