Pick Pony Picks – Consensus Expert Picks for Keeneland Race Course, October 4, 2026.


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Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony's AI Picks.

How often our pick wins, by its price

AI Ensemble top picks grouped by morning-line odds.

0%13%27%40%53%Odds-on to 5/2: 42.7% from 1,756 racesOdds-on to 5/242.7%5/2 to 5/1: 30.7% from 1,436 races5/2 to 5/130.7%

Short-priced selections are where the model is strongest.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Odds-on to 5/242.7%1,756
5/2 to 5/130.7%1,436

Consensus Expert Picks

Consensus rankings based on 12 experts. Scoring: 1st pick = 4 pts, 2nd = 3 pts, 3rd = 2 pts, 4th = 1 pt. Agreement % = share of experts that included each horse. A gold star (⭐) next to a horse means Pick Pony's AI independently ranks that horse #1 as well — historically the strongest-hitting subset of picks. A recycle mark (↻) means that AI pick is the re-ranked one, after this morning's official scratches and surface changes were applied.

Race 1

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:7 – Capital Connection (2-1) ⭐10/1283.3%33 pts
Place:2 – Good Mojo (4-1)6/1250.0%20 pts
Show:4 – Captain Mercury (4-1)6/1250.0%16 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:1 – Lil Trick (6-1)4/1233.3%14 pts
Alt 2:6 – Keep On Moving (10-1)3/1225.0%4 pts
Alt 3:8 – Trouble Ahead (20-1)1/128.3%4 pts
Alt 4:3 – Just Asap (6-1)1/128.3%2 pts
Alt 5:5 – Il Cavallino (8-1)1/128.3%1 pts

Race 2

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:8 – Maginnesontap (2-1) ⭐11/1291.7%41 pts
Place:1 – Get Them Roses (2-1)6/1250.0%18 pts
Show:3 – Bedeviled (8-1)5/1241.7%11 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:7 – Money Man (4-1)4/1233.3%12 pts
Alt 2:4 – Private Show (6-1)4/1233.3%10 pts
Alt 3:5 – Meanstepper (15-1)2/1216.7%2 pts
Alt 4:6 – El Ramundo (20-1)0/120.0%0 pts
Alt 5:2 – Maximum Honor (20-1)0/120.0%0 pts

Race 3

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:8 – Terrapin Station (2-1) ⭐6/1250.0%20 pts
Place:4 – Join (6-1)6/1250.0%17 pts
Show:2 – State Conceal (4-1)5/1241.7%12 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:5 – Stone County (8-1)4/1233.3%14 pts
Alt 2:3 – Way Beyond (8-1)4/1233.3%13 pts
Alt 3:6 – City Of Life (12-1)4/1233.3%11 pts
Alt 4:1 – Mom's Spaghetti (5-1)3/1225.0%8 pts
Alt 5:7 – Kokomo Joe (6-1)2/1216.7%4 pts

Race 4

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:7 – Belzoni (4-1) ⭐9/1275.0%28 pts
Place:2 – Just A Holiday (6-1)8/1266.7%26 pts
Show:8 – Biathlon (15-1)5/1241.7%14 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:1 – Grantchester (8-1)4/1233.3%12 pts
Alt 2:4 – Damavand (5-1)3/1225.0%7 pts
Alt 3:6 – Barrel Roll (12-1)2/1216.7%5 pts
Alt 4:11 – Patriots Quest (8-1)1/128.3%4 pts
Alt 5:3 – Hickory (10-1)1/128.3%1 pts
Alt 6:15 – D. C.'s Army (6-1)0/120.0%0 pts
Alt 7:13 – Very Happy (30-1)0/120.0%0 pts
Alt 8:12 – Jokes Reserve (20-1)0/120.0%0 pts
Alt 9:9 – Magical Mikel (6-1)0/120.0%0 pts
Alt 10:5 – Code Of Arms (10-1)0/120.0%0 pts
Alt 11:10 – Stadion (30-1)0/120.0%0 pts
Alt 12:14 – El Gran Ruchacha (30-1)0/120.0%0 pts

Race 5

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:11 – Guy Smiley (4-1) ⭐11/1291.7%37 pts
Place:9 – Ortley Avenue (4-1)6/1250.0%22 pts
Show:3 – Murdock (15-1)3/1225.0%8 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:1 – Golden Ale (8-1)3/1225.0%7 pts
Alt 2:5 – Moon Sniper (6-1)3/1225.0%7 pts
Alt 3:12 – Twilight Delight (10-1)2/1216.7%4 pts
Alt 4:6 – Max Vegas (10-1)2/1216.7%3 pts
Alt 5:4 – Mountain Bear (6-1)1/128.3%4 pts
Alt 6:2 – Zambezi (12-1)1/128.3%4 pts
Alt 7:7 – Kalahari Dreams (12-1)1/128.3%1 pts
Alt 8:13 – Our Starry Night (6-1)0/120.0%0 pts
Alt 9:8 – Storm Cloud Rising (50-1)0/120.0%0 pts
Alt 10:10 – Jet Sweep Joe (20-1)0/120.0%0 pts

Race 6

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:3 – Timing Difference (5-1)8/1266.7%27 pts
Place:4 – High Ceiling (8-1)6/1250.0%19 pts
Show:2 – Billal (2-1)6/1250.0%18 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:6 – Tarantino (4-1)5/1241.7%16 pts
Alt 2:7 – Barksdale (4-1)3/1225.0%7 pts
Alt 3:5 – Flying Liam (6-1)3/1225.0%7 pts
Alt 4:1 – Executive Chef (20-1)1/128.3%2 pts
Alt 5:8 – Tom Cat Tuesday (8-1)1/128.3%1 pts

Race 7

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:5 – Pimlott (4-1) ⭐7/1258.3%26 pts
Place:2 – Bob's Carrot (10-1)7/1258.3%20 pts
Show:7 – Lincoln's Law (5-1)6/1250.0%19 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:9 – Discotheque (10-1)4/1233.3%11 pts
Alt 2:11 – Tre Italiani (6-1)3/1225.0%9 pts
Alt 3:4 – Overtime Rules (8-1)2/1216.7%6 pts
Alt 4:8 – Embry Show (6-1)2/1216.7%3 pts
Alt 5:10 – Speedstorm (20-1)1/128.3%2 pts
Alt 6:3 – Ezum (6-1)1/128.3%1 pts
Alt 7:1 – Amor Patriae (20-1)0/120.0%0 pts
Alt 8:12 – Reclamation (20-1)0/120.0%0 pts
Alt 9:6 – Mount Vernon (15-1)0/120.0%0 pts

Race 8

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:7 – Wood Island (4-1)8/1266.7%27 pts
Place:8 – Ruiva (1-1)8/1266.7%27 pts
Show:2 – Fanshell Beach (4-1)8/1266.7%24 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:1 – Adonius (8-1)5/1241.7%10 pts
Alt 2:6 – Ciarlatano (20-1)2/1216.7%4 pts
Alt 3:5 – Love A Warrior (8-1)1/128.3%2 pts
Alt 4:9 – Bee Crazy (20-1)0/120.0%0 pts
Alt 5:4 – Crack On (12-1)0/120.0%0 pts
Alt 6:3 – Cactus Closer (15-1)0/120.0%0 pts

Race 9

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:4 – Fully Subscribed (1-1) ⭐11/1291.7%43 pts
Place:2 – Counting Stars (2-1)10/1283.3%30 pts
Show:3 – Immersive (4-1)7/1258.3%15 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:1 – Regaled (8-1)3/1225.0%5 pts
Alt 2:5 – Snowyte (15-1)1/128.3%1 pts

Race 10

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Win:8 – Hemingway (2-1) ⭐7/1163.6%23 pts
Place:3 – Bold Leadership (4-1)7/1163.6%19 pts
Show:6 – Popcorn (6-1)4/1136.4%10 pts

Alternatives

PickHorseExpertsAgreementScore
Alt 1:11 – Mid American (10-1)3/1127.3%12 pts
Alt 2:2 – Agate (4-1)3/1127.3%9 pts
Alt 3:10 – Let Em Know (20-1)3/1127.3%7 pts
Alt 4:5 – Real Goodbar (10-1)2/1118.2%6 pts
Alt 5:9 – Blaring Ambition (15-1)1/119.1%3 pts
Alt 6:4 – Heracles (15-1)1/119.1%1 pts
Alt 7:1 – Trim Castle (30-1)0/110.0%0 pts
Alt 8:7 – Mad Mo (20-1)0/110.0%0 pts

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