Pick Pony Picks – Consensus Expert Picks for Churchill Downs, November 15, 2026.


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Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony's AI Picks.

How often our pick wins, by its price

AI Ensemble top picks grouped by morning-line odds.

0%13%26%39%51%Odds-on to 5/2: 41.1% from 2,646 racesOdds-on to 5/241.1%5/2 to 5/1: 30.0% from 2,427 races5/2 to 5/130.0%Longer than 5/1: 30.2% from 86 racesLonger than 5/130.2%

Short-priced selections are where the model is strongest.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Odds-on to 5/241.1%2,646
5/2 to 5/130.0%2,427
Longer than 5/130.2%86

Consensus Expert Picks

Consensus rankings based on 3 experts. Scoring: 1st pick = 4 pts, 2nd = 3 pts, 3rd = 2 pts, 4th = 1 pt. Agreement % = share of experts that included each horse. A gold star (⭐) next to a horse means Pick Pony's AI independently ranks that horse #1 as well — historically the strongest-hitting subset of picks. A recycle mark (↻) means that AI pick is the re-ranked one, after this morning's official scratches and surface changes were applied.

Race 1

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:1 – Nilo's Rose (2-1) ⭐3/3100.0%9 pts
Place:2 – Crushed Ice (6-1)2/366.7%5 pts
Show:8 – Beach Dancer (8-1)1/333.3%4 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:5 – Pens Street (2-1)1/333.3%4 pts
Alt 2:7 – Sunset Harbour (30-1)1/333.3%1 pts
Alt 3:6 – Acousticat (15-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 4:3 – Cora's Legacy (8-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 5:4 – Ce La Vi Charli (6-1)0/30.0%0 pts

Race 2

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:5 – Song Of Songs (2-1) ⭐2/366.7%8 pts
Place:4 – Don't Be Salty (1-1)2/366.7%7 pts
Show:6 – Heartbeat (4-1)2/366.7%3 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:7 – Beara Peninsula (10-1)1/333.3%3 pts
Alt 2:2 – Leafology (4-1)1/333.3%2 pts
Alt 3:3 – Freak City (30-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 4:1 – Fasta Lavista Baby (50-1)0/30.0%0 pts

Race 3

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:2 – Carol's Melody (2-1)3/3100.0%12 pts
Place:4 – Tempting Eve (12-1)2/366.7%4 pts
Show:1 – Tetiaroa (4-1)1/333.3%3 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:6 – Huck's Agenda (1-1)1/333.3%2 pts
Alt 2:7 – Just Do Believe (8-1)1/333.3%2 pts
Alt 3:5 – Good Call (8-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 4:3 – Mom's Cheesecake (15-1)0/30.0%0 pts

Race 4

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:4 – Celtic Mo (2-1)2/366.7%7 pts
Place:1 – Goal To Go (4-1)2/366.7%6 pts
Show:5 – Prove Me Wrong (20-1)2/366.7%3 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:6 – Mined That Gold (6-1)1/333.3%4 pts
Alt 2:2 – Very Royal (4-1)1/333.3%3 pts
Alt 3:3 – Chasing Em (8-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 4:7 – Mo Que (5-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 5:8 – Shamrock Guard (12-1)0/30.0%0 pts

Race 5

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:8 – Eleos (3-1) ⭐2/366.7%7 pts
Place:4 – Rank (4-1)2/366.7%6 pts
Show:7 – Bluebeard (2-1)2/366.7%5 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:3 – Justice (6-1)1/333.3%3 pts
Alt 2:2 – Patriot Moon (8-1)1/333.3%2 pts
Alt 3:5 – Magic Moose (15-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 4:1 – Sparked (6-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 5:6 – Leading Off (20-1)0/30.0%0 pts

Race 6

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:3 – Mackinac (5-1) ⭐2/366.7%8 pts
Place:1 – Ships Inn (8-1)2/366.7%5 pts
Show:8 – Ms. Jay Dee Em (10-1)2/366.7%5 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:10 – Twirling Claire (3-1)1/333.3%3 pts
Alt 2:4 – Ratu Jawa (6-1)1/333.3%2 pts
Alt 3:16 – Storm Cloud Rising (10-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 4:2 – Lady Revenge (10-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 5:9 – Aldene (8-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 6:12 – Sunny Ray (6-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 7:11 – Quick To Charm (30-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 8:14 – Cactus Cairo (10-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 9:5 – Cotillard (20-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 10:13 – Black Cherry (12-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 11:7 – Solemn Vow (30-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 12:15 – Windy Houston (20-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 13:6 – Coco G (15-1)0/30.0%0 pts

Race 7

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:4 – Easy Dial (6-1) ⭐2/366.7%8 pts
Place:10 – Pezzonovante (4-1)2/366.7%5 pts
Show:9 – Culprit (3-1)1/333.3%4 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:6 – T V Channel (8-1)1/333.3%3 pts
Alt 2:3 – Swamp King (10-1)1/333.3%2 pts
Alt 3:2 – Our Standard (12-1)1/333.3%1 pts
Alt 4:5 – Refined Design (20-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 5:7 – Dewy's Denali (20-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 6:1 – Surfin' M (5-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 7:8 – Bagg O Time (6-1)0/30.0%0 pts

Race 8

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:4 – Sassy Princess (2-1) ⭐3/3100.0%8 pts
Place:1 – Tennesseehoneybee (8-1)2/366.7%7 pts
Show:5 – Dozen Diamonds (4-1)2/366.7%6 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:8 – Run Camila Run (4-1)1/333.3%2 pts
Alt 2:7 – Creative Quality (5-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 3:6 – Tiffany Twist (4-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 4:2 – Liuzza (15-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 5:3 – Spring Spinning (30-1)0/30.0%0 pts

Race 9

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:3 – Lit Ship (4-1) ⭐2/366.7%7 pts
Place:12 – Fiery Lucy (6-1)2/366.7%7 pts
Show:10 – Princess Attitude (3-1)2/366.7%6 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:7 – Sweet Note (30-1)1/333.3%2 pts
Alt 2:11 – Icona (4-1)1/333.3%1 pts
Alt 3:4 – Next Up (8-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 4:1 – Faye's Gold (12-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 5:9 – Lady Iva (10-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 6:6 – Devassa (15-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 7:2 – J Z's Last Schance (30-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 8:8 – Sanctify (20-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 9:5 – Dream On Stormy (30-1)0/30.0%0 pts

Race 10

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:5 – Sweet Venture (2-1) ⭐2/366.7%8 pts
Place:3 – Fumed (10-1)2/366.7%6 pts
Show:9 – Timbertop (6-1)2/366.7%6 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:10 – Puunene (15-1)2/366.7%3 pts
Alt 2:13 – Benevolencia (20-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 3:14 – J Z's Not Again (12-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 4:7 – Selah Breeze (30-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 5:12 – Bourbon Ice (12-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 6:6 – She's A Beauty (20-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 7:4 – Finally No Drama (4-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 8:1 – Yousuredoshine (12-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 9:2 – Debating (4-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 10:8 – So Jelly (20-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 11:11 – Andy's Call (30-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 12:15 – Wish You Were Here (10-1)0/30.0%0 pts
Alt 13:16 – I Want Her (15-1)0/30.0%0 pts

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