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Race 1 – Maiden Claiming, 6 1/2 furlongs Dirt, purse approximately 43000
Win: Marajoline (No. 5) – 83% Confidence
Place: Doppio Espresso (No. 6) – 67% Confidence
Show: Asking (No. 1) – 50% Confidence
Alternative: Karey (No. 4) – 17% Confidence
Notes:
Pick Pony analysts see Marajoline as the key filly, landing on her in five of six independent selections and often in the win slot. Doppio Espresso draws heavy support as well but shows up more often underneath, suggesting a strong exacta anchor with some minor form concerns from the last outing. Asking has consistent backing as a logical board hitter, while Karey projects as a fringe player who could make the superfecta at a price if pace dynamics soften up front.
Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight, 1 mile Dirt, purse approximately 80000
Win: Lady Delilah (No. 3) – 83% Confidence
Place: On a Summer Day (No. 2) – 67% Confidence
Show: Morgana’s Moment (No. 1) – 33% Confidence
Alternative: Princess Wadadli (No. 5) – 33% Confidence
Notes:
Lady Delilah is a very strong consensus choice, singled on top by multiple analysts and ranked first by both human handicappers and one algorithmic model. On a Summer Day is a clear second preference with a blend of win, place, and show support, hinting that the filly is knocking on the door. Morgana’s Moment and Princess Wadadli are viewed as secondary players but both appear on multiple tickets, making them important coverage horses in multi-race wagers. The overall tone marks this as a relatively soft state-bred maiden where trip and tactics could shuffle the order behind the favorite.
Race 3 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/8 miles Dirt, purse approximately 88000
Win: Double Your Money (No. 6) – 67% Confidence
Place: Dreamlike (No. 7) – 50% Confidence
Show: Valentinian (No. 4) – 50% Confidence
Alternative: Whittington Park (No. 1) – 33% Confidence
Notes:
Double Your Money is the clear consensus top choice, singled on top by several analysts and consistently rated above the rest in expected finish tables. Dreamlike and Valentinian both have broad support but Dreamlike holds more true win votes, so analysts lean to that runner as the main upset or exacta partner. Whittington Park attracts attention from one analyst as a top pick and appears in deeper algorithmic rankings, making him a sneaky late inclusion in trifecta and superfecta structures. The race shape projects as competitive, with multiple pace and stalking options, so minor fluctuations in trip could decide the minor placings.
Race 4 – Maiden Special Weight, 1 mile Dirt, purse approximately 80000
Win: Margarita Molly (No. 4) – 83% Confidence
Place: Fabian’s Princess (No. 2) – 83% Confidence
Show: Raynham Hall (No. 1) – 50% Confidence
Alternative: Bernina Express (No. 6) – 33% Confidence
Notes:
This is one of the most polarized races on the card, with Margarita Molly and Fabian’s Princess dominating the discussion and appearing on nearly every ticket near the top. Margarita Molly earns more outright win endorsements, especially from analysts emphasizing recent progression and projected pace setup, while Fabian’s Princess is widely respected off her debut figure but not quite as universally trusted for the top spot. Raynham Hall repeatedly lands in the top two for one model and receives multiple human endorsements, suggesting a solid floor but perhaps a slightly lower ceiling. Bernina Express projects as a late-running type who could grab a share if the pair up front soften each other through the lane.
Race 5 – Starter Allowance, 1 mile Dirt, purse approximately 65000
Win: Sassy Princess (No. 9) – 83% Confidence
Place: Melle Mel (No. 7) – 67% Confidence
Show: Sassafrassness (No. 1) – 50% Confidence
Alternative: Kadena (No. 5) – 33% Confidence
Notes:
Despite Melle Mel drawing strong praise for her last-out win, the broader consensus leans slightly toward Sassy Princess as the most reliable overall performer, with five of six analysts including her prominently and several placing her first or second. Sassafrassness is a key value contender: multiple analysts make her their top choice at a decent price, which suggests she is outrunning her morning line. Kadena repeatedly shows up as a fourth choice or deeper exotic inclusion and projects to be most useful as a superfecta stabilizer. Overall, Pick Pony analysts see this as a deep, formful race in which the three consensus standouts separate clearly from the rest.
Race 6 – Maiden Claiming, 6 1/2 furlongs Dirt, purse approximately 38000
Win: Baseball Lady (No. 6) – 100% Confidence
Place: Makealittlelove (No. 1) – 67% Confidence
Show: Island Charm (No. 3) – 67% Confidence
Alternative: Sassy Sats (No. 4) – 33% Confidence
Notes:
Baseball Lady stands out as the strongest single on the entire card, appearing in the top tier for every analyst and landing as the primary win pick in most views. Makealittlelove and Island Charm are tightly matched co-second choices, with the former drawing more outright win votes and the latter a touch more underneath support; both look like must-use horses in exactas and multi-race spreads. Sassy Sats appears as a fringe player in several models and narrative writeups and shapes up as a usable booster for deeper trifectas. The consensus is that this is a race to lean heavily on the top three and avoid getting too creative beyond them.
Race 7 – Claiming, 1 mile Dirt, purse approximately 45000
Win: Aggregation (No. 8) – 83% Confidence
Place: Tizmarkus (No. 5) – 50% Confidence
Show: Peek (No. 11) – 33% Confidence
Alternative: Lotsa Trouble (No. 6) – 33% Confidence
Notes:
Aggregation is a clear consensus standout, strongly preferred on top and appearing in the top three for almost every analyst, including the more data-driven projections. Tizmarkus is the main alternative and is singled on top in more than one view, suggesting a legitimate threat to upset if the race flow favors his style. Peek is an interesting longshot: some analysts make him their top selection while others slide him down the rankings, but the overall pattern says he is live at likely double-digit odds. Lotsa Trouble appears consistently in the top tier and profiles as a logical underneath key who could improve second off the bench.
Race 8 – Maiden Claiming, 1 mile Dirt, purse approximately 35000
Win: Dr. Insel (No. 6) – 83% Confidence
Place: Thorsness (No. 1) – 67% Confidence
Show: Sequential (No. 10) – 67% Confidence
Alternative: Down the Line (No. 3) – 17% Confidence
Notes:
The closing maiden has a tight three-way consensus cluster: Dr. Insel earns slightly more total mentions and a mix of win and strong underneath support, which nudges him into the top slot. Thorsness and Sequential are both highly regarded, but Thorsness gains the edge on win endorsements, while Sequential is often projected as a logical favorite who may be overbet relative to his true edge. Down the Line is the only other horse to appear in multiple higher-ranked lists, most notably as a secondary choice from one analyst, making him an interesting superfecta and back-door trifecta candidate at a price.
Recommended Exotic Plays by Race
Race 1
Pick Pony analysts recommend keying Marajoline over Doppio Espresso and Asking in exactas and trifectas, using Karey sparingly in the third and fourth positions for coverage. Vertical structures can revolve around Marajoline on top, with Doppio Espresso as the primary underneath key and Asking as the most likely to complete the trifecta.
Race 2
Given the strong consensus on Lady Delilah, a straightforward exacta and trifecta structure focusing on Lady Delilah over On a Summer Day and Morgana’s Moment is preferred, with Princess Wadadli used as a saver in the third slot. Multi-race wagers can lean on Lady Delilah as a primary single while using On a Summer Day as backup coverage in horizontal bets.
Race 3
A box or weighted exacta around Double Your Money and Dreamlike is recommended, with Valentinian and Whittington Park slotted mainly in the third and fourth positions of trifectas and superfectas. For bettors seeking separation, a trifecta structure that keys Double Your Money on top while spreading underneath with Dreamlike, Valentinian, Bramito, and Whittington Park can exploit any late-race chaos.
Race 4
In this polarized event, Pick Pony analysts favor a cold exacta and core trifecta base of Margarita Molly over Fabian’s Princess, then Raynham Hall in the third spot. Bernina Express can be rotated into the bottom of trifectas and superfectas for added price potential, especially if an early duel develops between the two main fillies.
Race 5
This race sets up well for more aggressive exotic strategies. Sassy Princess and Melle Mel form the core exacta axis, with Sassafrassness as the key value overlay to use heavily in trifecta and superfecta slots. A recommended structure is to key Sassy Princess and Melle Mel on top while using Sassafrassness and Kadena in second and third positions, allowing for multiple combinations that can return well if the consensus choices fill the frame.
Race 6
With Baseball Lady a near-unanimous standout, exactas that key Baseball Lady over Makealittlelove and Island Charm are strongly recommended. A narrow trifecta approach using Baseball Lady over Makealittlelove and Island Charm, with Sassy Sats underneath for third and fourth, concentrates bankroll on the most likely outcome while still allowing for mild price enhancement.
Race 7
Pick Pony analysts favor building trifectas around Aggregation as the central key, with Tizmarkus and Peek as the primary supporting cast and Lotsa Trouble as a strong fourth-position candidate. For more aggressive players, a trifecta wheel that keys Aggregation on top and spreads with Tizmarkus, Peek, Lotsa Trouble, and Create Trouble underneath can capture a healthy return if one of the longer-priced closers sneaks into the frame.
Race 8
Recommended exotics revolve around a three-pronged core of Dr. Insel, Thorsness, and Sequential. Exactas can key Dr. Insel over Thorsness and Sequential, while trifectas emphasize that trio with Down the Line and Seeker’s Hope rotated into the third and fourth positions. Where budget allows, Dr. Insel can be singled in late multi-race sequences with Thorsness and Sequential used defensively as backup coverage.
Value Play Observations
Race 1
Karey and Lucky Lucky Me show up in only a minority of selections but appear high in at least one analyst’s order and could offer value if the pace collapses or the main contenders underperform. Clarividente is another fringe runner who appears in one algorithmic top three and could spice up superfectas at a big price.
Race 2
Morgana’s Moment profiles as an appealing value play, drawing multiple top-three mentions despite a relatively generous morning line, especially from one analyst who places her first. Endless Kiss is also highlighted by one model as a strong underneath value, particularly for trifectas and superfectas if the top pair falter late.
Race 3
Whittington Park and Bramito rate as interesting overlays in a field dominated by the top trio. Whittington Park is a top selection for one analyst and repeatedly appears in the second tier of rankings, suggesting that he may be overlooked on the board compared to his true win probability. Bramito, often pegged for minor awards, offers value in second and third positions in vertical wagers.
Race 4
Raynham Hall is a classic value candidate: a frequent win pick for one model and consistently ranked just behind the two main favorites, likely at a better price than either of them. Bernina Express also carries some sneaky appeal as a late-running type in a race where several main contenders prefer to be forwardly placed.
Race 5
Sassafrassness is one of the clearest value overlays on the card, being placed on top by multiple analysts in a race where another runner draws more attention as the likely favorite. Kadena, repeatedly flagged for fourth, could outrun her consensus projection if the early pace turns more contested than expected, especially given her consistent appearance as a reliable underneath piece.
Race 6
Sassy Sats appears only on the fringes of most tickets but projects as a possible price horse that can sneak into the trifecta if the main trio encounters traffic or regression. Battle Rifle and Ms. Emmaculate appear deeper in algorithmic rankings and could be used sparingly in the bottom of large superfecta structures for bettors chasing big payouts.
Race 7
Peek is a notable longshot value: made a top pick by more than one analyst despite likely going off at a double-digit price, and repeatedly considered a live closer in a field with several pace elements. Legal Deal and Create Trouble also rate as potential value pieces, as they are upgraded by certain models relative to likely public perception and appear capable of slipping into the exacta or trifecta if the race shape becomes chaotic.
Race 8
Down the Line is the main late value angle, appearing as a prominent secondary choice from one analyst despite likely being overlooked in the wagering. Seeker’s Hope and Grand Commander are also flagged by data-driven projections as plausible underneath participants who can enhance trifecta and superfecta returns if they grab minor awards behind the main trio.
These observations, consensus rankings, and exotic structures reflect how Pick Pony analysts would approach the Aqueduct December 14 card from a theoretical standpoint, combining multiple independent expert views into a unified, race-by-race wagering framework.
