Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony’s AI Picks.
Race 1 Maiden Claiming 1 1/16 Miles Purse $30,000
Win: Avery County (2) – 71% confidence
Place: Devil’s Den (4) – 29% confidence
Show: Open Flame (5) – 43% confidence
Alternative: Only After Midnite (1) – 29% confidence
Analysts show strong agreement on the top selection, though some concern exists regarding why she is entered for a lower tag despite showing improvement. There is significant disagreement on the minor placings, with several analysts looking for value in horses returning from layoffs.
Race 2 Claiming 6 Furlongs Purse $25,000
Win: Personal Jet (1) – 63% confidence
Place: Time Andbeyond (2) – 50% confidence
Show: Max Dot Socks (6) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Holus Bolus (4) – 25% confidence
The field is dominated by a trio of runners who analysts believe are a cut above the rest. The rail runner is expected to be aggressive early, while the others are likely to pick up the pieces if a speed duel develops. One analyst took a stand against the favorites with a longshot from a different circuit.
Race 3 Maiden Claiming 6 Furlongs Purse $12,500
Win: Grand Oracle (2) – 86% confidence
Place: Amentum (6) – 29% confidence
Show: Field Study (5) – 29% confidence
Alternative: Highway Patrol (4) – 29% confidence
This race features the strongest consensus of the day for the win position. Analysts almost universally agree the favorite is the class of the field, though a few caution that his recent form appears to be trending slightly downward.
Race 4 Claiming 6 Furlongs Purse $20,000
Win: Trouble Ahead (3) – 57% confidence
Place: Sexagenarian (5) – 43% confidence
Show: Fire In My Sul (2) – 29% confidence
Alternative: Forty Love (4) – 29% confidence
Opinion is split between recent maiden winners and horses with more established form at this level. Analysts suggest that trip will be the deciding factor here, as several runners were hampered by traffic in their most recent starts.
Race 5 Claiming 6 Furlongs Purse $12,500
Win: Red Hot Jeanie (6) – 43% confidence
Place: Balladry (4) – 43% confidence
Show: Smart With Heart (3) – 43% confidence
Alternative: Riobella (10) – 43% confidence
This is a wide-open affair with no clear consensus leader. Analysts are finding reasons to support nearly half the field, ranging from class droppers to horses returning from significant layoffs.
Race 6 Claiming 6 Furlongs Purse $25,000
Win: Big Red Machine (7) – 71% confidence
Place: Amazing Amanda (3) – 43% confidence
Show: Look N Mighty Fine (1) – 29% confidence
Alternative: Charla Collection (2) – 29% confidence
The top two selections are coming out of a similar race where they both faced trouble or a fast pace. Most analysts expect a bounce-back performance from the favorite, though one analyst suggests the rail runner could pull off the upset if the top two duel early.
Race 7 Allowance 6 Furlongs Purse $110,000
Win: Vegas Condo (7) – 43% confidence
Place: Beautiful Twice (1) – 43% confidence
Show: Kelly’s Girl (8) – 43% confidence
Alternative: Coaster (6) – 43% confidence
This allowance sprint has generated very little agreement among the analysts. Supporters of the favorites cite local form, while those looking elsewhere are focusing on shippers from Remington or Kentucky who might find the dirt surface more to their liking.
Race 8 Trivista Overnight Stakes 1 1/16 Miles Purse $135,000
Win: Nerazurri (2) – 86% confidence
Place: Seraphia (3) – 29% confidence
Show: Gowells Delight (8) – 29% confidence
Alternative: Decadent (4) – 29% confidence
Analysts view the favorite as nearly unbeatable in this spot after her strong effort against a champion stablemate last time out. The only disagreement comes from a single analyst who believes a shipper could provide an upset at a price.
Race 9 Claiming 6 Furlongs Purse $16,000
Win: Patton’s Tizzy (10) – 57% confidence
Place: String Theory (1) – 43% confidence
Show: You Vee Cee (9) – 43% confidence
Alternative: Landlord (5) – 43% confidence
The finale features a split between the morning line favorites and a veteran runner dropping in class for his second start off a layoff. Analysts are divided on whether the short prices can repeat their recent strong performances.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Analysts suggest focusing wagering capital on races with clear standouts to maximize return on investment. In Race 3 and Race 8, the heavy consensus around Grand Oracle (2) and Nerazurri (2) makes them ideal candidates for use as keys in Exacta and Trifecta wagering. In Race 3, analysts recommend playing Grand Oracle (2) over a rotation of Amentum (6), Highway Patrol (4), and Field Study (5). For Race 8, a similar strategy is advised using Nerazurri (2) on top of Seraphia (3) and Gowells Delight (8).
For the more competitive races like Race 5 and Race 7, analysts recommend a broader approach. A Trifecta box involving Red Hot Jeanie (6), Balladry (4), Smart With Heart (3), and Riobella (10) in the fifth race provides coverage for a race where no clear leader has emerged. In Race 7, analysts see value in playing an Exacta box with Kelly’s Girl (8), Vegas Condo (7), and Beautiful Twice (1), as the pace scenario could favor either a closer or a speed horse depending on track conditions.
Multi-race wagers such as the Late Pick 4 beginning in Race 6 appear lucrative due to the presence of a strong anchor in Race 8. Analysts propose using Big Red Machine (7) and Amazing Amanda (3) in Race 6, spreading in a difficult Race 7, and singling Nerazurri (2) in Race 8 to keep ticket costs manageable while still covering several possible outcomes in the competitive finale.
Value Play Observations
Analysts have identified several horses that may offer better value than their morning line odds suggest. In Race 1, Smooth Marriage (3) is highlighted as a potential overlay at 10-1. While the consensus favors Avery County (2), analysts note that Smooth Marriage (3) showed significant improvement in her only other two-turn effort and could surprise at a big price in her second start off a layoff.
In Race 7, Patty Van Twinkle (3) is listed at 10-1 on the morning line but has received top billing from one analyst who believes her previous New York form will translate well to the Oaklawn dirt. If she remains near double-digit odds, she represents a significant value play compared to the more popular but potentially over-bet Kelly’s Girl (8).
Conversely, analysts suggest being cautious with Avery County (2) in Race 1 and Grand Oracle (2) in Race 3. While both are heavy consensus choices, their low morning line odds may not accurately reflect the risks associated with their recent form patterns. Analysts suggest that if these favorites drop below even money, bettors might find better value by looking at second-tier consensus picks like Calipari’s Girl (7) or Highway Patrol (4).
Overall Wagering Strategy
The racing card at Oaklawn Park today presents a bifurcated landscape for bettors, characterized by a mix of heavy favorites and highly competitive, wide-open contests. The most stable portion of the card resides in the middle and late sequences, specifically in Race 3 and Race 8. Analysts have converged with high confidence on Grand Oracle (2) in the third and Nerazurri (2) in the eighth. These horses command consensus backing due to significant class advantages over their respective rivals. Nerazurri (2), in particular, stands out after a narrow loss to a Grade 1 champion, and her return to overnight stakes company makes her the most reliable anchor for multi-race tickets.
In contrast, bettors must navigate split-opinion races where the analytical tension is high. Race 5 and Race 7 are the primary examples of this volatility. In Race 5, the distribution of picks across four different horses at equal confidence levels suggests a race with high variance. Similarly, Race 7 features an allowance field where analysts are divided between local favorites and Kentucky shippers. The wagering approach in these spots should be inclusive, utilizing boxes or wheels to capture potential upsets, as the consensus indicates no single runner has a tactical or speed-figure edge.
Multi-race sequences like the Early Pick 5 (Races 1-5) and the Late Pick 4 (Races 6-9) offer strong opportunities for strategic construction. The presence of Grand Oracle (2) in Race 3 provides a necessary bridge to get through the early sequence, while the Late Pick 4 can be narrowed significantly by singling Nerazurri (2) in the third leg. This allows for deeper coverage in the ninth race, where Patton’s Tizzy (10) and You Vee Cee (9) present a classic battle between current form and class relief.
Environmental factors should also be monitored closely, specifically the potential for an inside-speed bias. Several analysts noted that the rail was favorable in recent days, which would significantly enhance the prospects of Personal Jet (1) in Race 2 and Amazing Amanda (3) in Race 6. If the track is playing fast and favoring the front, these runners become even more formidable than their consensus numbers suggest.
Key takeaways for today’s card prioritize efficiency in the stake races and aggressive spreading in the low-level claiming ranks. First, bettors should use the heavy consensus favorites in Race 3 and Race 8 as “keys” to reduce ticket costs. Second, the fifth and seventh races are the ideal spots to search for value, as the lack of a dominant analyst choice suggests the public may also be divided. Finally, pay close attention to the performance of Kentucky shippers in the early races; their success or failure will provide a vital clue for the competitive allowance sprint in Race 7.
