Pick Pony Picks – Consensus Expert Picks for Penn National, March 27, 2026.


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Race 1 – Claiming – 1m Dirt – Purse $35,000

Win: Excellorator (3) – 75% confidence

Place: Kissthemoon (2) – 70% confidence

Show: Kaladin (5) – 40% confidence

Alternative: Easter Bet (1) – 35% confidence

Race notes: Analysts are heavily aligned on Excellorator (3) as the most likely winner, with Kissthemoon (2) the clear underneath key and Kaladin (5) the preferred third slot option. The pattern suggests relatively low chaos, and many analysts treat Easter Bet (1) as a fringe exotic filler rather than a central win contender.

Other runners include: Hey Porter (4)

Race 2 – Starter Optional Claiming – 1m 110y Dirt – Purse $35,000

Win: Bet N Win (3) – 70% confidence

Place: Malibu Warrior (1) – 55% confidence

Show: Bay Street Money (6) – 40% confidence

Alternative: Curlington (5) – 35% confidence

Race notes: Bet N Win (3) is the most consistently preferred top choice, but several analysts upgrade Malibu Warrior (1) and Bay Street Money (6), which tilts this race toward modest volatility. Curlington (5) appears in more supporting roles, implying stronger appeal as a late exotic component than as a primary win key.

Other runners include: White Series (2)

Race 3 – Maiden Special Weight – ~6f Dirt – Purse $22,000

Win: Tiz Ziffy (1) – 60% confidence

Place: Remembrall (7) – 55% confidence

Show: Itty Biddy City (3) – 45% confidence

Alternative: Blast Of Mischief (2) – 40% confidence

Race notes: Opinion splits mildly between Tiz Ziffy (1) and Remembrall (7) for the top, with a narrow edge to Tiz Ziffy (1) as the preferred win play across sources. Itty Biddy City (3) and Blast Of Mischief (2) show up frequently underneath, signaling a fairly defined top four but with some room for minor shuffling.

Other runners include: Volatile Sister (4), Kylie's Kiss (5), Tinker Bull (6), Dont Even Think (8)

Race 4 – Allowance – 1m 70y Dirt – Purse $34,000

Win: Disco Rules (2) – 55% confidence

Place: Mary's Reward (1) – 50% confidence

Show: Eye Candy Warrior (3) – 45% confidence

Alternative: Irish Coco (5) – 35% confidence

Race notes: Analysts are almost evenly divided between Disco Rules (2) and Mary's Reward (1), with a slight consensus lean to Disco Rules (2) as the top selection. Eye Candy Warrior (3) and Irish Coco (5) are widely respected as exotics staples, pointing to a race where class and current form are highly valued.

Other runners include: Combat Hoofs (4)

Race 5 – Allowance – ~6½f Dirt – Purse $34,000

Win: Racetrack Romance (3) – 65% confidence

Place: Letter To You (5) – 60% confidence

Show: Keystone State (1) – 50% confidence

Alternative: Rudiobus (4) – 35% confidence

Race notes: Racetrack Romance (3) attracts strong backing as the most likely winner, with Letter To You (5) very popular as the main threat and common exacta partner. Keystone State (1) and Rudiobus (4) are viewed more as depth pieces in trifectas and superfectas than as likely upset winners.

Other runners include: Wave Rider (2), Borz (6), Paterno (7)

Race 6 – Claiming – ~6½f Dirt – Purse $18,000

Win: Showtime Matinee (4) – 60% confidence

Place: Souper Vinnie (1) – 55% confidence

Show: Jace Is No Joke (5) – 45% confidence

Alternative: Torotoro (2) – 30% confidence

Race notes: Many analysts frame this as a two-horse race between Showtime Matinee (4) and Souper Vinnie (1), with Showtime Matinee (4) narrowly preferred for the win slot. Jace Is No Joke (5) and Torotoro (2) appear frequently in supporting roles, indicating a likely compact outcome among the top four.

Other runners include: Swift Attraction (3)

Race 7 – Maiden Claiming – 6f Dirt – Purse $18,000

Win: Craving Carbs (3) – 65% confidence

Place: Ambessa (4) – 55% confidence

Show: Bramwell (5) – 50% confidence

Alternative: Wood Lily (1) – 40% confidence

Race notes: Craving Carbs (3) is the most widely endorsed winner, with Ambessa (4) and Bramwell (5) tightly grouped as primary underneath pieces. Wood Lily (1) is a live alternative with enough support to be treated as a defensive top-four inclusion rather than a toss.

Other runners include: Alice Fantastic (2), Belliqueux (6), Deposit Slip (7), Sexy Red Dress (8)

Recommended Exotic Plays by Race

Race 1 – Claiming – 1m Dirt

Analysts' structure suggests building exactas and trifectas around Excellorator (3) on top, pressing combinations like Excellorator (3) over Kissthemoon (2), Kaladin (5), and Easter Bet (1) in the second and third slots. A common approach would be a cold exacta Excellorator (3) over Kissthemoon (2), backed up by a saver exacta Excellorator (3) over Kaladin (5) and a trifecta key of Excellorator (3) over Kissthemoon (2), Kaladin (5), and Easter Bet (1). For players seeking a modest upset angle, some analysts would include Hey Porter (4) in superfecta fourth-place wheels under the main trio.

Race 2 – Starter Optional Claiming – 1m 110y Dirt

With Bet N Win (3) the consensus top and Malibu Warrior (1) and Bay Street Money (6) the most common alternatives, exacta players could emphasize Bet N Win (3) over Malibu Warrior (1) and Bay Street Money (6). Trifecta constructions such as Bet N Win (3) over Malibu Warrior (1), Bay Street Money (6), and Curlington (5), with those same three reversing underneath, mirror the analyst view of a four-horse core. More aggressive bettors might box Bet N Win (3), Malibu Warrior (1), Bay Street Money (6), and Curlington (5) in a superfecta to capture any late shuffling among the logical contenders.

Race 3 – Maiden Special Weight – ~6f Dirt

Analysts generally advise a four-horse focus, making a trifecta box of Tiz Ziffy (1), Remembrall (7), Itty Biddy City (3), and Blast Of Mischief (2) a logical baseline play. For tighter tickets, one common strategy is to key Tiz Ziffy (1) and Remembrall (7) in the win slot while spreading with Itty Biddy City (3) and Blast Of Mischief (2) in the minor placings. Superfecta players can place the same quartet on top and then include Volatile Sister (4) and Dont Even Think (8) in the fourth slot only to guard against a minor shock at a bigger price.

Race 4 – Allowance – 1m 70y Dirt

Because the consensus is split between Disco Rules (2) and Mary's Reward (1), many analysts would recommend an exacta box of Disco Rules (2) and Mary's Reward (1) rather than committing to a single key. Trifectas can lean on Disco Rules (2) and Mary's Reward (1) in the top two positions with Eye Candy Warrior (3) and Irish Coco (5) filling the third slot. To capitalize on the perceived class of the top pair, some strategies use a superfecta structure 1–2–3–5 in various combinations, keeping Combat Hoofs (4) as a fourth-slot inclusion only in wide tickets.

Race 5 – Allowance – ~6½f Dirt

Racetrack Romance (3) and Letter To You (5) form the backbone of most exotic tickets, with Keystone State (1) and Rudiobus (4) used heavily underneath. Analysts often suggest an exacta key of Racetrack Romance (3) over Letter To You (5) and Keystone State (1), with a saver exacta using Letter To You (5) on top. Trifecta players can key Racetrack Romance (3) in first, Letter To You (5) in second, and then spread with Keystone State (1), Rudiobus (4), and Borz (6) in third, while superfecta approaches rotate Keystone State (1), Rudiobus (4), Borz (6), and Paterno (7) for the lower rungs.

Race 6 – Claiming – ~6½f Dirt

Given the strong two-horse focus, exactas centered on Showtime Matinee (4) and Souper Vinnie (1) are the most natural structures, particularly boxes and presses of Showtime Matinee (4) over Souper Vinnie (1). Trifectas can key Showtime Matinee (4) and Souper Vinnie (1) in the top two while using Jace Is No Joke (5) and Torotoro (2) in third, with Swift Attraction (3) reserved for deeper coverage. Some analysts would also build superfecta tickets that anchor Showtime Matinee (4) and Souper Vinnie (1) in first and second while rotating Torotoro (2), Jace Is No Joke (5), and Swift Attraction (3) underneath.

Race 7 – Maiden Claiming – 6f Dirt

The consensus cluster around Craving Carbs (3), Ambessa (4), Bramwell (5), and Wood Lily (1) invites trifecta and superfecta boxes using that core. More focused strategies key Craving Carbs (3) in first and Ambessa (4) or Bramwell (5) in second, then spread with Wood Lily (1) and the remaining two among third and fourth. To capture the potential for a price to sneak into the frame, some analysts would widen the fourth slot of superfectas to include Alice Fantastic (2), Belliqueux (6), Deposit Slip (7), and Sexy Red Dress (8).

Value Play Observations

Analysts generally view Excellorator (3) in Race 1 as a likely winner but potentially overlaid in intra-race exotics if public bettors gravitate overwhelmingly to that short price and underuse Kissthemoon (2) or Kaladin (5) on top in small hedge tickets. In that same race, Easter Bet (1) appears as a lightly used but not hopeless runner who could be overlaid underneath if the board lets the price drift beyond the mid double-digits.

In Race 2, Bet N Win (3) is a strong favorite on paper but may approach underlay territory if the win pool compresses below typical short odds, while Malibu Warrior (1) and Bay Street Money (6) look like more fairly priced alternatives given their consensus support. Curlington (5) appears in more supporting roles, which could generate overlay potential in trifectas and superfectas if the horse holds a mid-range price but continues to be systematically placed by analysts.

Race 3's split between Tiz Ziffy (1) and Remembrall (7) implies that either could become a value proposition if one draws disproportionately heavy public money compared to the other. Itty Biddy City (3) and Blast Of Mischief (2) may deliver the best risk-reward mix in the vertical pools, as they are consistently mentioned but still project to offer better prices than the top two.

In Race 4, the near-even split between Disco Rules (2) and Mary's Reward (1) suggests that whichever runner ends up second choice in the betting is more likely to be the overlay. Eye Candy Warrior (3) has enough analyst backing to be a live exotic booster if the public overemphasizes the top pair and ignores recent improvement.

Race 5 shows a strong tilt toward Racetrack Romance (3) and Letter To You (5), which raises the risk that Racetrack Romance (3) becomes a classic favorite underlay if the price gets crushed. Keystone State (1), Rudiobus (4), and Borz (6) are logical candidates to out-run their odds in the minor placings, especially if bettors focus too narrowly on the two headliners.

In Race 6, Showtime Matinee (4) and Souper Vinnie (1) dominate analyst attention, so Torotoro (2) and Jace Is No Joke (5) are the most likely sources of exotic value if they hold fair prices in the mid-range. Swift Attraction (3) appears sparingly but with enough respect to be a potential overlay in the fourth slot of superfectas.

Race 7's market may concentrate on Craving Carbs (3), but the analyst pattern indicates that Ambessa (4), Bramwell (5), and Wood Lily (1) are all capable alternatives that could be priced more generously. Horses such as Belliqueux (6), Deposit Slip (7), and Sexy Red Dress (8) are rarely on top but could become sneaky value if the pace collapses or a bias favors their running styles.

Overall Wagering Strategy

Across the card, the strongest consensus races appear to be Race 1, Race 5, Race 6, and Race 7, where a single runner holds at least roughly two-thirds of the inferred confidence for the win slot. In Race 1, Excellorator (3) commands clear analyst support and profiles as a reliable single in multi-race wagers, particularly when paired with strategic coverage underneath to guard against a minor upset. Race 5 similarly revolves around Racetrack Romance (3) and, to a slightly lesser extent, Letter To You (5), forming a powerful axis for horizontal and vertical constructions. Race 6's axis of Showtime Matinee (4) and Souper Vinnie (1) yields a stable foundation, while Race 7 exhibits a strong lean to Craving Carbs (3) with a tightly grouped supporting cast that can be used for depth rather than as primary alternatives.

Split-opinion races are most evident in Race 3 and Race 4, where multiple runners are credible winners and analyst confidence is clustered in the 40 to 60 percent range instead of heavily skewed toward a single horse. In Race 3, the tension between Tiz Ziffy (1) and Remembrall (7) suggests that horizontals should treat the race more defensively, either by including both or by singling one while accepting increased variance. Race 4 features a classic two-way split between Disco Rules (2) and Mary's Reward (1), with Eye Candy Warrior (3) and Irish Coco (5) as viable spoilers, which naturally pushes bettors to widen coverage rather than lean heavily on one outcome.

From a multi-race sequence perspective, the card offers a coherent structure for economical Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets centered on the races with the tightest consensus. One logical approach is to anchor sequences on Excellorator (3) in Race 1, build more coverage in Race 2 and Race 3 where opinion is more fragmented, then tighten again in Race 5, Race 6, and Race 7 using Racetrack Romance (3), Showtime Matinee (4), Souper Vinnie (1), and Craving Carbs (3) as primary levers. Such constructions reduce field volatility by exploiting the most trusted opinions while allocating bankroll more liberally where the analytical landscape is less settled.

Exotic value opportunities arise mainly in the allowance and maiden events where pace and development can create non-linear outcomes. In Race 3 and Race 4, players may benefit from superfecta and wide trifecta structures that respect the analyst-backed core while deliberately reaching for one or two price horses in the lower rungs. The recommended structures include wheels such as “two or three logicals on top, four or five runners underneath,” or four-horse boxes that revolve around the principal contenders but allow an outsider to sneak into second or third. This approach seeks to exploit analytical variance and potential pricing inefficiencies without requiring large capital outlays.

Environmental and track factors, as reflected by the projected 48-degree temperatures and dirt surface, point toward a relatively fair track without extreme weather-driven biases, though real-time observation of earlier races is still important for detecting any emerging preference for speed or closers. Pace scenarios, particularly in the claiming and allowance races, will play a key role in determining whether front-end types like Excellorator (3) and Racetrack Romance (3) can translate analyst confidence into wire-to-wire performances or whether patient, stalking runners will have better-than-expected chances to upset. Bettors should pay attention to whether early races favor inside-versus-outside posts and adjust their exposure in later heats accordingly.

The key takeaways for experienced bettors are to leverage the strongest consensus horses as structural singles or strong “A” choices in multi-race wagers, to expand coverage and accept volatility in the split-opinion races where analyst confidence is inherently lower, and to use vertical exotics strategically to capture value on well-regarded but not heavily hyped supporting runners. Maintaining discipline in race selection, avoiding over-betting clear underlays, and adjusting to any emergent track bias over the course of the evening should collectively improve expected value across the Penn National card.

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