Pick Pony Picks – Consensus Expert Picks for Turf Paradise, March 24, 2026.


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Race 1 – Optional Claiming – 300Y Dirt – Purse not listed

Win: Tell America (6) – 60% confidence
Place: Higher Heat (3) – 55% confidence
Show: Cha Chings Chick (1) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Rr Favorite Power (4) – 35% confidence

Race notes: Analysts consistently gravitate to Tell America (6) as the key speed with Higher Heat (3) the main threat and Cha Chings Chick (1) a trip-dependent underneath player. Other runners include: Msblue (2), Magic King Corona (5).

Race 2 – Optional Claiming – 330Y Dirt – Purse not listed

Win: Four Sweet Kid (6) – 70% confidence
Place: Triple D Governor (3) – 45% confidence
Show: Letsjustsay (1) – 45% confidence
Alternative: Heartache Tonite (2) – 35% confidence

Race notes: Four Sweet Kid (6) is a strong consensus win choice while Triple D Governor (3) and Letsjustsay (1) trade support for minor awards and Heartache Tonite (2) attracts deeper-ticket respect. Other runners include: Jess Mr Mayito (4), Sweet Fire Wes (5).

Race 3 – Allowance – 8F Turf – Purse not listed

Win: Seas Of Normandy (3) – 55% confidence
Place: Vekoma Kid (6) – 50% confidence
Show: Fireman Dan (2) – 45% confidence
Alternative: Evanderkeen (4) – 40% confidence

Race notes: Opinion splits slightly between the proven local Seas Of Normandy (3) and the layoff horse Vekoma Kid (6), with Fireman Dan (2) and Evanderkeen (4) repeatedly plugged as logical exotics pieces. Other runners include: Chief Wild Eagle (1), Athens Moon (5).

Race 4 – Claiming – 1320Y Dirt – Purse not listed

Win: Velocious (2) – 65% confidence
Place: Sharp Attitude (3) – 50% confidence
Show: Machina (4) – 45% confidence
Alternative: Miracle Ball (5) – 40% confidence

Race notes: Velocious (2) owns the clearest edge on paper, while Sharp Attitude (3), Machina (4), and Miracle Ball (5) rotate through the underneath slots suggesting vertical bets may spread behind a single on top. Other runners include: A Real Jewel (1), Hot Rod Mama (6).

Race 5 – Claiming – 1430Y Dirt – Purse not listed

Win: John Dunbar (4) – 70% confidence
Place: Drinking Again (5) – 60% confidence
Show: Standard Of Proof (2) – 45% confidence
Alternative: Cousin Richie (7) – 40% confidence

Race notes: John Dunbar (4) is treated as a likely repeat winner with strong support, while Drinking Again (5) is a near-universal inclusion in exactas and trifectas and Standard Of Proof (2) and Cousin Richie (7) round out a fairly tight top tier. Other runners include: Staysober (1), Freeze 'em (3), Peso (6).

Race 6 – Claiming – 8F Dirt – Purse not listed

Win: Riding By (8) – 70% confidence
Place: The Man The Myth (6) – 45% confidence
Show: Hacksaw Mountain (5) – 45% confidence
Alternative: Supersonic Me (7) – 35% confidence

Race notes: Riding By (8) emerges as a pronounced favorite in analyst projections, with The Man The Myth (6), Hacksaw Mountain (5), and Supersonic Me (7) forming an interchangeable second tier around pace and trip dynamics. Other runners include: Regarding Harry (1), Dinero De La Casa (2), Run Baba Run (3), Red Memorys (4).

Race 7 – Claiming – 8F Turf – Purse not listed

Win: Djoser (9) – 60% confidence
Place: Bang And A Boom (6) – 55% confidence
Show: Sark (2) – 50% confidence
Alternative: Prince Of Memphis (4) – 40% confidence

Race notes: Analysts divide between class-dropping Djoser (9) and improving Bang And A Boom (6) for the top, while Sark (2) and Prince Of Memphis (4) are anchoring many underneath constructions and Yellow Jacket (8) gets selective support. Other runners include: Chances Taken (1), Pure Cane Sugar (3), King Of The Disco (5), Gate Guard (7), Yellow Jacket (8).

Race 8 – Maiden Claiming – 1210Y Dirt – Purse not listed

Win: Denada (2) – 70% confidence
Place: Circle Of Fire (8) – 60% confidence
Show: Hazael (9) – 45% confidence
Alternative: My Cherry Pie (1) – 35% confidence

Race notes: Denada (2) commands clear preference off reliable local form with Circle Of Fire (8) universally viewed as the primary danger, while Hazael (9) and My Cherry Pie (1) appeal as stalking types who can grab a piece late. Other runners include: Chipada (3), Score For Alice (4), Itsgrandsalamitime (5), Magic Authority (6), Just A Hunch (7).

Recommended Exotic Plays by Race

Race 1 – Analysts tend to key Tell America (6) over Higher Heat (3) and Cha Chings Chick (1) in exactas and trifectas, using Rr Favorite Power (4) as a value-adding fourth horse in superfecta spreads.

Race 2 – A common structure is Four Sweet Kid (6) as a strong single in the win slot over combinations of Triple D Governor (3), Letsjustsay (1), and Heartache Tonite (2) in exactas and trifectas, with Sweet Fire Wes (5) added to deeper superfecta tickets.

Race 3 – Multi-horse boxes and wheels are favored here, with analysts emphasizing Seas Of Normandy (3), Vekoma Kid (6), Fireman Dan (2), and Evanderkeen (4) in various exacta and trifecta combinations rather than leaning on a single.

Race 4 – Many exotic approaches key Velocious (2) on top and spread underneath with Sharp Attitude (3), Machina (4), and Miracle Ball (5), while occasionally sneaking in A Real Jewel (1) for superfecta coverage at a price.

Race 5 – John Dunbar (4) is widely treated as a likely key in win and daily double slots, with exactas and trifectas commonly built 4 over 5, 2, 7 and deeper superfectas extending to Freeze 'em (3) and Peso (6).

Race 6 – Riding By (8) often forms the backbone of Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets, while exacta and trifecta constructions revolve around 8 with The Man The Myth (6), Hacksaw Mountain (5), Supersonic Me (7), and occasionally Regarding Harry (1).

Race 7 – Vertical exotics tend to revolve around Djoser (9) and Bang And A Boom (6) on top, with Sark (2), Prince Of Memphis (4), and Yellow Jacket (8) forming rotating underneath pieces in exactas, trifectas, and superfectas.

Race 8 – Denada (2) is a frequent single in win-based exotics, while exactas and trifectas are commonly structured 2 with 8 and 9, then spreading to My Cherry Pie (1), Itsgrandsalamitime (5), and Just A Hunch (7) to catch an upset underneath.

Value Play Observations

Several analysts' rankings suggest that horses like Rr Favorite Power (4) in Race 1 and Heartache Tonite (2) in Race 2 may be used more defensively than their prior form and potential odds might warrant, indicating possible overlays in vertical exotics if the public underestimates them.

In Race 3, Fireman Dan (2) often appears as a secondary pick despite competitive recent efforts, suggesting that if morning line odds drift upward he could offer win and exacta value relative to his consensus inclusion rate.

Race 4's A Real Jewel (1) appears in fewer top slots than Velocious (2) yet attracts specific mention from some analysts, which could make A Real Jewel (1) a useful price horse to boost exacta and trifecta payouts if ignored by the crowd.

In Race 5, John Dunbar (4) is a consensus standout and may be underlaid on the board, whereas Standard Of Proof (2) and Drinking Again (5) seem likely to be better value relative to their strong presence in place/show and alternative slots.

Race 6 shapes as a potential value environment beyond Riding By (8), with Supersonic Me (7) and Hacksaw Mountain (5) receiving solid analyst respect that might not be fully reflected in mutuel prices if bettors focus on the chalk pair.

The closing Race 8 looks ripe for price plays underneath Denada (2) and Circle Of Fire (8), with Hazael (9) and Itsgrandsalamitime (5) highlighted enough by analysts that an odds drift on either would create overlay potential in exactas and trifectas.

Overall Wagering Strategy

Across this Turf Paradise card, the strongest consensus races appear to be Race 2 with Four Sweet Kid (6), Race 5 with John Dunbar (4), Race 6 with Riding By (8), and Race 8 with Denada (2), each drawing high-confidence support as the most likely winners. These runners profile as logical keys in win bets, daily doubles, and as singles on multi-race tickets, especially where their tactical positions and recent form align with projected pace scenarios. In contrast, races such as Race 3 and Race 7 show more split opinion, with multiple plausible win candidates sharing analyst support and indicating a need for broader coverage or contrarian stances to capitalize on the uncertainty.

For multi-race sequences, constructing Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets around the strong consensus anchors in Races 2, 5, 6, and 8 can lower ticket complexity while still taking advantage of their perceived edge. A common structural approach would be to single Four Sweet Kid (6) in Race 2, spread moderately in Race 3, then lean on Velocious (2) or John Dunbar (4) as additional keys in the mid-card sequences. Similarly, late Pick 3 or Pick 4 tickets can use Riding By (8) and Denada (2) as central singles while widening around Djoser (9), Bang And A Boom (6), Sark (2), and Prince Of Memphis (4) in Race 7 to balance reliability and upside.

Exotic value opportunities are most evident in the more open affairs where analysts' rankings fan out across several horses, particularly Races 3, 4, 6, and 7. In these spots, structuring superfecta and trifecta tickets with a short top tier but a deeper supporting cast underneath can capture upset potential at a manageable cost, for example by keying one or two consensus leaders in the win position and then spreading with two to four additional runners beneath. With warm, dry conditions and a fast surface expected, track bias is not projected to be extreme, but early speed figures and forward tactical placement still appear to be rewarded on both dirt and turf based on the types of horses analysts favor, so pace scenarios should be weighed heavily when fine-tuning wagers.

From a strategic standpoint, bettors may wish to prioritize using the strongest consensus horses as structural keys while selectively pressing in races where their own figures or trip notes reveal divergences from analyst sentiment. At the same time, taking calculated swings with value-oriented underneath horses identified in the analysis—particularly in the more contentious races—can enhance return profiles without requiring overly large investments. The key is to align bet size and ticket complexity with the confidence gradients implied by consensus percentages, leaning into high-confidence races for more aggressive singles and adopting broader coverage and contrarian constructions in split-opinion spots.

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