How did these picks do?
Results for this card as of 7:40 AM, graded from the official charts. Each row is that section's top pick in every race with a result; races still pending are not counted. The full week is in the weekly recap.
| Section | Races graded | Won | 2nd | 3rd | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Algo 1 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 57% |
| Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 57% |
| Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 57% |
| Experimental Weight Set 2 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 43% |
| Experimental Weight Set 3 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 29% |
Kelly Edge Plays: 1 flagged longshot(s) graded, 0 won, 0 finished in the money.
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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) and Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, shown with fair odds) are ranked by measured performance on our weekly scoreboard, so a higher number is a stronger pick source. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets; Insider adds Algo 2; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.
How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.
Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
| Race 1 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $37,400 | |
| Win: | 2 – Keynote Speaker (8/5) |
| Place: | 5 – Mann Court (2/1) |
| Show: | 1 – Wonderful Quality (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Celestial Heart (6/1), 6 – Messy Riding (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Wild Eyes Forever (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-5-2-1-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-1-6-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300 | |
| Win: | 5 – May And June (7/5) |
| Place: | 2 – Knowing (5/2) |
| Show: | 4 – Big Lew (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Hoity Moroni (8/1), 3 – Noisy Cricket (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Field Hockey (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-5-2-4-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-2-1-6-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300 | |
| Win: | 3 – Complex Secret (3/1) |
| Place: | 6 – Skydigger (2/1) |
| Show: | 5 – Ruthless Action (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Got A Complex (4/1), 1 – Momanda (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Little Alexa (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-5-6-1-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-3-5-4-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 7 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Claiming · Purse $57,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Lady Iona (5/2) |
| Place: | 5 – Lady Rainicorn (2/1) |
| Show: | 10 – Design Diva (9/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Boss Lady J (7/2), 8 – Armored Guard (20/1), 1 – Top Of D Mountain (6/1), 9 – Big Imagination (9/5) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Adorable Angel (12/1), 2 – Scat Humor (8/1), 11 – Totally In Charge (4/1), 12 – Reload Baba (20/1), 7 – Bling D'money Home (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 10-6-4-5-3-7 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 9-4-5-2-10-11-3-6-8-1-12-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #10, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700 | |
| Win: | 1 – Winning Wizard (5/2) |
| Place: | 2 – Too Fab For You (7/2) |
| Show: | 3 – Street Savant (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Flatter Zip (2/1), 5 – Furnius (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Baytown Da Vinci (8/1), 7 – Saratoga Gold (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-7-1-2-3-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-1-6-7-3-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $53,600 | |
| Win: | 3 – Tranquillo (8/5) |
| Place: | 2 – Can't Tie Me Down (2/1) |
| Show: | 1 – Bertha (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 – Well Lit (7/2), 4 – Steele Town (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Stella Point (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-1-2-5-4-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-2-1-5-6-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 7 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $125,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – Magical Factor (6/5) |
| Place: | 3 – First Empire (7/2) |
| Show: | 4 – Ever Dangerous (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Countryboysurvive (6/1), 1 – Catch The Ace (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Unique Power (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-4-6-1-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-4-1-6-3-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race | |
| Race 8 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $29,600 | |
| Win: | 11 – Volcanic (4/1) |
| Place: | 8 – Shamateur (10/1) |
| Show: | 2 – Onenightstandards (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Space Launch (8/1), 5 – Fast And Ready (10/1), 1 – Can't Jump (6/1), 10 – Audax Minor (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 12 – Alfred Bellows (10/1), 7 – So Called Vacation (20/1), 4 – Ethnic Soul (12/1), 9 – My Boy Bruce (10/1), 6 – Bourbononaholiday (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-4-11-3-8-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-10-2-11-8-5-12-9-4-1-6-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #8, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 20, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5, |
AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
| Race 1 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $37,400 | |
| Win: | 2 – Keynote Speaker (8/5) |
| Place: | 5 – Mann Court (2/1) |
| Show: | 1 – Wonderful Quality (3/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Celestial Heart (6/1), 6 – Messy Riding (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Wild Eyes Forever (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-5-1-3-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-1-6-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #1, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300 | |
| Win: | 5 – May And June (7/5) |
| Place: | 2 – Knowing (5/2) |
| Show: | 4 – Big Lew (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Noisy Cricket (6/1), 1 – Hoity Moroni (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Field Hockey (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-5-2-4-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-2-1-6-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300 | |
| Win: | 6 – Skydigger (2/1) |
| Place: | 3 – Complex Secret (3/1) |
| Show: | 5 – Ruthless Action (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Got A Complex (4/1), 1 – Momanda (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Little Alexa (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-5-6-1-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-3-5-4-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 7 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Claiming · Purse $57,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Lady Iona (5/2) |
| Place: | 5 – Lady Rainicorn (2/1) |
| Show: | 9 – Big Imagination (9/5) |
| Other contenders: | 10 – Design Diva (9/2), 11 – Totally In Charge (4/1), 1 – Top Of D Mountain (6/1), 6 – Boss Lady J (7/2) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Scat Humor (8/1), 8 – Armored Guard (20/1), 3 – Adorable Angel (12/1), 12 – Reload Baba (20/1), 7 – Bling D'money Home (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 10-6-4-5-7-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 9-4-5-2-10-11-3-6-8-1-12-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #9, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700 | |
| Win: | 4 – Flatter Zip (2/1) |
| Place: | 1 – Winning Wizard (5/2) |
| Show: | 2 – Too Fab For You (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Baytown Da Vinci (8/1), 3 – Street Savant (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 7 – Saratoga Gold (12/1), 5 – Furnius (6/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-7-1-2-3-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-1-6-7-3-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $53,600 | |
| Win: | 3 – Tranquillo (8/5) |
| Place: | 2 – Can't Tie Me Down (2/1) |
| Show: | 5 – Well Lit (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Bertha (8/1), 4 – Steele Town (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Stella Point (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-1-5-2-4-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-2-1-5-6-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 7 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $125,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – Magical Factor (6/5) |
| Place: | 4 – Ever Dangerous (5/2) |
| Show: | 3 – First Empire (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Countryboysurvive (6/1), 1 – Catch The Ace (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Unique Power (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-6-4-1-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-4-1-6-3-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race | |
| Race 8 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $29,600 | |
| Win: | 11 – Volcanic (4/1) |
| Place: | 2 – Onenightstandards (3/1) |
| Show: | 1 – Can't Jump (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Space Launch (8/1), 8 – Shamateur (10/1), 5 – Fast And Ready (10/1), 12 – Alfred Bellows (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 10 – Audax Minor (15/1), 4 – Ethnic Soul (12/1), 9 – My Boy Bruce (10/1), 7 – So Called Vacation (20/1), 6 – Bourbononaholiday (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-4-11-1-3-10 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-10-2-11-8-5-12-9-4-1-6-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #2, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
| Race 1 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $37,400 | |
| Win: | 2 – Keynote Speaker (8/5) 32% · fair 2-1 |
| Place: | 1 – Wonderful Quality (3/1) 23% · fair 7-2 |
| Show: | 5 – Mann Court (2/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -48% |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Celestial Heart (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 6 – Messy Riding (12/1) 8% · fair 12-1 |
| Rest of field: | 3 – Wild Eyes Forever (20/1) 5% · fair 35-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-4-5-3-1-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-1-6-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300 | |
| Win: | 5 – May And June (7/5) 28% · fair 5-2 underlay -47% |
| Place: | 2 – Knowing (5/2) 21% · fair 7-2 underlay -33% |
| Show: | 4 – Big Lew (4/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -25% |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Noisy Cricket (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 1 – Hoity Moroni (8/1) 12% · fair 7-1 |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Field Hockey (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-2-5-4-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-2-1-6-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300 | |
| Win: | 6 – Skydigger (2/1) 26% · fair 3-1 underlay -29% |
| Place: | 3 – Complex Secret (3/1) 19% · fair 9-2 underlay -31% |
| Show: | 5 – Ruthless Action (7/2) 17% · fair 5-1 underlay -30% |
| Other contenders: | 4 – Got A Complex (4/1) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -25%, 1 – Momanda (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2 |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Little Alexa (8/1) 10% · fair 19-2 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-4-1-5-6-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-3-5-4-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 7 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Claiming · Purse $57,000 | |
| Win: | 4 – Lady Iona (5/2) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -53% |
| Place: | 5 – Lady Rainicorn (2/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -67% |
| Show: | 10 – Design Diva (9/2) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -32% |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Boss Lady J (7/2) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -52%, 11 – Totally In Charge (4/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -61%, 9 – Big Imagination (9/5) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -83%, 1 – Top Of D Mountain (6/1) 8% · fair 11-1 underlay -46% |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Scat Humor (8/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -42%, 3 – Adorable Angel (12/1) 4% · fair 23-1 underlay -48%, 8 – Armored Guard (20/1) 4% · fair 26-1, 12 – Reload Baba (20/1) 3% · fair 34-1 underlay -41%, 7 – Bling D'money Home (20/1) 2% · fair 119-2 underlay -66% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 10-6-7-3-4-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 9-4-5-2-10-11-3-6-8-1-12-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #10, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700 | |
| Win: | 4 – Flatter Zip (2/1) 32% · fair 2-1 |
| Place: | 1 – Winning Wizard (5/2) 18% · fair 9-2 underlay -45% |
| Show: | 2 – Too Fab For You (7/2) 13% · fair 7-1 underlay -49% |
| Other contenders: | 6 – Baytown Da Vinci (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 3 – Street Savant (10/1) 10% · fair 17-2 |
| Rest of field: | 5 – Furnius (6/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -50%, 7 – Saratoga Gold (12/1) 8% · fair 12-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-7-1-2-3-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-1-6-7-3-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #1, #2, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $53,600 | |
| Win: | 3 – Tranquillo (8/5) 28% · fair 5-2 underlay -37% |
| Place: | 2 – Can't Tie Me Down (2/1) 28% · fair 5-2 |
| Show: | 5 – Well Lit (7/2) 16% · fair 5-1 underlay -31% |
| Other contenders: | 1 – Bertha (8/1) 14% · fair 13-2 overlay +27%, 4 – Steele Town (6/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -48% |
| Rest of field: | 6 – Stella Point (20/1) 6% · fair 31-2 overlay +29% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-1-5-2-4-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-2-1-5-6-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 7 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $125,000 | |
| Win: | 5 – Magical Factor (6/5) 32% · fair 2-1 underlay -43% |
| Place: | 4 – Ever Dangerous (5/2) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -36% |
| Show: | 6 – Countryboysurvive (6/1) 17% · fair 5-1 overlay +25% |
| Other contenders: | 3 – First Empire (7/2) 16% · fair 11-2 underlay -35%, 1 – Catch The Ace (8/1) 10% · fair 9-1 |
| Rest of field: | 2 – Unique Power (20/1) 5% · fair 20-1 |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-6-4-1-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-4-1-6-3-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #6, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race | |
| Race 8 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $29,600 | |
| Win: | 11 – Volcanic (4/1) 18% · fair 9-2 |
| Place: | 2 – Onenightstandards (3/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -50% |
| Show: | 1 – Can't Jump (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2 |
| Other contenders: | 3 – Space Launch (8/1) 9% · fair 21-2, 12 – Alfred Bellows (10/1) 8% · fair 23-2, 5 – Fast And Ready (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -25%, 10 – Audax Minor (15/1) 7% · fair 27-2 |
| Rest of field: | 9 – My Boy Bruce (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -27%, 8 – Shamateur (10/1) 7% · fair 14-1 underlay -27%, 4 – Ethnic Soul (12/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -35%, 6 – Bourbononaholiday (20/1) 4% · fair 25-1, 7 – So Called Vacation (20/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -34% |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-4-11-1-3-10 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-10-2-11-8-5-12-9-4-1-6-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #11 over #2, #1, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ
Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.
| Race 1 | AI Exacta: #2 over #5 ($1 straight; box #2-#5 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #1, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 2 | AI Exacta: #5 over #2 ($1 straight; box #5-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #5 over #2, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 3 | AI Exacta: #6 over #3 ($1 straight; box #6-#3 for cover) Trifecta: #3 over #6, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 4 | AI Exacta: #9 over #4 ($1 straight; box #9-#4 for cover) Trifecta: #5 over #4, #9, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 5 | AI Exacta: #4 over #1 ($1 straight; box #4-#1 for cover) Trifecta: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 6 | AI Exacta: #3 over #2 ($1 straight; box #3-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #3 over #2, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
| Race 7 | AI Exacta: #5 over #4 ($1 straight; box #5-#4 for cover) Trifecta: #5 over #4, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race |
| Race 8 | AI Exacta: #11 over #2 ($1 straight; box #11-#2 for cover) Trifecta: #2 over #11, #8, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing |
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
| Kelly Edge Plays (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob isotonic) Morning-line reliability: +0.33 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it) Weekend sizing: ×0.80 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged) | |||||||
| Race | Horse | ML | Live | P(win) | Edge | ¼ Kelly | Bet on $ bankroll |
| 4 | 8 – Armored Guard | 20/1 | — | 6.3% | +23.2% | 0.29% | $0.29 |
| TOTAL across 1 play: | 0.3% | $0.29 | |||||
| Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly. | |||||||
| 💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line. | |||||||
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
| Race 1 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $37,400 | |
| Win: | 2 - Keynote Speaker (8/5) |
| Place: | 5 - Mann Court (2/1) |
| Show: | 4 - Celestial Heart (6/1) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - Wonderful Quality (3/1), 6 - Messy Riding (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Wild Eyes Forever (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-2-5-1-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-1-6-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #5, #4, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300 | |
| Win: | 5 - May And June (7/5) |
| Place: | 4 - Big Lew (4/1) |
| Show: | 2 - Knowing (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - Hoity Moroni (8/1), 6 - Field Hockey (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Noisy Cricket (6/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-6-2-4-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-2-1-6-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #2, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300 | |
| Win: | 6 - Skydigger (2/1) |
| Place: | 3 - Complex Secret (3/1) |
| Show: | 4 - Got A Complex (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 - Ruthless Action (7/2), 1 - Momanda (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Little Alexa (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 6-3-4-5-1-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-3-5-4-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #3, #4, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 7 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Claiming · Purse $57,000 | |
| Win: | 4 - Lady Iona (5/2) |
| Place: | 2 - Scat Humor (8/1) |
| Show: | 11 - Totally In Charge (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Boss Lady J (7/2), 10 - Design Diva (9/2), 9 - Big Imagination (9/5), 5 - Lady Rainicorn (2/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Adorable Angel (12/1), 1 - Top Of D Mountain (6/1), 8 - Armored Guard (20/1), 12 - Reload Baba (20/1), 7 - Bling D'money Home (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 10-6-4-2-3-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 9-4-5-2-10-11-3-6-8-1-12-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #2, #11, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700 | |
| Win: | 1 - Winning Wizard (5/2) |
| Place: | 2 - Too Fab For You (7/2) |
| Show: | 3 - Street Savant (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Flatter Zip (2/1), 5 - Furnius (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Baytown Da Vinci (8/1), 7 - Saratoga Gold (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-7-1-2-3-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-1-6-7-3-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $53,600 | |
| Win: | 3 - Tranquillo (8/5) |
| Place: | 2 - Can't Tie Me Down (2/1) |
| Show: | 1 - Bertha (8/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 - Well Lit (7/2), 4 - Steele Town (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Stella Point (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-1-2-5-4-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-2-1-5-6-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 7 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $125,000 | |
| Win: | 5 - Magical Factor (6/5) |
| Place: | 3 - First Empire (7/2) |
| Show: | 4 - Ever Dangerous (5/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Countryboysurvive (6/1), 1 - Catch The Ace (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Unique Power (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-4-6-1-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-4-1-6-3-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race | |
| Race 8 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $29,600 | |
| Win: | 8 - Shamateur (10/1) |
| Place: | 2 - Onenightstandards (3/1) |
| Show: | 11 - Volcanic (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 12 - Alfred Bellows (10/1), 3 - Space Launch (8/1), 4 - Ethnic Soul (12/1), 5 - Fast And Ready (10/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 - Can't Jump (6/1), 10 - Audax Minor (15/1), 9 - My Boy Bruce (10/1), 6 - Bourbononaholiday (20/1), 7 - So Called Vacation (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-4-8-11-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-10-2-11-8-5-12-9-4-1-6-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #2, #11, #12 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 87, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1, |
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
| Race 1 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $37,400 | |
| Win: | 2 - Keynote Speaker (8/5) |
| Place: | 1 - Wonderful Quality (3/1) |
| Show: | 5 - Mann Court (2/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Celestial Heart (6/1), 6 - Messy Riding (12/1) |
| Rest of field: | 3 - Wild Eyes Forever (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-6-5-1-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 2-5-1-6-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 2 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300 | |
| Win: | 5 - May And June (7/5) |
| Place: | 2 - Knowing (5/2) |
| Show: | 4 - Big Lew (4/1) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Field Hockey (8/1), 3 - Noisy Cricket (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 1 - Hoity Moroni (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-6-2-4-3-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-2-1-6-4-3 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 3 5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $41,300 | |
| Win: | 3 - Complex Secret (3/1) |
| Place: | 6 - Skydigger (2/1) |
| Show: | 5 - Ruthless Action (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Got A Complex (4/1), 1 - Momanda (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Little Alexa (8/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-6-4-5-1-2 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 6-3-5-4-2-1 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #6, #5, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 4 7 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Claiming · Purse $57,000 | |
| Win: | 5 - Lady Rainicorn (2/1) |
| Place: | 4 - Lady Iona (5/2) |
| Show: | 9 - Big Imagination (9/5) |
| Other contenders: | 10 - Design Diva (9/2), 6 - Boss Lady J (7/2), 11 - Totally In Charge (4/1), 1 - Top Of D Mountain (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Scat Humor (8/1), 3 - Adorable Angel (12/1), 8 - Armored Guard (20/1), 12 - Reload Baba (20/1), 7 - Bling D'money Home (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 10-6-5-4-3-9 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 9-4-5-2-10-11-3-6-8-1-12-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #9, #10 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 5 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $71,700 | |
| Win: | 1 - Winning Wizard (5/2) |
| Place: | 2 - Too Fab For You (7/2) |
| Show: | 3 - Street Savant (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 4 - Flatter Zip (2/1), 5 - Furnius (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Baytown Da Vinci (8/1), 7 - Saratoga Gold (12/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 4-7-1-2-3-5 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 4-1-6-7-3-2-5 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 6 6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Optional Claiming · Purse $53,600 | |
| Win: | 3 - Tranquillo (8/5) |
| Place: | 2 - Can't Tie Me Down (2/1) |
| Show: | 5 - Well Lit (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 1 - Bertha (8/1), 4 - Steele Town (6/1) |
| Rest of field: | 6 - Stella Point (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 3-2-1-5-4-6 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-2-1-5-6-4 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #5, #1 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| Race 7 7 1/2 Furlongs · Inner Turf · Allowance Optional Claiming · Purse $125,000 | |
| Win: | 5 - Magical Factor (6/5) |
| Place: | 4 - Ever Dangerous (5/2) |
| Show: | 3 - First Empire (7/2) |
| Other contenders: | 6 - Countryboysurvive (6/1), 1 - Catch The Ace (8/1) |
| Rest of field: | 2 - Unique Power (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-4-6-1-2-3 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 5-4-1-6-3-2 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #4, #3, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) ⭐ Best Bet race | |
| Race 8 1 1/16 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $29,600 | |
| Win: | 2 - Onenightstandards (3/1) |
| Place: | 11 - Volcanic (4/1) |
| Show: | 8 - Shamateur (10/1) |
| Other contenders: | 5 - Fast And Ready (10/1), 1 - Can't Jump (6/1), 3 - Space Launch (8/1), 10 - Audax Minor (15/1) |
| Rest of field: | 9 - My Boy Bruce (10/1), 4 - Ethnic Soul (12/1), 12 - Alfred Bellows (10/1), 7 - So Called Vacation (20/1), 6 - Bourbononaholiday (20/1) |
| 🌧️ Off-track: 5-4-11-2-8-1 | |
| 🎯 Longshots: 3-10-2-11-8-5-12-9-4-1-6-7 | |
| 🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #11, #8, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos) · low value — consider passing | |
| AI Weight Settingsⓘ |
| Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 50, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1, |
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ
Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.
| Pick 3 R1-3 | R1: #2,#1,#5 (75%) / R2: #5,#2,#4 (65%) / R3: #6,#3,#5 (62%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 30% |
| Pick 3 R4-6 | R4: #4,#5,#10 (43%) / R5: #4,#1,#2 (63%) / R6: #3,#2,#5 (72%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19% |
| Pick 3 R5-7 | R5: #4,#1,#2 (63%) / R6: #3,#2,#5 (72%) / R7: #5,#4,#6 (70%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 32% |
| Pick 3 R6-8 | R6: #3,#2,#5 (72%) / R7: #5,#4,#6 (70%) / R8: #11,#2,#1 (44%) $27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22% |
| Pick 4 R4-7 | R4: #4,#5,#10 (43%) / R5: #4,#1,#2 (63%) / R6: #3,#2,#5 (72%) / R7: #5,#4,#6 (70%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 14% |
| Pick 4 R5-8 | R5: #4,#1,#2 (63%) / R6: #3,#2,#5 (72%) / R7: #5,#4,#6 (70%) / R8: #11,#2,#1 (44%) $81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 14% |
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
| ADORABLE ANGEL | ALFRED BELLOWS | ARMORED GUARD | AUDAX MINOR | BAYTOWN DA VINCI |
| BIG IMAGINATION | BIG LEW | BLING D'MONEY HOME | BOSS LADY J | BOURBONONAHOLIDAY |
| CAN'T TIE ME DOWN | CATCH THE ACE | CELESTIAL HEART | COMPLEX SECRET | COUNTRYBOYSURVIVE |
| ETHNIC SOUL | EVER DANGEROUS | FAST AND READY | FIELD HOCKEY | FIRST EMPIRE |
| FURNIUS | GOT A COMPLEX | HOITY MORONI | KEYNOTE SPEAKER | KNOWING |
| LADY RAINICORN | LITTLE ALEXA | MAGICAL FACTOR | MANN COURT | MAY AND JUNE |
| MOMANDA | MY BOY BRUCE | NOISY CRICKET | ONENIGHTSTANDARDS | RELOAD BABA |
| SARATOGA GOLD | SCAT HUMOR | SHAMATEUR | SKYDIGGER | SO CALLED VACATION |
| STEELE TOWN | STELLA POINT | STREET SAVANT | TOO FAB FOR YOU | TOP OF D MOUNTAIN |
| TRANQUILLO | UNIQUE POWER | VOLCANIC | WELL LIT | WILD EYES FOREVER |
| WONDERFUL QUALITY |
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