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AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (53%). (2) Track specialist — 4 wins from 12 starts here (33%). (3) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Has won at FON on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (5) Trainer 'HIBDON MARK N' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'S', 'T']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Troubled Trip Comeback, Track Specialist, Won Here Before, Won at This Distance, Stable on Fire.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: 3-4wd; bid 5wd str.

LGBM: 66 (2/5) CatBoost: 95 (2/5) XGB: 100 (1/5) LGBM-LS: 82 (3/5) CatBoost-LS: 98 (2/5) XGB-LS: 64 (2/5) Win Prob: 74.9% Value Score: 2.68 ★ ML: 1.80 (9/5) Overlay %: -8.22 Fair Odds: 4.09 (7/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	B
Finish Pos	A	C
Dirt Speed	B	A
Turf Speed	D	C
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	B
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	B
Sprint FPS	B	C
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

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AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (85) — 19 pts above recent average. (2) Won last 2 consecutive starts. (3) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 79 vs field 75). (4) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Has won at FON on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Speed improved +7 pts then +12 pts in last 2 starts (66 → 73 → 85) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (7) Trainer 'GONZALEZ ISAI V' has 4 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'O', 'V']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Averages 70.6 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 63.0 in other configs (7 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Win Streak Momentum, Form Surge, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Late Kick Advantage, Return to Proven Setup, Won at This Distance, Stable on Fire.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: 3-w 3/16;drove clr. (2) Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). (3) Last race was career-best speed (85) — bounce risk after peak effort. (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. (5) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.6 pts: [85, 73, 66, 59, 71]) — unpredictable performer. (6) Two consecutive 5+ pt speed jumps (66 → 73 → 85) and last race speed is well above career average (68) — high bounce risk after back-to-back peak efforts.

LGBM: 100 (1/5) CatBoost: 100 (1/5) XGB: 98 (2/5) LGBM-LS: 85 (2/5) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/5) XGB-LS: 38 (3/5) Win Prob: 79% Value Score: 2.43 ★ ML: 1.40 (10/11) Overlay %: -13.43 Fair Odds: 4.24 (7/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	F	C
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	C	C
Dirt Speed	B	A
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	B	B
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	B
Early Pace	F	C
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	F	D
Route FPS	F	D
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	B	B
3rd Party Ratings	B	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	C	C

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AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 4 wins from 10 starts (40%). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (59%). (3) Won last 2 consecutive starts. (4) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 79 vs field 75). (5) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Returning from 33-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. (7) Has won at FON on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L', 'S', 'T', 'V']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Win Streak Momentum, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Late Kick Advantage, Sharp Return Workout, Hot Jockey, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 33 days. (2) Trip note from last race: Stalked;4-w bid;drvng. (3) Last race was career-best speed (80) — bounce risk after peak effort. (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 33 days since last race.

LGBM: 53 (3/5) CatBoost: 67 (3/5) XGB: 56 (3/5) LGBM-LS: 58 (4/5) CatBoost-LS: 69 (3/5) XGB-LS: 20 (5/5) Win Prob: 53% Value Score: 3.05 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -0.35 Fair Odds: 4.88 (9/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	C	B
Turf Speed	C	C
Distance Speed	C	B
Trainer Effectiveness	F	D
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	A	A
Sprint FPS	C	C
Route FPS	C	B
Trainer Effectiveness	F	D
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (76) well above field median (67). (2) Has won at today's distance (880 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Has won at FON on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (4) Last race E1 pace (97.0) was 4.8 pts above personal avg (92.2) and horse still finished 9th — pace collapse victim; expect bounce if today's fractions are softer. (5) Career-best figure (87) buried in races 4–10 back — 20 pts above race median and 15 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (6) Averages 79.3 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 67.3 in other configs (7 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Pace Collapse Victim, Won Here Before, Hidden Figure, Return to Proven Setup, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: Tired 4wd. (3) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 14.7 pts: [47, 72, 72, 76, 87]) — unpredictable performer.

LGBM: 100 (1/6) CatBoost: 90 (2/6) XGB: 100 (1/6) LGBM-LS: 50 (5/6) CatBoost-LS: 93 (2/6) XGB-LS: 81 (2/6) Win Prob: 49.1% Value Score: 2.94 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: 1.17 Fair Odds: 4.59 (9/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	C
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	C	B
Turf Speed	B	B
Distance Speed	C	B
Trainer Effectiveness	F	C
Jockey Effectiveness	C	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	D
Sprint FPS	B	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	F	C
Jockey Effectiveness	C	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	C	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($5,000 → $3,500). (2) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (46%). (3) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 92 vs field 89). (4) Fourth race back from a 59-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (5) Has won at today's distance (880 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Trainer 'GONZALEZ ISAI V' has 4 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Class Drop, Hot Jockey, Early Speed Edge, Stable on Fire, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: Inside speed;gamely. (3) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.4 pts: [75, 62, 79, 68, 83]) — unpredictable performer.

LGBM: 75 (3/6) CatBoost: 100 (1/6) XGB: 99 (2/6) LGBM-LS: 94 (2/6) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/6) XGB-LS: 100 (1/6) Win Prob: 72.7% Value Score: 3.04 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -6.73 Fair Odds: 4.82 (9/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C
Finish Pos	B	C
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	D	B
Trainer Effectiveness	C	B
Jockey Effectiveness	B	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	B	A
Trainer Effectiveness	C	B
Jockey Effectiveness	B	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	D	F
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($5,000 → $3,500). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (53%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). (4) Strong speed 2 back (76), modest dip last out (68) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (5) Has won at today's distance (880 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Has won at FON on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (7) Trainer 'HIBDON MARK N' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Class Drop, Hot Jockey, Form Reversal, Stable on Fire.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Trip note from last race: Inside turn;not enough. (2) No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race.

LGBM: 77 (2/6) CatBoost: 73 (3/6) XGB: 95 (3/6) LGBM-LS: 9 (6/6) CatBoost-LS: 75 (3/6) XGB-LS: 20 (5/6) Win Prob: 60.9% Value Score: 2.91 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -5.25 Fair Odds: 5.39 (9/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	C	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	F	B
Mid Pace	D	B
Late Pace	A	C
Finish Pos	C	D
Dirt Speed	C	B
Turf Speed	C	C
Distance Speed	C	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	F	B
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	D	C
Route FPS	D	D
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	B	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	F	B
Mid Pace	D	F
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($10,000 → $5,000). (2) Speed average (74) well above field median (65). (3) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (55%). (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (44%). (5) In the money in last 3 consecutive starts. (6) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 81 vs field 72). (7) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (8) Has won at FON on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (9) Career-best figure (84) buried in races 4–10 back — 19 pts above race median and 8 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (10) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'U', 'V']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (11) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Consistent In-The-Money, Hot Trainer, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Class Drop, Late Kick Advantage, Hidden Figure, Hot Jockey, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Trip note from last race: Vied inside; all out. (3) No workout in last 30 days despite 20 days since last race.

LGBM: 100 (1/6) CatBoost: 100 (1/6) XGB: 100 (1/6) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/6) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/6) XGB-LS: 67 (2/6) Win Prob: 73.5% Value Score: 2.41 ★ ML: 1.60 (9/5) Overlay %: -11.24 Fair Odds: 4.20 (7/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	A	B
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($12,500 → $5,000). (2) Speed average (70) well above field median (65). (3) Career-best speed figure (75) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (4) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 85 vs field 72). (5) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (6) Dropping in class ($5,000 vs last $12,500) after a 222-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Class Drop After Rest, Career-Best Recent Figure, Closer in Pace Duel, Class Drop, Late Kick Advantage.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 222 days. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). (3) Moving from a route to a sprint today. (4) Trip note from last race: Off pace;3wd;no impct. (5) First start at FON — never raced here before (last seen at: PRM).

LGBM: 63 (3/6) CatBoost: 54 (3/6) XGB: 43 (3/6) LGBM-LS: 26 (6/6) CatBoost-LS: 55 (3/6) XGB-LS: 0 Win Prob: 58% Value Score: 2.93 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -5.90 Fair Odds: 6.19 (11/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	F	D
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	B	B
Dirt Speed	C	C
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	C	C
Trainer Effectiveness	C	D
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	C	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	F	D
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	D	D
Route FPS	F	D
Trainer Effectiveness	C	D
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	C	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 4 wins from 7 starts (57%). (2) Career-best speed figure (74) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (41%). (4) In the money in last 4 consecutive starts. (5) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 94 vs field 84). (6) Strong speed 2 back (74), modest dip last out (69) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['L', 'O', 'T']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Averages 67.8 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 59.7 in other configs (4 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Consistent In-The-Money, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Career-Best Recent Figure, Troubled Trip Comeback, Return to Proven Setup, Hot Jockey, Early Speed Edge, Form Reversal.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (3) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (4) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (3 of 4 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: 2path; no match lane. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 10.1 pts: [69, 74, 61, 71, 49]) — unpredictable performer.

LGBM: 78 (2/6) CatBoost: 75 (2/6) XGB: 73 (2/6) LGBM-LS: 68 (3/6) CatBoost-LS: 74 (2/6) XGB-LS: 100 (1/6) Win Prob: 71% Value Score: 3.14 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -5.48 Fair Odds: 4.83 (9/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	D
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	D	C
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	B	A
Jockey Effectiveness	B	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	D	D
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	A
Jockey Effectiveness	B	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Finish positions improving over last 4 starts. (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (47%). (3) Big last-race effort (77) — 9 pts above recent average. (4) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 80 vs field 76). (5) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (6) Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Has won at FON on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'V']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 8/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Late Kick Advantage, Improving Finisher, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($2,500 → $3,500). (2) Trip note from last race: 4-5wd rally; driving.

LGBM: 82 (2/6) CatBoost: 100 (1/6) XGB: 100 (1/6) LGBM-LS: 100 (1/6) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/6) XGB-LS: 64 (3/6) Win Prob: 55.2% Value Score: 2.33 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -5.24 Fair Odds: 4.42 (7/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	F	C
Late Pace	A	A
Finish Pos	B	C
Dirt Speed	C	B
Turf Speed	A	A
Distance Speed	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	C	B
Sprint FPS	B	D
Route FPS	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	F	D
Mid Pace	F	D
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L', 'S']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Rising in class today ($2,500 → $3,500). (2) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (3) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (4) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Inside; mild bid. (6) Rising in class ($2,500 → $3,500) after finishing 3 last out — double negative. (7) 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

LGBM: 76 (4/6) CatBoost: 74 (4/6) XGB: 80 (4/6) LGBM-LS: 58 (3/6) CatBoost-LS: 82 (3/6) XGB-LS: 54 (4/6) Win Prob: 53.3% Value Score: 2.89 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -1.21 Fair Odds: 4.81 (9/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	C
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	B	B
Finish Pos	B	C
Dirt Speed	D	B
Turf Speed	C	B
Distance Speed	C	B
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	C	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	C
Sprint FPS	A	C
Route FPS	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	C	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	A	C
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($5,000 → $3,500). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (55%). (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (46%). (4) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (5) Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Class Drop, Hot Jockey, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (2) 0 wins from 4 career starts on off tracks. (3) Trip note from last race: Swung 5-w;needed more. (4) No workout in last 30 days despite 20 days since last race.

LGBM: 100 (1/6) CatBoost: 89 (2/6) XGB: 84 (3/6) LGBM-LS: 70 (2/6) CatBoost-LS: 88 (2/6) XGB-LS: 100 (1/6) Win Prob: 54.4% Value Score: 3.28 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: 0.35 Fair Odds: 4.90 (9/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	D	C
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	B	C
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	F	C
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	B	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	C	D
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	B	B
Sprint FPS	C	D
Route FPS	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	B	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	C	D
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Returning from 47-day layoff with a recent workout. (2) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 88 vs field 81). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'L']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 5/10 — angles: Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Early Speed Edge.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Has not raced in 47 days. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: 2-3w bid; willingly. (5) Last race was career-best speed (54) — bounce risk after peak effort.

LGBM: 77 (2/9) CatBoost: 67 (2/9) XGB: 89 (2/9) LGBM-LS: 0 CatBoost-LS: 63 (2/9) XGB-LS: 100 (1/9) Win Prob: 50% Value Score: 3.52 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: -0.40 Fair Odds: 6.24 (11/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	F
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	D
Late Pace	C	D
Finish Pos	F	D
Dirt Speed	A	D
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	A	D
Trainer Effectiveness	B	C
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	F
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	D
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	C
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	A
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	C	F
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Speed average (55) well above field median (44). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (52%). (3) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 9 wins from 34 starts (26%). (4) Career-best speed figure (55) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (5) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (59%). (6) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 75 vs field 59). (7) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (8) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['F', 'T', 'V']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 10/10 — angles: Class Superiority, Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer, Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Late Kick Advantage, Hot Jockey.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (2) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (3) Trip note from last race: 3-4w mve far trn;game.

LGBM: 100 (1/9) CatBoost: 100 (1/9) XGB: 100 (1/9) LGBM-LS: 34 (8/9) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/9) XGB-LS: 61 (3/9) Win Prob: 61.1% Value Score: 2.58 ★ ML: 2.00 (9/5) Overlay %: -8.50 Fair Odds: 5.58 (11/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	F
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	A	D
Late Pace	A	B
Finish Pos	D	A
Dirt Speed	A	D
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	A	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	F
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	A	D
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	A	D
Route FPS	A	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	A
3rd Party Ratings	A	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	F
Early Pace	C	F
Mid Pace	C	F
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Career-best speed figure (49) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (2) Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 68 vs field 59). (3) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (4) One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['F', 'L', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Late Kick Advantage, Sharp Gate Work.

⚠ Concerns:(1) First time at today's distance. (2) Today's distance is longer than any previous start. (3) Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). (4) Trip note from last race: Off slw;3-w;not enough. (5) Post 7 in a 10-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.

LGBM: 71 (3/9) CatBoost: 55 (3/9) XGB: 62 (3/9) LGBM-LS: 48 (6/9) CatBoost-LS: 55 (3/9) XGB-LS: 14 (7/9) Win Prob: 38.4% Value Score: 3.24 ★ ML: 5.00 (9/2) Overlay %: -1.27 Fair Odds: 8.45 (7/1) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — E · Lone early

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	F
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	C	F
Late Pace	A	C
Finish Pos	B	A
Dirt Speed	B	D
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	C	F
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	F
Early Pace	B	C
Mid Pace	C	F
Late Pace	A	C
Sprint FPS	C	F
Route FPS	C	F
Trainer Effectiveness	C	C
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	A	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	F
Early Pace	C	F
Mid Pace	C	F
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($5,000 → $2,500). (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (3) Fourth race back from a 125-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. (4) Career-best figure (75) buried in races 4–10 back — 12 pts above race median and 11 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (5) Averages 66.0 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 58.0 in other configs (4 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Closer in Pace Duel, Class Drop, Hidden Figure, Return to Proven Setup, Classic Fourth Race Pattern.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (2) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). (3) Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: 4-w 3/16;no final bid. (5) Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. (6) No workout in last 30 days despite 20 days since last race. (7) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 16.2 pts: [62, 61, 64, 68, 28]) — unpredictable performer. (8) 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

LGBM: 74 (3/7) CatBoost: 80 (3/7) XGB: 94 (4/7) LGBM-LS: 30 (7/7) CatBoost-LS: 76 (3/7) XGB-LS: 33 (5/7) Win Prob: 50.7% Value Score: 2.64 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -5.85 Fair Odds: 6.50 (11/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	D
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	F	D
Late Pace	B	C
Finish Pos	D	D
Dirt Speed	F	C
Turf Speed	F	D
Distance Speed	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	D	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	D	D
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	D	D
Route FPS	F	D
Trainer Effectiveness	D	D
Jockey Effectiveness	D	C
3rd Party Ratings	D	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	D	D
Mid Pace	F	D
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Dropping in class today ($5,000 → $2,500). (2) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (45%). (3) Big last-race effort (62) — 15 pts above recent average. (4) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (46%). (5) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 89 vs field 80). (6) Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (7) Trainer 'GONZALEZ ISAI V' has 4 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (8) Last race E1 pace (98.0) was 9.0 pts above personal avg (89.0) and horse still finished 6th — pace collapse victim; expect bounce if today's fractions are softer. (9) Career-best figure (77) buried in races 4–10 back — 14 pts above race median and 11 pts above recent form — market has forgotten the peak effort. (10) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Hot Trainer, Pace Collapse Victim, Class Drop, Hidden Figure, Hot Jockey, Early Speed Edge, Won at This Distance, Stable on Fire.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Moving from a sprint to a route today. (3) 0 wins from 4 career starts on off tracks. (4) Trip note from last race: 4-5wd; weaken. (5) Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. (6) Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 27.5 pts: [62, 4, 66, 71, 60]) — unpredictable performer.

LGBM: 100 (1/7) CatBoost: 100 (1/7) XGB: 98 (3/7) LGBM-LS: 41 (5/7) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/7) XGB-LS: 73 (2/7) Win Prob: 60.9% Value Score: 3.57 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -1.32 Fair Odds: 5.36 (9/2) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	F	F
Finish Pos	D	F
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	A	B
Distance Speed	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	B
3rd Party Ratings	D	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	F
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	D	D
Sprint FPS	A	B
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	B
3rd Party Ratings	D	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) 0 wins from 5 career starts on off tracks. (4) Trip note from last race: Press 4wd; empty. (5) Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts).

LGBM: 86 (2/7) CatBoost: 98 (2/7) XGB: 100 (1/7) LGBM-LS: 76 (3/7) CatBoost-LS: 87 (2/7) XGB-LS: 54 (3/7) Win Prob: 62.7% Value Score: 2.86 ★ ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -6.32 Fair Odds: 5.41 (9/2) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	A	C
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	C	C
Finish Pos	B	D
Dirt Speed	F	C
Turf Speed	C	C
Distance Speed	F	C
Trainer Effectiveness	C	D
Jockey Effectiveness	F	F
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	B	C
Route FPS	A	B
Trainer Effectiveness	C	D
Jockey Effectiveness	F	F
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	C
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (60) — 12 pts above recent average. (2) Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. (3) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Has won at FON on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Closer in Pace Duel, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Speed average (47) well below field median (53). (2) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (3 of 5 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: 4wd; bid 1/16. (4) Last race was career-best speed (60) — bounce risk after peak effort.

LGBM: 77 (4/9) CatBoost: 74 (4/9) XGB: 85 (2/9) LGBM-LS: 11 (9/9) CatBoost-LS: 70 (4/9) XGB-LS: 39 (7/9) Win Prob: 41.4% Value Score: 3.14 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: -2.33 Fair Odds: 8.23 (7/1) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	F	F
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	D	D
Finish Pos	D	D
Dirt Speed	C	D
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	B	C
Trainer Effectiveness	B	A
Jockey Effectiveness	D	D
3rd Party Ratings	B	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	F
Early Pace	D	C
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	C	D
Route FPS	B	B
Trainer Effectiveness	B	A
Jockey Effectiveness	D	D
3rd Party Ratings	B	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	F
Early Pace	C	C
Mid Pace	B	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Big last-race effort (66) — 16 pts above recent average. (2) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (3) Has won at FON on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'S', 'T', 'V']) yet still finished 1st — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (3 of 5 starts). (3) Trip note from last race: Gain insd 1st;mild drv. (4) Last race was career-best speed (66) — bounce risk after peak effort.

LGBM: 100 (1/9) CatBoost: 100 (1/9) XGB: 100 (1/9) LGBM-LS: 26 (7/9) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/9) XGB-LS: 41 (6/9) Win Prob: 60.3% Value Score: 3.33 ★ ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -5.57 Fair Odds: 6.98 (6/1) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	B	F
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	D
Finish Pos	C	B
Dirt Speed	A	C
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	A	C
Trainer Effectiveness	C	D
Jockey Effectiveness	B	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	D	D
Sprint FPS	C	C
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	C	D
Jockey Effectiveness	B	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	F
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (55%). (2) Career-best speed figure (59) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. (3) Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 88 vs field 85). (4) Has won at FON on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (5) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['B', 'D', 'T']) yet still finished 3rd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Career-Best Recent Figure, Hot Trainer, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Early Speed Edge.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). (3) Trip note from last race: 3wd; bid; empty. (4) Post 7 in a 10-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.

LGBM: 84 (3/9) CatBoost: 94 (2/9) XGB: 85 (3/9) LGBM-LS: 74 (3/9) CatBoost-LS: 83 (3/9) XGB-LS: 56 (2/9) Win Prob: 51.2% Value Score: 3.89 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: -1.48 Fair Odds: 7.55 (7/1) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EEE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	A	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	B
Late Pace	B	D
Finish Pos	A	A
Dirt Speed	D	D
Turf Speed	C	D
Distance Speed	C	C
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	B	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	D
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	B	D
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	C
Late Pace	C	D
Sprint FPS	B	B
Route FPS	B	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	B	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	D
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	F
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	F	F
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (51%). (2) Strong trainer/jockey combo - 2 wins from 7 starts (29%). (3) Strong speed 2 back (74), modest dip last out (67) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (4) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'O', 'S', 'T', 'U', 'V']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (5) Averages 66.7 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 59.5 in other configs (6 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (6) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 7/10 — angles: Hot Trainer-Jockey Pairing, Hot Trainer, Troubled Trip Comeback, Return to Proven Setup, Form Reversal.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). (2) Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. (3) Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 6 recent starts). (4) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (4 of 6 starts). (5) Trip note from last race: Last away; move up 4wd. (6) 0 wins from 8 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.

LGBM: 80 (3/9) CatBoost: 82 (4/9) XGB: 81 (5/9) LGBM-LS: 39 (6/9) CatBoost-LS: 87 (4/9) XGB-LS: 73 (3/9) Win Prob: 44.4% Value Score: 3.27 ★ ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: -2.28 Fair Odds: 7.84 (7/1) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	B	C
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	A	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	F	D
Finish Pos	F	F
Dirt Speed	A	A
Turf Speed	D	C
Distance Speed	D	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	D	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	D	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	C	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	C	C
3rd Party Ratings	D	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	B	A
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (46%). (2) Strong speed 2 back (78), modest dip last out (72) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. (3) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (4) Has won at FON on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (5) Trainer 'GONZALEZ ISAI V' has 4 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now. (6) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'O', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 4th — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (7) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 6/10 — angles: Won at This Distance, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Hot Jockey, Form Reversal, Stable on Fire.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (2) 0 wins from 8 career starts on off tracks. (3) Trip note from last race: 6wd lane; not enough. (4) Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board.

LGBM: 98 (2/9) CatBoost: 95 (2/9) XGB: 86 (3/9) LGBM-LS: 41 (5/9) CatBoost-LS: 99 (2/9) XGB-LS: 42 (6/9) Win Prob: 58.1% Value Score: 3.5 ★ ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -4.95 Fair Odds: 7.57 (7/1) O/U: Underlay

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	D	D
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	B
Late Pace	C	C
Finish Pos	D	D
Dirt Speed	B	B
Turf Speed	C	B
Distance Speed	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	B
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	B	B
Late Pace	A	B
Sprint FPS	C	B
Route FPS	B	A
Trainer Effectiveness	B	B
Jockey Effectiveness	A	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	B
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	A	C
Early Pace	C	B
Mid Pace	C	C
Late Pace	C	C

★ Free Preview

AI Performances Chart

AI Speed AI Opponent Performance Trend

Chart Guide (2.0.35)

Bubbles: Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic); Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position; Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin; Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
Connecting Line: Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
Line Symbol: ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
Days Between Races: Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
Shaded Band (Bollinger): Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
Performance Trend: Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
Dashed Reference Line: AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race

✓ Positives:(1) Hot trainer - high ITM rate (51%). (2) Big last-race effort (74) — 10 pts above recent average. (3) Hot jockey — high ITM rate (44%). (4) Has won at today's distance (1320 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. (5) Has won at FON on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. (6) Speed improved +12 pts then +8 pts in last 2 starts (54 → 66 → 74) — trainer is progressively building fitness. (7) Had documented trouble last race (codes: ['D', 'L', 'T', 'U']) yet still finished 2nd — a clean trip today sets up a form reversal. (8) Averages 68.6 speed pts in today's distance/surface configuration vs 62.2 in other configs (5 qualifying starts) — returning to ideal setup. (9) Pick Pony Daily Edge Radar pick — value score 9/10 — angles: Big Last Effort, Form Surge, Hot Trainer, Troubled Trip Comeback, Won Here Before, Hot Jockey, Return to Proven Setup, Won at This Distance.

⚠ Concerns:(1) Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). (2) Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. (3) Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (3 of 5 starts). (4) Trip note from last race: Pace 3-4wd;caught late. (5) 0 wins from post 6 in 3 recent starts. (6) Two consecutive 5+ pt speed jumps (54 → 66 → 74) and last race speed is well above career average (65) — high bounce risk after back-to-back peak efforts.

LGBM: 100 (1/9) CatBoost: 100 (1/9) XGB: 100 (1/9) LGBM-LS: 53 (3/9) CatBoost-LS: 100 (1/9) XGB-LS: 85 (2/9) Win Prob: 63.5% Value Score: 4.24 ★ ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: -2.77 Fair Odds: 7.21 (6/1) O/U: Fair

Score Definitions

LGBM: LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
CatBoost: CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
XGB: XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
LGBM-LS: LightGBM Longshot ranker (0–100) — trained with odds-weighted samples that upweight longshot winners. Higher = stronger longshot profile. Rank in parentheses shows position within the field.
CatBoost-LS: CatBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using CatBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
XGB-LS: XGBoost Longshot ranker (0–100) — equivalent longshot model using XGBoost. Higher = stronger longshot profile.
Win Prob: LightGBM estimated win probability expressed as a percentage. This is a raw model output, not normalized to sum to 100% across the field — use it for comparison rather than as an absolute probability.
Value Score: Win Prob divided by the market-implied probability (derived from morning line). Values above 1.0 mean the model sees more win chance than the odds imply — a ★ star appears when Value Score ≥ 1.3, indicating a 30%+ model edge over the market.
ML: Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
Overlay %: How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
Fair Odds: Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
O/U: Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds

Track Bias by Lane — FON

Lane Bias Guide

Bar Direction: Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
Color: Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
Bias Score: Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
Races: Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.

Race Pace Bias — EE · Fast

Race Pace Bias Guide

Bar Height & Direction: Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
Race Shape: Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
Pace Category: FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
Flag (★): A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.

Total Pace — FON

Total Pace Guide

Bar Segments: Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
Bar Height: Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
Grades & Rankings: Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

E1 / E2 / LP Pace Positions

E1 — Early

E2 — Mid

LP — Stretch

Performance vs. Peers

Performance vs. Peers Guide

Bars (per post): Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
Trend Line: Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
Horizontal Line: Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
Color Circles: Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
Border: Thicker border = this horse’s post position.

Figure Comparison

Rating: The three Pick Pony algorithm ratings (Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3) that make up the overall PP AI Rating — higher is a stronger contender rating.
Speed: Career average speed, recent 3-race average, and last-race speed figure — spot horses in improving or declining form.
Pace: Average Early (E1), Mid (E2), and Stretch (LP) pace figures — reveals pace-setters vs. closers vs. all-the-way types.
This horse: The horse whose stats card is open is highlighted with a darker column background.

Winning Profiles

Axes: X: Win % from last 10 starts — Y: In-the-money % (top-3 finishes) from last 10 starts.
Quadrants: Consistent Winners (top-right): high win & ITM — reliable performers.
Place Threats (top-left): boards often but doesn’t win often — good exacta/trifecta angles.
Streaky (bottom-right): wins occasionally, misses the board often — all-or-nothing.
Developing (bottom-left): still finding form — longshot territory.
Reference Lines: Dashed lines mark field averages. Dots to the right win more; dots higher board more.
This horse: Highlighted with a gold border and larger dot.

AI Model Comparison

Winner Models (green): LGBM, CatBoost, and XGBoost trained to predict race winners. Higher score = stronger contender.
Longshot Models (red): LGBM-LS, CatBoost-LS, and XGB-LS trained to find high-value longshots. Higher score = stronger longshot candidate.
This horse: Highlighted with a darker column background.

Race Pace Simulation

Race Pace Simulation Guide

Slider: Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
Predicted Finish Order: Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
Pace Scenario: Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
Track Bias: Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
Boxed Indicator: Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
Running Styles: E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.

E1 — Early E2 — Mid LP — Stretch

🏁 Gate Finish 🏁

Track Bias ◀ Closer Speed ▶ 0

Stat	vs. Current Card	vs. All Horses
Averages Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Pick Pony AI Rating	A	B
Pace Trip Longshot	—	—
Connections Longshot	—	—
Situational Longshot	—	—
Speed	C	C
Early Pace	B	B
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	B	C
Finish Pos	A	B
Dirt Speed	D	B
Turf Speed	D	C
Distance Speed	F	B
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Recent Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	A	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	D	C
Sprint FPS	A	A
Route FPS	A	A
Trainer Effectiveness	A	A
Jockey Effectiveness	A	B
3rd Party Ratings	A	C
Predictions AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data
Speed	C	D
Early Pace	B	A
Mid Pace	A	A
Late Pace	C	C

TL;DR

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Fonner Park Picks – April 10, 2026
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Fonner Park Picks – April 10, 2026

Fast dirt track favors front-runners and stalkers from posts 5-7 in 1,320f sprints; post 5 strong in 880f. Trainer Mark Hibdon and Isai Gonzalez active with multiple entries; Race 7 allowance is feature.

Race 1 – 1320f OClm 10000

Spin The Breeze (2) tops with sharp form and class fit in speed-favoring setup. Tiffany's Ferrari (1) close second off class drop. Lady Of Devon (6) solid workouts; note bias edge.

Race 2 – 880f Clm 3500n1x

Holy Bayou (4) leads with hot form in claimers. Lovely Sassicaia (5) drops off better races; strong post bias. Pedro Perez (3) consistent placer.

Race 3 – 1320f Clm 5000b

Army Kid (3) fits class drop in stalker-friendly pace. Doris Avenue (6) strong last out with bias advantage. On A Dare (5) value from favored post.

Race 4 – 1830f Clm 3500n1x

Wicked Rose (1) consistent form dropping to claimers. Ricky Bobby (5) class drop from allowance. Karaoke (3) improving workouts.

Race 5 – 1320f Md Sp Wt

Visionary Line (3) sharp maiden form and peak fitness. Queen Of The Den (2) tough debut drop. Jp's Golden Ticket (7) strong works and post bias.

Race 6 – 1830f Clm 2500n1y

Lexington River (8) strong finishes in claimers. City Of Love (6) sharp class drop. Main Dude (1) gate speed.

Race 7 – 1320f Alw 16200n2l

She's A Caution (5) sharp form and ideal post bias as favorite. Mangos Casa (7) recent win at level. New Expectations (2) improving stalker.

Race 8 – 1320f Clm 5000b

Funtimegirl (5) back-to-back finishes with bias edge. Peach Street (6) class drop off layoff. Smiling Lady (3) consistent speed figures.

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Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet for Fonner Park – Racing News and Analysis for April 10, 2026

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Fonner Park Picks – April 10, 2026

Race 1 – 1320f OClm 10000

Race 2 – 880f Clm 3500n1x

Race 3 – 1320f Clm 5000b

Race 4 – 1830f Clm 3500n1x

Race 5 – 1320f Md Sp Wt

Race 6 – 1830f Clm 2500n1y

Race 7 – 1320f Alw 16200n2l

Race 8 – 1320f Clm 5000b

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