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Race 1 Maiden Claiming 1 Mile Dirt Purse: 13,000
Win: Stonecoldhandsome (1) – 60% confidence
Place: Showmance (5) – 40% confidence
Show: Nilambar (6) – 40% confidence
Alternative: My Gemstone (2) – 20% confidence
Race Notes: Most analysts are gravitating toward the favorite, noting its strong recent form at this track. However, the presence of a well-regarded first-time starter and a runner returning from a layoff creates a split in the secondary positions. The wagering implication suggests a strong Win bet on the favorite but caution in exotic structures.
Race 2 Claiming 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt Purse: 15,000
Win: Penny Polka (4) – 50% confidence
Place: Hi Heeled Warrior (3) – 50% confidence
Show: Ghostly Girl (6) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Beyond a Million (7) – 25% confidence
Race Notes: This race presents a wide spread of opinions among analysts, with no single horse commanding a majority for the top spot. The variety of picks suggests a competitive field where several runners have a legitimate chance to win, making this a prime race for “spread” wagering in multi-race sequences.
Race 3 Claiming 6 Furlongs Dirt Purse: 17,000
Win: Vicountess (6) – 75% confidence
Place: Pageant Princess (2) – 25% confidence
Show: G’s Fireball (7) – 25% confidence
Alternative: One Slick Dame (8) – 25% confidence
Race Notes: There is a very high degree of consensus regarding the top choice here. Analysts largely agree that the six-horse is the class of the field. The minor placings are much more debated, suggesting that while the Win position is stable, the trifecta and superfecta could offer value if an underdog sneaks into the frame.
Race 4 Allowance 6 Furlongs Dirt Purse: 35,000
Win: Tempting Lady (2) – 50% confidence
Place: Missy Sixtysix (6) – 50% confidence
Show: Caitlin The Great (7) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Tudox Dahlia (5) – 25% confidence
Race Notes: Analysts are divided between three main contenders, each showing strong recent performance at Penn National. This creates a “three-horse race” dynamic in the eyes of the experts. Bettors might look to box these three in exotics to cover the most likely outcomes.
Race 5 Claiming 6 Furlongs Dirt Purse: 18,000
Win: Brother Rice (4) – 80% confidence
Place: Cold Feet (3) – 40% confidence
Show: Icing (1) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Severn Run (2) – 40% confidence
Race Notes: This race features the strongest consensus on the card, with nearly every analyst backing the four-horse to repeat its previous dominant performance. Because the Win pick is so heavily favored, the value will likely be found in identifying which of the longshots can fill out the bottom of the exacta or trifecta.
Race 6 Claiming 1 Mile 70 Yards Dirt Purse: 20,000
Win: Town’s Warrior (2) – 100% confidence
Place: Balantyne (3) – 40% confidence
Show: Gangly (6) – 40% confidence
Alternative: Wish For Peace (1) – 40% confidence
Race Notes: Analysts are unanimous in their selection for the win, citing a significant class advantage and a winning streak. This is the “anchor” for the day’s multi-race bets. The battle for the remaining spots is wide open, with several analysts looking at consistent local runners to fill the show and alternative slots.
Race 7 Claiming 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt Purse: 16,000
Win: Diamond Essence (4) – 75% confidence
Place: Virologist (1) – 75% confidence
Show: Vivid Artiste (7) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Naughty Destiny (3) – 25% confidence
Race Notes: There is a clear “top two” consensus in this race. Analysts are almost equally split between the one and the four for the top positions, but rarely deviate from these two for the exacta. This suggests a very chalky outcome is expected by the experts.
Race 8 Claiming 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt Purse: 14,000
Win: Ellinger (1) – 75% confidence
Place: Warrior’s Way Out (4) – 50% confidence
Show: Bearing Down (8) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Kerner (2) – 25% confidence
Race Notes: The rail horse holds a strong consensus for the win due to its consistent speed figures and ideal draw. Analysts suggest that if the favorite fails to fire, the outside runners like the four and eight are the most likely to capitalize on a pace meltdown.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1: Analysts suggest an Exacta Box using Stonecoldhandsome (1), Showmance (5), and Nilambar (6). For a higher ceiling, a Trifecta Part-Wheel with Stonecoldhandsome (1) on top of the 5, 6, and 2 is recommended.
Race 2: Given the lack of consensus, analysts recommend a wide Exacta Box covering the 4, 3, 6, and 7. For Pick 3 players, this is a “spread” race where using multiple horses is necessary to survive the sequence.
Race 3: Analysts lean toward a straight Exacta with Vicountess (6) over Pageant Princess (2) and G’s Fireball (7). A Trifecta Key with Vicountess (6) over the rest of the field is a cost-effective way to capitalize on the strong consensus.
Race 4: A boxed Exacta or Trifecta involving Tempting Lady (2), Missy Sixtysix (6), and Caitlin The Great (7) is the preferred play here. Analysts see these three as being a level above the rest of the field.
Race 5: This is a prime spot for a cold Exacta: Brother Rice (4) over Cold Feet (3). Analysts also suggest a Trifecta with the 4 horse keyed in the first and second positions with the 3, 1, and 5 to capture value if the favorite finishes second.
Race 6: With a unanimous win pick, analysts recommend focusing on the Trifecta and Superfecta. Key Town’s Warrior (2) on top of Balantyne (3), Gangly (6), and Wish For Peace (1). This race is the perfect single for any Pick 4 or Pick 5 tickets.
Race 7: Analysts recommend an Exacta Box of Diamond Essence (4) and Virologist (1). For those seeking more value, a Trifecta adding Vivid Artiste (7) in the third spot is a high-probability play according to the consensus data.
Race 8: A straight Exacta with Ellinger (1) over Warrior’s Way Out (4) is the consensus play. Analysts also suggest a late Daily Double or Pick 3 using Ellinger (1) as the primary leg.
Value Play Observations
In Race 5, Brother Rice (4) appears to be an underlaid horse based on analyst consensus, meaning its actual odds may be lower than its perceived winning probability. Conversely, Cold Feet (3) shows signs of being an overlay, as several analysts have it in the top two despite potentially higher morning line odds.
Race 3 shows Vicountess (6) as a massive favorite in the eyes of analysts. If the morning line odds are 2-1 or higher, this represents a significant value opportunity. In Race 2, Penny Polka (4) and Hi Heeled Warrior (3) are currently viewed as the most probable winners in a wide-open field, suggesting that anyone getting odds higher than 4-1 on either horse is finding an overlay.
In the final race, Warrior’s Way Out (4) is identified by one analyst as a top pick while others have it lower, indicating it might be overlooked by the general public, creating a “value” alternative to the heavily favored Ellinger (1).
Overall Wagering Strategy
Strongest Consensus Races: The analyst community shows exceptional confidence in two specific races tonight. Race 6 features Town’s Warrior (2) with a 100% win consensus, making it the definitive standout of the card. Analysts point to its four-race winning streak and superior speed figures as the primary drivers of this unanimous backing. Similarly, Race 5 shows Brother Rice (4) with 80% confidence, following a dominant victory in its previous start. These two races should serve as the foundation for any multi-race wagers, as they represent the most predictable outcomes according to professional analysis.
Split-Opinion Races: Competitive tension is highest in Race 2 and Race 4. In Race 2, opinion is completely fragmented between Penny Polka (4), Hi Heeled Warrior (3), and Ghostly Girl (6). This lack of a clear favorite suggests a pace-dependent outcome where multiple scenarios are equally likely. Race 4 presents a “big three” dynamic between Tempting Lady (2), Missy Sixtysix (6), and Caitlin The Great (7). Wagering in these races requires a more defensive approach, such as boxing the main contenders in exotics or spreading across all three in horizontal sequences to avoid being knocked out by a minor upset.
Multi-Race Sequences: The middle of the card provides a high-probability Pick 3 sequence starting in Race 5. By using Brother Rice (4) as a single in Race 5 and Town’s Warrior (2) as a single in Race 6, bettors can concentrate their capital on the more volatile Race 7, where Diamond Essence (4) and Virologist (1) are the primary targets. This strategy leverages the strong consensus anchors to survive the sequence with minimal investment, allowing for larger “wheels” in the more competitive legs.
Exotic Value Opportunities: Race 1 and Race 8 offer the best structural opportunities for capturing upset upside. In Race 1, the presence of a well-regarded first-timer (Nilambar) alongside established veterans creates analytical variance. Using superfecta wheels with the favorite in the top two spots while rotating several longshots in the bottom two positions can capture high-paying exotics if the favorites don’t finish in exact order. In Race 8, the late-card volatility often leads to pricing inefficiencies; pairing the consensus favorite Ellinger (1) with a mid-priced runner like Warrior’s Way Out (4) could yield a higher-than-expected exacta payout.
Environmental/Track Factors: While weather is consistent at 43 degrees, the dirt surface at Penn National has historically favored inside speed in shorter sprints. This reinforces the consensus backing of rail-drawn horses like Ellinger (1) in Race 8 and Virologist (1) in Race 7. Bettors should monitor early races to see if an outside bias develops, which would significantly upgrade the chances of horses like Beyond a Million (7) in Race 2 or Vivid Artiste (7) in Race 7.
Key Takeaways: Priority should be given to building multi-race tickets around the “unanimous” Town’s Warrior (2) in Race 6. Secondly, bettors should look to exploit the “top-heavy” nature of Race 4 and Race 7 by focusing on small boxes of the two or three most likely winners. Finally, save larger exotic investments for Race 2, where the lack of consensus indicates the highest potential for a lucrative payout.
