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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Zia Park, November 2, 2026

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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $22,550
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Amazing Music (8/5)
Place:7Bucks Action (4/1)
Show:2Runnin Politician (3/1)
Other contenders:1Final Trial (8/1), 5Road Rules (15/1)
Rest of field:6Baal (15/1), 3Street Colors (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 472135
🎯 Longshots: 4725163
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:4Real Good Game (4/1)
Place:8Wild Steel (9/2)
Show:3Jawdropper (5/1)
Other contenders:1Ridgehead (7/2), 6Danjerus Cloud (8/1), 2Om Time Gal (30/1)
Rest of field:7Siempre Naman (8/1), 5Ragazza Vincente (6/1), 9Attila Style (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 481365
🎯 Longshots: 648293175
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #8, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $29,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Pleasin N Teasin (5/1)
Place:7Comfort Dance (4/1)
Show:2Legion Heiress (7/2)
Other contenders:5Markofafighter (8/1), 6Literallylyndee (8/1)
Rest of field:1Zap Dancer (15/1), 4Malibu Comfort (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 327561
🎯 Longshots: 5637214
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #7, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:3Karaoke Hero (2/1)
Place:2Attila The Dun (5/2)
Show:5Hello Hot Rod (9/2)
Other contenders:8Comfort J Byrd (6/1), 1Ham Sandwich (8/1), 7Mister Wu (10/1)
Rest of field:4Northwind (15/1), 6Mickeys Gold (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 325817
🎯 Longshots: 13728456
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #5, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000
Win:1Sudeikis (9/5)
Place:3One Horse Town (3/1)
Show:2Lennie G (4/1)
Other contenders:4Kiss For Lulu (6/1), 5Tacos And Tequila (10/1), 7Igniting Embers (12/1)
Rest of field:6Fast Pay (15/1), 8Practical Seven (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 132457
🎯 Longshots: 13452768
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000
Win:8Bode's Lady (2/1)
Place:7Flying Grace (5/2)
Show:6Dive Bar Diva (4/1)
Other contenders:3Copper Vixen (9/2), 4Shespendsmylute (6/1), 2Forgetful Lucy (10/1)
Rest of field:5Getluckyinkentucky (12/1), 1Spicy Whiskey Lass (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 876342
🎯 Longshots: 87643251
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000
Win:4He's So Smooth (9/5)
Place:7Az Danger (3/1)
Show:10Saree (9/2)
Other contenders:9My Name Is El Jefe (6/1), 3Cyber Sword (10/1), 2Arizona Rocks (8/1)
Rest of field:1King Baldwin (20/1), 8Black Shimmer (15/1), 6Trust The Karma (30/1), 5Helpmehelpyou (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4710932
🎯 Longshots: 47109238156
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #10, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $60,000
Win:3B D One (3/1)
Place:8Jennys Tamale (2/1)
Show:2Perfect Style (9/2)
Other contenders:9Daddys Favorite (5/1), 7Act Naturally (8/1), 4Untapit (10/1)
Rest of field:1Bam's Ky Gold (15/1), 5Marquee Attraction (15/1), 6Hanky Panky Girl (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 382974
🎯 Longshots: 389472156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #2, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $65,000
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:3R R Bougie (7/5)
Place:4Practical Dream (5/2)
Show:5Chandon (5/1)
Other contenders:1Pink Pacific (6/1), 8Lazy Days (8/1), 6Tour Queen (10/1)
Rest of field:2Sarah's Court (10/1), 7Sahara Kara (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 345186
🎯 Longshots: 34825167
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $77,000
◇ Thin spot — race 9 or later: the AI Ensemble has not beaten the morning-line favourite this late on the card. Treat with less confidence.
Win:4Let Him Be (4/5)
Place:5Leave Them Behind (3/1)
Show:3American Ranger Bb (5/1)
Other contenders:7Holy Bullet (10/1), 6Jmark (8/1)
Rest of field:1Flags Finale (15/1), 2Maximum Bull (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 453761
🎯 Longshots: 4571632
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $22,550
Win:7Bucks Action (4/1) 32% · fair 2-1 overlay +86%
Place:4Amazing Music (8/5) 28% · fair 5-2 underlay -37%
Show:2Runnin Politician (3/1) 20% · fair 4-1 underlay -26%
Other contenders:1Final Trial (8/1) 7% · fair 13-1 underlay -38%, 3Street Colors (10/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -43%
Rest of field:5Road Rules (15/1) 5% · fair 20-1, 6Baal (15/1) 3% · fair 67-2 underlay -55%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Bucks Action — 31.7% win probability, morning line 4/1Bucks Action31.7% ◀Amazing Music — 28.1% win probability, morning line 1.6/1Amazing Music28.1%Runnin Politician — 19.8% win probability, morning line 3/1Runnin Politician19.8%Final Trial — 7.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Final Trial7.2%Street Colors — 5.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Street Colors5.4%Road Rules — 4.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Road Rules4.8%Baal — 2.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Baal2.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Bucks Action31.7%4/1
Amazing Music28.1%1.6/1
Runnin Politician19.8%3/1
Final Trial7.2%8/1
Street Colors5.4%10/1
Road Rules4.8%15/1
Baal2.9%15/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBucks Action: model 31.7% vs market 17.2% (+14.5 points)Bucks Action+14.5Amazing Music: model 28.1% vs market 33.1% (-5.0 points)Amazing Music-5.0Runnin Politician: model 19.8% vs market 21.5% (-1.7 points)Runnin Politician-1.7Final Trial: model 7.2% vs market 9.6% (-2.3 points)Final Trial-2.3Street Colors: model 5.4% vs market 7.8% (-2.4 points)Street Colors-2.4Road Rules: model 4.8% vs market 5.4% (-0.6 points)Road Rules-0.6Baal: model 2.9% vs market 5.4% (-2.5 points)Baal-2.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Bucks Action31.7%17.2%+14.5
Amazing Music28.1%33.1%-5.0
Runnin Politician19.8%21.5%-1.7
Final Trial7.2%9.6%-2.3
Street Colors5.4%7.8%-2.4
Road Rules4.8%5.4%-0.6
Baal2.9%5.4%-2.5
🌧️ Off-track: 472135
🎯 Longshots: 4725163
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #4, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:8Wild Steel (9/2) 20% · fair 4-1
Place:4Real Good Game (4/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Show:3Jawdropper (5/1) 15% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:6Danjerus Cloud (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 1Ridgehead (7/2) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -60%, 2Om Time Gal (30/1) 8% · fair 12-1 overlay +154%
Rest of field:7Siempre Naman (8/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -46%, 9Attila Style (15/1) 6% · fair 31-2, 5Ragazza Vincente (6/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -66%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Wild Steel — 20.0% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Wild Steel20.0% ◀Real Good Game — 17.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Real Good Game17.3%Jawdropper — 15.4% win probability, morning line 5/1Jawdropper15.4%Danjerus Cloud — 11.6% win probability, morning line 8/1Danjerus Cloud11.6%Ridgehead — 10.2% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Ridgehead10.2%Om Time Gal — 7.8% win probability, morning line 30/1Om Time Gal7.8%Siempre Naman — 6.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Siempre Naman6.3%Attila Style — 6.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Attila Style6.0%Ragazza Vincente — 5.3% win probability, morning line 6/1Ragazza Vincente5.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Wild Steel20.0%4.5/1
Real Good Game17.3%4/1
Jawdropper15.4%5/1
Danjerus Cloud11.6%8/1
Ridgehead10.2%3.5/1
Om Time Gal7.8%30/1
Siempre Naman6.3%8/1
Attila Style6.0%15/1
Ragazza Vincente5.3%6/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherWild Steel: model 20.0% vs market 14.8% (+5.2 points)Wild Steel+5.2Real Good Game: model 17.3% vs market 16.3% (+1.1 points)Real Good Game+1.1Jawdropper: model 15.4% vs market 13.5% (+1.9 points)Jawdropper+1.9Danjerus Cloud: model 11.6% vs market 9.0% (+2.6 points)Danjerus Cloud+2.6Ridgehead: model 10.2% vs market 18.1% (-7.9 points)Ridgehead-7.9Om Time Gal: model 7.8% vs market 2.6% (+5.2 points)Om Time Gal+5.2Siempre Naman: model 6.3% vs market 9.0% (-2.7 points)Siempre Naman-2.7Attila Style: model 6.0% vs market 5.1% (+0.9 points)Attila Style+0.9Ragazza Vincente: model 5.3% vs market 11.6% (-6.3 points)Ragazza Vincente-6.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Wild Steel20.0%14.8%+5.2
Real Good Game17.3%16.3%+1.1
Jawdropper15.4%13.5%+1.9
Danjerus Cloud11.6%9.0%+2.6
Ridgehead10.2%18.1%-7.9
Om Time Gal7.8%2.6%+5.2
Siempre Naman6.3%9.0%-2.7
Attila Style6.0%5.1%+0.9
Ragazza Vincente5.3%11.6%-6.3
🌧️ Off-track: 843165
🎯 Longshots: 648293175
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #4, #3, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $29,500
Win:3Pleasin N Teasin (5/1) 32% · fair 2-1 overlay +132%
Place:5Markofafighter (8/1) 21% · fair 7-2 overlay +116%
Show:7Comfort Dance (4/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Other contenders:6Literallylyndee (8/1) 13% · fair 13-2, 2Legion Heiress (7/2) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -54%
Rest of field:1Zap Dancer (15/1) 5% · fair 21-1 underlay -29%, 4Malibu Comfort (30/1) 1% · fair 71-1 underlay -58%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Pleasin N Teasin — 31.6% win probability, morning line 5/1Pleasin N Teasin31.6% ◀Markofafighter — 21.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Markofafighter21.3%Comfort Dance — 16.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Comfort Dance16.6%Literallylyndee — 13.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Literallylyndee13.1%Legion Heiress — 11.5% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Legion Heiress11.5%Zap Dancer — 4.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Zap Dancer4.5%Malibu Comfort — 1.4% win probability, morning line 30/1Malibu Comfort1.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Pleasin N Teasin31.6%5/1
Markofafighter21.3%8/1
Comfort Dance16.6%4/1
Literallylyndee13.1%8/1
Legion Heiress11.5%3.5/1
Zap Dancer4.5%15/1
Malibu Comfort1.4%30/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherPleasin N Teasin: model 31.6% vs market 18.4% (+13.2 points)Pleasin N Teasin+13.2Markofafighter: model 21.3% vs market 12.3% (+9.0 points)Markofafighter+9.0Comfort Dance: model 16.6% vs market 22.1% (-5.5 points)Comfort Dance-5.5Literallylyndee: model 13.1% vs market 12.3% (+0.8 points)Literallylyndee+0.8Legion Heiress: model 11.5% vs market 24.5% (-13.0 points)Legion Heiress-13.0Zap Dancer: model 4.5% vs market 6.9% (-2.4 points)Zap Dancer-2.4Malibu Comfort: model 1.4% vs market 3.6% (-2.2 points)Malibu Comfort-2.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Pleasin N Teasin31.6%18.4%+13.2
Markofafighter21.3%12.3%+9.0
Comfort Dance16.6%22.1%-5.5
Literallylyndee13.1%12.3%+0.8
Legion Heiress11.5%24.5%-13.0
Zap Dancer4.5%6.9%-2.4
Malibu Comfort1.4%3.6%-2.2
🌧️ Off-track: 372561
🎯 Longshots: 5637214
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #7, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,500
Win:3Karaoke Hero (2/1) 32% · fair 2-1
Place:2Attila The Dun (5/2) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -55%
Show:1Ham Sandwich (8/1) 14% · fair 6-1 overlay +35%
Other contenders:5Hello Hot Rod (9/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -25%, 8Comfort J Byrd (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 4Northwind (15/1) 6% · fair 16-1
Rest of field:7Mister Wu (10/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -48%, 6Mickeys Gold (30/1) 1% · fair 92-1 underlay -67%
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Karaoke Hero — 32.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Karaoke Hero32.1% ◀Attila The Dun — 15.4% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Attila The Dun15.4%Ham Sandwich — 14.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Ham Sandwich14.4%Hello Hot Rod — 14.2% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Hello Hot Rod14.2%Comfort J Byrd — 12.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Comfort J Byrd12.0%Northwind — 5.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Northwind5.9%Mister Wu — 4.9% win probability, morning line 10/1Mister Wu4.9%Mickeys Gold — 1.1% win probability, morning line 30/1Mickeys Gold1.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Karaoke Hero32.1%2/1
Attila The Dun15.4%2.5/1
Ham Sandwich14.4%8/1
Hello Hot Rod14.2%4.5/1
Comfort J Byrd12.0%6/1
Northwind5.9%15/1
Mister Wu4.9%10/1
Mickeys Gold1.1%30/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherKaraoke Hero: model 32.1% vs market 26.9% (+5.2 points)Karaoke Hero+5.2Attila The Dun: model 15.4% vs market 23.0% (-7.7 points)Attila The Dun-7.7Ham Sandwich: model 14.4% vs market 9.0% (+5.5 points)Ham Sandwich+5.5Hello Hot Rod: model 14.2% vs market 14.7% (-0.4 points)Hello Hot Rod-0.4Comfort J Byrd: model 12.0% vs market 11.5% (+0.5 points)Comfort J Byrd+0.5Northwind: model 5.9% vs market 5.0% (+0.9 points)Northwind+0.9Mister Wu: model 4.9% vs market 7.3% (-2.4 points)Mister Wu-2.4Mickeys Gold: model 1.1% vs market 2.6% (-1.5 points)Mickeys Gold-1.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Karaoke Hero32.1%26.9%+5.2
Attila The Dun15.4%23.0%-7.7
Ham Sandwich14.4%9.0%+5.5
Hello Hot Rod14.2%14.7%-0.4
Comfort J Byrd12.0%11.5%+0.5
Northwind5.9%5.0%+0.9
Mister Wu4.9%7.3%-2.4
Mickeys Gold1.1%2.6%-1.5
🌧️ Off-track: 325817
🎯 Longshots: 13728456
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000
Win:1Sudeikis (9/5) 39% · fair 3-2
Place:3One Horse Town (3/1) 26% · fair 3-1
Show:2Lennie G (4/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -38%
Other contenders:4Kiss For Lulu (6/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -30%, 5Tacos And Tequila (10/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -45%, 7Igniting Embers (12/1) 3% · fair 30-1 underlay -60%
Rest of field:6Fast Pay (15/1) 1% · fair 135-2 underlay -78%, 8Practical Seven (20/1) 1% · fair 82-1 underlay -76%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Sudeikis — 39.5% win probability, morning line 1.8/1Sudeikis39.5% ◀One Horse Town — 25.6% win probability, morning line 3/1One Horse Town25.6%Lennie G — 13.4% win probability, morning line 4/1Lennie G13.4%Kiss For Lulu — 10.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Kiss For Lulu10.5%Tacos And Tequila — 5.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Tacos And Tequila5.2%Igniting Embers — 3.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Igniting Embers3.2%Fast Pay — 1.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Fast Pay1.5%Practical Seven — 1.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Practical Seven1.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Sudeikis39.5%1.8/1
One Horse Town25.6%3/1
Lennie G13.4%4/1
Kiss For Lulu10.5%6/1
Tacos And Tequila5.2%10/1
Igniting Embers3.2%12/1
Fast Pay1.5%15/1
Practical Seven1.2%20/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherSudeikis: model 39.5% vs market 29.1% (+10.4 points)Sudeikis+10.4One Horse Town: model 25.6% vs market 20.4% (+5.2 points)One Horse Town+5.2Lennie G: model 13.4% vs market 16.3% (-2.9 points)Lennie G-2.9Kiss For Lulu: model 10.5% vs market 11.6% (-1.2 points)Kiss For Lulu-1.2Tacos And Tequila: model 5.2% vs market 7.4% (-2.2 points)Tacos And Tequila-2.2Igniting Embers: model 3.2% vs market 6.3% (-3.0 points)Igniting Embers-3.0Fast Pay: model 1.5% vs market 5.1% (-3.6 points)Fast Pay-3.6Practical Seven: model 1.2% vs market 3.9% (-2.7 points)Practical Seven-2.7

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Sudeikis39.5%29.1%+10.4
One Horse Town25.6%20.4%+5.2
Lennie G13.4%16.3%-2.9
Kiss For Lulu10.5%11.6%-1.2
Tacos And Tequila5.2%7.4%-2.2
Igniting Embers3.2%6.3%-3.0
Fast Pay1.5%5.1%-3.6
Practical Seven1.2%3.9%-2.7
🌧️ Off-track: 132457
🎯 Longshots: 13452768
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000
Win:8Bode's Lady (2/1) 23% · fair 7-2 underlay -40%
Place:7Flying Grace (5/2) 22% · fair 7-2 underlay -31%
Show:6Dive Bar Diva (4/1) 22% · fair 7-2
Other contenders:3Copper Vixen (9/2) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -47%, 4Shespendsmylute (6/1) 10% · fair 17-2 underlay -30%, 2Forgetful Lucy (10/1) 7% · fair 25-2
Rest of field:5Getluckyinkentucky (12/1) 4% · fair 49-2 underlay -51%, 1Spicy Whiskey Lass (20/1) 1% · fair 73-1 underlay -73%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Bode'S Lady — 23.0% win probability, morning line 2/1Bode'S Lady23.0% ◀Flying Grace — 21.7% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Flying Grace21.7%Dive Bar Diva — 21.7% win probability, morning line 4/1Dive Bar Diva21.7%Copper Vixen — 10.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Copper Vixen10.5%Shespendsmylute — 10.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Shespendsmylute10.5%Forgetful Lucy — 7.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Forgetful Lucy7.4%Getluckyinkentucky — 3.9% win probability, morning line 12/1Getluckyinkentucky3.9%Spicy Whiskey Lass — 1.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Spicy Whiskey Lass1.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Bode'S Lady23.0%2/1
Flying Grace21.7%2.5/1
Dive Bar Diva21.7%4/1
Copper Vixen10.5%4.5/1
Shespendsmylute10.5%6/1
Forgetful Lucy7.4%10/1
Getluckyinkentucky3.9%12/1
Spicy Whiskey Lass1.4%20/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherBode'S Lady: model 23.0% vs market 24.5% (-1.5 points)Bode'S Lady-1.5Flying Grace: model 21.7% vs market 21.0% (+0.7 points)Flying Grace+0.7Dive Bar Diva: model 21.7% vs market 14.7% (+7.0 points)Dive Bar Diva+7.0Copper Vixen: model 10.5% vs market 13.4% (-2.9 points)Copper Vixen-2.9Shespendsmylute: model 10.5% vs market 10.5% (-0.1 points)Shespendsmylute-0.1Forgetful Lucy: model 7.4% vs market 6.7% (+0.7 points)Forgetful Lucy+0.7Getluckyinkentucky: model 3.9% vs market 5.7% (-1.7 points)Getluckyinkentucky-1.7Spicy Whiskey Lass: model 1.4% vs market 3.5% (-2.2 points)Spicy Whiskey Lass-2.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Bode'S Lady23.0%24.5%-1.5
Flying Grace21.7%21.0%+0.7
Dive Bar Diva21.7%14.7%+7.0
Copper Vixen10.5%13.4%-2.9
Shespendsmylute10.5%10.5%-0.1
Forgetful Lucy7.4%6.7%+0.7
Getluckyinkentucky3.9%5.7%-1.7
Spicy Whiskey Lass1.4%3.5%-2.2
🌧️ Off-track: 876342
🎯 Longshots: 87643251
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #6, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000
Win:4He's So Smooth (9/5) 35% · fair 2-1
Place:10Saree (9/2) 15% · fair 6-1
Show:9My Name Is El Jefe (6/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:7Az Danger (3/1) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -58%, 2Arizona Rocks (8/1) 9% · fair 19-2, 3Cyber Sword (10/1) 8% · fair 23-2
Rest of field:8Black Shimmer (15/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -51%, 1King Baldwin (20/1) 2% · fair 54-1 underlay -63%, 6Trust The Karma (30/1) 1% · fair 79-1 underlay -62%, 5Helpmehelpyou (30/1) 1% · fair 205-2 underlay -71%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

He'S So Smooth — 34.9% win probability, morning line 1.8/1He'S So Smooth34.9% ◀Saree — 14.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Saree14.6%My Name Is El Jefe — 13.4% win probability, morning line 6/1My Name Is El Jefe13.4%Az Danger — 12.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Az Danger12.3%Arizona Rocks — 9.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Arizona Rocks9.4%Cyber Sword — 8.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Cyber Sword8.1%Black Shimmer — 3.2% win probability, morning line 15/1Black Shimmer3.2%King Baldwin — 1.8% win probability, morning line 20/1King Baldwin1.8%Trust The Karma — 1.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Trust The Karma1.2%Helpmehelpyou — 1.0% win probability, morning line 30/1Helpmehelpyou1.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
He'S So Smooth34.9%1.8/1
Saree14.6%4.5/1
My Name Is El Jefe13.4%6/1
Az Danger12.3%3/1
Arizona Rocks9.4%8/1
Cyber Sword8.1%10/1
Black Shimmer3.2%15/1
King Baldwin1.8%20/1
Trust The Karma1.2%30/1
Helpmehelpyou1.0%30/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHe'S So Smooth: model 34.9% vs market 27.3% (+7.6 points)He'S So Smooth+7.6Saree: model 14.6% vs market 13.9% (+0.7 points)Saree+0.7My Name Is El Jefe: model 13.4% vs market 10.9% (+2.5 points)My Name Is El Jefe+2.5Az Danger: model 12.3% vs market 19.1% (-6.8 points)Az Danger-6.8Arizona Rocks: model 9.4% vs market 8.5% (+0.9 points)Arizona Rocks+0.9Cyber Sword: model 8.1% vs market 6.9% (+1.2 points)Cyber Sword+1.2Black Shimmer: model 3.2% vs market 4.8% (-1.6 points)Black Shimmer-1.6King Baldwin: model 1.8% vs market 3.6% (-1.8 points)King Baldwin-1.8Trust The Karma: model 1.2% vs market 2.5% (-1.2 points)Trust The Karma-1.2Helpmehelpyou: model 1.0% vs market 2.5% (-1.5 points)Helpmehelpyou-1.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
He'S So Smooth34.9%27.3%+7.6
Saree14.6%13.9%+0.7
My Name Is El Jefe13.4%10.9%+2.5
Az Danger12.3%19.1%-6.8
Arizona Rocks9.4%8.5%+0.9
Cyber Sword8.1%6.9%+1.2
Black Shimmer3.2%4.8%-1.6
King Baldwin1.8%3.6%-1.8
Trust The Karma1.2%2.5%-1.2
Helpmehelpyou1.0%2.5%-1.5
🌧️ Off-track: 4710923
🎯 Longshots: 47109238156
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #10, #9, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $60,000
Win:3B D One (3/1) 39% · fair 3-2 overlay +91%
Place:8Jennys Tamale (2/1) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -53%
Show:7Act Naturally (8/1) 13% · fair 13-2
Other contenders:2Perfect Style (9/2) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -53%, 9Daddys Favorite (5/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -59%, 4Untapit (10/1) 5% · fair 18-1 underlay -45%
Rest of field:1Bam's Ky Gold (15/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -38%, 5Marquee Attraction (15/1) 2% · fair 39-1 underlay -62%, 6Hanky Panky Girl (30/1) 0% · fair 1301-2 underlay -95%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

B D One — 38.9% win probability, morning line 3/1B D One38.9% ◀Jennys Tamale — 19.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Jennys Tamale19.1%Act Naturally — 13.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Act Naturally13.1%Perfect Style — 9.5% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Perfect Style9.5%Daddys Favorite — 7.6% win probability, morning line 5/1Daddys Favorite7.6%Untapit — 5.2% win probability, morning line 10/1Untapit5.2%Bam'S Ky Gold — 4.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Bam'S Ky Gold4.0%Marquee Attraction — 2.5% win probability, morning line 15/1Marquee Attraction2.5%Hanky Panky Girl — 0.2% win probability, morning line 30/1Hanky Panky Girl0.2%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
B D One38.9%3/1
Jennys Tamale19.1%2/1
Act Naturally13.1%8/1
Perfect Style9.5%4.5/1
Daddys Favorite7.6%5/1
Untapit5.2%10/1
Bam'S Ky Gold4.0%15/1
Marquee Attraction2.5%15/1
Hanky Panky Girl0.2%30/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherB D One: model 38.9% vs market 19.4% (+19.5 points)B D One+19.5Jennys Tamale: model 19.1% vs market 25.8% (-6.8 points)Jennys Tamale-6.8Act Naturally: model 13.1% vs market 8.6% (+4.5 points)Act Naturally+4.5Perfect Style: model 9.5% vs market 14.1% (-4.6 points)Perfect Style-4.6Daddys Favorite: model 7.6% vs market 12.9% (-5.3 points)Daddys Favorite-5.3Untapit: model 5.2% vs market 7.0% (-1.8 points)Untapit-1.8Bam'S Ky Gold: model 4.0% vs market 4.8% (-0.8 points)Bam'S Ky Gold-0.8Marquee Attraction: model 2.5% vs market 4.8% (-2.4 points)Marquee Attraction-2.4Hanky Panky Girl: model 0.2% vs market 2.5% (-2.3 points)Hanky Panky Girl-2.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
B D One38.9%19.4%+19.5
Jennys Tamale19.1%25.8%-6.8
Act Naturally13.1%8.6%+4.5
Perfect Style9.5%14.1%-4.6
Daddys Favorite7.6%12.9%-5.3
Untapit5.2%7.0%-1.8
Bam'S Ky Gold4.0%4.8%-0.8
Marquee Attraction2.5%4.8%-2.4
Hanky Panky Girl0.2%2.5%-2.3
🌧️ Off-track: 382974
🎯 Longshots: 389472156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #7, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $65,000
Win:3R R Bougie (7/5) 34% · fair 2-1 underlay -27%
Place:4Practical Dream (5/2) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -41%
Show:5Chandon (5/1) 15% · fair 11-2
Other contenders:1Pink Pacific (6/1) 10% · fair 9-1 underlay -33%, 8Lazy Days (8/1) 9% · fair 10-1, 6Tour Queen (10/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -46%
Rest of field:2Sarah's Court (10/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -49%, 7Sahara Kara (12/1) 2% · fair 97-2 underlay -75%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

R R Bougie — 34.4% win probability, morning line 1.4/1R R Bougie34.4% ◀Practical Dream — 19.1% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Practical Dream19.1%Chandon — 15.3% win probability, morning line 5/1Chandon15.3%Pink Pacific — 10.0% win probability, morning line 6/1Pink Pacific10.0%Lazy Days — 9.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Lazy Days9.3%Tour Queen — 5.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Tour Queen5.1%Sarah'S Court — 4.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Sarah'S Court4.8%Sahara Kara — 2.0% win probability, morning line 12/1Sahara Kara2.0%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
R R Bougie34.4%1.4/1
Practical Dream19.1%2.5/1
Chandon15.3%5/1
Pink Pacific10.0%6/1
Lazy Days9.3%8/1
Tour Queen5.1%10/1
Sarah'S Court4.8%10/1
Sahara Kara2.0%12/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherR R Bougie: model 34.4% vs market 30.2% (+4.2 points)R R Bougie+4.2Practical Dream: model 19.1% vs market 20.7% (-1.5 points)Practical Dream-1.5Chandon: model 15.3% vs market 12.1% (+3.2 points)Chandon+3.2Pink Pacific: model 10.0% vs market 10.3% (-0.3 points)Pink Pacific-0.3Lazy Days: model 9.3% vs market 8.0% (+1.2 points)Lazy Days+1.2Tour Queen: model 5.1% vs market 6.6% (-1.5 points)Tour Queen-1.5Sarah'S Court: model 4.8% vs market 6.6% (-1.8 points)Sarah'S Court-1.8Sahara Kara: model 2.0% vs market 5.6% (-3.5 points)Sahara Kara-3.5

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
R R Bougie34.4%30.2%+4.2
Practical Dream19.1%20.7%-1.5
Chandon15.3%12.1%+3.2
Pink Pacific10.0%10.3%-0.3
Lazy Days9.3%8.0%+1.2
Tour Queen5.1%6.6%-1.5
Sarah'S Court4.8%6.6%-1.8
Sahara Kara2.0%5.6%-3.5
🌧️ Off-track: 345186
🎯 Longshots: 34825167
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $77,000
Win:4Let Him Be (4/5) 50% · fair 5-5
Place:5Leave Them Behind (3/1) 21% · fair 7-2
Show:3American Ranger Bb (5/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -35%
Other contenders:7Holy Bullet (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -27%, 6Jmark (8/1) 5% · fair 19-1 underlay -57%
Rest of field:1Flags Finale (15/1) 3% · fair 31-1 underlay -52%, 2Maximum Bull (12/1) 2% · fair 111-2 underlay -78%
Race 10 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Let Him Be — 50.2% win probability, morning line 0.8/1Let Him Be50.2% ◀Leave Them Behind — 21.5% win probability, morning line 3/1Leave Them Behind21.5%American Ranger Bb — 11.5% win probability, morning line 5/1American Ranger Bb11.5%Holy Bullet — 6.8% win probability, morning line 10/1Holy Bullet6.8%Jmark — 5.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Jmark5.0%Flags Finale — 3.1% win probability, morning line 15/1Flags Finale3.1%Maximum Bull — 1.8% win probability, morning line 12/1Maximum Bull1.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Let Him Be50.2%0.8/1
Leave Them Behind21.5%3/1
American Ranger Bb11.5%5/1
Holy Bullet6.8%10/1
Jmark5.0%8/1
Flags Finale3.1%15/1
Maximum Bull1.8%12/1
Race 10 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherLet Him Be: model 50.2% vs market 42.3% (+7.9 points)Let Him Be+7.9Leave Them Behind: model 21.5% vs market 19.0% (+2.4 points)Leave Them Behind+2.4American Ranger Bb: model 11.5% vs market 12.7% (-1.1 points)American Ranger Bb-1.1Holy Bullet: model 6.8% vs market 6.9% (-0.1 points)Holy Bullet-0.1Jmark: model 5.0% vs market 8.5% (-3.4 points)Jmark-3.4Flags Finale: model 3.1% vs market 4.8% (-1.6 points)Flags Finale-1.6Maximum Bull: model 1.8% vs market 5.9% (-4.1 points)Maximum Bull-4.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Let Him Be50.2%42.3%+7.9
Leave Them Behind21.5%19.0%+2.4
American Ranger Bb11.5%12.7%-1.1
Holy Bullet6.8%6.9%-0.1
Jmark5.0%8.5%-3.4
Flags Finale3.1%4.8%-1.6
Maximum Bull1.8%5.9%-4.1
🌧️ Off-track: 453672
🎯 Longshots: 4571632
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $22,550
Win:2Runnin Politician (3/1)
Place:4Amazing Music (8/5)
Show:7Bucks Action (4/1)
Other contenders:1Final Trial (8/1), 3Street Colors (10/1)
Rest of field:5Road Rules (15/1), 6Baal (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 427135
🎯 Longshots: 4725163
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #4, #7, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:3Jawdropper (5/1)
Place:5Ragazza Vincente (6/1)
Show:8Wild Steel (9/2)
Other contenders:1Ridgehead (7/2), 6Danjerus Cloud (8/1), 4Real Good Game (4/1)
Rest of field:7Siempre Naman (8/1), 9Attila Style (15/1), 2Om Time Gal (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 381546
🎯 Longshots: 648293175
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #8, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $29,500
Win:2Legion Heiress (7/2)
Place:3Pleasin N Teasin (5/1)
Show:5Markofafighter (8/1)
Other contenders:7Comfort Dance (4/1), 6Literallylyndee (8/1)
Rest of field:1Zap Dancer (15/1), 4Malibu Comfort (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 273561
🎯 Longshots: 5637214
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #5, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,500
Win:4Northwind (15/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:5Hello Hot Rod (9/2)
Show:1Ham Sandwich (8/1)
Other contenders:7Mister Wu (10/1), 2Attila The Dun (5/2), 3Karaoke Hero (2/1)
Rest of field:6Mickeys Gold (30/1), 8Comfort J Byrd (6/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 352418
🎯 Longshots: 13728456
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #1, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000
Win:3One Horse Town (3/1)
Place:1Sudeikis (9/5)
Show:2Lennie G (4/1)
Other contenders:5Tacos And Tequila (10/1), 4Kiss For Lulu (6/1), 7Igniting Embers (12/1)
Rest of field:6Fast Pay (15/1), 8Practical Seven (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 312457
🎯 Longshots: 13452768
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #1, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000
Win:6Dive Bar Diva (4/1)
Place:7Flying Grace (5/2)
Show:8Bode's Lady (2/1)
Other contenders:4Shespendsmylute (6/1), 3Copper Vixen (9/2), 2Forgetful Lucy (10/1)
Rest of field:5Getluckyinkentucky (12/1), 1Spicy Whiskey Lass (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 876342
🎯 Longshots: 87643251
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #7, #8, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000
Win:4He's So Smooth (9/5)
Place:9My Name Is El Jefe (6/1)
Show:7Az Danger (3/1)
Other contenders:10Saree (9/2), 2Arizona Rocks (8/1), 3Cyber Sword (10/1)
Rest of field:8Black Shimmer (15/1), 6Trust The Karma (30/1), 5Helpmehelpyou (30/1), 1King Baldwin (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4791023
🎯 Longshots: 47109238156
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #9, #7, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $60,000
Win:3B D One (3/1)
Place:8Jennys Tamale (2/1)
Show:2Perfect Style (9/2)
Other contenders:9Daddys Favorite (5/1), 7Act Naturally (8/1), 4Untapit (10/1)
Rest of field:1Bam's Ky Gold (15/1), 5Marquee Attraction (15/1), 6Hanky Panky Girl (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 832974
🎯 Longshots: 389472156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #2, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $65,000
Win:3R R Bougie (7/5)
Place:2Sarah's Court (10/1)
Show:4Practical Dream (5/2)
Other contenders:1Pink Pacific (6/1), 5Chandon (5/1), 8Lazy Days (8/1)
Rest of field:6Tour Queen (10/1), 7Sahara Kara (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 345128
🎯 Longshots: 34825167
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #4, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $77,000
Win:4Let Him Be (4/5)
Place:5Leave Them Behind (3/1)
Show:7Holy Bullet (10/1)
Other contenders:3American Ranger Bb (5/1), 1Flags Finale (15/1)
Rest of field:6Jmark (8/1), 2Maximum Bull (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 453761
🎯 Longshots: 4571632
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #7, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #4 over #7 ($1 straight; box #4-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #7, #2, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #4 over #8 ($1 straight; box #4-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #3, #4, #6 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #3 over #7 ($1 straight; box #3-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #3, #7, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #3 over #2 ($1 straight; box #3-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #5, #1, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #1 over #3 ($1 straight; box #1-#3 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #3, #4, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #8 over #7 ($1 straight; box #8-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #8 over #7, #6, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #4 over #7 ($1 straight; box #4-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #9, #10, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #3 over #8 ($1 straight; box #3-#8 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #8, #9, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #3 over #4 ($1 straight; box #3-#4 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #4, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 10AI Exacta: #4 over #5 ($1 straight; box #4-#5 for cover)
Trifecta: #4 over #5, #3, #7 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.46 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
22Om Time Gal ⚠ high risk: 20-1 or longer30/1—3.6%+15.9%0.13%$0.13
TOTAL across 1 play:0.1%$0.13
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
⚠ High risk: 20-1 or longer. Since late June our longshot picks at these odds have won about 3 times in 100 and lost about half of every dollar bet; in maiden races they do worse still.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $22,550
Win:4Amazing Music (8/5)
Place:7Bucks Action (4/1)
Show:2Runnin Politician (3/1)
Other contenders:1Final Trial (8/1), 5Road Rules (15/1)
Rest of field:6Baal (15/1), 3Street Colors (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 427135
🎯 Longshots: 4725163
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #2, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:8Wild Steel (9/2)
Place:3Jawdropper (5/1)
Show:2Om Time Gal (30/1)
Other contenders:6Danjerus Cloud (8/1), 1Ridgehead (7/2), 5Ragazza Vincente (6/1)
Rest of field:4Real Good Game (4/1), 9Attila Style (15/1), 7Siempre Naman (8/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 831456
🎯 Longshots: 648293175
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #2, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $29,500
Win:3Pleasin N Teasin (5/1)
Place:2Legion Heiress (7/2)
Show:6Literallylyndee (8/1)
Other contenders:7Comfort Dance (4/1), 5Markofafighter (8/1)
Rest of field:1Zap Dancer (15/1), 4Malibu Comfort (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 237651
🎯 Longshots: 5637214
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #2, #6, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,500
Win:5Hello Hot Rod (9/2)
Place:3Karaoke Hero (2/1)
Show:1Ham Sandwich (8/1)
Other contenders:2Attila The Dun (5/2), 4Northwind (15/1), 7Mister Wu (10/1)
Rest of field:8Comfort J Byrd (6/1), 6Mickeys Gold (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 325187
🎯 Longshots: 13728456
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #3, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000
Win:1Sudeikis (9/5)
Place:3One Horse Town (3/1)
Show:4Kiss For Lulu (6/1)
Other contenders:2Lennie G (4/1), 5Tacos And Tequila (10/1), 7Igniting Embers (12/1)
Rest of field:6Fast Pay (15/1), 8Practical Seven (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 132457
🎯 Longshots: 13452768
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000
Win:8Bode's Lady (2/1)
Place:6Dive Bar Diva (4/1)
Show:7Flying Grace (5/2)
Other contenders:4Shespendsmylute (6/1), 3Copper Vixen (9/2), 2Forgetful Lucy (10/1)
Rest of field:5Getluckyinkentucky (12/1), 1Spicy Whiskey Lass (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 876342
🎯 Longshots: 87643251
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #6, #7, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000
Win:4He's So Smooth (9/5)
Place:10Saree (9/2)
Show:7Az Danger (3/1)
Other contenders:9My Name Is El Jefe (6/1), 3Cyber Sword (10/1), 2Arizona Rocks (8/1)
Rest of field:8Black Shimmer (15/1), 6Trust The Karma (30/1), 1King Baldwin (20/1), 5Helpmehelpyou (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4710923
🎯 Longshots: 47109238156
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #10, #7, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $60,000
Win:3B D One (3/1)
Place:8Jennys Tamale (2/1)
Show:7Act Naturally (8/1)
Other contenders:9Daddys Favorite (5/1), 2Perfect Style (9/2), 4Untapit (10/1)
Rest of field:1Bam's Ky Gold (15/1), 5Marquee Attraction (15/1), 6Hanky Panky Girl (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 839274
🎯 Longshots: 389472156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #7, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $65,000
Win:3R R Bougie (7/5)
Place:4Practical Dream (5/2)
Show:8Lazy Days (8/1)
Other contenders:5Chandon (5/1), 1Pink Pacific (6/1), 2Sarah's Court (10/1)
Rest of field:6Tour Queen (10/1), 7Sahara Kara (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 345182
🎯 Longshots: 34825167
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #8, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $77,000
Win:4Let Him Be (4/5)
Place:5Leave Them Behind (3/1)
Show:3American Ranger Bb (5/1)
Other contenders:7Holy Bullet (10/1), 6Jmark (8/1)
Rest of field:1Flags Finale (15/1), 2Maximum Bull (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 453672
🎯 Longshots: 4571632
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $22,550
Win:4Amazing Music (8/5)
Place:7Bucks Action (4/1)
Show:2Runnin Politician (3/1)
Other contenders:5Road Rules (15/1), 3Street Colors (10/1)
Rest of field:1Final Trial (8/1), 6Baal (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 427135
🎯 Longshots: 4725163
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #7, #2, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,000
Win:8Wild Steel (9/2)
Place:3Jawdropper (5/1)
Show:4Real Good Game (4/1)
Other contenders:6Danjerus Cloud (8/1), 1Ridgehead (7/2), 7Siempre Naman (8/1)
Rest of field:5Ragazza Vincente (6/1), 2Om Time Gal (30/1), 9Attila Style (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 843165
🎯 Longshots: 648293175
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #3, #4, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $29,500
Win:2Legion Heiress (7/2)
Place:3Pleasin N Teasin (5/1)
Show:7Comfort Dance (4/1)
Other contenders:5Markofafighter (8/1), 6Literallylyndee (8/1)
Rest of field:1Zap Dancer (15/1), 4Malibu Comfort (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 237561
🎯 Longshots: 5637214
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #7, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $24,500
Win:3Karaoke Hero (2/1)
Place:5Hello Hot Rod (9/2)
Show:1Ham Sandwich (8/1)
Other contenders:2Attila The Dun (5/2), 4Northwind (15/1), 8Comfort J Byrd (6/1)
Rest of field:7Mister Wu (10/1), 6Mickeys Gold (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 325187
🎯 Longshots: 13728456
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #5, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000
Win:1Sudeikis (9/5)
Place:3One Horse Town (3/1)
Show:4Kiss For Lulu (6/1)
Other contenders:2Lennie G (4/1), 5Tacos And Tequila (10/1), 7Igniting Embers (12/1)
Rest of field:6Fast Pay (15/1), 8Practical Seven (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 132457
🎯 Longshots: 13452768
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #3, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000
Win:8Bode's Lady (2/1)
Place:7Flying Grace (5/2)
Show:6Dive Bar Diva (4/1)
Other contenders:4Shespendsmylute (6/1), 3Copper Vixen (9/2), 2Forgetful Lucy (10/1)
Rest of field:5Getluckyinkentucky (12/1), 1Spicy Whiskey Lass (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 876342
🎯 Longshots: 87643251
🎫 Trifecta play: #8 over #7, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $45,000
Win:4He's So Smooth (9/5)
Place:9My Name Is El Jefe (6/1)
Show:10Saree (9/2)
Other contenders:7Az Danger (3/1), 3Cyber Sword (10/1), 2Arizona Rocks (8/1)
Rest of field:8Black Shimmer (15/1), 6Trust The Karma (30/1), 1King Baldwin (20/1), 5Helpmehelpyou (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 4710923
🎯 Longshots: 47109238156
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #9, #10, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $60,000
Win:3B D One (3/1)
Place:8Jennys Tamale (2/1)
Show:9Daddys Favorite (5/1)
Other contenders:2Perfect Style (9/2), 7Act Naturally (8/1), 4Untapit (10/1)
Rest of field:1Bam's Ky Gold (15/1), 5Marquee Attraction (15/1), 6Hanky Panky Girl (30/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 832974
🎯 Longshots: 389472156
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #8, #9, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $65,000
Win:3R R Bougie (7/5)
Place:4Practical Dream (5/2)
Show:1Pink Pacific (6/1)
Other contenders:5Chandon (5/1), 2Sarah's Court (10/1), 8Lazy Days (8/1)
Rest of field:6Tour Queen (10/1), 7Sahara Kara (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 345182
🎯 Longshots: 34825167
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #4, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 10  6 Furlongs · Dirt · Allowance · Purse $77,000
Win:4Let Him Be (4/5)
Place:5Leave Them Behind (3/1)
Show:3American Ranger Bb (5/1)
Other contenders:7Holy Bullet (10/1), 6Jmark (8/1)
Rest of field:1Flags Finale (15/1), 2Maximum Bull (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 453672
🎯 Longshots: 4571632
🎫 Trifecta play: #4 over #5, #3, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R3-5R3: #3,#5,#7 (69%) / R4: #3,#2,#1 (62%) / R5: #1,#3 (65%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 28%
Pick 3 R4-6R4: #3,#2,#1 (62%) / R5: #1,#3 (65%) / R6: #8,#7,#6 (66%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27%
Pick 3 R5-7R5: #1,#3 (65%) / R6: #8,#7,#6 (66%) / R7: #4,#10,#9 (63%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27%
Pick 3 R8-10R8: #3,#8,#7 (71%) / R9: #3,#4,#5 (69%) / R10: #4,#5 (72%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 35%
Pick 4 R5-8R5: #1,#3 (65%) / R6: #8,#7,#6 (66%) / R7: #4,#10,#9 (63%) / R8: #3,#8,#7 (71%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 19%
Pick 4 R7-10R7: #4,#10,#9 (63%) / R8: #3,#8,#7 (71%) / R9: #3,#4,#5 (69%) / R10: #4,#5 (72%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
ACT NATURALLYAMAZING MUSICAMERICAN RANGER BBARIZONA ROCKSATTILA STYLE
AZ DANGERB D ONEBAALBAM'S KY GOLDBLACK SHIMMER
BUCKS ACTIONCHANDONCOMFORT DANCECOMFORT J BYRDCOPPER VIXEN
DADDYS FAVORITEDANJERUS CLOUDDIVE BAR DIVAFAST PAYFINAL TRIAL
FLYING GRACEFORGETFUL LUCYGETLUCKYINKENTUCKYHAM SANDWICHHANKY PANKY GIRL
HELLO HOT RODHELPMEHELPYOUHOLY BULLETIGNITING EMBERSJAWDROPPER
JMARKKARAOKE HEROKING BALDWINKISS FOR LULULAZY DAYS
LEGION HEIRESSLENNIE GLET HIM BELITERALLYLYNDEEMALIBU COMFORT
MARQUEE ATTRACTIONMAXIMUM BULLMICKEYS GOLDMISTER WUMY NAME IS EL JEFE
OM TIME GALONE HORSE TOWNPERFECT STYLEPINK PACIFICPLEASIN N TEASIN
PRACTICAL SEVENR R BOUGIERAGAZZA VINCENTEREAL GOOD GAMERIDGEHEAD
RUNNIN POLITICIANSAHARA KARASARAH'S COURTSAREESHESPENDSMYLUTE
SPICY WHISKEY LASSSTREET COLORSSUDEIKISTACOS AND TEQUILATOUR QUEEN
UNTAPITWILD STEELZAP DANCER

 


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