Pick Pony Picks – Consensus Expert Picks for Churchill Downs, September 23, 2026.


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Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony's AI Picks.

How often our pick wins, by its price

AI Ensemble top picks grouped by morning-line odds.

0%13%27%40%54%Odds-on to 5/2: 42.8% from 1,469 racesOdds-on to 5/242.8%5/2 to 5/1: 31.8% from 1,167 races5/2 to 5/131.8%

Short-priced selections are where the model is strongest.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Odds-on to 5/242.8%1,469
5/2 to 5/131.8%1,167

Consensus Expert Picks

Consensus rankings based on 5 experts. Scoring: 1st pick = 4 pts, 2nd = 3 pts, 3rd = 2 pts, 4th = 1 pt. Agreement % = share of experts that included each horse. A gold star (⭐) next to a horse means Pick Pony's AI independently ranks that horse #1 as well — historically the strongest-hitting subset of picks. A recycle mark (↻) means that AI pick is the re-ranked one, after this morning's official scratches and surface changes were applied.

Race 1

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:2 – Problem Solved (2-1) ⭐5/5100.0%18 pts
Place:5 – My King Air (1-1)4/580.0%10 pts
Show:6 – Berniedott (20-1)2/540.0%4 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:7 – Four Dimes (12-1)2/540.0%2 pts
Alt 2:4 – Abundance (8-1)1/520.0%3 pts
Alt 3:1 – Hodl Hard (4-1)1/520.0%3 pts
Alt 4:3 – Federal Agent (20-1)1/520.0%3 pts

Race 2

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:3 – Laughnowcrylater (1-1) ⭐5/5100.0%18 pts
Place:5 – Susan's Boy (6-1)4/580.0%7 pts
Show:1 – Culprit (4-1)2/540.0%7 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:6 – Fletcher Bay (5-1)2/540.0%6 pts
Alt 2:4 – Suited And Booted (4-1)2/540.0%3 pts
Alt 3:2 – Spurgeon (10-1)1/520.0%2 pts

Race 3

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:2 – Social Hour (3-1)4/580.0%16 pts
Place:6 – Lucky Shot (4-1)3/560.0%10 pts
Show:1 – Doctor Jeff (2-1)3/560.0%8 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:5 – Glint (10-1)2/540.0%4 pts
Alt 2:4 – Secured Lender (8-1)2/540.0%2 pts
Alt 3:8 – Banidoso (10-1)1/520.0%2 pts
Alt 4:3 – League Of Legends (15-1)1/520.0%1 pts
Alt 5:9 – Miacomet (6-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 6:7 – Saint In The City (15-1)0/50.0%0 pts

Race 4

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:1 – Proctor Phantom (2-1)5/5100.0%15 pts
Place:2 – Redacted (6-1)4/580.0%15 pts
Show:3 – Halfway Joking (4-1)2/540.0%4 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:7 – Hesper (5-1)2/540.0%4 pts
Alt 2:6 – Tiger's Legacy (4-1)2/540.0%4 pts
Alt 3:8 – Good To Be Prince (10-1)1/520.0%1 pts
Alt 4:5 – Mister Positivity (12-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 5:4 – Dr Fenn (15-1)0/50.0%0 pts

Race 5

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:9 – Soul Of The Night (5-1)3/560.0%9 pts
Place:3 – Hex Appeal (10-1)3/560.0%4 pts
Show:1 – Greatest Blaze (12-1)2/540.0%7 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:12 – Putnam Market (12-1)2/540.0%6 pts
Alt 2:8 – Passage Du Desir (4-1)2/540.0%6 pts
Alt 3:6 – Devious Lady (6-1)2/540.0%5 pts
Alt 4:11 – She's Toasty (6-1)1/520.0%4 pts
Alt 5:7 – Blame To Fame (12-1)1/520.0%2 pts
Alt 6:2 – Twenty Three Gold (12-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 7:4 – Acerbic (20-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 8:5 – Corniche Road (8-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 9:10 – Tumbling (12-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 10:13 – Your Choice (30-1)0/50.0%0 pts

Race 6

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:2 – Special Sauce (4-1)5/5100.0%11 pts
Place:7 – Jr Miss Buttercup (6-1)3/560.0%9 pts
Show:4 – Just Do Believe (4-1)3/560.0%7 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:3 – Tetiaroa (1-1)2/540.0%8 pts
Alt 2:5 – Revel Toast (4-1)2/540.0%6 pts
Alt 3:1 – Tempting Eve (15-1)1/520.0%2 pts
Alt 4:6 – Good Call (30-1)0/50.0%0 pts

Race 7

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:7 – When I Go (2-1) ⭐4/580.0%15 pts
Place:3 – Gut Reaction (2-1)4/580.0%10 pts
Show:5 – My Boy Gary (8-1)3/560.0%7 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:8 – My Birthday Gift (4-1)2/540.0%7 pts
Alt 2:2 – Greatest Nate (20-1)2/540.0%3 pts
Alt 3:1 – Mo Reviews (15-1)1/520.0%1 pts
Alt 4:6 – Asher Dasher (20-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 5:9 – Good Hand (10-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 6:4 – Buffalo Soldier (15-1)0/50.0%0 pts

Race 8

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:9 – Pagode (2-1) ⭐5/5100.0%12 pts
Place:7 – Universe (6-1)4/580.0%12 pts
Show:5 – Penalty Box (4-1)3/560.0%9 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:10 – Stellenbosch (8-1)2/540.0%5 pts
Alt 2:6 – Coalmoon (15-1)1/520.0%3 pts
Alt 3:3 – Memory (8-1)1/520.0%2 pts
Alt 4:4 – Gamblers Tail (12-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 5:2 – Amor Patriae (10-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 6:8 – Zapruder (20-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 7:1 – Fear Of Union (15-1)0/50.0%0 pts

Race 9

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:3 – D Bigalow (8-1) ⭐4/580.0%13 pts
Place:6 – Justone More Thing (5-1)2/540.0%8 pts
Show:4 – Telecaster (10-1)2/540.0%6 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:9 – Rockfest (3-1)2/540.0%6 pts
Alt 2:1 – Anthony The Great (12-1)2/540.0%3 pts
Alt 3:5 – Outofpi (4-1)2/540.0%2 pts
Alt 4:8 – Soho Jimmy (8-1)1/520.0%3 pts
Alt 5:10 – Pelican Hill (20-1)1/520.0%2 pts
Alt 6:2 – Stoic Sage (15-1)0/50.0%0 pts
Alt 7:7 – Tonys Kingdom (6-1)0/50.0%0 pts

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