Posted inAnalysis Picks

Pick Pony Picks – Consensus Expert Picks for Laurel Park, March 13, 2026.

No CommentsPosted inAnalysis, Picks


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony's AI Picks.

Race 1 – Maiden Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, purse listed locally

Win: Stylish Gem (6) – 80% confidence
Place: Turkish Breeze (1) – 70% confidence
Show: Eastcoastgirlsrhip (5) – 55% confidence
Alternative: Naomi An Ruth (4) – 35% confidence

Race notes: Analysts broadly converge on Stylish Gem (6) as the most reliable speed and class combination, with Turkish Breeze (1) seen as the main danger if she moves forward second out. Eastcoastgirlsrhip (5) is consistently used underneath as a minor-award type, while Naomi An Ruth (4) gains some traction as a possible pace-factor upgrade off her last. Other runners include: Rosie's Fortune (2), Modernis Silver (3).

Race 2 – Claiming, 1 mile, Dirt, purse listed locally

Win: No Mo Muffins (1) – 60% confidence
Place: Yes Picnic (4) – 45% confidence
Show: Honor Our Country (5) – 45% confidence
Alternative: Diamond N Dress (3) – 25% confidence

Race notes: Opinion centers on No Mo Muffins (1) as the most likely winner off recency and barn strength, but several analysts flag potential distance limitations which temper confidence. Yes Picnic (4) and Honor Our Country (5) split support for in-the-money spots, hinting at a competitive tri behind the favorite, while Diamond N Dress (3) is viewed as a trip-upgrade candidate who could outrun her price. Other runners include: Back Wall Bandit (2), Only Maria (6).

Race 3 – Maiden Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, purse listed locally

Win: Chilly Girl (5) – 55% confidence
Place: Lovely Lookin Lili (3) – 45% confidence
Show: Pneumo Warrior (4) – 45% confidence
Alternative: Cross Of Valor (1) – 40% confidence

Race notes: Analysts are split between upside and known-quantity types, with Chilly Girl (5) narrowly preferred on class and projected trip. Lovely Lookin Lili (3) shows up repeatedly as a progressive type and is a common price horse in the exacta and trifecta discussions, while Pneumo Warrior (4) and Cross Of Valor (1) are respected on established figures but viewed as slightly more exposed. Other runners include: Peace Before Chaos (2), Old Fashion Candy (6).

Race 4 – Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, purse listed locally

Win: Blo By'em (5) – 50% confidence
Place: D Hopper (1) – 55% confidence
Show: Ellinger (6) – 45% confidence
Alternative: Who Says So (4) – 35% confidence

Race notes: The field is seen as tightly matched, but Blo By'em (5) draws the most top-pick mentions on form and subtle ground-loss upgrades. D Hopper (1) is recognized as a pace presence who fits well at this level, and Ellinger (6) is widely used in show or underneath roles despite some inconsistency. Who Says So (4) is treated as a rebound candidate who offers some tactical flexibility. Other runners include: A. L.'s Boy (2), Right Of Rush (3).

Race 5 – Maiden Claiming, 1 mile, Dirt, purse listed locally

Win: Bigshot Ness (6) – 70% confidence
Place: Master Schemer (1) – 60% confidence
Show: Call Me Victorious (3) – 50% confidence
Alternative: River City Runner (4) – 30% confidence

Race notes: Bigshot Ness (6) is a clear consensus choice, with analysts repeatedly framing the race around whether he simply steps forward and proves best. Master Schemer (1) is a frequent second-choice on reliability, while Call Me Victorious (3) carries “value” buzz given the perceived route-upside and improving figure profile. River City Runner (4) draws scattered support as a stretch-out type for deeper exotics. Other runners include: Its All Gravy (2), Modranach (5), Paid Vacation (7).

Race 6 – Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, purse listed locally

Win: Kerness K (5) – 80% confidence
Place: Magic Spin (2) – 55% confidence
Show: More Vino (1) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Quincannon (10) – 30% confidence

Race notes: Kerness K (5) is one of the strongest favorites on the card in analyst opinion, consistently pegged as controlling speed or first run in a race lacking other committed pace. Magic Spin (2) and More Vino (1) are logical second-tier types, widely used in exactas and multi-race backups, while Quincannon (10) profiles as a late-running alternative who benefits if the pace heats up. Other runners include: Uniwinner (3), Find Faith (4), Catahoula Moon (6), Prom Knight (7), Keeping It Country (8), Mister Agent (9).

Race 7 – Allowance, 6 furlongs, Dirt, purse listed locally

Win: Guaponess (3) – 55% confidence
Place: Wickeddivine (5) – 50% confidence
Show: Paco The Taco Man (1) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Change My World (4) – 30% confidence

Race notes: Analysts gravitate to Guaponess (3) as the most likely winner given current form and the turn-back in distance, but Wickeddivine (5) and Paco The Taco Man (1) both have strong followings, creating a genuinely competitive top tier. Change My World (4) gains attention as a tactical runner who could trip-out behind the primary speeds. Other runners include: Enzo (2).

Race 8 – Maiden Claiming, 6 furlongs, Dirt, purse listed locally

Win: Q Got Hops (6) – 70% confidence
Place: Stay Fearless (3) – 55% confidence
Show: Rio Del Valle (1) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Poor Peanut (5) – 35% confidence

Race notes: Q Got Hops (6) stands out on paper and is heavily favored by analysts, especially in terms of experience and figures versus mostly untested rivals. Stay Fearless (3) is respected as a well-meant firster, while Rio Del Valle (1) is often placed in exactas as a logical second- or third-choice, and Poor Peanut (5) appears repeatedly as a live debutant for exotic use. Other runners include: Tug (2), Babble (4).

Recommended Exotic Plays by Race

Race 1 – analysts generally key Stylish Gem (6) on top in exactas and trifectas, using Turkish Breeze (1) and Eastcoastgirlsrhip (5) underneath while sprinkling Naomi An Ruth (4) in third and fourth slots. A common structure is an exacta 6 over 1,5 and a trifecta 6 over 1,5,4 over 1,5,4 to leverage the strong top pick while containing cost. Some analysts would also reverse for protection with a small 1 over 6,5 exacta in case Turkish Breeze (1) takes a bigger step forward.

Race 2 – suggested exotic constructions often box the three main contenders No Mo Muffins (1), Yes Picnic (4) and Honor Our Country (5) in exactas, with Diamond N Dress (3) as the key price horse to spice up trifectas. A practical approach is an exacta box 1,4,5 and a trifecta 1,4,5 with 1,4,5 with 3,1,4,5, which reflects the tight cluster of projected finishers while still giving upside if Diamond N Dress (3) grabs a piece.

Race 3 – with multiple analysts highlighting Chilly Girl (5), Lovely Lookin Lili (3), Pneumo Warrior (4) and Cross Of Valor (1), many exotic tickets will revolve around this quartet. Analysts would likely recommend a 4-horse trifecta box 1,3,4,5, and for more aggressive players a superfecta that keys Chilly Girl (5) and Lovely Lookin Lili (3) on top while spreading 1,4,5,6 underneath to include Old Fashion Candy (6) as a longshot.

Race 4 – because opinion is relatively divided, analysts are inclined to lean on vertical spreads rather than narrow keys, often centering Blo By'em (5) and D Hopper (1). A popular template is an exacta box 1,5,6 and a trifecta 1,5 over 1,5,4,6 over 1,5,4,6, capturing the primary quartet while still acknowledging Ellinger (6) and Who Says So (4) as viable. Price-conscious bettors might also play a saver superfecta 5 over 1,4,6 over 1,4,6 over all, emphasizing Blo By'em (5) as the main win anchor.

Race 5 – with Bigshot Ness (6) a strong top choice but Call Me Victorious (3) a popular “value” type, analysts are inclined to box those two with Master Schemer (1) in exactas and trifectas. A common play would be an exacta box 1,3,6 and a trifecta 6 over 1,3,4 over 1,3,4,6, allowing River City Runner (4) to add price while still leaning on the consensus top pick. More aggressive players could single Bigshot Ness (6) in early or middle legs of multi-race bets such as daily doubles and pick 3s.

Race 6 – Kerness K (5) is widely viewed as a potential single in horizontal wagers, with many analysts recommending singling him in the late pick 3, pick 4, or pick 5 to gain leverage. Vertically, exactas such as 5 over 1,2,10 and a backup 1,2 over 5,10 give coverage around the main scenario in which he controls the race. Trifectas like 5 over 1,2,10 over 1,2,3,10, including Uniwinner (3), can offer reasonable upside without excessive outlay.

Race 7 – given the three-headed core of Guaponess (3), Wickeddivine (5), and Paco The Taco Man (1), analysts favor 3-horse exacta and trifecta boxes. A straightforward approach is an exacta box 1,3,5 and a trifecta 1,3,5 with 1,3,4,5 with 1,3,4,5, which also ushers Change My World (4) into the frame as a price-enhancing fourth horse. Where bankroll permits, multi-race tickets may use Guaponess (3) and Wickeddivine (5) as A-level inclusions and Paco The Taco Man (1) as B-level coverage.

Race 8 – Q Got Hops (6) is the most common key in late exotics, often singled or at least heavily weighted in the anchor leg of pick 3s and pick 4s. Analysts would construct trifectas such as 6 over 1,3,5 over 1,2,3,4,5, and possibly a saver ticket 3 over 1,6 over 1,2,5,6 to respect Stay Fearless (3) as a live debutant. Exactas 6 over 1,3,5 paired with a small reverse 3 over 1,6 also align with the consensus that Q Got Hops (6) and Stay Fearless (3) are likeliest to decide the race.

Value Play Observations

Across the card, several horses appear overlaid relative to analyst consensus. In Race 3, Lovely Lookin Lili (3) is repeatedly mentioned as a progressive type and “horse to follow” yet remains second string behind Chilly Girl (5) in many public rankings; if her price drifts upward, her consensus presence suggests her true win probability may exceed the market. Similarly, Cross Of Valor (1) is often relegated to show or alternative status but is never dismissed, implying potential value in underneath slots if the public over-focuses on the more obvious pair.

In Race 5, Call Me Victorious (3) is singled out by multiple analysts as a strong stretch-out candidate with improving figures, yet the morning line and many casual projections likely keep attention on Bigshot Ness (6) and Master Schemer (1). That dynamic creates a classic overlay situation in which Call Me Victorious (3) may offer superior risk–reward in win and key roles in exactas, particularly if he stays near or above his listed price. River City Runner (4) also shapes as a modest overlay for deeper exotic use, as his potential improvement at a route is acknowledged but not heavily weighted in top slots.

Race 6 showcases Kerness K (5) as a probable underlay; he dominates consensus and is likely to be hammered at the windows, meaning his final odds may fall below his already-short morning line. While his win probability is high, the expected price often does not fairly compensate for trip or pace risk, so better value may lie in structuring exotics that pivot around him but seek boxes or spreads underneath with Magic Spin (2), More Vino (1), and Quincannon (10). In contrast, a horse like Quincannon (10) may be overlooked on the tote but carries a meaningful share of “alternative” and underneath mentions and thus may be a good value in tris and supers.

In the closing race, Q Got Hops (6) again looks like an underlay candidate given the near-universal support, but Stay Fearless (3), Rio Del Valle (1), and Poor Peanut (5) all project as possible overlays depending on how the betting public treats inexperienced versus proven types. If debut runners Stay Fearless (3) and Poor Peanut (5) float up above their lines while still featuring heavily in analyst trifecta constructions, they become attractive win and vertical-exotic stabs. Rio Del Valle (1) might also offer value in exacta and trifecta second or third positions if Q Got Hops (6) takes almost all the win money.

Overall Wagering Strategy

Strongest consensus races on this card are clearly Race 1, Race 6, and Race 8, where Stylish Gem (6), Kerness K (5), and Q Got Hops (6) respectively command strong analyst backing and limited credible opposition. In these events, the tactical choice is whether to embrace these runners as “free squares” in multi-race tickets or to fade them in search of outsized payoffs; given the magnitude of agreement, the more disciplined approach is to lean on them heavily in horizontal wagers and instead search for value in secondary slots and spread races. These are the types of races in which vertical plays can be narrowed, focusing on logical second and third choices rather than chasing extreme longshots.

By contrast, Race 3, Race 4, and Race 7 exhibit more divided opinion with competing win candidates in the 40–50% confidence range. In Race 3, the analyst community is split chiefly between Chilly Girl (5) and Lovely Lookin Lili (3), with Pneumo Warrior (4) and Cross Of Valor (1) not far behind, while in Race 4 and Race 7, the win picture is similarly muddled across four main runners in each field. In these split-opinion races, attempting to single a horse simply for ticket economy is risky; more robust strategies involve spreading across the main contenders on horizontal tickets while leaning on structural efficiencies like “A/B” grading, where the most trusted pair get heavier weighting but alternative outcomes remain covered.

From a multi-race perspective, the middle of the card offers a natural backbone for pick 3 and pick 4 construction. Sequences that string together Race 5 through Race 8 can be anchored by Bigshot Ness (6) in Race 5, Kerness K (5) in Race 6, and Q Got Hops (6) in Race 8, leaving Race 7 as the primary spread leg where Guaponess (3), Wickeddivine (5), and Paco The Taco Man (1) carry the bulk of the tickets. Early doubles from Race 1 to Race 2 can similarly key Stylish Gem (6) into a modest spread among No Mo Muffins (1), Yes Picnic (4), and Honor Our Country (5) in the second, allowing bettors to press their opinions where consensus is highest. This approach harnesses the card's natural structure by using the strongest favorites to compress risk in some legs and using the more open races to chase separation.

In terms of exotic value, maidens and conditioned claimers on the day offer the best chance for pricing inefficiencies. Races 3 and 5, in particular, feature a mix of lightly raced and somewhat exposed types, creating conditions in which analyst variance is high and the public may misprice upside in horses like Lovely Lookin Lili (3) and Call Me Victorious (3). Superfecta and trifecta structures that revolve around several logical win candidates but stretch four- and five-deep underneath can exploit these situations at modest cost. For example, wheel formats that key a favored runner in one or two top slots, then spread with three or four horses underneath, allow bettors to profit when a correctly identified but underbet horse clunks up for third or fourth.

Environmental and track factors, including projected cool temperatures and the typical Laurel main-track profile at this time of year, should nudge bettors to favor tactical speed and inside-mid posts unless the live board or early races suggest a clear bias. Pace scenarios are especially important in a card like this, where several strong favorites project to be either loose on the lead or well-positioned just off it, as with Kerness K (5) and Stylish Gem (6). If an emerging bias is detected—for example, an outside rally path proving dominant—adjustments should be made quickly to fade lone-speed profiles and upgrade stalking closers even when they are not consensus choices.

The key takeaways for bettors are, first, to embrace the strongest consensus standouts in multi-race bets but look for value and alternative constructions underneath in vertical plays; second, to target split-opinion races like Race 3, Race 4, and Race 7 as the primary opportunities to gain leverage via spreads and structured exotic tickets; and third, to remain attentive to live track conditions and pace patterns, as these real-time factors can either reinforce the analyst consensus or offer contrarian opportunities when the on-track reality diverges from pre-race expectations.

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback