Pick Pony Tip Sheet – Expert picks for Churchill Downs, November 28, 2025.


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Pick Pony takes pride in providing the most accurate expert picks available today. Pick Pony Expert Picks are carefully selected by our team of analysts based on analytics from our advanced Past Performance Sheets and Racing Forms. For potential longshot selections, check out Pick Pony's AI Picks.

Race 1 – Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Dirt, $48,000

Win: 7 – Loving Mischief (64% confidence)
Place: 9 – Lady Upstart (64% confidence)🥇
Show: 2 – Don'tmindifido (45% confidence)
Alternative: 4 – Divine Celina (36% confidence)🥈

Loving Mischief shows strength across analyst community following placement credentials and top trainer representation. Strong support converges on Lady Upstart as formidable challenger presenting each-way value. Trainers' form cycles and jockey consistency suggest efficient execution for Don'tmindifido in third position.


Race 2 – Maiden Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles, Dirt, $67,000

Win: 6 – Tizmatic (50% confidence)
Place: 1 – Hot Gossip (50% confidence)🥈
Show: 3 – Knickleandime (38% confidence)🥇
Alternative: 8 – Sea Zest (25% confidence)

Competitive balance emerges with Tizmatic and Hot Gossip receiving nearly equal consideration. Draw position favors Hot Gossip significantly while Tizmatic demonstrates technical superiority following improved condition. Knickleandime presents layoff value option with previous placement credentials supporting competitive positioning through extended distance.


Race 3 – Allowance, 1 Mile, Dirt, $127,000 BOXED TRIFECTA

Win: 6 – Ivory And Ebony (50% confidence)🥈
Place: 2 – Necessity (60% confidence)🥇
Show: 3 – Colonial Rose (40% confidence)🥉
Alternative: 7 – Trusty Troutman (30% confidence)

Analyst coverage diverges across three top contenders suggesting competitive balance. Ivory and Ebony commands narrow preference based on consistent placement record and winning credentials at Saratoga. Necessity advances as strong alternative following five-week layoff and favorable placement trend. Colonial Rose presents recent maiden breakthrough at this track supporting continued advancement.


Race 4 – Claiming $25,000, 1 Mile, Dirt, $64,000

Win: 4 – Mercy Warren (56% confidence)
Place: 6 – Up On The Edge (33% confidence)
Show: 3 – Minnesota Munny (67% confidence)🥇
Alternative: 9 – Thestral (22% confidence)🥈

Mercy Warren receives majority analyst backing as standout contender between top selections. Up On The Edge presents layoff concerns despite impressive historical record and trainer consistency. Minnesota Munny commands overwhelming show confidence reflecting strong campaign credentials with four victories from nine attempts and latest successful effort.


Race 5 – Claiming $25,000, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt, $64,000

Win: 6 – Finster (38% confidence)
Place: 3 – Swaggish (38% confidence)🥈
Show: 1 – Farm Team (25% confidence)
Alternative: 11 – Five O' Somewhere (38% confidence)

Uncertainty characterizes predictions reflecting divided analyst opinion among multiple contenders. Finster advances despite resume concerns following recent Churchill Downs competition when returning. Swaggish demonstrates competitive form from New York racing history supporting viable possibility. Five O' Somewhere enters consideration with consecutive Churchill Downs victories establishing recent form pattern supporting each-way positioning.


Race 6 – Allowance Optional Claiming $80,000, 1 1/8 Miles, Turf, $134,000 WIN

Win: 6 – Weighted Average (60% confidence)🥇
Place: 1 – Fixin To Bee (40% confidence)
Show: 2 – Miss Authentic (40% confidence)🥉
Alternative: 5 – Tap The Champagne (20% confidence)🥈

Weighted Average commands consideration impossible to overlook following impressive maiden breakthrough at this track. Fixin To Bee and Miss Authentic share show opportunity confidence reflecting two-win campaign records with varying experience levels. Tap The Champagne advances as consistent performer maintaining consecutive victories and recent success patterns across multiple venues.


Race 7 – Claiming $12,500, 1 Mile, Dirt, $45,000 WIN ($5.00)

Win: 3 – Lend It Tewmey (67% confidence)🥇
Place: 5 – Texas Red Hot (33% confidence)
Show: 9 – Eastside Cool (56% confidence)🥉
Alternative: 8 – Master Game (33% confidence)

Lend It Tewmey maintains clear consensus preference following eleven-week absence and immediate Churchill Downs victory. Texas Red Hot presents significant challenge through late-running success pattern and return to non-metro competition. Eastside Cool advances with strong supporting confidence based on competitive form and previous winning pattern at Churchill Downs.


Race 8 – Starter Allowance, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt, $62,000

Win: 8 – Mezcalifornia (63% confidence)
Place: 7 – Miss Ellary (50% confidence)🥈
Show: 3 – Carolina Candy (38% confidence)
Alternative: 4 – Miss Elle (25% confidence)🥇

Mezcalifornia commands considerable analyst majority with consistent show positioning throughout recent campaign. Miss Ellary advances with narrow defeat credentials supporting competitive ability and first extended distance attempt. Carolina Candy maintains competitive positioning through multiple Churchill Downs appearances despite inability to achieve victory, suggesting show-level positioning probability.


Race 9 – Claiming $30,000, 7 Furlongs, Dirt, $62,000

Win: 3 – Sand Street (38% confidence)
Place: 6 – Major Dax (38% confidence)🥉
Show: 10 – Gallo De Fuego (25% confidence)
Alternative: 4 – Air Cav (25% confidence)

Uncertainty prevails with three-way analyst split supporting multiple contenders at relatively equal confidence levels. Sand Street presents testing proposition following maiden victory at favorable odds with prior Churchill Downs success. Major Dax presents genuine return opportunity following extended layoff and soft track competition. Gallo De Fuego advances with moderate confidence reflecting emerging form trend and trainer consistency.


Race 10 – Mrs. Revere Stakes (Grade II), 1 1/16 Miles, Turf, $300,000 WIN + BOXED TRIFECTA

Win: 1 – Lush Lips (89% confidence)🥇
Place: 4 – Classic Q (44% confidence)🥉
Show: 2 – Fast Market (33% confidence)
Alternative: 10 – Pretty Picture (22% confidence)🥈

Overwhelming consensus centers on Lush Lips demonstrating exceptional analyst alignment at Grade 2 stakes level. Grade 1 victory credentials and accumulated winning record establish clear competitive superiority. Classic Q presents secondary consideration with solid campaign credentials and recent placement at Keeneland. Fast Market advances following recent Grade 3 Pebbles victory supporting competitive positioning despite quick turnaround from Sands Pointe contest.


Race 11 – Clark Stakes (Grade II), 1 1/8 Miles, Dirt, $600,000

Win: 3 – Hit Show (56% confidence)🥈
Place: 4 – Gosger (67% confidence)
Show: 9 – Magnitude (44% confidence)🥇
Alternative: 2 – First Mission (33% confidence)

Hit Show commands slight win advantage through recent victory pattern and strong current form despite analyst division. Gosger attracts overwhelming place confidence reflecting competitive credentials and trainer consistency. Magnitude advances with respectable support as emerging competitor among three-year-old cohort competing against older horses. First Mission presents alternative consideration following recent Churchill Downs victory and continued competitiveness in higher-level company.


Race 12 – Maiden, 6 Furlongs, Dirt, $120,000

Win: 4 – Sea Vista (38% confidence)🥈
Place: 2 – Pitkin (50% confidence)
Show: 8 – Mizzou (38% confidence)🥉
Alternative: 6 – Vital Mind (25% confidence)🥇

Depth presents considerable handicapping challenge with analyst support distributed across multiple contenders reflecting competitive balance. Sea Vista commands modest win confidence following extended layoff period and middling recent performance. Pitkin advances with place preference following significant absence and modest return credentials. Mizzou maintains competitive positioning despite layoff concerns through favorable placement trend and non-metro Saturday competition adjustment advantage.


Exotic Betting Plays & Value Recommendations

Pick Pony analysts identify the following exotic opportunities based on consensus predictions and analyst alignment patterns across multiple sources:

Grade 2 Stakes Value Play – Race 10 (Mrs. Revere Stakes): Lush Lips commands overwhelming support at nearly 7-to-5 morning line odds with 89% analyst confidence establishing clear value play. Secondary consideration for trifecta players includes Classic Q and Fast Market creating technical overlay opportunity at likely higher odds.

Race 11 (Clark Stakes) Exacta Opportunity: Hit Show and Gosger reverse combinations present value proposition based on analyst opinion distribution. Magnitude represents potential upset consideration at competitive odds given three-year-old status against older competition and 44% analyst support suggesting undervaluation.

Race 7 (Claiming $12,500) Pick 3 Sequence: Lend It Tewmey demonstrates exceptional consensus support at 67% confidence with clear technical advantage supporting layoff return credentials. Texas Red Hot and Eastside Cool create complementary exacta box opportunities.

Race 1 (Maiden Claiming) Daily Double Opener: Loving Mischief attracts appropriate morning odds with 64% analyst consensus and strong trainer credentials. Pair with Race 2 Hot Gossip for secondary coverage or alternative Tizmatic to increase return probability across opening sequences.

Race 5 & 6 Pick 2 Combination: Finster and Five O' Somewhere create multiplier opportunity despite moderate confidence levels reflecting depth in both contests. Weighted Average establishes dominant turf preference supporting continuation through Race 6 structure.

Trifecta Recommendations:

  • Race 3: 6-2-3 box with Ivory and Ebony, Necessity, Colonial Rose creates value accumulation based on distributed analyst opinion
  • Race 8: 8-7-3 line with Mezcalifornia, Miss Ellary, Carolina Candy establishes strong consensus support with competitive odds probability
  • Race 4: 4-6-3 format pairing Mercy Warren, Up On The Edge, Minnesota Munny creates conservative approach with high confidence base

Analysts note particular value in maiden claiming sequences where extended layoffs and trainer form cycles present overlay opportunities relative to published odds. Track bias toward speed and late-running styles should factor into parlay construction given dirt surface and moderate distance parameters across Friday's program.

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